Official NFL Draft Rumors and News Thread

[NYJCAP2]

8 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

Starting to feel like Odunze or Nabers is falling to 10. Odunze, please!!!!!!!

I think this has validity based on how poor the Bears DL is outside Sweat.

[Larz]

43 minutes ago, derp said:

Yeah, 2019 was the last year that wide receivers have fallen that way. The last four have been different. 

It’s nice that Jason at OTC has that perspective based on old contract data. His site is good. Sports evolve. I believe we’ve seen a small paradigm shift that makes sense based on how the sport has changed and that the data going forward will show something different than what the old data did. We’ll see.

If you look at the data, to me it’s all the concussion vulnerable positions. It might be as simple as CTE. 

It’s WR, S, LB, RB.  The other table listed TE but that’s a smaller sample but also a concussion position. QBs get more protection in the pocket. 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Albrights mock -

Quote

 

The Bills have made calls about moving up for a WR, but as of this writing I don't see that happening.

-There's a lot of talk centered around Michael Penix in the first recently. Most people I've talked to, their teams aren't considering that but could see another team doing that. I'd suggest that the leading teams to trade back in and do that would be the Patriots, Giants and possibly the Raiders (who love Jayden Daniels).

-There are some WR that may be traded during the draft that could definitely shake up the outcomes (Aiyuk, Sutton).

-Quite a few teams trying to burn the phones up as of this writing to get up and get their tackle. I expect a lot of trades.

So without further ado...

Bears - QB Caleb Williams. This is a no brainer. Everyone has known this since the Senior Bowl when they were openly shopping Justin Fields, despite reports to the contrary.
Commanders - QB Jayden Daniels. Almost universally everyone I talked to had him over Drake Maye.
Patriots - QB Drake Maye I really thought the Vikings might crack and make the trade to get here. Ultimately Pats take Maye.
Cardinals - WR Marvin Harrison While a trade back is possible, I suspect the parties that'd be interested simply aren't willing to give enough to move them.
Vikings (via LAC)* - QB JJ McCarthy Trade up! After missing on Maye, four QBs in the top 5. Vikings only give 1 pick this year + future 1sts.
Giants - WR Malik Nabers Several teams have him as the top WR in this draft.
Titans - OT Joe Alt Don't rule out a WR here.
Falcons - EDGE Dallas Turner Best coverage edge rusher for a scheme that demands their edges drop back at times. Latu in play here as well.
Saints (via CHI)* - OT Olu Fashanu Saints move up and fill a huge need.

Jets - TE Brock Bowers Versatile mismatch TE/ off the line Y for Aaron Rodgers. Fuaga a consideration here.

Chargers (via Minn)* - OL JC Latham I think the Chargers can get quality WR help later.
Eagles (via Den)* - CB Quinyon Mitchell Eagles trade up to get their corner. (give up pick 50)
Raiders - CB Terrion Arnold Raiders could look to go OL here as well. Not buying Penix at 13 hype.
Bears (via NO)* - DT Byron Murphy Bears land the premier IDL talent in the draft.
Colts - WR Rome Odunze Slide stops here, adds a weapon for Anthony Richardson. Could see trade down here.
Seahawks - OT Troy Fautanu OC Ryan Grubb was his collegiate coach
49ers (via JAX)* - WR Brian Thomas Jr I projected an Aiyuk trade and pick swap here
Bengals - OL Taliese Fuaga Slide stops here
Rams - EDGE Laitu Latu I think OT would be a strong consideration here as well.
Steelers - OL Graham Barton The Steelers need at C is well known. Russ needs clean A gaps to operate.
Dolphins - OL Jackson Powers-Johnson I think they'd love Barton to be here, but McDaniel will love JPJ personality
Broncos (via PHI)* - EDGE Jared Verse Possibility the Broncos could move back yet again and grab more picks. Nix is a day two talent.
Vikings - OL Tyler Guyton After not giving up this pick in trade (future picks) the Vikings get additional QB protection.
Cowboys - OL Amarius Mims Cowboys have too many needs to trade up, take the OL that falls in their lap.
Packers - DB Cooper DeJean Versatile DB can play safety or corner. Would be surprised to see Packers TRY to move up.
Buccaneers - EDGE Chop Robinson - Couple options here CB or edge. ultimately went edge.
Commanders (via AZ) - OL Patrick Paul Maybe a bit earlier than expected.
Bills - WR Xavier Worthy Bills tried to trade up but were unsuccessful. Land a WR anyway.
Lions - CB Kool Aid McKinistry Lions could be a trade back candidate here,
Ravens - OL Jordan Morgan Went back and forth with this one. Probably my most debated pick
Jaguars (via SF)* - CB Nate Wiggins Wiggins could slip to 2nd.
Chiefs - OL Kingsley Suamataia BYU connection again for Reid?

 

 

[Augustiniak]

So the jets pass on rome to take bowers, then the colts take rome and the 49ers take btj.  It always seems like they can’t find another spot for bowers besides the jets. 

[derp]

14 minutes ago, Larz said:

If you look at the data, to me it’s all the concussion vulnerable positions. It might be as simple as CTE. 

It’s WR, S, LB, RB.  The other table listed TE but that’s a smaller sample but also a concussion position. QBs get more protection in the pocket. 

Farther from the ball has historically been harder to play too. Guys just get a lot of reps running routes and stuff now in seven on seven so they're better prepared for the NFL. 

The old adage used to be you waited for a wide receiver to be in year three for him to break out. Now guys hit the ground running. They're just better prepared than they used to be and that makes them easier to evaluate.

But now offensive linemen get less true pass sets and teams move their best rushers around to attack mismatches. So I think OL is becoming harder to play immediately, more important to draft and develop, and it's becoming very obvious that it's a unit. Coaching and continuity there are huge, IMO.

We'll see how it evolves. It's a different sport but basketball always used to be about playing around the basket and it's shown up that it's less efficient and shooters have an outsized impact. I think football is a different version of the same thing. Line will always be important but I think just different. Why you see guards getting paid more. How you see teams paying guys is insightful. 

[mrcoops]

6 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

So the jets pass on rome to take bowers, then the colts take rome and the 49ers take btj.  It always seems like they can’t find another spot for bowers besides the jets. 

I really can't see the Jets passing on Odunze for Bowers. I can see them picking Bowers, but not with Rome still on the board.

[section314]

This mock is fantasy land. 

[BigRy56]

Oh! Doon! Zay!

[JohnnyLV]

22 hours ago, BigRy56 said:

My sources are telling me that the Jets could go up if they love a player but also trade back and get back that coveted 2nd round pick. They are also comfortable sticking and picking at 10

I hear they also have 9 players on their list that they have labelled "he was #1 on our board and our target all along. We are ecstatic he was on the board at 10"

[T0mShane]

Dane Brugler: Brian Thomas Jr has some medical flags that have dropped him down boards

[slats]

24 minutes ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

Albrights mock -

 

No way, imho. In that scenario, it has to be Odunze or their favorite OT. 

[JohnnyLV]

7 hours ago, Larz said:

Oh my. Take the OT  Jason at OTC did something similar and he was way down on LB too 

 

 

Problem with this data is if you did it over the last 5 years or so WR would be in green and OT would be in the yellow. The spread offense has completely changed the development and assesment of players in the draft\,

[PS17]

1 hour ago, NYJCAP2 said:

I think you’re off base here.

Could be. QBs are a total crapshoot. I’m not totally sold on Caleb even. 

[Greenseed4]

1 hour ago, BigRy56 said:

Starting to feel like Odunze or Nabers is falling to 10. Odunze, please!!!!!!!

Yes, after we draft Byron Murphy at 9, lol

[T0mShane]

43 minutes ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

Jets - TE Brock Bowers Versatile mismatch TE/ off the line Y for Aaron Rodgers. Fuaga a consideration here.

It’s so funny at this point.

Every draft dude: “Bowers is so good, dude. A real mismatch difference maker. If the Jets are lucky enough to get him, they should count their lucky stars”

Despite all that noise, not one of them has put Bowers above ten in their own mocks. This is an LOL-Jets thing, like setting up your ugly sister with the nice personality with your biggest loser friend. 

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

It’s so funny at this point.

Every draft dude: “Bowers is so good, dude. A real mismatch difference maker. If the Jets are lucky enough to get him, they should count their lucky stars”

Despite all that noise, not one of them has put Bowers above ten in their own mocks. This is an LOL-Jets thing, like setting up your ugly sister with the nice personality with your biggest loser friend. 

B/c there’s a big disconnect b/t rankings, scouts and who you draft.  This board has plenty of posts about drafting and positional value. 

That said i have seen the rumors about shoulder issues for both nabers and btj and i doubt it affects either.  I believe the jets would take btj over bowers anyway.

[T0mShane]

4 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I believe the jets would take btj over bowers anyway.

Is this based on anything or just a gut feeling? 

[Claymation]

40 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

Oh! Doon! Zay!

Nope

10. New York Jets

Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

I keep hearing "pass-catcher" when reaching out to sources about the Jets. That's not what I would do when the offensive line is anchored by two 33-year-old tackles in Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, but again, mock drafts are predictions. The Jets are all-in for 2024, and Bowers' middle-of-the-field ability and skills after the catch would help round out this New York passing game that currently lacks a third option behind Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams. Last season, 494 of Bowers' 714 yards came after the catch.

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

Is this based on anything or just a gut feeling? 

Just a gut feeling mostly.  But i base it on a few things:  1) jd needs an impact player in round 1 and a tackle does not have a clear path to immediate playing time, 2) mike williams may not be ready to start the season, 3) they can find tackle depth on day 2, and perhaps most importantly, 4) they still don’t have that one guy to really stretch the field.  Douglass has said numerous times in the past that he wants to attack the field on all 3 levels.  Garrett is not really the guy to attack the safeties the way these true big #1 wrs do.  If the broader strategy is to get early leads and then win with defense/turnovers and then run the ball, a guy like btj is more valuable than bowers.  He keeps those safeties back and if they cheat he will get behind the secondary.  He will open up run lanes too.  Bowers is a nice guy to get in mid round 2, but still he’s really only worth it if you build the o around him like Georgia did and the jets already have 2 volume guys in breece and garrett.  So i see rome/btj as logical fits for this offense before bowers. 

[UntouchableCrew]

25 minutes ago, JohnnyLV said:

Problem with this data is if you did it over the last 5 years or so WR would be in green and OT would be in the yellow. The spread offense has completely changed the development and assesment of players in the draft\,

100%. It's outdated. What guys from 2000-2006 did at WR is totally irrelevant to today's game. Rare instance where a smaller sample size would be better.

[sciond]

21 minutes ago, PS17 said:

Could be. QBs are a total crapshoot. I’m not totally sold on Caleb even. 

He attended the college that produces failed QB's....

[PS17]

1 minute ago, sciond said:

He attended the college that produces failed QB's....

Eh, I think the school thing isn’t that important. OSU didn’t produce anyone good and then Stroud happened. 

[Claymation]

15 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

It’s so funny at this point.

Every draft dude: “Bowers is so good, dude. A real mismatch difference maker. If the Jets are lucky enough to get him, they should count their lucky stars”

Despite all that noise, not one of them has put Bowers above ten in their own mocks. This is an LOL-Jets thing, like setting up your ugly sister with the nice personality with your biggest loser friend. 

Draft Wire and Fantasy Pro have him going 5th, Connor Rodgers has him going 6th. But yes the majority of the Mock Drafts have him going 10th.

[UntouchableCrew]

2 minutes ago, sciond said:

He attended the college that produces failed QB's....

I mean the college doesn't matter. He played at Oklahoma and USC.

Better question is have any of these Lincoln Riley guys actually panned out in the pros.

[RedBeardedSavage]

33 minutes ago, JohnnyLV said:

Problem with this data is if you did it over the last 5 years or so WR would be in green and OT would be in the yellow. The spread offense has completely changed the development and assesment of players in the draft\,

Heard DJ and Bucky sorta speak about this - and they both came to the conclusion that first round receivers as of late have hit or hit big, with only a few exceptions, whereas so many day 2 receivers have busted. 

I think it’s a good argument for the top 3 guys in this class, or at least worth considering.

I’ve been o line all-the-way for a while now but I kinda want to trade up for Nabers now, even if he’s a turd human.

Let’s win a Super Bowl and then deal with the aftermath later. 

That said, if we’re competing with teams trying to trade up for a quarterback? Then the price will be too high. 

[PS17]

Anti-hive mind slightly chaotic mock because I’m sick of reading the same sh*t from every pundit:

1. Bears - Caleb Williams

2. Commanders - Drake Maye

3. Patriots - Marvin Harrison Jr.

4. Cardinals - Malik Nabers

5. Vikings (trade up) - Jayden Daniels

6. Giants - JJ McCarthy

7. Titans - Joe Alt

8. Falcons - Dallas Turner

9. Bears - Byron Murphy

10 Jets - Rome Odunze 

[JohnnyLV]

3 hours ago, Larz said:

But WR is the bigger risk. Especially compared to OT

It is not anymore. College football has completely changed over the last decade. WR has actually become one of the easier picks to evaluate and OT one of the most difficult.

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, derp said:

Farther from the ball has historically been harder to play too. Guys just get a lot of reps running routes and stuff now in seven on seven so they're better prepared for the NFL. 

The old adage used to be you waited for a wide receiver to be in year three for him to break out. Now guys hit the ground running. They're just better prepared than they used to be and that makes them easier to evaluate.

But now offensive linemen get less true pass sets and teams move their best rushers around to attack mismatches. So I think OL is becoming harder to play immediately, more important to draft and develop, and it's becoming very obvious that it's a unit. Coaching and continuity there are huge, IMO.

We'll see how it evolves. It's a different sport but basketball always used to be about playing around the basket and it's shown up that it's less efficient and shooters have an outsized impact. I think football is a different version of the same thing. Line will always be important but I think just different. Why you see guards getting paid more. How you see teams paying guys is insightful. 

This is 100% true and why I am so opposed to OT at 10. The bust potential and opportunity cost is GIGANTIC

[derp]

29 minutes ago, Claymation said:

Nope

10. New York Jets

Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

I keep hearing "pass-catcher" when reaching out to sources about the Jets. That's not what I would do when the offensive line is anchored by two 33-year-old tackles in Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, but again, mock drafts are predictions. The Jets are all-in for 2024, and Bowers' middle-of-the-field ability and skills after the catch would help round out this New York passing game that currently lacks a third option behind Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams. Last season, 494 of Bowers' 714 yards came after the catch.

I thought we decided that Bowers is distinctly not a middle of the field player but that's potentially fine with Aaron Rodgers who likes throwing on the perimeter anyway. Takes like this are why I have such a hard time with the overall Bowers discourse.

[derp]

8 minutes ago, JohnnyLV said:

This is 100% true and why I am so opposed to OT at 10. The bust potential and opportunity cost is GIGANTIC

I think we've been in lockstep on this. 

This is a great tackle class and they should absolutely take one to draft and develop. Hopefully they can move up from 72. But if you're talking premium position that's easier to project I think getting one of those top three WR's would be huge. And post Rodgers it'd be nice to have a clear strong position group to give the offense a sense of identity. 

[Joe W. Namath]

18 minutes ago, PS17 said:

Anti-hive mind slightly chaotic mock because I’m sick of reading the same sh*t from every pundit:

1. Bears - Caleb Williams

2. Commanders - Drake Maye

3. Patriots - Marvin Harrison Jr.

4. Cardinals - Malik Nabers

5. Vikings (trade up) - Jayden Daniels

6. Giants - JJ McCarthy

7. Titans - Joe Alt

8. Falcons - Dallas Turner

9. Bears - Byron Murphy

10 Jets - Rome Odunze 

I think the Raiders are coming up to 8 or 9 to take Pennix.

[Claymation]

5 minutes ago, derp said:

I thought we decided that Bowers is distinctly not a middle of the field player but that's potentially fine with Aaron Rodgers who likes throwing on the perimeter anyway. Takes like this are why I have such a hard time with the overall Bowers discourse.

Who said that, "Not I, said Turkey Lurkey"

[derp]

4 minutes ago, Claymation said:

Who said that, "Not I, said Turkey Lurkey"

Thought it was a pretty solid discussion point in one of the Bowers' threads. Regardless of whether you said it, he doesn't operate much over the middle and even if he did the argument that it's a good fit for Rodgers is silly, so I don't think whoever wrote the mock analysis in your post is particularly well informed.

[Claymation]

1 minute ago, derp said:

Thought it was a pretty solid discussion point in one of the Bowers' threads. Regardless of whether you said it, he doesn't operate much over the middle and even if he did the argument that it's a good fit for Rodgers is silly, so I don't think whoever wrote the mock analysis in your post is particularly well informed.

He will be asked to work over the middle, unless Hackett is an idiot.

Matt Miller, contact ESPN Where he rated him in the draft.

10. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Height: 6-3 | Weight: 243 | Grade: 93
Comp: George Kittle

The perfect tight end for the modern NFL game, Bowers has game-changing after-the-catch ability and has even lined up at tailback for the Bulldogs on occasion. In his three seasons of play, he had 26 touchdown catches (plus five more scores on the ground) while averaging 14.5 yards per reception. He's a Kittle-like "move" tight end who can haul in passes on middle-of-the-field option routes. The rise of Kittle and Sam LaPorta as legitimate passing-game options and mismatch players is great for Bowers' draft stock.

[derp]

Just now, Claymation said:

He will be asked to work over the middle, unless Hackett is an idiot.

Matt Miller, contact ESPN Where he rated him in the draft.

10. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Height: 6-3 | Weight: 243 | Grade: 93
Comp: George Kittle

The perfect tight end for the modern NFL game, Bowers has game-changing after-the-catch ability and has even lined up at tailback for the Bulldogs on occasion. In his three seasons of play, he had 26 touchdown catches (plus five more scores on the ground) while averaging 14.5 yards per reception. He's a Kittle-like "move" tight end who can haul in passes on middle-of-the-field option routes. The rise of Kittle and Sam LaPorta as legitimate passing-game options and mismatch players is great for Bowers' draft stock.

Well goodness if Matt Miller says it I take it all back.

We already know a) half his targets come at or behind the LOS b) he has moderate target volume c) a lot of his non behind LOS target volume comes outside the numbers. If you’ve got conflicting data (actual numbers) that would be interesting, otherwise seems like you’re regurgitating things that a second rate analyst is regurgitating.