QB Draft Analysis

[Sperm Edwards]

I will preface this by saying this is LONG. There’s a lot of analysis, so if you like pithy stuff this isn’t going to be for you. If you’re wondering what are the chances of really getting a successful QB in the draft, you may find this interesting.

Since there’s all this talk suddenly about how we just have to get Brady Quinn, which will require at least the #5 pick, it got me thinking. What are the odds he'll be as good as we need? Or better? Or worse? What about much, much worse?

So I looked over the draft picks from '89-'03 (I graciously allowed that you give EVERY recent pick from the '04-'06 drafts the benefit of the doubt of turning into a top-5 or top-10 QB by leaving them out so there are zero busts. I further, also graciously, started with a draft in which the #1 pick was a HOF player, Troy Aikman). Players from ’04-‘06 haven’t played enough to grade all of them & it’s not statistically accurate if you only grade those who got off to a fast start, particularly those who are in year one or year two with a mercilessly awful supporting cast, or those holding a clipboard for a serviceable starter. I wanted to give each player over three full seasons from when they were drafted to account for late bloomers like Drew Brees who was mostly garbage himself until his 4th season.

Including supplemental picks (which do count since a team surrendered a first-rounder to get the player), there were 32 first-round QB's taken over that span I tried to break them down as to what they've turned into (or what they may still have the potential for if they're still playing):

• A = Good/Great Starter. This gives a Kerry Collins the same grade as a Peyton Manning, mind you. He was a good starter for a # of years & was in a superbowl (and not "despite Kerry Collins" like a Trent Dilfer)
  
• B = Average to slightly above average QB (not 1 year, but over the career. Injuries count, like Pennington. May still have upside, like Grossman). Maybe not great, but not a sure liability; the guy can play & throw a football & hit a receiver.
  
• C = Below average starter (at least so far) but might still have above-average potential if all the cards fell the right way.
  
• D = Moderate bust (they played & started a little, but sucked horribly)
  
• E = Total bust (didn't even start, or barely started; even if due to injury)

While my individual player ratings are subjective, I tried to be fair (even generous at times, to show the upside of any pick; particularly a high one) & the overall #'s shouldn't be that off even if you disagree on an individual player here & there. Note that undrafted QB’s are not included here. Their chance of success (when you consider all the undrafted QB’s in the country) is so minuscule that you have to just chalk up the successful ones to a combination dumb luck, oversight by scouts & draft gurus, and rare opportunity.

Round 1 is a special animal. In round 5, who cares if the guy was the 1st pick or the 31st pick? In the first round there’s a big difference; at least on draft day we all think so. So I broke up round 1 into groups:

(Note: the players within each group appear in descending order by year drafted, not by any ranking of their talent. Also note that some percentages may be statistically insignificant, like if calculating a %age of 6 players. In summation this will prove insignificant, as you'll see, but it's here for you to look at anyway).

Picks 1-5 (16 total):

• A = 44% (7 total: Palmer, McNabb, P.Manning, McNair, K.Collins, Bledsoe, Aikman)
  
• B = 13% (2; Vick, George)
  
• C = 13% (2; Carr, Harrington)
  
• D = 13% (2; Couch, Mirer)
  
• E = 19% (3; Shuler, Akili Smith, Leaf)

Picks 6-12 (6 total):

• A = 17% (1; Culpepper)
  
• B = 33% (2; Leftwich, Dilfer)
  
• C = 0
  
• D = 0
  
• E = 50% (3; McNown, Klinger, Ware)

Picks 13-20 (3 total):

• A = 0
  
• B = 33% (1; Pennington)
  
• C = 0
  
• D = 33% (1; Boller)
  
• E = 33% (1; McGwire)

Picks 21-32 + Supplemental (7 total):

• A = 0
  
• B = 14% (1; Grossman)
  
• C = 0
  
• D = 43% (3; Ramsey, Maddox, D.Brown)
  
• E = 43% (3; Druckenmiller, Marinovich, Walsh)

(I’ll only elaborate on Pennington & Ramsey b/c this is a Jets site. At times Chad was a very good QB for us, but I can’t grade him as an “A” simply because he has never had an above-average season with 16 starts in any season in his 7-year career. That’s a lot to overlook. Ramsey was traded for a 6th rounder & is now down to 3rd-string on a team who's #1 is struggling).

Picks 1-12: (22 total)

A-B = 55% (12)

C-E = 45% (10)

Picks 13-32+supp: (10 total)

A-B = 20% (2)

C-E = 80% (10)

Then the other rounds (I didn’t break it down by early/late, even in round 2, but this was tiring enough):

Round 2: (15 total)

A-B = 33% (5; Brees, Favre, Batch, Plummer, K.Stewart)

C-E = 67% (10; Carter/King/Banks are the best of this bunch)

Round 3: (17 total)

A-B = 18% (3; C.Simms, Griese, O’Donnell)

C-E = 82% (14; McCown/Zeier are the best ones here)

Round 4: (30 total)

A-B = 13% (4; Garrard, Brooks, R.Johnson, S.Mitchell)

C-E = 87% (26)

Round 5: (13 total)

A-B = 8% (1; Brunell)

C-E = 92% (12)

Round 6: (26 total)

A-B = 15% (4; Bulger, Brady, M.Hasselbeck, J.Blake)

C-E = 85% (22)

Round 7-9 (53 total)

A-B = 8% (4; Frerotte, Grbac, T.Green, B.Johnson)

C-E = 92%

Rounds 10+ (none of them were anything; few made a roster even as 3rd-string for a single season)

Basically, if you’re not picking a QB in the top-12, there isn’t a tremendously greater chance of success from the #13 overall through round 6. Maybe a 10% advantage at most (and one can easily write most of that off since those QB’s are given far more chances than the later-picked guys who have to put up or shut up in their first opportunities).

This surprised me. Basically after the top-12, you’ve got a 1 in 5 chance of getting someone decent. Though it should be noted that some of those players below are well above average, or at least were at one time (Brady, Favre, Bulger, Brees, etc), who far are better than some of the “successful” picks in the top-12 (Leftwich, George, Dilfer) that I graded equally. For the purpose of this “study” I graded them evenly since having one the best QB’s in the NFL is not a prerequisite for winning a SuperBowl (or even appearing in one), though clearly it helps…a lot.

Only number that is off the charts compared to the rest (and not surprising), is a top-5 pick. So in the early 1990s and prior, with no salary cap (and particularly no free agency in which to land a franchise-type QB), that’s clearly your best move; and even that tips the scales at 44% success (less than a 50/50 shot),. Still, if you need a QB and there’s no salary cap, you’d trade up to get that top-5 pick at all costs.

However, we are in a salary cap era. And next year a QB drafted in the top-5 should fetch roughly a $60M contract. Re-read that. A $60M contract for a player with no NFL experience, who (no matter what you think of him as a pro prospect) will more than likely be a below average starter, if not an outright flop. And you have to count a player like Trent Dilfer or Jeff George as a “successful” top-5 pick along with the Carson Palmers and Peyton Mannings to bring the percentage up that high.

Now further consider that at least some of the reason for the higher success rate (other than a generally higher innate ability) is that a QB drafted higher is given far more time and opportunity to find success than a late-round pick. A first-rounder (particularly a top-5 pick) is frequently given at least 2 starting seasons even without success before he’s pulled for good (Harrington, Couch, etc). We’re witnessing it right now with Eli. He’s got that strong arm, but there are spats where he looks like he couldn’t squarely hit a fence from 10 feet away on a sunny, windless day. He’ll be given the rest of this year. And next year, if he’s playing at the same level. And the year after that. And if the Giants let him go, someone else will give him yet another chance. Later picks are very rarely afforded such opportunity; you can count the Trent Greens and Brad Johnsons - late picks who finally put it together years later - on one hand.

But what happens in the meantime? Your franchise pisses away 3-5 years, if you include the extra time it takes to break in a newly acquired rookie or FA after you've finally given up hope on the first guy. Other talented players you have, that you’ve drafted, and free agents you’ve acquired, watch their prime come & go while your golden boy struggles. This player has further eaten up the cap space that could’ve been used on a known-quantity, pro-bowl talent, high-priced FA at any position on offense or defense.

The salary cap era just makes it more difficult to bet on the wrong pony. The stakes are high. And if you guess wrong, there goes your window of opportunity, even if everything else falls into place at every other position on the field.

On the other hand: yes, finding the next Carson Palmer would be amazing; and you’re supremely unlikely to land him after the top 12 picks are off the board. It's about risk vs reward, like many important decisions are. Draw your own conclusions, I guess.

[ECURB]

Basically it is a bad move to be giving up potetial talent (picks) for one guy who will eat up a ton of cap space and may not be great...

That said, if we have the chance to draft a decent QB in round 1 without trading (just our pick) take him. (ex Russel)

[Sperm Edwards]

Well it works both ways. If you know in advance who's going to be great & who's going to flop it's easy. You accounted for not trading up. You know, not giving up a #11 pick and a #13 pick in round two (and the gobs of extra cap room) to trade up to #5.

Look at it the other way. What about giving taking the #5 pick and in doing so passing up on the #11 in round 1, the #13 in round 2, and the additional cap room that allows you to sign a quality FA outright, or to go after a premiere FA instead of a mediocre FA?

[ECURB]

Cant we just kidnap Brady Quinn, re-name him and claim him as ours... sounds easier to me and it doesnt cost any draft picks!

I wonder if Weis will try and talk Mangini into drafting him...

[gang_green03]

Well it works both ways. If you know in advance who's going to be great & who's going to flop it's easy. You accounted for not trading up. You know, not giving up a #11 pick and a #13 pick in round two (and the gobs of extra cap room) to trade up to #5.

Look at it the other way. What about giving taking the #5 pick and in doing so passing up on the #11 in round 1, the #13 in round 2, and the additional cap room that allows you to sign a quality FA outright, or to go after a premiere FA instead of a mediocre FA?

Do you mean kinda like the Giants situation where it was more or less Merriman and Rivers for Eli?

Great job and thats a very interesting analysis.

To me that analysis still shows that its not worth risking everything for a top 5 pick. If we were in there, go after the QB if you want, but if your out of that top 12 range don't risk it.

[raffyD]

Nice work sperm, I really enjoyed the analysis and I liked the comparison by gang with Eli for Merriman/Rivers/Kaeding because it's just as much about how you eventually distribute the money as it is about who you give it all to.

[LionelRichie]

sperm - i really don't want to argue your stats or write-up. its well written to prove your point although it fails to take several factors into account.

at the end of the day the jets need a QB. if the FO thinks Quinn is a perrenial pro-bowler then i say go for it. their jobs would ultimately be on the line if they made that move so they better sure he is the real thing. if they think quinn is a nice player but not in the manning/brady league then it is probably not worth it.

if carson palmer was coming out this season and you knew he would be this good, what would you be willing to give up for him?

[madmike1]

I like what you're saying here alot.

[Pragmatic Bus]

I will preface this by saying this is LONG. There

[madmike1]

your analasys is great and all but your forgetting one thing. first rounders get more chance than other QBs. there is more money involved and a first round busts are more devastating than later round.

yet another reason why giving up our 3 1st day picks to move up would be a HUGE mistake.

[PeterNorth09]

You guys wanted to pass up on Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler to draft an undersized OT who is an average run blocker and gets beat up by Buffalo Bills defenders. You got your wish and now the Jets missed out on one of the best QB draft classes in a long time. Now you want to pass up on Brady Quinn. Keep repeating history ok?

Last time the Jets had a QB that could dominate a game and win it by himself was Vinny Testaverde in 1998. Chad Pennington has been a good QB but he was always a guy who managed games and he's taken us as far as he can go. And now the next generation of unspectacular, undersized Jets QB's who can only be trusted to manage games and do nothing else is here now with Ramsey/Clemens.

[bitonti]

You guys wanted to pass up on Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler to draft an undersized OT who is an average run blocker and gets beat up by Buffalo Bills defenders. You got your wish and now the Jets missed out on one of the best QB draft classes in a long time. Now you want to pass up on Brady Quinn. Keep repeating history ok?

How exactly are the Jets gonna pass up Brady Quinn when they aren't likely to be picking in the top 10?

As for the other 3 i don't think the Jets would have much better record if any of the above were starting, and Adrian Jones were the left tackle.

****

SE this was an excellent article. Great research and sound conclusions. still 55% for slots 1-12 isn't horrible odds. It's like pocket 9s against AQ offsuit before the flop.

[ECURB]

to draft an undersized OT who is an average run blocker

Bricks run blocking has been very good

[Pragmatic Bus]

You guys wanted to pass up on Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler to draft an undersized OT who is an average run blocker and gets beat up by Buffalo Bills defenders. You got your wish and now the Jets missed out on one of the best QB draft classes in a long time. Now you want to pass up on Brady Quinn. Keep repeating history ok?

Last time the Jets had a QB that could dominate a game and win it by himself was Vinny Testaverde in 1998. Chad Pennington has been a good QB but he was always a guy who managed games and he's taken us as far as he can go. And now the next generation of unspectacular, undersized Jets QB's who can only be trusted to manage games and do nothing else is here now with Ramsey/Clemens.

rookie linemen always struggle there is nothing wrong with that. next year he'll get stronger and bigger. and he has a big frame and the biggest wingspan of any body in last years combine if i remember correcly. he will grow right into that big frame of his. and he already has done a great job against. seymore and freeney. and he is the fastest line man in nfl which allows him to get up the field quickly to set up blocks. youll see him going to probowl for the next 10 to 15 years. great pick. he could have easily been the #1 pick in last years draft.

[The Troll]

Great post, Sperm.

Personally, I would rather sit tight and try to grab JaMarcus Russell or Troy Smith if we go the QB route. IF we traded up, I would hope it would be for Adrian Peterson. He has more of a chance of being the next Tomlinson than Quinn does of being the next Palmer, IMO.

[Barton]

Great piece, sperm.

If we make the trade up for Quinn, I will be a supporter. He's the best QB prospect since Carson Palmer.

Peternorth acts like Leinart, Young and Cutler are all proven QBs in the NFL. You crack me up.

[serphnx]

Haha I knew you wouldn't fail me Sperm! Am i correct that this analysis occured partly because of me?

I just want to add that the impact of an A QB is absolutely monumental on any franchise. As long as you have that A QB you are almost certainly assured of always having a chance to be a contender. A 44% (or 55% if you want) chance of getting a top QB is something you HAVE to roll the dice on, there is absolutely no other chance of turning around your franchise quickly. Even if you guess right on other positions, they do not have the same impact, and you have to guess right repeatedly in order to get the same result as just hitting on your franchise QB pick! On a team that is coached well and has a decent supporting cast, that QB could give you a SB chance, whereas any other position really can't do that. Maybe some exceptions can be made for guys like Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher and LaDainian Tomlinson, but I'd imagine they are much rarer than a simple A QB is.

Now does that mean I think we should trade up for Quinn? Nah, not necessarily, I really don't think he is going to be one of those A QBs, and there IS in fact a cost balance where it no longer makes sense. All I wanted to show with my argument in the other thread is what you've shown with statistical analysis, simply that a top 5 picked QB has a higher chance of success than QBs picked in other rounds, in general.

Well, after we bomb next year, I believe we'll get that top pick, and maybe JeMarcus Russell or something.

[gang_green03]

Haha I knew you wouldn't fail me Sperm! Am i correct that this analysis occured partly because of me?

I just want to add that the impact of an A QB is absolutely monumental on any franchise. As long as you have that A QB you are almost certainly assured of always having a chance to be a contender. A 44% (or 55% if you want) chance of getting a top QB is something you HAVE to roll the dice on, there is absolutely no other chance of turning around your franchise quickly. Even if you guess right on other positions, they do not have the same impact, and you have to guess right repeatedly in order to get the same result as just hitting on your franchise QB pick! On a team that is coached well and has a decent supporting cast, that QB could give you a SB chance, whereas any other position really can't do that. Maybe some exceptions can be made for guys like Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher and LaDainian Tomlinson, but I'd imagine they are much rarer than a simple A QB is.

Now does that mean I think we should trade up for Quinn? Nah, not necessarily, I really don't think he is going to be one of those A QBs, and there IS in fact a cost balance where it no longer makes sense. All I wanted to show with my argument in the other thread is what you've shown with statistical analysis, simply that a top 5 picked QB has a higher chance of success than QBs picked in other rounds, in general.

Well, after we bomb next year, I believe we'll get that top pick, and maybe JeMarcus Russell or something.

If we bomb next season and Clemens shows no promise, in significant playing time, then we should take a strong look at Russell or Brohm.

[RSJ]

Great post, Sperm.

Personally, I would rather sit tight and try to grab JaMarcus Russell or Troy Smith if we go the QB route. IF we traded up, I would hope it would be for Adrian Peterson. He has more of a chance of being the next Tomlinson than Quinn does of being the next Palmer, IMO.

I agree Troll.

I'm not a huge Quinn fan and I'm a Notre Dame fan. He is a good Qb - but he too has looked really, really bad at times. Quinn is not the 6'5" 230 rocket arm QB I want to spend a top 5 pick on. He is more the 6'2" - 6'3" Rick Mirer type who would have gotten his head pounded into submission had Weis not shown up on campus.

Speaking of Carson Palmer What year is Jordan Palmer in? Any chance he comes out? He looks the part of a top 5 pick.

[gang_green03]

I agree Troll.

I'm not a huge Quinn fan and I'm a Notre Dame fan. He is a good Qb - but he too has looked really, really bad at times. Quinn is not the 6'5" 230 rocket arm QB I want to spend a top 5 pick on. He is more the 6'2" - 6'3" Rick Mirer type who would have gotten his head pounded into submission had Weis not shown up on campus.

Speaking of Carson Palmer What year is Jordan Palmer in? Any chance he comes out? He looks the part of a top 5 pick.

Jordan Palmer is a senior but I want absolutely no parts of him.

He has some tools to work with but I think he gets more notice than he should simply because of his brother. He's not near the prospect his brother was physically or mentally.

He has the size and is strong but he is very raw. I always thought he had a strong arm but now I'm reading that its only solid. He throws a ton of interceptions and has poor vision. He also has terrible mechanics, partially because of his o-line, but still something to worry about. Not very mobile either.

He's way to much of a project.

[RSJ]

Jordan Palmer is a senior but I want absolutely no parts of him.

He has some tools to work with but I think he gets more notice than he should simply because of his brother. He's not near the prospect his brother was physically or mentally.

He has the size and is strong but he is very raw. I always thought he had a strong arm but now I'm reading that its only solid. He throws a ton of interceptions and has poor vision. He also has terrible mechanics, partially because of his o-line, but still something to worry about. Not very mobile either.

He's way to much of a project.

Cool thanks for the info.

Like I said he looks the part - but was not sure if he could ever be the part.

[Sperm Edwards]

your analasys is great and all but your forgetting one thing. first rounders get more chance than other QBs. there is more money involved and a first round busts are more devastating than later round.

I only mentioned each of those points 2x apiece. Maybe I should've made it longer & repeated myself more.

[serphnx]

Top 5 picks may get more chances, but they also generally come into terrible situations. You don't get a top 5 pick because you have great coaching and talent on both sides of the ball. Generally you got it because you have no O-line and your coaches are inept. The fact that even with these handicaps the top 5 picks generally out-perform the later picks just goes to show you that the QB's level of talent brings everyone else up, and that better talent is usually taken earlier. There is a possibility that a lot of the Bs could have been As if they had just gone later.

[ECURB]

Top 5 picks may get more chances, but they also generally come into terrible situations. You don't get a top 5 pick because you have great coaching and talent on both sides of the ball. Generally you got it because you have no O-line and your coaches are inept. The fact that even with these handicaps the top 5 picks generally out-perform the later picks just goes to show you that the QB's level of talent brings everyone else up, and that better talent is usually taken earlier. There is a possibility that a lot of the Bs could have been As if they had just gone later.

To be honest, I never looked at it this way... and when put this way taking a QB early makes more sense... still not for what we would have to give up!

I still vote for Clemens

[gang_green03]

Top 5 picks may get more chances, but they also generally come into terrible situations. You don't get a top 5 pick because you have great coaching and talent on both sides of the ball. Generally you got it because you have no O-line and your coaches are inept. The fact that even with these handicaps the top 5 picks generally out-perform the later picks just goes to show you that the QB's level of talent brings everyone else up, and that better talent is usually taken earlier. There is a possibility that a lot of the Bs could have been As if they had just gone later.

That's a good point I never really thought of it that way. I think that it evens out eventually since their usually given more chances, but they're usually also on bad teams.

[nj meadowlands]

Sperm- get a hobby

[ECURB]

Sperm- get a hobby

You found it!

[TuscanyTile2]

On 12/12/2006 at 8:26 PM, The Troll said:

Great post, Sperm.

 

Personally, I would rather sit tight and try to grab JaMarcus Russell or Troy Smith if we go the QB route. IF we traded up, I would hope it would be for Adrian Peterson. He has more of a chance of being the next Tomlinson than Quinn does of being the next Palmer, IMO.

This post simultaneously is brilliant and horrendous.  I love it!

[Villain The Foe]

3 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

This post simultaneously is brilliant and horrendous.  I love it!

lmao. 

[Sperm Edwards]

I’m embarrassed by the brevity of my original post here. 

[nycdan]

You people love your necros.  That makes you necrophiliacs, doesn't it?

[jack48]

To me, Cousins is aspiring to mediocrity. He stinks against good teams.  That is the definition of a mediocre QB.  Mediocre QB and Coach without a Clue ?  This could be the start of something small.

[rangerous]

good original post.  i wonder how it holds up in the post 2000 era.  it seems like an awful lot of 3rd rounders are making some pretty good accounts of themselves.  and of course there's the 5th round elephant in the room too.  probably the premise stays the same because there are just so many attributes that can coached.  if the qb doesn't have accuracy or leadership ability or intelligence or enough athleticism he's going to fail.

[Dunnie]

What if we land cousins AND take Allen ?

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[BCJet]

1 hour ago, rangerous said:

good original post.  i wonder how it holds up in the post 2000 era.  it seems like an awful lot of 3rd rounders are making some pretty good accounts of themselves.  and of course there's the 5th round elephant in the room too.  probably the premise stays the same because there are just so many attributes that can coached.  if the qb doesn't have accuracy or leadership ability or intelligence or enough athleticism he's going to fail.

The biggest difference between now and then is that Goff's contract was for $30 million over 4 years with a team option as opposed to the obscene numbers that guys like Jamarcus got back in the day.

The extra money saved on rookie contracts has slowly trickled down throughout the league, which is why there are so many teams with big cap space now.  Each team slowly received a lot of extra money for veteran players, but there was no change in the amount or skill lever of the veteran players, which means that there simply arent enough guys to pay which is why you see more of the Buster Skrine type guys being overpaid.

This is why spending on a guy like Cousins isnt as huge of a detriment to the rest of your roster as it was in 2000.  If free agency had Cousins, an elite LT, and an elite edge rusher, id easily rather pay the edge rusher and draft a QB.  But those positions are still so difficult to find/fill that those players simply arent available.  So now teams are faced with either "overpaying" a QB or overpaying 3/4 role players and hoping those guys dont mail it in now that they are paid.