Jets Perfect FA WR Combo Signings

[32EBoozer]

With what is available, I’m ok with going with smart investing.

https://jetsxfactor.com/2024/03/09/ny-jets-perfect-free-agent-wr-combo/

In my opinion, I think the Jets’ best solution at wide receiver would be to sign two veteran players who can combine to replicate the impact of a star receiver for a lower cost. The ideal way to do this would be to add two players with differing skill sets that complement one another.

I foresee the Jets seeking to add one short-range/slot receiver and one deep-range/vertical receiver. Together, these two players can fill most of the holes that plagued the receiver room in 2023. If they play well enough, they could combine for the same production that New York would have hoped to get out of a star, saving cap space and/or draft picks all the while.

It’s possible the Jets could sign one receiver and wait until the draft to add more, but after Aaron Rodgers notoriously struggled to build chemistry with young receivers during his final season in Green Bay, I think Rodgers is going to push the Jets to fill out the room with as many veterans as possible. This is why I see the 2-WR free agency plan as a very realistic possibility.

Without further ado, here are four free agent wide receivers who I believe would be strong fits for what the Jets are looking for at the position. We’ll sort them into two groups: short/slot receivers and vertical receivers. The Jets should aim to add one player from each group.

Short/slot

Tyler Boyd

Rivka Boord already did an extensive breakdown on Boyd that you can check out here. The bottom line is that he is an experienced, steady slot receiver who has been providing the Bengals with reliable short-game production for his whole eight-year career.

Boyd is not your typical slot receiver at 6-foot-2 and 203 pounds. He uses his big frame to box out defenders for tough catches over the middle. Boyd has a career contested catch rate of 50.5%. The league average for wide receivers is usually around 42-45%.

Boyd’s production dip in 2023 is concerning, but the Bengals’ entire offense struggled due to Joe Burrow’s injuries and a poor offensive line. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins also had down years, which makes Boyd’s decline less concerning. Boyd remains an intriguing fit for the Jets’ slot role.

Kendrick Bourne

I broke down Bourne in-depth here. Like Boyd, Bourne is another player who has provided reliability in the short game throughout his career.

Bourne isn’t a pure slot receiver like Boyd is. Boyd has played 81% of his career routes out of the slot while Bourne’s rate is just 36%. Bourne offers great outside/inside versatility. Still, despite his tendency to align outside quite often, Bourne does most of his work in the short range. His career average depth of target is only 9.8 yards, not far off from Boyd’s 8.8.

Bourne offers average hands (6.4% career drop rate), slightly above-average contested catching (47.6% career contested catch rate), and above-average YAC (5.1 career YAC per reception). He also graded as an above-average separator in 2023 according to this PFF chart. He is a solid player in many aspects.

Yes, Bourne may be an extremely un-flashy player at (soon to be) 29 years old with a 4.68 forty time, but he is a jack of all trades even if he is a master of none. Bourne can step right in and do his job better than at least half of the league’s receivers in just about all aspects of the short-to-intermediate game. That would be a huge upgrade for a Jets team that dealt with league-worst WR production outside of Garrett Wilson.

Bourne’s age, lack of flashy traits, low ceiling, and recovery from an ACL injury (which he will return from this summer) will likely lower his value to a number that is appealing for what he brings to the table. PFF is projecting him at $7 million per year while Spotrac has him at $4.8 million. If he falls somewhere between those two numbers, Bourne is an enticing short-game option for the Jets thanks to his ability to perform at a reliable level in many aspects of the position.

Vertical

Odell Beckham Jr.

Odell Beckham Jr.’s market got out of hand in 2023. The Ravens overpaid him at $15 million to pry him away from the Jets at the last minute, and they did not get their money’s worth. Beckham finished with 35 receptions for 565 yards and three touchdowns in 14 games.

While he did not live up to his contract, it’s not as if Beckham showed himself to be a washed-up player who no longer has value. At the right price, I think he can still be a useful player for any NFL team, including the Jets.

Beckham’s lack of volume was the main reason his 2023 stat line ended up being disappointing, as he only managed to catch 2.5 passes per game, a career-low. However, Beckham was an efficient big-play producer when called upon. He averaged a career-high 16.1 yards per reception and generated either a first down or a touchdown on 42.2% of his targets, which is better than his career average of 39.3%.

Most of Beckham’s production with the Ravens came through the air. Beckham averaged 11.7 air yards per reception, which ranked 11th out of the 82 wide receivers with at least 30 receptions. He was one spot ahead of D.K. Metcalf (11.3) and one spot behind Mike Evans (11.8).

The OBJ of old is long gone, but this version of the former 12th overall pick can still provide value as a low-volume, high-efficiency downfield threat. This would make him a perfect fit alongside someone like Boyd or Bourne with the Jets.

After a disappointing year in Baltimore, Beckham’s price should drop to a level that is more realistic. PFF projects he will sign for $7 million on a one-year deal. I see him landing in that ballpark.

If Beckham lands around the $7 million mark, the Jets should absolutely look to see if he’s still as interested in coming to New York as he was last year.

Josh Reynolds

Reynolds, who recently turned 29, has established himself as one of the league’s most efficient complementary receivers since he joined the Lions in 2021.

Since joining Detroit, Reynolds has caught 97-of-159 targets for 1,393 yards and 10 touchdowns. That’s over 38 games, but from a per-target standpoint, it looks like the stat line of a star receiver. While Reynolds isn’t good enough of a separator to demand targets all game long on a weekly basis, he comes through when he gets his opportunities.

Like Beckham, Reynolds did a lot of his damage through the air. Among 82 qualified WRs in 2023, Reynolds ranked 15th with 10.9 air yards per reception, four spots behind Beckham. Reynolds was especially dominant in the intermediate range (10-19 yards downfield), catching 21-of-32 intermediate targets for 380 yards and four touchdowns.

Reynolds is not a burner, but he uses his 6-foot-3 frame to make tough catches down the field at a tremendous rate. This is something Reynolds wasn’t great at earlier in his career with the Rams, but he’s figured out how to maximize his size over the past two seasons, and it’s the main reason he became such a key part of Detroit’s offense. Since 2022, Reynolds has snagged an incredible 14-of-22 contested catches (63.6%). His career rate prior to 2022 was 36.5%.

Reynolds has always offered steady hands, owning a career drop rate of 5.2%.

PFF is projecting Reynolds to earn $5.3 million per year while Spotrac has him at $7 million.

If the Jets can come away with any combination of Bourne/Boyd plus Beckham/Reynolds for a combined cost of around $15 million per year or less, I think it would be a phenomenal outcome. It would be a wise usage of cap space that leaves ample room for improving the offensive line, and the Jets would be three-deep at wide receiver with veterans whom Rodgers can trust.

Most importantly, with these specific players, the Jets would be adding complementary skill sets that make the offense well-rounded. A vertical threat like Beckham or Reynolds can force defenses to back off and yield space underneath, creating more room for a short threat like Bourne or Boyd to operate. The compatibility would allow for excellent per-target efficiency out of both players – Rodgers can pick and choose who to target based on what the defense gives him.

And if all goes well, having not one but two successful complementary receivers would prevent defenses from double-covering Garrett Wilson, allowing him to carve up one-on-one matchups all game long.

[Rich Thornburgh]

Beckham is absolutely done.  Marquise Brown is a buy low WR who would be really good here

[Rolloffjet]

Dj chark please with a trade for sutton. Cheaper wr with tons of upside.

[32EBoozer]

45 minutes ago, Rolloffjet said:

Dj chark please with a trade for sutton. Cheaper wr with tons of upside.

6’3” who ran a 4.34 and is only 27. 
I’d be down with that!

I think his market will be hot though 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, Rolloffjet said:

Dj chark please with a trade for sutton. Cheaper wr with tons of upside.

Courtland Sutton costs $14MM (and probably a mid-round draft pick). There's nothing cheap about that. 

1 hour ago, 32EBoozer said:

6’3” who ran a 4.34 and is only 27. 
I’d be down with that!

I think his market will be hot though 

Chark hasn't shown a whole lot of upside since his 2021 ankle fracture, and hasn't flirted with 1000 yards since 2019, two seasons before that injury. He's dropped 9 of 118 passes thrown his way the last 2 seasons (and fumbled twice last year, too). If the Jets sign him it'll be his 4th different team in 4 years. Has to be a reason 3 teams didn't want to go back for seconds with him. 

[BornJetsFan1983]

2 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

With what is available, I’m ok with going with smart investing.

https://jetsxfactor.com/2024/03/09/ny-jets-perfect-free-agent-wr-combo/

In my opinion, I think the Jets’ best solution at wide receiver would be to sign two veteran players who can combine to replicate the impact of a star receiver for a lower cost. The ideal way to do this would be to add two players with differing skill sets that complement one another.

I foresee the Jets seeking to add one short-range/slot receiver and one deep-range/vertical receiver. Together, these two players can fill most of the holes that plagued the receiver room in 2023. If they play well enough, they could combine for the same production that New York would have hoped to get out of a star, saving cap space and/or draft picks all the while.

It’s possible the Jets could sign one receiver and wait until the draft to add more, but after Aaron Rodgers notoriously struggled to build chemistry with young receivers during his final season in Green Bay, I think Rodgers is going to push the Jets to fill out the room with as many veterans as possible. This is why I see the 2-WR free agency plan as a very realistic possibility.

Without further ado, here are four free agent wide receivers who I believe would be strong fits for what the Jets are looking for at the position. We’ll sort them into two groups: short/slot receivers and vertical receivers. The Jets should aim to add one player from each group.

Short/slot

Tyler Boyd

Rivka Boord already did an extensive breakdown on Boyd that you can check out here. The bottom line is that he is an experienced, steady slot receiver who has been providing the Bengals with reliable short-game production for his whole eight-year career.

Boyd is not your typical slot receiver at 6-foot-2 and 203 pounds. He uses his big frame to box out defenders for tough catches over the middle. Boyd has a career contested catch rate of 50.5%. The league average for wide receivers is usually around 42-45%.

Boyd’s production dip in 2023 is concerning, but the Bengals’ entire offense struggled due to Joe Burrow’s injuries and a poor offensive line. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins also had down years, which makes Boyd’s decline less concerning. Boyd remains an intriguing fit for the Jets’ slot role.

Kendrick Bourne

I broke down Bourne in-depth here. Like Boyd, Bourne is another player who has provided reliability in the short game throughout his career.

Bourne isn’t a pure slot receiver like Boyd is. Boyd has played 81% of his career routes out of the slot while Bourne’s rate is just 36%. Bourne offers great outside/inside versatility. Still, despite his tendency to align outside quite often, Bourne does most of his work in the short range. His career average depth of target is only 9.8 yards, not far off from Boyd’s 8.8.

Bourne offers average hands (6.4% career drop rate), slightly above-average contested catching (47.6% career contested catch rate), and above-average YAC (5.1 career YAC per reception). He also graded as an above-average separator in 2023 according to this PFF chart. He is a solid player in many aspects.

Yes, Bourne may be an extremely un-flashy player at (soon to be) 29 years old with a 4.68 forty time, but he is a jack of all trades even if he is a master of none. Bourne can step right in and do his job better than at least half of the league’s receivers in just about all aspects of the short-to-intermediate game. That would be a huge upgrade for a Jets team that dealt with league-worst WR production outside of Garrett Wilson.

Bourne’s age, lack of flashy traits, low ceiling, and recovery from an ACL injury (which he will return from this summer) will likely lower his value to a number that is appealing for what he brings to the table. PFF is projecting him at $7 million per year while Spotrac has him at $4.8 million. If he falls somewhere between those two numbers, Bourne is an enticing short-game option for the Jets thanks to his ability to perform at a reliable level in many aspects of the position.

Vertical

Odell Beckham Jr.

Odell Beckham Jr.’s market got out of hand in 2023. The Ravens overpaid him at $15 million to pry him away from the Jets at the last minute, and they did not get their money’s worth. Beckham finished with 35 receptions for 565 yards and three touchdowns in 14 games.

While he did not live up to his contract, it’s not as if Beckham showed himself to be a washed-up player who no longer has value. At the right price, I think he can still be a useful player for any NFL team, including the Jets.

Beckham’s lack of volume was the main reason his 2023 stat line ended up being disappointing, as he only managed to catch 2.5 passes per game, a career-low. However, Beckham was an efficient big-play producer when called upon. He averaged a career-high 16.1 yards per reception and generated either a first down or a touchdown on 42.2% of his targets, which is better than his career average of 39.3%.

Most of Beckham’s production with the Ravens came through the air. Beckham averaged 11.7 air yards per reception, which ranked 11th out of the 82 wide receivers with at least 30 receptions. He was one spot ahead of D.K. Metcalf (11.3) and one spot behind Mike Evans (11.8).

The OBJ of old is long gone, but this version of the former 12th overall pick can still provide value as a low-volume, high-efficiency downfield threat. This would make him a perfect fit alongside someone like Boyd or Bourne with the Jets.

After a disappointing year in Baltimore, Beckham’s price should drop to a level that is more realistic. PFF projects he will sign for $7 million on a one-year deal. I see him landing in that ballpark.

If Beckham lands around the $7 million mark, the Jets should absolutely look to see if he’s still as interested in coming to New York as he was last year.

Josh Reynolds

Reynolds, who recently turned 29, has established himself as one of the league’s most efficient complementary receivers since he joined the Lions in 2021.

Since joining Detroit, Reynolds has caught 97-of-159 targets for 1,393 yards and 10 touchdowns. That’s over 38 games, but from a per-target standpoint, it looks like the stat line of a star receiver. While Reynolds isn’t good enough of a separator to demand targets all game long on a weekly basis, he comes through when he gets his opportunities.

Like Beckham, Reynolds did a lot of his damage through the air. Among 82 qualified WRs in 2023, Reynolds ranked 15th with 10.9 air yards per reception, four spots behind Beckham. Reynolds was especially dominant in the intermediate range (10-19 yards downfield), catching 21-of-32 intermediate targets for 380 yards and four touchdowns.

Reynolds is not a burner, but he uses his 6-foot-3 frame to make tough catches down the field at a tremendous rate. This is something Reynolds wasn’t great at earlier in his career with the Rams, but he’s figured out how to maximize his size over the past two seasons, and it’s the main reason he became such a key part of Detroit’s offense. Since 2022, Reynolds has snagged an incredible 14-of-22 contested catches (63.6%). His career rate prior to 2022 was 36.5%.

Reynolds has always offered steady hands, owning a career drop rate of 5.2%.

PFF is projecting Reynolds to earn $5.3 million per year while Spotrac has him at $7 million.

If the Jets can come away with any combination of Bourne/Boyd plus Beckham/Reynolds for a combined cost of around $15 million per year or less, I think it would be a phenomenal outcome. It would be a wise usage of cap space that leaves ample room for improving the offensive line, and the Jets would be three-deep at wide receiver with veterans whom Rodgers can trust.

Most importantly, with these specific players, the Jets would be adding complementary skill sets that make the offense well-rounded. A vertical threat like Beckham or Reynolds can force defenses to back off and yield space underneath, creating more room for a short threat like Bourne or Boyd to operate. The compatibility would allow for excellent per-target efficiency out of both players – Rodgers can pick and choose who to target based on what the defense gives him.

And if all goes well, having not one but two successful complementary receivers would prevent defenses from double-covering Garrett Wilson, allowing him to carve up one-on-one matchups all game long.

For some reason I can't read this on mobile unless I highlight it, which on my phone is not easy. I think you mention some boyd kid I never heard of and k Bourne who I have heard of and is far worse that lazzard. So pass on both . If we bring in a wr2 they have to be 1k wr with some ability, not those scrubs

[BornJetsFan1983]

There is not one we named here that would add value to the team. Crazy people want to go after trash.

Like just leave it alone on the floor it's trash. 

[BornJetsFan1983]

Don't eat trash 

[jetsfan56]

The point I got out of the article was that instead of paying 1/2 our current cap space on a single #2 receiver (Sutton for example) to try to fill the gaps with 2 players, one to stretch the field and a dependable slot. Many people in the NFL believe the QB makes the receivers , not the other way around. Hopefully we have the qb capable of lifting the receivers. Part of the issue with our receiver corps last year was we spent most of the season with one read QBs who had trouble getting to the 2nd or 3rd reads.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Rolloffjet]

56 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Courtland Sutton costs $14MM (and probably a mid-round draft pick). There's nothing cheap about that. 

What you talking about willis!!!

once you see how much the top wr make after cap went up he will be about 6-7 mill under that. I still stand by 14 mill is a bargain for a borderline #1

[FlightBoyz]

Gotta see what it'll take to acquire Brandon Aiyuk 

[Ghost]

I want nothing to do with Boyd. 

[Sperm Edwards]

41 minutes ago, Rolloffjet said:

What you talking about willis!!!

once you see how much the top wr make after cap went up he will be about 6-7 mill under that. I still stand by 14 mill is a bargain for a borderline #1

He’s not a borderline #1 WR. That’s why teams aren’t falling over themselves at the supposed bargain of trading for him.

[Paradis]

1 hour ago, Rolloffjet said:

What you talking about willis!!!

once you see how much the top wr make after cap went up he will be about 6-7 mill under that. I still stand by 14 mill is a bargain for a borderline #1

Borderline #1?  Put down the pipe, son

[Paradis]

1 hour ago, Ghost said:

I want nothing to do with Boyd. 

That's ok, I have more than enough want for Boyd to make up for any lost shares. 

[RedBeardedSavage]

Any updates on Corey Davis coming out of retirement?

I thought I remembered something about that early in the offseason.

[LionelRichie]

I think Ridley is a realistic option that won’t break the bank.  He’s not the same but he’s got gas left in the tank and his career arc matches with what AR has left.  

[Beerfish]

I like Boyd, what I would say is this team needs ONE FA wr, we can't rid of lazard at this point, we are stuck there.

We should be signing ONE and drafting TWO.

[Larz]

Jets are probably in the slot/ backup market.  I’d be very surprised if they landed a WR that is making over $4 mill 

[Larz]

Garrett Wilson 

Allen Lazard

Malik Taylor

Jason Brownlee

Xavier Gipson

Irv Charles 

 

they need something, they need a slot guy but they aren’t paying Lazard to sit on the bench.  He’s in the plans.  
 

Honestly the line needs 75 % of the resources and the rest on a veteran backup QB

 

until we get confirmation of a significant cap clearing move I’m not expecting any sort of big name here. 

[TuscanyTile2]

3 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Any updates on Corey Davis coming out of retirement?

I thought I remembered something about that early in the offseason.

I haven't heard anything about if it's actually going to happen but it sounded like it was a possibility and Connor Hughes said the Jets would welcome him back with open arms.

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

6 hours ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

Don't eat trash 

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

Marquise Brown is the best combination of youth, talent and need fill.

Jets are desperate for a burner on the outside.

Nabers looks like Jamarr Chase.

Too bad the Jets have 3 turnstiles on the OL and AVT coming off a nasty Achilles rip.

[BornJetsFan1983]

6 hours ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

Great episode 

[Maynard13]

15 hours ago, Rolloffjet said:

Dj chark please with a trade for sutton. Cheaper wr with tons of upside.

 

9 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I like Boyd, what I would say is this team needs ONE FA wr, we can't rid of lazard at this point, we are stuck there.

We should be signing ONE and drafting TWO.

Draft Xavier Leggett in round 3 and Malik Washington in round 4. X has really emerged as a deep threat and has been compared to DK Metcalf.   And Jets have been all over Malik who would be a dynamic chess piece for Rodgers. 

[Fantasy Island]

10 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Any updates on Corey Davis coming out of retirement?

I thought I remembered something about that early in the offseason.

Don’t need stone hands back.

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

Odell is a pimp .

[rangerous]

does this mean obj signed with the ravens because of money and not because adam sandler didn't call him.  oh wait, that's what tyreek said.  anyway, the jets do need a receiver to compliment gwilson.  i don't think they need two vets mainly because there's only one ball to keep them all happy.  and i don't think saleh does so well relating to vets.