Jets 2016 Season Predictions Thread

[SAR I]

6 minutes ago, Shadetree said:

Ugh..not an unfair assessment, But I would expect more excitement from you. 

I know this view will change with a 2-0 start, so be irrationally positive, it works for me. 

I'm on the record as stating if the Jets can get out of the gate 2-0 they will have early confidence and can get to 10 wins and eke out a wildcard berth, but I feel that's the only path and it's still slim.

It's far more likely we open 0-2 and crawl to 2-5 and need to go 8-1 the rest of the way and that's not happening.

I'm alarmed by the lack of a running game in the preseason, if the loss of Ivory and Brick means no one fears our ground attack then it's going to be 11 in the box and daring Fitzpatrick to beat them and that's not going to end well.

There is nothing Maccagnan or Bowles will have done wrong to get to 7-9.  It's a function of a rebuild facing an incredibly hard schedule, the sequencing of which could easily put players into resigned cruise control mode by Halloween.  I love the moves we've made, I really think we're on our way to building a consistent winner, but it's Year 2 of recovery from the Idzik disaster and the competition and the sequencing just sucks.

SAR I

 

[Shadetree]

3 minutes ago, SAR I said:

I'm on the record as stating if the Jets can get out of the gate 2-0 they will have early confidence and can get to 10 wins and eke out a wildcard berth, but I feel that's the only path and it's still slim.

It's far more likely we open 0-2 and crawl to 2-5 and need to go 8-1 the rest of the way and that's not happening.

There is nothing Maccagnan or Bowles will have done wrong to get to 7-9.  It's a function of a rebuild facing an incredibly hard schedule, the sequencing of which could easily put players into resigned cruise control mode by Halloween.  I love the moves we've made, I really think we're on our way to building a consistent winner, but it's Year 2 of recovery from the Idzik disaster and the competition and the sequencing just sucks.

SAR I

 

We're beating the f*xking bengals and we're beating the f*xking bills.

2-0 here we come!!!!

see? Irrational exuberance. Feel the power. 

I save "the sky is falling" for October.

[Integrity28]

I'm not sweating the schedule. Every year there is a high percentage of overturn in how good teams are. 

Hardest 2 games on our schedule are there every year. We usually win one of them. Beat the Pats twice, and sky is the limit.

This team has 13-14 win talent. I just don't thing everything will break right. 9 wins is worst case. 14 is best case. I choose 11 as most likely case.

[Smashmouth]

1 hour ago, SAR I said:

7-9

Strength of schedule is harder, 6 of first 9 on the road, razor thin at key positions, key player losses were impact guys, key player additions are injury-prone guys, OL and TE regressed, LB's still questionable in coverage.

And that's before one takes the first team preseason into account with no evidence of a running game, a defense surrendering long drives, and our up and down journeyman quarterback looking more down than up. 

Last year was a fluke for a 4-12 rebuilding team assisted by an easy schedule and gutsy last second wins. This year the expectations and competition is much higher, Jets will be practically out of the playoffs after a terrible start, not feeling it. 

SAR I

SAR I... I would not put too much into SOS at this stage especially as much as the NFL changes from year to year. SOS is always determined at the end of the season. Teams have injuries, teams get beat up in prior games,  just no way to tell what you will be facing from week to week and TBH I think the Jets are a much better team than most people think.  Our Defense will be dominant and our offense will be unpredictable for the first time in years. Get on a roll with creating turnovers and not only do you win games but you build confidence.

[southparkcpa]

After pre season...I'm at 7 and 9.   I can't even pick 7 wins but I know they'll surprise me.  

 

The he win in Pittsburgh when we were 4 and 12 comes to mind about 10 years ago. 

[Smashmouth]

2 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

I'm not sweating the schedule. Every year there is a high percentage of overturn in how good teams are. 

Hardest 2 games on our schedule are there every year. We usually win one of them. Beat the Pats twice, and sky is the limit.

This team has 13-14 win talent. I just don't thing everything will break right. 9 wins is worst case. 14 is best case. I choose 11 as most likely case.

The difference between an 11 win team and a 14 win team is usually a few lucky bounces. You have to have some luck in this league and if you look at Carolina's record last year and actually watched their games they did get a lot of breaks especially when Cam Played terrible and he had some really bad games last year.

[southparkcpa]

12 minutes ago, heymangold said:

i don't get all the talk of a "brutal schedule".  it's really not that difficult.  this team was 2 wins away from being the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs.

 

Bengals - i think they're highly overrated.  meh QB play and no playmakers really outside of AJ Green
Bills - no reason this team shouldn't have beaten them both times last year, their defense has so many injuries
Chiefs - another so-so team with a questionable offense.  Charles isn't 100% and their best LBs are injured
Seahawks - a team with a good defense, but their offense definitely doesn't scare me.
Steelers - first good offense this team will see this season - their defense isn't what it used to be.
Cardinals - pretty much the only team i can't see us beating.
Ravens - no words necessary.  bad OL, bad RBs, bad WRs and a iffy defense.
Browns - no comment necessary
Dolphins - see Browns
Rams - as long as Gurley is stopped, there shouldn't be an issue.
Patriots - always play the pats tough.

Colts - offense has a chance to be good, but OL play is horrid and defense isn't talented.

2 wins away????   That's a lifetime.   The difference between Phil Mickelson and Daniel Summerhays is , seriously, less than 2 strokes per round.  

[southparkcpa]

1 hour ago, ARodJetsFan said:

This team will go as far as Ryan Fitzpatrick can take them.

Our record will be a reflection of how well he does - or doesn't play.

And history tells us that FITZ will shlt the bed.

[RutgersJetFan]

26 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Some 10-6 seasons feel flaccid, malnourished. Last year, for example. Mangini's last year when they went 9-7. 

Well perhaps if you showed some more passion in your relationship with the season; maybe cooked it dinner once in a while and displayed you cared about the season's needs every now and then, you wouldn't have such a hard time getting it up for games. 

[joewilly12]

1 minute ago, southparkcpa said:

And history tells us that FITZ will shlt the bed.

Better hope not or it will get real U-G-L-Y here.

[Integrity28]

9 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

Better hope not or it will get real U-G-L-Y here.

No , it'll be the same 3-5 people that have made it unreadable the past 4 months, just continuing with their ass-dragging.

[Lupz27]

42 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

care for a little wager on Fitz throwing more than 30 TD's barring Injury ?

Also with real WR's like Peake and Anderson who know how to adjust to deep balls Im thinking you will see a nice amount of deep passes completed. Devin Smith SUCKS and IMO will not be a member of this team more than a few years with these new additions who can actually run routes and catch the football in traffic.

I'd love to wager.

[DetroitRed]

Went with 9-7.

 

Our Oline , if healthy,  will be ok.  Run blocking is the biggest concern.  But the line is not terrible , as some suggest

[Gastineau Lives]

One prediction:

The Seattle game is a win. Feel free to change your other predictions based on this information. I look forward to your edits.

[Warfish]

2 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

This. 

11-5?  Pure fantasy IMO.  No chance we're that much better than last year vs. a stronger schedule.  Even I can't see Fitz winning 11 games.

[Ben Had]

Pats 10-6

Bills 8-8

Jets 7-9

Fins 6-10

[SAR I]

1 hour ago, Smashmouth said:

SAR I... I would not put too much into SOS at this stage especially as much as the NFL changes from year to year. SOS is always determined at the end of the season. Teams have injuries, teams get beat up in prior games,  just no way to tell what you will be facing from week to week and TBH I think the Jets are a much better team than most people think.  Our Defense will be dominant and our offense will be unpredictable for the first time in years. Get on a roll with creating turnovers and not only do you win games but you build confidence.

Last year we played 4 tough games on the road and lost all 4 of them:

@NE, @OAK, @HOU, @BUF

And not only did we lose those games, but we weren't really in them, we were manhandled on the road against a decent opponent.

Now let's look at this year's tough road games:

@BUF, @KC, @PIT, @ARI, @NE

Could there be a tougher road schedule in the NFL?  And those first 4 killers happen in the first 6 weeks!

...and this is just one datapoint, but it's the one that concerns me the most.  I can't imagine this team as currently constituted winning more than 2 of those road games, it's why I feel the only path to the playoffs is a 2-0 start.  And, of course, those 2 games happen in a 4 day period with a starting O and D that look anything but prepared and jelled for this crucial week.

SAR I

[Snell41]

Regardless of schedule this is a 6-8 win team. No way Fitz repeats his fluke season, goes back to his world of mediocrity and probably doesn't make it through a season.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[heymangold]

1 hour ago, southparkcpa said:

2 wins away????   That's a lifetime.   The difference between Phil Mickelson and Daniel Summerhays is , seriously, less than 2 strokes per round.  

yes - if they beat the bills both times, which they no doubt could/should have, they would have been the #1 seed.  i don't find that too outlandish.

[SAR I]

15 minutes ago, heymangold said:

yes - if they beat the bills both times, which they no doubt could/should have, they would have been the #1 seed.  i don't find that too outlandish.

That's last year with last year's schedule.

Even if you believe this team has the same talent as last year (I don't, but different conversation) for all intents and purposes we open the season in the playoffs:

CIN (12 Win AFC North Champion)

@BUF (Beat us soundly 2x)

@KC (11 Win Wildcard)

SEA (10 Win Wildcard)

@PIT (10 Win Wildcard)

@ARI (13 Win AFC North Champion)

5 out of 6 games against playoff teams, 1 of the games against a team that owned us and it's their nationally televised home opener on the road with 2 days rest.

Like I said, you want the 2016 Jets to be a playoff team?  They already are.  They open the year with 6 straight playoff games and have to win 3 of them.  Let's see if they can.

SAR I

 

[Jetster]

12 minutes ago, heymangold said:

yes - if they beat the bills both times, which they no doubt could/should have, they would have been the #1 seed.  i don't find that too outlandish.

Good point. Devin Smith fumble for 6 & Bowles brain fart not kicking the FG from an AFC East title.

[The Crusher]

37 minutes ago, Ben Had said:

Pats 10-6

Bills 8-8

Jets 7-9

Fins 6-10

Pats 12-4*

But yeah I agree.  

[flgreen]

2 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

Peake and Smith, yes, but Anderson can catch and had a great catch radius.  IMHO, there will def be a Fitz-Anderson connection.

Eventually I think it will be a Petty - Anderon connection.  Petty has the arm and long ball accuracy to drop it in the basket way up-field

[JohnnyLV]

Wow this is a really tough call. The Jets team is very interesting this year. 

Positives: 

1. Receiving corps upgrade. I think we may have the best receiving group in the NFL now. Anderson and Jalin Marshall might have been our #1 and # 2 receivers two years ago. Greg Salas, David Nelson, Chris Owusu anyone?

2. Special teams Drafting Lachlan Edwards and the addition of all the young players, adding speed and even moves like Howsare instead of Bohannon will make us much more formidable on special teams. We could have a Top 5 unit both kicking off and returning and we will win the field "reversal" battle and hidden yards more often this year. This is actually one of the reasons NE stays competitive, they always have super strong ST, and last year they were a liability for us.

3.Bryce Possibly our future, possibly our near future. I thought he was easily best looking QB in preseason, and before the late hit I thought the game had slowed down for him. That TD pass to Anderson was elite. HUGE arm, fast release, nimble, right personality, smart,  has all the traits of a future starter. For some reason I think Bowles is not a huge fan, but hopefully he sees the light. Far too much Parcells in the guy for my liking. Keeping Marshall and Anderson over Ross is something Bowles argued against I can guarantee

4. Richardson, Wilkerson, Williams (just turned 22!) McClendon Simon Nutty good, nothing else to say

5. Speed on linebacker Greatly upgraded speed at linebacker, promising draft picks in Jenkins and Lee, Henderson This group will help both against TEs and on STs

6. Tromaine Yeah I get that he is a waiver wire UDFA pickup, but try and watch him and read the preseason stuff on him at Seattle. He is what was really missing from this offense. He will be our Leon/Danny Woodhead sparkplug and possibly trturner

Negatives:

1. Schedule It is BRUTAL. I do not believe in the Parcells overstated "you are what your record says you are" nonsense, the NFL is cyclical specifically because of the way it is constructed and rotates. Throw in scheduling of the games we have to play that seems almost intentionally EVIL in first 6 games and it will be tough to overcome

2. Fitzpatrick Bowles loves him, many here think he is awesome and had the "best year of any Jets QB" but I think he stinks. He stunk in preseason really badly. And he has historically been terrible against good playoff teams with solid defenses, horrible might be more accurate. And 5 of our first 6 games are against exactly these teams. He does not have the ability to utilize the mismatches that Anderson and Marshall will have and will force the ball to Decker and Brandon like last year. Despite his Harvard education, he makes terrible decisions, and checks down almost immediately which pads his stats against blitzes and sack avoidance, but leads to lots of failed drives and turnovers. Remember he was among the leaders in interceptions last year, but people ignore it because of the 32 TDs. Bowles loves him though.

3. OL "Makeshift" would be a compliment. We cannot run behind this aging ineffective OL. Only chance we have is spread and LOTS of passing.

4. OL depth Um, yeah we have none. If Mangold and or Clady go down we are in worst OL in the NFL territory. Preview of the 2017 Jets NFL draft: OL CB TE DE/OLB (no other positions will be on our board. We could draft 4 or 5 OL next year)

5. DBs Shaky, very shaky despite all the money we spent last year. Revis needs to play all world and Burris and Williams need to magically find it because Skrine is a nickel. No depth.

6. Bowles Jury still out on him. Not sure he is guy to find right balance for this team. We will need to win some games 31-28. He will stick with Fitz too long.

I think we will ultimately have a fun and exciting season, but not initially.

We are weak at OL, CB and QB, which might actually be the three most important positional groups in football. We are very strong at DL, but it is not a rushing the QB DL. Teams will pass on us a lot. And have success. Bowles will stubbornly start Fitz, and our first 6 games are almost unfair.

So, we start 1-5 (maybe even 0-6). At that point, Mac has the leverage to force Bowles to start Petty. Our back end schedule is not too bad and Petty goes 8-2, winning 6 of last 7, and we finish 9-7 and miss the playoffs, but are poised to build a long term winning team.

If Fitz can somehow get us to 3-3 in the first 6 games, we might be able to sneak in Playoffs at 10-6 but don't see it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[flgreen]

1 hour ago, southparkcpa said:

2 wins away????   That's a lifetime.   The difference between Phil Mickelson and Daniel Summerhays is , seriously, less than 2 strokes per round.  

The 2 wins could have been, and should have been Buffalo and Buffalo.

[Jetster]

19 minutes ago, SAR I said:

That's last year with last year's schedule.

Even if you believe this team has the same talent as last year (I don't, but different conversation) for all intents and purposes we open the season in the playoffs:

CIN (12 Win AFC North Champion)

@BUF (Beat us soundly 2x)

@KC (11 Win Wildcard)

SEA (10 Win Wildcard)

@PIT (10 Win Wildcard)

@ARI (13 Win AFC North Champion)

5 out of 6 games against playoff teams, 1 of the games against a team that owned us and it's their nationally televised home opener on the road with 2 days rest.

Like I said, you want the 2016 Jets to be a playoff team?  They already are.  They open the year with 6 straight playoff games and have to win 3 of them.  Let's see if they can.

SAR I

 

Buffalo beat us SOUNDLY 2 Xs? Seriously, you have a much different definition of soundly. Jets couldn't finish in Buffalo but winning 6 games in a row in today's NFL is very difficult. So many things have to go your way.

Jets definitely should have won the 1st game at home if not for that idiot Bobby April testing out Devin Smith on kick returns. They wasted a GREAT game by Mo Wilkerson. The addition of the threat of both Forte & Powell in the passing game will easily cover the Ivory loss. Gaileys offense has to have that threat from the backfield, we found that out during our 5 game winning streak & the fact that we lost every game Powell couldn't suit up.

[peebag]

3 hours ago, Obrien2Toon said:

Going with 8-8.

Brutal schedule

Brutal Oline

and our qb isnt very good.

But love Mac and the talent and depth he's assembling. Just needs to hit on a QB

This.  Heaven help us if Mangold goes down for any length of time.

[thatboyjack]

8-8

The way I see it, the pass rush will be good, but not "special" enough game in and game out to cover for our DB's. We're going to get beat deep this year, and Cincy will expose that in week 1. The D might tread water if they double the #1 receivers and Revis Island the #2's....who knows. On O, I don't see the run game being strong all season. I think Forte's hammy is going to nag him all season long, and Powell's added touches are going to get him injured. Fitz is no gunslinger....he won't get it done without a ground game.

[SuperBowles1234]

I am very optimistic with this team despite the absolutely brutal schedule. I will go with my usual 10-6 prediction and maybe one more win if they get lucky. I see the Jets just making the playoffs as a wild card team. It will most likely come down to the last game of the season once again vs big fatso Rex Ryan this time  the Jets win at the Meadow lands.
I hope I'm right with this prediction. Keep the faith! Let's go Jets!

[bostonmajet]

3 hours ago, Ben Had said:

Pats 10-6

Bills 8-8

Jets 7-9

Fins 6-10

I would say this is pretty good assesment; if things go well I could see the Jets maybe doing 8-8;or 9-7; I expect the Bills to be more like 7-9. Their schedule is pretty tough too and they are dropping like flies.

[ARodJetsFan]

4 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

And history tells us that FITZ will shlt the bed.

I'm not making any predictions one way or the other.

I think the defense will play well enough to keep us in alot of games and special teams seems to be improved from last year so far.

If Fitzpatrick can up his completion percentage, keep the offense productive and move the chains without turning the ball over, the Jets will probably reach double digit wins.

If he turns the ball over and continues missing wide open receivers like he did in the preseason, it's probably going to be a long season.

Which will be turn out to be reality?

Time will tell.

[SAR I]

3 hours ago, Jetster said:

Buffalo beat us SOUNDLY 2 Xs? Seriously, you have a much different definition of soundly. Jets couldn't finish in Buffalo but winning 6 games in a row in today's NFL is very difficult. So many things have to go your way.

Jets definitely should have won the 1st game at home if not for that idiot Bobby April testing out Devin Smith on kick returns. They wasted a GREAT game by Mo Wilkerson. The addition of the threat of both Forte & Powell in the passing game will easily cover the Ivory loss. Gaileys offense has to have that threat from the backfield, we found that out during our 5 game winning streak & the fact that we lost every game Powell couldn't suit up.

I don't care what the final scores were, Buffalo showed up to play both games, the Jets couldn't get out of their own way.  The first game was classic Ryan, rope-a-dope until we made a mistake and did what was needed to walk away victorious.  Second game their offense toyed with us, moved the ball at will, our offense couldn't get on the field.  We were beaten soundly both times.  Had we won either game, the narrative would have been that we 'got away with one'.

And no matter who is right or to what degree we lost the pair of Buffalo games, this year's team is not as good as last years, we've lost Harrison and Ivory, our two beasts up the middle, and neither has been replaced at this point. Our journeyman quarterback had an amazing season last year but odds are he's going to fall back to old ways, seems impossible to think he can possibly play better than '15 which was a year that did not end in the playoffs.  Special teams, maybe better.  Linebackers, maybe better.  But not better enough to beat the abundance of legitimate elite teams on our schedule this year.

SAR I

 

[Jetster]

26 minutes ago, SAR I said:

I don't care what the final scores were, Buffalo showed up to play both games, the Jets couldn't get out of their own way.  The first game was classic Ryan, rope-a-dope until we made a mistake and did what was needed to walk away victorious.  Second game their offense toyed with us, moved the ball at will, our offense couldn't get on the field.  We were beaten soundly both times.  Had we won either game, the narrative would have been that we 'got away with one'.

And no matter who is right or to what degree we lost the pair of Buffalo games, this year's team is not as good as last years, we've lost Harrison and Ivory, our two beasts up the middle, and neither has been replaced at this point. Our journeyman quarterback had an amazing season last year but odds are he's going to fall back to old ways, seems impossible to think he can possibly play better than '15 which was a year that did not end in the playoffs.  Special teams, maybe better.  Linebackers, maybe better.  But not better enough to beat the abundance of legitimate elite teams on our schedule this year.

SAR I

 

I respect your opinion, I just disagree & feel that Clady if he stays healthy is an upgrade over Dbrick. Forte fits Chans offense way better than oven mitts Ivory who despite 1000 yards had a mostly down year nicked up to much. The team is in the 2nd year with these coaches & schemes. I think we found a 4th WR in Anderson who will do what Smith couldn't last year which is take some pressure off of Marshall & Decker. I'm very impressed with our punter which should help in field position.

My biggest worry on offense is the right side of our Oline but we only need to find 1 out of the 2 TEs we got in waivers to help out in the blocking, but Forte & Powell are both better blockers in the passing game than Ivory.

On defense it will be all about getting the young LBs up to speed so we can really put some heat on without blowing coverages. Bowles & Chan play preseason close to the vest showing nothing. Jets will start 2-0 and have 10 days to get ready for KC.

 

[southparkcpa]

5 hours ago, heymangold said:

yes - if they beat the bills both times, which they no doubt could/should have, they would have been the #1 seed.  i don't find that too outlandish.

That was last year....  there were at least the same amount of plays that could have gone the other way.  FITZ has shown he is not a closer.

Im fine with him as our QB but I wont bet over/under 8.

[Charlie Brown]

I'm looking for the Jets to repeat last year's record of 10-6. 

Wishful thinking perhaps, but I really like Bowels and this coaching staff's professionalism and I think that not having to coach the coaches matters.