Jets Wire: PFF on ZW

[addage]

Pro Football Focus’ quarterback rankings that were recently released were not too kind to the New York Jets’ Zach Wilson.

Of the second-year QBs heading into 2022, Wilson finished as their second-worst. The football analytics outlet only considered the Houston Texans’ Davis Mills lesser.

But PFF made up for it a bit. In an optimistic exercise, Wilson was named as the NFL’s quarterback most likely to see an improvement next season. 

According to PFF’s metrics, in terms of “pure dropback passes” which excludes play-action passes and screens, Wilson has an 84.3 percent chance of being better in 2022. Wilson’s improvement figure edged out the Cleveland Browns’ Baker Mayfield (77.9%), and a familiar face, the Carolina Panthers’ Sam Darnold (77.2%), for the top spot.

Here’s how PFF detailed Wilson’s chances at improvement next year:

Wilson is the worst returning quarterback in the NFL by EPA per pure dropback, and so he can really only improve. The model projects a 15.7% chance of him remaining at the bottom of the league, but it’s more likely the second-year BYU product will improve with rookie Garrett Wilson and a healthier Elijah Moore in the wide receiver room. The model is also pessimistic about the degree of his improvement, giving him a less than 20% chance of being a top-16 quarterback in the NFL in 2022. There is a chance it is not fully accounting for the typical size of quarterbacks’ second-year leaps.

[Spoot-Face]

1 minute ago, addage said:

Wilson’s improvement figure edged out the Cleveland Browns’ Baker Mayfield (77.9%), and a familiar face, the Carolina Panthers’ Sam Darnold (77.2%), for the top spot.

By golly, if Sam Darnold doesn't improve this year...

 

There's always the year after, apparently.

[addage]

I wasn't much bothered by PFF.  Raters have a methodology.  The numbers don't lie so their placement of Zach is probably accurate.

But looking at the rating, it's also true that Zach is a surrogate for the whole team.  There wasn't a single source of strength for him to rely on.  So what we can't know is how much of last year's disaster was Zach, and how much was the Jets entire organization.

The jury is still out on Zach and this is an important year.  But the O looks entirely different.  There are a lot of new faces to be integrated.  A lot of young players who need to develop.  And the Becton saga will have a huge impact on Zach and the O.

All that being said, there is a lot of room for optimism.  JD gets a lot of credit for improving the roster; the CS has a year under its belt and we are in year 2 of their systems.  We will actually cut players other teams want (yes, I know, a miracle).

Zach can certainly still fail, but I think the outlook is pretty positive for year 2.

[Beerfish]

Bizarre for me,

Davis Mills overall was very good and overachieved if anything.

67% comp, 16 tds and 10 ints.

Justin Fields was much worse.

Oh well they are using metrics that may or may nor be relevant in the end.

[Larz]

The best thing they can do for the first 4 games is hand it off 125 times and get Zach away from the hero ball stuff. Let him calm his mind down and take what’s there. After that gradually increase the playbook. 

[Jet Nut]

The other day a PFF list was posted listing him s third worst.

Watching games Fields was worse, I’m sick of daily lists they mean nothing and given last years roster aren’t a predictor of failure or success.  

[Green Ghost]

42 minutes ago, addage said:

 

Zach can certainly still fail, but I think the outlook is pretty positive for year 2.

This last sentence of your post is the Jets upcoming season in a nutshell. 
Almost every one of us feel things are trending up as far as the talent level on this team.

The QB is the elephant in the room however. He wasn’t good last year. We can (and certainly do debate how much of it was his fault) but there is no debating he needs to be a lot better this year.

If he isn’t, and he remains at the same level or regresses, it will negate all the optimism we’re feeling toward the rest of the team, the CS and the FO.

[Green Ghost]

3 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

The other day a PFF list was posted listing him s third worst.

Watching games Fields was worse, I’m sick of daily lists

Amen.

I think we all are, but… ?‍♂️

[jgb]

5 hours ago, addage said:

The model is also pessimistic about the degree of his improvement, giving him a less than 20% chance of being a top-16 quarterback in the NFL in 2022.

I think PFF is reading our posts, @Jetsfan80

[jgb]

Poor, sweet Sammy lol. Panthers are paying him $19M for that next year ha ha ha!

Also, Kirk Cousins is criminally underrated.

[Hal N of Provo]

PFF is subjective as a sports writer in 23.8262282727% scientifically accurate wrapping.

[jgb]

10 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

PFF is subjective as a sports writer in 23.8262282727% scientifically accurate wrapping.

23% scientifically accurate is 100% more scientifically accurate than hopes and dreams.

[jgb]

6 hours ago, addage said:

Pro Football Focus’ quarterback rankings that were recently released were not too kind to the New York Jets’ Zach Wilson.

Of the second-year QBs heading into 2022, Wilson finished as their second-worst. The football analytics outlet only considered the Houston Texans’ Davis Mills lesser.

But PFF made up for it a bit. In an optimistic exercise, Wilson was named as the NFL’s quarterback most likely to see an improvement next season. 

According to PFF’s metrics, in terms of “pure dropback passes” which excludes play-action passes and screens, Wilson has an 84.3 percent chance of being better in 2022. Wilson’s improvement figure edged out the Cleveland Browns’ Baker Mayfield (77.9%), and a familiar face, the Carolina Panthers’ Sam Darnold (77.2%), for the top spot.

Here’s how PFF detailed Wilson’s chances at improvement next year:

Wilson is the worst returning quarterback in the NFL by EPA per pure dropback, and so he can really only improve. The model projects a 15.7% chance of him remaining at the bottom of the league, but it’s more likely the second-year BYU product will improve with rookie Garrett Wilson and a healthier Elijah Moore in the wide receiver room. The model is also pessimistic about the degree of his improvement, giving him a less than 20% chance of being a top-16 quarterback in the NFL in 2022. There is a chance it is not fully accounting for the typical size of quarterbacks’ second-year leaps.

[BUM-KNEE]

Rankings shpankings, Zack will look much better solely because he has a decent Oline and actual playmakers this year. If he can settle into what the game dictates its a win.

There will be hiccups, but what QB doesnt have them?

[The Crusher]

44 minutes ago, jgb said:

Poor, sweet Sammy lol. Panthers are paying him $19M for that next year ha ha ha!

Also, Kirk Cousins is criminally underrated.

Cousins is phenomenal at everything except getting into post season and winning. 

[Jetsfan80]

57 minutes ago, jgb said:

Poor, sweet Sammy lol. Panthers are paying him $19M for that next year ha ha ha!

Also, Kirk Cousins is criminally underrated.

You just lit the @Warfish bat signal.  Or fish signal.

[JohnnyLV]

6 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Bizarre for me,

Davis Mills overall was very good and overachieved if anything.

67% comp, 16 tds and 10 ints.

Justin Fields was much worse.

Oh well they are using metrics that may or may nor be relevant in the end.

EPA stats never really pass the smell test IMO. It is an abstraction applied to an abstraction and is essentially a circular argument. It does not consider personnel groupings, play call, scheme and especially completely ignores surrounding cast. In the case of a QB all credit and blame is assigned to the QB. As an example, it weighs the talent Zach had at the end of the season exactly the same as if he had a full compliment of his playmakers. Said differently it assumes all QBs have the same level of talent around them which is dumb. It also does not adjust at all for drops or mistakes by the offense either.

But it is even worse than that. Sacks are particularly penal in the calculation so if you have a crappy OL you will get incredibly dinged in EPA because of taking unavoidable stats.

It also rewards conservative play as any positive yardage will yield some level of positive EPA especially in field goal range, so taking 3 yards on 3rd and 11 is considered much better than say a drop 15 yards down the field. 

In terms of Zach, last season is always going to look awful in this method. His surrounding cast was WELL above average in dropped passes and WELL below average in contested catch rate. 

Analytics without context are close to completely useless.  The only really valid analysis that PFF provides are the grades they give OL (and even then it has incomplete context) because essentially they are grading how effective he was at pass blocking or run blocking on each play, but even then he may have missed his assignment that sacks the QB but he successfully blocked someone else.

To my eye I would rate them this way:

1st half of season :

Jones

Mills

Lawrence

Zach

Fields INC

2nd half of season

Mills

Jones

Zach

Lawrence

Fields

 

 

[Spoot-Face]

18 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Cousins is phenomenal at everything except getting into post season and winning. 

Joe Flacco he ain't, amirite? 

[Jetsfan80]

12 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

But it is even worse than that. Sacks are particularly penal in the calculation so if you have a crappy OL you will get incredibly dinged in EPA because of taking unavoidable stats.

Sacks are a QB stat for a reason.  Taking a lot of them in most cases falls on the QB.  Some OLs truly are terrible but that certainly wasn’t the case for the 2021 Jets. 

Justin Herbert had the worst-graded OL in the NFL his rookie year yet still blasted away the rookie TD record.  He isn’t particularly mobile, either.  So it really isn’t a valid excuse for Wilson’s play.  

[The Crusher]

31 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

Joe Flacco he ain't, amirite? 

 

[Hal N of Provo]

28 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Sacks are a QB stat for a reason.  Taking a lot of them in most cases falls on the QB.  Some OLs truly are terrible but that certainly wasn’t the case for the 2021 Jets. 

Justin Herbert had the worst-graded OL in the NFL his rookie year yet still blasted away the rookie TD record.  He isn’t particularly mobile, either.  So it really isn’t a valid excuse for Wilson’s play.  

Man when I watched those every pass videos after the season the OLine started horrible and finished bad.  Guys coming untouched or unaltered right up the A gap with alarming regularity.  
 

 A probowl RG hopefully fixed it, but I was suspicious some were coming through might have been centers assignment.  
 

Also OC had way too many calls that a LB would see no protection to a side and they would walk up to the line and blitz.  Bad but not having outlets on those plays looked really bad.  So I don’t know how many sacks Zach ran out of, but it was a lot.

[section314]

7 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Bizarre for me,

Davis Mills overall was very good and overachieved if anything.

67% comp, 16 tds and 10 ints.

Justin Fields was much worse.

Oh well they are using metrics that may or may nor be relevant in the end.

Justin Fields and Lawrence were horrible. Analytics are for losers.

[UnknownJetFan]

7 hours ago, addage said:

I wasn't much bothered by PFF.  Raters have a methodology.  The numbers don't lie so their placement of Zach is probably accurate.

But looking at the rating, it's also true that Zach is a surrogate for the whole team.  There wasn't a single source of strength for him to rely on.  So what we can't know is how much of last year's disaster was Zach, and how much was the Jets entire organization.

The jury is still out on Zach and this is an important year.  But the O looks entirely different.  There are a lot of new faces to be integrated.  A lot of young players who need to develop.  And the Becton saga will have a huge impact on Zach and the O.

All that being said, there is a lot of room for optimism.  JD gets a lot of credit for improving the roster; the CS has a year under its belt and we are in year 2 of their systems.  We will actually cut players other teams want (yes, I know, a miracle).

Zach can certainly still fail, but I think the outlook is pretty positive for year 2.

Feel like Breece Hall will be a player this O and Zack can really rely on.

[Warfish]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

Also, Kirk Cousins is criminally underrated.

[Gastineau Lives]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Sacks are a QB stat for a reason.  Taking a lot of them in most cases falls on the QB.  Some OLs truly are terrible but that certainly wasn’t the case for the 2021 Jets. 

Justin Herbert had the worst-graded OL in the NFL his rookie year yet still blasted away the rookie TD record.  He isn’t particularly mobile, either.  So it really isn’t a valid excuse for Wilson’s play.  

Oh, look everyone, it's Valerie Solanas. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Oh, look everyone, it's Valerie Solanas. 

Warhol needed to go.

[Beerfish]

3 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Cousins is phenomenal at everything except getting into post season and winning. 

So was the dude that just won the superbowl.

[Smashmouth]

10 hours ago, Spoot-Face said:

By golly, if Sam Darnold doesn't improve this year...

 

There's always the year after, apparently.

Its not hard to improve when you suck off the charts

[Smashmouth]

4 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Cousins is phenomenal at everything except getting into post season and winning. 

Cousins takes way too much blame for a team that has flaws and a coach whom the NFL has seemed to pass by. I have seen him numerous times drive his team to a lead only to see his team squander it . Getting rid of players like Diggs never helps matters and the defense seems to be going in the wrong direction as well but its always Cousins who easily puts up top 10 stats every single year. There are times when you blame the QB and there are times when you just don't or shouldn't

[Smashmouth]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Sacks are a QB stat for a reason.  Taking a lot of them in most cases falls on the QB.  Some OLs truly are terrible but that certainly wasn’t the case for the 2021 Jets. 

Justin Herbert had the worst-graded OL in the NFL his rookie year yet still blasted away the rookie TD record.  He isn’t particularly mobile, either.  So it really isn’t a valid excuse for Wilson’s play.  

Exactly ! even terrible OL's can be made to look good if the QB gets the ball out quick which is exactly what our offense is designed to do. An undecided rookie QB can easily make it look like the fault is on the OL. When it comes to guys coming in untouched its usually up to the QB and at least one of the WR's to hot read that sh*t and adapt to get the ball out quick. If there is no read on that play or if just the QB or Just the WR reads the play and adjusts it usually leads to trouble since they come in hot and there's really nothing the OC can do at that stage.

[jgb]

8 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

You just lit the @Warfish bat signal.  Or fish signal.

 

6 hours ago, Warfish said:

Even without Henry for half the season, Tannehill’s game is also —

[jgb]

15 hours ago, Spoot-Face said:

By golly, if Sam Darnold doesn't improve this year...

 

There's always the year after, apparently.

In the 2030s someone somewhere will be saying “He’s still only 33 years old, Rich Gannon was older. Wait for it!”

5 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

Its not hard to improve when you suck off the charts

Sam is the poster child for not betting on “nowhere to go but up.”

[Jimmy 2 Times]

8 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Warhol needed to go.

Did you Google that?

 

 

 

 

 

Because I did.

[The Crusher]

8 hours ago, Beerfish said:

So was the dude that just won the superbowl.

Good point . If only Cousins could get off the shitty franchise that drafted him and go to a team that built a contender. 

[The Crusher]

7 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

Cousins takes way too much blame for a team that has flaws and a coach whom the NFL has seemed to pass by. I have seen him numerous times drive his team to a lead only to see his team squander it . Getting rid of players like Diggs never helps matters and the defense seems to be going in the wrong direction as well but its always Cousins who easily puts up top 10 stats every single year. There are times when you blame the QB and there are times when you just don't or shouldn't

Yes, more weapons better coaches please. Why hasn’t anyone else thought of that yet? He’s a great QB, just not a winner. Nobodies blaming him it’s just fact till it isn’t.