Mahomes agrees to 10 year extension

[Jet Nut]

13 hours ago, Trolly McTrollface said:

In this case it pretty much is guaranteed though.

Even if it wasn’t though, top QBs like Rothlisberger, Brees, and the Manning’s get every cent of their money. Teams don’t cut star QBs, and KC isn’t cutting Mahomes.

This, yes

[Jet Nut]

12 hours ago, JTJet said:

Well yeah lol. 

But saying Mahomes has the largest contract ever is just false. He will be lucky to see 50% of that 500 million number. 

He has the largest contract ever.  

$250 (50%) of that deal still makes it the highest NFL contract ever

Nothing false about it.  

[Jet Nut]

14 hours ago, BigRy56 said:

Man we’re ****ed when it’s time to pay Sam

The day Sam is playing well enough to get into this type of conversation. about contract #2, I'm a happy fan.

[Charlie Brown]

13 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

I tried to tell everyone 4 years ago about this kid, Macc, and the lawn ornament wanted a SS who most likely won’t be on the Jets roster in a year, or 2.

Thank you!

I too wanted Mahomes and admit I was wrong on how good Watson was going to be.   
 

And while he and say Watson were OBVIOUS picks on a team devoid of a quality QB it seems to escape some out here.  

So again MacCagnan rightly gets double blame because he passed on these quality QBs while essentially doubling down on Hackenberg!!!
 

This is the logic of a poor failed GM and gets you Instead drafting a very good SS instead. 

[JTJet]

8 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I think you're over-estimating how many QBs flame out quickly (particularly due to injury, which will be important in a moment) and under-estimating how many QB's have 12+ year careers and are still successful at that stage.

QB's in recent years (let's say guys who have played any football in the 2010-present range) who have played 12+ seasons or are approaching that number (I've marked in bold the ones that were still effective starters 12+ years in and/or at 34+ years of age):

• Brady (age 42, active)
• Mark Brunell (retired at 41)
• Brees (40, active)
• Josh McCown (retired at 40; spent about 7 seasons as a starter)
• Matt Hasselbeck (retired at 40)
• Peyton (retired at 39)
• Kerry Collins (retired at 39)
• Jon Kitna (retired at 39)
• Rivers (38, active)
• Eli (retired at 38)
• Carson Palmer (retired at 38)
• Matt Schaub (38, active, though a backup; started for 7 seasons)
• Roethlisberger (37, active)
• Ryan Fitzpatrick (37, active)
• Rodgers (36, active)
• Tony Romo (retired at 36)
• Jake Delhomme (retired at 36)
• Donovan McNabb (retired at 35)
• Michael Vick (retired at 35)
• Matt Ryan (34, active)
• Alex Smith (34 in 2018, his final season played; rest of career TBD)
• Joe Flacco (34, active, though as a backup)
• Jay Cutler (retired at 34)
• Matthew Stafford (31, active, entering year 12)

 

QBs who have played less than 10 years but are still currently active at 30+ years old (I've again bolded the ones that are still effective starters):

• Andy Dalton (32, active, though as a backup entering year 10)
• Russell Wilson (31, active and elite)
• Kirk Cousins (31, active)
• Ryan Tannehill (31, active)
• Cam Newton (30, active)

Other active, veteran starting QB's include Tyrod Taylor (30), Jimmy Garoppolo (28), Derek Carr (28), Carson Wentz (27), Teddy Bridgewater (27) and Dak Prescott (26)

 

QB's that flamed out due to poor play:

• Brandon Weeden (retired at 35; only played 5 seasons in the league)
• Jason Campbell (retired at 33)
• David Garrard (retired at 32)
• Mark Sanchez (retired at 32)
• Byron Leftwich (retired at 32)
• Rex Grossman (retired at 32)
• Tarvaris Jackson (retired at 32)
• Kyle Boller (retired at 30)
• John Beck (retired at 30)
• J.P. Losman (retired at 30)
• Joey Harrington (retired at 29)
• Blaine Gabbert (retired at 29)
• Matt Leinart (retired at 29)
• Vince Young (retired at 28)
• Brock Osweiler (retired at 28)
• Brady Quinn (retired at 28)
• Jimmy Clausen (retired at 28)
• Blake Bortles (27, currently a free agent)
• Josh Freeman (retired at 27)
• E.J. Manuel (retired at 27)
• Christian Ponder (retired at 26)
• Jake Locker (retired at 26)
• Marcus Mariota (26, active but reduced to being a backup)
• Jameis Winston (25, active but reduced to being a backup)
• Johnny Manziel (retired at 25)
• Tim Tebow (done in NFL at 25, moved on to baseball)
• Paxton Lynch (retired at 23)
• Christian Hackenberg (retired at 23)

 

QB's that flamed out due to injury:

• David Carr (retired at 33)
• Sam Bradford (retired at 31)
• Andrew Luck (retired at 29)
• Robert Griffin III (29, still active, but a backup)

 

Only the last group would impact Mahomes, since I can't imagine a scenario where anything other than injury will prevent him from being a starting QB in this league for a long time, and an effective one at that.

So that makes 14 successful 12+ year QBs and only 4 talented QB's that flamed out due to injury.  The rest are essentially a wash.  Certainly a far cry from saying that successful 12+ year careers are the "exception" while the alternative (an elite QB flaming out due to injury) is the "rule". 

None of those QB's who flamed out due to poor play ever played at anything close to an elite level.  And even 1 or 2 of those QB's in the injured pile were questionable talents; Bradford especially lived on his # 1 pick status for a long time.  Even if he had been healthy I doubt he would have ever been an elite QB.

Since Mahomes has a low risk of "flaming out" from anything but injury, and given the growing list of successful QB's into their mid-late 30s, I give Mahomes at least an 80 or 85 % chance of having a 12+ year career in this league, and still being successful at that point.  He's only 24 and has already posted a 50+ TD season and MVP as a starter.  Just 10 more to go to meet that goal!

There are some flaws in this big time. I said injury OR decline in production, which would merge your last two lists together. 

Also, there are some really sh*tty QBs included in your first list, about 8, that were so bad they bounced around from team to team their entire career, and only had spurts of being starting QBs. Which would severely reduce that list. 

[JTJet]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

He has the largest contract ever.  

$250 (50%) of that deal still make it the highest ever

Nothing false about it.  

Mike Trout $426 Fully guaranteed.

Bryce Harper $330 Fully guaranteed. 

Giancarlo Stanton $325 Fully guaranteed. 

Gerrit Cole $320 Fully guaranteed. 

Mahomes has to make it through the majority of his contract to hit the numbers these guys do. There are multiple reasons that may not happen, I'm not saying it's going to, but it doesnt take much. 

All these baseball players could never play a game again, and they are getting that money. 

So on paper, Mahomes has the largest contract, but just like all NFL contracts, the total number is inflated by various mechanisms in the contract, in the bank after its said and done will be a much different story I suspect. 

[Jet Nut]

14 minutes ago, JTJet said:

Mike Trout $426 Fully guaranteed.

Bryce Harper $330 Fully guaranteed. 

Giancarlo Stanton $325 Fully guaranteed. 

Gerrit Cole $320 Fully guaranteed. 

Mahomes has to make it through the majority of his contract to hit the numbers these guys do. There are multiple reasons that may not happen, I'm not saying it's going to, but it doesnt take much. 

All these baseball players could never play a game again, and they are getting that money. 

So on paper, Mahomes has the largest contract, but just like all NFL contracts, the total number is inflated by various mechanisms in the contract, in the bank after its said and done will be a much different story I suspect. 

And Mahomes signed a deal for $500.  You can tell me he won't see it all you want but 1. you dont know that 2. Unless he sucks he'll get another deal and the two combined will be more than the $500 mil he just signed for.

Biggest point, you said he could have done better, what players in baseball got has nothing to do with him being able to get more money in football.  Football players get hurt in an instant and their careers change, doesnt happen as often in baseball.  Im not getting the comparison and how it changes the NFL biggest contract, by far, being a deal to complain about.  Hes on a rate of $50 mil per, more than any of the contracts you listed for bonus points

[JTJet]

3 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

And Mahomes signed a deal for $500.  You can tell me he won't see it all you want but 1. you dont know that 2. Unless he sucks he'll get another deal and the two combined will be more than the $500 mil he just signed for.

Biggest point, you said he could have done better, what players in baseball got has nothing to do with him being able to get more money in football.  Football players get hurt in an instant and their careers change, doesnt happen as often in baseball.  Im not getting the comparison and how it changes the NFL biggest contract, by far, being a deal to complain about.  Hes on a rate of $50 mil per, more than any of the contracts you listed for bonus points

My original response was to Mahomes being the highest paid athlete ever, not NFL player.

I'm not saying Mahomes wont make it through it, I'm saying there is a likely chance he will not, which will prevent him from getting the 500. And if you want to add multiple contracts up to prove your point, theres a ton of other athletes we can do that with too. 

Not sure why this so hard to understand. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, JTJet said:

There are some flaws in this big time. I said injury OR decline in production, which would merge your last two lists together. 

Also, there are some really sh*tty QBs included in your first list, about 8, that were so bad they bounced around from team to team their entire career, and only had spurts of being starting QBs. Which would severely reduce that list. 

 

There were also no QB's on the poor play/declined/etc list that had displayed anything close to Mahomes' level of play.  You're nitpicking a larger point:  That quite a few QB's can, and have, produced for 12+ years in this league without a precipitous decline, and that elite QB's like Mahomes' don't automatically just flame out quickly when they get into their early 30s.  

In short, Mahomes producing for 12+ years wouldn't be a rare sighting.  It's far more of a common occurrence than the point you tried to make, that for every Brees and Rodgers there are "77 QB's" who decline greatly or get hurt.  I laid out the data and you're interpreting it improperly. 

Even if you throw those 13 "declined" QB's from the first pile into the analysis, that results in 14 QBs in the positive group and 13 QBs in the negative group.  Still greater than a 50 % shot based on that info that a QB who doesn't suffer major injuries can succeed for 12+ years if he has the talent and ability to do so (which Mahomes obviousy has displayed he does).  Throw in the injured QB's and its 14 out of 31 QBs.  Still a lot higher than your original estimate.

Meanwhile, as I pointed out earlier, QB's careers are only getting LONGER on average, not shortened, based on how they're protected by the league. 

[Jetsfan80]

48 minutes ago, JTJet said:

Mike Trout $426 Fully guaranteed.

Bryce Harper $330 Fully guaranteed. 

Giancarlo Stanton $325 Fully guaranteed. 

Gerrit Cole $320 Fully guaranteed. 

Mahomes has to make it through the majority of his contract to hit the numbers these guys do.

Sure, but by 2027 (age 31) he'll have already banked something like $265-275M.  Again, not that old for a QB.  Not long after that he'll be in the territory of the guys listed above.  

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Scott Dierking said:

Explain this to me. Why can't KC just cut bait with him at any time, and only be on the hook for the remainder of the signing bonus (negligible)?

For me, I think his agent did him some disservice here. 

I imagine KC has some outs, sure, but he also has a no-trade clause.  So Mahomes' play would have to decline in a big way for cutting him to become justifiable on the team's end.  

[Biggs]

As a Jets fan who will likely die before the Jet every win a SB again, he has already earned the future pay.  If he does nothing for the rest of his career he has already earned a spot in the HOF.  It's hard to argue he isn't the best player I have ever seen in over 50 years watching NFL football.  He should be the highest paid player by far.  

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, JTJet said:

My original response was to Mahomes being the highest paid athlete ever, not NFL player.

I'm not saying Mahomes wont make it through it, I'm saying there is a likely chance he will not, which will prevent him from getting the 500. And if you want to add multiple contracts up to prove your point, theres a ton of other athletes we can do that with too. 

Not sure why this so hard to understand. 

I get what youre saying but I was responding to your post where you said he could have done better.  As a football player.  

I'm still thinking if he doesnt finish out the 10 seasons he'll obviously get another contract and the two combined will top the $500 mil mark anyway.

The hard part to understand is why you changed from what I clearly responded to, your comment that he could have done better.  You decided to take a side turn by bringing in baseball and still Mahomes at $50 mil per tops all the names you threw into the mix.  So dont argue, youre the one who seems to be missing the point a little 

And if he really does have a no trade clause in his deal he just may see the full 10 years.  If he doesnt want to leave KC are they going to just cut him as a 30ish year old 7 year into the deal, or worse as a 28 year old 5 years in?  No way

[Scott Dierking]

27 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I imagine KC has some outs, sure, but he also has a no-trade clause.  So Mahomes' play would have to decline in a big way for cutting him to become justifiable on the team's end.  

Agreed, but KC would seem to be able to cut Mahomes because of injury (that is the biggest risk for both) or decline in play without huge penalty. Unless there is language we are not aware of.

The risk for KC is rather small on this contract.

[playtowinthegame]

Stay tuned.

This place is going to be fun when Tom Mills decides to swing his weight around next year in Leaveland. 

Baker could be the 17-25 ranked QB in ‘20 and he’s still going to ask for Mahomes like $$$$$ I’m thinking about 7 years, $300 million.

A lot of guys on this board are going to be grateful ? we drafted Sam Darnold. We'll hear, "at least Sam is a winning quarterback unlike the overrated 3rd Place Baker McTrollfield.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@Trolly McTrollface

[slats]

11 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Agreed, but KC would seem to be able to cut Mahomes because of injury (that is the biggest risk for both) or decline in play without huge penalty. Unless there is language we are not aware of.

The risk for KC is rather small on this contract.

This is what I'm reading about the deal as details emerge, that it's going to wind up being a fantastic deal for the team and not so much for Mahomes. The deal stretches out over 12 years, though, and I think both sides have outs along the way. 

[GreenFish]

Good thing we didn’t draft Mahomes. Phew. We dodge a bullet with that contract. If the Chiefs cut him this offseason, they would have $66M of dead money. Suckas!!!! Kidding of course. The contract looks solid to me for both parties. 

Has anyone heard from Jamal?

[Jet Nut]

41 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Agreed, but KC would seem to be able to cut Mahomes because of injury (that is the biggest risk for both) or decline in play without huge penalty. Unless there is language we are not aware of.

The risk for KC is rather small on this contract.

It seems right, that theyre covered for injury which sounds good to me.  

If he stays healthy and playing like a top QB though, he'll have made one hell of a haul here

[GreenFish]

12 hours ago, choon328 said:

Not even close to being correct on this.  This pandemic has people salivating for any sports. People will not boycott the NFL just like they didn't when they first started kneeling. 

People have been boycotting the NFL during the offseason for the last 5 years. Come game 1, everyone will be glued to their TV eating chips and guacamole plus some BBQ wings.

[Jet Nut]

15 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

People have been boycotting the NFL during the offseason for the last 5 years. Come game 1, everyone will be glued to their TV eating chips and guacamole plus some BBQ wings.

The people who scream that they will never watch again because of blah, blah, blah aren't real football fans and casually watch the NFL at best.

I have a bro-in-law like this.  He could care less about NFL football so is the first to say he doesnt watch because they players are paid too much, are full of themselves or because of kneeling.  Thats fine but football fans will be glued to their TV eating chips and guacamole plus some BBQ wings just like you said

[Scott Dierking]

52 minutes ago, slats said:

This is what I'm reading about the deal as details emerge, that it's going to wind up being a fantastic deal for the team and not so much for Mahomes. The deal stretches out over 12 years, though, and I think both sides have outs along the way. 

Exactly. The danger for NFL teams in doling out bonuses (guaranteed money), is those bonuses accelerating into the cap if the team needs to cut the player or there is injury.

The Chiefs mitigated that risk by having the vast majority of the bonuses being roster bonuses, meaning he has to be on the roster in order to earn those. 

I think his agent did him a disservice here. It is ok to bet on yourself, but not to this degree. Chiefs did a heck of a job.

[Jetsfan80]

42 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Exactly. The danger for NFL teams in doling out bonuses (guaranteed money), is those bonuses accelerating into the cap if the team needs to cut the player or there is injury.

The Chiefs mitigated that risk by having the vast majority of the bonuses being roster bonuses, meaning he has to be on the roster in order to earn those. 

I think his agent did him a disservice here. It is ok to bet on yourself, but not to this degree. Chiefs did a heck of a job.

 

And assuming this is a very Chiefs-sided deal (I'll wait until the deal shows up on overthecap.com to confirm fully, lol), it won't have as brutal an impact on other QB deals as originally thought.  Fans of the Texans, Cowboys, Jets, and a few other teams with young QBs can rest a bit easier.

[whodeawhodat]

3 hours ago, JTJet said:

Mike Trout $426 Fully guaranteed.

Bryce Harper $330 Fully guaranteed. 

Giancarlo Stanton $325 Fully guaranteed. 

Gerrit Cole $320 Fully guaranteed. 

Mahomes has to make it through the majority of his contract to hit the numbers these guys do. There are multiple reasons that may not happen, I'm not saying it's going to, but it doesnt take much. 

All these baseball players could never play a game again, and they are getting that money. 

So on paper, Mahomes has the largest contract, but just like all NFL contracts, the total number is inflated by various mechanisms in the contract, in the bank after its said and done will be a much different story I suspect. 

you are comparing apples to oranges here. 

[Scott Dierking]

24 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

And assuming this is a very Chiefs-sided deal (I'll wait until the deal shows up on overthecap.com to confirm fully, lol), it won't have as brutal an impact on other QB deals as originally thought.  Fans of the Texans, Cowboys, Jets, and a few other teams with young QBs can rest a bit easier.

This is what will be interesting, assuming all the parties remain the same--Who is Sam Darnold's agent? Jimmy Sexton.

Jimmy Sexton is also the agent for Adam Gase and Joe Douglas. 

Sexton was thought to be behind the original hold-out of Darnold. He also kept the Douglas deal on hold until the sides could come to what Sexton and Douglas thought were fair.

[JTJet]

2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

I get what youre saying but I was responding to your post where you said he could have done better.  As a football player.  

I'm still thinking if he doesnt finish out the 10 seasons he'll obviously get another contract and the two combined will top the $500 mil mark anyway.

The hard part to understand is why you changed from what I clearly responded to, your comment that he could have done better.  You decided to take a side turn by bringing in baseball and still Mahomes at $50 mil per tops all the names you threw into the mix.  So dont argue, youre the one who seems to be missing the point a little 

And if he really does have a no trade clause in his deal he just may see the full 10 years.  If he doesnt want to leave KC are they going to just cut him as a 30ish year old 7 year into the deal, or worse as a 28 year old 5 years in?  No way

I didnt side turn anything at all. I've been talking about all athletes from the first post on, and when I said he could have done better, I was referring to how his agent set the contract up, not that Mahomes could have gotten more money. 

Florio posted this today explaining it far better than I can. 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/07/07/the-problems-with-the-patrick-mahomes-contract/

He wont "obviously" get another contract if he doesnt finish the 10 seasons, you have zero idea as to why he wouldnt finish it right now. If he has a career ending injury in 3 seasons, poof done. 

[JTJet]

8 minutes ago, whodeawhodat said:

you are comparing apples to oranges here. 

You guys are just assuming what you want to and ignoring the context of what I'm saying. 

10 years from now each of those baseball players will have the full number of those contracts in their bank accounts. 

That is not necessarily true with Mahomes. You can assume it to be true, but you can just as easily assume it to not be true. 

Anything can happen between now and 10 years from now that could affect if he gets the max value of that money or not, while those baseball players could never play a game again, and they will have their money. 

[Jet Nut]

16 minutes ago, JTJet said:

I didnt side turn anything at all. I've been talking about all athletes from the first post on, and when I said he could have done better, I was referring to how his agent set the contract up, not that Mahomes could have gotten more money. 

Florio posted this today explaining it far better than I can. 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/07/07/the-problems-with-the-patrick-mahomes-contract/

He wont "obviously" get another contract if he doesnt finish the 10 seasons, you have zero idea as to why he wouldnt finish it right now. If he has a career ending injury in 3 seasons, poof done. 

I have no reason or proof why he won't be playing but you have some king of proof that he won't be, won't get paid.  I see more proof from Mahomes that he will get paid again at 29 than not.  Argue away if you want, I stand on that one

Its a nice line of thinking if all youre doing is arguing.  You said he could have done better, I responded.  Done, is running in a circle, I've stated at least twice what I was responding to.  Hes making $50 mil per.  No one should complain about that payday  

 

[The Crusher]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I imagine KC has some outs, sure, but he also has a no-trade clause.  So Mahomes' play would have to decline in a big way for cutting him to become justifiable on the team's end.  

Mahommes could become a billionaire if he learns the Fitzpatrick shuffle. 

[14 in Green]

2 hours ago, playtowinthegame said:

Stay tuned.

This place is going to be fun when Tom Mills decides to swing his weight around next year in Leaveland. 

Baker could be the 17-25 ranked QB in ‘20 and he’s still going to ask for Mahomes like $$$$$ I’m thinking about 7 years, $300 million.

A lot of guys on this board are going to be grateful ? we drafted Sam Darnold. We'll hear, "at least Sam is a winning quarterback unlike the overrated 3rd Place Baker McTrollfield.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@Trolly McTrollface

LOL. No argument. As I said later in the thread, Baker and Allen will come knocking also, and Lamar could end up getting near Mahomes type numbers with his deal.

BTW,

I’m open to a friendly little wager between two ‘Cuse fans, on which QB ends up with more wins, or  the better QBR this season.... I’ll take the midget, you take the ginger. ?

[Dcat]

36 minutes ago, Trolly McTrollface said:

LOL. No argument. As I said later in the thread, Baker and Allen will come knocking also, and Lamar could end up getting near Mahomes type numbers with his deal.

BTW,

I’m open to a friendly little wager between two ‘Cuse fans, on which QB ends up with more wins, or  the better QBR this season.... I’ll take the midget, you take the ginger. ?

there's this place 10 miles outside of vegas where you get both.

[14 in Green]

13 minutes ago, Dcat said:

there's this place 10 miles outside of vegas where you get both.

LMFAO

Well played, sir.

 

[rangerous]

wow.  that's a real head turner.  i can only hope mahommes is satisfied and won't play the all too common want more game like revis or now adams.  let's hope he's an honorable player and man.

[whodeawhodat]

1 hour ago, JTJet said:

You guys are just assuming what you want to and ignoring the context of what I'm saying. 

10 years from now each of those baseball players will have the full number of those contracts in their bank accounts. 

That is not necessarily true with Mahomes. You can assume it to be true, but you can just as easily assume it to not be true. 

Anything can happen between now and 10 years from now that could affect if he gets the max value of that money or not, while those baseball players could never play a game again, and they will have their money. 

you listed 4 MLB contracts comparing that to an NFL contract.  You would be better served comparing NHL to NBA contracts.  NFL is its own animal with non-guaranteed contracts, larger rosters, and a hard cap which makes signing bonus even more important in addition to the time value of money. 

 

All good, i hear what you are saying but the comparison doesnt hold weight.  Add to that there are details coming out about how most will be guaranteed with kickers(kind of a guarantee).

[Raideraholic]

3 hours ago, GreenFish said:

People have been boycotting the NFL during the offseason for the last 5 years. Come game 1, everyone will be glued to their TV eating chips and guacamole plus some BBQ wings.

Wrong read on the situation.   The last time the NFL  saw their television viewership  take a big hit, only when the networks stop showing the players kneeling did their rating come back.  The NFL , and all sports are making a big mistake if they make it political .   The players disrespect the flag, and you can take it to the bank people are going to boycott. ( this time a lot might be done for good).   People watch sports to get away from politics, and no one likes politics thrown down their throats.

[Jetsfan80]

17 minutes ago, Raideraholic said:

Wrong read on the situation.   The last time the NFL  saw their television viewership  take a big hit, only when the networks stop showing the players kneeling did their rating come back.  The NFL , and all sports are making a big mistake if they make it political .   The players disrespect the flag, and you can take it to the bank people are going to boycott. ( this time a lot might be done for good).   People watch sports to get away from politics, and no one likes politics thrown down their throats.

 

This isn't about politics and never was intended to be.  This is a humanitarian movement. 

We have a Club for this topic.  Take it there.