Tom’s Draft Media Brainworms 2024 Mock Draft

[T0mShane]

So, I’ve gotten big into listening to podcasts at work to make the day go by and, predictably, it’s turned my brain into rock candy and I thought I’d share with the group the fetid stew of information gleaned from these more reputable NFL podcasts, in mock draft form, for those whose lives are spent doing more fulfilling, normal things. 
 

1. Bears: Caleb Williams

Pretty much a lock at this point. The smart QB draft guys have all coalesced around Williams being in that Luck/Trevor tier of prospect that they all love. I thought earlier on that Washington would make a push to trade up because Williams is from DC and his dad is a bit of a meddler. But, both Williams and the Bears are speaking openly about the inevitability of this pick. 
 

2. Commanders: Jayden Daniels

A week ago, Vegas had this as a near-certainty to happen, but things have tightened considerably since. Rumors persist that Daniels prefers the Pats, and this week Daniels’ agent indicated Daniels was pissed about flying into DC for what he thought was a one on one interview, which turned into a pack of prospects—including the other top QBs—getting dragged to Top Golf for some whack sociological experiment to see how those prospects responded in that setting. Commanders GM Adam Peters is a Niners progeny, and head coach Dan Quinn is the ultimate vibes guy—does Daniels being a titty-baby scare them off this pick? Daniels responded by flying out to Minnesota for an interview with their higher-ups. Schefter has been pounding away on Daniels being the Commies’ guy, though he has recently suggested that things aren’t as locked up as they were pre-Top Golf. Personally, I would lose my sh*t if somebody made me go to Top Golf.

3. Patriots OR Vikings: Drake Maye

There is some thought that there exists a division at the top ranks of the Pats hierarchy. New Not-GM Eliot Wolf (he hasn’t been given the title officially) and head coach Jerod Mayo are ok with trading out of this pick because the offensive talent is threadbare and it’ll require a multi-year rebuild just to get to average, but Robert Kraft is old and wants to reassert himself into running the team after finally ridding himself of scumbag Bill Belichick, and he wants to kick off the new era by bringing in a fresh-faced new QB. There is some thought that Kraft would prefer JJ McCarthy because of the Michigan QB connection, but Maye is the more physically talented prospect, even though Maye’s game is getting absolutely savaged in most corners of the draft media spectrum. The Vikings are very clearly trying to come up for a QB and they can currently offer #11, #23, and future picks for #3, but there’s some debate as to which QB Minnesota prefers. They were heavily rumored to prefer McCarthy after the Combine (due to some allusions made by GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah), but the Vikings recently hired Josh McCown as their QB coach, and McCown was Maye’s coach in high school (h/t @derp). But if Daniels falls, he becomes the consensus top QB on the board here, at which point do the Pats just stick and take him? Big hinge point here, but the guess is that Kraft will put his foot down for Drake Maye. 
 

4. Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. 

Some thought that the Cardinals want to trade out of this pick (most commonly to the Vikings, for the reasons discussed above), but would they pass on pairing Marvin Harrison Jr with Kyler Murray? GM Monti Ossenfort manipulated several trades last year and looked like a genius in the end, but at some point he’s going to have to win some games. The Cards have a lot of draft capital already, so unless they find a sucker team desperate to come up for McCarthy, the prevailing wisdom is that they just stick and pick their new Larry Fitzgerald. 
 

5. Chargers or Vikings or Giants or Raiders or Denver: ?

Nobody knows what’s going to happen at this spot. It’s widely presumed the Chargers will sell this pick to the highest bidder for JJ McCarthy, but nobody really knows because Jim Harbaugh is a bit of a nutbag who might want to use this pick on JC Latham or whomever he determines is the most macho guy on the board. It’d seem to be a perfect landing spot for Joe Alt, but they already have Rashawn Slater at LT, and it’s unclear that Alt is the type of sh*tkicker that Harbaugh prefers at RT, which could leave an opening for a guy like Latham—whom the OL community loves-loves—or even Fuaga. Chargers could also go receiver here, but Harbaugh is weird about his receivers dating back to his time with the Niners (ended up drafting catastrophic first round bust AJ Jenkins and trading for Anquan Boldin). BUT, Harbaugh has also signaled that the Chargers would be fine moving down, in which case the bidding war for McCarthy breaks out. Giants and Vikings are supposedly hot for McCarthy, but Denver is desperate and the Raiders are the Raiders. The Broncos probably lack the draft capital to get it done, but Payton could throw Pat Surtain on the table if he really wants to go for it. (Broncos insider Ben Albright strongly denies that Surtain will be traded fwiw). 
 

6. Giants: Rome Odunze OR Drake Maye

Daboll is allegedly in love with both Odunze and Nabers, so it could be a preference thing for them. Odunze is a big-bodied receiver the Giants currently lack, and he’s the perfect target vacuum for the Giants scattershot QBs in Daniel Jones and Drew Lock. There is some thought that the Giants could aggressively pursue McCarthy as a means to reset the clock on Daboll’s job security, but he probably doesn’t have that kind of time regardless. That said, what do the Giants do if Drake Maye slides to them? Joe Schoen was in Buffalo when they took a similar prospect in Josh Allen, and Daboll is the coach who’s largely credited with converting Allen from a running back (h/t @Jetsfan80 into an All Pro QB. Hard to see how they pass on that potential. 
 

7. Titans: Joe Alt

This has been the scratch pick all along because the Titans OL has been terrible, and they currently have nothing at LT. In recent days, rumors have surfaced that the Titans are trying to move down because they have the best OL coach in the sport in Bill Callahan and don’t have to draft a ready-made tackle here. Seems unlikely because Alt is Callahan’s platonic ideal of an offensive lineman.

8. Jets or Denver or Bills or Bengals: Malik Nabers OR Brock Bowers

This is the Atlanta pick and they’re all but assured to trade out of it because they’ve picked in the top ten three straight years and they’ve taken offensive skills guys with each of those picks. No more. The Bills are desperate for a receiver and their window is rapidly closing. The Bengals are probably losing Tee Higgins next year (if they don’t trade him this week), and will need a replacement, and they could also use Bowers pretty effectively because Burrow throws to all areas of the field. And the Jets should move up for Nabers, but could they put together a package to move up two spots that’d make it worthwhile for the Falcons to move to ten? If the Falcons don’t see the need to stay at 8 to draft their favorite defensive player, what good does it do them to drop to ten? For what, a fourth and a future third? Eh. From the Jets perspective, you’d want the Colts or Bengals to come up for Bowers or OL help, which could drive Nabers down. 
 

9. Bears: Malik Nabers

This is another pick that’s widely believed to be for sale at a relative discount but, as with the Falcons pick, it’s dependent on someone wanting Bowers or Nabers, which screws the Jets anyway. The Bears have limited draft capital beyond picks 1 and 9, so it’s widely believed they’d drop down for a package of 2024 picks, or they can just stick and pick another weapon for Caleb Williams. They just gave Cole Kmet a bunch of money and signed Gerald Everett in free agency, so TE probably isn’t a need, but they have Keenan Allen on a one-year deal, and little else beyond him and DJ Moore at receiver. Nabers would probably be the pick unless Nabers is too much of a head case for them. 
 

10. Jets: Fuaga

Thank God we beat the Patriots and Commanders, baby. Initial thought—the Jets should go HAM and move up as far as they can for Odunze because Douglas is probably being served his last meal after this draft anyway. But, I think the competition and the price to move up to three or five will be pretty fierce because of all the QB traffic, and Douglas is going to get frozen out by the cost. Odunze is this year’s universally beloved prospect, so it’s highly unlikely he gets past six, which leaves the Jets hoping for a Nabers fall. Problem there is that both the Bears and Falcons are shopping for defense and will happily be shopping picks 8 and 9 in front of the Jets, making ten all but worthless as a trade chip. That said, Fuaga is a great prospect and could be a long-time stalwart right tackle for the Jets and that’s nice. If you wanted to be vindictive about this selection, you could say that we had to use ten on Fuaga because 1. Douglas took Becton and his weed habit because Tristan Wirfs was supposedly RT-only and 2. He sat on his ass and get cucked by Belichick last year, letting the Steelers trade up for Broderick Jones in front of his face. You could further be petty about this pick by suggesting that you’re drafting Fuaga as insurance for two older tackles whom you’re praying stay healthy for ~13 games when you could just go sign Bakhtiari or Donovan Smith on the cheap after the draft to fill the same role, only more capably in the short term. Alternative pick would be Troy Fautanu because of his versatility, but you don’t want to use top ten picks on a guy because he’s versatile, you want him to be dominant. You get “versatile” OL in the fourth. 

[freestater]

I'd prefer Fuaga to Bowers. 

[Larz]

Crazy hunch based on basically nothing but I think a possible curve ball is the chargers and giants go oline. Fauntanu and Fuaga are Versatile.  Like you said not sure why you would draft Alt and put him on the right side but this is the best oline draft in forever and all the smoke is about QB and WR so it’s a sneaky possibility for me. The run on oline is going to get wild at some point and it could be as early as 5 but more likely 7

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, freestater said:

I'd prefer Fuaga to Bowers. 

All the Bowers stuff reeks of the Bears trying to trick someone into trading in front of the Jets, imo

[T0mShane]

Just now, Larz said:

Crazy hunch based on basically nothing but I think a possible curve ball is the chargers and giants go oline. Fauntanu and Fuaga are Versatile.  Like you said not sure why you would draft Alt and put him on the right side but this is the best oline draft in forever and all the smoke is about QB and WR so it’s a sneaky possibility for me. The run on oline is going to get wild at some point and it could be as early as 5 but more likely 7

I also think Latham goes a lot higher than is currently being mocked. After Alt, he’s reportedly the most coveted guy. 

[Larz]

If this is actually true, I think the top tier is Alt/Fuaga/Fauntanu/Fashanu. 
 

gotta get one of those 4 if you are burning a top 15 pick imo

[Larz]

5 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I also think Latham goes a lot higher than is currently being mocked. After Alt, he’s reportedly the most coveted guy. 

I’ve been up and down on him. Agree he could be a top player.  I’ve seen opinions he can play LT others say no.  

[Augustiniak]

The wr is the alluring pick but fuaga could save jd’s job more than the wr.

[Larz]

18 minutes ago, freestater said:

I'd prefer Fuaga to Bowers. 

Yeah I’m team Fauntanu but Fuaga is a nice player. Can’t shake the feeling that if we look back in November at this draft and it’s an olineman they will be in the hunt for the division.  

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

[Jet_Engine1]

Brainworms, you say?

 

 

Barring a trade up/down, If the Jets walk away Thursday night with any of the following (in no particular order of preference):

Odunze

Nabers

Fashanu

Bowers

Fuaga

Alt (NFW)

Fauntanu

I'm good with it. At this point, I've learned not to fall in love with or utterly dismiss any particular prospect based on "Reports", hype, or overcaffeinated YT commentary.

 

As long as it ain't a Defensive Player, I'm cool with any of that group. I think they'll all be good adds to the roster, and all will help the team. 

[SickJetFan]

37 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

So, I’ve gotten big into listening to podcasts at work to make the day go by and, predictably, it’s turned my brain into rock candy and I thought I’d share with the group the fetid stew of information gleaned from these more reputable NFL podcasts, in mock draft form, for those whose lives are spent doing more fulfilling, normal things. 
 

1. Bears: Caleb Williams

Pretty much a lock at this point. The smart QB draft guys have all coalesced around Williams being in that Luck/Trevor tier of prospect that they all love. I thought earlier on that Washington would make a push to trade up because Williams is from DC and his dad is a bit of a meddler. But, both Williams and the Bears are speaking openly about the inevitability of this pick. 
 

2. Commanders: Jayden Daniels

A week ago, Vegas had this as a near-certainty to happen, but things have tightened considerably since. Rumors persist that Daniels prefers the Pats, and this week Daniels’ agent indicated Daniels was pissed about flying into DC for what he thought was a one on one interview, which turned into a pack of prospects—including the other top QBs—getting dragged to Top Golf for some whack sociological experiment to see how those prospects responded in that setting. Commanders GM Adam Peters is a Niners progeny, and head coach Dan Quinn is the ultimate vibes guy—does Daniels being a titty-baby scare them off this pick? Daniels responded by flying out to Minnesota for an interview with their higher-ups. Schefter has been pounding away on Daniels being the Commies’ guy, though he has recently suggested that things aren’t as locked up as they were pre-Top Golf. Personally, I would lose my sh*t if somebody made me go to Top Golf.

3. Patriots OR Vikings: Drake Maye

There is some thought that there exists a division at the top ranks of the Pats hierarchy. New Not-GM Eliot Wolf (he hasn’t been given the title officially) and head coach Jerod Mayo are ok with trading out of this pick because the offensive talent is threadbare and it’ll require a multi-year rebuild just to get to average, but Robert Kraft is old and wants to reassert himself into running the team after finally ridding himself of scumbag Bill Belichick, and he wants to kick off the new era by bringing in a fresh-faced new QB. There is some thought that Kraft would prefer JJ McCarthy because of the Michigan QB connection, but Maye is the more physically talented prospect, even though Maye’s game is getting absolutely savaged in most corners of the draft media spectrum. The Vikings are very clearly trying to come up for a QB and they can currently offer #11, #23, and future picks for #3, but there’s some debate as to which QB Minnesota prefers. They were heavily rumored to prefer McCarthy after the Combine (due to some allusions made by GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah), but the Vikings recently hired Josh McCown as their QB coach, and McCown was Maye’s coach in high school (h/t @derp). But if Daniels falls, he becomes the consensus top QB on the board here, at which point do the Pats just stick and take him? Big hinge point here, but the guess is that Kraft will put his foot down for Drake Maye. 
 

4. Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. 

Some thought that the Cardinals want to trade out of this pick (most commonly to the Vikings, for the reasons discussed above), but would they pass on pairing Marvin Harrison Jr with Kyler Murray? GM Monti Ossenfort manipulated several trades last year and looked like a genius in the end, but at some point he’s going to have to win some games. The Cards have a lot of draft capital already, so unless they find a sucker team desperate to come up for McCarthy, the prevailing wisdom is that they just stick and pick their new Larry Fitzgerald. 
 

5. Chargers or Vikings or Giants or Raiders or Denver: ?

Nobody knows what’s going to happen at this spot. It’s widely presumed the Chargers will sell this pick to the highest bidder for JJ McCarthy, but nobody really knows because Jim Harbaugh is a bit of a nutbag who might want to use this pick on JC Latham or whomever he determines is the most macho guy on the board. It’d seem to be a perfect landing spot for Joe Alt, but they already have Rashawn Slater at LT, and it’s unclear that Alt is the type of sh*tkicker that Harbaugh prefers at RT, which could leave an opening for a guy like Latham—whom the OL community loves-loves—or even Fuaga. Chargers could also go receiver here, but Harbaugh is weird about his receivers dating back to his time with the Niners (ended up drafting catastrophic first round bust AJ Jenkins and trading for Anquan Boldin). BUT, Harbaugh has also signaled that the Chargers would be fine moving down, in which case the bidding war for McCarthy breaks out. Giants and Vikings are supposedly hot for McCarthy, but Denver is desperate and the Raiders are the Raiders. The Broncos probably lack the draft capital to get it done, but Payton could throw Pat Surtain on the table if he really wants to go for it. (Broncos insider Ben Albright strongly denies that Surtain will be traded fwiw). 
 

6. Giants: Rome Odunze OR Drake Maye

Daboll is allegedly in love with both Odunze and Nabers, so it could be a preference thing for them. Odunze is a big-bodied receiver the Giants currently lack, and he’s the perfect target vacuum for the Giants scattershot QBs in Daniel Jones and Drew Lock. There is some thought that the Giants could aggressively pursue McCarthy as a means to reset the clock on Daboll’s job security, but he probably doesn’t have that kind of time regardless. That said, what do the Giants do if Drake Maye slides to them? Joe Schoen was in Buffalo when they took a similar prospect in Josh Allen, and Daboll is the coach who’s largely credited with converting Allen from a running back (h/t @Jetsfan80 into an All Pro QB. Hard to see how they pass on that potential. 
 

7. Titans: Joe Alt

This has been the scratch pick all along because the Titans OL has been terrible, and they currently have nothing at LT. In recent days, rumors have surfaced that the Titans are trying to move down because they have the best OL coach in the sport in Bill Callahan and don’t have to draft a ready-made tackle here. Seems unlikely because Alt is Callahan’s platonic ideal of an offensive lineman.

8. Jets or Denver or Bills or Bengals: Malik Nabers OR Brock Bowers

This is the Atlanta pick and they’re all but assured to trade out of it because they’ve picked in the top ten three straight years and they’ve taken offensive skills guys with each of those picks. No more. The Bills are desperate for a receiver and their window is rapidly closing. The Bengals are probably losing Tee Higgins next year (if they don’t trade him this week), and will need a replacement, and they could also use Bowers pretty effectively because Burrow throws to all areas of the field. And the Jets should move up for Nabers, but could they put together a package to move up two spots that’d make it worthwhile for the Falcons to move to ten? If the Falcons don’t see the need to stay at 8 to draft their favorite defensive player, what good does it do them to drop to ten? For what, a fourth and a future third? Eh. From the Jets perspective, you’d want the Colts or Bengals to come up for Bowers or OL help, which could drive Nabers down. 
 

9. Bears: Malik Nabers

This is another pick that’s widely believed to be for sale at a relative discount but, as with the Falcons pick, it’s dependent on someone wanting Bowers or Nabers, which screws the Jets anyway. The Bears have limited draft capital beyond picks 1 and 9, so it’s widely believed they’d drop down for a package of 2024 picks, or they can just stick and pick another weapon for Caleb Williams. They just gave Cole Kmet a bunch of money and signed Gerald Everett in free agency, so TE probably isn’t a need, but they have Keenan Allen on a one-year deal, and little else beyond him and DJ Moore at receiver. Nabers would probably be the pick unless Nabers is too much of a head case for them. 
 

10. Jets: Fuaga

Thank God we beat the Patriots and Commanders, baby. Initial thought—the Jets should go HAM and move up as far as they can for Odunze because Douglas is probably being served his last meal after this draft anyway. But, I think the competition and the price to move up to three or five will be pretty fierce because of all the QB traffic, and Douglas is going to get frozen out by the cost. Odunze is this year’s universally beloved prospect, so it’s highly unlikely he gets past six, which leaves the Jets hoping for a Nabers fall. Problem there is that both the Bears and Falcons are shopping for defense and will happily be shopping picks 8 and 9 in front of the Jets, making ten all but worthless as a trade chip. That said, Fuaga is a great prospect and could be a long-time stalwart right tackle for the Jets and that’s nice. If you wanted to be vindictive about this selection, you could say that we had to use ten on Fuaga because 1. Douglas took Becton and his weed habit because Tristan Wirfs was supposedly RT-only and 2. He sat on his ass and get cucked by Belichick last year, letting the Steelers trade up for Broderick Jones in front of his face. You could further be petty about this pick by suggesting that you’re drafting Fuaga as insurance for two older tackles whom you’re praying stay healthy for ~13 games when you could just go sign Bakhtiari or Donovan Smith on the cheap after the draft to fill the same role, only more capably in the short term. Alternative pick would be Troy Fautanu because of his versatility, but you don’t want to use top ten picks on a guy because he’s versatile, you want him to be dominant. You get “versatile” OL in the fourth. 

[slats]

Still think picks #9 and 10 could be potential trade up spots for a QB. Denver and/or LV could look to jump/block each other for the #5 QB, and JD won’t make any guarantees about the pick until he sees what happens at #9. That could compel one of them to trade to nine to get their guy, knowing that the Jets won’t trade if WR #3 is there. 

[cat999]

Tom, if the draft breaks the way the podcasters predict, Jets would have several options left at OL.  Why wouldn't they trade down given the difference between the prospects  after Alt serms marginal?

[PepPep]

9 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Brainworms, you say?

 

 

Barring a trade up/down, If the Jets walk away Thursday night with any of the following (in no particular order of preference):

Odunze

Nabers

Fashanu

Bowers

Fuaga

Alt (NFW)

Fauntanu

I'm good with it. At this point, I've learned not to fall in love with or utterly dismiss any particular prospect based on "Reports", hype, or overcaffeinated YT commentary.

 

As long as it ain't a Defensive Player, I'm cool with any of that group. I think they'll all be good adds to the roster, and all will help the team. 

Pretty much

45 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

So, I’ve gotten big into listening to podcasts at work to make the day go by and, predictably, it’s turned my brain into rock candy and I thought I’d share with the group the fetid stew of information gleaned from these more reputable NFL podcasts, in mock draft form, for those whose lives are spent doing more fulfilling, normal things. 
 

1. Bears: Caleb Williams

2. Commanders: Jayden Daniels

3. Patriots OR Vikings: Drake Maye

4. Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr.  

5. Chargers or Vikings or Giants or Raiders or Denver: ?

6. Giants: Rome Odunze OR Drake Maye

7. Titans: Joe Alt

8. Jets or Denver or Bills or Bengals: Malik Nabers OR Brock Bowers

9. Bears: Malik Nabers

10. Jets: Fuaga

I'm sticking with:

CHI- Caleb

WAS- Daniels

NE- Maye

ARI- MHJ

LAC- Nabers

NYG- Odunze

Tenn- Alt

ATL- Turner

CHI- Trade w/Minn for McCarthy

NYJ- Fashanu

*CHI- J.Verse

[Integrity28]

It’s amazing to see this many words to say the same things we see daily from all the other whackadoos who think they warrant a thread of their own. 

[Augustiniak]

Just now, slats said:

Still think picks #9 and 10 could be potential trade up spots for a QB. Denver and/or LV could look to jump/block each other for the #5 QB, and JD won’t make any guarantees about the pick until he sees what happens at #9. That could compel one of them to trade to nine to get their guy, knowing that the Jets won’t trade if WR #3 is there. 

It’s also possible minny can’t trade up to the top 7 and is in competition with the raiders, broncos and even another team to get to 8 or 9.  

[freestater]

23 minutes ago, Larz said:

Yeah I’m team Fauntanu but Fuaga is a nice player. Can’t shake the feeling that if we look back in November at this draft and it’s an olineman they will be in the hunt for the division.  

Same. Still lots of lets-cross-our-fingers on the line. Heavily improved no doubt, but many concerns especially availability. Iirc, I believe they said they're steering away from zone block scheme, and I think they're a couple years late to do so, so that's hopefully a help keeping these guys in games. Even if they do well, they're not staying for long. We'll need to replace a couple starters in 365 days anyways. 

[T0mShane]

7 minutes ago, slats said:

Still think picks #9 and 10 could be potential trade up spots for a QB. Denver and/or LV could look to jump/block each other for the #5 QB, and JD won’t make any guarantees about the pick until he sees what happens at #9. That could compel one of them to trade to nine to get their guy, knowing that the Jets won’t trade if WR #3 is there. 

I know Denver and the Raiders are presumably desperate for QB help, but that would be such an extreme leap of faith to come up for either Penix or Nix. 

[T0mShane]

9 minutes ago, cat999 said:

Tom, if the draft breaks the way the podcasters predict, Jets would have several options left at OL.  Why wouldn't they trade down given the difference between the prospects  after Alt serms marginal?

Who would other teams be coming up for? Bowers? Fashanu? 

[32EBoozer]

57 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

but nobody really knows because Jim Harbaugh is a bit of a nutbag who might want to use this pick on JC Latham or whomever he determines is the most macho guy on the board

[FootballLove]

I examined my Crystal Balls this morning in the shower:

1.10 Tee Higgins WR, Cincinnati

1.18 (from Cinci) Best T/G/C available

2.10 Aaron Rodgers QB, GB

3.10 to Cincinnati

3.18 (from Cinci) Someone good, probably Safety, LB, or D-Tackle.

4.10 Some variation of 3.18

.

.

.

7.32 Future HOF QB (but of course)!

This all came from my LCB (Left Crystal Ball). My RCB was still cloudy, so I might have an update later on....😎

[slats]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

I know Denver and the Raiders are presumably desperate for QB help, but that would be such an extreme leap of faith to come up for either Penix or Nix. 

I try not to pretend that I know much more than I actually do, but stuff I’m reading has Penix going top half of the round and Nix dropping out entirely. Denver and Vegas being division rivals adds a little juice if they both see Penix as a guy they’d like to take this year. Hurts a lot more when you not only miss your guy, but your rival got him. 

[cat999]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

Who would other teams be coming up for? Bowers? Fashanu? 

Bowers for sure, but other teams might have a clear preference for one of the OL, for example Latham who some teams seem to really like

[Integrity28]

This is a deep OL draft, not just at tackle, but center and there are some stellar guard prospects as well. The nice thing with them is they can be gotten mid-draft.

So, if we’re really in the hunt for depth/security along the OL, then to me it makes a helluva lot more sense to draft a versatile stud late first round or after - and get back a 2nd to spend on WR.

Our team improves more with a Guyton + WR (McConkey? Legette?) than it does with just Fuaga, no?

 

[Alka]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

So, I’ve gotten big into listening to podcasts at work to make the day go by and, predictably, it’s turned my brain into rock candy and I thought I’d share with the group the fetid stew of information gleaned from these more reputable NFL podcasts, in mock draft form, for those whose lives are spent doing more fulfilling, normal things. 
 

1. Bears: Caleb Williams

Pretty much a lock at this point. The smart QB draft guys have all coalesced around Williams being in that Luck/Trevor tier of prospect that they all love. I thought earlier on that Washington would make a push to trade up because Williams is from DC and his dad is a bit of a meddler. But, both Williams and the Bears are speaking openly about the inevitability of this pick. 
 

2. Commanders: Jayden Daniels

A week ago, Vegas had this as a near-certainty to happen, but things have tightened considerably since. Rumors persist that Daniels prefers the Pats, and this week Daniels’ agent indicated Daniels was pissed about flying into DC for what he thought was a one on one interview, which turned into a pack of prospects—including the other top QBs—getting dragged to Top Golf for some whack sociological experiment to see how those prospects responded in that setting. Commanders GM Adam Peters is a Niners progeny, and head coach Dan Quinn is the ultimate vibes guy—does Daniels being a titty-baby scare them off this pick? Daniels responded by flying out to Minnesota for an interview with their higher-ups. Schefter has been pounding away on Daniels being the Commies’ guy, though he has recently suggested that things aren’t as locked up as they were pre-Top Golf. Personally, I would lose my sh*t if somebody made me go to Top Golf.

3. Patriots OR Vikings: Drake Maye

There is some thought that there exists a division at the top ranks of the Pats hierarchy. New Not-GM Eliot Wolf (he hasn’t been given the title officially) and head coach Jerod Mayo are ok with trading out of this pick because the offensive talent is threadbare and it’ll require a multi-year rebuild just to get to average, but Robert Kraft is old and wants to reassert himself into running the team after finally ridding himself of scumbag Bill Belichick, and he wants to kick off the new era by bringing in a fresh-faced new QB. There is some thought that Kraft would prefer JJ McCarthy because of the Michigan QB connection, but Maye is the more physically talented prospect, even though Maye’s game is getting absolutely savaged in most corners of the draft media spectrum. The Vikings are very clearly trying to come up for a QB and they can currently offer #11, #23, and future picks for #3, but there’s some debate as to which QB Minnesota prefers. They were heavily rumored to prefer McCarthy after the Combine (due to some allusions made by GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah), but the Vikings recently hired Josh McCown as their QB coach, and McCown was Maye’s coach in high school (h/t @derp). But if Daniels falls, he becomes the consensus top QB on the board here, at which point do the Pats just stick and take him? Big hinge point here, but the guess is that Kraft will put his foot down for Drake Maye. 
 

4. Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. 

Some thought that the Cardinals want to trade out of this pick (most commonly to the Vikings, for the reasons discussed above), but would they pass on pairing Marvin Harrison Jr with Kyler Murray? GM Monti Ossenfort manipulated several trades last year and looked like a genius in the end, but at some point he’s going to have to win some games. The Cards have a lot of draft capital already, so unless they find a sucker team desperate to come up for McCarthy, the prevailing wisdom is that they just stick and pick their new Larry Fitzgerald. 
 

5. Chargers or Vikings or Giants or Raiders or Denver: ?

Nobody knows what’s going to happen at this spot. It’s widely presumed the Chargers will sell this pick to the highest bidder for JJ McCarthy, but nobody really knows because Jim Harbaugh is a bit of a nutbag who might want to use this pick on JC Latham or whomever he determines is the most macho guy on the board. It’d seem to be a perfect landing spot for Joe Alt, but they already have Rashawn Slater at LT, and it’s unclear that Alt is the type of sh*tkicker that Harbaugh prefers at RT, which could leave an opening for a guy like Latham—whom the OL community loves-loves—or even Fuaga. Chargers could also go receiver here, but Harbaugh is weird about his receivers dating back to his time with the Niners (ended up drafting catastrophic first round bust AJ Jenkins and trading for Anquan Boldin). BUT, Harbaugh has also signaled that the Chargers would be fine moving down, in which case the bidding war for McCarthy breaks out. Giants and Vikings are supposedly hot for McCarthy, but Denver is desperate and the Raiders are the Raiders. The Broncos probably lack the draft capital to get it done, but Payton could throw Pat Surtain on the table if he really wants to go for it. (Broncos insider Ben Albright strongly denies that Surtain will be traded fwiw). 
 

6. Giants: Rome Odunze OR Drake Maye

Daboll is allegedly in love with both Odunze and Nabers, so it could be a preference thing for them. Odunze is a big-bodied receiver the Giants currently lack, and he’s the perfect target vacuum for the Giants scattershot QBs in Daniel Jones and Drew Lock. There is some thought that the Giants could aggressively pursue McCarthy as a means to reset the clock on Daboll’s job security, but he probably doesn’t have that kind of time regardless. That said, what do the Giants do if Drake Maye slides to them? Joe Schoen was in Buffalo when they took a similar prospect in Josh Allen, and Daboll is the coach who’s largely credited with converting Allen from a running back (h/t @Jetsfan80 into an All Pro QB. Hard to see how they pass on that potential. 
 

7. Titans: Joe Alt

This has been the scratch pick all along because the Titans OL has been terrible, and they currently have nothing at LT. In recent days, rumors have surfaced that the Titans are trying to move down because they have the best OL coach in the sport in Bill Callahan and don’t have to draft a ready-made tackle here. Seems unlikely because Alt is Callahan’s platonic ideal of an offensive lineman.

8. Jets or Denver or Bills or Bengals: Malik Nabers OR Brock Bowers

This is the Atlanta pick and they’re all but assured to trade out of it because they’ve picked in the top ten three straight years and they’ve taken offensive skills guys with each of those picks. No more. The Bills are desperate for a receiver and their window is rapidly closing. The Bengals are probably losing Tee Higgins next year (if they don’t trade him this week), and will need a replacement, and they could also use Bowers pretty effectively because Burrow throws to all areas of the field. And the Jets should move up for Nabers, but could they put together a package to move up two spots that’d make it worthwhile for the Falcons to move to ten? If the Falcons don’t see the need to stay at 8 to draft their favorite defensive player, what good does it do them to drop to ten? For what, a fourth and a future third? Eh. From the Jets perspective, you’d want the Colts or Bengals to come up for Bowers or OL help, which could drive Nabers down. 
 

9. Bears: Malik Nabers

This is another pick that’s widely believed to be for sale at a relative discount but, as with the Falcons pick, it’s dependent on someone wanting Bowers or Nabers, which screws the Jets anyway. The Bears have limited draft capital beyond picks 1 and 9, so it’s widely believed they’d drop down for a package of 2024 picks, or they can just stick and pick another weapon for Caleb Williams. They just gave Cole Kmet a bunch of money and signed Gerald Everett in free agency, so TE probably isn’t a need, but they have Keenan Allen on a one-year deal, and little else beyond him and DJ Moore at receiver. Nabers would probably be the pick unless Nabers is too much of a head case for them. 
 

10. Jets: Fuaga

Thank God we beat the Patriots and Commanders, baby. Initial thought—the Jets should go HAM and move up as far as they can for Odunze because Douglas is probably being served his last meal after this draft anyway. But, I think the competition and the price to move up to three or five will be pretty fierce because of all the QB traffic, and Douglas is going to get frozen out by the cost. Odunze is this year’s universally beloved prospect, so it’s highly unlikely he gets past six, which leaves the Jets hoping for a Nabers fall. Problem there is that both the Bears and Falcons are shopping for defense and will happily be shopping picks 8 and 9 in front of the Jets, making ten all but worthless as a trade chip. That said, Fuaga is a great prospect and could be a long-time stalwart right tackle for the Jets and that’s nice. If you wanted to be vindictive about this selection, you could say that we had to use ten on Fuaga because 1. Douglas took Becton and his weed habit because Tristan Wirfs was supposedly RT-only and 2. He sat on his ass and get cucked by Belichick last year, letting the Steelers trade up for Broderick Jones in front of his face. You could further be petty about this pick by suggesting that you’re drafting Fuaga as insurance for two older tackles whom you’re praying stay healthy for ~13 games when you could just go sign Bakhtiari or Donovan Smith on the cheap after the draft to fill the same role, only more capably in the short term. Alternative pick would be Troy Fautanu because of his versatility, but you don’t want to use top ten picks on a guy because he’s versatile, you want him to be dominant. You get “versatile” OL in the fourth. 

I appreciate the evaluation, but the only area I disagree with is the Bears at #9.  After they get their QB, they are in serious need of an elite edge rusher or defensive lineman.  If this is the first defensive pick of the draft at #9, I feel that the Bears will have the pick of the liter for the defense, and I can't imagine that they would pass up the opportunity to make the pick right here at #9.  Trading down and getting more picks is always great, but to have the best QB and the best defensive lineman or edge rusher in the top 10 is something I would not pass on.

[section314]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

So, I’ve gotten big into listening to podcasts at work to make the day go by and, predictably, it’s turned my brain into rock candy and I thought I’d share with the group the fetid stew of information gleaned from these more reputable NFL podcasts, in mock draft form, for those whose lives are spent doing more fulfilling, normal things. 
 

1. Bears: Caleb Williams

Pretty much a lock at this point. The smart QB draft guys have all coalesced around Williams being in that Luck/Trevor tier of prospect that they all love. I thought earlier on that Washington would make a push to trade up because Williams is from DC and his dad is a bit of a meddler. But, both Williams and the Bears are speaking openly about the inevitability of this pick. 
 

2. Commanders: Jayden Daniels

A week ago, Vegas had this as a near-certainty to happen, but things have tightened considerably since. Rumors persist that Daniels prefers the Pats, and this week Daniels’ agent indicated Daniels was pissed about flying into DC for what he thought was a one on one interview, which turned into a pack of prospects—including the other top QBs—getting dragged to Top Golf for some whack sociological experiment to see how those prospects responded in that setting. Commanders GM Adam Peters is a Niners progeny, and head coach Dan Quinn is the ultimate vibes guy—does Daniels being a titty-baby scare them off this pick? Daniels responded by flying out to Minnesota for an interview with their higher-ups. Schefter has been pounding away on Daniels being the Commies’ guy, though he has recently suggested that things aren’t as locked up as they were pre-Top Golf. Personally, I would lose my sh*t if somebody made me go to Top Golf.

3. Patriots OR Vikings: Drake Maye

There is some thought that there exists a division at the top ranks of the Pats hierarchy. New Not-GM Eliot Wolf (he hasn’t been given the title officially) and head coach Jerod Mayo are ok with trading out of this pick because the offensive talent is threadbare and it’ll require a multi-year rebuild just to get to average, but Robert Kraft is old and wants to reassert himself into running the team after finally ridding himself of scumbag Bill Belichick, and he wants to kick off the new era by bringing in a fresh-faced new QB. There is some thought that Kraft would prefer JJ McCarthy because of the Michigan QB connection, but Maye is the more physically talented prospect, even though Maye’s game is getting absolutely savaged in most corners of the draft media spectrum. The Vikings are very clearly trying to come up for a QB and they can currently offer #11, #23, and future picks for #3, but there’s some debate as to which QB Minnesota prefers. They were heavily rumored to prefer McCarthy after the Combine (due to some allusions made by GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah), but the Vikings recently hired Josh McCown as their QB coach, and McCown was Maye’s coach in high school (h/t @derp). But if Daniels falls, he becomes the consensus top QB on the board here, at which point do the Pats just stick and take him? Big hinge point here, but the guess is that Kraft will put his foot down for Drake Maye. 
 

4. Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. 

Some thought that the Cardinals want to trade out of this pick (most commonly to the Vikings, for the reasons discussed above), but would they pass on pairing Marvin Harrison Jr with Kyler Murray? GM Monti Ossenfort manipulated several trades last year and looked like a genius in the end, but at some point he’s going to have to win some games. The Cards have a lot of draft capital already, so unless they find a sucker team desperate to come up for McCarthy, the prevailing wisdom is that they just stick and pick their new Larry Fitzgerald. 
 

5. Chargers or Vikings or Giants or Raiders or Denver: ?

Nobody knows what’s going to happen at this spot. It’s widely presumed the Chargers will sell this pick to the highest bidder for JJ McCarthy, but nobody really knows because Jim Harbaugh is a bit of a nutbag who might want to use this pick on JC Latham or whomever he determines is the most macho guy on the board. It’d seem to be a perfect landing spot for Joe Alt, but they already have Rashawn Slater at LT, and it’s unclear that Alt is the type of sh*tkicker that Harbaugh prefers at RT, which could leave an opening for a guy like Latham—whom the OL community loves-loves—or even Fuaga. Chargers could also go receiver here, but Harbaugh is weird about his receivers dating back to his time with the Niners (ended up drafting catastrophic first round bust AJ Jenkins and trading for Anquan Boldin). BUT, Harbaugh has also signaled that the Chargers would be fine moving down, in which case the bidding war for McCarthy breaks out. Giants and Vikings are supposedly hot for McCarthy, but Denver is desperate and the Raiders are the Raiders. The Broncos probably lack the draft capital to get it done, but Payton could throw Pat Surtain on the table if he really wants to go for it. (Broncos insider Ben Albright strongly denies that Surtain will be traded fwiw). 
 

6. Giants: Rome Odunze OR Drake Maye

Daboll is allegedly in love with both Odunze and Nabers, so it could be a preference thing for them. Odunze is a big-bodied receiver the Giants currently lack, and he’s the perfect target vacuum for the Giants scattershot QBs in Daniel Jones and Drew Lock. There is some thought that the Giants could aggressively pursue McCarthy as a means to reset the clock on Daboll’s job security, but he probably doesn’t have that kind of time regardless. That said, what do the Giants do if Drake Maye slides to them? Joe Schoen was in Buffalo when they took a similar prospect in Josh Allen, and Daboll is the coach who’s largely credited with converting Allen from a running back (h/t @Jetsfan80 into an All Pro QB. Hard to see how they pass on that potential. 
 

7. Titans: Joe Alt

This has been the scratch pick all along because the Titans OL has been terrible, and they currently have nothing at LT. In recent days, rumors have surfaced that the Titans are trying to move down because they have the best OL coach in the sport in Bill Callahan and don’t have to draft a ready-made tackle here. Seems unlikely because Alt is Callahan’s platonic ideal of an offensive lineman.

8. Jets or Denver or Bills or Bengals: Malik Nabers OR Brock Bowers

This is the Atlanta pick and they’re all but assured to trade out of it because they’ve picked in the top ten three straight years and they’ve taken offensive skills guys with each of those picks. No more. The Bills are desperate for a receiver and their window is rapidly closing. The Bengals are probably losing Tee Higgins next year (if they don’t trade him this week), and will need a replacement, and they could also use Bowers pretty effectively because Burrow throws to all areas of the field. And the Jets should move up for Nabers, but could they put together a package to move up two spots that’d make it worthwhile for the Falcons to move to ten? If the Falcons don’t see the need to stay at 8 to draft their favorite defensive player, what good does it do them to drop to ten? For what, a fourth and a future third? Eh. From the Jets perspective, you’d want the Colts or Bengals to come up for Bowers or OL help, which could drive Nabers down. 
 

9. Bears: Malik Nabers

This is another pick that’s widely believed to be for sale at a relative discount but, as with the Falcons pick, it’s dependent on someone wanting Bowers or Nabers, which screws the Jets anyway. The Bears have limited draft capital beyond picks 1 and 9, so it’s widely believed they’d drop down for a package of 2024 picks, or they can just stick and pick another weapon for Caleb Williams. They just gave Cole Kmet a bunch of money and signed Gerald Everett in free agency, so TE probably isn’t a need, but they have Keenan Allen on a one-year deal, and little else beyond him and DJ Moore at receiver. Nabers would probably be the pick unless Nabers is too much of a head case for them. 
 

10. Jets: Fuaga

Thank God we beat the Patriots and Commanders, baby. Initial thought—the Jets should go HAM and move up as far as they can for Odunze because Douglas is probably being served his last meal after this draft anyway. But, I think the competition and the price to move up to three or five will be pretty fierce because of all the QB traffic, and Douglas is going to get frozen out by the cost. Odunze is this year’s universally beloved prospect, so it’s highly unlikely he gets past six, which leaves the Jets hoping for a Nabers fall. Problem there is that both the Bears and Falcons are shopping for defense and will happily be shopping picks 8 and 9 in front of the Jets, making ten all but worthless as a trade chip. That said, Fuaga is a great prospect and could be a long-time stalwart right tackle for the Jets and that’s nice. If you wanted to be vindictive about this selection, you could say that we had to use ten on Fuaga because 1. Douglas took Becton and his weed habit because Tristan Wirfs was supposedly RT-only and 2. He sat on his ass and get cucked by Belichick last year, letting the Steelers trade up for Broderick Jones in front of his face. You could further be petty about this pick by suggesting that you’re drafting Fuaga as insurance for two older tackles whom you’re praying stay healthy for ~13 games when you could just go sign Bakhtiari or Donovan Smith on the cheap after the draft to fill the same role, only more capably in the short term. Alternative pick would be Troy Fautanu because of his versatility, but you don’t want to use top ten picks on a guy because he’s versatile, you want him to be dominant. You get “versatile” OL in the fourth. 

Great work. I think, that when all is said and done, Arizona, Chargers, Giants, Titans and Falcons stay put and pick. As a guy who fervently wants a trade down, as I said in your thread yesterday, the Bears at 9 are the biggest obstacle for my plan. They will only have 3 picks left at this point, so trade is very likely. 

[T0mShane]

31 minutes ago, slats said:

I try not to pretend that I know much more than I actually do, but stuff I’m reading has Penix going top half of the round and Nix dropping out entirely. Denver and Vegas being division rivals adds a little juice if they both see Penix as a guy they’d like to take this year. Hurts a lot more when you not only miss your guy, but your rival got him. 

I’ve seen Nix connected to the Broncos because he presumably has similar characteristics to Brees(?) but reportedly the post-season process hasn’t been great for him, and he threw poorly at the Senior Bowl. Penix to the Raiders is interesting because the Raiders, as always, are a weird team and Pierce supposedly likes him. I guess I can see it. All it takes is one team to throw caution to the wind, I guess. 

[T0mShane]

23 minutes ago, Alka said:

I appreciate the evaluation, but the only area I disagree with is the Bears at #9.  After they get their QB, they are in serious need of an elite edge rusher or defensive lineman.  If this is the first defensive pick of the draft at #9, I feel that the Bears will have the pick of the liter for the defense, and I can't imagine that they would pass up the opportunity to make the pick right here at #9.  Trading down and getting more picks is always great, but to have the best QB and the best defensive lineman or edge rusher in the top 10 is something I would not pass on.

The thought behind Chicago trading out is that they only have like two picks outside of the first round. Agreed they need a pass rusher, but none of the EDGE prospects this year are considered super-elite types. Dallas Turner is the presumed top guy, but that’s based on a lot of projection. If the Bears are committed to EDGE, dumping out and getting Verse or Latu might be just as good. 

[BurntDice]

100% agree with moving up. This year is do or die. Wrs tend to play very well from day 1 so give me Nabers or MHJ. Trade next years 1st or 2nd doesn’t make a difference to me 

[Phillyjet]

Looks like the draft is 11-12 players deep at the elite positions, particularly when you factor in the run on QBs.

4 QBs

3 WRs

1 TE

2 OTs

1 DE

I agree that the Bowers to the Jets talk feels like a smokescreen.  They are trying to coax someone into trading up so one of the OTs or WRs fall to them.  The Jets will likely have pick of the 2nd OT off the board, and they should jump on that.  Take a WR in the third round.  I think it's Fuaga or Fautanu.  If Alt drops to 8 or 9, may be interesting to see if Jets try to trade up.

[section314]

53 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Who would other teams be coming up for? Bowers? Fashanu? 

Don’t discount one of the top 2 corners. The Eagles season was destroyed because they had a horrific secondary.

[LionelRichie]

55 minutes ago, slats said:

Still think picks #9 and 10 could be potential trade up spots for a QB. Denver and/or LV could look to jump/block each other for the #5 QB, and JD won’t make any guarantees about the pick until he sees what happens at #9. That could compel one of them to trade to nine to get their guy, knowing that the Jets won’t trade if WR #3 is there. 

JD loves to get too cute on the trade down so I could see ‘value’ and getting stuck with another McDonald type reach for a player who would be available later. 
 

I still think JD is on tilt and knows this is his last chance and I fully expect a move up for one of the big 3 wr.  

[jamesr]

44 minutes ago, Alka said:

I appreciate the evaluation, but the only area I disagree with is the Bears at #9.  After they get their QB, they are in serious need of an elite edge rusher or defensive lineman.  If this is the first defensive pick of the draft at #9, I feel that the Bears will have the pick of the liter for the defense, and I can't imagine that they would pass up the opportunity to make the pick right here at #9.  Trading down and getting more picks is always great, but to have the best QB and the best defensive lineman or edge rusher in the top 10 is something I would not pass on.

Worked pretty well for Houston last year.   

[Alka]

8 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The thought behind Chicago trading out is that they only have like two picks outside of the first round. Agreed they need a pass rusher, but none of the EDGE prospects this year are considered super-elite types. Dallas Turner is the presumed top guy, but that’s based on a lot of projection. If the Bears are committed to EDGE, dumping out and getting Verse or Latu might be just as good. 

I agree.  It's all in the eye of the beholder, and how the Bears evaluate the differences of EDGE on their board.  

It's funny to me, but the Jets either JD or Saleh said that in the draft where they drafted Johnson at #26, they would have drafted Johnson at #10 if Wilson was already taken by then.  That was their evaluation.  In my mind, Johnson was taken in the perfect spot for his abilities.  10 would have been a disappointment for me.

It's hard to know what the Bears are thinking, but to have the choice of the best defensive player at #9 in the entire draft is an interesting thought.   Unless the best player is not much better than 2 other players at the same position, like you suggest.   We will see.