Jets favored in 14/17 games

[JetPotato]

1 hour ago, Rhg1084 said:

Jets defense is set to feast on these bums

QUICK!

Place your bets now before people realize those QBs are going to be facing Jordan Travis.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

Can copy and paste that last sentence every May... 

Even with the loftiest hopes, every May we aren't favored to win 14 games.

I'll grant you this is a betting site with lines that move based on the action (or anticipated action, in this case) - which often does skew things to the Jets before reality sets in - rather than pure outcome predictions. Still, it's draftkings & not just a single, casual, homer Jets fan's prediction.

Will be interesting to see how much the lines move, but beyond it being interesting it of course means nothing. 

I don't have a draftkings account, but put it this way: the best bet I can think of is that the opening over-under on the 2024 Jets season isn't going to be 14. If it is I'd finally sign up for an account.  

[Augustiniak]

22 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Even with the loftiest hopes, every May we aren't favored to win 14 games.

I'll grant you this is a betting site with lines that move based on the action (or anticipated action, in this case) - which often does skew things to the Jets before reality sets in - rather than pure outcome predictions. Still, it's draftkings & not just a single, casual, homer Jets fan's prediction.

Will be interesting to see how much the lines move, but beyond it being interesting it of course means nothing. 

I don't have a draftkings account, but put it this way: the best bet I can think of is that the opening over-under on the 2024 Jets season isn't going to be 14. If it is I'd finally sign up for an account.  

I’m wondering which key prime time game will be the nfl starting debut for jordan travis. 

[Barry McCockinner]

what's will all the douchey comments about Jordan Travis starting? You guys rooting for our QB's to get injured or what?

some of y'all are insufferable with the constant negativity. give it a rest.

[Warfish]

I'm thinking about getting " If they can stay healthy..." tattoo'd across my back, gangland prison style.

What do yall think?  Too much?  

[Ghost420]

Anyone have a presale code

[Larz]

Vegas and the NFL and outside observers:

The jets are a loaded team that should be fun to watch 

Jets fans:

[slimjasi]

14 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

what's will all the douchey comments about Jordan Travis starting? You guys rooting for our QB's to get injured or what?

some of y'all are insufferable with the constant negativity. give it a rest.

Yea, I get being negative about the Jets, but this place has gotten cartoonish

It's decreased my post count lately here for sure 

 

[jamesr]

2 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

Jets defense is set to feast on these bums

I believe the official term is "embarrass them".  

[Warfish]

6 minutes ago, Larz said:

Vegas and the NFL and outside observers:

The jets are a loaded team that should be fun to watch 

Jets fans:

Ahh look, Larz is fake mad yet again because other fans are having fun with Vegas odds in May.

Is there ever a day where you're not fake mad about your fellow fans Larz?  

[jvill 51]

1 hour ago, Integrity28 said:

Will be completely reset by week3.

You’re right. We’ll be favored to win 17/17 games by then.

[JustInFudge]

 

[rex-n-effect]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

When did these offseason crowning happen?  One in the last 13?

When we went into the offseason undefeated in 2024

[The Crusher]

41 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I’m wondering which key prime time game will be the nfl starting debut for jordan travis. 

I’d like to think he will get some mop up duty  in garbage time first. Please? 

[Jet Nut]

7 hours ago, rex-n-effect said:

When we went into the offseason undefeated in 2024

And this is it?  After all the times we’ve been picked to suck?  One time?  

Like we know it wouldn’t have been as good as predicted if not for one injury a year ago?

[bicketybam]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

I’m wondering which key prime time game will be the nfl starting debut for jordan travis. 

Enough of this sh*t. We all get you hate Rodgers but he's our QB. Go root for another team until he's gone if you are this much triggered. I guarantee you are one of those miserable Jets fans rooting for a Rodgers injury.

[bicketybam]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

what's will all the douchey comments about Jordan Travis starting? You guys rooting for our QB's to get injured or what?

some of y'all are insufferable with the constant negativity. give it a rest.

I truly believe that some of these clowns let their hate of Rodgers' perceived political stances get in the way of the fact that he is our QB. I bet the same ******* idiots wanted us to sign Tyreek Hill.

[bicketybam]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

I'm thinking about getting " If they can stay healthy..." tattoo'd across my back, gangland prison style.

What do yall think?  Too much?  

I think there isn't nearly enough room unless they use an 8 font.

[bicketybam]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Ahh look, Larz is fake mad yet again because other fans are having fun with Vegas odds in May.

Is there ever a day where you're not fake mad about your fellow fans Larz?  

[GreenFish]

4 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

Jets defense is set to feast on these bums

The Jets drafted a 3rd of those guys. We’re a QB factory.

[Augustiniak]

1 hour ago, bicketybam said:

Enough of this sh*t. We all get you hate Rodgers but he's our QB. Go root for another team until he's gone if you are this much triggered. I guarantee you are one of those miserable Jets fans rooting for a Rodgers injury.

That’s just how we roll, it has nothing to do with rodgers.  The jets are just unlucky.  

[bicketybam]

3 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

That’s just how we roll, it has nothing to do with rodgers.  The jets are just unlucky.  

Just stop and own it. I hate that passive aggressive crap some people pull.

[slimjasi]

23 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

The Jets drafted a 3rd of those guys. We’re a QB factory.

I count 3 names? 

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

Just stop and own it. I hate that passive aggressive crap some people pull.

I think it’s better than the pure aggressive behavior you exhibit here.  This is supposed to be a fun gathering of jet fans.  Every time you comment on me you’re berating me for something.  There’s no place for bullies here. You’re a smart poster but please stop the bullying. 

[bicketybam]

13 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I think it’s better than the pure aggressive behavior you exhibit here.  This is supposed to be a fun gathering of jet fans.  Every time you comment on me you’re berating me for something.  There’s no place for bullies here. You’re a smart poster but please stop the bullying. 

#safespace

[doitny]

8 hours ago, Larz said:

 

loaded

Joe Douglas sucks. cant wait for him to get fired by the end of the season. (sarcasm) lol

[Jet Nut]

5 hours ago, GreenFish said:

The Jets drafted a 3rd of those guys. We’re a QB factory.

That’s rough math wherever you went to school. 

[Maxman]

Love this!!!

[bitonti]

On 5/16/2024 at 11:43 AM, Sperm Edwards said:

Even with the loftiest hopes, every May we aren't favored to win 14 games.

I'll grant you this is a betting site with lines that move based on the action (or anticipated action, in this case) - which often does skew things to the Jets before reality sets in - rather than pure outcome predictions. Still, it's draftkings & not just a single, casual, homer Jets fan's prediction.

Will be interesting to see how much the lines move, but beyond it being interesting it of course means nothing. 

I don't have a draftkings account, but put it this way: the best bet I can think of is that the opening over-under on the 2024 Jets season isn't going to be 14. If it is I'd finally sign up for an account.  

The odds exist we all can bet Jets over 9.5 on fd or dk today 

Dk is offering a better price fwiw 

Futures are getting the money in early before there's any information. Whatever information exists the casinos have more than us 

My money waits for the weekly injury report 

And side note a fan base in the NY tri state area leaks dumb money. There was a survey from like gamblers dot com where NYJ fans were 30th and NYG were 32nd in "least astute" which sounds like an insult but it's really about sports book profit 

That's how the Jets can be favored in 14 games, the season is 9.5 and it all feels like a trap 

 

[bicketybam]

30 minutes ago, bitonti said:

The odds exist we all can bet Jets over 9.5 on fd or dk today 

Dk is offering a better price fwiw 

Futures are getting the money in early before there's any information. Whatever information exists the casinos have more than us 

My money waits for the weekly injury report 

And side note a fan base in the NY tri state area leaks dumb money. There was a survey from like gamblers dot com where NYJ fans were 30th and NYG were 32nd in "least astute" which sounds like an insult but it's really about sports book profit 

That's how the Jets can be favored in 14 games, the season is 9.5 and it all feels like a trap 

 

I'm no statistician but hear me out. 

In 2023, home favorites outright won 69.8% of their games. Away favorites won 64.1% of their games. 

Jets are home favorites in 8 games. At 69.8% win rate, that's 5.581 wins.

Jets are away favorites in 6 games. At a 64.1% win rate that's 3.845 wins. 

Add those two together and you get 9.426 wins. The o/u is 9.5. Seems about right to me considering the favored team last season only won 67.6% of the time!

[Jet_Engine1]

On 5/16/2024 at 10:42 AM, Darnold's Forehead said:

NFL jumping on the Jets bandwagon rn
 

 

[Jet_Engine1]

12 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

I'm no statistician but hear me out. 

In 2023, home favorites outright won 69.8% of their games. Away favorites won 64.1% of their games. 

Jets are home favorites in 8 games. At 69.8% win rate, that's 5.581 wins.

Jets are away favorites in 6 games. At a 64.1% win rate that's 3.845 wins. 

Add those two together and you get 9.426 wins. The o/u is 9.5. Seems about right to me considering the favored team last season only won 67.6% of the time!

Cynthia Freuland said the exact same thing but looked WAY better saying it... 

[bicketybam]

16 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Cynthia Freuland said the exact same thing but looked WAY better saying it... 

To be fair, I look great in a thong.

[Jetsfan80]

Of those 14 we're favored in, we're only favored by >3 points in 7 of them.  

Just trying to help out those who want to be debbie downers about this, lol.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

The odds exist we all can bet Jets over 9.5 on fd or dk today 

Dk is offering a better price fwiw 

Futures are getting the money in early before there's any information. Whatever information exists the casinos have more than us 

My money waits for the weekly injury report 

And side note a fan base in the NY tri state area leaks dumb money. There was a survey from like gamblers dot com where NYJ fans were 30th and NYG were 32nd in "least astute" which sounds like an insult but it's really about sports book profit 

That's how the Jets can be favored in 14 games, the season is 9.5 and it all feels like a trap 

 

lmao

It's quite simple -- they make the odds to get 50% of the money taking each side. That may lead to more individual games getting skewed a bit, but moving a point spread even 2-3 points (over true expected results) per instance, but it isn't going to move the betting nearly as much as moving the expected win total by 5 games. 

In theory, if the true expected-outcome spreads are dead-on, and they get skewed in favor of the Jets' fans expected bidding more than their opponents, then you should be betting against the Jets each week, and even if they win you'd still theoretically win more than you lose, but even now with 17 games that may not be a large enough sample size to rely upon long-term data -- even crap teams can get lucky & draw lots of key opponent injuries & they win more than they probably would have been expected to if it was full strength Jets vs full strength opponents (the 2015 Jets come to mind). 

Or far simpler, just look up their recent records against the spreads:

I don't know what lines they're using, or if it's an aggregate of a few since sometimes there's a 0.5 or even 1 point disparity, but the Jets were allegedly 6-10-1 against the spread last year. I don't know what their expected win total was by adding up games they were favorites or dogs each week (I don't know if they were underdogs on 10 games, 8 games, 12 games, etc.), independent of the preseason win total O/U line.