Fitzpatrick and Strength of Schedule

[AFJF]

9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So let me get this straight.  I suggest Fitz is a slightly better version of a QB than Chad Pennington, and everyone loses their minds.  Got it. 

The hate has officially gone too far.

 

Chad Pennington had a great first season when he threw 22 TDs and 4 INTs as a starter.

After that one magical season, he went 80 TD's/60 INTs.

Meh.

 

 

[Brand New Jet]

2 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Just so we're clear, nobody said Fitz was Brady or a top-notch QB, but you're saying Pennington was?

No.. Just to be crystal clear , we have posters comparing Fitzy to QB's that have ACTUALLY achieved playoffs, playoff wins against good teams.   Fitz doesnt come close to that.  A guy that's had a total of 1 winning season out of 11, played on multiple teams, whose actual stats mirrors that of Geno, doesnt deserve to be compared to ANY QB that actually achieved anything note worthy in the NFL..  

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, AFJF said:

Chad Pennington had a great first season when he threw 22 TDs and 4 INTs as a starter.

After that one magical season, he went 80 TD's/60 INTs.

Meh.

 

 

Exactly.  "Meh".  My statement was nothing earth shattering.  It was rather obvious.  Yet here we are with people fighting against it. 

[AFJF]

Most Who favor Fitz over Geno seem to be in agreement that he should be somewhere in the $12 mil per year range.  That would make him the 24th highest paid QB in the NFL.

Are these the "top notch QB" salaries we're saying his supporters are demanding?

[whodeawhodat]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Why is ok to just say Geno sucks but to dig into Fitzs numbers, raw numbers as Slats just did, Fitzs numbers, if they disprove the Conquering hero nonsense people get shltty with the messenger.  We have dumbass Jet fans digging into Curtis Martins numbers to make him less than a HOF player but Fitzs actual numbers are off limits.

Got it 

I really wont get into this again.  I hope whoever our QB is plays like their hair is on fire and leads us to the playoffs.  If you or anyone wants to discredit what Fitz did for our offense last year, go right ahead.  If you want to make excuses for why watching our offense under Geno was so painful for 2 years, go right ahead.  

 

Go Jets!

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Most Fitzfans seem to be in agreement that he should be somewhere in the $12 mil per year range.  That would make him the 24th highest paid QB in the NFL.

Are these the "top notch QB" salaries we're saying his supporters are demanding?

Factor in that Winston, Mariota, Carr and Bortles are on rookie deals (and all 4 will likely be making a lot more than Fitz has over the course of his career in due course), plus you have unproven Goff and Wentz under rookie deals as well, and that puts things in perspective when it comes to Fitz's dollar value.  People seem to be operating under old information when it comes to the amount of money starting QB's should be making.

[SAR I]

3 hours ago, slats said:

This guy beats bottom feeders. It's what he does. He takes what he's given, and nothing more. I understand hating Geno, but the idea that Fitzpatrick is potentially a postseason/championship QB is ridiculous. 

I like Fitzpatrick as a leader and clearly he's better than anyone else on the roster, but I look at it this way:

We aren't winning anything in 2016.  The AFC East is a race to 2019, to see which team is built properly and poised to make a run on the day that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick retire.  Any player on the Jets roster today that is not going to be here in 2019 is not part of the solution.  Ryan Fitzpatrick might get us to 8 wins this year, but he's not going to be in the NFL in 2019.  In the end I'd rather see one of the young kids get a shot this season because if we're not the AFC East team with the best QB in 2019, it's all a waste of time.

SAR I

[dbatesman]

2 hours ago, Matt39 said:

The Jets have a ton of money locked into older players. Everyone who wanted Idzik gone cant be pushing for the Jets to play a younger QB who probably still sucks. If the idea was to continue to tank they should have never fired the guy who was willing to purge the roster.

Pretty much. Fitzpatrick is the best option for this team, but he's probably only good enough to get us to 8-8 against this schedule. Come 2017, it's just rinse-and-repeat Jets stuff: we hand the reins to Hackenberg, who's a world-historical disaster; all the receivers are old and hurt; we win 4 games; everyone gets fired; the next GM/coach combo inherits the same capped-out pile of crap Idzik did.

[Joe Jets fan]

5 minutes ago, Brand New Jet said:

No.. Just to be crystal clear , we have posters comparing Fitzy to QB's that have ACTUALLY achieved playoffs, playoff wins against good teams.   Fitz doesnt come close to that.  A guy that's had a total of 1 winning season out of 11, played on multiple teams, whose actual stats mirrors that of Geno, doesnt deserve to be compared to ANY QB that actually achieved anything note worthy in the NFL..  

No one here has compared Fitz to any top notch QB's.  Slow down, just because someone compared there strength of schedules last year does not mean they were comparing QB's. 

Also Fitz stats last year were far better then any Geno has ever put up.

 

Everyone that wants Fitz just wants a steady average QB because that is much better then Geno smith.

[j4jets]

3 hours ago, slats said:

Decided to make this its own thread. I came up with these numbers very simply, giving Fitz won/loss credit for the games he appeared in with the Texans in 2014 vs. the ones he didn't. Feel free to parse it further. 

We've spoken a lot about the Jets easy schedule last year, and that's been countered with how well Fitzpatrick performed the year before with the Texans - when he faced an even easier schedule! He was 6-6 against a .437 winning percentage schedule. Teams he actually beat? A winning percentage of .240. Ironically, the only team he beat that year who had a winning record were the 9-7 Buffalo Bills.

The Texans overall were 9-7 that year, going 3-1 without Fitz in the lineup, beating the 10-5-1 Bengals, and the 10-6 Ravens along the way. 

This guy beats bottom feeders. It's what he does. He takes what he's given, and nothing more. I understand hating Geno, but the idea that Fitzpatrick is potentially a postseason/championship QB is ridiculous. 

Damn! That was a brutal K.O. 

[AFJF]

6 minutes ago, Brand New Jet said:

No.. Just to be crystal clear , we have posters comparing Fitzy to QB's that have ACTUALLY achieved playoffs, playoff wins against good teams.   Fitz doesnt come close to that.  A guy that's had a total of 1 winning season out of 11, played on multiple teams, whose actual stats mirrors that of Geno, doesnt deserve to be compared to ANY QB that actually achieved anything note worthy in the NFL..  

I'm in the camp with those who feel games are won and lost as a team, so telling me Trent Dilfer has more SB wins than Dan Marino doesn't do much for me.

As I've said in the past, following that thought process, bringing Tebow back would be brilliant since it would give the Jets a QB with a playoof win who is still in his prime.

[Brand New Jet]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I don't care what my fellow "backers" have written.  The kind of false hope we had with Pennington for years was that he was a franchise QB.  Not one single Fitzy supporter (that I currently don't have on ignore) has ever suggest Fitz is a franchise guy.  That would be lunacy.  He's merely the best option we have access to at this time, for 2016.  That, in my view, is undeniable. 

Those who think Geno is an equal or better option are the ones with false hope, because they're operating purely in hypotheticals and are living in a fantasy world.  They seem to think all it takes to make a QB a star is a good OC, weapons, a solid O-Line and everyone staying healthy. 

Exactly.. Fitzy is not a franchise guy. Pennington MADE PLAYOFFS and WON PLAYOFFS ..  Fitzy is not a top tier starter.  Fitzy more like one rung or just on par with a back-up QB based on his record.   False hope is thinking that Fitzy is going to WIN against teams with winning seasons last year and with Winning the same talent they had a year ago..   When it's clearly been shown, based on his past record that he feasts on bad teams.    So, no.. that's a lot of people have been saying.   That Fitzy doesnt deserve to be balking at 15 Million guaranteed on a 8mil/year over 3 years contract.       Like I said, I'm impartial but Fitz is not seeing his true value.    He keeps focusing on his perceived worth to the Jets.    I say it's time to move on. I hope they dont offer him a penny more.    

 

 

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Pretty much. Fitzpatrick is the best option for this team, but he's probably only good enough to get us to 8-8 against this schedule. Come 2017, it's just rinse-and-repeat Jets stuff: we hand the reins to Hackenberg, who's a world-historical disaster; all the receivers are old and hurt; we win 4 games; everyone gets fired; the next GM/coach combo inherits the same capped-out pile of crap Idzik did.

And then billions of years later the sun explodes, proving once and for all that life is meaningless. 

[Awesumtenor]

37 minutes ago, AFJF said:

I don't believe he prefers Geno and is still offering Fitz more than any other team in the NFL.  That would be beyond idiotic.

Not overpaying is a condition that should apply to any player, not just Fitz, that's just spending wisely.  

Bowles has said many times that any player can win any job at any time.  Best player plays.  None of this is exclusive to Fitz, and tells us a lot about Geno never getting the job back after being cleared to play after week 2.  If he was the better player, Bowles wouldn't have benched him for 14 weeks.

Not hard to figure out... in Fitzpatrick, Bowles had a quarterback who played his best ball over his career in Chan Gailey's system and did not have to learn it versus Geno who was learning the same system and while he looked good running plays in shells and shorts, he had not faced real competition in the system. 

Despite that, Coaching staff had Geno at the top of the QB roster and it took Geno's getting his jaw broken and the 6 weeks off the field he had to deal with for Fitzpatrick get the starting nod. I concur he jumped on the opportunity making it difficult to bench him when Geno was healthy but don't get it twisted... every complaint about Geno's level of play, his bonehead throws, etc has showed up consistently in Fitz's play over the 11 years he has had in the league. Statistically, they are essentially the same guy, except Fitz has been up and down longer. They both can look like world beaters for a while and then revert to form at the worst possible time; they both are careless with the football; Fitz in addition to picks, averages ~6 fumbles per year and loses more than his team recovers. Fitz throws touchdowns on 4.4% of his throws and picks on 3.3%; Geno has thrown touchdowns on 3.2% of his throws and picks on 4.3%.

Geno is younger, cheaper, more athletic and does have more upside and greater risk; if Fitz were as much better than Geno as some here think, he'd be in Denver...or would never have gotten shipped out of Houston in the first place. It would be one thing if just the Jets were seeing him this way... but every single team in the NFL regardless of quarterback situation sees him that way. Telling, that is...

[Rangers9]

Actually Fitz played well for the Texans. He was only there for 3 months when O'Brien named him the starting Qb in June. The team started off at 2-0. Most of the games he started in and lost were close games. He kept his team competitive even though they were not expected to win in 2014 since the team won only 2 games in 2013. His stats were very good too like a 63% completion rate, 17 Tds to 8 picks, a 95 rating. Kind of hard to criticize that unless you're looking to find things. 

[AFJF]

3 minutes ago, Awesumtenor said:

Not hard to figure out... in Fitzpatrick, Bowles had a quarterback who played his best ball over his career in Chan Gailey's system and did not have to learn it versus Geno who was learning the same system and while he looked good running plays in shells and shorts, he had not faced real competition in the system. 

Despite that, Coaching staff had Geno at the top of the QB roster and it took Geno's getting his jaw broken and the 6 weeks off the field he had to deal with for Fitzpatrick get the starting nod. I concur he jumped on the opportunity making it difficult to bench him when Geno was healthy but don't get it twisted... every complaint about Geno's level of play, his bonehead throws, etc has showed up consistently in Fitz's play over the 11 years he has had in the league. Statistically, they are essentially the same guy, except Fitz has been up and down longer. They both can look like world beaters for a while and then revert to form at the worst possible time; they both are careless with the football; Fitz in addition to picks, averages ~6 fumbles per year and loses more than his team recovers. Fitz throws touchdowns on 4.4% of his throws and picks on 3.3%; Geno has thrown touchdowns on 3.2% of his throws and picks on 4.3%.

Geno is younger, cheaper, more athletic and does have more upside and greater risk; if Fitz were as much better than Geno as some here think, he'd be in Denver...or would never have gotten shipped out of Houston in the first place. It would be one thing if just the Jets were seeing him this way... but every single team in the NFL regardless of quarterback situation sees him that way. Telling, that is...

I wonder why Bowles handed the starting job for 2016 to Fitz back in January.

[Brand New Jet]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

People seem to be operating under old information when it comes to the amount of money starting QB's should be making.

I understand. But there are those who feel that Fitzy is not a starter or is only slightly better than Geno.     You pay rookies on potential..   But veterans that's never made playoffs, have been journeymen on multiple teams, that have only amassed a total of 1 winning season DONT DESERVE to be PAID more than 8mil/year.    That's essentially the offer made to him.   For a lot of people it's not about Geno vs Fitz.    It's that some of us dont see that much Value in Fitz, and see him as being greedy or totally clueless as to his worth. .  He's trying to cash in and I hope the Jets move on from him...

[Awesumtenor]

1 hour ago, AFJF said:

 

[Awesumtenor]

2 minutes ago, AFJF said:

I wonder why Bowles handed the starting job for 2016 to Fitz back in January.

Calculated risk to get him to sign... all things considered, probably premature

[Brand New Jet]

9 minutes ago, Joe Jets fan said:

No one here has compared Fitz to any top notch QB's.  Slow down, just because someone compared there strength of schedules last year does not mean they were comparing QB's. 

Also Fitz stats last year were far better then any Geno has ever put up.

 

Everyone that wants Fitz just wants a steady average QB because that is much better then Geno smith.

And some of us would rather not pay for Mediocrity that never makes Playoffs.   We would rather See what Geno Smith has if the alternative is another Mediocre season with no playoffs.     As much as we like to think, we have seen the totality of Geno's talents, we havent.    I am not saying Geno will be so much better or will make playoffs,  But I would take that (at the asking price of Fitpatrick) then to overpay for Fitz and get the stability of Mediocrity.

 

Anyways, thanks for the discourse.  I have to go now.. will be back on later hopefully

[AFJF]

2 minutes ago, Awesumtenor said:

Calculated risk to get him to sign... all things considered, probably premature

Gave him the leverage he needed to hold out for starter money.  

Should've said Geno has a shot to win the job and create a sense of urgency for Fitz to get in to camp.

That being said, I hope Fitz signs his deal and eventually loses the job to one of the kids.

 

[JustInFudge]

3 hours ago, Matt39 said:

The Jets have a ton of money locked into older players. Everyone who wanted Idzik gone cant be pushing for the Jets to play a younger QB who probably still sucks. If the idea was to continue to tank they should have never fired the guy who was willing to purge the roster.

Well, my idea wouldnt be to tank per say but if it ended that way and the Jets got a shot at Watson...that would be groovy.  

Personally, I dont see much of a difference in the W and L column between Geno and Fitz.  The offense might be better with Fitz but there is also a chance its better with Geno.  And there is also a chance even if he's not better, that the Jets arent really any worse off from W/L perspective.

I like those chances more than I like wading through another year of mediocrity.  Good but not good enough.  Bad but not bad enough.  I'm over that sh*t.

 

[Big Blocker]

34 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Chad Pennington had a great first season when he threw 22 TDs and 4 INTs as a starter.

After that one magical season, he went 80 TD's/60 INTs.

Meh.

 

 

My big gripe with Pennington other than the quick decline he experienced in production was he could not stay on the field.  Your starting Qb isn't doing you much good standing on the sidelines waving a towel with his left arm while his right is in  a sling.

[ylekram]

27 minutes ago, Joe Jets fan said:

No one here has compared Fitz to any top notch QB's.  Slow down, just because someone compared there strength of schedules last year does not mean they were comparing QB's. 

Also Fitz stats last year were far better then any Geno has ever put up.

 

Everyone that wants Fitz just wants a steady average QB because that is much better then Geno smith.

intelligent poster - "didn't the patriots have the same soft schedule as the jets last year"?

brand new moron -" how dare you compare Fitzpatrick to tom brady"

[AFJF]

21 minutes ago, Brand New Jet said:

And some of us would rather not pay for Mediocrity that never makes Playoffs.   We would rather See what Geno Smith has if the alternative is another Mediocre season with no playoffs.     As much as we like to think, we have seen the totality of Geno's talents, we havent.    I am not saying Geno will be so much better or will make playoffs,  But I would take that (at the asking price of Fitpatrick) then to overpay for Fitz and get the stability of Mediocrity.

 

Anyways, thanks for the discourse.  I have to go now.. will be back on later hopefully

Then why not sign Tebow for vet minimum?

[Sperm Edwards]

3 hours ago, slats said:

His last two seasons have been his best statistically, and have also come against remarkably easy schedules. Fitz fans want to see a QB who has turned the corner after bouncing around a quarter of the league, detractors see a guy who put up decent numbers against weak teams. 

In no way, shape, or form am I calling this the ultimate analysis, just trying to give some context to not one, but two seasons in a row against surprisingly easy schedules. Two years in a row where he put up decent numbers, but won against bad teams and generally lost to good ones. In the Texans' case, two of their three wins against teams with winning records came when Fitz was out of the lineup. Despite the fact that he was actually having his best season ever, his coach benched him before trading him for a conditional 7th rounder. And some people here think 3/$24M is an unfair offer to this guy. 

The win against the team with a winning record (9-7 Buffalo) came thanks to an 80 yd pick 6 by JJ Watt that erased a Fitzpatrick interception, and Bullock going 2/2 in the 4th Q on FGs of 50 and 55 yds. Fitz? 1 TD, 2 INTs, took 3 sacks (2 coming on 3rd & short)... 

[Bleedin Green]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So let me get this straight.  I suggest Fitz is a slightly better version of a QB than Chad Pennington, and everyone loses their minds.  Got it. 

The hate has officially gone too far.

 

Well this part I won't disagree with.  Although in fairness, maybe not so much "better" as he is rather similar in talent, but simply less douchey, less whiny, and (was) less paid.

I'm still not sure he's any better than Orton though. 

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, whodeawhodat said:

I really wont get into this again.  I hope whoever our QB is plays like their hair is on fire and leads us to the playoffs.  If you or anyone wants to discredit what Fitz did for our offense last year, go right ahead.  If you want to make excuses for why watching our offense under Geno was so painful for 2 years, go right ahead.  

 

Go Jets!

So to get this right, if someone does an analysis of Fitzs numbers and you don't like them then it's a case of trying to discredit him.  But it's ok to just blurt out Geno sucks and will or can't ever get better.  

Guess you kind of had the point sail right over your head because find where I'm discrediting Fitz or making excuses for anyone.  

[Matt39]

56 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Pretty much. Fitzpatrick is the best option for this team, but he's probably only good enough to get us to 8-8 against this schedule. Come 2017, it's just rinse-and-repeat Jets stuff: we hand the reins to Hackenberg, who's a world-historical disaster; all the receivers are old and hurt; we win 4 games; everyone gets fired; the next GM/coach combo inherits the same capped-out pile of crap Idzik did.

The Jets always manage to screw it up. 2014 crash and burn was working just fine until Captain Rex wanted to learn how to win. We go 2-14 that year and we're sitting with Mariotta or Jameis.

[faba]

The sad part of this all is both sides ripping apart the other QB whether Fitz or Geno- tells you about the state of our QB situation

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, dbatesman said:

Pretty much. Fitzpatrick is the best option for this team, but he's probably only good enough to get us to 8-8 against this schedule. Come 2017, it's just rinse-and-repeat Jets stuff: we hand the reins to Hackenberg, who's a world-historical disaster; all the receivers are old and hurt; we win 4 games; everyone gets fired; the next GM/coach combo inherits the same capped-out pile of crap Idzik did.

So true... but it really goes more like this:

 

[Jetsfan80]

13 minutes ago, Bleedin Green said:

Well this part I won't disagree with.  Although in fairness, maybe not so much "better" as he is rather similar in talent, but simply less douchey, less whiny, and (was) less paid.

I'm still not sure he's any better than Orton though. 

Well given that I was in support of the Jets bringing in Orton had he not retired abruptly, I'm OK with that.

[56mehl56]

1 hour ago, AFJF said:

I wonder why Bowles handed the starting job for 2016 to Fitz back in January.

For the same reason he handed Geno the starting nod entering 2015  he's the incumbent.

[Nostradamus]

At this point if he isn't signed by camp its time to move forward and roll with Geno.....the first 6 games are absolutely brutal so if Fitz isn't ready to go then f**k him.  Let Geno try and surprise by leading the team out of the first 6 with a 500 record.  Bring in a veteran to take over mid season if he can't and see if we can get lucky.  If season is lost early then get the rookie some reps.  Sucks, I was hoping Fitz would be signed as I feel he was the only shot at Playoffs to be honest.  Defense can only carry you so far......but lets see....never know maybe Geno surprises us all.

[56mehl56]

6 minutes ago, Nostradamus said:

At this point if he isn't signed by camp its time to move forward and roll with Geno.....the first 6 games are absolutely brutal so if Fitz isn't ready to go then f**k him.  Let Geno try and surprise by leading the team out of the first 6 with a 500 record.  Bring in a veteran to take over mid season if he can't and see if we can get lucky.  If season is lost early then get the rookie some reps.  Sucks, I was hoping Fitz would be signed as I feel he was the only shot at Playoffs to be honest.  Defense can only carry you so far......but lets see....never know maybe Geno surprises us all.

He hasn't made the playoffs in his 11 year career , why do so many here feel he's the key to the Jets playoff chances.