Official NFL Draft Rumors and News Thread

[Mr. Rogers]

27 minutes ago, derp said:

He signed the contract in June of 2019 though. Unless it’s a six and a half year contract, if he’s coming off a bad season I’d think it’s more likely they have someone else do free agency and the draft and eat the last four months of his deal than do the Maccagnan firing again.

It's woody. You know he likes to get his money's worth off contracts just about as much as he can. He let Gase have a 2nd year for heavens sake 😂

Actually, if I'm 100% honest I wouldn't put ANYTHING past woody, including what you said. But since I believe we're stuck with Rodgers regardless, he'd need to tread carefully lest he upset his 42 year old baby.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

2 hours ago, Mr. Rogers said:

It's woody. You know he likes to get his money's worth off contracts just about as much as he can. He let Gase have a 2nd year for heavens sake 😂

Actually, if I'm 100% honest I wouldn't put ANYTHING past woody, including what you said. But since I believe we're stuck with Rodgers regardless, he'd need to tread carefully lest he upset his 42 year old baby.

It’s not that hard to read between the lines that Woody despises Zach Wilson and that, despite the empathetic talk about feeling bad for ZW and considering “what’s best for him”, they are holding out for absolutely any financial / draft capital relief they can get, even if it’s a lunch-box sized bag of Cheetos.

They will let Kapono twist in the wind all summer if it means they can get that bag of Cheetos.

JD trying to unload ZW

[Jack Straw]

49 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Man, if only there were some way of assessing in advance how "variables outside of a player's control that impact their production" might play out for a given player. That would be amazing.

I would think "look at the history of how other players at their position have done coming into the league" would be a method, but what do I know? Clearly that's not something applicable to Brock Bowers.

Using your logic, Christian McCaffrey shouldn't have been drafted at #8 because it's a high-risk position with plenty of busts to point to as evidence against him.

Lamar Jackson isn't worth a 1st round pick because the QB bust rate is through the roof, and RGIII was out of the league in handful of years.

Micah Parsons is not worth the #12 pick -- after all, he is only a LB -- drafting those in the first round makes no sense because it's the 10th most important position on the defense.

Kyle Hamilton isn't worth a top 15 pick because blah blah blah he's only a safety, and that's the 11th most important position on the defense.

Quenton Nelson isn't worth a top 10 pick because he's only a guard and Leonard Davis and Chance Warmack busted before him.

When you lazily lump these players into a box because they play a certain position, you refuse to examine all of the things that make them different than everyone else before them. In a redraft, everyone I listed would be a top 5 pick. Brock Bowers, like everyone else on this list, is fundamentally different than those before him and will redefine the position.

Your "method" is lazy and refuses to examine the player beyond the "position" he plays. It's all rather silly and shortsighted, to say the least.

 

[Adoni Beast]

13 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

 

It’s not that hard to read between the lines that Woody despises Zach Wilson and that, despite the empathetic talk about feeling bad for ZW and considering “what’s best for him”, they are holding out for absolutely any financial / draft capital relief they can get, even if it’s a lunch-box sized bag of Cheetos.

They will let Kapono twist in the wind all summer if it means they can get that bag of Cheetos.

JD trying to unload ZW

God I hate Cheetos...

[#27TheDominator]

8 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

God I hate Cheetos...

Communist

[Adoni Beast]

Just now, #27TheDominator said:

Communist

God I hate communists...

[peebag]

Just now, Adoni Beast said:

God I hate communists...

I love them!  Fried with a little bit of salsa, mmmmm-mmmm!

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

34 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

Micah Parsons is not worth the #12 pick -- after all, he is only a LB -- drafting those in the first round makes no sense because it's the 10th most important position on the defense.

He’s arguably the best EDGE rusher in the league, a premium position 🤣

I think you got carried away there.

Talent is obviously a factor too but you have to consider positional value picking that high.

If this were a trashy draft class like 2013 (Dee Milliner, Sheldon) and no other difference makers were available at #10 overall, yeah I guess you take Bowers.

This class is loaded with high-end talent at the 2 positions the Jets badly need:  WR and OT

[Adoni Beast]

13 minutes ago, peebag said:

I love them!  Fried with a little bit of salsa, mmmmm-mmmm!

They do need lots of seasoning to make up for the bland flavorless pathetic existence ....easy now....this is not a rally....

[derp]

53 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I’m using the <7-10 scenario because anything else means Douglas is likely coming back. The most likely result of this season is that Rodgers stays mostly healthy, the Jets cobble together ten wins and compete for a playoff spot all the way through. I think that’ll be good enough for Woody to offer up some extensions. BUT, in the event Rodgers, or Tyron Smith, or Garrett Wilson etc, don’t stay healthy and the <7-10 season occurs, imo, I don’t think the project tackle that Joe Douglas (who has been terrible with his tackles) selects and hands off to the execrable Keith Carter to coach up helps them all that much in the recruitment of a GM whom you hope can undo some of the damage left behind by the current regime. 

The Douglas comes back scenario is relevant in terms of figuring out the merits of the move though, right? I think there are more successful scenarios he gets shot into the sun as well.

You keep saying you don’t think it helps. That’s fine. We have not gotten to the idea that will actually impact the hiring process in a meaningful way, so who cares? They probably need to bring in a lame duck John Idzik type to tear it down to the studs regardless of whether they’ve got 8 or the tackle so I don’t understand why it should factor into the decision making.

[Jack Straw]

9 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

He’s arguably the best EDGE rusher in the league, a premium position 🤣

I think you got carried away there.

Talent is obviously a factor too but you have to consider positional value picking that high.

If this were a trashy draft class like 2013 (Dee Milliner, Sheldon) and no other difference makers were available at #10 overall, yeah I guess you take Bowers.

This class is loaded with high-end talent at the 2 positions the Jets badly need:  WR and OT

Micah Parsons was a MLB in college.

[derp]

1 hour ago, Mr. Rogers said:

It's woody. You know he likes to get his money's worth off contracts just about as much as he can. He let Gase have a 2nd year for heavens sake 😂

Actually, if I'm 100% honest I wouldn't put ANYTHING past woody, including what you said. But since I believe we're stuck with Rodgers regardless, he'd need to tread carefully lest he upset his 42 year old baby.

I wouldn’t put it past him but since he’s made the mistake once I’d guess he might try to avoid making it twice. But maybe he gives Douglas an eight month extension to tie everyone’s fate together.

[Sperm Edwards]

20 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Random idea, and I've been a bit out of the loop lately, but is Tee Higgins still angling for a trade?  I'd love to see some sort of creative tradeback with Cincy to #20 for Tee Higgins.  Maybe the Jets trade #10, their 3rd round pick, and a pick next year for Higgins and the Bengals' #20?  No idea if that would work but getting WR Higgins and then being positioned for an OT at #20 in a deep OT class would be a bit of a homerun IMO.

Would never happen, imo. They may as well trade the Bengals Mike Williams, too, in exchange for less in draft pick compensation.

$5MM of MW's $15MM pay for 2024 is tied to yards/TDs incentives. Further, if the playing time incentives are finishing with snap counts around or in excess of 60-70%, bringing in a WR like Higgins could easily affect at least some of another $100K/game that isn't guaranteed to him as he's dropped to WR3 snaps even if he never misses a game -- IOW the $15MM Williams figured he should reach as Aaron Rodgers's WR2 will/could drop down to just the $8.3MM amount guaranteed. He's going to be pretty moody about it all season, and I'd hardly blame him. 

They have to deal with a locker room of people, not just accumulate as many on-paper WR1s as possible for their fantasy/Madden team. Unless the Jets were being deceptive with MW when they signed him - to get him to sign an incentives-heavy deal they secretly knew they'd influence him never reaching - something like this just wouldn't happen.

So absent the universally obvious BAP at #10 being a WR, I wouldn't expect them to upgrade the position with a WR1-type unless they just get it right in drafting one in round 3. Again, not unless they're planning on trading Mike Williams, too. 

[BigRy56]

The more I read about Fautanu, the more I like him at 10

[slats]

43 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

Using your logic, Christian McCaffrey shouldn't have been drafted at #8 because it's a high-risk position with plenty of busts to point to as evidence against him.

Lamar Jackson isn't worth a 1st round pick because the QB bust rate is through the roof, and RGIII was out of the league in handful of years.

Micah Parsons is not worth the #12 pick -- after all, he is only a LB -- drafting those in the first round makes no sense because it's the 10th most important position on the defense.

Kyle Hamilton isn't worth a top 15 pick because blah blah blah he's only a safety, and that's the 11th most important position on the defense.

Quenton Nelson isn't worth a top 10 pick because he's only a guard and Leonard Davis and Chance Warmack busted before him.

When you lazily lump these players into a box because they play a certain position, you refuse to examine all of the things that make them different than everyone else before them. In a redraft, everyone I listed would be a top 5 pick. Brock Bowers, like everyone else on this list, is fundamentally different than those before him and will redefine the position.

Your "method" is lazy and refuses to examine the player beyond the "position" he plays. It's all rather silly and shortsighted, to say the least.

The faultiness of this list aside (QBs and pass rushers will always be worth first round picks), the logic here works great as long as the TE does, in fact, become the unicorn at his position along the lines of McCaffrey or Hamilton. If he doesn’t -if he’s merely a good starting TE- you’ve drafted a bust. However, when you draft simply a good starting OT or WR in the same spot, you’ve at least done adequately. 
 
Kyle Pitts was the last great TE prospect. That’s not currently looked at as a great pick for Atlanta, even though he’s a good player. But at least he’s full-sized. 

[Larz]

Would love to get this guy but it’s unlikely 

 

 

[jetstream23]

4 hours ago, Mr. Rogers said:

I absolutely love this idea, but a big issue is that we'd need to extend him. And Garrett Wilson will be eligible for an extension after the season too.

Sadly, pretty sure the Jets won't be able to make it work cap-wise unless Higgins is willing to do something tricksy with void years and a back-loaded contract. A rookie deal would suit the Jets a lot better, although as many have said I have a hard time seeing one of the big 3 fall to us... I like the direction you're going but it might suit the Jets better to find someone already on a team friendly deal (if someone like that exists)

Agreed.  I do think that's why the Mike Williams signing seems to be such a good fit, albeit risky.  Garrett Wilson should and will likely be the only chunk of WR salary cap money going forward once the Jets resolve that Lazard anchor.  This is the perfect year to get a rookie WR in terms of where GW is with his contract.  Maybe a trade back by a few spots from #10 and taking Brian Thomas would work out assuming the Top 3 WRs are gone.

[Adoni Beast]

12 minutes ago, Larz said:

Would love to get this guy but it’s unlikely 

 

 

Not necessarily unlikely....with a very top end heavy OT class there could be a nice gap in the 2nd where tackles aren't taken and leaving Rosengarten there in the 3rd.

[Larz]

2 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

Not necessarily unlikely....with a very top end heavy OT class there could be a nice gap in the 2nd where tackles aren't taken and leaving Rosengarten there in the 3rd.

Oh man that would be fun.  A guy that can play both sides has so much value 

[Lupz27]

3 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

Not necessarily unlikely....with a very top end heavy OT class there could be a nice gap in the 2nd where tackles aren't taken and leaving Rosengarten there in the 3rd.

Jets pick high enough in the 3rd where they can move back into the back end of the 2nd if they have a guy they love whoever that may be.

[Larz]

3 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

Not necessarily unlikely....with a very top end heavy OT class there could be a nice gap in the 2nd where tackles aren't taken and leaving Rosengarten there in the 3rd.

Thorn just did a video on the guy 

 

 

[Larz]

 

[Mr. Rogers]

43 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Would never happen, imo. They may as well trade the Bengals Mike Williams, too, in exchange for less in draft pick compensation.

$5MM of MW's $15MM pay for 2024 is tied to yards/TDs incentives. Further, if the playing time incentives are finishing with snap counts around or in excess of 60-70%, bringing in a WR like Higgins could easily affect at least some of another $100K/game that isn't guaranteed to him as he's dropped to WR3 snaps even if he never misses a game -- IOW the $15MM Williams figured he should reach as Aaron Rodgers's WR2 will could drop down to just the $8.3MM amount guaranteed. He's going to be pretty moody about it all season, and I'd hardly blame him. 

They have to deal with a locker room of people, not just accumulate as many on-paper WR1s as possible for their fantasy/Madden team. Unless the Jets were being deceptive with MW when they signed him - to get him to sign an incentives-heavy deal they secretly knew they'd influence him never reaching - something like this just wouldn't happen.

So absent the universally obvious BAP at #10 being a WR, I wouldn't expect them to upgrade the position with a WR1-type unless they just get it right in drafting one in round 3. Again, not unless they're planning on trading Mike Williams, too. 

@jetstream23 @Sperm Edwards

I said something similar, and I agree with spermys analysis above, but these posts got me thinking about a scenario where the Jets trade back and acquire a wr3/slot guy on a cheap contract rather than acquiring an extra pick (or along with a later round pick). A  couple examples might be Alec Pierce of the Colts and Zay Jones of the Jags, although we may need to fiddle with his salary. 

Of course, the Jets would prefer a 2nd/3rd round draft pick to get their own guy on a fresh rookie contract. There's no guarantee those teams would be willing to offload said players either, but it's one more avenue for JD to explore if he's having a hard time finding a trade-back partner in range of the top OTs.

I won't posit it as a likely theory but if I were GM I'd do a little homework on it, at least. 

Edit: while I think I implied it, I'd like to make it clear that this would be a scenario where other GMs aren't really that interested in giving the Jets a 3rd rounder to move up, and JD is exploring other options. Doing this shouldn't impede taking shots on WR deeper in the draft. 

[Jack Straw]

11 minutes ago, slats said:

The faultiness of this list aside (QBs and pass rushers will always be worth first round picks), the logic here works great as long as the TE does, in fact, become the unicorn at his position along the lines of McCaffrey or Hamilton. If he doesn’t -if he’s merely a good starting TE- you’ve drafted a bust. However, when you draft simply a good starting OT or WR in the same spot, you’ve at least done adequately. 
 
Kyle Pitts was the last great TE prospect. That’s not currently looked at as a great pick for Atlanta, even though he’s a good player. But at least he’s full-sized. 

Sure, but Michah Parsons was a MLB in college and left with 6.5 career sacks. He didn't have a resumè as a pass rusher.

And drafting a good TE at 10 does not equal a bust - I'm not following this logic. Kyle Pitts is 23 and has three years under his belt with 150 catches from the worst collection of QBs in the NFL -- few are calling him a bust. TJ Hockenson caught 95 passes last year -- again, not a bust. Noah Fant has started 62 of 71 games -- again, you can call him a bust but he's still a starting player in the NFL. 

The point I'm making is that ruling someone out as a high-end first round pick due to their position isn't an actual evaluation of the player. It's just lazinesss. And just because TEs in previous years were over-drafted (almost every TE in the past 10 years) doesn't mean you pass on the unicorn when he's there.

I was never on board with Kyle Pitts, Noah Fant, or any of the other TEs as high-end first rounders in previous years and wouldn't have drafted them if given the opportunity. As a general rule, I'd agree that drafting RBs, TE, S, and MLBs in the top 10 is bad business and should be avoided...but when you see a unicorn at the position, exceptions are made. And those exceptions are the Mccaffreys, Kyle Hamiltons, Quenton Nelsons, and yes, Brock Bowers.

[Integrity28]

57 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

They do need lots of seasoning to make up for the bland flavorless pathetic existence ....easy now....this is not a rally....

What kind of joewilly rallies are you attending?

[#27TheDominator]

23 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Agreed.  I do think that's why the Mike Williams signing seems to be such a good fit, albeit risky.  Garrett Wilson should and will likely be the only chunk of WR salary cap money going forward once the Jets resolve that Lazard anchor.  This is the perfect year to get a rookie WR in terms of where GW is with his contract.  Maybe a trade back by a few spots from #10 and taking Brian Thomas would work out assuming the Top 3 WRs are gone.

I think that by week 2 Rodgers would not be speaking to Thomas and freezing him out.  Not the best fit IMO.

[varjet]

3 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

If the jets go OL at 10 he’s the guy.  He can play guard on opening day and slide to tackle if someone gets hurt.  He makes a ton of sense over a guy like fuaga.  He’s the OL who is a win now and later guy.  

Watch the Jets take Fautanu and decline AVT’s option 

[CTJetsFan]

1 hour ago, BigRy56 said:

The more I read about Fautanu, the more I like him at 10

I'm sold. The AVT comparisons did it for me.

If the big 3 WRs are gone and Alt & Fashanu are gone, he's my guy if we don't trade back.

[CTJetsFan]

4 minutes ago, varjet said:

Watch the Jets take Fautau and decline AVT’s option 

I'd hate that. I know AVT needs to prove he can stay healthy and they can always tag him if they do decline the option, but he's a foundational piece IF he can get thru the year healthy and had no lingering adverse impact from the Achilles injury.

[slats]

23 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

The point I'm making is that ruling someone out as a high-end first round pick due to their position isn't an actual evaluation of the player. It's just lazinesss. And just because TEs in previous years were over-drafted (almost every TE in the past 10 years) doesn't mean you pass on the unicorn when he's there.

It’s about value. Kyle Hamilton can be the greatest safety in the history of the sport but, because of the low value of his position, he was not a value pick. The Jets and Chiefs got much better value later by drafting edge rushers in the same round. Kyle Pitts is a bad pick because he will never be worth what the three players taken after him -Chase, Waddle, and Sewell- are worth because of the value of the positions they play (and you can run down that first round and find many players who would’ve been better picks). Breece Hall was a dramatically better pick than Saquon Barkley because Barkley’s draft position gave him $31M fully guaranteed while the Jets are paying Breece just $9M over four years. 
 
My position on Bowers at #10 is based on the fact that I don’t think JD will be willing to pull the trigger on a low value position that high. In the first round for him so far, it’s been OT, QB, OL, CB, WR, Edge, and Edge. I just don’t think it’s gonna happen. If it does, I’ll be my usual cautiously optimistic self, and hope the guys like you who are absolutely in love with him turn out to be correct. 

[Adoni Beast]

22 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

What kind of joewilly rallies are you attending?

I don't attend any rally. I am the main feature sir.

[jetstream23]

14 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I think that by week 2 Rodgers would not be speaking to Thomas and freezing him out.  Not the best fit IMO.

Possibly.  Rodgers certainly has little patience for rookies and their growing pains.  That said, we've seen a lot of WRs hit the ground running right away.  How unfortunate that the Jets simply didn't extend Bryce Huff last offseason and then use that 1st Round pick last year on a guy like Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, or Rashee Rice?  Those guys are all getting ready to accelerate into their second seasons in the NFL right now.

[Augustiniak]

Just now, slats said:

It’s about value. Kyle Hamilton can be the greatest safety in the history of the sport but, because of the low value of his position, he was not a value pick. The Jets and Chiefs got much better value later by drafting edge rushers in the same round. Kyle Pitts is a bad pick because he will never be worth what the three players taken after him -Chase, Waddle, and Sewell- are worth because of the value of the positions they play (and you can run down that first round and find many players who would’ve been better picks). Breece Hall was a dramatically better pick than Saquon Barkley because Barkley’s draft position gave him $31M fully guaranteed and the Jets are paying Breece just $9M over four years. 
 
My position on Bowers at #10 is based on the fact that I don’t think JD will be willing to pull the trigger on a low value position that high. In the first round for him so far, it’s been OT, QB, OL, CB, WR, Edge, and Edge. I just don’t think it’s gonna happen. If it does, I’ll be my usual cautiously optimistic self, and hope the guys like you who are absolutely in love with him turn out to be correct. 

Not quite the same as a safety.  At least if bowers is really good, we see the impact he can make.  Safeties, not so much.  

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

1 hour ago, Adoni Beast said:

God I hate Cheetos...

😂 

@The Crusher bannable post

[wipes Cheeto dust off his hands]

[Beerfish]

2 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

God I hate Cheetos...