From GGN: Hack-Inaccurate to a Fault?

[dbatesman]

3 hours ago, Scott Dierking said:

Well, I did find this for his Freshman year. Interesting.

Seems like he sucked balls when it mattered most

[T0mShane]

2 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Seems like he sucked balls when it mattered most

It's in comic sans so you know it's science

[Gangrene]

35 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

My new favorite thing is when people talk about Hackenberg like he had his legs blown off by a surface to air missle and we should all be pulling for him to reclaim his rightful place as an American icon sprint champion.

I was not a fan of the Hackenberg pick, it made no sense but we have nothing to watch this year except Petty, Hack, McCown mud wrestling ...

 let the games begin...

[C Mart]

11 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Seems like he sucked balls when it mattered most

Red zone 11 TDs 1 Int?   4th Qtr 6-2? Yeah that's terrible. 

[Jet9]

5 hours ago, dbatesman said:

JN FLASH POLL: which is funnier?

a.) An adult person not knowing what "to a fault" means

b.) Hackenberg was apparently a sub-55% passer in ******* high school.

Shut up, Evan. Or are you Joe? 

[Jet Nut]

5 hours ago, jgb said:

 

I think it was all Mac. He got snowed by his old buddy O'Brien who was trying to do a final favour for Hack--a kid who stuck at Penn St when he easily could've walked.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

Where did you come up with this?

Macc helped O'Brien pay off Hack for staying at PSU?

Now thats a good one.  LOL

[dbatesman]

10 minutes ago, Jet9 said:

Shut up, Evan. Or are you Joe? 

My name is Legion; for we are many

[jgb]

Where did you come up with this?

Macc helped O'Brien pay off Hack for staying at PSU?

Now thats a good one.  LOL

That's the inherent weakness and strength of opinions. You can hold them, with no evidence, which makes them speculative but also a bit immune to demands of proof.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Jet Nut]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

That's the inherent weakness and strength of opinions. You can hold them, with no evidence, which makes them speculative but also a bit immune to demands of proof.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

Not really, just becomes nonsensical when its as far fetched as this one.  Nothing about this is speculative

[jgb]

 was not a fan of the Hackenberg pick, it made no sense but we have nothing to watch this year except Petty, Hack, McCown mud wrestling ...
 let the games begin...

At this point it is what it is. Throw him out there. At least he isn't a mouth breathing dunce like Geno. So there's that.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[win4ever]

I don't mind the analysis, mainly because there is some legit points made.  I also like that the guy did some decent homework on the subject, which is rare these days.  He does make a weird title because it's an oxymoron.  

However, there is some underlying stats in the article that remain interesting, especially with his accuracy going back to high school.  Hackenberg isn't accurate because he has horrible mechanics.  He has a GREAT arm, but he's leaned on that arm for too long to the point that his footwork is horrible.  If he fixes his footwork, then yes, he can improve.  If he doesn't he isn't going to improve because you just can't throw the ball consistently with his footwork.   I would love to see him in this pre-season and see if there is any progress.  If his footwork hasn't improved much since last season, then start scouting college QBs or hope Petty is the answer.  If it's improved, then we might have some hope.

I believe it was @section314 that mentioned this example in a Hackenberg thread earlier, but it fits perfectly.  Roy Halladay I think set the record for highest ERA by a pitcher with 50 innings, and got demoted to the minors.  I believe they changed his mechanics (main one I could see was that his windup was longer, glove went behind his head) which fine tuned his delivery to make him devastating.  Obviously, a rare care, but bad mechanics can really throw off any player and Hackenberg has consistently shown them through the years.  Even if you go back to his freshman year when everyone was salivating over him, you'll see plenty of bad throws that were made with bad form.  I think a lot of people remember the throw to Robinson in the Michigan game as his signature "I have arrived moment" in college, but it's actually a bad throw.  The only reason it even worked was because the Michigan defender took a bad step going for the interception.  Hackenberg threw that ball with his hips wide open and essentially a 50/50 ball to Robinson, who made a big catch.  

If he can fix those mechanics, sure, we may have something,  If not, then we may as well look at Petty.  

[Fantasy Island]

One positive about Christian Hackenberg is that he wasn't selected in the first round.

[pdxgreen]

I am so sick of the talk about Hack.  I honestly think there are people who have so much invested on him failing just based on their initial opinions.  The media needs to grow up.  He will either show promise or crash and that's it.

[glenn31]

10 hours ago, Scott Dierking said:

(Hackenberg completes 5 passes in a row in a Madden game)

T0mShane: "The programmers adjusted reality so as not to frustrate small children"

This comeback has "jerk store" written all over it. You should have went with "T0mShane: 'Hack finally found a level of football he can actually play in past the age of 18.'"

And if all else fails, you had sex with T0m's wife

[Scott Dierking]

2 hours ago, glenn31 said:

This comeback has "jerk store" written all over it. You should have went with "T0mShane: 'Hack finally found a level of football he can actually play in past the age of 18.'"

And if all else fails, you had sex with T0m's wife

Tom and I have a "special" relationship. Please stop trying to horn in on that and c__k block. 

And where you truly fail is suggesting Tom has a wife, or even has inclinations for that gender persuasion. Not that there is anything wrong with that (keeping with the theme)

[glenn31]

19 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Tom and I have a "special" relationship. Please stop trying to horn in on that and c__k block. 

And where you truly fail is suggesting Tom has a wife, or even has inclinations for that gender persuasion. Not that there is anything wrong with that (keeping with the theme)

My mistake, let me cease butting in on this dance... I'm interrupting the timeless art of seduction

[thadude]

16 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I guess we will see this year.  The fact that he was so terrible last year just sets his benchmark very low so if he even gets to 50% people can trumpet 'improvement!'

Lol

[56mehl56]

12 hours ago, Jet9 said:

Shut up, Evan. Or are you Joe? 

The fact that every other word isn't bro should help you identify

[thadude]

6 hours ago, 56mehl56 said:

The fact that every other word isn't bro should help you identify

Is there going to be better radio than 10am Monday mornings this Fall with Boningo?

[jgb]

12 hours ago, pdxgreen said:

I am so sick of the talk about Hack.  I honestly think there are people who have so much invested on him failing just based on their initial opinions.  The media needs to grow up.  He will either show promise or crash and that's it.

Usually it goes the other way around. There are 0 Jets fans who would secretly hope for Hackenberg to break a leg if he starts playing well because of their "initial opinion." But there are plenty who hung on to defend way too long washouts like Sanchez and Geno in deference to their initial opinions.

[dbatesman]

27 minutes ago, jgb said:

Usually it goes the other way around. There are 0 Jets fans who would secretly hope for Hackenberg to break a leg if he starts playing well because of their "initial opinion." But there are plenty who hung on to defend way to long washouts like Sanchez and Geno in deference to their initial opinions.

 The difference is, the first group, are Bad Fans, and the second group, are Good Fans,

[56mehl56]

28 minutes ago, jgb said:

Usually it goes the other way around. There are 0 Jets fans who would secretly hope for Hackenberg to break a leg if he starts playing well because of their "initial opinion." But there are plenty who hung on to defend way to long washouts like Sanchez and Geno in deference to their initial opinions.

I used to feel that way about Jets fans, now I'm not so sure.

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

 The difference is, the first group, are Bad Fans, and the second group, are Good Fans,

There is a difference between predicting it will rain and hoping it does!

1 minute ago, 56mehl56 said:

I used to feel that way about Jets fans, now I'm not so sure.

I guess I am lucky to have never met a fan like that in all my decades rooting for the Jets!

[Bleedin Green]

15 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

 The difference is, the first group, are Bad Fans, and the second group, are Good Fans,

In the end, both share the common trait of being stupid fans.

We're all still somehow Jets fans after all.

[rangerous]

On 8/9/2017 at 0:38 PM, varjet said:

This is an excellent analysis, and hopefully Macc had the same information when he drafted Hack (and had a plan for dealing with it).

 

https://www.ganggreennation.com/2017/8/8/16116974/ny-jets-inaccurate-to-a-fault

 

Inaccurate to a Fault?

 

by Smackdad  Aug 8, 2017, 11:09pm EDT

•  TWEET

In 2016 27 of 32 NFL teams had completion percentages greater than 59%. The five that did not were the Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers and Carolina Panthers. It is perhaps no coincidence that four of those five teams were last place teams in 2016 and the fifth, the Rams, finished with a 4-12 record. The average NFL team in 2016 had a 63% completion percentage, and only one playoff team, the Houston Texans, who squeaked in with a 9-7 record, had a completion percentage below the league average. Completion percentage is clearly not the end all and be all in quarterback play, but as a proxy for accuracy it does a really good job of separating the NFL haves from the have nots.

Christian Hackenberg has to date completed 50% of his passes in training camp. 50% is not a winning number. Consider that Josh McCown, who has a long career record of inaccuracy resulting in a career completion percentage of 59%, has connected at a 66% rate thus far in Jets camp, and Bryce Petty, a terribly inaccurate quarterback in 2016 at below 55%, has thus far completed 61% of his passes in camp. McCown, Petty and Hackenberg are all running the same offense.  Two are above 60%, and Hackenberg trails badly at 50%.

By themselves those statistics don't mean much. Small sample, not game conditions, not throwing to the same receivers, etc. But consider that Hackenberg was also below 50% in 2016 training camp. In his only extended playing time under game conditions in 2016 Hackenberg was a dreadful 11 for 31 (35%) in one of the worst quarterback performances I have witnessed. The sample gets a little larger.

Then there is college. In three years at Penn State Hackenberg completed only 56% of his passes and had only 12 out of 38 games in which he completed more than 60% of his passes. Well, sure, you say, but there were extenuating circumstances. Hackenberg lost his coach and his best teammates after his freshman year, and the new coach and untalented supporting cast screwed up his mechanics. Fair enough. Makes some sense. But then how do we explain the fact that in Hackenberg's best year in 2013, he had quarterback whisperer Bill O'Brien coaching him. He had a Penn State team yet to be ravaged by the Paterno fallout. He was throwing to one of the best wide receivers in college football in Allen Robinson, who would go on to become a Pro Bowl receiver in the NFL. Robinson caught more than 40% of Hackenberg's passes in 2013. Throw in passes to the running backs and tight ends and more than 60% of Hackenberg's targets in 2013 went to either safe, easy targets in the running backs or tight ends, or to a receiver in Robinson who nearly always had a mismatch in talent. And still Hackenberg was unable to break the rather pedestrian 60% barrier, completing less than 59% of his passes in 2013.

Unfortunately it doesn't end there. Hackenberg was a starting quarterback his final three years in high school. At that level you would expect a future NFL quarterback to be dominant. Not quite. Christian Hackenberg never completed better than 54% of his passes in his three high school years, and finished his high school career with a completion percentage below 52%.

Maybe we should let that sink in for a moment. We have statistics going back to Hackenberg as a 15 year old, and at no level of competition - not high school, not college, not in limited NFL reps, has he ever completed passes at a rate of 59% or higher.

At some point the explanations of how two years at Penn State screwed up Hackenberg's mechanics and his accuracy simply do not hold water. Hackenberg was an inaccurate quarterback in high school. He was an inaccurate quarterback in college BEFORE the coaching change and the talent exodus. He continued to be an inaccurate quarterback the rest of his college career, and that has continued throughout his limited pro reps. That doesn't mean he can never be accurate. Improvement is always a possibility. But as the years go by and he never at any time exhibits a minimal level of accuracy necessary for success at the NFL level the chances of that get progressively worse. At this point in his football career, having stacked up seven plus consecutive years of unacceptable inaccuracy, those chances are looking extremely remote. The unfortunate fact is Hackenberg is an extreme long shot to ever become accurate enough as a passer to succeed at the NFL level. Sure, he has a rocket arm, and he will surely impress with the occasional gorgeous throw that few others can make. He will likely have a few scattered games where he performs at an excellent level of accuracy. But those glimpses of greatness are likely to in the end be nothing more than a tease, as Christian Hackenberg will likely never be able to string enough such throws and such games together to be successful in the NFL.

just to put things in perspective.  if this clown is saying a 4% point difference in passing completion is the difference between winning and losing then he's terribly wrong.  that 4% means about 2 additional pass completions per game.  i know the nfl is getting nba like where you may as well only watch the last 5 minutes of the game but to make the whole difference come down to 2 pass completions seems like a real reach.  i would like to see what the pass completion rates are from different parts of the field.  i'll bet that teams that started their drives on a short field had a better completion rate than those that started deep in their own territory.  the ball placement at the start of a drive has way more , imo, impact on winning and losing than pass completions.