Draft value chart says......

[Scott Dierking]

Pretty fair deal for both sides.

 

I used Ourlads draft value chart:

Used Seattle draft position for 2021 and 2022 at #25 overall.

1st round value 2021=720 points

1st round value 2022 (less 5% value)= 684 points

3rd round pick 2021= 145 points

Mcdougald worth a 5th round pick at Seattle slot= 30 points

Used Jets 4th  round draft position for 2021 at #13 = -76 points

Draft value of trade = 1503 points which equates to the 7th pick overall

 

Granted, there is a lot of subjectivity on my part here, but with the devaluing of Adams (less time on a rookie deal), and the devaluing of the future 1st round pick, and giving Mcdougald a 5th round current grade (he was UDFA), the deal sounds about right to value.

@Sperm Edwards

 

[Sperm Edwards]

14 hours ago, Scott Dierking said:

Pretty fair deal for both sides.

 

I used Ourlads draft value chart:

Used Seattle draft position for 2021 and 2022 at #25 overall.

1st round value 2021=720 points

1st round value 2022 (less 5% value)= 684 points

3rd round pick 2021= 145 points

Mcdougald worth a 5th round pick at Seattle slot= 30 points

Used Jets 4th  round draft position for 2021 at #13 = -76 points

Draft value of trade = 1503 points which equates to the 7th pick overall

 

Granted, there is a lot of subjectivity on my part here, but with the devaluing of Adams (less time on a rookie deal), and the devaluing of the future 1st round pick, and giving Mcdougald a 5th round current grade (he was UDFA), the deal sounds about right to value.

@Sperm Edwards

 

I think it’s a damn solid deal for us as well. My whole question was weighing it against a potential trade for Dallas’ #17 pick, not whether or not Douglas was right to pull the trigger on this yesterday. That was it. Just like passing on a 4th rounder for R.Anderson, then not extending him at that time, and then not making a particularly strong push for him in March.

So even if Douglas did turn down #17 in April, because a lone 1st rounder wasn’t as good a headline as a 1st plus more, and even if that was worth more on paper, here in late July Douglas is in the spot he’s in now, not the spot he was in back in April. Looked at through that lens, the right move was clear. 

[BROOKLYN JET]

5 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I think it’s a damn solid deal for us as well. My whole question was weighing it against a potential trade for Dallas’ #17 pick, not whether or not Douglas was right to pull the trigger on this yesterday. That was it. Just like passing on a 4th rounder for R.Anderson, then not extending him at that time, and then not making a particularly strong push for him in March.

So even if Douglas did turn down #17 in April, because a lone 1st rounder wasn’t as good a headline as a 1st plus more, and even if that was worth more on paper, here in late July Douglas is in the spot he’s in now, not the spot he was in back in April. Looked at through that lens, the right move was clear. 

Maybe Douglas looks at it as better not to take less and set precedent, he may feel that helps him get better deals in the long run. 

So he's willing to risk missing out on a 4th or a 1st, because he believes that will help him get more in another deal.

[rangerous]

On 7/26/2020 at 7:23 AM, Scott Dierking said:

Pretty fair deal for both sides.

 

I used Ourlads draft value chart:

Used Seattle draft position for 2021 and 2022 at #25 overall.

1st round value 2021=720 points

1st round value 2022 (less 5% value)= 684 points

3rd round pick 2021= 145 points

Mcdougald worth a 5th round pick at Seattle slot= 30 points

Used Jets 4th  round draft position for 2021 at #13 = -76 points

Draft value of trade = 1503 points which equates to the 7th pick overall

 

Granted, there is a lot of subjectivity on my part here, but with the devaluing of Adams (less time on a rookie deal), and the devaluing of the future 1st round pick, and giving Mcdougald a 5th round current grade (he was UDFA), the deal sounds about right to value.

@Sperm Edwards

 

i don't know a lot about how the draft works or player values but i have said that i thought whatever deal the jets made had to come close to the 6th pick in any draft.  apparently this one is coming in at 7.  not too shabby.  as they say in the stock market world he who holds out for top dollar is a fool.

[EM31]

On 7/26/2020 at 7:23 AM, Scott Dierking said:

Pretty fair deal for both sides.

 

I used Ourlads draft value chart:

Used Seattle draft position for 2021 and 2022 at #25 overall.

1st round value 2021=720 points

1st round value 2022 (less 5% value)= 684 points

3rd round pick 2021= 145 points

Mcdougald worth a 5th round pick at Seattle slot= 30 points

Used Jets 4th  round draft position for 2021 at #13 = -76 points

Draft value of trade = 1503 points which equates to the 7th pick overall

 

Granted, there is a lot of subjectivity on my part here, but with the devaluing of Adams (less time on a rookie deal), and the devaluing of the future 1st round pick, and giving Mcdougald a 5th round current grade (he was UDFA), the deal sounds about right to value.

@Sperm Edwards

 

So I think this is solid work but it leaves out one huge factor.  A big part of picking 7th overall or 5th overall is that you get a premium player and you get to control him on a rookie deal for five years or more with price certainty.  In other words if you do manage to hit on the right guy then you get to control him for years and for cheap.

Seattle only gets to use the tail end of that value.

<edited to add>

[Sperm Edwards]

9 hours ago, BROOKLYN JET said:

Maybe Douglas looks at it as better not to take less and set precedent, he may feel that helps him get better deals in the long run. 

So he's willing to risk missing out on a 4th or a 1st, because he believes that will help him get more in another deal.

As I’ve acknowledged, there’s no evidence there was any deal to be had with Dallas for their 1st rounder this year (nor that even if there was, that it was even-up Adams for the pick). The whole discussion just stemmed from an “if” post. But “if” in those cases, then he believed he’d get more and instead got less.

Being a line-in-the-sand type only a good thing when it pans out. e.g. Idzik used to stick to his guns like that (for weeks the top offer for Revis didn’t involve a 1st rounder; he got it by not caving. But that same attitude also caused him to miss out on some players he needed and wanted, and probably affected trades up & down in his drafts).

• So with Anderson - a player he was fielding calls for in trade - a 4th rounder wasn’t deemed enough. Instead he got nothing, which means starting at the point the Jets were already eliminated from the playoffs, in effect he traded a 4th round pick to get half a year out of a player to whom he’d make no extension offers.
• He also turned down an offer, allegedly from Baltimore, of “blockbuster of picks it thought New York could not turn down” for QW (though that was at least in part because they just paid him >$20MM which would accelerate to - and thus hamper - the upcoming 2020 season’s spending ability). If QW starts to play like the beast he was drafted to be, then turning that down was a smart move. If not...well the 2020 offseason was not $20MM short since there was enough to be moved around in others’ contracts to have the same FA period he just had. And then this would mean he gave up an entire draft’s worth of picks - and possibly more - for QW. We all hope he was right to stick with this player instead.
• Then this one, which is a pure hypothetical based on Dallas showing serious interest in Adams before the trade deadline last year — indicating for all his talk to the contrary, by then Douglas caught wind of what Adams was seeking on an extension, how early he wanted that extension, and had already decided an eventual Adams extension was just a fallback position & what he was seeking was a pair of 1s. In this case, because it was future 1s, they carry less trade value on paper, but it’s still a good haul for a miserable player who isn’t worth the extension he was seeking.

Sometimes the reason these guys turn down an offer is they catch wind of someone else having even greater interest, even if it never makes it to the public. Just like there’s every likelihood this offer from Seattle wasn’t their opening offer, suggesting Douglas turned down something very close to it, yet we never heard a whisper about it.

I’m thrilled with Douglas as GM. That doesn’t therefore mean holding out for more doesn’t have its downsides.

[slats]

I’m not concerned with the so-called draft pick trade chart value. If I was, I’d devalue the 2021 picks by one round and the 2022 picks by two rounds and then sit around and pout. 
 
Joe Douglas is taking the long view. The two first rounders over the next two years is a better deal for him in his building (it’s really not rebuilding at this point) of the team. He’s got a six year contract. He can be patient, and he appears to be good at that. When the draft comes around next year, I’m gonna be pretty psyched about those five top 100 picks. When 2022 rolls around and we still get another first rounder for this guy? That’ll be nice! 
 
Really, Jamal never should’ve been taken at #6 overall to begin with. That was a dumb pick, no matter how good he is, because of the diminished value of his position. You’re building a football team and take a 6’1”-215lb dude who runs a 4.56 40? To play safety? None of the other 300 eligible players was a better option there? 
 
Only Pete Carroll, and how outsized love for safeties, would ever make this deal. Love to know what other offers were on the table. 

[Biggs]

Offseason distraction, priceless.

[GKnight83]

Thanks!  I was wondering about this but was not sufficiently motivated to do the math.

[Kleckineau]

If Russell Wilson  gets dinged and misses parts or all of a season the picks could potentially become top 10 or better.

(disclaimer...I am a Wilson fan and hope he stays healthy)

[playtowinthegame]

As of right now my 2nd favorite team will be whoever is playing the Seahawks. 

[playtowinthegame]

3 minutes ago, Kleckineau said:

If Russell Wilson  gets dinged and misses parts or all of a season the picks could potentially become top 10 or better.

(disclaimer...I am a Wilson fan and hope he stays healthy)

I like Wilson too....great football player and even better human being. With that said, I will not shed a tear if he was to miss an extended period of time which helps our position in the draft.

[Sperm Edwards]

11 minutes ago, rangerous said:

i don't know a lot about how the draft works or player values but i have said that i thought whatever deal the jets made had to come close to the 6th pick in any draft.  apparently this one is coming in at 7.  not too shabby.  as they say in the stock market world he who holds out for top dollar is a fool.

I’m thrilled with the trade, but this is not anywhere close to the 7th pick this year. In terms of trade value, on paper it’s a lot closer to the 7th pick in round 2 in the current draft (since we gave up the player this year not in future years).

You can move the exact slot up or down 5 slots as you see fit, since we won’t know the exact pick until the seasons are over, but “this one is coming in at”:

• 2021 pick #24 = 2020 pick #24 = 340
• 2022 pick #24 = 2020 pick #24 = 150
• 2021 upgrade from presumed middle round 4 to pick #24 in round 3 = roughly the value of 2021 pick #24 in round 4, which = 2020 pick #24 in round 5 = 30 (not factoring in 2 rounds of comp picks but stick with this). 
• McDougald = has no trade value as a 30 year-old SS with 1 year left on his contract, coming off a down season. He would have been cut after this trade if he wasn’t thrown in. In one’s dreams he carries a 2020 6th round value, so let’s even generously throw in 20 chart value points here just to be nice. 
• 340 + 150 + 30 + 20 = 540 chart points = pick #36 overall = pick #4 in round 2 

There is no way that any team would ever surrender its current 7th overall pick in exchange for a perennial playoff team’s upcoming 2 future 1st rounders a year and 2 years later. Still less when that perennial playoff team just replaced one of its weakest starters with (what we’re told is) the league’s best starter at the position. 

Curious about pasting that expression here, since Douglas is the one who held out for top dollar until after the 2020 draft was over. It’s a fun expression to use on someone who lost, after the fact, but no one says it when someone wisely held out for more. The real problem with that expression is following it to its natural end leads to far more foolish behavior: namely, always taking the first offer one gets.  

[Biggs]

1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I’m thrilled with the trade, but this is not anywhere close to the 7th pick this year. In terms of trade value, on paper it’s a lot closer to the 7th pick in round 2 in the current draft (since we gave up the player this year not in future years).

You can move the exact slot up or down 5 slots as you see fit, since we won’t know the exact pick until the seasons are over, but “this one is coming in at”:

• 2021 pick #24 = 2020 pick #24 = 340
• 2022 pick #24 = 2020 pick #24 = 150
• 2021 upgrade from presumed middle round 4 to pick #24 in round 3 = roughly the value of 2021 pick #24 in round 4, which = 2020 pick #24 in round 5 = 30 (not factoring in 2 rounds of comp picks but stick with this). 
• McDougald = has no trade value as a 30 year-old SS with 1 year left on his contract, coming off a down season. He would have been cut after this trade if he wasn’t thrown in. In one’s dreams he carries a 2020 6th round value, so let’s even generously throw in 20 chart value points here just to be nice. 
• 340 + 150 + 30 + 20 = 540 chart points = pick #36 overall = pick #4 in round 2 

There is no way that any team would ever surrender its current 7th overall pick in exchange for a perennial playoff team’s upcoming 2 future 1st rounders a year and 2 years later. Still less when that perennial playoff team just replaced one of its weakest starters with (what we’re told is) the league’s best starter at the position. 

Curious about pasting that expression here, since Douglas is the one who held out for top dollar until after the 2020 draft was over. It’s a fun expression to use on someone who lost, after the fact, but no one says it when someone wisely held out for more. The real problem with that expression is following it to its natural end leads to far more foolish behavior: namely, always taking the first offer one gets.  

This year is very much in doubt.  If the season ends up being cancelled and we have a draft the trade swings much more in our favor.  Adams is a year older and the Jets picks move up a year.  This year is different.  

[slats]

11 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

As of right now my 2nd favorite team will be whoever is playing the Seahawks. 

I’ve always liked the Seahawks. They and the Bucs were the first two expansion teams I was cognitive of, and the Bucs were gay.  
 

But yeah, Jim Zorn, Steve Largent, loves those guys. And today I really like Pete and Wilson, too. 
 
That said, I’m with you. Love to see them have a down year. What’s great is that if there is any struggling going on over there, an as yet unpaid Jamal Adams will probably make things worse. 

[rangerous]

6 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I’m thrilled with the trade, but this is not anywhere close to the 7th pick this year. In terms of trade value, on paper it’s a lot closer to the 7th pick in round 2 in the current draft (since we gave up the player this year not in future years).

You can move the exact slot up or down 5 slots as you see fit, since we won’t know the exact pick until the seasons are over, but “this one is coming in at”:

• 2021 pick #24 = 2020 pick #24 = 340
• 2022 pick #24 = 2020 pick #24 = 150
• 2021 upgrade from presumed middle round 4 to pick #24 in round 3 = roughly the value of 2021 pick #24 in round 4, which = 2020 pick #24 in round 5 = 30 (not factoring in 2 rounds of comp picks but stick with this). 
• McDougald = has no trade value as a 30 year-old SS with 1 year left on his contract, coming off a down season. He would have been cut after this trade if he wasn’t thrown in. In one’s dreams he carries a 2020 6th round value, so let’s even generously throw in 20 chart value points here just to be nice. 
• 340 + 150 + 30 + 20 = 540 chart points = pick #36 overall = pick #4 in round 2 

There is no way that any team would ever surrender its current 7th overall pick in exchange for a perennial playoff team’s upcoming 2 future 1st rounders a year and 2 years later. Still less when that perennial playoff team just replaced one of its weakest starters with (what we’re told is) the league’s best starter at the position. 

Curious about pasting that expression here, since Douglas is the one who held out for top dollar until after the 2020 draft was over. It’s a fun expression to use on someone who lost, after the fact, but no one says it when someone wisely held out for more. The real problem with that expression is following it to its natural end leads to far more foolish behavior: namely, always taking the first offer one gets.  

thanks for the clarification.

not holding out for top dollar may lead people to snatch the first deal but i think it means that more often people will try to squeeze that last dollar out of a stock trade and then sit in wonderment when the stock tanks shortly after.

[Sperm Edwards]

44 minutes ago, slats said:

I’m not concerned with the so-called draft pick trade chart value. If I was, I’d devalue the 2021 picks by one round and the 2022 picks by two rounds and then sit around and pout. 
 
Joe Douglas is taking the long view. The two first rounders over the next two years is a better deal for him in his building (it’s really not rebuilding at this point) of the team. He’s got a six year contract. He can be patient, and he appears to be good at that. When the draft comes around next year, I’m gonna be pretty psyched about those five top 100 picks. When 2022 rolls around and we still get another first rounder for this guy? That’ll be nice! 
 
Really, Jamal never should’ve been taken at #6 overall to begin with. That was a dumb pick, no matter how good he is, because of the diminished value of his position. You’re building a football team and take a 6’1”-215lb dude who runs a 4.56 40? To play safety? None of the other 300 eligible players was a better option there? 
 
Only Pete Carroll, and how outsized love for safeties, would ever make this deal. Love to know what other offers were on the table. 

I’m not pouting at all. I’m 100% thrilled with it. I just like being contrarian. You know this lol.

And 100% agree on Carroll. Yes that’s one reason he gave up so much. The other is his total disregard to any wisdom in how to use his 1st round picks. He loves to parlay his 1st rounders into more picks. That’s fine when you’re starting way up top in round 1 with a draft chart that isn’t at all linear. That’s how Indy can move down just 3 slots and get three more high picks for their troubles.

Carroll loves to be the trading-down draft dealer and it almost always blows up in his face. He should be combining his picks to move up to slots that give him a greater chance of success because he needs it. I think that colored his decision on Adams as well.

Take your pick of any Seattle 1st rounders (or the picks they turned into) for the past drafts since Russell Wilson got him picking in the 20s and 30s every year. Weighed against those draftees, if you think that he’d have drafted more of the same, making this trade was as much a no-brainer for Seattle as it was for the Jets.

[section314]

1 hour ago, rangerous said:

i don't know a lot about how the draft works or player values but i have said that i thought whatever deal the jets made had to come close to the 6th pick in any draft.  apparently this one is coming in at 7.  not too shabby.  as they say in the stock market world he who holds out for top dollar is a fool.

Or, put another way......"bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered."

[THE BARON]

Adams was not a bad pick.  At the time, the only guy on the board I would have preferred was Lattimore (CB).  I wasn't too enthused with a second safety as their second overall pick in that draft.  Thought they should have gone WR.  Taking two secondary positions as your 1 and 2 with so many needs to fill was really foolish.  For me, it was a harbinger that Mr. Coffee was the wrong guy.

[slats]

6 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I’m not pouting at all. I’m 100% thrilled with it. I just like being contrarian. You know this lol.

I know it seemed like that was pointed at you, but it was merely in your general direction, lol. I understand the point you’re making and agree with it to a certain extent, but I also believe those two first round picks are actual first round picks that should, in theory, help build the team better than a single first round pick in 2020 would’ve. I have to believe that that’s JD’s thought process, too. 
 
I’m becoming cautiously more optimistic that a season might happen. I think some college football will happen. And I have faith in Joe D to build the team going forward. Seeing this draft class pan out this year (fingers crossed) will have me near feverish for next year’s draft. 

[Sperm Edwards]

5 minutes ago, Biggs said:

This year is very much in doubt.  If the season ends up being cancelled and we have a draft the trade swings much more in our favor.  Adams is a year older and the Jets picks move up a year.  This year is different.  

I think it’s a long shot at this point that they’re cancelling the season. It was “very much” in doubt 2+ months ago. Now there is still some doubt but nothing like it was. The thing that’s most in doubt is whether or not there’ll be just a couple or if it’s no games that have fans in the stands. But I admit I’m not as up on these developments as many/most.

And as much as this year is in doubt, this college season can be just as much in doubt (if not more, since if there’s a mutation + spread for the worse in the fall, colleges will be more pressured than the NFL to close again, and move classes back to Zoom & Google Meet). Those top few football prospects entering this college season might be easier to gauge, but these won’t be top 5-10 picks we’re getting from Seattle. That 2021 1st rounder we get from Seattle may end up going to a prospect that would have been a 4th rounder (or worse) if the full college season was played under normal conditions.

If the season is canceled the only thing that clearly swings the trade in our favor is we didn’t lose a year of Adams (there will be no discrepancy between the year we gave up the player and the year we start getting picks for the player). 

Adams is 24. He turns 25 in October, is already playing at his peak level, and doesn’t play a position that hits a wall & drops off suddenly at age 28. His age is a total non-factor.

[slats]

8 minutes ago, section314 said:

Or, put another way......"bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered."

Oh! So I’m the pig! Now I get it! 

[slats]

2 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

Adams was not a bad pick.  At the time, the only guy on the board I would have preferred was Lattimore (CB).  I wasn't too enthused with a second safety as their second overall pick in that draft.  Thought they should have gone WR.  Taking two secondary positions as your 1 and 2 with so many needs to fill was really foolish.  For me, it was a harbinger that Mr. Coffee was the wrong guy.

Yeah? Those two QBs didn’t interest you at all? You were ready to roll with Hackenberg? 

[section314]

1 minute ago, slats said:

Oh! So I’m the pig! Now I get it! 

LOL.....was just paraphrasing an old axiom from my 30 year career on Wall St.

[Sperm Edwards]

Just now, slats said:

I know it seemed like that was pointed at you, but it was merely in your general direction, lol. I understand the point you’re making and agree with it to a certain extent, but I also believe those two first round picks are actual first round picks that should, in theory, help build the team better than a single first round pick in 2020 would’ve. I have to believe that that’s JD’s thought process, too. 
 
I’m becoming cautiously more optimistic that a season might happen. I think some college football will happen. And I have faith in Joe D to build the team going forward. Seeing this draft class pan out this year (fingers crossed) will have me near feverish for next year’s draft. 

lol I have a guilty conscience so yes I thought it was directed at me.

That thought process, though, is no different than drafting one’s original slot every year vs. trading down for a higher pick in a future draft. Instead of trading down for the pick that became Mims, Douglas should have been furiously trading for a future 1st rounder, regardless of the slot, next year or the year after. 

Sometimes trading for next year’s picks for this year’s pick/player turns out great, as the future pick ends up being much better than expected. Sometimes not so, as Oakland found out in the Mack trade. They probably lost the equivalent of a 1st rounder plus another day 2 pick (at least) when Chicago went from 5 wins to 12 with the Mack trade sandwiched in between.

We don’t have that type of downside. The worst that can happen is Seattle is in the next 2 superbowls and even then it isn’t nearly the loss in draft capital that Oakland realized. And yes while it seems really unlikely where we sit today, it is possible there’s a total collapse in Seattle and one of them turns into a future top 10 pick. 

[THE BARON]

16 minutes ago, slats said:

Yeah? Those two QBs didn’t interest you at all? You were ready to roll with Hackenberg? 

Actually, no... I figured Trubisky was a total reach and that he would not work out.  I figured Mahomes would be a lot like Joe Flacco.  Big strong arm, but not complete.  Figured Watson was also a reach.   

I would not have drafted any of them even though I knew the Jets needed a QB.

Understand if you want to call BS, but the guy I wanted was DARNOLD.  Too early for him to come out in 2017, but since that time I was hoping the Jets would find a way to get him in 2018.  

I was VERY happy and surprised when Cleveland took the crotch grabber and totally stunned when the Giants passed on taking Sam.

Mr. Coffee got lucky and I got what I wanted

[Warfish]

On 7/26/2020 at 7:23 AM, Scott Dierking said:

Pretty fair deal for both sides.

 

I used Ourlads draft value chart:

Used Seattle draft position for 2021 and 2022 at #25 overall.

1st round value 2021=720 points

1st round value 2022 (less 5% value)= 684 points

3rd round pick 2021= 145 points

Mcdougald worth a 5th round pick at Seattle slot= 30 points

Used Jets 4th  round draft position for 2021 at #13 = -76 points

Draft value of trade = 1503 points which equates to the 7th pick overall

 

Granted, there is a lot of subjectivity on my part here, but with the devaluing of Adams (less time on a rookie deal), and the devaluing of the future 1st round pick, and giving Mcdougald a 5th round current grade (he was UDFA), the deal sounds about right to value.

@Sperm Edwards

 

Nice analysis, honestly.  

I look at it like this:

1. Seattle gets a great player who might be the "luxury last piece" that could help them get over the top and win a title, given how good that team is.  They paid alot of future for it, in terms of picks and (likely) cap space when they re-up Adams.

2. The Jets get a semi-equivalent pass-defense (definitely not rush defense) Safety back, and ton of great picks and a huge surplus of cap space to help continue the Douglas-led rebuild of the overall team talent the next two years.  Four #1 picks, a ton of top 3 round picks in total, and an extra approx. 13 million in cap space we didn't spend on Adams to spend elsewhere as needed.  Unlike Seattle, we're not one elite Strong Safety away from a title, and by trading away this luxury asset, we now have a chance at a number of other, more vital position assets with which to get back to title contention much sooner.

It's a good trade for both sides.  If Seattle gets the the Super Bowl this year, all that cost is worth it.  If the Jets draft well the next two years, giving up Adams was worth it.  

Hard to fault this one really.  Good for both sides IMO.

[slats]

2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

We don’t have that type of downside. The worst that can happen is Seattle is in the next 2 superbowls and even then it isn’t nearly the loss in draft capital that Oakland realized. And yes while it seems really unlikely where we sit today, it is possible there’s a total collapse in Seattle and one of them turns into a future top 10 pick. 

Seattle’s a perennial contender, and that shouldn’t change much with Wilson at QB. But that division is tough and their schedule is no cakewalk. Like you say, I’m not too concerned about the difference between the 25th and 32nd pick, but a lot can happen in this league and Seattle could easily have a down year that tilts the trade even more in the Jets’ favor. Not counting on that, but it would be nice.  

[Greensleeves]

I don't think you can throw draft pick numbers on an established starter in this league like McDougal, who will start immediately and has out performed his draft status significantly. That's why this formula doesn't make sense to me. 

[k-met57]

On 7/26/2020 at 7:23 AM, Scott Dierking said:

Pretty fair deal for both sides.

 

I used Ourlads draft value chart:

Used Seattle draft position for 2021 and 2022 at #25 overall.

1st round value 2021=720 points

1st round value 2022 (less 5% value)= 684 points

3rd round pick 2021= 145 points

Mcdougald worth a 5th round pick at Seattle slot= 30 points

Used Jets 4th  round draft position for 2021 at #13 = -76 points

Draft value of trade = 1503 points which equates to the 7th pick overall

 

Granted, there is a lot of subjectivity on my part here, but with the devaluing of Adams (less time on a rookie deal), and the devaluing of the future 1st round pick, and giving Mcdougald a 5th round current grade (he was UDFA), the deal sounds about right to value.

@Sperm Edwards

 

i think the 4th rounder the jets sent is 2022.

[Scott Dierking]

3 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

I don't think you can throw draft pick numbers on an established starter in this league like McDougal, who will start immediately and has out performed his draft status significantly. That's why this formula doesn't make sense to me. 

I gave him a 5th round grade, because, basically he seems to carry 5th round value. I don't think that we can give him anything more than 4th round value. He only has 1 year left on his contract, so his value should not be inflated too much. Remember, he was an UDFA.

Regardless, the shift in discussion of whether he is a 3rd, 4th, or 5th round talent does not move the needle much on value.

[Sperm Edwards]

39 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

I don't think you can throw draft pick numbers on an established starter in this league like McDougal, who will start immediately and has out performed his draft status significantly. That's why this formula doesn't make sense to me. 

McDougald had between nominal and zero trade value at the time this trade was made. Rosters were set and no one is injured yet. Only way Seattle could get something for him is if someone else lost their SS before (or during) the season - or their own handpicked starter was so terrible he needed to be benched - and became desperate enough to cough up a 6th or 7th rounder to save the current season.

This year he’ll be a 30 year-old coming off a disappointing season, and is a UFA after the season is over. While I’d agree it’s likely, it’s not even a sure thing he makes the Jets roster. As of right now he costs little (1/34 of his 2020 salary per week, or a hair over $100K/week) to see what he’s got. He was a throw-in on the trade, but the duo they want to start (Maye/Davis) make so little - $3MM cap charge between them - that the positional cost is still low even with McDougald. That, plus Maye hasn’t exactly been an ironman and veterans are more reliable for injury fill-in work than other backups.

Also wouldn’t be shocked to see Douglas approach McDougald with a pay cut offer if Davis looks good enough to start at FS right away. 

[Stark]

On 7/26/2020 at 6:23 AM, Scott Dierking said:

Pretty fair deal for both sides.

 

I used Ourlads draft value chart:

Used Seattle draft position for 2021 and 2022 at #25 overall.

1st round value 2021=720 points

1st round value 2022 (less 5% value)= 684 points

3rd round pick 2021= 145 points

Mcdougald worth a 5th round pick at Seattle slot= 30 points

Used Jets 4th  round draft position for 2021 at #13 = -76 points

Draft value of trade = 1503 points which equates to the 7th pick overall

 

Granted, there is a lot of subjectivity on my part here, but with the devaluing of Adams (less time on a rookie deal), and the devaluing of the future 1st round pick, and giving Mcdougald a 5th round current grade (he was UDFA), the deal sounds about right to value.

@Sperm Edwards

 

 

12 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I think it’s a damn solid deal for us as well. My whole question was weighing it against a potential trade for Dallas’ #17 pick, not whether or not Douglas was right to pull the trigger on this yesterday. That was it. Just like passing on a 4th rounder for R.Anderson, then not extending him at that time, and then not making a particularly strong push for him in March.

So even if Douglas did turn down #17 in April, because a lone 1st rounder wasn’t as good a headline as a 1st plus more, and even if that was worth more on paper, here in late July Douglas is in the spot he’s in now, not the spot he was in back in April. Looked at through that lens, the right move was clear. 

probably an obvious comment and probably said already, but the value you have established could be spot on... or with the volatility of teams from year to year and unknown potential health/injuries we could be looking at a pick considerably higher than 25-22 range. 

picks we acquired + BM is a good deal for the JETS. 

[Sperm Edwards]

7 minutes ago, Stark said:

 

probably an obvious comment and probably said already, but the value you have established could be spot on... or with the volatility of teams from year to year and unknown potential health/injuries we could be looking at a pick considerably higher than 25-22 range. 

picks we acquired + BM is a good deal for the JETS. 

yes I said that as well:

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

while it seems really unlikely where we sit today, it is possible there’s a total collapse in Seattle and one of them turns into a future top 10 pick. 

Totally agree this was a great deal for the Jets. There's no evidence of a better offer having been made (better on paper or otherwise), so I'm thrilled with this.

[Greensleeves]

13 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

McDougald had between nominal and zero trade value at the time this trade was made. Rosters were set and no one is injured yet. Only way Seattle could get something for him is if someone else lost their SS before (or during) the season - or their own handpicked starter was so terrible he needed to be benched - and became desperate enough to cough up a 6th or 7th rounder to save the current season.

This year he’ll be a 30 year-old coming off a disappointing season, and is a UFA after the season is over. While I’d agree it’s likely, it’s not even a sure thing he makes the Jets roster. As of right now he costs little (1/34 of his 2020 salary per week, or a hair over $100K/week) to see what he’s got. He was a throw-in on the trade, but the duo they want to start (Maye/Davis) make so little - $3MM cap charge between them - that the positional cost is still low even with McDougald. That, plus Maye hasn’t exactly been an ironman and veterans are more reliable for injury fill-in work than other backups.

Also wouldn’t be shocked to see Douglas approach McDougald with a pay cut offer if Davis looks good enough to start at FS right away. 

So why are Seattle fans and football guys saying he is a top 20 safety in this league - that is counting 2 on each team, so top 20 out of 64? This guy, by all accounts is a solid starter and will be starting this year and will be helping to bring Davis along so he can start in 2021.