JetPotato Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 1 hour ago, Rhg1084 said: Jets defense is set to feast on these bums QUICK! Place your bets now before people realize those QBs are going to be facing Jordan Travis. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 1 hour ago, Columbia Jet Fan said: Can copy and paste that last sentence every May... Even with the loftiest hopes, every May we aren't favored to win 14 games. I'll grant you this is a betting site with lines that move based on the action (or anticipated action, in this case) - which often does skew things to the Jets before reality sets in - rather than pure outcome predictions. Still, it's draftkings & not just a single, casual, homer Jets fan's prediction. Will be interesting to see how much the lines move, but beyond it being interesting it of course means nothing. I don't have a draftkings account, but put it this way: the best bet I can think of is that the opening over-under on the 2024 Jets season isn't going to be 14. If it is I'd finally sign up for an account. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augustiniak Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 22 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said: Even with the loftiest hopes, every May we aren't favored to win 14 games. I'll grant you this is a betting site with lines that move based on the action (or anticipated action, in this case) - which often does skew things to the Jets before reality sets in - rather than pure outcome predictions. Still, it's draftkings & not just a single, casual, homer Jets fan's prediction. Will be interesting to see how much the lines move, but beyond it being interesting it of course means nothing. I don't have a draftkings account, but put it this way: the best bet I can think of is that the opening over-under on the 2024 Jets season isn't going to be 14. If it is I'd finally sign up for an account. I’m wondering which key prime time game will be the nfl starting debut for jordan travis. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Barry McCockinner Posted May 16 Popular Post Share Posted May 16 what's will all the douchey comments about Jordan Travis starting? You guys rooting for our QB's to get injured or what? some of y'all are insufferable with the constant negativity. give it a rest. 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 I'm thinking about getting " If they can stay healthy..." tattoo'd across my back, gangland prison style. What do yall think? Too much? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost420 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Anyone have a presale code Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Vegas and the NFL and outside observers: The jets are a loaded team that should be fun to watch Jets fans: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjasi Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 14 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said: what's will all the douchey comments about Jordan Travis starting? You guys rooting for our QB's to get injured or what? some of y'all are insufferable with the constant negativity. give it a rest. Yea, I get being negative about the Jets, but this place has gotten cartoonish It's decreased my post count lately here for sure 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesr Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 2 hours ago, Rhg1084 said: Jets defense is set to feast on these bums I believe the official term is "embarrass them". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 6 minutes ago, Larz said: Vegas and the NFL and outside observers: The jets are a loaded team that should be fun to watch Jets fans: Ahh look, Larz is fake mad yet again because other fans are having fun with Vegas odds in May. Is there ever a day where you're not fake mad about your fellow fans Larz? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvill 51 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 1 hour ago, Integrity28 said: Will be completely reset by week3. You’re right. We’ll be favored to win 17/17 games by then. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JiFtheOracle Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rex-n-effect Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 1 hour ago, Jet Nut said: When did these offseason crowning happen? One in the last 13? When we went into the offseason undefeated in 2024 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 41 minutes ago, Augustiniak said: I’m wondering which key prime time game will be the nfl starting debut for jordan travis. I’d like to think he will get some mop up duty in garbage time first. Please? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Nut Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 7 hours ago, rex-n-effect said: When we went into the offseason undefeated in 2024 And this is it? After all the times we’ve been picked to suck? One time? Like we know it wouldn’t have been as good as predicted if not for one injury a year ago? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bicketybam Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 1 hour ago, Augustiniak said: I’m wondering which key prime time game will be the nfl starting debut for jordan travis. Enough of this sh*t. We all get you hate Rodgers but he's our QB. Go root for another team until he's gone if you are this much triggered. I guarantee you are one of those miserable Jets fans rooting for a Rodgers injury. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bicketybam Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said: what's will all the douchey comments about Jordan Travis starting? You guys rooting for our QB's to get injured or what? some of y'all are insufferable with the constant negativity. give it a rest. I truly believe that some of these clowns let their hate of Rodgers' perceived political stances get in the way of the fact that he is our QB. I bet the same ******* idiots wanted us to sign Tyreek Hill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bicketybam Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 1 hour ago, Warfish said: I'm thinking about getting " If they can stay healthy..." tattoo'd across my back, gangland prison style. What do yall think? Too much? I think there isn't nearly enough room unless they use an 8 font. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bicketybam Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 1 hour ago, Warfish said: Ahh look, Larz is fake mad yet again because other fans are having fun with Vegas odds in May. Is there ever a day where you're not fake mad about your fellow fans Larz? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenFish Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 4 hours ago, Rhg1084 said: Jets defense is set to feast on these bums The Jets drafted a 3rd of those guys. We’re a QB factory. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augustiniak Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 1 hour ago, bicketybam said: Enough of this sh*t. We all get you hate Rodgers but he's our QB. Go root for another team until he's gone if you are this much triggered. I guarantee you are one of those miserable Jets fans rooting for a Rodgers injury. That’s just how we roll, it has nothing to do with rodgers. The jets are just unlucky. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bicketybam Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 3 minutes ago, Augustiniak said: That’s just how we roll, it has nothing to do with rodgers. The jets are just unlucky. Just stop and own it. I hate that passive aggressive crap some people pull. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjasi Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 23 minutes ago, GreenFish said: The Jets drafted a 3rd of those guys. We’re a QB factory. I count 3 names? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augustiniak Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 2 minutes ago, bicketybam said: Just stop and own it. I hate that passive aggressive crap some people pull. I think it’s better than the pure aggressive behavior you exhibit here. This is supposed to be a fun gathering of jet fans. Every time you comment on me you’re berating me for something. There’s no place for bullies here. You’re a smart poster but please stop the bullying. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bicketybam Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 13 minutes ago, Augustiniak said: I think it’s better than the pure aggressive behavior you exhibit here. This is supposed to be a fun gathering of jet fans. Every time you comment on me you’re berating me for something. There’s no place for bullies here. You’re a smart poster but please stop the bullying. #safespace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doitny Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 8 hours ago, Larz said: loaded Joe Douglas sucks. cant wait for him to get fired by the end of the season. (sarcasm) lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Nut Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 5 hours ago, GreenFish said: The Jets drafted a 3rd of those guys. We’re a QB factory. That’s rough math wherever you went to school. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxman Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 Love this!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 On 5/16/2024 at 11:43 AM, Sperm Edwards said: Even with the loftiest hopes, every May we aren't favored to win 14 games. I'll grant you this is a betting site with lines that move based on the action (or anticipated action, in this case) - which often does skew things to the Jets before reality sets in - rather than pure outcome predictions. Still, it's draftkings & not just a single, casual, homer Jets fan's prediction. Will be interesting to see how much the lines move, but beyond it being interesting it of course means nothing. I don't have a draftkings account, but put it this way: the best bet I can think of is that the opening over-under on the 2024 Jets season isn't going to be 14. If it is I'd finally sign up for an account. The odds exist we all can bet Jets over 9.5 on fd or dk today Dk is offering a better price fwiw Futures are getting the money in early before there's any information. Whatever information exists the casinos have more than us My money waits for the weekly injury report And side note a fan base in the NY tri state area leaks dumb money. There was a survey from like gamblers dot com where NYJ fans were 30th and NYG were 32nd in "least astute" which sounds like an insult but it's really about sports book profit That's how the Jets can be favored in 14 games, the season is 9.5 and it all feels like a trap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bicketybam Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 30 minutes ago, bitonti said: The odds exist we all can bet Jets over 9.5 on fd or dk today Dk is offering a better price fwiw Futures are getting the money in early before there's any information. Whatever information exists the casinos have more than us My money waits for the weekly injury report And side note a fan base in the NY tri state area leaks dumb money. There was a survey from like gamblers dot com where NYJ fans were 30th and NYG were 32nd in "least astute" which sounds like an insult but it's really about sports book profit That's how the Jets can be favored in 14 games, the season is 9.5 and it all feels like a trap I'm no statistician but hear me out. In 2023, home favorites outright won 69.8% of their games. Away favorites won 64.1% of their games. Jets are home favorites in 8 games. At 69.8% win rate, that's 5.581 wins. Jets are away favorites in 6 games. At a 64.1% win rate that's 3.845 wins. Add those two together and you get 9.426 wins. The o/u is 9.5. Seems about right to me considering the favored team last season only won 67.6% of the time! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet_Engine1 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 On 5/16/2024 at 10:42 AM, Darnold's Forehead said: NFL jumping on the Jets bandwagon rn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet_Engine1 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 12 minutes ago, bicketybam said: I'm no statistician but hear me out. In 2023, home favorites outright won 69.8% of their games. Away favorites won 64.1% of their games. Jets are home favorites in 8 games. At 69.8% win rate, that's 5.581 wins. Jets are away favorites in 6 games. At a 64.1% win rate that's 3.845 wins. Add those two together and you get 9.426 wins. The o/u is 9.5. Seems about right to me considering the favored team last season only won 67.6% of the time! Cynthia Freuland said the exact same thing but looked WAY better saying it... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bicketybam Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 16 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said: Cynthia Freuland said the exact same thing but looked WAY better saying it... To be fair, I look great in a thong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 Of those 14 we're favored in, we're only favored by >3 points in 7 of them. Just trying to help out those who want to be debbie downers about this, lol. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 1 hour ago, bitonti said: The odds exist we all can bet Jets over 9.5 on fd or dk today Dk is offering a better price fwiw Futures are getting the money in early before there's any information. Whatever information exists the casinos have more than us My money waits for the weekly injury report And side note a fan base in the NY tri state area leaks dumb money. There was a survey from like gamblers dot com where NYJ fans were 30th and NYG were 32nd in "least astute" which sounds like an insult but it's really about sports book profit That's how the Jets can be favored in 14 games, the season is 9.5 and it all feels like a trap lmao It's quite simple -- they make the odds to get 50% of the money taking each side. That may lead to more individual games getting skewed a bit, but moving a point spread even 2-3 points (over true expected results) per instance, but it isn't going to move the betting nearly as much as moving the expected win total by 5 games. In theory, if the true expected-outcome spreads are dead-on, and they get skewed in favor of the Jets' fans expected bidding more than their opponents, then you should be betting against the Jets each week, and even if they win you'd still theoretically win more than you lose, but even now with 17 games that may not be a large enough sample size to rely upon long-term data -- even crap teams can get lucky & draw lots of key opponent injuries & they win more than they probably would have been expected to if it was full strength Jets vs full strength opponents (the 2015 Jets come to mind). Or far simpler, just look up their recent records against the spreads: I don't know what lines they're using, or if it's an aggregate of a few since sometimes there's a 0.5 or even 1 point disparity, but the Jets were allegedly 6-10-1 against the spread last year. I don't know what their expected win total was by adding up games they were favorites or dogs each week (I don't know if they were underdogs on 10 games, 8 games, 12 games, etc.), independent of the preseason win total O/U line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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