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Quarterback draft stuff

Miss Lonelyhearts

By Miss Lonelyhearts
in NY Jets Forum

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Miss Lonelyhearts

Miss Lonelyhearts

Posted
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2003 1 Carson Palmer 2003 7 Byron Leftwich
2004 1 Eli Manning 2004 4 Philip Rivers
2005 1 Alex Smith 2004 11 Ben Roethlisberger
2007 1 JaMarcus Russell 2006 3 Vince Young
2009 1 Matt Stafford 2006 10 Matt Leinart
2010 1 Sam Bradford 2006 11 Jay Cutler
2011 1 Cam Newton 2008 3 Matt Ryan
2012 1 Andrew Luck 2009 5 Mark Sanchez
2012 2 Robert Griffin III 2011 8 Jake Locker
2015 1 Jameis Winston 2011 10 Blaine Gabbert
2015 2 Marcus Mariota 2011 12 Christian Ponder
2016 1 Jared Goff 2012 8 Ryan Tannehill
2016 2 Carson Wentz 2014 3 Blake Bortles
      2017 2 Mitchell Trubisky
      2017 10 Patrick Mahomes II
      2017 12 Deshaun Watson

These are the quarterbacks that have been drafted in the top twelve picks in the last fifteen years. As many of the opening day starters were found here as everywhere else put together, with the latter obviously having an exponentially greater number of busts. The first overall picks and second picks following first pick quarterbacks are broken out on the left. It's pretty striking. Griffin and Bradford got hurt but seemed good otherwise and outside of that you literally had to draft JaMarcus Russell to screw this up. It's a really good investment of draft capital and mostly why I've thought for a while that the cost of obtaining the first pick is less than it should be and soon will be. After the very top the bust rate is significantly higher. It's not clear what to read into this as far as the quarterback we take at 3 because 1-2-3 is without precedent in this sample and I think ever. It probably isn't a good sign for any of these guys if the Browns or Giants decide they'd rather take Barkley or something.

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Sonny Werblin

Sonny Werblin

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4 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Yes, the #1 pick is the best pick to have. And the #2 pick is the second best pick to have. 

 

 

(I think most people know this already) 

Heck, only 2 busts in all QBs taken in the top 4 picks.... Russell and Young. I like the Jet's odds. 

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Lupz27

Lupz27

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5 hours ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:
2003 1 Carson Palmer 2003 7 Byron Leftwich
2004 1 Eli Manning 2004 4 Philip Rivers
2005 1 Alex Smith 2004 11 Ben Roethlisberger
2007 1 JaMarcus Russell 2006 3 Vince Young
2009 1 Matt Stafford 2006 10 Matt Leinart
2010 1 Sam Bradford 2006 11 Jay Cutler
2011 1 Cam Newton 2008 3 Matt Ryan
2012 1 Andrew Luck 2009 5 Mark Sanchez
2012 2 Robert Griffin III 2011 8 Jake Locker
2015 1 Jameis Winston 2011 10 Blaine Gabbert
2015 2 Marcus Mariota 2011 12 Christian Ponder
2016 1 Jared Goff 2012 8 Ryan Tannehill
2016 2 Carson Wentz 2014 3 Blake Bortles
      2017 2 Mitchell Trubisky
      2017 10 Patrick Mahomes II
      2017 12 Deshaun Watson

These are the quarterbacks that have been drafted in the top twelve picks in the last fifteen years. As many of the opening day starters were found here as everywhere else put together, with the latter obviously having an exponentially greater number of busts. The first overall picks and second picks following first pick quarterbacks are broken out on the left. It's pretty striking. Griffin and Bradford got hurt but seemed good otherwise and outside of that you literally had to draft JaMarcus Russell to screw this up. It's a really good investment of draft capital and mostly why I've thought for a while that the cost of obtaining the first pick is less than it should be and soon will be. After the very top the bust rate is significantly higher. It's not clear what to read into this as far as the quarterback we take at 3 because 1-2-3 is without precedent in this sample and I think ever. It probably isn't a good sign for any of these guys if the Browns or Giants decide they'd rather take Barkley or something.

Can you guess what every single one on those QB’s have in common?

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Warfish

Warfish

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Drafting a QB is a risk.

The higher you draft, the higher the investment risk, but the lower the failure risk (in general terms).

We pick #3. 

Two QB's (of five possible/likely first round prospects) may be off the board by the time we pick.

That's where we are.

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KINGDIRK

KINGDIRK

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34 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Drafting a QB is a risk.

The higher you draft, the higher the investment risk, but the lower the failure risk (in general terms).

We pick #3. 

Two QB's (of five possible/likely first round prospects) may be off the board by the time we pick.

That's where we are.

Can you show a similar chart with DE, CBs, OLB, etc to see how many bust?

we get it. The draft is a crap shoot. But it’s a crap shoot regardless of position.

I am 40 and have been watching since 1986. I’ve seen us miss picks before; quite a few lol. 

If we are gonna miss- miss big baby! Roll the dice on a QB, the most important position in sports. 

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Philc1

Philc1

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6 minutes ago, bitonti said:

The point is there might not be 3 blue chip qb in this draft. There might only be 2 or 1.


Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app
 

Maybe not “blue chip” but I think Darnold, Rosen and Allen will all be good.  After that Rudolph and Lauletta can also be good.  None will be “franchise qbs” but good

 

Everyone else will suck

 

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bitonti

bitonti

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Maybe not “blue chip” but I think Darnold, Rosen and Allen will all be good.  After that Rudolph and Lauletta can also be good.  None will be “franchise qbs” but good
 
Everyone else will suck
 
If none of these guys will be franchise qb (and I tend to agree btw) the correct move is to take chubb or Barkley and get a qb next draft or next fa. Edge rusher is the most dire need on the roster if we are being honest.

People are treating this draft as the only opportunity to solve all the teams problems.

Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app

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Warfish

Warfish

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31 minutes ago, KINGDIRK said:

Can you show a similar chart with DE, CBs, OLB, etc to see how many bust?

we get it. The draft is a crap shoot. But it’s a crap shoot regardless of position.

I am 40 and have been watching since 1986. I’ve seen us miss picks before; quite a few lol. 

If we are gonna miss- miss big baby! Roll the dice on a QB, the most important position in sports. 

I think you may have mistaken my post as an argument to not draft a QB.

I'm in favor of drafting a QB at #3.

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Warfish

Warfish

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12 minutes ago, bitonti said:

If none of these guys will be franchise qb (and I tend to agree btw) the correct move is to take chubb or Barkley and get a qb next draft or next fa. Edge rusher is the most dire need on the roster if we are being honest.

People are treating this draft as the only opportunity to solve all the teams problems.

Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app
 

So for two years we heard repeatedly endlessly that this was THE QB Draft Class, a 1983-like class, and the spot to get a QB.

So much so fans were legit angry we didn't totally tank our season. 

So much so that many were glad we passed on Watson because this draft was coming up.

Now....it's such a poor class that even the #3 pick isn't good enough and we should wait, and maybe suck for someone else in 2018, or 2019, or 2020?

People expect the QB position to be solved this draft, yes.  That should be a reasonable expectation.

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HessStation

HessStation

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14 minutes ago, bitonti said:

If none of these guys will be franchise qb (and I tend to agree btw) the correct move is to take chubb or Barkley and get a qb next draft or next fa. Edge rusher is the most dire need on the roster if we are being honest.

People are treating this draft as the only opportunity to solve all the teams problems.

Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app
 

The problem would be that basically nobody agrees with you nor is there ever a predetermined franchise qb minus Andrew Luck and John Elway every 15-20 years.

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bitonti

bitonti

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So for two years we heard repeatedly endlessly that this was THE QB Draft Class, a 1983-like class, and the spot to get a QB.
So much so fans were legit angry we didn't totally tank our season. 
So much so that many were glad we passed on Watson because this draft was coming up.
Now....it's such a poor class that even the #3 pick isn't good enough and we should wait, and maybe suck for someone else in 2018, or 2019, or 2020?
People expect the QB position to be solved this draft, yes.  That should be a reasonable expectation.
People were wrong. this draft is not 1983. There's not 3 hof in this class in fact I don't see any. Barkley and Nelson could get there. The only way these qbs get inside is with a ticket.

Looking back, trubisky Mahomes at Watson will be considered a better crop (and everyone says that qb class was garbage)

Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app

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Scoop24

Scoop24

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Just now, bitonti said:

People were wrong. this draft is not 1983. There's not 3 hof in this class in fact I don't see any. Barkley and Nelson could get there. The only way these qbs get inside is with a ticket.

Looking back, trubisky Mahomes at Watson will be considered a better crop (and everyone says that qb class was garbage)

Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app
 

Lmaoo nobody from class has played a down yet . How would you know ? 

 

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bitonti

bitonti

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The problem would be that basically nobody agrees with you nor is there ever a predetermined franchise qb minus Andrew Luck and John Elway every 15-20 years.
Nobody agrees which one out of the 5 is the best that's a serious problem.

This qb crop is overrated. There will qbs next year and not all of them are from cali bro or big 12

Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app

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bitonti

bitonti

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I still don't get your point. Their "might" be zero blue chip QBs in this draft and their "might" be 3, 4 or even 5 blue chip QBs in this draft.
the Jets have done this analysis far more expertly than anyone here and it's possible they have 3 qbs on their list. Everybody assumes they do. Or that they have to go qb no matter what.


Put it another way there is no A+ qb prospect but there are 2 A- qbs.

My point is that 3 is too high for a B+ prospect, regardless of need. And I suspect that the Jets feel similar

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HessStation

HessStation

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1 minute ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I still don't get your point. Their might be zero blue chip QBs in this draft and their "might" be 3, 4 or even 5 blue chip QBs in this draft.

Bc we wont know until 2-3 years from now we should just keep waiting until we're sure of what we won't ever know. 

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bitonti

bitonti

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I’m talking bout the current class . I don’t u think can’t make HOF claims about either class yet. 
 
The current class has good quality and bad but I guarantee there's not 3 hof in this group and there might not be any

The people who compare it to 1983 are making evaluation as well you just like the prediction.

Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app

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nycdan

nycdan

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11 minutes ago, bitonti said:

The current class has good quality and bad but I guarantee there's not 3 hof in this group and there might not be any

The people who compare it to 1983 are making evaluation as well you just like the prediction.

Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app
 

Well there you have it.  Bit guaranteed it.  We can all go home now.

For every person that 'knows' Rosen is the best QB in the this draft, there is another who knows the same thing about Darnold, and another who knows it about Mayfield (maybe two in Mayfield's case LOL).  For every person that knows each of them will be great, 3 more know they will bust. 

Just because nobody can actually agree on these guys doesn't mean they will all stink, or even that they won't all be good.  We also really don't know diddly about last year's class yet.  In fact, between Winston, Mariota, Goff and Wentz, I'd say they are all putting up at least decent production (no busts there yet). 

God I wish people understood the difference between opinion and certainty.  This is all Joe Namath's fault.

The only thing *I* can guarantee is that no guarantees made in April will mean sh-t in September.  

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KINGDIRK

KINGDIRK

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43 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I think you may have mistaken my post as an argument to not draft a QB.

I'm in favor of drafting a QB at #3.

My bad. Was on the subway when I posted that. I was distracted by the homeless man who was getting ready to defecate in the corner. How exactly did DiBlasio win a 2nd term so easily....

Anyway, for the anti QB fans. Like I said, we can bust on any pick. Whichever QB we take in a few weeks, I am buying their jersey and praying. Every night. 

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