Tom’s Draft Media Brainworms 2024 Mock Draft

[Augustiniak]

FWIW

daniel Jeremiah’s final rankings came out today.  Among the more interesting:

rome - 3 - do we really think he’s falling?

fuaga 10, fautanu 11.  Latham 18

BTJ - 17

Patrick paul - 120

 

[Beerfish]

57 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

Interesting you say that. I just recieved my first SS check and did you know some guy named Tom called me to invest in Soybean meal futures and said he needed my SS #.  I told him I wasnt interested and referred him to @The Crusher

Dude, soya bean futures?   If you were serious about getting to Crusher it would have been pork belly futures.

[slimjasi]

14 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

FWIW

daniel Jeremiah’s final rankings came out today.  Among the more interesting:

rome - 3 - do we really think he’s falling?

fuaga 10, fautanu 11.  Latham 18

BTJ - 17

Patrick paul - 120

 

Would be shocked if Rome fell to us. Very little chance, IMO. 

Latham being 18 feels low. 

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

Would be shocked if Rome fell to us. Very little chance, IMO. 

Latham being 18 feels low. 

The main thing about the OL, with alt at 8, is that alt is not elite compared to the next 2 guys. 

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, slats said:

I respect your opinions and was really hoping for more from you on this subject. This player is undersized to the point where over 50-60% of his touches needed to be schemed wide open. If he has the acceleration to run jet sweeps in the pros, he has the acceleration to show that in the 40, but didn’t. 
 
You’re acting as if dominant college players have never fallen on their faces in the pros. That’s nonsensical. The primary case to draft him is that the 6’5”, 250lb Travis Kelce is a first ballot HoF’er. That’s not enough for me. 
 
I’m at least encouraged that you’ve said you’d prefer Nabers/Odunze, so that’s something. 

Sorry I'm letting you down, but I'm not sure what else to say that I havent already said.  Pick one of the your favorite variety of illogical reasons I've seen throw out there and it's kind of impossible to continue to counter all of them at this point.  I mean, now its his size that is going to hold him back but yet, you keep saying how he's not even really a TE.  Like that doesnt even really makes sense, so what am I supposed to say?  lol  It comes off as you're just making things up, especially when the TE who caught the most passes in the NFL this season was Evan Engram and he is 6'3 235 and the TE who caught the most TD's was Sam LaPorta and he is 6'3 245 but for some reason this is a negative for Bowers who is 6'3 240.  lol

 

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

13 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

Sorry I'm letting you down, but I'm not sure what else to say that I havent already said.  Pick one of the your favorite variety of illogical reasons I've seen throw out there and it's kind of impossible to continue to counter all of them at this point.  I mean, now its his size that is going to hold him back but yet, you keep saying how he's not even really a TE.  Like that doesnt even really makes sense, so what am I supposed to say?  lol  It comes off as you're just making things up, especially when the TE who caught the most passes in the NFL this season was Evan Engram and he is 6'3 235 and the TE who caught the most TD's was Sam LaPorta and he is 6'3 245 but for some reason this is a negative for Bowers who is 6'3 240.  lol

You are actually making a case against Bowers without realizing it.

No way I'd burn the 10th overall pick on Engram.

He didn't start balling until his 2nd team, and even if you told me I'd get that level of production from Bowers in year 1, I still think the jets should aim higher.  I'd rather have the franchise LT at cost control who in the open market would be worth 20+M per, or an elite WR1 who is worth maybe 25M per.

LaPorta was a 2nd round pick who the Lions have locked up for a bargain basement rate of 9.45M in total guarantees over 4 years.

[slats]

13 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

It comes off as you're just making things up, especially when the TE who caught the most passes in the NFL this season was Evan Engram and he is 6'3 235 and the TE who caught the most TD's was Sam LaPorta and he is 6'3 245 but for some reason this is a negative for Bowers who is 6'3 240.  lol

I will happily say that neither Engram nor LaPorta has proven to be worth a top ten pick, despite their 143 and 120 targets last year, respectively, which is a target number that Bowers would not sniff here. But you’re making my argument: the positional value sucks even when your comps are the top receiving TE and top performing rookie TE. 
 
And the large majority of Bowers receptions being completely uncontested is absolutely a concern. 

[JetsFlyer]

What the hell is up with the no 5 pick?  How do you publish a mock and say "I don't know"  

[Integrity28]

3 hours ago, Maynard13 said:

Have you been talking with @Integrity28? He is the one responsible for all this Vikings to pick 2 trade nonsense.  LSU HC ALREADY let the cat out the bag earlier this month when he said Daniels is going to be great in Washington. Ooooops.   MEOWWWW.  He obviously has inside info here. 

Anyways, how would this transpire:

BUT here is another scenario that is cuckoo. Lets say McCarthy is still on board at 10. Raiders say hey we want 10 for 12 and 44 OR here is Davante and 12 and they work something else out to balance the trade out. Hmmmm?  

Finish off this trade. Do we give the Raiders next year's #1 or #2 and get back a little somethiing to smooth it out?  Raiders have been stubborn when discussing Davante in a trade with Jets BUT getting McCarthy, they just might bite. Cant even wrap my head around how to make this equitable for both teams. 

I gotta admit, your incapacity to be accurate is marvelous - I genuinely don’t know if you’re trolling or if you are an after-school special about the dangers of  eating paint chips and licking outlets.

[nj meadowlands]

When was the last time the Jets traded down in the first round?  Was it 1997 (Orlando Pace)?

[T0mShane]

2 hours ago, JetsFlyer said:

What the hell is up with the no 5 pick?  How do you publish a mock and say "I don't know"  

It wasn’t my mock! It was reporting on the general narrative in the draft space either. Everyone presumes the Chargers will want to trade down, but nobody is sure what Harbaugh will agree to. 

[JustInFudge]

5 hours ago, slats said:

I will happily say that neither Engram nor LaPorta has proven to be worth a top ten pick, despite their 143 and 120 targets last year, respectively, which is a target number that Bowers would not sniff here. But you’re making my argument: the positional value sucks even when your comps are the top receiving TE and top performing rookie TE. 
 
And the large majority of Bowers receptions being completely uncontested is absolutely a concern. 

This is where I cant help you.  I'm not sure what you're looking for here, maybe you've been a Jets fan too long but scoring points, moving the chains, super duper important to winning Football games.  68% of the Brock Bowers receptions converted for a 1st down or a TD.  For a team that had the least amount of both 1st down and TD's in the league, I dont seems like that would be pretty helpful. 

I think you're getting a little too hung up on positional value (which is extra ironic because you wont even call him a TE) and in most situations, I'd agree w/ you.  But I wouldnt call this a normal situation because the Jets are strong at all the premium positions and IMO this a special prospect.  More than likely, the top WR's will be off the board.  They're not taking QB, CB, Edge, DT, S, RB, LB, K, P or a Long Snapper.  The choice will come down to a T, who will play part time and/or in case of emergency and is the same dude you can just draft next year, or a play maker who does what nobody else on the team can do and has HOF caliber potential.  You disagree and want to take some part T run of the mill player who comes around, every single year.  Have at it.  It will be awesome watching him on the sidelines while we wish we had more play makers.

[Maynard13]

5 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

I gotta admit, your incapacity to be accurate is marvelous - I genuinely don’t know if you’re trolling or if you are an after-school special about the dangers of  eating paint chips and licking outlets.

HaHa that is really lame HaHa

[Integrity28]

8 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

HaHa that is really lame HaHa

Sure it is.

[LionelRichie]

16 hours ago, nj meadowlands said:

When was the last time the Jets traded down in the first round?  Was it 1997 (Orlando Pace)?

traded out of rd 1 for Doug Jolley and drafted Nugent the kicker  in rd 2.   It almost seems like it doesn’t matter who the GM is, as soon as they come to the NYJ their brain completely shuts off.  

[slats]

11 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

This is where I cant help you.  I'm not sure what you're looking for here, maybe you've been a Jets fan too long but scoring points, moving the chains, super duper important to winning Football games.  68% of the Brock Bowers receptions converted for a 1st down or a TD.  For a team that had the least amount of both 1st down and TD's in the league, I dont seems like that would be pretty helpful. 

I think you're getting a little too hung up on positional value (which is extra ironic because you wont even call him a TE) and in most situations, I'd agree w/ you.  But I wouldnt call this a normal situation because the Jets are strong at all the premium positions and IMO this a special prospect.  More than likely, the top WR's will be off the board.  They're not taking QB, CB, Edge, DT, S, RB, LB, K, P or a Long Snapper.  The choice will come down to a T, who will play part time and/or in case of emergency and is the same dude you can just draft next year, or a play maker who does what nobody else on the team can do and has HOF caliber potential.  You disagree and want to take some part T run of the mill player who comes around, every single year.  Have at it.  It will be awesome watching him on the sidelines while we wish we had more play makers.

I’ve very clearly said all along that positional value is huge here and that whether you want to list Bowers as a TE, H-back, “big slot,” or FB, it doesn’t matter, because none of those positions are worth a top ten pick. Then, yes, I grow more concerned because he’s undersized. Another red flag is all the work he’s done from behind the LOS, because that’s not what TEs do a lot of in the NFL. David Njoku was the last big TE with a similar (but not quite as large) behind the LOS catch rate, and he just put up his first elite-TE level performance in his 7th year with 882 yards on 123 targets. 
 
I’m surprised that you’re presenting him in this same Gold Jacket way that @Gastineau Lives is putting forward without at least acknowledging the inherent risk involved. He is undersized. He looks fast, but he either refused to test or hasn’t been healthy enough to, and either one is bad. He’s the best TE prospect ever who also only lined up at TE like 40% of the time. He’s done next to no work in the 0-9 range in college which is where a TE makes his living in the NFL. To justify the pick, he needs to be an all time great at the position, while the WR or OT taken there would merely need to be a solid or better starter to be acceptable. 
 
And to be clear, I’m not one of the OL in the first round guys, but I do see that as a genuine option for JD, who has a lot riding on this season. Like you, I’d prefer one of the top WRs. If they’re not there, I’m hoping JD can find a partner to move down because analytics are my true passion and the more picks you have the better odds you have of finding something. If he’s stuck, I think Brian Thomas becomes an option before Bowers, too. I’m more concerned about the WR position than the OL. The line at least has a couple fourth rounders in reserve while the WRs have UDFAs. 

[Gastineau Lives]

1 minute ago, slats said:

I’ve very clearly said all along that positional value is huge here and that whether you want to list Bowers as a TE, H-back, “big slot,” or FB, it doesn’t matter, because none of those positions are worth a top ten pick. Then, yes, I grow more concerned because he’s undersized. Another red flag is all the work he’s done from behind the LOS, because that’s not what TEs do a lot of in the NFL. David Njoku was the last big TE with a similar (but not quite as large) behind the LOS catch rate, and he just put up his first elite-TE level performance in his 7th year with 882 yards on 123 targets. 
 
I’m surprised that you’re presenting him in this same Gold Jacket way that @Gastineau Lives is putting forward without at least acknowledging the inherent risk involved. He is undersized. He looks fast, but he either refused to test or hasn’t been healthy enough to, and either one is bad. He’s the best TE prospect ever who also only lined up at TE like 40% of the time. He’s done next to no work in the 0-9 range in college which is where a TE makes his living in the NFL. To justify the pick, he needs to be an all time great at the position, while the WR or OT taken there would merely need to be a solid or better starter to be acceptable. 
 
And to be clear, I’m not one of the OL in the first round guys, but I do see that as a genuine option for JD, who has a lot riding on this season. Like you, I’d prefer one of the top WRs. If they’re not there, I’m hoping JD can find a partner to move down because analytics are my true passion and the more picks you have the better odds you have of finding something. If he’s stuck, I think Brian Thomas becomes an option before Bowers, too. I’m more concerned about the WR position than the OL. The line at least has a couple fourth rounders in reserve while the WRs have UDFAs. 

What is the 0-9 range?

[slats]

6 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

What is the 0-9 range?

0-9 yards downfield. I forget the exact numbers outside of the 48% of his catches behind the LOS, but his catch% in the 0-9 range was in the single digits or thereabouts. The rest of his work was in the 10+ range. 

[Gastineau Lives]

8 minutes ago, slats said:

0-9 yards downfield. I forget the exact numbers outside of the 48% of his catches behind the LOS, but his catch% in the 0-9 range was in the single digits or thereabouts. The rest of his work was in the 10+ range. 

Bowers targets at or behind line of scrimmage:
2021 and 2022 with Moncken OC and Bennett QB - 41 of 144 28%
2023 with Bobo OC and Beck QB 35 of 72 48%

2023 first half targets - 58% at or behind LOS
2023 second half - 38% at or behind LOS

They obviously didn’t trust Beck at the beginning of the season. 66 percent of his first 30 passes to Bowers were at or behind LOS

Is the argument now that his targets are TOO down the field?

[slats]

3 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Is the argument now that his targets are TOO down the field?

Not really, but I’d like to see more work where he’d be expected to get the bulk of his work at the pro level, and that’s in that move-the-chains area of 0-9 yards downfield in heavy traffic. For all of the guy’s glittering highlights, I’m not seeing much in the way of contested catches. 
 
I’ll say for you again; I understand the hype and don’t discount the possibility that he is, in fact, the unicorn. But the history of evaluating and drafting the TE position tells me that it’s extremely risky to bank on one being the next great thing. A number of TEs have come out with similar labeling in recent years, but none have lived up to the hype. The “but this is the one!” argument isn’t enough for me. I’ve heard it before. So have you. 

[Gastineau Lives]

3 minutes ago, slats said:

Not really, but I’d like to see more work where he’d be expected to get the bulk of his work at the pro level, and that’s in that move-the-chains area of 0-9 yards downfield in heavy traffic. For all of the guy’s glittering highlights, I’m not seeing much in the way of contested catches. 
 
I’ll say for you again; I understand the hype and don’t discount the possibility that he is, in fact, the unicorn. But the history of evaluating and drafting the TE position tells me that it’s extremely risky to bank on one being the next great thing. A number of TEs have come out with similar labeling in recent years, but none have lived up to the hype. The “but this is the one!” argument isn’t enough for me. I’ve heard it before. So have you. 

I’m telling you, I’ve watched every target from his entire college career more than once (since they love to turn a 10 min video into a 25 min video by replaying the same play) and he had plenty of catches in that range. There’s no doubt in my mind he can do that. 

[slats]

1 minute ago, Gastineau Lives said:

I’m telling you, I’ve watched every target from his entire college career more than once (since they love to turn a 10 min video into a 25 min video by replaying the same play) and he had plenty of catches in that range. There’s no doubt in my mind he can do that. 

That’s cool. It’s still a massive risk to draft an undersized TE at #10 with no athletic testing numbers to back it up. I’m not moving off of that hill. Brian Thomas does more for the offense this year and into the future than Bowers does unless Bowers actually is a small Travis Kelce. If he’s just a top ten TE, that’s Dalton Kincaid’s 673 yards and 2 TDs. The top 25 WRs last year all broke 1000. This is why positional value matters, and WRs are far more valuable than TEs. 

[Gastineau Lives]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

That’s cool. It’s still a massive risk to draft an undersized TE at #10 with no athletic testing numbers to back it up. I’m not moving off of that hill. Brian Thomas does more for the offense this year and into the future than Bowers does unless Bowers actually is a small Travis Kelce. If he’s just a top ten TE, that’s Dalton Kincaid’s 673 yards and 2 TDs. The top 25 WRs last year all broke 1000. This is why positional value matters, and WRs are far more valuable than TEs. 

So just purely on your standard, all 25 of those wide receivers are more valuable than Travis Kelce. 
 

Somehow there were three top TEs (not counting Andrews) in the final four of the playoffs but only Aiyuk and Amon Ra left. I’m not counting Deebo because he’s used in a way that you complain about Bowers being used. 
 

We’re just going to have to disagree on the value of a player that can be used in a number of ways both in the run game and the passing game.

[Sperm Edwards]

6 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

So just purely on your standard, all 25 of those wide receivers are more valuable than Travis Kelce. 

The way I read it, he literally said just the opposite.

The problem outlined is that it's not great use of the pick unless he's Travis Kelce II, and that's a particularly high bar to meet. 

Maybe he'll be just that, in which case no one has any issues with the selection and we'll be thrilled having him for a long HOF career. However if he's typically a mere 700+ yard/year TE, with a once or twice 900-yard season thrown in there, then it's not such great use of a top 10 pick (unless they'd have just taken a WR bust instead, of course).

In either case, whatever his production, if it leads to a championship I could overlook anyone's less than HOF stats as a means to an end. Of course, that's also a high bar to meet as well.

[Gastineau Lives]

6 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The way I read it, he literally said just the opposite.

The problem outlined is that it's not great use of the pick unless he's Travis Kelce II, and that's a particularly high bar to meet. 

Maybe he'll be just that, in which case no one has any issues with the selection and we'll be thrilled having him for a long HOF career. However if he's typically a mere 700+ yard/year TE, with a once or twice 900-yard season thrown in there, then it's not such great use of a top 10 pick (unless they'd have just taken a WR bust instead, of course).

In either case, whatever his production, if it leads to a championship I could overlook anyone's less than HOF stats as a means to an end. Of course, that's also a high bar to meet as well.

Well you’re not the best with words 😋

I’ve seen reception yardage being used as the only measuring stick when I don’t think it should be with TEs. If you want to say he can’t block you can, you’d be wrong but you could.

[LionelRichie]

22 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

Help you understand how a player who dominated the best competition in college, on the best team in college, as the focal point of their offense because of his athleticism, play making ability, versatility, ability to line up anywhere and produce at a historic rate, translates?  This is a serious question?  How are you getting him the ball is a serious question?  lmfao.   

Oh my man, this is exhausting. 

so much to unpack here it's probably not even worth it.   I don't think you are getting slats point on positional value.   The cost of a good OT or WR is $20-30M / year.   The cost of the BEST TE in the entire league is ~$15m.   Don't hate the player, hate the game.   The NFL GM's have determined that TE doesn't impact the game as much as other positions so when you have a chance to get a 3-4 year starter at $5M/year in a position that typically costs $20M+, you jump at it.  

we get that you love Bowers and I'm sure he's a fine player.   But the best anything in college doesn't always translate (see Eric Crouch, RG3, Ty Detmer, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Ricky Williams, Ron Dayne, Marcus Marriotta, Jameis Winston, Matt Leinart, etc...).   

 

[Greenseed4]

57 minutes ago, slats said:

That’s cool. It’s still a massive risk to draft an undersized TE at #10 with no athletic testing numbers to back it up. I’m not moving off of that hill. Brian Thomas does more for the offense this year and into the future than Bowers does unless Bowers actually is a small Travis Kelce. If he’s just a top ten TE, that’s Dalton Kincaid’s 673 yards and 2 TDs. The top 25 WRs last year all broke 1000. This is why positional value matters, and WRs are far more valuable than TEs. 

 

46 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

So just purely on your standard, all 25 of those wide receivers are more valuable than Travis Kelce. 
 

I keep seeing these arguments against drafting Bowers:  
WRs get more yards.
WRs get more receptions.

On the whole this is easily true.  

However, not all yards and catches are the same. A TE that can be trusted to convert third downs, that can be a factor in the red zone, and can be an asset in the running game (better than an undersized slot receiver, anyway) is extremely valuable.

Extending drives may not be as sexy but it’s been highly underrated in this thread.

That said, a “special” WR is still better than a “special” TE, which is why I am in favor of trading up for Nabers and regretting it in 2-3 years when he becomes a head-case.  But if we’re comparing Bowers to tier-2 WR prospects, I would hope we get the “TE”

[slats]

56 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

So just purely on your standard, all 25 of those wide receivers are more valuable than Travis Kelce.

Lol, no. What I’m saying is that your argument to draft the 6’3”, 240lb Bowers is that 6’5”, 250lb Travis Kelce is a first ballot HoF’er. I’m rather generously comping him as a top ten TE, which would put him next to Dalton Kincaid - who just so happens to be the last TE we were supposed to take because of the existence of Travis Kelce. 
 
I’m not saying draft Brian Thomas because - RANDY MOSS! I’m saying draft a WR over a TE because the 25th best WR in the league last year blows away the production of merely a top ten TE and, in fact, also outproduced Kelce and the #1 TE (Kittle) last year. 

[ARodJetsFan]

2 hours ago, slats said:

I’ve very clearly said all along that positional value is huge here and that whether you want to list Bowers as a TE, H-back, “big slot,” or FB, it doesn’t matter, because none of those positions are worth a top ten pick. Then, yes, I grow more concerned because he’s undersized. Another red flag is all the work he’s done from behind the LOS, because that’s not what TEs do a lot of in the NFL. David Njoku was the last big TE with a similar (but not quite as large) behind the LOS catch rate, and he just put up his first elite-TE level performance in his 7th year with 882 yards on 123 targets. 
 
 I’m more concerned about the WR position than the OL. The line at least has a couple fourth rounders in reserve while the WRs have UDFAs. 

Spot on @slats

Our 2 greatest positions of need.

OL & WR.

Safety would be my 3rd position of need.

[slats]

4 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

A TE that can be trusted to convert third downs, that can be a factor in the red zone, and can be an asset in the running game (better than an undersized slot receiver, anyway) is extremely valuable.

I’d be a lot more interested if we were talking about the next Gronk rather than the next Evan Engram. 

[Greenseed4]

2 minutes ago, slats said:

I’d be a lot more interested if we were talking about the next Gronk rather than the next Evan Engram. 

I get it. I was always more a fan of the idea of Dustin Keller than what he actually produced on the field.  I don’t subscribe to the Uber stat sites.  Gastineau is saying 68% of Bowers’ college receptions converted for first downs.

That’s a big deal right?
How does that compare to the top 25 WRs?

[RutgersJetFan]

On 4/21/2024 at 9:13 AM, T0mShane said:

After Alt, he’s reportedly the most coveted guy. 

Unless they look at him as an Alt-ernative. 

[T0mShane]

3 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Unless they look at him as an Alt-ernative. 

cc: @Smizzy

[slats]

8 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

I get it. I was always more a fan of the idea of Dustin Keller than what he actually produced on the field.  I don’t subscribe to the Uber stat sites.  Gastineau is saying 68% of Bowers’ college receptions converted for first downs.

That’s a big deal right?
How does that compare to the top 25 WRs?

Travis Kelce had 50 first downs on 93 receptions with Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball in a championship season. Garrett Wilson had 47 first downs on 95 receptions with some of the worst QB play in the league, in what he called his most frustrating season ever. 

[Claymation]

20 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

FWIW

daniel Jeremiah’s final rankings came out today.  Among the more interesting:

rome - 3 - do we really think he’s falling?

fuaga 10, fautanu 11.  Latham 18

BTJ - 17

Patrick paul - 120

 

Do I think, or do I hope?