The cap: We should be conservative this offseason

[Jetsfan80]

A lot of conjecture on this board has suggested we have tons of cap space, and thus can once again be big spenders like Macc was last offseason.  

I would argue the exact opposite.  Our cap space (currently $60M) will actually be fairly limited after re-signing our own, and there's not much reason to be aggressive spenders.  

Even after cutting the likes of Trumaine Johnson ($3M savings) and Brian Winters ($7.3M savings) that "only" takes us up to $70.5M in space.

Let's say we bring back the following players, and under-estimate a bit the amount of cap dollars devoted to each in 2020:

• LT Kelvin Beachum:  $8M in 2020 cap number
• OLB Jordan Jenkins:  $6M 
• CB Brian Poole:  $5M
• G Alex Lewis:  $3.5M
• WR Demaryius Thomas:  $3M
• ILB Neville Hewitt:  $3M
• S Rontez Miles:  $2.5M
• OLB Brandon Copeland:  $2.5M
• P Lac Edwards:  $2M
• RB Bilal Powell:  $1.5M
• ILB James Burgess:  $1.5M

 

That would leave us with about $30-32M in cap space.  

Now let's factor in the compensatory pick for letting go of Robby Anderson.  Are overpaying any of the high-end potential UFA's below (positions of need only) worth giving up the late 3rd/4th in 2021?

• WR Amari Cooper
• WR AJ Green
• WR Emmanuel Sanders
• WR Randall Cobb
• WR Devin Funchess
• LT Andrew Whitworth
• LT Anthony Costanzo
• LT Greg Robinson
• G Brandon Scherff
• G Andrus Peat
• G Darryl Williams
• G Ereck Flowers
• G Mike Iupati
• G Kenny Wiggins
• G Michael Schofield
• C B.J. Finney
• EDGE Jadeveon Clowney
• EDGE Bud Dupree
• EDGE Yannick Ngakoue
• EDGE Dante Fowler
• EDGE Ziggy Ansah
• EDGE Robert Quinn
• EDGE Shaq Lawson
• EDGE Terrell Suggs
• EDGE Michael Bennett
• EDGE Jabaal Sheard
• EDGE Jason Pierre-Paul
• EDGE Bruce Irvin
• EDGE Mario Addison
• EDGE Vinny Curry
• EDGE Markus Golden
• EDGE Barkevious Mingo
• CB Chris Harris
• CB Jimmy Smith
• CB Bradley Roby
• CB Aqib Talib
• CB Ronald Darby
• CB Logan Ryan
• CB Jonathan Joseph
• CB Darqueze Dennard
• CB Eli Apple
• CB Jimmie Ward

 

Not a very inspiring list, even if one were to assume ALL of the above hit free agency.  Really the only one I would personally be interested in is Bud Dupree.  No other UFA would be worth giving up the compensatory pick.  

Thus, I think we should go bargain shopping in free agency this offseason.  There's no reason to spend "just to spend".  You end up with holes on your roster either way. 

[BurnleyJet]

It should be Edge, and spend all your picks on Oline in the early draft.

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

It should be Edge, and spend all your picks on Oline in the early draft.

Which EDGE do you like in free agency?  Just curious.

[UntouchableCrew]

Generally speaking spending big money in FA is always a mistake. Big UFA contracts rarely work out.

I'd still be willing to sign an OL though. We just desperately need to upgrade that position -- we should be targeting upgrades in the draft and in UFA.

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, UntouchableCrew said:

Generally speaking spending big money in FA is always a mistake. Big UFA contracts rarely work out.

I'd still be willing to sign an OL though. We just desperately need to upgrade that position -- we should be targeting upgrades in the draft and in UFA.

I want free agent OL too.  I just didn't see any names on that list that I want, sadly.  

[BurnleyJet]

22 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Which EDGE do you like in free agency?  Just curious.

Bud Dupree 

Yannick Ngakoue

 

[David Harris]

I’d save Enough money to resign Jamal to a record breaking deal because he’s a culture changer and the rest I’d max out the cap on any OL improvements- don’t care about overpaying. And I’d draft nothing but OL as well.  
 

with Sam in a rookie deal and Greg Williams coaching up pedestrians to be decent I’d go all in on playoffs next year

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, David Harris said:

I’d save Enough money to resign Jamal to a record breaking deal because he’s a culture changer

Yuck.  $33M+ per devoted to Mosley and Adams in the name of "culture"?  

That better be a damn amazing culture they're cultivating.  

[David Harris]

9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yuck.  $33M+ per devoted to Mosley and Adams in the name of "culture"?  

That better be a damn amazing culture they're cultivating.  

2 first team all pros, in their prime, with great attitudes, on a team used to guys like Quincy Enunwa taking a day off of rehab because he felt like it.  I hear ya, but yeah I’m paying those culture changers.

[kevinc855]

14 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yuck.  $33M+ per devoted to Mosley and Adams in the name of "culture"?  

That better be a damn amazing culture they're cultivating.  

When is someone good enough to actually pay for you. Mosley and Adams are in the top 10 defensive players of this league and young. 

Who do you guys actually wana pay?? 
 

Takes money to make money 

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I want free agent OL too.  I just didn't see any names on that list that I want, sadly.  

Conklin & Thuney

[PepPep]

Please cut Roberts. Saves 6 mil and he is completely done as a player, I mean, Tru Johnson done. I don't love his attitude either, turning on Jet fans after being criticized for having a terrible game. 

[CrazyCarl40]

20 minutes ago, David Harris said:

2 first team all pros, in their prime, with great attitudes, on a team used to guys like Quincy Enunwa taking a day off of rehab because he felt like it.  I hear ya, but yeah I’m paying those culture changers.

Mosley and Adams are on the team now and Enunwa did that. So, what’s that say about their leadership?

[David Harris]

14 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Mosley and Adams are on the team now and Enunwa did that. So, what’s that say about their leadership?

It’s a process.

[Jetsfan80]

37 minutes ago, David Harris said:

2 first team all pros, in their prime, with great attitudes, on a team used to guys like Quincy Enunwa taking a day off of rehab because he felt like it.  I hear ya, but yeah I’m paying those culture changers.

On a team that needs 4 new OL, 2 new WRs, 1-2 EDGE rushers and 2 CBs?  No thanks.  

[More Cowbell]

Beachum can be cut if we sign a LT in FA or draft one, Poole as well. I rather get a guy like Darby or Ryan if they hit the market. They will only cost a bit more and be a big upgrade. 

[GREENBEAN]

Yuck.  $33M+ per devoted to Mosley and Adams in the name of "culture"?  

That better be a damn amazing culture they're cultivating.  

I don’t like most of the players on that list either. But The two OL I want aren’t even on your list.

Conklin and Thuney

 

Your list seems to be incomplete. Bulaga is missing too as is Bradberry. There are some quality FA’s available that are worth more than a 3-4th rd comp pick.

 

 

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[Irish Jet]

I think we need to invest on offense. This has to be a decisive season for Sam and we need to get him out of this sh*tty situation so we can actually see if he’s the guy.

[GREENBEAN]

When is someone good enough to actually pay for you. Mosley and Adams are in the top 10 defensive players of this league and young. 
Who do you guys actually wana pay?? 
 
Takes money to make money 

This is a good post. I wonder that exact question sometimes. It applies to Anderson too. When is a homegrown player good enough for jets fans to want to pay?

I know we’re not used to actually having those types of players but the line had to be somewhere. A first rd all pro can move the needle because we used the 6th pick for him 4 years ago.


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[Jetsfan80]

49 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

When is someone good enough to actually pay for you. Mosley and Adams are in the top 10 defensive players of this league and young. 

Who do you guys actually wana pay?? 
 

Takes money to make money 

 

6 minutes ago, GREENBEAN said:

This is a good post. I wonder that exact question sometimes. It applies to Anderson too. When is a homegrown player good enough for jets fans to want to pay?

I know we’re not used to actually having those types of players but the line had to be somewhere. A first rd all pro can move the needle because we used the 6th pick for him 4 years ago.


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Did either of you notice I have been advocating bringing back Jordan Jenkins and Brian Poole?  Does that not count for anything?

Just call me selective.  If he doesn't play a premium position, I don't want to pay him top of the market money.  

QB, LT, WR, EDGE, CB, the other OL spots....those are the positions I'm willing to pay big money IF we have someone worth paying.  We currently don't outside of perhaps Darnold in a couple years.

Spending just to spend is not a wise strategy.  

[Jetsfan80]

10 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Beachum can be cut if we sign a LT in FA or draft one, Poole as well. I rather get a guy like Darby or Ryan if they hit the market. They will only cost a bit more and be a big upgrade. 

Poole is a slot corner, no?  I'd keep Poole and also look into the outside CB's on the market.

[kevinc855]

14 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

Did either of you notice I have been advocating bringing back Jordan Jenkins and Brian Poole?  Does that not count for anything?

Just call me selective.  If he doesn't play a premium position, I don't want to pay him top of the market money.  

QB, LT, WR, EDGE, CB, the other OL spots....those are the positions I'm willing to pay big money IF we have someone worth paying.  We currently don't outside of perhaps Darnold in a couple years.

Spending just to spend is not a wise strategy.  

You wana plug and play average players and get rid of the elite talent. The good teams build around the elite talent not send them packing because they are cheap. 

[Jetsfan80]

14 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

You wana plug and play average players and get rid of the elite talent. The good teams build around the elite talent not send them packing because they are cheap. 

I only want to trade Jamal.  I'm not advocating trading Mosley.  

[More Cowbell]

32 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Poole is a slot corner, no?  I'd keep Poole and also look into the outside CB's on the market.

I think he played both positions at dofferent times but i could be wrong about that.  5 mill really is reasonable anyway. Beachum is reserve at best. 

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, More Cowbell said:

I think he played both positions at dofferent times but i could be wrong about that.  5 mill really is reasonable anyway. Beachum is reserve at best. 

True, true but who cares THE PATS LOSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Beerfish]

With mosley and williamson out, two high  priced ilbs the replacement guys came in and played really well. to the point that we did not miss those payers at those huge salaries.  ILBs play the run, if they have to they try and cover the odd time.  The blitz the odd time (but not much with the jets cause adams is always blitzing)

It makes no sense to pay huge dollars to ilbs, especially two of them.

Adams had a nice year and he will get paid i am sure but if this defense ever become more of a normalized D with olbs and Dline that rush the passer adams will be much less of a factor.

Watch the playoff games today, none of the safeties played like the jets play adams.

I also think the whole adams is a great leader is over blown, he is a great promoter.

[More Cowbell]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

True, true but who cares THE PATS LOSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And what a way to lose with Brady throwing a pick 6 with the game on the line (even though Ryan would have been smart to go down)

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, More Cowbell said:

And what a way to lose with Brady throwing a pick 6 with the game on the line (even though Ryan would have been smart to go down)

Nah man, take that pick 6.  F**k Brady!!!

[Sperm Edwards]

8 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

A lot of conjecture on this board has suggested we have tons of cap space, and thus can once again be big spenders like Macc was last offseason.  

I would argue the exact opposite.  Our cap space (currently $60M) will actually be fairly limited after re-signing our own, and there's not much reason to be aggressive spenders.  

Even after cutting the likes of Trumaine Johnson ($3M savings) and Brian Winters ($7.3M savings) that "only" takes us up to $70.5M in space.

Let's say we bring back the following players, and under-estimate a bit the amount of cap dollars devoted to each in 2020:

• LT Kelvin Beachum:  $8M in 2020 cap number
• OLB Jordan Jenkins:  $6M 
• CB Brian Poole:  $5M
• G Alex Lewis:  $3.5M
• WR Demaryius Thomas:  $3M
• ILB Neville Hewitt:  $3M
• S Rontez Miles:  $2.5M
• OLB Brandon Copeland:  $2.5M
• P Lac Edwards:  $2M
• RB Bilal Powell:  $1.5M
• ILB James Burgess:  $1.5M

 

That would leave us with about $30-32M in cap space.  

 

My brother, unfortunately you’re going to be sorely disappointed that these are numbers that would hold water years ago. I think this is coloring your expectations for any/every player, in terms of what the player “should” cost. 2020 full UFAs are not the same cost as players other teams extended in 2016-2018 when they still had a year left on their old/rookie deals. 

Beachum will get more than $8MM

• Beachum is a starting LT whom teams still will figure to have 1-2 productive starter years left. The Jets are not the only team in the NFL with a hole at LT. Though I agree he’s a prime target to get extended, it won’t be for just $8MM. He got more than that per year coming off a horrible season in Jacksonville where he was one of the lowest-rated tackles in football. Be thankful if we can get him back at just $10MM with not more than 1.5 yrs guaranteed.

Jenkins will also get more than $6MM/year

• No he’s not the greatest, but he’s an every-down OLB who’s been a starter for all 4 years he’s been in the league, will still be 25 years old in March when it’s contract time, and as a free agent his recent 7 and 8 sack seasons - the all-important stat for edge rushers - will garner attention. I say this with the utmost personall affection for you, boo: you’re on crack if you think he’s returning here at just $6MM. If that opportunity existed at all, it passed when we didn’t extend him before the 2019 season.

Alex Lewis will get more than $3.5MM

• When healthy - and he is healthy - he’s a 28 year-old starting guard. I don’t think he’ll get a long term deal pushing $10MM or anything like that, but a relatively young veteran the Jets (or another team) can pencil in to start all season without being a train wreck will command more than that. His issue with Baltimore was always health, and from the time he was inserted to replace Osemele in week 5 he didn’t miss a snap for the rest of the season. We ain’t getting him back at just $3.5MM that’s for sure. You’re basing too much on his recent salary, but that was because it was the final year of his rookie contract, not because it was the best he could get as a UFA in March.

Demaryius Thomas at $3MM? Not sure, but at least this one’s in the ballpark

• There was a legitimate question as to whether he had anything left in the tank after not just a weak half-season for Houston, but finishing the season on IR with a torn Achilles — an injury that hadn’t yet healed when New England signed him (and when we traded for him). He answered that question. Like with Alex Lewis, he won’t break the bank for the Jets or anyone else, since he’s not the player he once was and never will be again,but he’ll be able to do better than $3MM. That was his “meh let’s take a shot” pricetag when NE/others were concerned he’d never see the field. He missed the last few games, but they were not the types of injuries that will carry over to the following season. $3MM is a possibility, but it won’t be until after he’s shopped himself around. $3MM to $5MM is his likely range.

Edwards at $2MM is also a little low

• He’s been a 46 yard/punt guy for 3 years in a row here. I think you’re off by at least 50% but for punter salaries that’s only about $1MM (maybe $2MM). Why on earth would he take a pay cut to stay with the Jets? Why would anyone? His punting average is right in line with the highest paid punters in the league (and that’s with punting in a lot of cold/crappy weather, not 8 home games/year in a climate controlled dome). He’s top 10 and $2MM would not only put him at or below 20th, but it’d be 20th or lower including old contracts signed 3-4 years ago, not just the ones players are now inking.

Conservatively, you’re off by at least $10MM/year just for the 5 players above (probably more than that). 

If it makes you feel any better, I think you’re a little high on Powell. Barring someone showing surprising interest in him for his age 32 season, he has veteran minimum written all over him, making his cap hit closer to half your number. 

Others:

• After getting by without BOTH starting ILBs all year long, I think for one season they’ll decide they can make do with just one of them, and - if they need his $6.5MM for a specific FA - cut ties with Williamson. It’s unknown how effective he’d be coming off that injury, and he’s a FA after that anyway. 
• Enunwa’s $7.8MM cap figure really hurts; I don’t think he’s cuttable with that injury. So that’s $7.8MM as a line-item for 2020, plus the $9MM signing bonus that we can’t use elsewhere, plus another $4MM in injury-guaranteed salary for 2021 (thanks, Macc). After the dust settles, this will amazingly end up even worse than his Mo Wilkerson and Revis deals. 
• I think they’ll try to shop Bell again. Based on the cold reception in October, I don’t see any takers unless we agree to eat half his salary or something (like they did with Leo) and even then I doubt it’ll be much of a draft pick. At that savings, is it just worth it to keep him and see how he bounces back with a revamped OL? I don’t know. Though it was rephrased as being “patient” behind an OL that wasn’t going to open up a hole anyway, he just looked slow. 
• If they do move Adams it’ll save another $3.5MM. (In practice it saves far more than that, over a $15MM+/year extension, plus the cheap 1st round starter and more - one or two fewer overpriced FA salaries needed - that we’d forgo).

[jgb]

So trade away our only pro bowler and then be conservative in FA. What could go wrong?

[NYJ1]

14 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

A lot of conjecture on this board has suggested we have tons of cap space, and thus can once again be big spenders like Macc was last offseason.  

I would argue the exact opposite.  Our cap space (currently $60M) will actually be fairly limited after re-signing our own, and there's not much reason to be aggressive spenders.  

Even after cutting the likes of Trumaine Johnson ($3M savings) and Brian Winters ($7.3M savings) that "only" takes us up to $70.5M in space.

Let's say we bring back the following players, and under-estimate a bit the amount of cap dollars devoted to each in 2020:

• LT Kelvin Beachum:  $8M in 2020 cap number
• OLB Jordan Jenkins:  $6M 
• CB Brian Poole:  $5M
• G Alex Lewis:  $3.5M
• WR Demaryius Thomas:  $3M
• ILB Neville Hewitt:  $3M
• S Rontez Miles:  $2.5M
• OLB Brandon Copeland:  $2.5M
• P Lac Edwards:  $2M
• RB Bilal Powell:  $1.5M
• ILB James Burgess:  $1.5M

 

That would leave us with about $30-32M in cap space.  

Now let's factor in the compensatory pick for letting go of Robby Anderson.  Are overpaying any of the high-end potential UFA's below (positions of need only) worth giving up the late 3rd/4th in 2021?

• WR Amari Cooper
• WR AJ Green
• WR Emmanuel Sanders
• WR Randall Cobb
• WR Devin Funchess
• LT Andrew Whitworth
• LT Anthony Costanzo
• LT Greg Robinson
• G Brandon Scherff
• G Andrus Peat
• G Darryl Williams
• G Ereck Flowers
• G Mike Iupati
• G Kenny Wiggins
• G Michael Schofield
• C B.J. Finney
• EDGE Jadeveon Clowney
• EDGE Bud Dupree
• EDGE Yannick Ngakoue
• EDGE Dante Fowler
• EDGE Ziggy Ansah
• EDGE Robert Quinn
• EDGE Shaq Lawson
• EDGE Terrell Suggs
• EDGE Michael Bennett
• EDGE Jabaal Sheard
• EDGE Jason Pierre-Paul
• EDGE Bruce Irvin
• EDGE Mario Addison
• EDGE Vinny Curry
• EDGE Markus Golden
• EDGE Barkevious Mingo
• CB Chris Harris
• CB Jimmy Smith
• CB Bradley Roby
• CB Aqib Talib
• CB Ronald Darby
• CB Logan Ryan
• CB Jonathan Joseph
• CB Darqueze Dennard
• CB Eli Apple
• CB Jimmie Ward

 

Not a very inspiring list, even if one were to assume ALL of the above hit free agency.  Really the only one I would personally be interested in is Bud Dupree.  No other UFA would be worth giving up the compensatory pick.  

Thus, I think we should go bargain shopping in free agency this offseason.  There's no reason to spend "just to spend".  You end up with holes on your roster either way. 

These numbers are not accurate. 

[bealeb319]

Giving up a 3 Rd 4 the compensatory pick we might get from Anderson would be not only worth it because it may just save darnolds life next season but it is 100 percent a necessity in order to compete next season. What kind of suggestion is that? Saving money so that you can maybe hit on a mid round player 2 drafts from now does not make us a better football team. That is rediculous.

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[JustInFudge]

So your plan is to bring back the entire 2019 team, add no veteran talent, trade your best player and hope you hit on every pick in the draft? 

Great in theory, I guess but it seems like it’s putting a lot of eggs in one basket and much easier said then done.  You need is a balance of both, especially for a talent deprived team, the option is there for a reason, you just have to be wise and not sign known bums like Trumaine Johnson to ridiculous contracts. 

[varjet]

The Jets have 7-8 draft picks now and will likely claim some other young players. 

I don’t see them paying 7 figures for guys like Copeland.  

But yes, I agree that not only is the cap space overstated, but it will cost a lot just to sign average bodies to fill the roster.  

[JustInFudge]

10 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

When is someone good enough to actually pay for you. Mosley and Adams are in the top 10 defensive players of this league and young. 

Who do you guys actually wana pay?? 
 

Takes money to make money 

I like: gotta pay to play.