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Watch this - QB Josh Allen


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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Just drafting a guy doesn't simply make him a franchise guy.  That's the big mistake people seem to be making.  You can't wish a QB into being your guy for the next decade just because you draft him high.  How did that work with Sanchez?

I'd rather draft no QB rather than draft the WRONG guy.  Make Bowles go into the season with Hackenberg, Petty, and a late rounder.  Tank properly, fire Macc and Bowles, hire a VP, THEN draft the RIGHT QB.  

My response is about getting the guy you think is gonna be the franchise guy WHOEVER the GM/Coach/Scouts feel it is. Not about just drafting any QB    Be smart about it but get the GUY...  This sis why I wasn't upset with the trade up for Hack... He may be crap but if you evaluate him to be the guy and he's not gonna be there next tine you pick go get him.  And Sanchez was a good move but poor development from the coaching staff did him in.  If we had CS that could develop a QB he probably would still be the guy..

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4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

I take it you were the guy in the Jets' War Room when when we didn't move up for Brett Favre

...and when we passed on Dan Marino

...and Joe Montana.

;) 

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37 minutes ago, NoBowles said:

You realize that the difference between 56% and 60% is less than one completion per game? For argument sake, you don't think that receiving talent, offensive line talent, offensive system, opposition talent, etc. all play into the equation? I mean damn, one less throw away per game because of a sh*tty Line, one less drop or bad route, or dump off pass per game. This is what we are going to disqualify a QB prospect over, seriously? I don't know, its not like we have this sample of 300 franchise QB's in the last 20 years to gauge, we have about 20 of them. I only do statistics for a living, so I am probably not qualified, but this stat people are quoting like its the be all and end all seems silly to me, and I don't even like Allen as a prospect.

Good point, but it is cumulative, not just per game.  It's the same as hitters in baseball.  A .300 hitter makes big money, getting 180 hits out of 600 at bats a season, but the .250 hitter only gets 30 less hits, which means only 1 less hit every 5 games! 

That said, I don't think it's the ultimate disqualifier, but falls into the negative category.  Another negative factor is the number of starts, being 25.  Lewin Theory provides that a college QB with 35 or more starts and a completion percentage of 60% or better will have a better chance at being successful in the NFL.  Allen has negatives in both categories which raises red flags for his prospects.

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3 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I take it you were the guy in the Jets' War Room when when we didn't move up for Brett Favre

...and when we passed on Dan Marino

...and Joe Montana.

;) 

I’ll go with the cliche for 500, sperm.

ahem*

difFerent eRa

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41 minutes ago, legler82 said:

If we are talking about contemporizing the 60% rule then we need to also take into account the recent infestation of the Spread offense in college football which is grossly inflating the majority of prospects CMP%.  Petty completed 60+% of his passes in college and Geno completed 70+% of his passes his senior, coincidentally his only year he played in said system.  Would we classify either as being accurate?  Just from watching the tape, I'd say Allen is more accurate than Petty even though their college CMP%s would tell you different.  IMO on paper 60+ CMP% running the Spread in the Big 12 tells me about as much as 56 CMP% in the Mountain West running a pro-style offense, which is nothing!  Either way I'd need to see the tape.

This is a good point as well, but as I mentioned above, it doesn't account for the second factor in the Lewin Theory: number of collegiate starts.  Allen had only 25, so that is an issue.  Are both a deal breaker?  No, because teams have to take chances in light of the fact that there are so few franchise QBs.

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I am susceptible to footage of good throws. He looks good to me! But...NO.

If there was ever a year to reduce every possible risk when it comes to QB, this is it. If you don't have as close to a sure thing for QB at 6, trade down, or grab BPA. I don't care about excuses/rationale. You need a decent completion percentage.

DC

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18 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

I’ll go with the cliche for 500, sperm.

ahem*

difFerent eRa

Well then he should choose a different word than "ever" no?

Elway had a 65% completion rate in the same era as Marino, and several years before Favre's "era"

Kerry Collins, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, (I was just grabbing names off the career NFL passing yards leaders). I'm not spending the next 30 min looking up more names and stats that will fit the narrow definition of "ever" 

Greatest list ever? No, but apparently I'm not allowed to use most of the players names I'd include because they mostly played in a different era, and again I stopped looking. ;) 

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2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Well then he should choose a different word than "ever" no?

Elway had a 65% completion rate in the same era as Marino, and several years before Favre's "era"

Kerry Collins, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, and I'm not spending the next 30 min looking up names and stats.

Greatest list ever? No, but apparently I'm not allowed to use most of the players names I'd include because they mostly played in a different era. ;) 

Exactly.  Anyone who's been here long enough should know that if you make an absolute statement, you're going to get exceptions thrown back at you.  That's the JN way and we're damned proud of it!

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4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

so maybe the jets will draft mason Rudolph. at least his name is interesing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, KRL said:

I watched Allen in 5-6 games this year against teams similar to and better than Wyoming.  There is
no denying his textbook size & tools.  He makes throws that make you drool and he has a frame that
projects to be like Newton & Roethlisberger.  But for someone who is supposed to be a top QB prospect
he never lifted his team against mediocre competition and when he stepped up in class (Iowa & Oregon)
he was overwhelmed.  He could be successful on the pro level but who was the last QB whose accuracy
and completion percentage improved going against the best in the world.  I'm totally petrified of
him as a prospect 

 

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3 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Well then he should choose a different word than "ever" no?

Elway had a 65% completion rate in the same era as Marino, and several years before Favre's "era"

Kerry Collins, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, (I was just grabbing names off the career NFL passing yards leaders). I'm not spending the next 30 min looking up more names and stats that will fit the narrow definition of "ever" 

Greatest list ever? No, but apparently I'm not allowed to use most of the players names I'd include because they mostly played in a different era, and again I stopped looking. ;) 

I agree, he screwed up at “ever”. 

But to the OP’s point..

Allen reminds me of Hackenberg physically and stats wise so much though that it scares me. Idk why he is still in discussion for top pick. I don’t. 

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1 hour ago, SenorGato said:

Academic papers have been written on finding QBs in the draft!! It’s not some mystical process only the gods can divine!

2011berrisimmonsjpa.pdf

FO took the Lewan concepts and have recalibrated it at least 3 teams with increasing accuracy!

By anything objective Allen will not be a good prospect. 

If you really want to get wild and go a sub-60% guy maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe Lamar Jackson post-combine and not with a first. 

Just to be clear, Allen is probably my least favorite "top tier" qb prospect. I think I like Falk more than him too. But I'm just saying...if the Jets pick him at 6 I'm not gonna pretend to hate the pick until I see him play for a bit. 

Edit: and lol I have no idea where the pic below came from. I didn't post it but it's there true story. 

DE4ED788-4CB9-448F-9CA4-72004F54E691.jpeg

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28 minutes ago, SMC said:

Good point, but it is cumulative, not just per game.  It's the same as hitters in baseball.  A .300 hitter makes big money, getting 180 hits out of 600 at bats a season, but the .250 hitter only gets 30 less hits, which means only 1 less hit every 5 games! 

That said, I don't think it's the ultimate disqualifier, but falls into the negative category.  Another negative factor is the number of starts, being 25.  Lewin Theory provides that a college QB with 35 or more starts and a completion percentage of 60% or better will have a better chance at being successful in the NFL.  Allen has negatives in both categories which raises red flags for his prospects.

A couple of things...

First, .300 is not the be all and end all that it used to be, baseball stats have evolved way way beyond BA as a measure for valuing and paying hitters.

Second, baseball is far, far easier to normalize statistics than football is. There are so many more variables at play in football than baseball.

In general, I believe incorporating stats and metrics in sports is awesome and extremely valuable. That said, when it comes to football, a lot of people like to pawn off stats and math that either A they don't understand, or B they know their readers won't understand. 

If you look at the way BB uses statistics, you see that he gets it, and beyond the help they get from the refs, you understand why the Patriots are who they are.

All that said, I am not defending Allen or claiming he is legit. I think the odds of Todd Bowles making him work is close to zero. I am just commenting on the back napkin statisticians who throw around math and stats they don't understand and act as though they are smarter than the rest of the board because they read an article.

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6 minutes ago, HessStation said:

Just to be clear, Allen is probably my least favorite "top tier" qb prospect. I think I like Falk more than him too. But I'm just saying...if the Jets pick him at 6 I'm not gonna pretend for to hate the pick until I see him play for a bit. 

It’s exasperating, this place’s aversion to any deep analysis that attempts to demystify the game of foozeball. 

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5 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

It’s exasperating, this place’s aversion to any deep analysis that attempts to demystify the game of foozeball. 

What are you talking about? I just stated Allen would be my personal 6th choice of QB prospect. But The data doesn't prove he's an automatic bust. 

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Quote

First, .300 is not the be all and end all that it used to be, baseball stats have evolved way way beyond BA as a measure for valuing and paying hitters.

 

@NoBowlesKeeping with a baseball hitter analogy...Lets look at an imcomplete pass as a whiff (swing and miss) for a hitter. In a vacuum is the better hitter more likely to have a high whiff rate or a low whiff rate? 

Now say those guys were putting up those whiff rates in the minor leagues. Is the guy who posted higher whiff rates in the minors likely to miss less against ML pitchers? No. Same thing!  

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3 minutes ago, HessStation said:

What are you talking about? I just stated Allen would be my personal 6th choice of QB prospect. But The data doesn't prove he's an automatic bust. 

It doesn’t prove anyone is an autonatic hit either! That’s not the goal! What it IS going to say is that Allen’s a really, really bad bet among bad bets. 

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5 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

It doesn’t prove anyone is an autonatic hit either! That’s not the goal! What it IS going to say is that Allen’s a really, really bad bet among bad bets. 

Well if the sh*t box team lost two more games we wouldn't have to worry. Taking any qb  early is a tough bet. They all have their wrinkles. But Jets need a qb and I'm looking for them to take one.

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8 minutes ago, HessStation said:

Well if the sh*t box team lost two more games we wouldn't have to worry. Taking any qb  early is a tough bet. They all have their wrinkles. But Jets need a qb and I'm looking for them to take one.

All the more reason to take an analytical approach! QB and pass rusher are two positions where the Jets have repeatedly ignored the data. Spend one offseason not doing that with $100+ million to spend and 3 top 50 picks and maybe the losing stops. It’s a sport and a #seriousbisness for Jah’s sake, not some spiritual quest for man to find his destiny. 

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2 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

All the more reason to take an analytical approach! QB and pass rusher are two positions where the Jets have repeatedly ignored the data. Spend one offseason not doing that with $100+ million to spend and 3 top 50 picks and maybe the losing stops. It’s a sport for Jah’s sake, not some spiritual quest for man to find his destiny. 

So You'll be fun when the Jets takeAllen at 6 lol

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8 minutes ago, HessStation said:

So You'll be fun when the Jets takeAllen at 6 lol

I’m always fun THO. If they want to blow 6 on Allen after signing Cousins more power to them but it’ll be pointless on top of dumb. QB resale value only goes so far! 

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16 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

I’m always fun THO. If they want to blow 6 on Allen after signing Cousins more power to them but it’ll be pointless on top of dumb. QB resale value only goes so far! 

If they signed Cousins and drafted any QB in the first 4 rounds that'd be dumb. 

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