Jets' rebuild hinges on drafting better than previous regimes

[Gas2No99]

Jets' rebuild hinges on drafting better than previous regimes

• 
            Richy Cimini ESPN Staff Writer

 

Whenever Mike Maccagnan discusses his team-building philosophy, the words "build through the draft" invariably come flying out of his mouth. Most general managers feel the same way, but few are able to pull it off. It requires scouting expertise, a clearly defined vision and, yes, some luck.

The moribund New York Jets are selling the youth movement this offseason because the team got run into the ground and they have little choice but to rebuild a talent-starved roster. But there are no guarantees this method will work, and here's the proof:

Leaguewide, only 16.9 percent of the players drafted from 2011 to 2013 (129 of 761) remain with the teams that drafted them, according to research compiled by ESPN Minnesota Vikings reporter Ben Goessling. That's a surprisingly low number, illustrating how difficult it can be to -- cue Maccagnan voice -- build through the draft, develop players and sign them to second contracts.

The Cincinnati Bengals have the most remaining players (10), while six teams have only one apiece. The Jets? They're smack dab in the middle of the league, tied for 16th with four -- Muhammad Wilkerson, Bilal Powell, Sheldon Richardson and Brian Winters. Richardson's immediate future is up in the air, so it could be down to three at any minute.

For now, it's four out out 21 draft picks still on the team -- a 19-percent success rate, slightly above the league average.

Maccagnan's predecessors, John Idzik and Mike Tannenbaum, have taken a lot of criticism for their draft failures, but not many teams knocked it out of the park during this three-year window. It wasn't just a Jets thing, but it's one of the main reasons for the team's current plight. We haven't even mentioned the 2014 draft, which has only four survivors out of 12 picks,

The main takeaway from this statistical analysis is that building through the draft, which sounds great in a news conference, is hardly a cure-all. It must be done effectively and it must be done in conjunction with free agency.

[Beerfish]

If Mac does not 100% nail his 1st two picks as quality starters if not pro bowl caliber in the 1st round he is toast.

[PepPep]

captain obvious indeed. 

But sure I'll play. Drafting a legit Franchise QB is really all that matters- DUH. 

It doesn;t guarantee you a SB- or even playoffs. But once you have that one guy, you can really start to build a team. Otherwise, you are just in constant search for a QB. 

[T0mShane]

This will be a very useful article for the next regime.

[bitonti]

Yeah technically drafting perfectly is the key point in any rebuild plan. And unlike the NBA it's way harder to draft perfectly.  

I still don't believe the "rebuild" is a real thing in this league

Can anyone tell me one situation where a team in the NFL blatantly tanked and it worked out? 

The Browns have been rebuilding since they were founded as an expansion team. All the draft picks in the universe doesn't make that team good and part of it is bad drafting but part of it is always trading down (julio jones) never taking a shot (carson wentz) and forever promising a rebuild that will never ever happen. 

And by the way the rare super good players like Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, John Elway etc who really can make a tank worthwhile can control their fates to a certain extent. Like the Jets could have had Peyton Manning the year Keyshawn went #1 but he decided to stay in school rather than go to NY. 

There's no Lebron James at the end of a tank season in the NFL. And if there were, he might not want to go to NY.

When a team loses, all that happens is a losing program got more losses. And the players that are there got more used to being bad. 

[PepPep]

3 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

If Mac does not 100% nail his 1st two picks as quality starters if not pro bowl caliber in the 1st round he is toast.

What if both of his 3rd rounders turn into Pro Bowlers? Macc should totally get fired for that. 

[jeremy2020]

Thanks for the hot take, Rich. They need to draft better than abysmal! ESPN really getting their moneys worth.

[Beerfish]

7 minutes ago, PepPep said:

What if both of his 3rd rounders turn into Pro Bowlers? Macc should totally get fired for that. 

They won't, Todd bowles is making sure of that,  Our gm is hamstrung by a craptaculaR coach.

[jetrider]

Quote

That's a surprisingly low number, illustrating how difficult it can be to -- cue Maccagnan voice -- build through the draft, develop players and sign them to second contracts.

Keywords: develop players. A huge problem.

Bowles needs dozens of gift-wrapped superstars to appear beneath the Christmas tree that are instant HOF material right out of the blister pack.

Then hopefully he can win with the few he doesn't ruin.

[SickJetFan]

uhm so he uses a small dataset 2011-2013 to prove his hypothesis?  which btw includes your 5-7 rounders. 

[JohnnyLV]

41 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Yeah technically drafting perfectly is the key point in any rebuild plan. And unlike the NBA it's way harder to draft perfectly.  

I still don't believe the "rebuild" is a real thing in this league

Can anyone tell me one situation where a team in the NFL blatantly tanked and it worked out? 

The Browns have been rebuilding since they were founded as an expansion team. All the draft picks in the universe doesn't make that team good and part of it is bad drafting but part of it is always trading down (julio jones) never taking a shot (carson wentz) and forever promising a rebuild that will never ever happen. 

And by the way the rare super good players like Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, John Elway etc who really can make a tank worthwhile can control their fates to a certain extent. Like the Jets could have had Peyton Manning the year Keyshawn went #1 but he decided to stay in school rather than go to NY. 

There's no Lebron James at the end of a tank season in the NFL. And if there were, he might not want to go to NY.

When a team loses, all that happens is a losing program got more losses. And the players that are there got more used to being bad. 

It semi-worked for Indy but Luck is not elite and the rest of the drafting pretty much blew.

You "rebuild" by finding a franchise QB pure and simple. That said I think a complete purge for the Jets was completely the right thing to do as the veteran talent is so bad, rookies will not be a big dropoff if any.

[Ex-Rex]

44 minutes ago, PepPep said:

captain obvious indeed. 

But sure I'll play. Drafting a legit Franchise QB is really all that matters- DUH. 

It doesn;t guarantee you a SB- or even playoffs. But once you have that one guy, you can really start to build a team. Otherwise, you are just in constant search for a QB. 

I don't think the Jets should draft a QB - especially in the first round - because Hackenberg has got to be allowed to play his way into or out of the starters job. Can't have a second round pick that never sees the field, especially in a year that the GM and HC are given a mulligan due to rebuilding. The best way to do that is with a foundation of solid players AROUND a young QB. Draft OJ Howard, with a trade down to 9-12 or take Adams or Malik Hooker at 6. A QB in the first round is a give up on Hackenberg and Petty and if that is the case then Mac needs to be called on the carpet for an explanation.

[Ex-Rex]

3 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

You "rebuild" by finding a franchise QB pure and simple. That said I think a complete purge for the Jets was completely the right thing to do as the veteran talent is so bad, rookies will not be a big dropoff if any.

The problem here is that the Jets don't know if they have their franchise QB on board already. Can't just quit on Hackenberg because maybe he doesn't look great in practice. Jets have got to use this season to play Hackenberg and or Petty and have them rule themselves out as starting material. Otherwise it puts a bad spin on Maccagnan's drafts and his ability to determine QB talent.

[Integrity28]

1 hour ago, Gas2No99 said:

Jets' rebuild hinges on drafting better than previous regimes

• 
            Richy Cimini ESPN Staff Writer

 

 

lol, excellent

[ASH1962]

Great last 2 points by ExRex. I agree 1000%. To say Hackenberg cannot play is flat out ridiculous until he proves it one way or the other on the actual regular season field of play. I do not want to hear any preseason nonsense because that proves absolutely nothing. Let him prepare with the first team and go out and play. To draft yet another questionable QB project that can possibly fail with the 6th pick would be devastating to this franchise and set us back probably another 1-5 years. I also want to see us draft an offensive star and speed players this year. We have reached for defense seemingly forever yet it still stinks (Bubba Gump Bowltite), it is time to infuse some speed and offensive talent to this roster. Maybe in later rounds find someone to run a g-d punt or kick back?

Hackenberg was a 2nd round pick. Mac obviously saw something and believes he has the tools to be a successful NFL QB or else why take him so high last year? I do not think Mac is that incompetent, unlike his HC. I for one refuse to bury him (Hackenberg) without on the field proof. If he can't play, fine, failed experiment and we move on, but if he can play.....

[rangerous]

1 hour ago, Gas2No99 said:

Jets' rebuild hinges on drafting better than previous regimes

• 
            Richy Cimini ESPN Staff Writer

 

Whenever Mike Maccagnan discusses his team-building philosophy, the words "build through the draft" invariably come flying out of his mouth. Most general managers feel the same way, but few are able to pull it off. It requires scouting expertise, a clearly defined vision and, yes, some luck.

The moribund New York Jets are selling the youth movement this offseason because the team got run into the ground and they have little choice but to rebuild a talent-starved roster. But there are no guarantees this method will work, and here's the proof:

Leaguewide, only 16.9 percent of the players drafted from 2011 to 2013 (129 of 761) remain with the teams that drafted them, according to research compiled by ESPN Minnesota Vikings reporter Ben Goessling. That's a surprisingly low number, illustrating how difficult it can be to -- cue Maccagnan voice -- build through the draft, develop players and sign them to second contracts.

The Cincinnati Bengals have the most remaining players (10), while six teams have only one apiece. The Jets? They're smack dab in the middle of the league, tied for 16th with four -- Muhammad Wilkerson, Bilal Powell, Sheldon Richardson and Brian Winters. Richardson's immediate future is up in the air, so it could be down to three at any minute.

For now, it's four out out 21 draft picks still on the team -- a 19-percent success rate, slightly above the league average.

Maccagnan's predecessors, John Idzik and Mike Tannenbaum, have taken a lot of criticism for their draft failures, but not many teams knocked it out of the park during this three-year window. It wasn't just a Jets thing, but it's one of the main reasons for the team's current plight. We haven't even mentioned the 2014 draft, which has only four survivors out of 12 picks,

The main takeaway from this statistical analysis is that building through the draft, which sounds great in a news conference, is hardly a cure-all. It must be done effectively and it must be done in conjunction with free agency.

cimini is a moron.  at first glance it sounds like he's saying that 17% of the players drafted from 2011 to 2013 are still in the league but in reality he's saying they're with the teams that drafted them.  well, duh.  if a drafted player is any good he'll be looking for a money contract at the end of his rookie contract and no team can afford more than a handful of big money deals.  look at wilk.  10 wilk contracts would bust the salary cap wide open so it just can be done.  the only way to balance the cap and still field a good team is by drafting well.

[kelly]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

This will be a very useful article for the next THREE  regimeS.

FIXED ^ ^ 

 

 

 

cheers ~ ~ 

[JohnnyLV]

24 minutes ago, Ex-Rex said:

The problem here is that the Jets don't know if they have their franchise QB on board already. Can't just quit on Hackenberg because maybe he doesn't look great in practice. Jets have got to use this season to play Hackenberg and or Petty and have them rule themselves out as starting material. Otherwise it puts a bad spin on Maccagnan's drafts and his ability to determine QB talent.

I agree a million percent. 

I think the Hack bashing is ridiculous. No one knows what we have in him and sitting him last year is not an indicator of anything- we were told that was the plan all along.

To me:

Hack has ideal size and athleticism: cannot be taught

Hack has an Elite arm..cannot be taught

Hack has an Elite release: cannot be taught

Hack is a very intelligent QB: cannot be taught

Appears to be likable and have leadership qualities: cannot be taught

Appears to be very hard worker: required

Already understands pro concepts: provides head start on learning new offense

Has terrible footwork: CAN be taught. Should be noted that he is capable of making elite throws flat footed and off back foot which is both required in the NFL and difficult to teach. Dan Marino thought this was actually one of the most important characteristics of a franchise QB

Needs to have better pocket awareness: CAN be learned from experience (ie playing)

Needs better accuracy: can be improved by learning better footwork, understand the offense and experience all of which Hack is capable of.

I think there is a decent chance we have an Elite, franchise QB already on our roster. He just needs a chance and lots and lots and lots of reps.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[August]

Not just drafting well but player development too. 

[Bleedin Green]

In other breaking news, the players should perform better on the field, and the coaches do a better job coaching.

[Bleedin Green]

1 hour ago, SickJetFan said:

uhm so he uses a small dataset 2011-2013 to prove his hypothesis?  which btw includes your 5-7 rounders. 

It's actually even more comical when you consider that of all those players, the only ones who could still be on their rookie contracts are the 2013 first rounders, going into their final year only if the 5th-year option was picked up.  So this actually says nothing to the quality of players picked, but rather the retention rate of them.  That says absolutely nothing to the contributions they made to their respective teams over their course of their time there.

[dbatesman]

1 hour ago, Ex-Rex said:

I don't think the Jets should draft a QB - especially in the first round - because Hackenberg has got to be allowed to play his way into or out of the starters job.

Great call

[SickJetFan]

1 minute ago, Bleedin Green said:

It's actually even more comical when you consider that of all those players, the only ones who could still be on their rookie contracts are the 2013 first rounders, going into their final year only if the 5th-year option was picked up.  So this actually says nothing to the quality of players picked, but rather the retention rate of them.  That says absolutely nothing to the contributions they made to their respective teams over their course of their time there.

let not forget that 99.999999% of all NFL players come into the league via the draft sooooooo kinda hard not to succeed w/o the draft

[AFJF]

Deon Simon was Mike Maccagnan's first 7th round pick as the Jets GM.  When all is said and done, he may very well be better than 18 of the 19 players John Idzik drafted in 2 years.  I think it's safe to say the Jets upgraded.

[varjet]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

If Mac does not 100% nail his 1st two picks as quality starters if not pro bowl caliber in the 1st round he is toast.

I think the safest path for Macc is to take in the first 2 rounds players that are virtually shoe ins to be at least very good players.  

That puts the WRs, Adams and Howard toward the top of the round 1 list.  

It makes it hard to take a QB.  With McCown, they should function there.  

Round 2 SHOULD be easier.  Lots of good players.

The Jets need, at a minimum 2 (if not 3) safeties and a CB in this draft.

[section314]

1 hour ago, Ex-Rex said:

I don't think the Jets should draft a QB - especially in the first round - because Hackenberg has got to be allowed to play his way into or out of the starters job. Can't have a second round pick that never sees the field, especially in a year that the GM and HC are given a mulligan due to rebuilding. The best way to do that is with a foundation of solid players AROUND a young QB. Draft OJ Howard, with a trade down to 9-12 or take Adams or Malik Hooker at 6. A QB in the first round is a give up on Hackenberg and Petty and if that is the case then Mac needs to be called on the carpet for an explanation.

Which is exactly why it's not going to happen.

[SMC]

Maybe there just isn't enough good players to draft.

[jeremy2020]

48 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Deon Simon was Mike Maccagnan's first 7th round pick as the Jets GM.  When all is said and done, he may very well be better than 18 of the 19 players John Idzik drafted in 2 years.  I think it's safe to say the Jets upgraded.

So many people don't realize that 2% success just like 2% Milk is better than 1%

[MDL_JET]

2 hours ago, Ex-Rex said:

I don't think the Jets should draft a QB - especially in the first round - because Hackenberg has got to be allowed to play his way into or out of the starters job. Can't have a second round pick that never sees the field, especially in a year that the GM and HC are given a mulligan due to rebuilding. The best way to do that is with a foundation of solid players AROUND a young QB. Draft OJ Howard, with a trade down to 9-12 or take Adams or Malik Hooker at 6. A QB in the first round is a give up on Hackenberg and Petty and if that is the case then Mac needs to be called on the carpet for an explanation.

If they take a QB in the 1st, why can't Hack still play? Cut Petty. Let Hack and the pick battle it out. I don't want them to draft one but I won't hate it since this team is desperate for one. Doubling your chances, no? Hack starts and fails, go to the draft pick. Or vice versa. Although this would put Bowles in the worst position. 

They're definitely gonna draft one at some point. Petty needs to be replaced.

[Tinstar]

26 minutes ago, section314 said:

Which is exactly why it's not going to happen.

And is also the line of thinking that left us with Geno Smith, and have us begging that Bryce Petty or can turn into what most of us suspect he never will if we're honest with ourselves .  I'm a Trubisky supporter, and proud to be, but  I have more respect for fans who are willing to spend their 1st round pick on the like of Mahomes than for some of you wanting a safety or a wr  when we have no QB in a league where you have no chance without one .

Many here accuse this HC of playing scared not to lose football, but the irony is taking a QB is taking the chance at winning, instead of playing it safe by taking your BPA at a position that will make you look like tarzan while playing like jane  .

[section314]

1 hour ago, Tinstar said:

And is also the line of thinking that left us with Geno Smith, and have us begging that Bryce Petty or can turn into what most of us suspect he never will if we're honest with ourselves .  I'm a Trubisky supporter, and proud to be, but  I have more respect for fans who are willing to spend their 1st round pick on the like of Mahomes than for some of you wanting a safety or a wr  when we have no QB in a league where you have no chance without one .

Many here accuse this HC of playing scared not to lose football, but the irony is taking a QB is taking the chance at winning, instead of playing it safe by taking your BPA at a position that will make you look like tarzan while playing like jane  .

I don't want any of these guys because I believe that Hackenberg is better than all of them. More importantly, I'm pretty sure Macc thinks that way too. We took our QB last year. This year Hack will start to show why Macc picked him, and we will start building a team around him . 

[peebag]

2 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

So many people don't realize that 2% success just like 2% Milk is better than 1%

no, it just has 1% more butterfat.....

[jets rooter]

Lets face it,You are only as good as your scouts and front burgh, Checkout the patriots, etc.

[Tinstar]

45 minutes ago, section314 said:

I don't want any of these guys because I believe that Hackenberg is better than all of them. More importantly, I'm pretty sure Macc thinks that way too. We took our QB last year. This year Hack will start to show why Macc picked him, and we will start building a team around him . 

If any 2 should touch as in agreement, so shall a thing be established .  On this we agree, and as it is written, so let it be done  .

[section314]

34 minutes ago, Tinstar said:

If any 2 should touch as in agreement, so shall a thing be established .  On this we agree, and as it is written, so let it be done  .

.