Official JN Schottenheimer Discussion Thread

[SenorGato]

Gato, you should be hoping Schotty finds another home. Then we'll truly get to see if Sanchez is the problem and if Schotty can perform regardless of the circumstances.

Yeah that's how it works...It's unlikely as a 2nd year player like Sanchez will improve moving forward, regardless of who's coaching him.

Sanchez is a major part of this years "issues" (as insignificant as they are...or would be if we didn't just lose two whole games in a row) because he's a 2nd year, inexperienced guy...Not because he actually projects to be a sh*tty QB.

[Smashmouth]

Gato I have a question for you. Since you seem so dead set on Shiity why don't you give us a little compilation of his success in the NFL. You keep sticking up for the guy with no real explanation as to why. Everyone here knows its not 100 % sh*ttys fault but the bottom line is he has control of the offense loaded with Skill players and a very solid O-Line yet he cant produce. Tell me, on what do you base you arguement ?? Ive seen A LOT of sarcasm and smart a$$ remarks in his defense but no real substance.

[SenorGato]

Gato I have a question for you. Since you seem so dead set on Shiity why don't you give us a little compilation of his success in the NFL. You keep sticking up for the guy with no real explanation as to why. Everyone here knows its not 100 % sh*ttys fault but the bottom line is he has control of the offense loaded with Skill players and a very solid O-Line yet he cant produce. Tell me, on what do you base you arguement ?? Ive seen A LOT of sarcasm and smart a$$ remarks in his defense but no real substance.

I have...at least a million times...each time it's thrown out...Please stop telling me I don't explain myself because I go out of my way to explain myself...over...and over...and over...and over again. I cannot help that they fall in deaf ears...read one of the thousands of Schotty threads...there's a couple this week alone where I felt I made some decent arguments.

Sarcasm and smart a$$ remarks are crutches...Just me being dramatic because I see most of the Schotty whining as ridiculous overreactions to things that happen all the time all over the league but somehow get treated as special, and terrible, events specific only to the Jets.

[Smashmouth]

I have...at least a million times...each time it's thrown out...Please stop telling me I don't explain myself because I go out of my way to explain myself...over...and over...and over...and over again. I cannot help that they fall in deaf ears...read one of the thousands of Schotty threads...there's a couple this week alone where I felt I made some decent arguments.

Sarcasm and smart a$$ remarks are crutches...Just me being dramatic because I see most of the Schotty whining as ridiculous overreactions to things that happen all the time all over the league but somehow get treated as special, and terrible, events specific only to the Jets.

Ive read your posts gato and I see more blame being laid on the players as an excuse rather than actual accomplishments by Shotty. Maybe there are a few tid bits here and there from you on his so called success but Im guessing its not much.

The way I see it, if you dont see the predictability by now you never will. Shotty has had 5 years to produce an offense that was not boring and inept and he has failed. Even some of the worst offenses in the NFL produce a great game every now and then and create mismatches. We never do, and Im attributing our players always being covered on poor play design and bad timing. We never keep the defense off balance and they always seem to know whats coming. Another thing to keep in mind is Shotty is so predictable with his calls it might also explain why Sanchez was so efficient in the beginning of the season and now it seems the defenses we face read damn near every play we run since they now have a body of work to read in the film room. Is it Sanchez' fault that seems to be happening ? How else would you explain him completely collapsing ?

When he runs the hurry up all of a sudden he becomes deadly accurate. Why is that Gato ?? Sure this week our recievers let us down because in the hurry up at the end of the game Sanchez was right on target with every throw, but why do we have to always be in that position ? Like I said when we were winning all those 4th quarter and OT games you cant keep winning like this, you cant be predictable for 3 1/2 quarters then turn it on and expect it to work every week. So why is he deadly accurate in this hurry up but horrible in the regular offense ? Could it be because the Defense cant sit back and read the play like they do during the game ??

This is a disturbing trend that was very evident during ALL our comback victories. Can you just dismiss that as luck or is it becoming a fact and a telling sign that our base offense is horribly predictable and the game plan is called about as bad as it can be ?

This team needs a new coaching staff on Offense and not only Shott I think Cavanaugh and Ellard need to be sent packing as well.

[SenorGato]

Ive read your posts gato and I see more blame being laid on the players as an excuse

Possibly I'll address the whole post later...but how in the hell is blaming the players for poor player an excuse for the OC?

When he runs the hurry up all of a sudden he becomes deadly accurate. Why is that Gato ??

My guess? I'm going out on the limb and saying that they practice the 2 minute drill often.

Please note that you're one of the first to complain when we go into a no huddle and Sanchez isn't "deadly accurate."

[Jetsfan80]

Possibly I'll address the whole post later...but how in the hell is blaming the players for poor player an excuse for the OC?

Because he's responsible for the entire unit. You never hesitate to blame Rex when the defense plays badly, so why does Schotty get a reprieve? Just how much 1st round talent do we need to give Schotty before you can say the players don't suck, he does?

[Sperm Edwards]

This team needs a new coaching staff on Offense and not only Shott I think Cavanaugh and Ellard need to be sent packing as well.

Ellard? How can you say that? Our receivers do such a great job. They never drop the ball, get separation with ease, and always catch the ball with their hands.

[Jetsfan_always]

The result of this awful OC has been shown on the scoreboard week after week, 9 points against the Ravens, shutout - at home, no less - against GB, 3 points against the Pats, and now 6 points against the Dolphins.

We also have railed against the idiotic play calling such as the wildcat/seminole whatever you call it disrupting the rhythm of Sanchez and the offense, along with highly questionable calls during key moments. While all of the offensive woes cannot be entirely blamed on the OC - Sanchez has been just awful at times, and receivers dropping balls - there is empirical evidence why Schottenhiemer needs to be let go:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703727804576018021080733978.html?KEYWORDS=new+york+jets

"The Jets Have Become Very Predictable on First Down"

If a sports journalist has taken note of this, imagine how much earlier the DC of their opponents have done so? 2 years ago, if not more?

[visajets]

"The Jets Have Become Very Predictable on First Down"

If a sports journalist has taken note of this, imagine how much earlier the DC of their opponents have done so? 2 years ago, if not more?

How about "all downs".

[Jetsfan80]

The Packers themselves pointed to how predictable we were on game film before they played us and shut us out.

If that wasn't an indictment on Schottenheimer I don't know what is. Sanchez and the players deserve a chunk of the blame but ultimately it is Schottenheimer's unit to run, and he is doing a shi*ty job of it.

[BroadwayJoe12]

It's funny because Schotty during his countless interviews has even said: paraphrasing, 'everyone has a trend or certain style they tend to run. it's my job to figure out my trends and change them etc.' Obviously everyone has a certain style to their calling a game, but I don't know if it's because he's hamstrung by nacho or what, but his seem even more evident than the other OCs I've seen. Hopefully something gets done, because coupled with the lack of execution, this offense is anemic.

[CTM]

I really think this is rex more then schitty

[nyjets89]

Rex is part of the problem for no gametime adjustments, but its mostly schott. When we are at our own dam 30 yard line and its 3rd and 5, you dont run the friggan wildcat or seminole whatever they call it. you have to pass the ball, schott is so predictable

[visajets]

Or when you are 3rd and 2 and instead of running you throw,or when your 3rd and 15 and you throw a pass 1 yd off the line of scrimmage. Bottom line the play calling sucks.

[Jet27]

Or when you are 3rd and 2 and instead of running you throw,or when your 3rd and 15 and you throw a pass 1 yd off the line of scrimmage. Bottom line the play calling sucks.

Lets see if the HC takes control this week. Lets see if the OC makes changes to the scheme.

Lets see if all the Bravado we have been force fed that we are going to super bowl is backed up this week.

How about this, lets see a solid game on all fronts which is indicative of a well prepared, practiced and coached team to face a very tough opponent this coming sunday.

Oh and by the way we are 0-7 at Pitt!

[SMC]

I wish it was Schitty who tripped Carroll.

[visajets]

If I were Sanchez and these ridiculous plays were called in,id change them on the spot and say the hell with this.

[nyjets89]

What the Jets should do is fire Schott and hire Josh McDaniels, he does know the Patriots offense btw. Not that we are facing them anytime soon but he did good with NE, i dont see Schott end up calling good plays against Pittsburgh or Chicago.

[visajets]

What the Jets should do is fire Schott and hire Josh McDaniels, he does know the Patriots offense btw. Not that we are facing them anytime soon but he did good with NE, i dont see Schott end up calling good plays against Pittsburgh or Chicago.

Agreed

[JustInFudge]

The result of this awful OC has been shown on the scoreboard week after week, 9 points against the Ravens, shutout - at home, no less - against GB, 3 points against the Pats, and now 6 points against the Dolphins.

We also have railed against the idiotic play calling such as the wildcat/seminole whatever you call it disrupting the rhythm of Sanchez and the offense, along with highly questionable calls during key moments. While all of the offensive woes cannot be entirely blamed on the OC - Sanchez has been just awful at times, and receivers dropping balls - there is empirical evidence why Schottenhiemer needs to be let go:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703727804576018021080733978.html?KEYWORDS=new+york+jets

"The Jets Have Become Very Predictable on First Down"

If a sports journalist has taken note of this, imagine how much earlier the DC of their opponents have done so? 2 years ago, if not more?

The offense has always been predictable...no doubt. And I hate constant run's on first downs. The percentage we do it more than others is pretty ridiculous.

The problem with this article however, is that while the premise is accurate you'd expect the little chart on the bottom of the page to be more damning in the W's vs. L's column. Which its quite the opposite. 3 division leaders, 1 team with a 9-4 record and the Raiders who for their standards are having a great season.

So if I really wanted to, I could take away from this article that teams who run the ball most on first down also are some of the more successful teams in the league. Therefore, its really not good evidence to fire Schotty.

[SenorGato]

"The Jets Have Become Very Predictable on First Down"

Run or pass...not that hard...run or pass on a team that's ALL ABOUT THE GROUNDZ AND POUNDZ and has been a top 3 running game in each of the past 2 seasons...

Nah...that can't be it.

I really think this is rex more then schitty

While I agree with this I also think it's pretty dumb to get on a running offense for trying to run the ball. It's funny how were all about the Groundz n' Poundz until it becomes convenient to say otherwise.

This is pretty much a run the ball and chuck it downfield offense...There's no great mystery to it just as there's no great mystery to what any offense is doing...the Texans will throw to Andre Johnson...the Pats will spread you out...the Dolphins will run the ball...the Bills will pray for rain...the 49ers will run with Gore and try to find Davis/Crabtree in the pass game...the Titans and Vikings will try to overpower you in the trenches then hit their respective WRs downfield...There's no magic, super secret formula. If you tried hard enough, you can pick trends for any offense in the league....Pats pass the ball a sh*tload...Vikings and Titans will run the crap out of the ball...The point is getting the job done.

[Iceman88]

I'm actually really surprised it's only 64%, I would have guessed it was more around 75-80.

I'd really like to see more stats on this whole thing, I wonder how many of those runs were from the Brad-cat or how many throws we're either play-action or out of the shotgun.

Nothing infuriates me more then seeing us throw out of the shotgun on first down when it seems like every defense just expects us to run.

[SenorGato]

I'm actually really surprised it's only 64%, I would have guessed it was more around 75-80.

That was actually my first thought too.

I do think they can/should try a play action on first down...then again it wouldn't surprise me to find out they have and it just didn't work.

[SenorGato]

But it does have something to do with the sample size. The fact that the numbers don't regress makes the additional film even more important because it sheds light on non-quantifiable attributes, be they physical (arm strength in adverse weather) or mental (responses to a terrible INT). With such a limited sample, you have to extrapolate individual plays across a standard college career of 35+ games, which is how you end up handpicking your franchise based on how big he smiles at his pro day. I mean, Sanchez never led a 4th-quarter comeback at USC. The Detroit and Cleveland and Houston games suggest he's not entirely uncomfortable in that situation, but how the hell could the Jets have known that?

IMO scouting QBs at both the NFL and college level has improved significantly. Teams know more about what they want to see out of their QBs, and I think there's a much stronger understanding of technique and mechanics than there ever has been,

Also consider that Sanchez was no unknown...He was a blue chip recruit that received a sh*t ton of hype at USC for being their best QB talent since Palmer...he did not disappoint in his one season of starting and...this one's kinda weak but he did spend his first 2 years at USC practicing with what basically was a JV NFL team....

[jason423]

I really think this is rex more then schitty

It was last season when he decided to take an active role in the offense. But overall this is more or less the same as his norms now that Sanchez has the "rookie chains off"

Here are the Jets 1st down run calls under Schotty

2006- 62.6%

2007- 58.5%

2008- 56.0%

2009- 74.3%

2010- 61.9%

Thats pretty consistent other than 2009. My guess is if you charted the game through Buffalo it was around 65% and then skyrocketed because Rex flipped. I guess its also possible that the Jets have had an inordinate amount of 2 minute drill type 1st down plays that skews the number a bit since you are forced to pass there.

I do think those numbers are kind of high for a team that is filled with passing weapons but I doubt its significantly worse than a team like Jacksonville who believes they are a running team. Even the Chargers run close to 50% of the time on 1st down and they also have an MVP type at QB. I think the bigger issues with the Jets are their short yardage play selections. They throw far too often rather than simply picking up the first and moving the chains. Sanchez throws more often than Phillip Rivers on 2nd and short (<3 yard) plays where the Jets throw almost 21% of the time compared to 7.4% for SD. On 3rd and short the Jets throw 37.5% of the time, a number similar to what the Colts have done in the past, though far lower than SD this season (47.5%). I dont think the Jets should even be close to those numbers when clearly conversions are a problem.

[SenorGato]

^^ 2nd and short really isn't a terrible time for a playaction pass...or really any kind of pass at all.

What do you think should be done? What're the probabilities for converting on 2nd and short with a specific type of run play...run left...run up the middle..run right...draw? 3rd down? Conversions are a problem (possibly, but I trust you to verify what you say), so which are we more successful converting with, the run or the pass? What're the conditions for each?

[GimmeShelter]

Unless we have a decent play-off run Schotty will be gone. You can't get shutout as often as we have TD wise and be so poor in the redzone and not change OC's. He obviously cannot be removed in week 15 and not sure if Callahan could take over the play calling if Rex was bold enough to make that move. It is likely only going to get worse the next two weeks with the caliber of defenses we will be facing. Dunno, maybe spread the field and go into hurry up offense as Sanchez seems comfortable in that fashion. Of course that requires better offensive line play and quick decisions by Sanchez.

[BIG COUNTRY]

With the offense that has been called as of late we will not do well in the playoffs if we make it there. As long as schotty is our OC I am not confident at all in our chances. I was sitting there calling the plays before they happened its so damn predictable.

[SenorGato]

With the offense that has been called as of late we will not do well in the playoffs if we make it there. As long as schotty is our OC I am not confident at all in our chances. I was sitting there calling the plays before they happened its so damn predictable.

I sit back and call the Pats, Colts, Chargers, and Saints offenses all the time...sh*t I can do this for any team...I also will sit watching guys like Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay and call their pitches in real time...for some reason that doesn't stop them from scoring points or getting guys out.

Must be some kind of strange phenomena unique only to them for some reason...

[jason423]

^^ 2nd and short really isn't a terrible time for a playaction pass...or really any kind of pass at all.

What do you think should be done? What're the probabilities for converting on 2nd and short with a specific type of run play...run left...run up the middle..run right...draw? 3rd down? Conversions are a problem (possibly, but I trust you to verify what you say), so which are we more successful converting with, the run or the pass? What're the conditions for each?

Id agree its not a bad time for playaction if it works. On the 2nd and less than 3 plays Mark is only throwing 50%. Its a small sample size, but thats what is being thrown. He averages 4.67YPA. Between 3 and 6 yards he is completing 46.4% of his passes or 4.2YPA.

The running stats are better. One you rarely get non yardage plays. You are either picking up a first or putting yourself in a more manageable first down situation. Tomlinson averages 5.35 YPC and 4.12 YPC in the two scenarios. In both cases that is proving to be smarter than a pass for the team considering the offensive woes. Greene is 4.4 and 3.7.

Here is the other reason you run in some of those spots. On 3rd and those intermediate range (3-6 yards) Sanchez averages a pathetic 40% on his passes. That means 6 out of 10 times you are just done based on his suckiness alone and probably at least 1 more time you are shot because he has to throw under the marker or gets sacked. He is far better than that in the 0-2 yard category where he is at 55.6% and a 6.3 YPA. Greene also averages 3.6 YPC in the 3rd and short giving you a viable running option on those downs. The Jets never run when its between 3 and 6 yards (3 carries 14 pass attempts) which totally eliminates the playaction in those situations which may also lead to his poor performance.

What the Jets are running is almost fine if you have an all pro QB. A guy that is going to complete well over 50% on 3rd<6. But they dont they have a guy that completes around 40%. You cant keep putting him in those spots and expect to win. You have to do what the numbers are telling you not keep calling plays based on an offensive philosophy that the kid isnt playing well in.

[dbatesman]

Also consider that Sanchez was no unknown...He was a blue chip recruit that received a sh*t ton of hype at USC for being their best QB talent since Palmer...he did not disappoint in his one season of starting and...this one's kinda weak but he did spend his first 2 years at USC practicing with what basically was a JV NFL team....

This is entirely the problem. When you only have 16 games' worth of film, there's only so much extrapolation you can do until you're left citing Rivals.com ratings from five years ago.

[Bleedin Green]

I sit back and call the Pats, Colts, Chargers, and Saints offenses all the time...sh*t I can do this for any team...I also will sit watching guys like Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay and call their pitches in real time...for some reason that doesn't stop them from scoring points or getting guys out.

Must be some kind of strange phenomena unique only to them for some reason...

So you think opposing defenses who have described the Jets offense as overly predictable and cited that as a reason for their ability to shut it down are just completely full of sh*t? Or are they just all in on the massive conspiracy that apparently exists throughout the NFL, media and fans to unfairly blame Schotty for five years worth of offensive failures that are in no way whatsoever his fault?

[SenorGato]

This is entirely the problem. When you only have 16 games' worth of film, there's only so much extrapolation you can do until you're left citing Rivals.com ratings from five years ago.

I agree that 16 games is hardly a convenient sample size, and I realize the lack of experience is a very legit knock.

That said...I don't think the Jets just went and took a shot in the dark at Sanchez:

1. I think more and more NFL teams are starting to understand how to scout and develop QBs. Mechanics, technique, and fundamentals are emphasized more than ever, and pro scouts are more capable of differentiating between college offense footwork and mannerisms and the mannerisms of a pro QB. I think teams took a step back after falling for the spread QBs of the late 90's/early 2000's that came into the league and busted.

2. I do not believe that Sanchez just sat around for 3 years at USC before he finally started. USC during the 2000's dominated in the area of coaching. His mechanics and footwork were the best in his draft year by a pretty significant amount. Sure there was only 16 games of tape showing the excellent footwork and mechanics, but if they consistently show up on tape how many games do you really need to see? What of the 2-3 years of practice tape?

3. Sanchez stuck it out at USC. I can't emphasize enough how loaded USC was and possibly still is. Carroll often made his youngest guys wait their turn behind the seniors. They lost alot of talent to transfers because of this. Sanchez sticking it out speaks highly of his character, work ethic, patience, and coach ability...all very important things when looking for a franchise type QB.

So yes...while being a junior and not having 30+ starts in college can be painted as a big deal...you do not get the full picture of Mark Sanchez by just looking at those numbers.

[SenorGato]

So you think opposing defenses who have described the Jets offense as overly predictable and cited that as a reason for their ability to shut it down are just completely full of sh*t? Or are they just all in on the massive conspiracy that apparently exists throughout the NFL, media and fans to unfairly blame Schotty for five years worth of offensive failures that are in no way whatsoever his fault?

No...I think offense is either running the ball or passing the ball...a smart D will know what's coming...a good O will get it done anyway.

Do you honestly want to sit there and tell me that the reason Peyton Manning, Phil Rivers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady succeed is because teams don't know what they'll be doing? Because...yeah...I'm not dumb enough to buy that...and I'm pretty f'ing dumb.

[visajets]

I fully expect the faithful to hang banners and chant Schotte must go at the season finale at the Meadowlands against the Bills.