Will Aaron Rodgers Throw For Over 300 Sunday?

[bitonti]

[greenwichjetfan]

3 hours ago, The Crusher said:

No, he will not. He will likely have tons of receptions within 0-9 yards. Maybe a bang play or two to with either Garret or his Boo Sir Drops a lot. He will also have one of those weird interception on a semi tipped ball. 

Please have this autocorrect for "Lazard" for the rest of the season.

[Warfish]

3 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

...rock fight.

Wtf is a "rock fight"?

[UntouchableCrew]

20 minutes ago, Prodigal Syndicate said:

 

Just for fun and out of curiosity I took a look at the team results before and after this streak started.

Rodgers last game he threw for 300 yards they won.

Since the streak started Rodgers has gone 11-12 as a starter (12-12 if you wanna count the achilles games) and missed the playoffs.

His record for the 29 games before the streak started was 23-6.

I mean I don't want to argue this too forcefully because I think it's entirely possible he's washed and that we traded for a bum asset...

But do you actually think that "the streak" of some arbitrary number of production was the issue here?

He was 23-6 in the previous because he was a back to back MVPs -- he only passed for 300+ yards four times in 2021 and five times in 2020. His TD to INT ratio during that time seems far more indicative of why his team was winning.

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Take out the 36 yarder on the free play to Lazard....

Why?

[slimjasi]

29 minutes ago, Prodigal Syndicate said:

 

Just for fun and out of curiosity I took a look at the team results before and after this streak started.

Rodgers last game he threw for 300 yards they won.

Since the streak started Rodgers has gone 11-12 as a starter (12-12 if you wanna count the achilles games) and missed the playoffs.

His record for the 29 games before the streak started was 23-6.

 

5 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I mean I don't want to argue this too forcefully because I think it's entirely possible he's washed and that we traded for a bum asset...

But do you actually think that "the streak" of some arbitrary number of production was the issue here?

He was 23-6 in the previous because he was a back to back MVPs -- he only passed for 300+ yards four times in 2021 and five times in 2020. His TD to INT ratio during that time seems far more indicative of why his team was winning.

There is NO significant correlation between passing yards and winning %:

 

[The Crusher]

22 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Please have this autocorrect for "Lazard" for the rest of the season.

@Sperm Edwards

[More Cowbell]

That would mean Wilson has a 300 yard day as well since Rodgers barely throws to anyone else. 

[Jetsfan80]

4 hours ago, Green Ghost said:

I’m trying to understand why everyone was so excited to get Aaron Rodgers, and now that he’s finally playing everyone is afraid to let him air it out.

Oh I want him to air it out.  But I voted no because he won't.  This team wants to run early and often.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Wtf is a "rock fight"?

Low-scoring game.  Defensive struggle.  

[nj meadowlands]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Oh I want him to air it out.  But I voted no because he won't.  This team wants to run early and often.  

This team will run on first and second down on 66% of its drives even if it's generating 2.8 YPA. 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, The Crusher said:

@Sperm Edwards

Sir Drops a Lot! OMG I hate hate hate him!

[Warfish]

43 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Low-scoring game.  Defensive struggle.  

In all my life I have never once heard that referred to as a "rock fight".

More, I have never before herd those two words used together in an instance where actual rocks were not being thrown at each other by actual children.

Learn something new every day.

[Mr. Rogers]

There's literally only one stat I care about Sunday. The W/L column. Rodgers could throw for 500 yards and I won't care if we lose. The real meaning behind bringing him in was to give us the clutch and upside needed to win some damn games.

In the words of the late Al Davis, "Just win, baby". 

[Jetsfan80]

10 minutes ago, Warfish said:

In all my life I have never once heard that referred to as a "rock fight".

More, I have never before herd those two words used together in an instance where actual rocks were not being thrown at each other by actual children.

Learn something new every day.

Usually it’s a term used in basketball more than any other sport.  No idea the origins though!  

First time I heard it was regarding a D1 college mid-major basketball program, Drexel (school in Philly) who in the late 90s and 2000s liked to keep games really physical and low scoring, ideally winning something like 48-45 or something like that.  

Their coach’s name was Bruiser Flint (not lying) and he probably dropped more F bombs in games towards his players, the refs and fans alike than any other coach, lol.

[Fantasy Island]

He can’t do it in two games combined.

[Fantasy Island]

I remember when everyone thought he would break the all time jets passing yards record for a season. 
Those days are gone

[T0mShane]

2 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Yeah, I don't get taking out that play. Rodgers has done that forever. 

 

I’ve seen you guys lean on YPA to suggest Rodgers was better than he was. I’m pointing out that the sample size is tiny which makes the YPA deceiving, especially considering the flukiness of the play. 

[Mr. Rogers]

6 minutes ago, Fantasy Island said:

I remember when everyone thought he would break the all time jets passing yards record for a season. 
Those days are gone

I mean... Considering it's a 17 game season now, he needs what... 240 yards per game? It's pathetic, but that's pretty realistic.

Unless, of course, the defense looks like last week all year lol

[jgb]

Just win, baby. Moral victories are so 2012-2023.

[Green Ghost]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

Wtf is a "rock fight"?

You and @Jetsfan80 grew up in pretty good neighborhoods if you don’t know what a rock fight is.

It’s basically what it sounds like. X number of kids firing rocks at each other. (usually from a fairly good distance however)

[Green Ghost]

27 minutes ago, Fantasy Island said:

He can’t do it in two games combined.

[Jetsfan80]

12 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

You and @Jetsfan80 grew up in pretty good neighborhoods if you don’t know what a rock fight is.

It’s basically what it sounds like. X number of kids firing rocks at each other. (usually from a fairly good distance however)

Luckily I grew up when the Nintendo NES first came out (followed swiftly by the Sega Genesis), so there was less of a need for such barbarism, lol.  

[slimjasi]

16 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I’ve seen you guys lean on YPA to suggest Rodgers was better than he was. I’m pointing out that the sample size is tiny which makes the YPA deceiving, especially considering the flukiness of the play. 

Why is it flukey? It’s something he has a proven track record of successfully doing.  

And everyone’s sample size is small - the league has played one game. His YPA in one game is indicative of how he played in one game. Nothing more.

you’re trying to remove an observation so the data better fits your preferred narrative. As @jgb pointed out above, that dog won’t hunt. 
 

[jgb]

22 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Why is it flukey? It’s something he has a proven track record of successfully doing.  

And everyone’s sample size is small - the league has played one game. His YPA in one game is indicative of how he played in one game. Nothing more.

you’re trying to remove an observation so the data better fits your preferred narrative. As @jgb pointed out above, that dog won’t hunt. 
 

Loathe to go against T0m because he’s not only a mensch but also a vicious debater, but I do disagree with him here. One of the main reasons for bringing in a HOF QB is that he can suss out and capitalize on situations like blown coverages and free plays with elite situational awareness, which is what he did.

I remember Zach throwing balls out of bounds during free plays.

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

I remember Zach throwing balls out of bounds during free plays.

Bingo 

[Fantasy Island]

1 hour ago, Green Ghost said:

You and @Jetsfan80 grew up in pretty good neighborhoods if you don’t know what a rock fight is.

It’s basically what it sounds like. X number of kids firing rocks at each other. (usually from a fairly good distance however)

We had BB gun wars when I was growing up. 

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Green Ghost said:

You and @Jetsfan80 grew up in pretty good neighborhoods if you don’t know what a rock fight is.

It’s basically what it sounds like. X number of kids firing rocks at each other. (usually from a fairly good distance however)

We had a different name for it down South but it’s no longer acceptable to repeat 

[Sperm Edwards]

On 9/12/2024 at 12:29 PM, UntouchableCrew said:

Andy Dalton has done it three times for three teams because he's making spot starts for awful teams and accumulating lots of garbage time stats.

I'd be surprised if Rodgers passed for 300 yards too many times this year. I feel like Bills/Dolphins games seem like the sort of games I could see it happening though.

No doubt, but also depends what "too many" means.

Even the leaders in passing yardage eclipse 300 about 5x and miss that mark 12x. There's the outlier when you see a guy go over 5000 yards, but it's not like that's the norm for anybody.

Last one that was kind of a year-after-year norm for anyone was maybe Brees in his rubber-arm days throwing 650 passes (in 16 games), mostly in domes at that.

There are zero QBs expected to pass for 300+ yards this week. Doesn't mean no one will - likely the opposite - but individually no one is expected to pass for 300 yards this week.

[Pac]

On 9/12/2024 at 11:54 AM, FidelioJet said:

Rodgers isn't close the MVP player we had hoped he might be.   At this point he's a game manager.  

Yes, he can still throw the ball but the days of counting on him to carry his team is over.  Sure, he'll have a 300 yard game here or there (might even be this week) but it shouldn't ever be expected.

[Biggs]

On 9/12/2024 at 11:27 AM, Green Ghost said:

I’m trying to understand why everyone was so excited to get Aaron Rodgers, and now that he’s finally playing everyone is afraid to let him air it out.

Because we were thinking were getting Aaron Rodgers the guy who's going into the HOF, not Aaron Rodgers the 40 year old Timothy Leary acolyte who can throw the ball in his sleep but needs a nap for games that start after 1PM EST.  

[Claymation]

On 9/12/2024 at 1:24 PM, T0mShane said:

Take out the 36 yarder on the free play to Lazard and it’s 6.6 ypa, which knocks him down to bottom third of the league on what was a historically bad day for passing yardage totals

Did that play not count?

By that logic, if you take Caleb's 15 incompletions, he would have 100% completion percentage for the best in the league.

[Biggs]

20 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I’ve seen you guys lean on YPA to suggest Rodgers was better than he was. I’m pointing out that the sample size is tiny which makes the YPA deceiving, especially considering the flukiness of the play. 

If you count that pass when the SF D stopped defending, he had a QBR of 82.8 which ranked 22nd after 1 game.  He was not good.  He still showed great arm talent. 

I thought he was worse than his arm talent.  Brain and movement sub-optimal.  Arm amazing. 

[slimjasi]

12 minutes ago, Biggs said:

If you count that pass when the SF D stopped defending, he had a QBR of 82.8 which ranked 22nd after 1 game.   

When did the SF D “stop defending?” 

why would you “stop defending” when YOUR side was offsides?

think critically for a moment about what you are saying. 

[#27TheDominator]

So that's it?  We have decided that is the best we can ever expect to see from Rodgers?  Watching that game I saw an rusty old **** that could still sling it, but looked a bit questionable in the pocket.  SF has a great D.  You know the I get discussing what we saw, but acting like that is demonstrative proof of what he will be all season is ridiculous. 

He looked like a streak passer that never got into a groove.  That is exactly what I suspect he will be.  You know, Purdy looked like sh*t the first 3 drives too, before we got worn down.  @T0mShane is saying that without the 36 yarder his YPA was only 6.6?  Well last year, for the season, SF allowed YPA of 5.9 or so.  Small sample size sure, but not exactly proof of how bad he sucked.  The run game was worse and more concerning IMO.