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Jets all in on Jack Conklin


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17 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Jack Conklin's injury history is the reason TEN declined the 5th year option

he missed games this year and looked good in the playoffs - they would let him go (and also the reason why the Jets should stay away) because he's not an ironman type of player. he's always hurt and super prone to concussions 

Dennis Kelly was like their real Right tackle 

What do you think of Joe Thuney?

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21 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

Lol still wishful thinking people. He was a 1st team All-Pro and the 4th best tackle in the league last year. C’mon guys...he isn’t shaking free so stop hurting yourself with these expectations.

Do you think they'll franchise him? That's probably the only way he won't test FA. The Titans chose not to exercise his 5th year option which to me says they were sure if they wanted to keep you. I'm sure they want to keep him now but it would be a mistake IMO not to listen to other teams offers. 

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1 minute ago, bla bla bla said:

Do you think they'll franchise him? That's probably the only way he won't test FA. The Titans chose not to exercise his 5th year option which to me says they were sure if they wanted to keep you. I'm sure they want to keep him now but it would be a mistake IMO not to listen to other teams offers. 

I think it’s a good possibility that either they do FT him or they come to a new deal agreement. If they really like Dennis Kelly then that’s the only other Avenue I think gets Conklin free but it’s a narrow avenue.

gotta think they’d let Logan Ryan walk before they tell Conklin that they aren’t going to pay him more than what they offer.

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33 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Dennis Kelly was like their real Right tackle 

I don't know if I'd go that far, but I think he played about 1/3 of the snaps over the last two.  He is an unrestricted FA with starting experience.  The kind of guy to bring in fairly cheap.  If you can get two good tackles or Edoga turns up, he is a good swing tackle.  If not, you can do worse as a starter.

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50 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

What do you think of Joe Thuney?

Thuney is close to the ideal Gase zone system guard. Long, tall, smart, durable. Knowledge of the division. 

but he's an All Pro and will be paid like it. He and Glasgow will get super huge deals due to youth

We're talking 13+ mil per and 50 guaranteed

Would I be happy if they signed either? Heck yes. Do I expect it? not really

 

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5 hours ago, Kleckineau said:

Just what the Jets need.

A guy with a rubber band knee and concussions.

Titans are letting him walk. Why??

Conklin has played  all 16 games 3 out of his 4 seasons in the nfl

 

Titans are letting him walk because they need to resign Henry and Tannehill 

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16 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

Really don’t see him shaking free. Top OT’s don’t make it to FA.

Different situation.  The titans have to resign Derrick Henry, resign Tannehill and/or sign a big name qb like Rivers 

 

Conklin is going to be the best OT to hit the market in a while

 

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7 hours ago, playtowinthegame said:

Yeah but he's joining Derek Henry, and Ryan Tannehill in free agency. The Titans only get one franchise/transition tag. Someone will break free and hit the open market. Titans obviously won't let Henry go. It's down to Tannehill and Conklin. Who do you think is hitting the open market? Not Tannehill.

Yeah, it's definitely not going to be the guy who couldn't find a starting job last offseason in a year where it looks like Brady, rivers, and Cam Newton will also be free agent quarterbacks, along with Jameis Winston. They're definitely going to lock up Tannehill, and let the premier OT on the market

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1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

Conklin has played  all 16 games 3 out of his 4 seasons in the nfl

 

Titans are letting him walk because they need to resign Henry and Tannehill 

Frankly, if they are smart they will let Derrick Henry hit the market. Running backs just don't get big second contracts as free agents, and whatever they have to match from the market probably won't be higher than the franchise tag value for him. Franchise Conklin, transition tag Tannehill, and pay Henry market-rate. That's my plan if I'm the Titans GM.

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4 hours ago, playtowinthegame said:

They may have 50 million in cap, but Conklin could be the one to test the open market. I don't believe he'll be tagged. Either way I believe the Jets have an opportunity to go after him - will he decide to stay in Tennessee if the money is close? We will see. You can say the same for Brandon Scherff as well as Anthony Castonzo...will these guys want to block for Darnold instead of their incumbent quarterbacks? I think we have a shot. I don't view Dwayne Haskins, Ryan Tannehill, and Jacoby Brissett as guys a lineman would view having more upside than Darnold at this point. At least with Sam Darnold there is a chance he could be a really good quarterback. He's flashed the potential, and needs some blocking to help him become the quarterback he can become - free agent lineman coming here could have ownership in helping Darnold reach his potential. 

There are also different rules for free agency this year.  There is a limit as to how much salary can go up from one year to the next, and it will limit how much of the contract can be bonus money.  It just might not be feasible to keep all three.

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1 hour ago, Doggin94it said:

Yeah, it's definitely not going to be the guy who couldn't find a starting job last offseason in a year where it looks like Brady, rivers, and Cam Newton will also be free agent quarterbacks, along with Jameis Winston. They're definitely going to lock up Tannehill, and let the premier OT on the market

The only quarterback you listed that might be an upgrade from Tannehill is Brady, and he's losing the battle to father time. The fact you even mentioned Jameis Winston as if the Titans would consider that interception machine deserves a buttfumble, but I'll let it slide this time, dog. ;)

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1 hour ago, Doggin94it said:

Frankly, if they are smart they will let Derrick Henry hit the market. Running backs just don't get big second contracts as free agents, and whatever they have to match from the market probably won't be higher than the franchise tag value for him. Franchise Conklin, transition tag Tannehill, and pay Henry market-rate. That's my plan if I'm the Titans GM.

Henry is that rare rb who is worth the second contract.  Once the titans decided to actually make him the featured back and had a qb who could keep defenses honest he dominated in regular season and then went nuts as we all know in the playoffs 

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3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

WR -- we're almost assuredly going to end up starting 1 rookie WR this year, but 2 of them?

How many teams have ever planned - from/through March - on starting 2 rookie WRs, including one found in rounds 3 or 4, as a couple people are proposing as though they're serious plans? If anyone's done it has anyone done it successfully?

Maybe the Steelers the year they drafted Swann and Stallworth?

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4 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

This, 100%.

One can probably bank on a 1st rounder (or even a 2nd rounder) and still be wrong a healthy chunk of the time, but it's at least a legit guess for the former.

WR -- we're almost assuredly going to end up starting 1 rookie WR this year, but 2 of them?

How many teams have ever planned - from/through March - on starting 2 rookie WRs, including one found in rounds 3 or 4, as a couple people are proposing as though they're serious plans? If anyone's done it has anyone done it successfully? If you can even find one team that did this, how many also had a question mark at TE and a slot receiver with the dropsies? Closest I remember is kinda Cincinnati in 2000, but even that wasn't their plan, since they still had starters Pickens and Scott on the roster on draft day (and were armed with the #4 overall pick in a draft with 3 WR prospects with top 10 grades). Wishes aside, even they weren't planning on Dugans or any 3rd rounder being the #2 as a rookie, with another rookie as the #1. The way the draft fell in hindsight, plus Scott breaking his leg after they cut Pickens, was the only reason it played out that way.

I will say it was always great in hindsight that they took the top 2 rated FSU wideouts, who were both busts, and we took the FSU leftover after both of them - Coles - who was probably the best WR in that draft outright (13th WR off the board). Ultra-rare WR draft win for the Jets, but it's worth noting here that Coles - a very successful 3rd round pick, with alleged 4.2 speed at the time - didn't start as a rookie either, and not because we were gushing with #1 type WRs.

A 3rd/4th round rookie starter? Of course it can happen - and does happen at a variety of positions every year - but no competent GM has a serious offseason plan that requires a 3rd round rookie performing adequately at starter level, at a position with a current hole, and as a basis for bypassing starters in free agency a month earlier. Particularly at WR or T or C (as you mention), where it's not unheard of to find eventual starters in those rounds, but it's unusual to find worthwhile rookie starters in those rounds (if there even are any in this particular draft). Still less when, as some have proposed, we also find another starter in that position group from another rookie pick in rounds 1 or 2. 

The OL? 

Left tackle - just 10 of 32 starting LTs were found outside round 1 (and the top 10 picks of of round 2): 

  1. Dion Dawkins (started 11 games as a late 2nd round rookie in 2017);
  2. Taylor Moton (started 0 games as a late 2nd round rookie in 2017); 
  3. Julie'n Davenport (started 4 games as a 4th round rookie in 2017); 
  4. Charles Leno (started 1 game as a 7th round rookie in 2014);
  5. Alejandro Villanueva (started 0 games as an UDFA rookie in 2014);
  6. Terron Armstead (started 2 games as a 3rd round rookie in 2013); 
  7. David Bakhtiari (started all 16 games as a 4th round rookie in 2013); 
  8. Beachum (started 5 games as 7th round rookie in 2012)
  9. Donald Penn (started 12 games as an UDFA rookie way back in 2007);
  10. Jason Peters (started 1 game as an UDFA rookie even further back in 2004);

Bakhtiari only started as a rookie because Bulaga tore his ACL in the preseason; he was never the team's plan to start at age 21 (let alone the plan from a LT-less team at the start of free agency). Also note, aside from just how many games they started, and how many were actually OL assets as rookies? Like Davenport -- as if no one remembers Houston's OL giving up 50-60 sacks per season? After his first 2 years of experience he was a throw-in on the Tunsil trade. 

And this list is out of how many tackle prospects that were drafted since Penn's rookie year -- 200? How many when you also count all the UDFAs (since 3 of these 10 weren't even drafted)? To say you need some luck to nail this with a mid-round rookie is a gross understatement (has to fall exactly to our 3rd/4th round slot, if there is even such a player present in this draft). 

Center isn't much better, other than they tend to get drafted later anyway. No fool of a GM is burning a top 10-15 pick on a friggin' center; there have literally been 2 since the AFL-NFL merger and, quite justifiably, neither was taken top 10. 

  1. Ryan Jensen (2013 rd 6) started 0 games as a rookie, and was a G/T prospect to boot;
  2. Paradis (2014 rd 6) also 0 rookie starts
    • BTW pausing this far, in these drafts' round 6, Idzik took Campbell and Dixon. Yeah I know round 6 but still, :bag:  
  3. Corey Linsley (2014 rd 5) started 16 games as a rookie center (we took Jeremiah George); 
  4. Jason Kelce (2011 rd 6) started 16 games as a rookie;
  5. Glasgow (2016 rd 3) started 11 as a rookie at 3 positions, suggesting he was starter via injury;
  6. Trey Hopkins (UDFA 2014) started 0 games as a rookie;
  7. Ben Jones (2012 rd 4) started 10 games as a rookie (at RG -- also he was terrible for years);
  8. Spencer Long (2014 rd 3) started 0 games as a rookie;
  9. Kilgore (2011 rd 5) started 0 games as a rookie;
  10. Pat Elflein (2017 rd 3) started 14 games as a rookie, but was pretty bad as a rookie, especially in pass protection, and they've moved him to guard... where he's still pretty bad in pass protection;
  11. David Andrews (UDFA in 2015) started 11 games, but is a bad example because NE OLmen are permitted to hold, and shank DTs in the balls;
  12. Spencer Pulley (2016 UDFA) started 0 games as a rookie;
  13. J.Harrison (UDFA in 2014) started 10 games as a rookie for Indy, out of desperation just like with the Jets;
  14. Austin Reiter (2015 rd 7) started 0 games as a rookie and was waived 4x. 

So that's 6 of them league-wide over the last 9 drafts, 2 of them were UDFAs, and at least 2 were pretty bad or worse. Plus how many only started due to the actual starter getting injured? Well unless you're comfortable with Harrison starting at least 14 games, saving the center position for the mid/late rounds of the draft is again relying upon luck. Not just luck that we hit on the pick, but further luck that at this point in the draft that there's any WR/LT/C prospect at these positions worth starting as rookies in the first place, even with the benefit of hindsight that we won't have.

Luck is neither a reliable nor prudent plan. They're going to have to pay for some veterans. Some of it will be mere temporary overpayment (e.g. Anderson), and some of it will be throwing money at bad (e.g. Kalil this past year). They're right to be looking hard at Conklin. 

This is why I wouldn't mind overpaying Robby to keep him. That or overpay Cooper. 

Otherwise, we are entering the draft with too many holes to fill. 

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53 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Overpay undeserving players and you end up with holes down the road anyways.  

True, but I like Robby and think he can develop into a good long term player. If we can pair him with a good young WR and keep Crowder healthy, I can live with that. 

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1 hour ago, slimjasi said:

This is why I wouldn't mind overpaying Robby to keep him. That or overpay Cooper. 

Otherwise, we are entering the draft with too many holes to fill. 

Same here. Also I think some are vastly overstating how much it would be to overpay him. Anderson isn’t getting a multi-year deal at $15MM per with 2 years guaranteed for skill. No way. He’ll get 1 year guaranteed for skill, and it won’t likely be at $15MM anyway (if it is then someone else can have him). 

I thought we wanted to find out what we have in Darnold. Going with the preposterously unrealistic idea of drafting 2 WRs + Crowder + a WR4 type is a recipe for excusing his entire season when, not if, he falls short of hopes again. 

Seriously, when was the last time a team gave it’s still very much developing young QB two rookies for its WR1+WR2 positions. Also presumably we should also build the OL “the right way” and wait until 2020-2022 rookies develop. Just in time for Darnold to cost $35MM/year. 

So what’s the difference if they spend an extra $25MM the upcoming 2 seasons on a WR and a pair of veteran OLmen, or wait until 2022 so we can be happy about having 2-3 fewer veteran salaries at WR/OL and pay that same additional $ all to Darnold?

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8 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

True, but I like Robby and think he can develop into a good long term player. If we can pair him with a good young WR and keep Crowder healthy, I can live with that. 

He'd need to develop a lot to justify borderline WR1 money.  Even at his best he's been a replacement level receiver.  He needs to take his game to another level entirely to be worth the money.  I don't think he's equipped to do that.

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2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I thought we wanted to find out what we have in Darnold.

Finding out "what we have in Darnold" was a decent reason to avoid trading Robby at the deadline.  It's not a good reason to force an extension now that we've reached the offseason. 

Pay him and we thus basically sit on the WRs we have on the roster, perhaps using a 2nd/3rd rounder on one new one and nothing more.

We should apply the transition tag to Robby and see just what his market value is, then match accordingly if we see fit.

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3 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Henry is that rare rb who is worth the second contract.  Once the titans decided to actually make him the featured back and had a qb who could keep defenses honest he dominated in regular season and then went nuts as we all know in the playoffs 

Yes, but he's not going to get a deal worth more, on average, than top 5 RB money (basically, he'd need to get 13m per or more), so let him hit the market and tell him you want to beat whatever his best offer is. 

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11 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Finding out "what we have in Darnold" was a decent reason to avoid trading Robby at the deadline.  It's not a good reason to force an extension now that we've reached the offseason. 

Pay him and we thus basically sit on the WRs we have on the roster, perhaps using a 2nd/3rd rounder on one new one and nothing more.

We should apply the transition tag to Robby and see just what his market value is, then match accordingly if we see fit.

I had a long post (of course) and the browser closed, and only the first paragraph was cached in.

It did start with this:

I literally agree with zero things you’ve said here. Zero. :) 

  • Not the reason for keeping him for the remainder of 2019 vs the remainder of 2020 (since Darnold’s development doesn’t and didn’t end after 9 more games);
  • Disagree with the notion that extending him therefore means waiting until round 3 to address the position in the draft, since we’d still have a starter hole even with such an extension;
  • Right down to your idea, which is literally the single worst move Douglas could make, in applying the Transition Tag on Anderson.

The last part is just mindless. So you’re balking at $12MM for the 2020 season, after which he’s on annual team options at that rate, but sure let’s go ahead and guarantee him $16MM for the 2020 season instead??? 

See, what happens if you apply the Transition Tag is all bidding ends right there. He signs it, is then no longer a FA; he’s all ours at a guaranteed $16MM for 2020, and then is a UFA again in 2021. It’s the worst possible thing Douglas can do, short of guaranteeing Anderson $15MM/year x 2 years (which would never happen anyway).

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2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The last part is just mindless. So you’re balking at $12MM for the 2020 season, after which he’s on annual team options at that rate, but sure let’s go ahead and guarantee him $16MM for the 2020 season instead??? 

I wasn't aware that the Transition Tag resulted in a specific amount going to a player.  I will concede this point.  We should not transition tag him.

The other stuff, you're wrong though.  lol.

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4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I wasn't aware that the Transition Tag resulted in a specific amount going to a player.  I will concede this point.  We should not transition tag him.

The other stuff, you're wrong though.  lol.

lol

I'm dead-right, though.

If you want to provide me with an example of any NFL team with a ~22 year-old starting QB, that went into the draft with holes at both the WR1 and WR2 starting positions - on top of other draft needs the team clearly has - I'd like to see it. Also it goes without saying it should be a successful example to model the Jets after, not an example that resulted in disaster.  But I'm not sure you can even find that.

It would be foolish for any team - barring being in possession of the #1 overall pick or close to it - to pigeonhole itself into a single position regardless of the talent available, rather than prospects at 2-3 worthy positions at that point in the draft. Say the top 

You're also wrong about the success rate of 2nd-3rd round WRs vs 2nd-3rd round LTs. 

You think wishful Jets fans railed about how we "ruined" Sanchez? You ain't seen nothing yet. ;) 

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23 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

lol

I'm dead-right, though.

If you want to provide me with an example of any NFL team with a ~22 year-old starting QB, that went into the draft with holes at both the WR1 and WR2 starting positions 

I'll stop you right there though.  I'm not suggesting we do that.  For one, we still have Jamison Crowder.  I've also advocated re-signing Demaryius Thomas.

I'm also intrigued by FA Breshad Perriman, who should come significantly cheaper than Anderson.  

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22 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I'll stop you right there though.  I'm not suggesting we do that.  For one, we still have Jamison Crowder.  I've also advocated re-signing Demaryius Thomas.

I'm also intrigued by FA Breshad Perriman, who should come significantly cheaper than Anderson.  

Crowder is a slot receiver, and one with drops issues at that. 

Demaryius Thomas, another year older, is not a plan. He didn't have the most reliable hands either. If he is the fallback WR2 starter while heading into the draft without a WR1 and looking to upgrade from him in the same draft, they're doing it wrong. He's the guy you end up starting if your actual starter gets injured over the summer or during the season (e.g. in place of Enunwa), not a guy you plan on going to battle with in March.

Perriman is the only potential option you've put forth, since he at least has big upside to go along with some on-field indication he can play at this level. I'd remind you every one of his tiny number of noteworthy games came against utter trash pass defenses, or with a pair of pro bowl WRs on the field, leaving him matched up with the leftover NB/dimeback corner or something.

I don't know what he'll cost when the time comes, but whatever it is I'll bet it's more than you think. He's a former 1st rounder that has given some indication of finally waking up and getting it, and many teams picking later will be looking for an instant starter now, not a guy to slowly bring along over the next 2-3 seasons. My guess is he'll be within $3-4MM of what Anderson gets. Maybe closer than that. But it's at least an idea that isn't a joke like force-starting DT for 16 games or force-starting a mid-round rookie for 16 games.

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21 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

He'd need to develop a lot to justify borderline WR1 money.  Even at his best he's been a replacement level receiver.  He needs to take his game to another level entirely to be worth the money.  I don't think he's equipped to do that.

I think he's a little better than you do. 

I don't think he's a #1, but I could definitely see him as a #2 on a contending team. 

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