Sam Darnold Discussion Thread: MERGED

[Losmeister]

45 minutes ago, Barkus said:

Go watch sam’s TD throw to Berrios, that was a sick play. Not many QBs can make that play. He has talent. Get him some WR and a better coach and the team can win with Sam.

Garbage time is 100% IRRELEVANT!!!!!!

WHenthe game is on the line...he does this

 

 

[Maxman]

6 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

good job mods. same for Gase please!

tanks!

@slats @Maxman

Do Gase next, lol.

[Losmeister]

15 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

And I kind think he's just dopey and undisciplined.

Gase is clearly a problem

See previous Sabo tweet about the possibilitythat both are wrong....  I wouldnt trust Sam to read a D and make audibles (dopey)\again, IDGAF about Gase

[Irish Jet]

30 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

Garbage time is 100% IRRELEVANT!!!!!!

WHenthe game is on the line...he does this

 

 

Gase literally tried to pin this loss on Robby btw. 

I was pretty much done with him there and then.

[Losmeister]

9 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

Gase literally tried to pin this loss on Robby btw. 

I was pretty much done with him there and then.

yeah the NEXT plpay, almost same, Robbo stumbled whenhe looked for the ball....  overthrown....

so, yeash, i thought "he's protecting Sam" but i wasnt a fan o that move

[CTM]

1 hour ago, Irish Jet said:

What about those who sneered at their Allen being undraftable projection?

Ok. What is your point. The 2 situations aren't related.

Allen has been a bad QB for 2 years just as projected. For the first 2 games of year 3 against some bad defenses he's been good. There's more evidence today to suggest he's a bad QB than good one. If the current performance holds and he goes on to have a good career I'll be surprised but I won't try and maintain that's he's really a bad QB in disguise.

Darnold has been a bad QB for 2 years just as projected. he's been a bad QB through 2 games of year, again, just as projected. Trying to pretend that his issues are due to anything and everything but his talent is delusional. People today are pretending he's a good QB disguised as a bad one due to x, y,z.. no. he's just a bad QB and has been from day 1, despite flashing on some plays, drives even games.

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

It's bad mechanics. You wouldn't teach somebody to throw like that from the pocket. I don't particularly care that his mechanics are bad because all QBs are different but you just would not teach what he does. Doesn't mean it makes him a bad player, but he throws from poor angles when he doesn't have to, and doesn't set himself when he has time to. When you do that you better make those throws.

He's not Mahomes.

He's got great ability. Part of that is what makes Darnold so tantalizing. The TD throw to Berrios was incredible when you watch it from other angles, the pass to Robby against Oakland as well. But those throws aren't mechanical, those are just incredible throws that some QBs can make. The bad mechanics comes from when he's sitting in the pocket.

And it's not fan speak cause some "experts" will tell you the same thing. 

It is not.  There is nothing with his mechanics that are a problem.  Coming out of school he had a longish loop, its gone, was gone by the time he has his pro day.  His release is fine and when he can set all is fine with his mechanics.  

I didnt say he was Mahomes, you know what I meant.  Mahomes passes off his back foot ints incredible, when someone else does its bad mechanics.  

And it is fanspeak because you dont hear "experts" analyze and complain about Darnold mechanics, just fans.

 

 

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, Losmeister said:

 

 

 

 

Wow, a tweet from a cop on twitter who's a fan. 

And you can name a QB who hasn't thrown off his back foot, ever?  On missed passes?  

Investigative material 

 

 

[Irish Jet]

23 minutes ago, CTM said:

Ok. What is your point. The 2 situations aren't related.

Allen has been a bad QB for 2 years just as projected. For the first 2 games of year 3 against some bad defenses he's been good. There's more evidence today to suggest he's a bad QB than good one. If the current performance holds and he goes on to have a good career I'll be surprised but I won't try and maintain that's he's really a bad QB in disguise.

Darnold has been a bad QB for 2 years just as projected. he's been a bad QB through 2 games of year, again, just as projected. Trying to pretend that his issues are due to anything and everything but his talent is delusional. People today are pretending he's a good QB disguised as a bad one due to x, y,z.. no. he's just a bad QB and has been from day 1, despite flashing on some plays, drives even games.

They're clearly a case of two QB's that have been put in very different circumstances. One almost ideal and one absolutely catastrophic.

Football Outsiders have already admitted that Allen's start to this season is a statistical projection that is almost entirely reserved for elite QB's. With Ryan Fitzpatrick, who isn't a bad QB, the only exception in their records over the last 12 years. Either way he's pretty much broken their data whether it's a statistical anomaly that they've never seen before or he's just taken a huge step forward. I would also completely disagree that he's been a bad QB, especially when taking into account his rushing. 20 passing TD's and 9 rushing TD's to only 9 picks is pretty impressive for any 2nd year QB. Bad passer maybe, although not this season. 

The point is both were relatively similar prospects (according to FO) who are performing to staggeringly different levels. I think Allen is benefitting from a great supporting cast, especially now they have Diggs and Darnold is suffering immensely from being surrounded by bottom of the barrel trash. The two stand out QB's from that draft class both landed in objectively the best situations. 

I'm fully prepared to move on from Sam if things don't improve but all the Jets did was give him every chance to fail. Josh Malone will be a starting WR this week. I don't even know who that is. If we repeat the same mistakes with Lawrence or Fields it will almost certainly be another debacle. 

[CTM]

16 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

They're clearly a case of two QB's that have been put in very different circumstances. One almost ideal and one absolutely catastrophic.

Clearly?

16 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

Football Outsiders have already admitted that Allen's start to this season is a statistical projection that is almost entirely reserved for elite QB's. With Ryan Fitzpatrick, who isn't a bad QB, the only exception in their records over the last 12 years. Either way he's pretty much broken their data whether it's a statistical anomaly that they've never seen before or he's just taken a huge step forward.

what. QB's having 2 good games in a row has completely broken thier data? link?

Allen has negative 600 Dyar through 2 years. He's been bad bad bad

[Irish Jet]

4 minutes ago, CTM said:

Clearly?

what. QB's having 2 good games in a row has completely broken thier data? link?

Allen has negative 600 Dyar through 2 years. He's been bad bad bad

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2020/week-2-quick-reads

Read for yourself. 

And yes he may be bad bad bad if you treat Football Outsiders passing stats as some sort of gospel. He's steadily improved. When you factor in his running ability I would say he was comfortably a middle of the road QB at the very least and seems to have taken another step this year.

Zero chance he maintains this level of play but I think it's likely he develops into a solid QB.

[hamat711]

1 hour ago, CTM said:

Allen has been a bad QB for 2 years just as projected. For the first 2 games of year 3 against some bad defenses he's been good. There's more evidence today to suggest he's a bad QB than good one. If the current performance holds and he goes on to have a good career I'll be surprised but I won't try and maintain that's he's really a bad QB in disguise.

Allen was not bad last year. He was average or slightly below average.

He had the 6th most TDs in the NFL last year.

[Losmeister]

6 minutes ago, hamat711 said:

Allen was not bad last year. He was average or slightly below average.

He had the 6th most TDs in the NFL last year.

YOu dont know what average means.... 28th 

[hamat711]

7 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

YOu dont know what average means.... 28th 

Josh Allen had 29 TDs last year.............

Only Lamar, Watson, Jameis, Dak and Wilson had more.

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

33 minutes ago, CTM said:

Clearly?

what. QB's having 2 good games in a row has completely broken thier data? link?

Allen has negative 600 Dyar through 2 years. He's been bad bad bad

He has the most passing yards through 2 weeks. 6tds and 0 interceptions. If darnold had these numbers we'd all be jerking each other off

[Losmeister]

young NFL QB related

 

 

[Losmeister]

8 minutes ago, hamat711 said:

Josh Allen had 29 TDs last year.............

Only Lamar, Watson, Jameis, Dak and Wilson had more.

PASSER

Yes he made a ton of plays with his legs due to his HIGH degree of athleticism...

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Irish Jet said:

They're clearly a case of two QB's that have been put in very different circumstances. One almost ideal and one absolutely catastrophic.

Football Outsiders have already admitted that Allen's start to this season is a statistical projection that is almost entirely reserved for elite QB's. With Ryan Fitzpatrick, who isn't a bad QB, the only exception in their records over the last 12 years. Either way he's pretty much broken their data whether it's a statistical anomaly that they've never seen before or he's just taken a huge step forward. I would also completely disagree that he's been a bad QB, especially when taking into account his rushing. 20 passing TD's and 9 rushing TD's to only 9 picks is pretty impressive for any 2nd year QB. Bad passer maybe, although not this season. 

The point is both were relatively similar prospects (according to FO) who are performing to staggeringly different levels. I think Allen is benefitting from a great supporting cast, especially now they have Diggs and Darnold is suffering immensely from being surrounded by bottom of the barrel trash. The two stand out QB's from that draft class both landed in objectively the best situations. 

I'm fully prepared to move on from Sam if things don't improve but all the Jets did was give him every chance to fail. Josh Malone will be a starting WR this week. I don't even know who that is. If we repeat the same mistakes with Lawrence or Fields it will almost certainly be another debacle. 

 

If you're going to factor in the rushing TD's when comparing his TD/INT ratio, you have to include his many fumbles into the equation, too.  He has 24 of those in his career.  14 last year.  I'm not sure how many he lost.

[Jetsfan80]

32 minutes ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

He has the most passing yards through 2 weeks. 6tds and 0 interceptions. If darnold had these numbers we'd all be jerking each other off

Just like Jets fans crowned Darnold way too early, of course many/most of them would to that with Josh Allen, too.  It doesn't mean they'd be correct to do so in either instance.

[CTM]

47 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2020/week-2-quick-reads

Read for yourself. 

 

 I disagree with your summation of the point being made. He sums it up by saying "Allen isn't likely going anywhere" and "truly bad QB's don't play like Allen has the past 2 weeks"  Hardly confident language that he's going to emerge as some kind of all pro

I also disagree witht the basis of this analysis. Josh Allen having a strong start to the season, with 2 years of poor performance under his belt, is much different proposition than Brees, Manning, Brady, Mahommes and others on that list having a strong start to his season. He isn't as near as likely as they are for his play to continue since strong play is anomalous for him while it's expected of the others.  

FO themselves have a similiar concept for their team ratings, called DAVE. Since Allens pre season projections would be far lower than his actual performance they should be weighted down when projecting the season whereas most of the other QB's on that list would not.

Incidently of the 20 names who had a similair start it was probably the worst one on the list, Ryan Fitzpatrick, who failed to stay at that level throughout the season both times. That's not a coincidence.

 

[CTM]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

If you're going to factor in the rushing TD's when comparing his TD/INT ratio, you have to include his many fumbles into the equation, too.  He has 24 of those in his career.  14 last year.  I'm not sure how many he lost.

Doesn't matter how many he lost

[Losmeister]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

If you're going to factor in the rushing TD's when comparing his TD/INT ratio, you have to include his many fumbles into the equation, too.  He has 24 of those in his career.  14 last year.  I'm not sure how many he lost.

They only lost 4... WOW!

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, Losmeister said:

They only lost 4... WOW!

That's a strong luck factor.  Expect some regression in that category once he starts playing some good defenses.

[hamat711]

1 hour ago, Losmeister said:

PASSER

Yes he made a ton of plays with his legs due to his HIGH degree of athleticism...

Why are you discounting a major part of his game?

TDs are TDs. 

His rushing great running balances his passing. 

 

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, hamat711 said:

Why are you discounting a major part of his game?

TDs are TDs. 

His rushing great running balances his passing. 

 

 

No one is discounting it.  But Irish Jet was combining the passing and rushing TDs to suggest his TD/INT ratio was 29:9.  If you're going to count the rushing TDs, you have to count his many fumbles too.  It's only fair.  29 TDs to 23 INTs+Fumbles is not very impressive.

[Losmeister]

9 minutes ago, hamat711 said:

Why are you discounting a major part of his game?

TDs are TDs. 

His rushing great running balances his passing. 

 

What he said...juststicking for tehpassing element in THATcomment...

 

[peekskill68]

I'd love hear the rationale from any Sam booster as to why they would turn down the trade if the Bills were to call JD and offer Allen even up for Darnold.   About the only reason I could even think of at this stage is a belief that Darnold is actually better than Allen and it's Gase and Loggains holding him back.  Based on actual performance, the two aren't even close...

[BROOKLYN JET]

 

[Irish Jet]

8 hours ago, CTM said:

 I disagree with your summation of the point being made. He sums it up by saying "Allen isn't likely going anywhere" and "truly bad QB's don't play like Allen has the past 2 weeks"  Hardly confident language that he's going to emerge as some kind of all pro

I also disagree witht the basis of this analysis. Josh Allen having a strong start to the season, with 2 years of poor performance under his belt, is much different proposition than Brees, Manning, Brady, Mahommes and others on that list having a strong start to his season. He isn't as near as likely as they are for his play to continue since strong play is anomalous for him while it's expected of the others.  

FO themselves have a similiar concept for their team ratings, called DAVE. Since Allens pre season projections would be far lower than his actual performance they should be weighted down when projecting the season whereas most of the other QB's on that list would not.

Incidently of the 20 names who had a similair start it was probably the worst one on the list, Ryan Fitzpatrick, who failed to stay at that level throughout the season both times. That's not a coincidence.

 

I don't think he's going to be an all-pro but even they've admitted themselves that they couldn't have foreseen this sort of production, even if it is a glitch. Obviously it's not going to be as expected as those guys although Allen has unquestionably improved even in those first two years whether you think he was still overall bad or not. Unlike Darnold and Baker for example who stagnated/regressed he did take a step forward. Not impossible that he's just continuing that trend with another year in the league, the same system and with a better supporting cast.

I already mentioned Fitz being the exception, although FO consider him generally to be a pretty solid NFL QB. They also liked Pennington, and how that must make your head spin. I don't put too much stock in their projections, although they're the best in a pretty piss poor industry. I suppose it helps that PFF are their competition in that regard. Plenty of times where I felt Allen and Darnold for that matter played well last season when the more detailed analytics argue otherwise. Football isn't played on a computer. 

[LIJetsFan]

On 9/17/2020 at 2:25 PM, DoubleDown said:

I wouldn't use QBR at all to determine good vs. bad games.  You need an in-depth analysis of the tape, not just statistics.  I don't know enough about DVOA to comment one way or the other.

I use the eyeball test/standard and so far Sam looks slightly better than Mark albiet with a much worse support system in place for Sam.   I'm a fan.  I trust my own eyes.  Enough of these wannabe stats; they don't work out in the team sport called football.    

[LIJetsFan]

14 hours ago, SAR I said:

Yes, but there is a reason:

Darnold was limited last year because all he had was Crowder and Anderson.  This year, its worse, all he has is Hogan.  The injuries are so pathetic and so brutal, I honestly can't blame Gase for being Mr. Conservative.  There is no one for Darnold to throw to.

Reserve judgement for a few weeks when we will look like this:

Perriman
Mims
Crowder
Herndon
Bell

How can one judge Darnold without seeing all 5 on the field at the same time?  That's our passing offense.  All we've got is Herndon.  It is not an exaggeration to say this is the worst its ever been in team history.  The receiver injuries are outrageous.

SAR I

Bell, lol, no thank you.  

[Losmeister]

 

[ScarletKnight89]

13 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

It is not.  There is nothing with his mechanics that are a problem.  Coming out of school he had a longish loop, its gone, was gone by the time he has his pro day.  His release is fine and when he can set all is fine with his mechanics.  

I didnt say he was Mahomes, you know what I meant.  Mahomes passes off his back foot ints incredible, when someone else does its bad mechanics.  

And it is fanspeak because you dont hear "experts" analyze and complain about Darnold mechanics, just fans.

 

 

You don't think his footwork is a problem in the pocket at all? He throws from poor positions/angles when he doesn't have to. We'll agree to disagree on that. I've heard enough beat writers and some studio analysts mention it. I'm assuming they're getting it from somewhere. 

I've seen a  lot of instances where he has more than enough time to set himself and make a throw and chooses to throw the ball from an awkward position. That's what I mean when I say poor mechanics. If he makes those throws consistently, nobody will care.

The point i'm making about Mahomes is that he's a superstar. When Darnold gets to a level where he is playing well consistently, people won't care as much about how he throws the football in regards to jump throws, and throwing off his back foot. But right now, when he throws a pick like he threw in Buffalo, people will jump on him. 

I don't really care about Sam attempting passes like Mahomes does. I think that's part of his game. He's a great athlete. 

 

[predator_05]

The Jets are gonna have an awful season. 

Somebody like the Steelers/Colts/broncos will trade for Darnold, and we'll watch him become a great QB in the NFL, surrounded by quality receivers and good coaches. Imagine how easy it would be for him to take over from Rivers in Indy or Roethlisberger in Pitt. The Jets were always an impossible gig for such a young QB. 

 

This is how it will end. It's how it always ends with the Jets. I just know it. 

 

Meanwhile, we'll be stuck in yet another disappointingly familiar rebuilding phase, re-living the entire experience with another QB, and with another mediocre coach that'll have the fanbase scratching their heads. 

Groundhog day, with the Jets. 

[BCJet]

14 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

It is not.  There is nothing with his mechanics that are a problem.  Coming out of school he had a longish loop, its gone, was gone by the time he has his pro day.  His release is fine and when he can set all is fine with his mechanics.  

I didnt say he was Mahomes, you know what I meant.  Mahomes passes off his back foot ints incredible, when someone else does its bad mechanics.  

And it is fanspeak because you dont hear "experts" analyze and complain about Darnold mechanics, just fans.

 

 

I have to disagree about the mechanics.  I dont mind the weird arm angles etc, thats what makes him special.

The issue is the 5-6 relatively simple throws from a clean pocket where his feet are simply not married to his arm.  I would have assumed this would be coached into him at this point, but he continues to miss a couple throws a game that he should hit.

I want him to succeed as much as anyone but it just seems like hes panicking a bit, which rushes his body and in turn leads to bad mechanics.  Its a shame a terrible coach and OL led us here with Sam, but he just doesnt look right.