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How Jets will resolve Sam Darnold dilemma? Todd McShay has a hunch


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5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Again, people can hate on any Douglas FA move they want, but:

1) His first draft already has a chance to be better than any draft we've had since 06. 

2) He has leveraged his (very few) assets from a bad roster to attain more draft capital over the next two years than any Jets GM has since . . . Parcells?

* 2007.  The Revis and David Harris class.

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Disaster scenario

Darnold will be back. Its always been most logical scenario.

I support Douglas whichever way he goes.  But I’m also still a believer in Sam if we roll with him.  Either way I think we are in a good spot in terms of draft position/assets and cap space 

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5 hours ago, oatmeal said:

Telling...

When Daniel was asked by Rich what he think the jets would do he said QB. He said no other player in his eyes beyond the QBs warranted that high of a pick including Sewell. Said Pitts was the only one he’d even consider 

 

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16 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Again, people can hate on any Douglas FA move they want, but:

1) His first draft already has a chance to be better than any draft we've had since 07. 

2) He has leveraged his (very few) assets from a bad roster to attain more draft capital over the next two years than any Jets GM has since . . . Parcells?

edit: 07

I couldnt agree more and your above points are exactly the reason why whatever JD ultimately decides with Sam and the #2 pick, I have some faith that it'll be a move that further the Jets in the right direction. I can't argue every point by the JD skeptics, he hasn't been perfect but he has already been so much better than anything we've had in a very long time. Also, when I listen to JD and everything about his background, I just get a feeling like he knows what he is doing. I never once got that feeling with any other GM in the past decade. 

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6 hours ago, MichaelScott said:

I feel like a lot of the praise and positive opinions of Douglas, at leas in part, have to do with just how disastrously inept our GMs have been. After 2 seasons and 1 offseason, the fact that he hasnt already proved he is absolutely clueless is such a significant improvement over any GM of the past 10 years. Typically 1 year into a Jets GM, you're already 90% certain the Jets are destined for another rebuild. 

You had me until the last sentence. After 1 year into Maccagnan I’d say it was more like 90% of Jets fans thought he was the goods. 

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6 hours ago, David Harris said:

Yeah Darnold is teetering on the Josh Rosen abyss

Well it certainly helps when you have a great team and coaching around you.  When you have probably the worst coaching and weakest roster in the NFL around you that hurts you a tad I would think 😂 

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12 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Yeah there are some things I like, some things he gets too much credit for, and more things that are terrible than the first two combined. That doesn't mean he'll be a bad GM; I think a lot of these guys second-guess prior decision-makers and forget about all the whiffs that didn't happen because they weren't calling the shots. So they get a shot and try to show how they're cleverer than the rest. 

It's risky to do that like anything else. Great when high risk moves pay off, but you look worse than anyone else when you go against the grain and flop.

I'm still openminded & hopeful, but too many people have been undeservedly gobbling all his goo already.

It's also easy to bang on the table for high-risk guys when you're in the draft room but not the GM. When you're the one writing the name on the card, it must feel much heavier. Some guys rise to the challenge and manage the responsibility well. Say what you will about John Dorsey but he had the courage of his convictions and never shied from the moment. He went with the guys he wanted, consensus be damned. Other guys like Macc lock up and rush into the warm bosom of "BAP" and thus draft not to lose rather than to win.

Not enough data points on JD yet to know which type he is or somewhere in the middle.

10 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If this really ends up the end game, I'll be right there with you calling for his firing.  

I sincerely doubt this is how this plays out, however.  That would be Maccagnan levels of stupidity and, at bare minimum, no one could reasonably argue Douglas isn't exponentially better than the worst GM in NFL history thus far.

Sam isn't coming back as undisputed starter. First, I believe he's not coming back. If I'm wrong and he does, JD has to bring in some legitimate competition. If he does not, he sucks and I will be on the Fire JD Train.

Self-interest is a wonderful thing though and I believe it will prevent JD from putting all his eggs in the broken Sam basket even if he harbors some belief that Sam is the white whale that will experience a top-3 QB turnaround in NFL history.

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18 minutes ago, jgb said:

It's also easy to bang on the table for high-risk guys when you're in the draft room but not the GM. When you're the one writing the name on the card, it must feel much heavier. Some guys rise to the challenge and manage the responsibility well. Say what you will about John Dorsey but he had the courage of his convictions and never shied from the moment. He went with the guys he wanted, consensus be damned. Other guys like Macc lock up and rush into the warm bosom of "BAP" and thus draft not to lose rather than to win.

Not enough data points on JD yet to know which type he is or somewhere in the middle.

Sam isn't coming back as undisputed starter. First, I believe he's not coming back. If I'm wrong and he does, JD has to bring in some legitimate competition. If he does not, he sucks and I will be on the Fire JD Train.

Self-interest is a wonderful thing though and I believe it will prevent JD from putting all his eggs in the broken Sam basket even if he harbors some belief that Sam is the white whale that will experience a top-3 QB turnaround in NFL history.

I would be fine with bringing in some competition.  I do think some care not taking into account how a better coach and actual talent can significantly help Sam and his confidence.  If JD wants to move on I’m on board with that but if he believes in Dam still I’m also on board because I believe in him too.  

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Just now, Jets723 said:

I would be fine with bringing in some competition.  I do think some care not taking into account how a better coach and actual talent can significantly help Sam and his confidence.  If JD wants to move on I’m on board with that but if he believes in Dam still I’m also on board because I believe in him too.  

Belief is OK but going into 2021 without a legitimate QB Plan B -- or more preferably, Plan A with Sam as Plan B -- is not.

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3 minutes ago, jgb said:

Belief is OK but going into 2021 without a legitimate QB Plan B -- or more preferably, Plan A with Sam as Plan B -- is not.

QB plan B will be whatever 1st round rated  QB falls to 23 -  either Wilson or Lance

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6 minutes ago, jgb said:

Belief is OK but going into 2021 without a legitimate QB Plan B -- or more preferably, Plan A with Sam as Plan B -- is not.

Like I said I have nothing against more competition.  Despite what some say the kid has talent.  Did he have a real bad year?  Hell Yes I would not deny it.  But you got to also admit that he had been in he worst situation than any young QBS I could think of in a long time.  When you prefer Bowles that shows you how bad Gase was 😂.  When you have no weapons or protection from the oline your first 3 years that has a big impact on you. So yeah I’m totally cool with competition but I’d like to see the kid get an shot with actual talent and coaching around him too 

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9 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

Like I said I have nothing against more competition.  Despite what some say the kid has talent.  Did he have a real bad year?  Hell Yes I would not deny it.  But you got to also admit that he had been in he worst situation than any young QBS I could think of in a long time.  When you prefer Bowles that shows you how bad Gase was 😂.  When you have no weapons or protection from the oline your first 3 years that has a big impact on you. So yeah I’m totally cool with competition but I’d like to see the kid get an shot with actual talent and coaching around him too 

He has been in a bad situation. But there are many logic steps we are skipping over between that truth and the assumption that he will perform as an average-or-better QB in a different set of circumstances. Most bad QBs on bad teams just suck. Otherwise, league history would be replete with bad QBs who experienced a sudden and incredible turnaround. This list is very small compared to the list of QBs who were on bad teams and continued to suck for whatever remained of their careers.

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13 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

QB plan B will be whatever 1st round rated  QB falls to 23 -  either Wilson or Lance

That seems an unwise use of resources. Better to get a QB at #2, trade Darnold for whatever you can get, and use the remaining picks to build. It's more likely that you'll get a good OLman at 23 than a good QB.

QBs that drop to back end of 1st round are 2nd or even 3rd round prospects. There's just so much QB inflation.

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10 minutes ago, jgb said:

He has been in a bad situation. But there are many logic steps we are skipping over between that truth and the assumption that he will perform as an average-or-better QB in a different set of circumstances. Most bad QBs on bad teams just suck. Otherwise, league history would be replete with bad QBs who experienced a sudden and incredible turnaround. This list is very small compared to the list of QBs who were on bad teams and continued to suck for whatever remained of their careers.

I disagree.  I’m not skipping over any logic steps.  I think I’ve been very fair.  I’ve pointed out his issues not making excuses.  Like I said if JD wants to start over I’m totally on board.  But I see posts like “If JD believes in Sam we riot or he should be fired” and I just think it’s silly.  No QB would excel in the same situation No matter how good 

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2 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

I disagree.  I’m not skipping over any logic steps.  I think I’ve been very fair.  I’ve pointed out his issues not making excuses 

Fine to disagree. I don't believe Sam will join the Steve Young, Drew Brees club. Different opinions are what makes discussions fun :) 

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6 minutes ago, jgb said:

Fine to disagree. I don't believe Sam will join the Steve Young, Drew Brees club. Different opinions are what makes discussions fun :) 

When did I ever compare him to them?  When did I ever say he would be a pro bowler?  I simply said the kid had talent and had been put in as dreadful a situation as a young QB could possibly be in.  I never once said he would be a great QB.  I do think he could be a real good one if he has actual support though and cleans up some fixable stuff. Gase himself who never takes blame for anything even admitted he negatively impact the kid 

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4 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

When did I ever compare him to them?  When did I ever say he would be a pro bowler?  I simply said the kid had talent and had been put in as dreadful a situation as a young QB could possibly be in.  I never once said he would be a great QB.  I do think he could be a real good one if he has actual support though and cleans up some fixable stuff. Gase himself who never takes blame for anything even admitted he negatively impact the kid 

Apologies, you didn't state it explicitly but I believe it's a natural consequence of your position. If he became a better-than-average QB, he would join the same club as Young and Brees. Not many other QBs that I know of started as bad for as long as Darnold and became "good."

And if you don't think he will be a pro bowler, why keep him at all?

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3 minutes ago, jgb said:

Apologies, you didn't state it explicitly but I believe it's a natural consequence of your position. If he became a better-than-average QB, he would join the same club as Young and Brees. Not many other QBs that I know of started as bad for as long as Darnold and became "good."

It isnt a natural consequence.  I’m sorry but that’s not a fair assumption.  I don’t make assumptions on your stances.  I respect your stance but I don’t say you hate the kid or anything like that.  People who believe in Sam don’t say “He is the next Joe Montana”.  They simply recognize he has talent and has been set up to fail which is the truth so far.  We still admit his flaws and admit he needs to get his confidence back.  

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Just now, Jets723 said:

It isnt a natural consequence.  I’m sorry but that’s not a fair assumption.  I don’t make assumptions on your stances.  I respect your stance but I don’t say you hate the kid or anything like that.  People who believe in Sam don’t say “He is the next Joe Montana”.  They simply recognize he has talent and has been so up to fail which is the truth so far.  We still admit his flaws and admit he needs to get his confidence back.  

Ok. Let's deescalate this. What do you believe his ceiling is?

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4 minutes ago, jgb said:

Apologies, you didn't state it explicitly but I believe it's a natural consequence of your position. If he became a better-than-average QB, he would join the same club as Young and Brees. Not many other QBs that I know of started as bad for as long as Darnold and became "good."

And if you don't think he will be a pro bowler, why keep him at all?

Darnold’s ceiling is maybe top 15 qb, maybe.  Based on espn qbr, mayfield was the 15th best.  Does anyone here really think darnold becomes that good?  Darnold was dead last in espn qbr.  History says that darnold will likely never become a good, quality starter.  This is what parcels always looked for in drafting college qbs, enough games to make a credible conclusion.  Sure, darnold would do better with a new HC, new offensive philosophy and better weapons, but i tell everyone here on opening day if darnold is the jets starter and he throws a pick in the first quarter everyone here will want douglas’ head.  

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Just now, jgb said:

Ok. Let's deescalate this. What do you believe his ceiling is?

I don’t compare him to players.  I’ve never really done that as a sports fan.  Like I mentioned earlier I think he can be a real good QB.  It’s tough to gauge how good he can be because he has been put in such a crappy situation.  His best weapon has been Crowder so far in his pro career. I love Crowder one of my favorite players in the last few years but if you put him on the chiefs or bills or browns he would be probably the 4th option you know what I mean.  Then you take into account the lack of oline and no head coach.  But yeah  that’s my stance.  If you want me to be completely honest he does have a gunslinger mentality so turnovers will happen BUT they would drastically decrease with a better coach and support around him 

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1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

Darnold’s ceiling is maybe top 15 qb, maybe.  Based on espn qbr, mayfield was the 15th best.  Does anyone here really think darnold becomes that good?  Darnold was dead last in espn qbr.  History says that darnold will likely never become a good, quality starter.  This is what parcels always looked for in drafting college qbs, enough games to make a credible conclusion.  Sure, darnold would do better with a new HC, new offensive philosophy and better weapons, but i tell everyone here on opening day if darnold is the jets starter and he throws a pick in the first quarter everyone here will want douglas’ head.  

The only difference between Darnold and Geno is that one of them has a lousy attitude and is one of the more unlikeable players in the league. We need to separate the person from the player and admit what Darnold is.

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1 minute ago, Jets723 said:

I don’t compare him to players.  I’ve never really done that as a sports fan.  Like I mentioned earlier I think he can be a real good QB.  It’s tough to gauge how good he can be because he has been put in such a crappy situation.  His best weapon has been Crowder so far in his pro career. I love Crowder one of my favorite players in the last few years but if you put him on the chiefs or bills or browns he would be probably the 4th option you know what I mean.  Then you take into account the lack of oline and no head coach.  But yeah  that’s my stance.  If you want me to be completely honest he does have a gunslinger mentality so turnovers will happen BUT they would drastically decrease with a better coach and support around him 

He would need a Young/Brees turnaround to get there, is my point. If you have more fitting examples, I'm all ears. Or do you think it would literally be unprecedented? That's also not very convincing.

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Just now, jgb said:

He would need a Young/Brees turnaround to get there, is my point.

Well not just them.  We have seen it plenty of times.  Let me put it this way if we did trade him it would not surprise me to see him excel.  But like I’ve said a few times now I’m totally on board if we move in another direction because I trust JD.  However it seems like Sam still has a lot of believers Around the league possibly including these coaches we are interviewing.  I’ve just noticed a lot of venom Jet fans have been putting in Sam over the past few months and not too long ago they were huh in him and knew that the organization did a horrible job building around him 

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2 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

Well not just them.  We have seen it plenty of times.  Let me put it this way if we did trade him it would not surprise me to see him excel.  But like I’ve said a few times now I’m totally on board if we move in another direction because I trust JD.  However it seems like Sam still has a lot of believers Around the league possibly including these coaches we are interviewing.  I’ve just noticed a lot of venom Jet fans have been putting in Sam over the past few months and not too long ago they were huh in him and knew that the organization did a horrible job building around him 

I hear you. I would be surprised if he excels. The list of QBs who have done it versus those that continued to suck forever is very short indeed.

I do agree there are those around the league who believe Sam could turn it around. I also believe he could -- just that we know from history that the odds are not good. Some teams will be interested in him as a reclamation project no doubt. But I don't see any GM investing in him as its presumptive 2021 starter. Believing something could happen and betting your career on it are two different things IMHO.

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***BREAKING!!!***

**My sources tell me**
 

1. They actually like everyone that they interviewed 

2. Joe Douglas isn’t favoring any coach that wants to keep Darnold because of his contract situation and poor play (Joe will never admit this to anyone because he has to give the impression he’s doing what’s best for the team and not what’s most beneficial to his future) 
 

3. This coaching search could linger out because the team announced they will be “casting a wide net”

4. more surprising interviews will pop in the coming days 

**this is Just my sources opinions on what they hear is going on, everything posted is subject to change***

 

My sources I can reveal them if anyone needs to know 

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11 minutes ago, jgb said:

The only difference between Darnold and Geno is that one of them has a lousy attitude and is one of the more unlikeable players in the league. We need to separate the person from the player and admit what Darnold is.

i cringe when i see draft analysts like mcshay and kiper refer to their draft grades for darnold coming out of USC.  how is that even remotely relevant now?  i get that they're analysts and that's their job.  but if their job were based on choosing one qb or another, i'd love to see these guys risk it all for the lowest ranked starting qb in the league last year.  i agree that darnold would see some improvement with a new regime and talent, but i think it would be only modest. 

if the jets wind up hiring saleh and they bring in a WCO type of offense i can see them wanting wilson to run that.  he would be great in that offense.  he'd be everything the 49ers thought they were getting with jimmy G. 

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3 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

i cringe when i see draft analysts like mcshay and kiper refer to their draft grades for darnold coming out of USC.  how is that even remotely relevant now?  i get that they're analysts and that's their job.  but if their job were based on choosing one qb or another, i'd love to see these guys risk it all for the lowest ranked starting qb in the league last year.  i agree that darnold would see some improvement with a new regime and talent, but i think it would be only modest. 

if the jets wind up hiring saleh and they bring in a WCO type of offense i can see them wanting wilson to run that.  he would be great in that offense.  he'd be everything the 49ers thought they were getting with jimmy G. 

This is why I believe we are not getting a premium pick in a Darnold trade. It's easy for GMs to talk anonymously how Darnold has the talent to turn it around but another to bet their careers on it. There will be teams interested in Darnold. He will come in as a backup. He will need to climb back to relevance like Tannehill, IMHO. Probably best for him, too. He needs a year on the bench and will probably benefit from it.

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1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

i cringe when i see draft analysts like mcshay and kiper refer to their draft grades for darnold coming out of USC.  how is that even remotely relevant now?  i get that they're analysts and that's their job.  but if their job were based on choosing one qb or another, i'd love to see these guys risk it all for the lowest ranked starting qb in the league last year.  i agree that darnold would see some improvement with a new regime and talent, but i think it would be only modest. 

if the jets wind up hiring saleh and they bring in a WCO type of offense i can see them wanting wilson to run that.  he would be great in that offense.  he'd be everything the 49ers thought they were getting with jimmy G. 

That’s nothing but sweet nothings to:

1. justify their darnold scouting 

2. Not letting Sams market value sink into the abyss 

3. Click bait for Jet and OSU fans. Unfortunately the polarizing NYJ and Justin Fields are the targets of the media’s clickbait program. 

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2 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

That’s nothing but sweet nothings to:

1. justify their darnold scouting 

2. Not letting Sams market value sink into the abyss 

3. Click bait for Jet and OSU fans. Unfortunately the polarizing NYJ and Justin Fields are the targets of the media’s clickbait program. 

#1 rings very true. Just like us fans will cling to our previous assessments long after all evidence has demonstrated that we were wrong. This is especially true with QBs. There are still some here lying dormant now that will emerge like earthworms after rain next time Geno starts a game or throws a TD in mop up duty. If/when Darnold is no longer a Jet, his defenders will still argue that it was the Jets who failed him. 

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13 minutes ago, jgb said:

I hear you. I would be surprised if he excels. The list of QBs who have done it versus those that continued to suck forever is very short indeed.

I do agree there are those around the league who believe Sam could turn it around. I also believe he could -- just that we know from history that the odds are not good. Some teams will be interested in him as a reclamation project no doubt. But I don't see any GM investing in him as its presumptive 2021 starter. Believing something could happen and betting your career on it are two different things IMHO.

Oh well agree to disagree I guess

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