Two weeks into NFL free agency, Ryan Fitzpatrick is still looking for a job.

With a number of teams still looking for a quarterback, including Fitzpatrick’s most recent team, the New York Jets, it’s a bit surprising a quarterback who threw 31 touchdowns and led his team to 10 wins has not been signed.

 

Fitzpatrick’s situation is a fascinating case-study in how the league balances the eye test and stats when evaluating a player. In 2015, Fitzpatrick’s tape did not necessarily match up with his numbers. He’s a quarterback with many flaws that were hidden by a tremendous supporting cast and a fair bit of luck.

While the stats suggest Fitzpatrick was a league-average passer, the tape shows he was one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league and the biggest reason a talented Jets team missed the postseason.

The most glaring weakness in his Fitzpatrick game is his arm strength. He can’t push the ball more than 20 yards downfield without sacrificing accuracy. He only completed 20% of his passes on such attempts.

 

And it’s not like Fitzpatrick is very accurate on shorter throws either. According to Cian Fahey’s quarterback charting project, 72% of Fitzpatrick passes were thrown accurately, the second worst number in the league.

Having receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker propped up Fitzpatrick’s numbers in a big way. The duo hauled in 26 of his 31 touchdowns. Marshall, in particular, was a big reason for Fitzpatrick’s success. His large catch radius was able to make up for his quarterback’s poor ball placement on many occasions. And Fitzpatrick’s completion percentage (59.6%) still fell way below league average.

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Because Fitzpatrick is a veteran and went to Harvard (Did you know he went to Harvard?), we just assume he’s a good decision-maker, in spite of the high interception totals and ill-advised scrambles. Fitzpatrick is actually quite limited in the pocket. He’s closer to a Robert Griffin III than a Tom Brady. When his first option doesn’t get open, Fitzpatrick devolves into an erratic decision-maker.

Fitzpatrick threw only 15 interceptions, but that number doesn’t really capture how reckless he was with the football. Fahey charted Fitzpatrick with 30 “interceptable passes,” second most in the entire league. Only ten of those passes were actually caught by defenders — his five other interceptions were deemed the fault of the receiver. Expect a regression to the mean in 2016.

Fitzpatrick is a career backup who found himself in a great situation. We’ve seen this situation play out before. Most recently in 2013, when Josh McCown put up ridiculous numbers for the Bears, got a nice contract from the Buccaneers and played like the backup he truly was in 2014. The Jets aren’t going to make that same mistake. The team understands it will not be able to pay Fitzpatrick and keep the talented supporting cast that props him up.

 

Going back to Geno Smith is the more financially sound decision if New York can’t find a cheaper option. Smith is a very flawed quarterback but not much of a downgrade from Fitzpatrick. He’s just as inaccurate and turnover-prone but has a much stronger arm. His 2014 rate stats (completion percentage, yards per attempt, etc.) aren’t far off from what Fitzpatrick was able to produce with a much better team around him. And at 25, Smith has the much higher ceiling.

Even if Fitzpatrick were to come down to the Jets’ price, which is reportedly a shade under $10 million, I’m not so sure it’s worth coughing up the money. Smith is on the books for just $1.59 million in 2016 and might be the better quarterback if given the chance. The Jets offense did just fine when Smith took over for an injured Fitzpatrick during the Raiders game.

With the team already struggling to maintain its defense — the real strength of the roster — those millions it can save by passing on Fitzpatrick are a big deal. Per Spotrac. The team has about $2 million in projected cap room and still needs money to sign its rookie class. For the Jets to clear enough space to give Fitzpatrick even a modest contract, the team would have to make some cost-cutting moves, which could include trading all-pro defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson, who is set to make $15.7 million playing under the franchise tag in 2016.

In order to marginally improve the team’s quarterback situation, the team will have to take giant steps backwards elsewhere. And if Fitzpatrick couldn’t get the 2015 roster to the playoffs, why should we expect any different with a weaker team in 2016?