How Jets GM Joe Douglas changed direction of franchise in one year

[NYJ1]

https://www-espn-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/83327/how-jets-gm-joe-douglas-changed-direction-of-franchise-in-one-year?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&platform=amp&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.espn.com%2Fblog%2Fnew-york-jets%2Fpost%2F_%2Fid%2F83327%2Fhow-jets-gm-joe-douglas-changed-direction-of-franchise-in-one-year

 

On June 7, 2019, the New York Jets capped a tumultuous offseason by hiring former Philadelphia Eagles executive Joe Douglas as their general manager. They gave him a six-year contract -- a bold commitment for a first-time GM. Their message was clear:

Save us, Joe.

The Jets needed saving. Still do. This is a franchise that hasn't made the playoffs since 2010 and hasn't posted a winning season since 2015. Since then, the Jets are 21-43. The only team with a worse record is the Cleveland Browns (14-49-1).

Exactly one year into the gig, Douglas looks and sounds like a man with a plan. It's hard to assign a specific grade because we still haven't seen his 2020 draft picks or key free-agent additions on the field, but it's clear he has a vision for the team -- and that's a big part of the battle.

A quick review of his first year:

He restored calm and credibility. The Jets became a laughingstock for firing GM Mike Maccagnan three weeks after the 2019 draft. Maccagnan and newly hired coach Adam Gase splintered faster than a dead twig, plunging the organization into turmoil.

Douglas walked into a tough situation, but he galvanized the building with his unpretentious personality and blue-collar work ethic. Support from Gase, who endorsed Douglas' hire, helped the transition. The front office/coaching staff relationship is stronger than it was under Maccagnan and former coach Todd Bowles. The "watch-your-back" mentality that existed in previous regimes appears to be gone.

Douglas also surrounded himself with lieutenants whom he knew from his past, creating cohesion in the front office. He brought in an outside voice, hiring Rex Hogan as assistant GM. Hogan was instrumental in a few of the Jets' trades.

He established a hard line at the bargaining table. For years, the Jets threw around crazy money, hoping to buy solutions to deep-rooted problems. More often than not, it backfired. Douglas changed that approach, refusing to pay more than his perceived value for a player. It cost him wide receiver Robby Anderson, who bolted as a free agent, but it allowed him to retain linebacker Jordan Jenkins and cornerback Brian Poole on team-friendly deals.

 

Look, every team overpays to some extent -- $9 million-a-year for right tackle George Fant raised eyebrows around the league -- but Douglas' business model should serve them well over the long haul.

He dared to think outside the box: After a 20-year cold war with the New England Patriots, Douglas made two (yes, two!) trades with the Jets' No. 1 nemesis. That might not seem like a big deal, but it showed he wasn't going to let preconceived notions stop him from doing business.

He attacked the No. 1 problem (with gusto): Douglas started talking about the offensive line at his introductory news conference. He made it a priority and he wound up spending 75% of his free-agent funds on the line. The cherry on top was tackle Mekhi Becton, whom he drafted 11th overall.

Douglas made it clear from the outset that strength in the trenches is the backbone to a successful team. It wasn't just lip service. Four of his acquisitions figure to be in the opening-day lineup: Becton, center Connor McGovern, right guard Greg Van Roten and Fant.

Best move: The Leonard Williams trade, executed at the NFL deadline last fall, was a prescient move. Douglas knew he didn't want to re-sign the defensive end, who was headed to free agency. Instead of losing him for nothing, he found a taker (hello, New York Giants) and received fair value -- a 2020 third-round choice and a 2021 fifth-rounder. With the third-rounder, he chose Ashtyn Davis, who could be the free safety of the future.

Worst move: Douglas wasted time and money (nearly $7 million) by coaxing center Ryan Kalil out of retirement. He took longer than expected to get in shape, never got comfortable in the scheme and suffered a season-ending injury midway through the season.

The lesson learned is that chemistry matters, especially on the offensive line. Another lesson: Sometimes the incumbent (in this case, Jonotthan Harrison) is better than an outsider with a fancy résumé.

Looking to the future, Douglas faces big challenges. Namely:

The Jamal Adams situation: This could get ugly if not handled properly. It's incumbent upon Douglas to maintain an open line of communication with the All-Pro safety. They got their lines crossed last fall at the trading deadline, infuriating Adams. That might have been a rookie mistake by Douglas, who found himself engaged in trade talks after telling Adams he had no plans to deal him.

From the player perspective, Douglas has sent mixed messages this offseason, professing he wants to make Adams "a Jet for life" while dragging his feet in contract talks. From all indications, the Jets don't want to extend his deal until 2021, the final year. If that's the case, Douglas needs to be clear with Adams, a personality who could become a distraction if he feels as if he's getting jerked around.

It could be moot anyway if Adams is hellbent on getting a new deal by the start of the year. Douglas' resolve will be tested if Adams stages a training camp holdout and/or requests a trade.

Patch on the fly: Douglas improved the depth at a number of positions, but he's still thin at wide receiver -- really thin. Unless second-round pick Denzel Mims is a standout from the jump, the Jets will need another starting-caliber player. Get ready for a summer of trade rumors.

Distribution of resources: Only three of the top-10 cap charges for 2020 are players who were drafted by the Jets -- defensive tackle Quinnen Williams (seventh), quarterback Sam Darnold (eighth) and guard Brian Winters (10th), who is hanging by a thread. Though no fault of Douglas, who inherited a bad roster, this illustrates a dangerous imbalance. They're spending too much on outside players and not enough on their own, which highlights their poor drafting.

Douglas' challenge is to reverse the trend.

[NYJ1]

This illustrates well imo the inferiority of the Jets front office's from the past. It also demonstrates what Joe Douglas's challenges are moving forward. 

It looks good on paper and that's about the best thing you can say about it. Until we see the Jets fortunes change,  it's all just pure speculation and opinion - which means nothing. 

The ONLY way this changes is for the drafting to get better. I'm optimistic about this draft class but honestly who knows if this really turns out well?

[Beerfish]

Like all gms douglas will be judged on how this years and subsequent drafts pan out.

[Sperm Edwards]

Some of this is conveniently crediting him for underspending in a unique FA period where pretty much everyone underspent. There just wasn't the typical escalation in dollars. A number of UFAs got less than expected.

• Like Anderson getting "only" $10MM per was seen here as a reflection on him more than a reflection of the market.
• Conklin was expected to get $18MM/year (possibly more) and he took $14MM/yr from Cleveland.
• Peat was a 26 year-old, 2x probowl guard and his $11.5MM/yr deal was the highest interior OL contract handed out.
• Fowler was a 25 year-old, former top 3 overall pick, at a mega-dollars position, just coming off his best season with 11.5 sacks and entering his age 26 season. He got just 1.5 yrs gtd at $15MM (less total and guaranteed than a similar but 2 years-older Ingram got 3 offseasons earlier, after being franchise tagged). 
• This all trickled down to the next-lower tiers (e.g. our bargain re-signing of Jordan Jenkins and Brian Poole, among others)

Teams also kept their tagged FAs tagged without extensions more than ever heard of before (including from some teams that have made a habit of getting their guys locked up long term)

• Maybe some will come to agreements before the July 15 deadline for FT-designees, but as of now there are still 15 tagged players. Judon, Leo Williams, Drake (TT), AJ Green, Simmons, Ngakoue, Chris Jones, Anthony Harris, Hunter Henry, Thuney, Dupree, Shaq Barrett, Derrick Henry, Scherff, and Prescott. 

That long of a list is insane, except maybe for Prescott, whose demands - despite such a market - are equally insane. In 2019 there were only 6 franchise tagged players, and one of them was a friggin' kicker. By the 7/15 deadline, 5 of those 6 (all but Clowney) reached long term deals with either the tagging team or the team to which the player was traded; two (Gould and Grady) of those extended happened right on the deadline day.

So all these players were taken off the FA market by teams that had the cash to absorb a FT amount (usually they'd reach an extension and get major cap relief in at least year 1 of the extension, creating greater flexibility to sign still more players). 

Anyway I don't think you can take this one unconventional offseason and use it to deduce a blanket statement about some Douglas philosophy.

[BornJetsFan1983]

So far so good

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Anyway I don't think you can take this one unconventional offseason and use it to deduce a blanket statement about some Douglas philosophy.

 

Eh, Free agency started on March 18th, in the early stages of the lockdowns.  Money was flying around pretty much like any offseason in that first week.  I don't think that first wave of free agency was impacted by the pandemic all that much.

All of these guys got fairly rich multi-year deals:

• Ryan Tannehill (Titans):  $118M extension over 4 years
• DeForest Buckner (49ers):  $105M extension over 5 years
• Amari Cooper (Cowboys):  $100M extension over 5 years
• Arik Armstead (49ers):  $85M extension over 5 years 
• Byron Jones (Dolphins):  $82M over 5 years
• Robert Quinn (Bears):  $70M over 5 years
• Teddy Bridgewater (Panthers):  $63M over 3 years
• Andrus Peat (Saints):  $57.5M extension over 5 years
• Joe Schobert (Jaguars):  $53.75M over 5 years
• DJ Reader (Bengals):  $53M over 4 years
• Kyle Van Noy (Dolphins):  $51M over 4 years
• Darius Slay (Eagles):  $50M extension over 3 years
• Halapoulivaati Vaitai (Lions):  $50M over 5 years
• Tom Brady (Bucs):  $50M over 2 years
• Drew Brees (Saints):  $50M extension over 2 years
• Dante Fowler (Falcons):  $48M over 3 years
• James Bradberry (Giants):  $45M over 3 years
• Graham Glasgow (Broncos):  $44M over 4 years
• Jack Conklin (Browns): $42M over 3 years
• Trae Waynes (Bengals):  $42M over 3 years
• Austin Hooper (Browns):  $42M over 4 years
• Kendall Fuller (Redskins):  $40M over 4 years
• Jason Hargrave (Eagles):  $39M over 3 years
• Bradley Roby (Texans):  $36M extension over 3 years
• Cory Littleton (Raiders):  $36M over 3 years
• Anthony Castonzo (Colts):  $33M over 2 years
• Malcolm Jenkins (Saints):  $32M over 4 years
• Michael Brockers (Rams):  $31.5 extension over 3 years
• Mario Addison (Bills):  $30.5M over 3 years
• Jamie Collins (Lions):  $30M over 3 years
• Bryan Bulaga (Chargers)  $30M over 3 years
• Andrew Whitworth (Rams):  $30M over 3 years
• Ereck Flowers (Dolphins):  $30M over 3 years
• Shaq Lawson (Dolphins):  $30M over 3 years
• Blake Martinez (Giants):  $30M over 3 years
• Jimmie Ward (49ers):  $28.5M extension over 3 years
• Michael Pierce (Vikings):  $28M over 3 years
• Jason Pierre-Paul (Bucs):  $27M over 2 years
• Randall Cobb (Texans):  $27M over 3 years
• David Onyemata (Saints):  $27M extension over 3 years
• Carl Nassib (Raiders):  $25M over 3 years
• Austin Ekeler (Chargers):  $24.5M extension over 4 years
• Blake Jarwin (Cowboys):  $24.25M extension over 3 years
• Danny Trevathan (Bears):  $24M extension over 3 years
• Devin McCourty (Patriots):  $23M over 2 years
• Jarran Reed (Seahawks):  $23M extension over 2 years
• Desmond Trufant (Lions):  $21M over 2 years
• Taysom Hill (Saints):  $21M extension over 2 years
• Nick Kwiatkoski (Raiders):  $21M over 3 years
• Dennis Kelly (Titans):  $21M extension over 3 years
• Gerald McCoy (Cowboys):  $18.3M over 3 years
• Vonn Bell (Bengals):  $18M over 3 years
• Ka'imi Fairbarn (Texans):  $17.7M over 4 years
• Marcus Mariota (Raiders):  $17.6M over 2 years
• Chris Harris (Chargers)  $17M over 2 years
• Linval Joseph (Chargers):  $17M over 2 years
• A'Shawn Robinson (Rams):  $17M over 2 years
• Melvin Gordon (Broncos):  $16M over 2 years
• Jimmy Graham (Bears):  $16M over 2 years
• Christian Kirksey (Packers):  $16M over 2 years
• Emmanuel Sanders (Saints):  $16M over 2 years

[THE BARON]

I'm all in with JD. They Jets found the right man. We will see the Jets in the playoffs in 2021 and beyond...

[Thai Jet]

In JD we trust ! Like the results thus far.

[Prez33]

I’ve been a fan too long to know how quickly this media and fan base can turn on a GM. With that said, JD seems like a different type of GM than what we’ve previously had. He appears to be pretty locked in on college players, and won’t spend a ton on a sexy FA. He stayed away from expensive guys like Conklin in favor of solid, affordable guys like McGovern, Van Roten, Desir and Perriman. I like the approach. 
 

 

[Philc1]

Excellent draft

[jetstream23]

GM's aren't only judged by what they do (who they Draft, who they sign, etc.) but also by what they DON'T do (overpay for Conklin, trade up in the Draft giving up picks, etc.).  On that front Joe Douglas seems to be off to a good start.  Only time will tell as this roster marinates over the course of the season.

[NYJ1]

11 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

GM's aren't only judged by what they do (who they Draft, who they sign, etc.) but also by what they DON'T do (overpay for Conklin, trade up in the Draft giving up picks, etc.).  On that front Joe Douglas seems to be off to a good start.  Only time will tell as this roster marinates over the course of the season.

Actually, that's only correct for educated fans like you and I. Most team followers wouldn't know the difference and would be disappointed JD didn't sign Conklin. Your run of the mill fan sees big NFL names and automatically chalks the Jets not signing them as another reason why they are the Jets.

[rangerous]

18 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Some of this is conveniently crediting him for underspending in a unique FA period where pretty much everyone underspent. There just wasn't the typical escalation in dollars. A number of UFAs got less than expected.

• Like Anderson getting "only" $10MM per was seen here as a reflection on him more than a reflection of the market.
• Conklin was expected to get $18MM/year (possibly more) and he took $14MM/yr from Cleveland.
• Peat was a 26 year-old, 2x probowl guard and his $11.5MM/yr deal was the highest interior OL contract handed out.
• Fowler was a 25 year-old, former top 3 overall pick, at a mega-dollars position, just coming off his best season with 11.5 sacks and entering his age 26 season. He got just 1.5 yrs gtd at $15MM (less total and guaranteed than a similar but 2 years-older Ingram got 3 offseasons earlier, after being franchise tagged). 
• This all trickled down to the next-lower tiers (e.g. our bargain re-signing of Jordan Jenkins and Brian Poole, among others)

Teams also kept their tagged FAs tagged without extensions more than ever heard of before (including from some teams that have made a habit of getting their guys locked up long term)

• Maybe some will come to agreements before the July 15 deadline for FT-designees, but as of now there are still 15 tagged players. Judon, Leo Williams, Drake (TT), AJ Green, Simmons, Ngakoue, Chris Jones, Anthony Harris, Hunter Henry, Thuney, Dupree, Shaq Barrett, Derrick Henry, Scherff, and Prescott. 

That long of a list is insane, except maybe for Prescott, whose demands - despite such a market - are equally insane. In 2019 there were only 6 franchise tagged players, and one of them was a friggin' kicker. By the 7/15 deadline, 5 of those 6 (all but Clowney) reached long term deals with either the tagging team or the team to which the player was traded; two (Gould and Grady) of those extended happened right on the deadline day.

So all these players were taken off the FA market by teams that had the cash to absorb a FT amount (usually they'd reach an extension and get major cap relief in at least year 1 of the extension, creating greater flexibility to sign still more players). 

Anyway I don't think you can take this one unconventional offseason and use it to deduce a blanket statement about some Douglas philosophy.

of course one season isn't enough to judge joe douglas but when he's compared to mac he's a superstar.  mac would compete against himself when signing players like fitz or trumiane or mccown or even bell.  there were no takers for those players at the salaries the jets threw around.

we'll see what happens.  hopefully all of these new faces turn out to play as a team.  they do this and the jets will do pretty well. 

[More Cowbell]

JD is getting praise right IMO for addressing the obvious,  the OL and WR positions. Both spots were dry as sand on the roster. I hope like Hell Mims is a legit #1 but a lot of teams looked elsewhere when it came to addressing pass catchers before he was selected, especially  in the second round. That has me worried. Becton i also have concerns with but he was the obvious pick if you were not going to take one of the top 3 WR's. I just worry about him staying in shape and healthy. 

Basically what I see in JD though is a guy that goes in with a strategy  and sticks to it no matter what the other teams are doing. That is refreshing but as mentioned,  we need to see Mims turn into a legit WR, Becton to be a cornerstone LT, his FA additions make an impact and for the team to move forward. It will probably  be 2 years before any of that is realized but it does look good on paper. 

[peebag]

10 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

 Becton i also have concerns with but he was the obvious pick if you were not going to take one of the top 3 WR's. I just worry about him staying in shape and healthy. 

Why?  What have you heard in this regard?

[More Cowbell]

50 minutes ago, peebag said:

Why?  What have you heard in this regard?

The guy is what I classify as a guy that can only be successful  with optimal health due to his size. If he gets a lower body injury, it will really hurt his performance and his rehab can be longer because of all the mass it supports. 

[Sperm Edwards]

17 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Eh, Free agency started on March 18th, in the early stages of the lockdowns.  Money was flying around pretty much like any offseason in that first week.  I don't think that first wave of free agency was impacted by the pandemic all that much.

All of these guys got fairly rich multi-year deals:

• Ryan Tannehill (Titans):  $118M extension over 4 years
• DeForest Buckner (49ers):  $105M extension over 5 years
• Amari Cooper (Cowboys):  $100M extension over 5 years
• Arik Armstead (49ers):  $85M extension over 5 years 
• Byron Jones (Dolphins):  $82M over 5 years
• Robert Quinn (Bears):  $70M over 5 years
• Teddy Bridgewater (Panthers):  $63M over 3 years
• Andrus Peat (Saints):  $57.5M extension over 5 years
• Joe Schobert (Jaguars):  $53.75M over 5 years
• DJ Reader (Bengals):  $53M over 4 years
• Kyle Van Noy (Dolphins):  $51M over 4 years
• Darius Slay (Eagles):  $50M extension over 3 years
• Halapoulivaati Vaitai (Lions):  $50M over 5 years
• Tom Brady (Bucs):  $50M over 2 years
• Drew Brees (Saints):  $50M extension over 2 years
• Dante Fowler (Falcons):  $48M over 3 years
• James Bradberry (Giants):  $45M over 3 years
• Graham Glasgow (Broncos):  $44M over 4 years
• Jack Conklin (Browns): $42M over 3 years
• Trae Waynes (Bengals):  $42M over 3 years
• Austin Hooper (Browns):  $42M over 4 years
• Kendall Fuller (Redskins):  $40M over 4 years
• Jason Hargrave (Eagles):  $39M over 3 years
• Bradley Roby (Texans):  $36M extension over 3 years
• Cory Littleton (Raiders):  $36M over 3 years
• Anthony Castonzo (Colts):  $33M over 2 years
• Malcolm Jenkins (Saints):  $32M over 4 years
• Michael Brockers (Rams):  $31.5 extension over 3 years
• Mario Addison (Bills):  $30.5M over 3 years
• Jamie Collins (Lions):  $30M over 3 years
• Bryan Bulaga (Chargers)  $30M over 3 years
• Andrew Whitworth (Rams):  $30M over 3 years
• Ereck Flowers (Dolphins):  $30M over 3 years
• Shaq Lawson (Dolphins):  $30M over 3 years
• Blake Martinez (Giants):  $30M over 3 years
• Jimmie Ward (49ers):  $28.5M extension over 3 years
• Michael Pierce (Vikings):  $28M over 3 years
• Jason Pierre-Paul (Bucs):  $27M over 2 years
• Randall Cobb (Texans):  $27M over 3 years
• David Onyemata (Saints):  $27M extension over 3 years
• Carl Nassib (Raiders):  $25M over 3 years
• Austin Ekeler (Chargers):  $24.5M extension over 4 years
• Blake Jarwin (Cowboys):  $24.25M extension over 3 years
• Danny Trevathan (Bears):  $24M extension over 3 years
• Devin McCourty (Patriots):  $23M over 2 years
• Jarran Reed (Seahawks):  $23M extension over 2 years
• Desmond Trufant (Lions):  $21M over 2 years
• Taysom Hill (Saints):  $21M extension over 2 years
• Nick Kwiatkoski (Raiders):  $21M over 3 years
• Dennis Kelly (Titans):  $21M extension over 3 years
• Gerald McCoy (Cowboys):  $18.3M over 3 years
• Vonn Bell (Bengals):  $18M over 3 years
• Ka'imi Fairbarn (Texans):  $17.7M over 4 years
• Marcus Mariota (Raiders):  $17.6M over 2 years
• Chris Harris (Chargers)  $17M over 2 years
• Linval Joseph (Chargers):  $17M over 2 years
• A'Shawn Robinson (Rams):  $17M over 2 years
• Melvin Gordon (Broncos):  $16M over 2 years
• Jimmy Graham (Bears):  $16M over 2 years
• Christian Kirksey (Packers):  $16M over 2 years
• Emmanuel Sanders (Saints):  $16M over 2 years

Did you try comparing that to past years, or is this just a list comparing it to nothing? e.g. $10MM is a lot of money, but when someone comparable last year got $12MM, and the cap has risen 5% since then, it really isn't. 

Also what matters with these are (a) year-one payment, (b) amount guaranteed, and (c) amount these players expected to get as recently as the first 5-10 days of March. Typically players get contracts that meet or exceed expected amounts. This year it was notably leaning towards FAs getting less than expected.

Put another way, these numbers are wholly without context. They just look like a lot when splashed up here (in no small part because more QBs were up for new contracts) -- never mind how much more they look when you are listing contract totals (that include money the players will never see) rather than year averages or even guaranteed averages. But when a premium FA tackle like Jack Conklin is widely expected to be pushing $17-19MM/year, and his single best offer is $14MM/year with the Browns, no it's not a typical FA period. 

The fact is this: total FA contract spending was the lowest since 2017 (2016 if you want to split hairs), and the number of players still with the franchise tag is 15 when the norm is 2-5. With a new CBA agreed upon formally on March 15th, this should have resulted in a major increase as the cap continued to rise (plus with certainty as to how much it would rise), and locking up the teams' best UFAs. Instead it didn't.

But really this also really seen at the extremes, not in a list of all the players who signed (which always looks like a lot without context). There just weren't these OMG record-breaking deals at the more expensive positions, even though that has annually been the norm. The main record-setter was at TE (Austin Hooper the first TE to exceed $10MM/year...at $10.5MM/yr) and I guess Hargrave at NT ($13MM/yr).

[Sperm Edwards]

@Jetsfan80 Just cherry-picking from the names you posted, because it's such a long list (though a shorter one than last year):

• Amari Cooper: Based on history, as a 25 year-old former top-5 pick who's a 4x probowler, should have set or at least met the market -- particularly with the next-best WR on the market scheduled to be Robby Anderson who was then reportedly seeking upwards of $14MM/yr (without industry articles calling him delusional). Instead Cooper fell not just $2MM/yr shy of Julio's $22M average, but also $23MM from Julio's $63MM fully guaranteed, from a future (i.e. non-free agent) 2019 extension for Julio Jones that locked him up from age 32-34, despite the NFL cap limit rising 5% and no longer any looming CBA concerns. Argue all you want that Jones is a better player - of course he is and has been - but these are contracts for the future not the past. In a normal offseason, given the major age disparity, Cooper's extension would have met or exceeded that one from Jones. Since it was signed after the legal tamper period, it also means he didn't get any better offer from any number of WR-desperate teams. 
• Arik Armstead: that $85MM deal seems like a big contract, but without context it's easy to lose sight on those numbers on a $198MM cap being basically the same contract the Jets handed to Mo Wilkerson 4 full offseasons earlier when the salary cap limit was $155MM (and with Mo not having full ability to shop himself around without other teams having to fork over picks to the Jets).
• Joe Schobert's $10MM/yr deal looks like a lot until you consider how much lower it is than Deion Jones, Myles Jack, and other similar (or lesser) production MLBs in the $14MM/yr range.
• Randall Cobb's contract didn't even exceed the contract for Quincy Enunwa over a year earlier, despite being far more accomplished. If you think that doesn't matter, just by saying yeah but that was Maccagnan, you're kidding yourself because agents always point to what others got before them. Ditto how he should have exceeded John Brown's $9MM/yr deal a year earlier. 
• Cory Littleton's $12MM/yr looks like a huge deal until you see this tackling machine who never misses a game got $1.5MM/yr less than Kwon Alexander got in 2019 (coming off a season where he missed 10 starts, which itself followed a year missing 4 starts, which was 2 years after he missed 4 starts as a rookie. Based on trends and comps, Littleton should have gotten $14-15MM/yr on the open market, not $12MM. 

I'm confident most are just like these, where the contracts fell short of expectations, though there are surely a couple exceptions driven by individual team need/situation (e.g. the Colts were uniquely huge high-end spenders for the Rivers-Buckner-Costanzo trio).

[jetstream23]

18 hours ago, NYJ1 said:

Actually, that's only correct for educated fans like you and I. Most team followers wouldn't know the difference and would be disappointed JD didn't sign Conklin. Your run of the mill fan sees big NFL names and automatically chalks the Jets not signing them as another reason why they are the Jets.

Yup.  It's about ROI.  How much do you get in return for what you pay.  As you said, many fans focus on big names.  They were the ones thrilled that Le'Veon Bell and CJ Mosley were signed to exorbitant contracts.  But what was the return?  How much did those two players contribute to the minimal success the Jets achieved last year?

 

[Sperm Edwards]

13 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Yup.  It's about ROI.  How much do you get in return for what you pay.  As you said, many fans focus on big names.  They were the ones thrilled that Le'Veon Bell and CJ Mosley were signed to exorbitant contracts.  But what was the return?  How much did those two players contribute to the minimal success the Jets achieved last year?

 

Totally. But we don't yet know what we have with 4/5 of the revamped OL. It's already been accepted as fact that this year will see vast improvements. I think we will, too, but it's hope not certainty.

• A rookie starting at LT (for all his immense upside - and stature - far more polished prospects had rookie issues)
• Seattle's backup starting at RT
• Oft-injured Winters coming back at RG; he's better than many credit him for when healthy, but the problem is that's not the norm
• Lewis had always had injury concerns (hence his availability last year)
• Van Roten at LG was cheap, but some of the talk is he's the one chiefly responsible for Paradis having his worst yet season by covering for the guard.
• Possibly Edoga improves but he's coming off a lousy rookie season
• The reality is McGovern is the only reliable + established young starter on the OL

I like the direction, and appreciate that Douglas is making real efforts on the line. It would have been tempting to bring back either Shell or Beachum for consistency, but I like that he didn't get back into new contracts with either one, which would have kept either one as starter by contract. Fant hasn't had much of a career yet, but I like taking a shot on someone new when you know last year's answers were not solutions.

 

[Sperm Edwards]

Know what I liked as much as anything?

The idea of hunting for need with the earlier picks rather than the pure BAP myopia stuff. When you're that high in the draft, need doesn't therefore mean poor value, since there are still so many high value picks at many positions.

When the talent starts to thin out after those first 50+ picks (give or take, depending on that year's talent pool), then you give more credence to BAP; the value then overcomes need when the separation between the two becomes more pronounced. There one might be choosing between next year's starting safety vs. next year's #3-4 WR or a workout warrior edge rusher with poor instincts, because the good ones were so highly coveted they already went in rounds 1-2. After that, into the mid/later rounds, fine to take a shot on guys with upside because why not, but not at the expense of what one feels is a sure starter. In the top round(s) though, that isn't the same equation, since even bad talent evaluators have a 50-50 shot of hitting pay dirt that early.

e.g. even if it was a prospect expected to get drafted in/around that slot, another safety in rounds 1-2, with all those value OTs/WRs on the board, would have made Jets fans more suicidal than usual. Taking one in round 3 after adding a LT and a #1-body WR, especially when that safety is - in theory - such good value there and further that he's a FS not a SS and might be able to rotate in at corner for a year, is not the same (even though suggesting the Jets take a safety with any pick has become blasphemy of late lol). Plus with upcoming contract decisions on both starting safeties in 2021, it's forward thinking to not paint himself into a corner where a GM has to then surrender his leverage with at least one of them. 

[slats]

18 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Know what I liked as much as anything?

The idea of hunting for need with the earlier picks rather than the pure BAP myopia stuff. When you're that high in the draft, need doesn't therefore mean poor value, since there are still so many high value picks at many positions.

When the talent starts to thin out after those first 50+ picks (give or take, depending on that year's talent pool), then you give more credence to BAP; the value then overcomes need when the separation between the two becomes more pronounced. There one might be choosing between next year's starting safety vs. next year's #3-4 WR or a workout warrior edge rusher with poor instincts, because the good ones were so highly coveted they already went in rounds 1-2. After that, into the mid/later rounds, fine to take a shot on guys with upside because why not, but not at the expense of what one feels is a sure starter. In the top round(s) though, that isn't the same equation, since even bad talent evaluators have a 50-50 shot of hitting pay dirt that early.

e.g. even if it was a prospect expected to get drafted in/around that slot, another safety in rounds 1-2, with all those value OTs/WRs on the board, would have made Jets fans more suicidal than usual. Taking one in round 3 after adding a LT and a #1-body WR, especially when that safety is - in theory - such good value there and further that he's a FS not a SS and might be able to rotate in at corner for a year, is not the same (even though suggesting the Jets take a safety with any pick has become blasphemy of late lol). Plus with upcoming contract decisions on both starting safeties in 2021, it's forward thinking to not paint himself into a corner where a GM has to then surrender his leverage with at least one of them. 

I think there's a lot of projection with Joe Douglas, much as there is with any new coach/GM that we hope will be successful. I think it's really hard to say that Douglas prioritized need over value at either of his first two picks when each of them could easily be considered the BAP in their respective spot. If Douglas passed on Becton at #11, it either would've been for Wirfs or one of the WRs. That's where the value was. Becton was a swing for the fences type pick. Wirfs was the safe "fills a need," pick, Becton is a shot at a HoF'er. 

My preference is BAP early, especially high in the first round when there's more perceived separation between the prospects. Now, that BAP needs to be weighed to some degree by positional value and need, but I don't want to see the GM regularly pass on higher end prospects to fill needs. And in JD's first draft, that seems to be what he did - from my perspective. 

The safety pick was obviously a head-scratcher at first, but it grew on me pretty quickly. A true FS that allows him to negotiate with either Adams or Maye going forward. What I really liked was the fact that his first four picks were all athletic freaks. Perine was the first mid-level athlete he drafted, but he was looking at an empty backfield in 2021 and needed a quality body there going forward. I definitely don't see Morgan as a hedge for Darnold, but -again- a swing for a potential long-term backup or maybe some valuable picks back down the road. The work on the OL isn't going to be done for a long time and Clark is a great depth/potential starter addition. Lots of love for Hall, another late need pick. And Mann, although I don't know what these guys didn't like about Edwards. I thought he was fine but Gase started looking to replace him immediately. 

I think it's gonna be a few years of drafting before we can determine whether JD prioritizes need or BAP, particularly early. This year, OT and WR were both the value and need picks. 

[Big_Slick]

19 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Yup.  It's about ROI.  How much do you get in return for what you pay.  As you said, many fans focus on big names.  They were the ones thrilled that Le'Veon Bell and CJ Mosley were signed to exorbitant contracts.  But what was the return?  How much did those two players contribute to the minimal success the Jets achieved last year?

 

This is true and I thought the Bell signing was moronic, 1) Macc bid against himself 2) there was no way Bell could have been effective behind last years OL. Mosley had to be overpaid to sign with the Jets, we'll see if he's worth the $$$ this if he's recovered from his injury.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, slats said:

I think there's a lot of projection with Joe Douglas, much as there is with any new coach/GM that we hope will be successful. I think it's really hard to say that Douglas prioritized need over value at either of his first two picks when each of them could easily be considered the BAP in their respective spot. If Douglas passed on Becton at #11, it either would've been for Wirfs or one of the WRs. That's where the value was. Becton was a swing for the fences type pick. Wirfs was the safe "fills a need," pick, Becton is a shot at a HoF'er. 

My preference is BAP early, especially high in the first round when there's more perceived separation between the prospects. Now, that BAP needs to be weighed to some degree by positional value and need, but I don't want to see the GM regularly pass on higher end prospects to fill needs. And in JD's first draft, that seems to be what he did - from my perspective. 

The safety pick was obviously a head-scratcher at first, but it grew on me pretty quickly. A true FS that allows him to negotiate with either Adams or Maye going forward. What I really liked was the fact that his first four picks were all athletic freaks. Perine was the first mid-level athlete he drafted, but he was looking at an empty backfield in 2021 and needed a quality body there going forward. I definitely don't see Morgan as a hedge for Darnold, but -again- a swing for a potential long-term backup or maybe some valuable picks back down the road. The work on the OL isn't going to be done for a long time and Clark is a great depth/potential starter addition. Lots of love for Hall, another late need pick. And Mann, although I don't know what these guys didn't like about Edwards. I thought he was fine but Gase started looking to replace him immediately. 

I think it's gonna be a few years of drafting before we can determine whether JD prioritizes need or BAP, particularly early. This year, OT and WR were both the value and need picks. 

Understood but I think there's less not more separation early when going pure BAP. They're all very highly rated that high up, so unless you're going overboard to push need (e.g. taking the 27th ranked prospect at #11 because it's the team's biggest need) then I'm less concerned because of the high success rate overall that early.

Put it this way: if your greatest need is at LT but (use whatever rating scale) you have him only at 8.5 while there's a Maccagnan-position DT/ILB/SS with a 9.0 rating. That might seem to be a significant separation as you make the pick, and if the separation actually manifests much further as they turn pro then perhaps the ILB/SS is the right pick. But I'd contend if both positions are needs, and they're that close and each pans out exactly as expected, filling a LT hole with an 8.5 pro LT is more valuable to the team than filling a SS hole with a 9.0 pro SS. Even more so since only one of these positions can routinely be swapped on & off the field based on situation or matchup. QB and OL are unique in that way; there's no regular subbing in & out. So a lower ranked prospect at these positions should get bumped more when you're this high up in the draft. 

Later in the draft I expect those rating separations to be more prominent. Say at the top of round 3, you're still going to have players who dropped due to other GMs chasing needs that differ from your own with their own positional value ratings help sort their lists out. So then it might not be a difference between 9.0 and 8.5; the idea - if Douglas made the right choice here - is a 7.5 FS prospect and a 6.5 WR prospect, with the added caveat that the latter probably has a higher bust factor in general. The former is a solid (and maybe a one-time PB) starter where you can focus on other needs; the other is Robby Anderson: he's ok, and sometimes has a game-changing play or great game, but isn't consistent and really you're looking for an upgrade every offseason.

It's all just speculation when you're getting that nuanced in terms of close player grades. I don't subscribe to the "it's all a crap shoot" silliness, otherwise trading down would always be the smart move until you've accumulated 15 picks in rounds 5-7 each year. But some positions where we've got holes need reliable starters more than dynamic/awesome ones.

[slats]

6 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Put it this way: if your greatest need is at LT but (use whatever rating scale) you have him only at 8.5 while there's a Maccagnan-position DT/ILB/SS with a 9.0 rating.

Like I said, positional value has to be part of the BAP equation. So a LT at 8.5 would be my pick over a SS that was a 9. The flip side is you're drafting in the middle of the first with a need at guard, and there's a guy there with an 8.5 rating, but there's also a WR or CB there with a similar grade, maybe a bit higher, but those aren't as big a need. I'd still take the WR or CB because of my perceived BAP value there, and plan on my guard in the next couple rounds. 

We're in agreement on the value of SS/ILBs. I think DTs deserve to be up in the more highly valued positions, too, but get that Jet fans are jaded. 

[Sperm Edwards]

@slats I agree 100% there's a lot of projection of what people want to see, and it's just one draft so it's too early to tell if Douglas was in fact going pure BAP or if he was filling needs in rounds 1-2 given those guys were far from reaches at either slot. I can make an argument for either one but really we'll find out over time.

In terms of which is wiser? An example I used in the past, before we drafted Becton, is for LT. Of course I'd like it if Becton becomes some HOF tackle. At #11 I'd be satisfied with Becton if we only got several years of Jason Fabini level play out of him (sans back problems and bar fights in Huntington): solid but not elite pass and run blocking, occasionally needs help against unique edge rushers, and makes the occasional dumb penalty. I value that plus an average SS over even an all pro SS plus say Beachum or worse. However in the top 3-ish I don't know how bullish I am on a LT unless the next-best QB, DL, WR, CB (need position factored in) would just be a reach there.

Ultimately my main reason for more BAP in the middle rounds is that as the draft goes on there are fewer and fewer players who'll ever be starter-worthy (let alone above average/star players) and it's hard enough to nail which those will be without handicapping oneself by limiting the selection to one of just a few positions based on need. I'm not saying never reach for the gold, but if it's me I wait until the draft has exhausted itself of legit 2nd round prospects slipping before I start taking chances on raw meat with elite combine numbers in rounds 3-4. After that, yeah sure swing for the fences if someone's upside is so tantalizing at a need position, since a typical solid pick there is just a guy subbing in & out semi-respectably until his rookie contract is up. 

 

 

[Paradis]

Same trash i read about:

• Macc with his 1st year putting Fits/Marshall/Decker combo on the field... *Yawn*
• Idzik when he saved us from Tanny's "salary cap hell"

 

Blah fcking blah... lets see what 2020 looks like with Joe's Gase led squad before i get my knees and stretch my jaw muscles. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Same trash i read about:

• Macc with his 1st year putting Fits/Marshall/Decker combo on the field... *Yawn*
• Idzik when he saved us from Tanny's "salary cap hell"

 

Blah fcking blah... lets see what 2020 looks like with Joe's Gase led squad before i get my knees and stretch my jaw muscles. 

 

The Mims pick didn't at least earn a handy?

[pdxgreen]

One thing I think people are overlooking is the amount of mid tier free agents and former players he scouted from his former organizations. Just the sheer volume.  That's a GM desperate to upgrade the roster quality in a short time.  It may not lead to a radical 180 degree turn but he is sure as hell trying.  

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, slats said:

Like I said, positional value has to be part of the BAP equation. So a LT at 8.5 would be my pick over a SS that was a 9. The flip side is you're drafting in the middle of the first with a need at guard, and there's a guy there with an 8.5 rating, but there's also a WR or CB there with a similar grade, maybe a bit higher, but those aren't as big a need. I'd still take the WR or CB because of my perceived BAP value there, and plan on my guard in the next couple rounds. 

We're in agreement on the value of SS/ILBs. I think DTs deserve to be up in the more highly valued positions, too, but get that Jet fans are jaded. 

Yeah I think Jets fans are jaded because DT had been taken so many times over & over at the expense of the entire offense. Yeah at the time you're making one pick not one of 5 first round picks over time, but at some point the bigger picture has to set in, and if the clear value pick is DT before a steep drop-off you can't possibly be the only one thinking so, and there's always someone looking to move up. I've seen teams part with extra picks for lower-pay positions than DT. 

As far as BAP/need at a position like ILB/SS, I don't know that I'm ever drafting one in the top 10. Only time I'd consider it is if this was the final 1-2 pieces of the puzzle, meaning the team is a serious contender even without this upgrade, and this should be the thing that hopefully pushes us over the top. Beyond that, let someone else make that selection and I'd take their other picks in return. Not the least of reasons being it's a position to be filled at will via FA with a mid-rounder to groom and sub in. QB, LT, WR1, true CB1... yeah that's not so easy to just find in FA, and when they're available they get plenty of interested parties so unlike the draft, that player has to choose you as much as you choose the player. 

I'm not advocating reaching 15 slots in round 1 because dammit I want the best WR I can draft. It's that if dammit I want the BAP WR (and not the general BAP) because of an extreme need + confidence that the BAP WR is a good one and not just the least stinky turd, then I'm moving down at least 8-10 slots or more to pick the same player and net another day 2 pick - or the best pick I can get - in the process. And sometimes that means getting below chart value, but accepting it's still the right move because you'll end up with the same player plus another free one (or more). But I'm not taking a DT when I've already got 2-3 recent 1st round DT (or DT-DE) players on the friggin' roster. 

Presumably all teams keep two charts: theirs and a best guess at the consensus so you know when you're taking a guy you could have gotten later. If you're the Jets (or as of today, let's call it the pre-Douglas Jets to be fair) then you should keep both such lists and then burn/delete the first one before the draft starts. 

[Paradis]

7 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

The Mims pick didn't at least earn a handy?

hah! touché.

Point made. I'm not down/pessimistic on JD. Dare I even say optimistic? Didn't like playing with fire and trading back for Mims, but whatevs.

My rant was more about this obligatory year 1 offseason puff pieces about "How General Manager X turned the Jets around" 

Maybe lets post .500 eh? 

[T0mShane]

People working so hard to pretend Gase isn’t driving the bus. SAD

[BurnleyJet]

On 6/9/2020 at 2:52 PM, More Cowbell said:

JD is getting praise right IMO for addressing the obvious,  the OL and WR positions. Both spots were dry as sand on the roster. I hope like Hell Mims is a legit #1 but a lot of teams looked elsewhere when it came to addressing pass catchers before he was selected, especially  in the second round. That has me worried. Becton i also have concerns with but he was the obvious pick if you were not going to take one of the top 3 WR's. I just worry about him staying in shape and healthy. 

Basically what I see in JD though is a guy that goes in with a strategy  and sticks to it no matter what the other teams are doing. That is refreshing but as mentioned,  we need to see Mims turn into a legit WR, Becton to be a cornerstone LT, his FA additions make an impact and for the team to move forward. It will probably  be 2 years before any of that is realized but it does look good on paper. 

Nope, not worried, two great receivers below drafted in and around that pick.

In a re-draft, do you think they are taken higher? - I’m not saying Mims is going to be that good, but What I am saying is teams don’t always get their Draft boards right.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

NFL Draft:2017 / Round: 2 / Pick: 62

Michael Thomas 

NFL Draft:2016 / Round: 2 / Pick: 47

Denzel Mims

NFL Draft:2020 / Round: 2 / Pick: 59

[nico002]

Can we give some credit to Gase here? He did fire Mac and hire Douglas after all...

[More Cowbell]

4 hours ago, BurnleyJet said:

Nope, not worried, two great receivers below drafted in and around that pick.

In a re-draft, do you think they are taken higher? - I’m not saying Mims is going to be that good, but What I am saying is teams don’t always get their Draft boards right.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

NFL Draft:2017 / Round: 2 / Pick: 62

Michael Thomas 

NFL Draft:2016 / Round: 2 / Pick: 47

Denzel Mims

NFL Draft:2020 / Round: 2 / Pick: 59

I didn't say where he was picked had me worried, it was the amount of WR taken before him in the same round