Official NFL Draft Rumors and News Thread

[C Mart]

As Pat Kirwan just said on Sirius - If you hear anyone talking about a team's board they are lying. Team's draft board are under lock and key especially nowadays w/camera phones.   Scouts don't even know the final rankings.  So unless you see an actual legit photo it's all BS.

[C Mart]

1 hour ago, BigRy56 said:

Oh! Doon! Zay!

So Douglas is telling media members?  Really?  It still may happen but we all know Douglas doesn't leak info. 

[BigRy56]

1 minute ago, C Mart said:

So Douglas is telling media members?  Really?  It still may happen but we all know Douglas doesn't leak info. 

Oh without a doubt. That’s why I can’t get too excited about the Bowers talk. 90% of mocks have us taking him. They’re probably going to take a guy like Latham

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

Give me Luke McCaffrey in round 4

And Rattler if he’s somehow still there 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

7 minutes ago, C Mart said:

So Douglas is telling media members?  Really?  It still may happen but we all know Douglas doesn't leak info. 

I don't think anyone is taking these "reports" too seriously. It's all gossip at this point.

BUT - nothing else to go of off, so might as well discuss it until the actual event happens.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

1 hour ago, Claymation said:

Last season, 494 of Bowers' 714 yards came after the catch.

Bowers is fool’s gold 

More than half the battle in the NFL is getting open 

He’s not going to average 100 yards of YAC per reception off screens and dumpoffs to the flat in the NFL like he did in college

If they actually take Fuaga at #10 over Alt or Fashanu, Joe Douglas should be fired on the spot 

[Claymation]

Just now, derp said:

Well goodness if Matt Miller says it I take it all back.

We already know a) half his targets come at or behind the LOS b) he has moderate target volume c) a lot of his non behind LOS target volume comes outside the numbers. If you’ve got conflicting data (actual numbers) that would be interesting, otherwise seems like you’re regurgitating things that a second rate analyst is regurgitating.

That is how Mike Bobo designed his offense for Bowers. To get him as many touches as he can.

If you don't like Matt Miller. That's fine. I am willing to bet that he knows more about these prospects than you do.

From CBS Fantasy

• Was top three among FBS tight ends in 2023 with at least 50 targets in receptions (56, 2nd), yards (714, 2nd), yards per game (71.4, 1st), yards per route run (2.68, 2nd), Yards After Catch per reception (8.7, 3rd) and avoided tackle rate (32.1%, 3rd). Was sixth in catch rate (78.9%), 11th in yards per catch (12.8), fourth in touchdowns (six), 12th in end-zone targets (five) and ninth in explosive play rate (22.5%).
• Bowers' ADOT (average depth of Target) was 6.55, 28th among those qualifying tight ends in 2023. In 2022 his ADOT was 9.02, fourth-best among tight ends. In 2021 his ADOT was 8.8, 14th among tight ends.
• On throws of five or fewer Air Yards over his career, Bowers caught 99 of his 175 receptions (56.6%). He gained 821 yards on those throws (32.3% of his total career yards) and scored nine touchdowns (34.6% of his total career touchdowns). That's less than ideal.
• Specifically on screen throws over his career, Bowers caught 40 of his 175 receptions (22.9%). He gained 318 yards on those plays (12.5% of his total career yards) with three touchdowns (11.5% of his total career scores). That's a little better, but not ideal.
• On throws of 6 to 14 Air Yards over his career, Bowers had 40 receptions for a nice 633 yards and seven touchdowns. That makes up 22.9% of his receptions, 24.9% of his yardage and 26.9% of his touchdowns.
• On throws of 15-plus Air Yards over his career, Bowers had 36 receptions for a jaw-on-the-floor 1,087 yards and 10 touchdowns. That means on 20.6% of his career grabs he hauled in 42.8% of his career yardage and 38.5% of his career touchdowns. It's worth noting that these numbers are heavily weighted by his freshman and sophomore years, not by his junior year when he caught nine such passes for "only" 258 yards and two scores.
• Over his career, 1,487 of his 2,538 receiving yards came after the catch. That was 58.6% of his total career yardage. By comparison, Sam LaPorta had 47.6% of his yards come after the catch and Kyle Pitts had 36.1% of his come post-grab. For Bowers, this is pretty epic even if it was manufactured by all the short throws he got.
• In the red zone over his career Bowers caught 29 of 46 targets (63%) for 231 yards and 15 of his 26 touchdowns with two drops. That's pretty good, but it's worth pointing out that in 2023 he caught just half of his 16 targets in the red zone for 66 yards and three scores. Again, he was better here in the past.
• If you drill down inside the 10-yard line you'll feel better about Bowers' 2023 compared to prior years. In 2023 he caught 3 of 4 passes inside the 10 for three touchdowns. For his career, he caught 14 of 19 targets for 12 of his 26 career touchdowns. No doubt he should be a low red-zone weapon for his next team.
• Bowers had 19 career rush attempts for 193 yards (10.2 yards per carry) and five touchdowns. Four of the touchdowns came in the red zone, none from the 1-yard line. In fact, Bowers never had a carry on a down with one yard to go -- but had four rushes with two yards to go, converting three for a first down and getting penalized on one for a personal foul (he got the yardage but the play was called back).

[Augustiniak]

6 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

Bowers is fool’s gold 

More than half the battle in the NFL is getting open 

He’s not going to average 100 yards of YAC per reception off screens and dumpoffs to the flat in the NFL like he did in college

If they actually take Fuaga at #10 over Alt or Fashanu, Joe Douglas should be fired on the spot 

Alt is probably gone by 10.  I get the feeling that if jd wants to go the safe route and not mess anything up he can simply take fuaga, who seems like a pretty safe OT prospect.  Not sure if he would take the LT with very small hands.  Maybe, but he loves measurables. 

 

[Greenseed4]

11 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

If they actually take Fuaga at #10 over Alt or Fashanu, Joe Douglas should be fired on the spot 

Did you put that in your letter to him?

[derp]

6 minutes ago, Claymation said:

That is how Mike Bobo designed his offense for Bowers. To get him as many touches as he can.

If you don't like Matt Miller. That's fine. I am willing to bet that he knows more about these prospects than you do.

From CBS Fantasy

• Was top three among FBS tight ends in 2023 with at least 50 targets in receptions (56, 2nd), yards (714, 2nd), yards per game (71.4, 1st), yards per route run (2.68, 2nd), Yards After Catch per reception (8.7, 3rd) and avoided tackle rate (32.1%, 3rd). Was sixth in catch rate (78.9%), 11th in yards per catch (12.8), fourth in touchdowns (six), 12th in end-zone targets (five) and ninth in explosive play rate (22.5%).
• Bowers' ADOT (average depth of Target) was 6.55, 28th among those qualifying tight ends in 2023. In 2022 his ADOT was 9.02, fourth-best among tight ends. In 2021 his ADOT was 8.8, 14th among tight ends.
• On throws of five or fewer Air Yards over his career, Bowers caught 99 of his 175 receptions (56.6%). He gained 821 yards on those throws (32.3% of his total career yards) and scored nine touchdowns (34.6% of his total career touchdowns). That's less than ideal.
• Specifically on screen throws over his career, Bowers caught 40 of his 175 receptions (22.9%). He gained 318 yards on those plays (12.5% of his total career yards) with three touchdowns (11.5% of his total career scores). That's a little better, but not ideal.
• On throws of 6 to 14 Air Yards over his career, Bowers had 40 receptions for a nice 633 yards and seven touchdowns. That makes up 22.9% of his receptions, 24.9% of his yardage and 26.9% of his touchdowns.
• On throws of 15-plus Air Yards over his career, Bowers had 36 receptions for a jaw-on-the-floor 1,087 yards and 10 touchdowns. That means on 20.6% of his career grabs he hauled in 42.8% of his career yardage and 38.5% of his career touchdowns. It's worth noting that these numbers are heavily weighted by his freshman and sophomore years, not by his junior year when he caught nine such passes for "only" 258 yards and two scores.
• Over his career, 1,487 of his 2,538 receiving yards came after the catch. That was 58.6% of his total career yardage. By comparison, Sam LaPorta had 47.6% of his yards come after the catch and Kyle Pitts had 36.1% of his come post-grab. For Bowers, this is pretty epic even if it was manufactured by all the short throws he got.
• In the red zone over his career Bowers caught 29 of 46 targets (63%) for 231 yards and 15 of his 26 touchdowns with two drops. That's pretty good, but it's worth pointing out that in 2023 he caught just half of his 16 targets in the red zone for 66 yards and three scores. Again, he was better here in the past.
• If you drill down inside the 10-yard line you'll feel better about Bowers' 2023 compared to prior years. In 2023 he caught 3 of 4 passes inside the 10 for three touchdowns. For his career, he caught 14 of 19 targets for 12 of his 26 career touchdowns. No doubt he should be a low red-zone weapon for his next team.
• Bowers had 19 career rush attempts for 193 yards (10.2 yards per carry) and five touchdowns. Four of the touchdowns came in the red zone, none from the 1-yard line. In fact, Bowers never had a carry on a down with one yard to go -- but had four rushes with two yards to go, converting three for a first down and getting penalized on one for a personal foul (he got the yardage but the play was called back).

So a whole lot of no data on him working over the middle. Very useful for our discussion about whether he has a significant track record of working over the middle.

[#27TheDominator]

2 hours ago, Larz said:

If you look at the data, to me it’s all the concussion vulnerable positions. It might be as simple as CTE. 

It’s WR, S, LB, RB.  The other table listed TE but that’s a smaller sample but also a concussion position. QBs get more protection in the pocket. 

Pretty sure this is backwards.  Linemen are most likely to get CTE.   See Webster, Mike RIP.  They say it is the number of head impacts, rather than the magnitude (think Jack Tatum smack for magnitude) that makes CTE more likely.

 

[Claymation]

3 minutes ago, derp said:

So a whole lot of no data on him working over the middle. Very useful for our discussion about whether he has a significant track record of working over the middle.

 

[Claymation]

the Jets and Aaron Rodgers

This is probably the chalkiest spot, the expected destination. Bowers visited the Jets on Monday and the team no doubt has an interest in surrounding Rodgers with difference-making skill players. Garrett Wilson will be the unrivaled top option in New York, but things aren’t completely settled behind him. You might recall that Rodgers once turned Robert Tonyan into a top-five fantasy tight end, so we’d have no reason to believe he couldn’t do the same for Bowers.

[derp]

31 minutes ago, Claymation said:

 

So again, no data on distribution of whether he catches passes over the middle. Is this just information you feel like posting since it’s obviously not related to the initial point of discussion or anything since?

Since that’s data through two seasons I’d add he was 2/9 on contested catches this year.

[T0mShane]

52 minutes ago, Claymation said:

the Jets and Aaron Rodgers

This is probably the chalkiest spot, the expected destination. Bowers visited the Jets on Monday and the team no doubt has an interest in surrounding Rodgers with difference-making skill players. Garrett Wilson will be the unrivaled top option in New York, but things aren’t completely settled behind him. You might recall that Rodgers once turned Robert Tonyan into a top-five fantasy tight end, so we’d have no reason to believe he couldn’t do the same for Bowers.

If Rodgers can turn a UDFA into a top five tight end, why do the Jets need to use #10 on one? 

[Larz]

1 hour ago, C Mart said:

As Pat Kirwan just said on Sirius - If you hear anyone talking about a team's board they are lying. Team's draft board are under lock and key especially nowadays w/camera phones.   Scouts don't even know the final rankings.  So unless you see an actual legit photo it's all BS.

They are doing a great job this year with the smoke. It went from QBs going first 4 picks to QBs and WR the first 7 picks and now the run on OTs is starting at pick 5 lol. 

[nycdan]

Just now, Larz said:

They are doing a great job this year with the smoke. It went from QBs going first 4 picks to QBs and WR the first 7 picks and now the run on OTs is starting at pick 5 lol. 

It sounds like a minimum of 12 players will be gone before we pick at #10.  

Damn...

[Larz]

12 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

If Rodgers can turn a UDFA into a top five tight end, why do the Jets need to use #10 on one? 

The oline is going to be in the hospital by week 6 and Tyrod will be in there by week 11. Need a fullback checkdown option 

[Tranquilo]

37 minutes ago, derp said:

So again, no data on distribution of whether he catches passes over the middle. Is this just information you feel like posting since it’s obviously not related to the initial point of discussion or anything since?

Since that’s data through two seasons I’d add he was 2/9 on contested catches this year.

This is from last year 

 

[32EBoozer]

Bengals Tee Higgins and Erickson requesting to be trades 

[Larz]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

Pretty sure this is backwards.  Linemen are most likely to get CTE.   See Webster, Mike RIP.  They say it is the number of head impacts, rather than the magnitude (think Jack Tatum smack for magnitude) that makes CTE more likely.

 

Did not know this. Thanks.  

[Larz]

1 minute ago, 32EBoozer said:

Bengals Tee Higgins and Erickson requesting to be trades 

That’s nuts. Major impact for their draft. 

[derp]

19 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

This is from last year 

 

The volume is still very low when you take out the behind the line of scrimmage stuff, but this is actually at least useful. 

[CanadienJetsFan]

If this Bowers guy is that good, then isn’t it fair to say that he might not still be there at #10?

Asking for a friend.

[Tranquilo]

20 minutes ago, derp said:

The volume is still very low when you take out the behind the line of scrimmage stuff, but this is actually at least useful. 

He’s still getting most of his targets in the middle of the field, past the line of scrimmage

[Tranquilo]

16 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

If this Bowers guy is that good, then isn’t it fair to say that he might not still be there at #10?

Asking for a friend.

Then Odunze it is 

[derp]

2 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

He’s still getting most of his targets in the middle of the field, past the line of scrimmage

If the dividing line is middle of field past the line of scrimmage or behind the line of scrimmage plus perimeter, it’s more of the latter not the former.

[Larz]

Wonder if Caleb Williams agent loses him tonight because another agent gets the patriots to trade up for him 

 

 

[HighPitch]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

If Rodgers can turn a UDFA into a top five tight end, why do the Jets need to use #10 on one? 

Oh snap

[Tranquilo]

12 minutes ago, derp said:

If the dividing line is middle of field past the line of scrimmage or behind the line of scrimmage plus perimeter, it’s more of the latter not the former.

Look closer, it’s 11-20 yards out where he gets most of his receptions 

[section314]

1 hour ago, Tranquilo said:

This is from last year 

 

Then he should go 4 th. No brainer.🤣

[derp]

13 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

Look closer, it’s 11-20 yards out where he gets most of his receptions 

That’s the single area but if you break out down the middle >0 versus everywhere else it’s about 1:2. Basically a little over 2 targets a game down the middle over 0 yards.

[Jetpain]

2 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

Alt is probably gone by 10.  I get the feeling that if jd wants to go the safe route and not mess anything up he can simply take fuaga, who seems like a pretty safe OT prospect.  Not sure if he would take the LT with very small hands.  Maybe, but he loves measurables. 

 

After last years draft and the whiffs on Becton & Zack, you would think JD whos job will be on the line doesnt swing for the fences and take a big risk, but rather takes the safe pick like a Fuaga to minimize his risk

[Tranquilo]

40 minutes ago, derp said:

That’s the single area but if you break out down the middle >0 versus everywhere else it’s about 1:2. Basically a little over 2 targets a game down the middle over 0 yards.

I think you’d be surprised at how all great receiving TEs get a lot of short targets too. What separates them and Bowers is that they does a lot more down the field.

[T0mShane]

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