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### The Official Draft Day One Discussion Thread ###


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5 hours ago, BigRy56 said:

Not finding much killing the pick. The general consensus seems to be that McDonald is a good player, just drafted in the middle of the first instead of the back half of the first. Some of the more hardcore draft guys seem to have him ranked higher than your average mocks did. It’s a weird draft, so not surprising that opinions would vary.

What does it matter if the guy gets taken at 30 or 15? If the guy can play and he’s sacking the QB next year, it’s all good with me. The Jets should be putting up points next year, so the pass rush will have a chance to take over

Agreed. If they only had 15 players with 1st round grade, then you take him when you can.

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36 minutes ago, Ghost said:

JD was real disappointing yesterday. The clear move at that point was to trade back. It’s mind boggling how we actually got offers and that fat **** declined. 

There were no offers. 

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6 hours ago, football guy said:

1) JSN is an overrated prospect who produced heavily in a scheme that perfectly utilized him. Idk why everyone is going so crazy over him… Very solid WR a la Amon-Ra St. Brown. As you say, history will tell…

2) I think you’re missing the point. Part of being adaptable is using players in different spots to create mid-matches. Drafting JSN to be your primary slot basically elimates your ability to use the slot to create mismatches for all the other receivers. Lazard was signed to be the “big slot” who splits time at the Z with the other receivers (Hardman, Davis) and vice a versa. Garrett Wilson is going to be utilized in the slot often. TEs gonna get used in the slot. You draft JSN and you basically eliminate the mismatch aspect of things, especially if he’s going to be a starter. Whose to say Rodgers even utilizes him? It would’ve been a wasted pick tbh 

3) Again, you’re whing about 3rd and 4th and 5th receivers. If GW were to get injured (why were even talking about this idk), of course it would impact the offense, but let’s calm down… I just watched the Chiefs trade away Tyreek Hill and win the Super Bowl. Corey Davis as a 3/4 option and Denzel Mims as a 5/6 option is better than 90% of teams in the league 

4) Eh I think getting Rodgers before the draft was significant. I don’t agree with the pick swap and I’m as annoyed as anyone that they didn’t land the OL, but you’re taking it a bit far. The world isn’t burning 

Thank you for your balanced comments.  A couple of questions though.  Do you think JD got beaten pretty badly by GB in the AR trade?  And did that unnecessarily cost us Broderick Jones?   And to check my assumption, was an OT the priority going into the draft?  

 

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I think the McDonald selection is a subtle admission that even though they had Jermaine Johnson as a top ten player last year, they don’t think he can be the guy as a pass rusher on the edge. Too stiff, and more of a secondary piece who can get clean up sacks and set the edge.

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1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

 

So these two posts highlight something I wasn't aware of because of the lack of finishing:

The Jets were insignificantly different from the top QB-pressure generating teams last year. Nominally they were 3rd-best, but #1 was 25.6%, #2 were 25.5% and Jets were at 25.4%. 

So they could generate pressure, even with the NFL's lowest blitz % at just under 15%.

What they lacked is closing. This isn't like years ago when generating pressure meant forcing bad throws/decisions; this new crop of QBs just moves. So on paper they're pressured, but the top QBs we face this year - Allen x2 again, Mahomes, Hurts - are special because they don't just get sacked because one guy generates "pressure" and the rest of the plan is Q generating too much pressure up the middle for them to simply step up when the outside pass rush makes wide turns around the tackles.

This is designed to eliminate that 2nd or 3rd chance because the best mobile passers seem to buy extra time so effortlessly from close-but-no-cigar pressure.

That's the idea, anyway. Will it work out? Who knows.

I wasn't locked in on an OT as my round 1 wish in the first place, so I'm not crushed over that. I had them locked in at center in round 2, and (despite the popularity) was never behind them starting two rookies on the OL in an all-in year. Nor do I like the idea of OL depth in round 1 either because they don't rotate in while serving as depth.

The concern is that (a) he seems to have consistently been outside the top 20 (if not 25), so it's inefficient use of staying in that slot instead of picking up a free extra pick and getting the same player, if that could've happened. Also (b) using so many resources to one position is inefficient, even when it's a premium position. It can still work out if you hit on later picks for those other positions sacrificed upon this altar, but that's kind of the whole trick: it's really, really hard to do that. 

Interesting points.  We did lack turnovers last year and it felt like we didn't blitz much (though we got pressure). Maybe the thinking is that we're one more pass rusher away from really wreaking havoc on opposing offenses.  After all, there are only so many players that you can block.  Maybe the Jets felt like if we acquired one more pressure guy that it would be the tipping point to making us a great defense.

At least it gives me a theory to buy into!  :)

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6 hours ago, Mogglez said:

More replies in bold, lol.

You talk about the possibility of moving down. I’ve mentioned this before, but I genuinely believe one of Douglas’ biggest weaknesses when it comes to drafting - if not his biggest - is he has too much conviction in their evaluations. Not moving down when they could, moving up. Best drafting teams have a lot of picks because it’s hard to draft and you want more bites at the apple. Douglas seems to lack the humility to understand that, and while last year was great the first two weren’t.

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4 minutes ago, derp said:

I think the McDonald selection is a subtle admission that even though they had Jermaine Johnson as a top ten player last year, they don’t think he can be the guy as a pass rusher on the edge. Too stiff, and more of a secondary piece who can get clean up sacks and set the edge.

I don't think so. 

Look, they had a draft board and stuck to it, it's as simple as that. They tried trading down, the value of the offers stunk, so they picked the next guy on the board who happens to play a premium position. We're not talking about a safety here. 

My preference was jsn but honestly my happiness went out the window when we lost out on jones. Drafting jsn doesn't solve the issue of having 3 question marks at tackle. Hell, even if we drafted jones out wouldn't solve it because he's a project tackle, but I'd feel way better about the depth. 

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48 minutes ago, Ghost said:

JD was real disappointing yesterday. The clear move at that point was to trade back. It’s mind boggling how we actually got offers and that fat **** declined. 

And what were these "offers" exactly? it's easy for a GM to say "we had offers but we stuck to our board" ... it pumps up the pick, makes everyone feel good about the commitment to the player etc.

Worth noting - after our pick, the next trade up that happened was at #24 - and that was only a one-place swap. If any team was serious about moving up, why didn't it happen straight after our pick? 

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2 minutes ago, jamesr said:

And what were these "offers" exactly? it's easy for a GM to say "we had offers but we stuck to our board" ... it pumps up the pick, makes everyone feel good about the commitment to the player etc.

Worth noting - after our pick, the next trade up that happened was at #24 - and that was only a one-place swap. If any team was serious about moving up, why didn't it happen straight after our pick? 

Consistent with the first round grades at or around 15.  

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2 minutes ago, derp said:

You talk about the possibility of moving down. I’ve mentioned this before, but I genuinely believe one of Douglas’ biggest weaknesses when it comes to drafting - if not his biggest - is he has too much conviction in their evaluations. Not moving down when they could, moving up. Best drafting teams have a lot of picks because it’s hard to draft and you want more bites at the apple. Douglas seems to lack the humility to understand that, and while last year was great the first two weren’t.

His "we let the draft come to us" comment in his presser was a bit preposterous.

The last two drafts they've been champs at NOT letting the draft come to them. They didn't just trade up for JJII, but iirc he later admitted he'd unsuccessfully been trying to trade up for that player since he dropped to pick #15. That's not letting the draft come to you. Neither is trading up for a RB at the top of round 2. Neither is trading two 3rd rounders to move up into the top 15 overall for a guard in a deep OL-rich draft. 

This may very end up being a great pick with a lot of fans eating their words, or sealing the deal in an important game that makes you forget about the inefficiency of throwing too many resources at one position. But even with his very recent 2022 draft success, the idea that Joe Douglas was just floating - that it's his thing to just let the draft come to him (especially outside the top 10 overall picks) - is laughable if not outright gaslighting. 

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6 hours ago, Mogglez said:

Von Miller, if I remember correctly, bulked up to 250 though.

Fair enough on LT, but we’re talking about, arguably, the greatest player in the history of football there, and he also played 3-4 OLB, not 4-3 DE.

Agree on the pick being a total waste of resources though; especially when he wasn’t BPA and the position wasn’t a dire need.

He clearly was their BPA, whether you like it or not. 

BTW, I have no problem with you hating the pick because there was someone else your preferred, I'm with ya there. But saying the kid stinks before he plays a down in the nfl is ridiculous. None of us have a clue, and I can't stand when people crush these kids in their rookie year. 

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1 minute ago, Sammybighead said:

I don't think so. 

Look, they had a draft board and stuck to it, it's as simple as that. They tried trading down, the value of the offers stunk, so they picked the next guy on the board who happens to play a premium position. We're not talking about a safety here. 

My preference was jsn but honestly my happiness went out the window when we lost out on jones. Drafting jsn doesn't solve the issue of having 3 question marks at tackle. Hell, even if we drafted jones out wouldn't solve it because he's a project tackle, but I'd feel way better about the depth. 

What we each thought of Johnson before they made the pick probably factors in. It’s less the position and more they type of edge rusher they took. I wouldn’t have said the same if they took Myles Murphy for example - would’ve thought they don’t value bend.

They need tackle depth. If they were locked in on tackle than signaling that to the entire league was stupid. If they didn’t like the top four in this tackle class that much beyond Johnson who was never getting to them, which I suspect but can never prove, then it was fine to get somebody they liked to drop to them.

I hope they can get a tackle later today to provide depth and a potential starter next year. Would like to see Bergeron. He’s got some LDT ties too. Worst case they kick him in and he replaces Tomlinson. Jake Witt in the fifth would be an interesting swing. Curious what this means for Becton’s option. Maybe they bring back Fant. We’ll see.

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Just now, Sperm Edwards said:

His "we let the draft come to us" comment in his presser was a bit preposterous.

The last two drafts they've been champs at NOT letting the draft come to them. They didn't just trade up for JJII, but iirc he later admitted he'd unsuccessfully been trying to trade up for that player since he dropped to pick #15. That's not letting the draft come to you. Neither is trading up for a RB at the top of round 2. Neither is trading two 3rd rounders to move up into the top 15 overall for a guard in a deep OL-rich draft. 

This may very end up being a great pick with a lot of fans eating their words, or sealing the deal in an important game that makes you forget about the inefficiency of throwing too many resources at one position. But even with his very recent 2022 draft success, the idea that Joe Douglas was just floating - that it's his thing to just let the draft come to him (especially outside the top 10 overall picks) - is laughable if not outright gaslighting. 

They had no choice but to stay at 15.  They’ve had a lot of draft picks the past few years and had the luxury of being able to move around.  

It would be nice if becton and mims showed up this year. 

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2 minutes ago, derp said:

What we each thought of Johnson before they made the pick probably factors in. It’s less the position and more they type of edge rusher they took. I wouldn’t have said the same if they took Myles Murphy for example - would’ve thought they don’t value bend.

They need tackle depth. If they were locked in on tackle than signaling that to the entire league was stupid. If they didn’t like the top four in this tackle class that much beyond Johnson who was never getting to them, which I suspect but can never prove, then it was fine to get somebody they liked to drop to them.

I hope they can get a tackle later today to provide depth and a potential starter next year. Would like to see Bergeron. He’s got some LDT ties too. Worst case they kick him in and he replaces Tomlinson. Jake Witt in the fifth would be an interesting swing. Curious what this means for Becton’s option. Maybe they bring back Fant. We’ll see.

They have a 2 and 2 4th to address the OL.  I believe they will.  They were always going to add a front 7 player, so now they turn to the OL. 

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1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

His "we let the draft come to us" comment in his presser was a bit preposterous.

The last two drafts they've been champs at NOT letting the draft come to them. They didn't just trade up for JJII, but iirc he later admitted he'd unsuccessfully been trying to trade up for that player since he dropped to pick #15. That's not letting the draft come to you. Neither is trading up for a RB at the top of round 2. Neither is trading two 3rd rounders to move up into the top 15 overall for a guard in a deep OL-rich draft. 

This may very end up being a great pick with a lot of fans eating their words, or sealing the deal in an important game that makes you forget about the inefficiency of throwing too many resources at one position. But even with his very recent 2022 draft success, the idea that Joe Douglas was just floating - that it's his thing to just let the draft come to him (especially outside the top 10 overall picks) - is laughable if not outright gaslighting. 

Even the idea that they build through the draft. Don’t seem to value draft picks. Turn down trade downs when they’re there (2021). Big swings on risky prospects with tools.

I believe in being process oriented over results oriented - though obviously you can’t ignore results. Was excited for Douglas to bring a better process here - kind of like Baltimore. Philly too. Don’t like his process. Hopefully he gets results despite that. He’s 1/3 on drafts so far.

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20 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

 

So these two posts highlight something I wasn't aware of because of the lack of finishing:

The Jets were insignificantly different from the top QB-pressure generating teams last year. Nominally they were 3rd-best, but #1 was 25.6%, #2 were 25.5% and Jets were at 25.4%. 

So they could generate pressure, even with the NFL's lowest blitz % at just under 15%.

What they lacked is closing. This isn't like years ago when generating pressure meant forcing bad throws/decisions; this new crop of QBs just moves. So on paper they're pressured, but the top QBs we face this year - Allen x2 again, Mahomes, Hurts - are special because they don't just get sacked because one guy generates "pressure" and the rest of the plan is Q generating too much pressure up the middle for them to simply step up when the outside pass rush makes wide turns around the tackles.

This is designed to eliminate that 2nd or 3rd chance because the best mobile passers seem to buy extra time so effortlessly from close-but-no-cigar pressure.

That's the idea, anyway. Will it work out? Who knows.

I wasn't locked in on an OT as my round 1 wish in the first place, so I'm not crushed over that. I had them locked in at center in round 2, and (despite the popularity) was never behind them starting two rookies on the OL in an all-in year. Nor do I like the idea of OL depth in round 1 either because they don't rotate in while serving as depth.

The concern is that (a) he seems to have consistently been outside the top 20 (if not 25), so it's inefficient use of staying in that slot instead of picking up a free extra pick and getting the same player, if that could've happened. Also (b) using so many resources to one position is inefficient, even when it's a premium position. It can still work out if you hit on later picks for those other positions sacrificed upon this altar, but that's kind of the whole trick: it's really, really hard to do that. 

"Pressure" as a stat is borderline meaningless.  It does not carry with it any actual success for the outcome of the play itself.

A QB can be "pressured" and complete a 75 yard TD pass.

A QB can be "pressured" and run for an 80 yard TD.

I would just ask, is this guys magic "bend" enough to overcome being undersized, too slow, having to change positions, learn how to play the run and only be a rotational player on Saleh's rotational system?  I fear we've just drafted another Darren Lee of sorts.

And I'm really disappointed we could have finally addressed WR in a long term way, pairing Wilson with JSN as our #1 and #2, and just didn't, for a guy who was a reach at that pick.  With the Jets it's always Defense first, always.  Defensive Head Coaches, Defense for top #1 picks, and the Offense always seem to languish.  Of course, I also lack the faith so many do in Lazard and Hardaman and Davis (?) being great WR's just because Rodgers is here.  I do very much hope I'm wrong on this pick, but feels like a miss to me.

 

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2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

They have a 2 and 2 4th to address the OL.  I believe they will.  They were always going to add a front 7 player, so now they turn to the OL. 

I’m fine with them waiting on a tackle if that was the plan. Conceptually it was my preference. Not fine with them costing themselves a tackle by not hiding their intentions if they wanted one.

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This first round class just seems very shallow this year. The leaps for QBs that just look ho-hum. The minimal collateral needed to trade up. It just seems like NFL teams as a whole viewed this class as mediocre. Might be a wrong on my part. Maybe Miami had it right, it it was worth tampering and losing a first round pick this year. 

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Just now, derp said:

I’m fine with them waiting on a tackle if that was the plan. Conceptually it was my preference. Not fine with them costing themselves a tackle by not hiding their intentions if they wanted one.

I actually thought they’re too overinvested in 1st round picks on the OL.  They need to find reliable OL in later rounds, like today

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7 hours ago, Kelly to Allen no huddle said:

The bills board kicked me off because I got drunk and went on a anti lockdown anti vax tirade. Plus I always respected the jets and their fans. 

Marvin Jones was a great lb 

Wow so glad we were able to pick you up. You're like the Connor McDermott of posters. 

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9 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

His "we let the draft come to us" comment in his presser was a bit preposterous.

The last two drafts they've been champs at NOT letting the draft come to them. They didn't just trade up for JJII, but iirc he later admitted he'd unsuccessfully been trying to trade up for that player since he dropped to pick #15. That's not letting the draft come to you. Neither is trading up for a RB at the top of round 2. Neither is trading two 3rd rounders to move up into the top 15 overall for a guard in a deep OL-rich draft. 

This may very end up being a great pick with a lot of fans eating their words, or sealing the deal in an important game that makes you forget about the inefficiency of throwing too many resources at one position. But even with his very recent 2022 draft success, the idea that Joe Douglas was just floating - that it's his thing to just let the draft come to him (especially outside the top 10 overall picks) - is laughable if not outright gaslighting. 

He’s completely full of sh*t and partially digested pretzels. 

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2 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

This first round class just seems very shallow this year. The leaps for QBs that just look ho-hum. The minimal collateral needed to trade up. It just seems like NFL teams as a whole viewed this class as mediocre. Might be a ring wrong on my part. Maybe Miami had it right, it it was worth tampering and losing a first round pick this year. 

I agree and i think that’s why the OL went early.  The wrs sucked, the TEs clearly were overvalued, nobody wanted Levis.  You take who you like.  The jets got a legit situational edge, reminds me of Abraham.  He will be invisible some games and impact some games.  

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2 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

This first round class just seems very shallow this year. The leaps for QBs that just look ho-hum. The minimal collateral needed to trade up. It just seems like NFL teams as a whole viewed this class as mediocre. Might be a ring wrong on my part. Maybe Miami had it right, it it was worth tampering and losing a first round pick this year. 

This was always going to be the case with this draft class.  That’s why the 2 RBs went so high as well.   There just wasn’t that much elite legit top 15 type guys in this draft.   

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Just now, sec101row23 said:

This was always going to be the case with this draft class.  That’s why the 2 RBs went so high as well.   There just wasn’t that much elite legit top 15 type guys in this draft.   

Main reason I’m ok with the pick.  You need edge rushers.  They change games.  I expect OL and Te to be addressed the rest of the draft.  

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1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

I agree and i think that’s why the OL went early.  The wrs sucked, the TEs clearly were overvalued, nobody wanted Levis.  You take who you like.  The jets got a legit situational edge, reminds me of Abraham.  He will be invisible some games and impact some games.  

Douglas comes from the Eagles organization. They value the trenches in getting O-lineman that can maul, and creating a push on the opposing backfield on defense. He believes in moving and pressuring that line of scrimmage. 

I am somewhat confident that he probably wanted one of the OT’s there. But that did not work out so he went with what we would have to presume was his next fit per category. 

For me, Douglas gets the benefit of the doubt. I did not see one snap this kid played last year, and other than that, everyone is whistling in the dark based upon pundits putting word to paper in to satisfy space. 

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1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

Main reason I’m ok with the pick.  You need edge rushers.  They change games.  I expect OL and Te to be addressed the rest of the draft.  

People are acting like JD reached for the 3rd best safety at 15.   Speed off the edge wasn’t only a huge need, it’s a premium position as well.  OL can still be addressed via the draft and through camp cuts and FA.   

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8 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I actually thought they’re too overinvested in 1st round picks on the OL.  They need to find reliable OL in later rounds, like today

Yup, again - conceptually my preference was them waiting on tackle and taking one later (like today).

But ultimately, they have their plans. And if their plan was to acquire a tackle in the first round this year and they were unable to execute that plan because they made that obvious to the entire NFL, the self-inflicted inability to execute that plan is a problem.

I don’t want the front office to be unable to execute their plans, even if they wouldn’t be my plans.

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38 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

 

So these two posts highlight something I wasn't aware of because of the lack of finishing:

The Jets were insignificantly different from the top QB-pressure generating teams last year. Nominally they were 3rd-best, but #1 was 25.6%, #2 were 25.5% and Jets were at 25.4%. 

So they could generate pressure, even with the NFL's lowest blitz % at just under 15%.

What they lacked is closing. This isn't like years ago when generating pressure meant forcing bad throws/decisions; this new crop of QBs just moves. So on paper they're pressured, but the top QBs we face this year - Allen x2 again, Mahomes, Hurts - are special because they don't just get sacked because one guy generates "pressure" and the rest of the plan is Q generating too much pressure up the middle for them to simply step up when the outside pass rush makes wide turns around the tackles.

This is designed to eliminate that 2nd or 3rd chance because the best mobile passers seem to buy extra time so effortlessly from close-but-no-cigar pressure.

That's the idea, anyway. Will it work out? Who knows.

I wasn't locked in on an OT as my round 1 wish in the first place, so I'm not crushed over that. I had them locked in at center in round 2, and (despite the popularity) was never behind them starting two rookies on the OL in an all-in year. Nor do I like the idea of OL depth in round 1 either because they don't rotate in while serving as depth.

The concern is that (a) he seems to have consistently been outside the top 20 (if not 25), so it's inefficient use of staying in that slot instead of picking up a free extra pick and getting the same player, if that could've happened. Also (b) using so many resources to one position is inefficient, even when it's a premium position. It can still work out if you hit on later picks for those other positions sacrificed upon this altar, but that's kind of the whole trick: it's really, really hard to do that. 

Really good thoughts 

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34 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

They had no choice but to stay at 15.  They’ve had a lot of draft picks the past few years and had the luxury of being able to move around.  

It would be nice if becton and mims showed up this year. 

Well, I thought he said outright he had offers to move down out of the 15 slot, so that "no choice" is inaccurate. 

I'm not saying I had a problem with every past trade-up at all. It's a fan-only fantasy that they draft 5-6 immediate starters every year. Coaches rarely want to start a handful of rookies because so few emerge elite without regular rookie ****-ups as early as Sauce or GWilson, let alone in the same starting lineup, and less-so still when the first pick before those trade-downs is a rookie QB they're throwing out onto the field week 1 ready or not. And not trading down from #2 of course would be taken in hindsight even from those who were infatuated/lobbying for Zach to be the pick, but I get making a QB pick when you're already so loaded with so many extra high picks as it was. 

So at least to a degree if they didn't previously trade up at all, or move at least one of those "extra" picks for a higher-round one the following season, imo they'd have been in-advance relegating too many day 2 picks to the bench as depth without as serious a starting spot tryout (like they'd get when a team has a normal # of picks) just because of the sheer numbers of rookies drafted from the same 1-2 classes. Or if they do pan out it'll be with one year left on that cheap rookie deal that all GMs love because it's like getting an extra probowl starter (or the money to get another one) for free, or just because someone else drafted higher (or paid-for heavily in FA) was a bust.

Mims I've got little hope for at all. He's fast and has the size we all want, plus it's not like he can't catch with his hands; but after 2-3 seasons he still seems so unaware on the field.

Becton I've still got some hope, at least for the short term, but not for the long term. I'm going to need some been-there-done-that before I'm a believer. That puts a major extra risk on a 5th year option, let alone any expensive lengthy deal thereafter. So while his ability to stay on the field hardly needs mentioning, unlike Mims at least he's an obvious NFL-caliber talent rather than one who only looks like one on paper but eats **** against NFL opposition.

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20 minutes ago, Ghost said:

How do you know? There was a report that Jets got offers and how JD ultimately decided on McDonald. 

Of course they’re going to say “the best such and such was staring us in in the face we had to take him”. They had to say that to save face. Who was moving up to 15, for what player? They knew they could get McD further down the board. There were no other swaps till 24. 

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