Hayden Hurst available for trade?

[jetstream23]

2 hours ago, varjet said:

It would need to be a sign and trade to be worth losing the draft pick.

Can’t they trade him and let the Jets pick up the option? Then he’s under contract for two years. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Good info on their cap standing. Didn’t realize how tight they are. Ok, you changed my opinion. Thanks.

Damn, I was too late.  LOL.

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I don't see what's in it for Atlanta to let him go for so little. They just traded a 2nd rounder for him in March. 

What's really bizarre in Atlanta's case is that Hurst's option year would've been just $5.4MM (which they're apparently not exercising, though the deadline is today). If anything I'd think it would make Hurst's trade value higher if he's locked in at that in 2022 after less than half that in 2021. And what'd be the worst-case downside for them -- no one making a good enough trade offer, and having Hurst count $2MM and $5MM the upcoming 2 seasons?

Keep in mind they can't get a comp pick for him after the team turns down a team-option year. The league correctly did away with that ridiculous loophole. **Edit: Yes they can; I forgot they only did away with it on veteran contracts the team negotiated. 5th year options are baked into the cake for every 1st round pick so they could still recoup a comp pick if they let him play out this year.

Anyway, I legitimately don't understand what they're doing here. 

Yes.  Me neither.  Lets take advantage.  Lets be the less dumb team in every transaction wherever possible.

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Isnt Hurst like 30 and needs a new contract?

27 and still on his rookie deal.  1st round pick in 2018.  

[Jetsfan80]

33 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

so while it's no shame to not be considered as good as andrews or pitts, it is interesting to note 2 teams using valuable draft capital on hurst, only to move from him within 2 years.

My best guess:  It's a unique circumstance, him having been a 24 year old (about to be 25) rookie in 2018.  Guys like that carry value but there's a ceiling to it if you're not elite right away.  If you're not a top 5 TE or so, the value of TE's 6-25 are "flattened" a bit, to where everyone in that group is looked at about the same.  Hurst is older than a lot of the guys in that group. 

Follow the money, and you'll see that TE's are massively underpaid if they're not in the elite group.  Well, I guess underpaid is the wrong word.  Chalk it up to "market inefficiency".  For a full explanation behind THAT, you'll need someone well above my pay grade to explain it, but I'm sure injury risk is a big part of it.  TE's who rarely line up like WR's get hurt.  A lot.  If they can't be WR/TE hybrids, and are constantly playing with an offensive hand in the dirt, they get hurt all the time. 

See below for the TE pay scale and you'll notice a fairly swift downward trend after TE4/TE5, then everyone from then on is really close in salary:

 

Player	Team	Age	Total Value	Avg./Year	Total Guaranteed	Fully Guaranteed	Free Agency
George Kittle	49ers	28	$75,000,000	$15,000,000	$40,000,000	$23,633,000	2026 UFA
Travis Kelce	Chiefs	32	$57,250,000	$14,312,500	$27,000,000	$20,750,000	2026 UFA
Hunter Henry	Patriots	27	$37,500,000	$12,500,000	$25,000,000	$25,000,000	2024 UFA
Jonnu Smith	Patriots	26	$50,000,000	$12,500,000	$31,250,000	$31,250,000	2025 UFA
Austin Hooper	Browns	27	$42,000,000	$10,500,000	$23,000,000	$18,500,000	2024 Void
Zach Ertz	Eagles	31	$42,500,000	$8,500,000	$20,000,000	$13,318,527	2022 Void
Kyle Pitts	Falcons	21	$32,910,588	$8,227,647	$0	$0	2022 ERFA
Jimmy Graham	Bears	35	$16,000,000	$8,000,000	$9,000,000	$9,000,000	2022 UFA
Rob Gronkowski	Buccaneers	32	$8,000,000	$8,000,000	$8,000,000	$8,000,000	2022 Void
Darren Waller	Raiders	29	$29,800,004	$7,450,001	$16,520,004	$3,220,004	2024 UFA
Tyler Higbee	Rams	28	$29,000,000	$7,250,000	$15,025,000	$10,025,000	2024 UFA
Jack Doyle	Colts	31	$21,300,000	$7,100,000	$12,250,000	$10,250,000	2023 UFA
Nick Boyle	Ravens	28	$13,000,000	$6,500,000	$10,500,000	$10,500,000	2024 UFA
C.J. Uzomah	Bengals	28	$18,300,000	$6,100,000	$6,250,000	$6,250,000	2022 UFA
Cameron Brate	Buccaneers	30	$18,050,000	$6,016,667	$3,750,000	$3,750,000	2024 Void
Gerald Everett	Seahawks	27	$6,000,000	$6,000,000	$6,000,000	$6,000,000	2022 Void
Kyle Rudolph	Giants	32	$12,000,000	$6,000,000	$4,500,000	$4,500,000	2023 UFA
Eric Ebron	Steelers	28	$12,000,000	$6,000,000	$5,000,000	$5,000,000	2022 Void
Blake Jarwin	Cowboys	27	$22,000,000	$5,500,000	$9,250,000	$6,250,000	2024 UFA
T.J. Hockenson	Lions	24	$19,821,226	$4,955,307	$19,821,226	$19,821,226	2023 UFA
Jared Cook	Chargers	34	$4,500,000	$4,500,000	$4,500,000	$4,500,000	2022 UFA
Marcedes Lewis	Packers	37	$8,000,000	$4,000,000	$2,100,000	$2,100,000	2023 Void
Robert Tonyan	Packers	27	$3,384,000	$3,384,000	$0	$0	2022 UFA
Mo Alie-Cox	Colts	28	$3,384,000	$3,384,000	$0	$0	2022 UFA
Chris Manhertz	Jaguars	29	$6,650,000	$3,325,000	$4,250,000	$4,250,000	2023 UFA
Ryan Griffin	Jets	31	$9,550,000	$3,183,333	$4,328,823	$4,328,823	2023 UFA

 

Hurst has top 10 TE ability.  Let everyone else discount his value due to age and the potential of their other, younger TE(s) on the roster.  

[GreenReaper]

Definitely worth looking into a possible trade.  No one knows for sure if signed UDFA Kenny Yeboah will work out and provide that upgrade Jets need. 

IMO Jets offense is just a productive pass catching TE away from being a complete offense.  Maybe not one of the best.  But one that's a balanced mainstream caliber one.  That's versatile and dangerous enough that it won't be an easy pushover for DCs to game plan for.     

[Jetsfan80]

27 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

WADR Edge &CB will tie up money at positions of greater value. TE needs an upgrade, but the other 2 more important 

When will that happen?  We don't have an EDGE or CB to pay any time soon.  We already signed Lawson this offseason, so that's already absorbed in the cap numbers. 

We have $25M in cap space prior to signing the rookies.  That's plenty to make a few more moves now, and we don't need to carry anything over.  We've got $65M+ in projected cap space next offseason.

Passing on Hurst to sign some unknown player or to save to pay Quinnen Williams/Becton/etc seems silly.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yes.  Me neither.  Lets take advantage.  Lets be the less dumb team in every transaction wherever possible.

I don't know what it'd take to be the highest bidder, but it's surely less than Atlanta paid a year ago: a 2nd rounder (#55) and a 5th (#157) for Hurst and a 4th (#134).

But Hurst had another year on his rookie contract then, and it could be argued he just wasn't outplaying Andrews, who was good almost immediately. Now this is 2 teams in 2 years moving on from him, and Atlanta is locked into Pitts and their $2MM blocking TE.

From a cap standpoint it'd be roughly a wash for the Jets by dumping Griffin (though there's no rush to do so before camp). Also with so much room next year - largely from having Wilson instead of Darnold (let alone a $35MM veteran) at QB - I think they could roll the dice on exercising the option. FFS they were happy to sign Griffin to the same $3.5MM/year rate. 

[32EBoozer]

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

When will that happen?  We don't have an EDGE or CB to pay any time soon.  We already signed Lawson this offseason, so that's already absorbed in the cap numbers. 

We have $25M in cap space prior to signing the rookies.  That's plenty to make a few more moves now, and we don't need to carry anything over.  We've got $65M+ in projected cap space next offseason.

Passing on Hurst to sign some unknown player or to save to pay Quinnen Williams/Becton/etc seems silly.

I knew once we lost DW our brief fling has come to an end. I don’t see JD doing the deal...... sorry! CB and LB/Edge first.

Hope it works out well for you

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

They traded him away because they already had Mark Andrews. He would be an immediate upgrade at TE for us. 

They didn't exactly already have Mark Andrews.  Hurst was 25 overall and 3rd rounder Mark Andrews has never had a season as bad as Hurst's best.  I wouldn't have a problem with kicking the tires, but this guy is far from a must get, and he is going to be a free agent.  He is talented, but not a top TE.  On a team with a fanbase this excited about Kenny Yerboah, I wanting to go after him.  

[Jetsfan80]

22 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I don't know what it'd take to be the highest bidder, but it's surely less than Atlanta paid a year ago: a 2nd rounder (#55) and a 5th (#157) for Hurst and a 4th (#134).

But Hurst had another year on his rookie contract then, and it could be argued he just wasn't outplaying Andrews, who was good almost immediately. Now this is 2 teams in 2 years moving on from him, and Atlanta is locked into Pitts and their $2MM blocking TE.

From a cap standpoint it'd be roughly a wash for the Jets by dumping Griffin (though there's no rush to do so before camp). Also with so much room next year - largely from having Wilson instead of Darnold (let alone a $35MM veteran) at QB - I think they could roll the dice on exercising the option. FFS they were happy to sign Griffin to the same $3.5MM/year rate. 

 

Let's not overthink this like you do. 

❤️ you

[Jetsfan80]

14 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

I knew once we lost DW our brief fling has come to an end. I don’t see JD doing the deal...... sorry! CB and LB/Edge first.

Hope it works out well for you

But you're saying he WON'T do it.  Are you also saying he SHOULDN'T?  Your take is weird.  You're being weird right now.  I thought you already were coming around on this.

[JustInFudge]

If JD pulled this off and somehow brought in an adequate starter level vet, I'd do dirty dirty things to him.

sorry @The Crusher

 

[32EBoozer]

9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

But you're saying he WON'T do it.  Are you also saying he SHOULDN'T?  Your take is weird.  You're being weird right now.  I thought you already were coming around on this.

I would be absolutely on board with bringing in Hearst for a mid to late ‘22 pick.

I am also saying that I don’t think tight end is JD‘s priority right now. This may be Atlanta just putting out some feelers… They are not going to take the first offer on the table. They are going to camp and see how things play out.

I think cornerback, linebacker and more offensive line depth is his priority.

[32EBoozer]

21 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

They didn't exactly already have Mark Andrews.  Hurst was 25 overall and 3rd rounder Mark Andrews has never had a season as bad as Hurst's best.  I wouldn't have a problem with kicking the tires, but this guy is far from a must get, and he is going to be a free agent.  He is talented, but not a top TE.  On a team with a fanbase this excited about Kenny Yerboah, I wanting to go after him.  

@Jetsfan80 for your consumption and consideration. #27 sums it up nicely.

Boozer.

[The Crusher]

41 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

If JD pulled this off and somehow brought in an adequate starter level vet, I'd do dirty dirty things to him.

sorry @The Crusher

 

To be honest if you squint be tough to tell us apart 

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

They didn't exactly already have Mark Andrews.  Hurst was 25 overall and 3rd rounder Mark Andrews has never had a season as bad as Hurst's best.  I wouldn't have a problem with kicking the tires, but this guy is far from a must get, and he is going to be a free agent.  He is talented, but not a top TE.  On a team with a fanbase this excited about Kenny Yerboah, I wanting to go after him.  

He had a  disappointing season as a #1 TE on the highest volume passing offense in the NFL.  He disappears at times.  If the Jets can steal him - 6th round pick or so, I'd consider it, but I think the Jets are better off trying to develop their own TE if the price is higher than that considering his age and him coming to the end of his rookie contract.  

[Joe W. Namath]

Just now, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

He had a  disappointing season as a #1 TE on the highest volume passing offense in the NFL.  He disappears at times.  If the Jets can steal him - 6th round pick or so, I'd consider it, but I think the Jets are better off trying to develop their own TE if the price is higher than that considering his age and him coming to the end of his rookie contract.  

This.  I want no part of him.  He bombed last year in Atlanta.  They let go of an aging Austin Hooper for him and he disappointed greatly.

[Jet_Engine1]

2 hours ago, Creepy Lurker said:

Doesn’t fit what Saleh is looking for. “ALL GAS”. Solids will not work. 

[56mehl56]

2 hours ago, Creepy Lurker said:

Doesn’t fit what Saleh is looking for. “ALL GAS”. Solids will not work. 

Yes but the situation is fluid . 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, 32EBoozer said:

@Jetsfan80 for your consumption and consideration. #27 sums it up nicely.

Boozer.

OK but you didn't say any of that, at any point prior.

[Jethead]

Hurst would be a significant upgrade at a position of need. Young QB's best friend is his TE and all that. Wish I had more faith in Herndon but his ship sank with Sam's.

[Shockwave]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

27 and still on his rookie deal.  1st round pick in 2018.  

He will be 28 in August. Will need a contract for his age 29 season.  

This guy is a TOTAL JAG. He CAN NOT block. 

His receiving is average. Last season is his upside as hes likely never getting 88 targets/15 Red zone targets again. 

Herndon put up similar stats in 2018 with 30 less targets with a lesser QB. The Jets didn't go after another guy who didn't block in Gerald Everett for free?. Why would they go after Hurst which would cost a draft pick?

[Jetsfan80]

33 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

He will be 28 in August. Will need a contract for his age 29 season.  

This guy is a TOTAL JAG. He CAN NOT block. 

His receiving is average. Last season is his upside as hes likely never getting 88 targets/15 Red zone targets again. 

Herndon put up similar stats in 2018 with 30 less targets with a lesser QB. The Jets didn't go after another guy who didn't block in Gerald Everett for free?. Why would they go after Hurst which would cost a draft pick?

 

Now this is a well-reasoned take.  Thanks for the insight.  Didn't know about Hurst's blocking deficiency.  If you can't block, you probably can't play in this offense.  Kittle can block, he just happens to also be an elite receiver in SF.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, 32EBoozer said:

I would be absolutely on board with bringing in Hearst for a mid to late ‘22 pick.

I am also saying that I don’t think tight end is JD‘s priority right now. This may be Atlanta just putting out some feelers… They are not going to take the first offer on the table. They are going to camp and see how things play out.

I think cornerback, linebacker and more offensive line depth is his priority.

 

Once again, this is a take on why Douglas will NOT do this.  Not a take on why he SHOULDN'T.  

The draft is over and its a long way to September.  For better or worse, these are the kinds of players we're going to be debating from here on out.  Some being longer shots to shake loose than others.

[32EBoozer]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Once again, this is a take on why Douglas will NOT do this.  Not a take on why he SHOULDN'T.  

No.... I said yes to signing him. End of sentence - Full Stop.

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

I would be absolutely on board with bringing in Hearst for a mid to late ‘22 pick.

I also commented why it was unlikely. Full Stop. End of sentence.

Both can be true simultaneously.

[RoadFan]

Like some of you, I haven't given up on Herndon.

The Jets did not draft a TE, so they haven't either...

Usually after a year like he had, I write a player off as trash.  I think Herndon will rebound big time with the new staff.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

No.... I said yes to signing him. End of sentence - Full Stop.

I also commented why it was unlikely. Full Stop. End of sentence.

Both can be true simultaneously.

 

Thank you for confirming.  

[32EBoozer]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Thank you for confirming.  

You can sleep well tonight my friend.

[jetfan61]

Send them Herndon and a 6th...

[56mehl56]

1 hour ago, RoadFan said:

Like some of you, I haven't given up on Herndon.

The Jets did not draft a TE, so they haven't either...

Usually after a year like he had, I write a player off as trash.  I think Herndon will rebound big time with the new staff.

We do know the system utilizes the TE as evidenced by the emergence of Kittle in SF. Herdon had the dropsies last year but TE's were highly under-utilized in Gases offense and were used more often as inline blockers.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a major rebound by Herndon this season.

[OCCH23]

I openly admit the recent state of Jetdom has led me to not pay as much attention to football in general, but listening to you guys talk I'm embarrassed to say I never even heard of the guy . . .

 

[nj meadowlands]

Deal Crowder for him? Or would that create further cap problems for Atlanta.

[Shockwave]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Now this is a well-reasoned take.  Thanks for the insight.  Didn't know about Hurst's blocking deficiency.  If you can't block, you probably can't play in this offense.  Kittle can block, he just happens to also be an elite receiver in SF.

My point would be: 

If you're going for a receiving tight end in the last year of his deal that can't block you might as well go for Njoku. Although I would argue the Jets just could have signed Gerald Everett. 

If you want a Tight end that could block and catch passes we could trade for OJ Howard or Mo Allie Cox. 

The guys that do both like Kittle are just extremely rare and worth every penny. Its kind of why Tremble kind of was reached on this year in the draft. They never have to leave the field. Otherwise you're essentially just getting receiving tight ends and at that point guys like Herndon/Hurst/Everett may all be in one tier. 

I personally think Mo Allie Cox and OJ Howard are criminally underused in their respective offenses and would either be amazing players to trade for or great guys to sign next year in FA. Great Blockers that just don't get enough targets to be superstars. 

 

 

[Shockwave]

55 minutes ago, nj meadowlands said:

Deal Crowder for him? Or would that create further cap problems for Atlanta.

I would think the best thing to offer them in a small deal is Perine. Cap issues and they didn't draft a rb.