RAS of Every Joe Douglass Draft Pick To Date

[Warfish]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's an important part of the puzzle and should be treated as such.

A part, yes.  I agree with this statement.  

[Jets Voice of Reason]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I never said it IS the "most vital thing" (though for pass rushers in particular, it's hugely important).  I just hate when silly mouth breathers shrug it off or deny it has ANY importance.  That's Mike Maccagnan thinking.  He dismissed measurables too and the results weren't good. 

Don't be a Mike Maccagnan.  It's an important part of the puzzle and should be treated as such.

Gholston had a bad shuttle and above 7 second 3-cone, elevating the risk of his athletic profile. Hence my comment on RAS having flaws too when looking at overall scores. It's useful, but a better system for evaluating edge especially is probably needed.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Wait, so, Johnthan Marshall is Elite?

[Jets Voice of Reason]

3 minutes ago, derp said:

I dunno, linebackers are big and fast nowadays. While people were saying 4.59 wasn’t a bad time for Kyle Hamilton as a safety, he would’ve been the lightest linebacker and 12th out of 24 in the 40. Granted this year’s linebacker class is very athletic, but I think if you run those guys at linebacker it’s still average.

If they take a LB, it'll be interesting to see what they do in regards to what profile they look for there. Does Muma, Beavers, Anderson, or Weatherford fit? Is Tindall a match? etc.

[Barry McCockinner]

4 minutes ago, Warfish said:

A part, yes.  I agree with this statement.  

Your first post in the thread was agreeing with a post that said RAS is stupid. Now you agree that it's part of the puzzle (which is exactly what I suggested in the OP). Good to see some progress being made so quickly.

[Barry McCockinner]

4 minutes ago, Zachtomims47 said:

Wait, so, Johnthan Marshall is Elite?

He's an elite athlete. Doesn't make him an elite football player.

I forgot we even drafted him until I made this thread tbh.

[#27TheDominator]

9 minutes ago, derp said:

I dunno, linebackers are big and fast nowadays. While people were saying 4.59 wasn’t a bad time for Kyle Hamilton as a safety, he would’ve been the lightest linebacker and 12th out of 24 in the 40. Granted this year’s linebacker class is very athletic, but I think if you run those guys at linebacker it’s still average.

I dunno either.  Just pointing out that their RAS would not be the same at LB as it was at S.  I think part of the reason the LB class is getting more athletic is because more guys that would have been S only in the past are being billed at LB. 

[BeaconJet]

My two cents - RAS is just another tool in the toolbox for evaluating and comparing prospects. I think for certain positions, I would give more weight to RAS than others - EDGE and other defenders, WR and RB on offense for example. I would expect most GMs weigh on the field performance more than RAS, but where everything else is equal, you'd rather have a better athlete than a lesser athlete.

[#27TheDominator]

11 minutes ago, BeaconJet said:

My two cents - RAS is just another tool in the toolbox for evaluating and comparing prospects. I think for certain positions, I would give more weight to RAS than others - EDGE and other defenders, WR and RB on offense for example. I would expect most GMs weigh on the field performance more than RAS, but where everything else is equal, you'd rather have a better athlete than a lesser athlete.

I think it isn't that effective for RB.  Size and speed are important, so is burst and agility, but the biggest fastest guys are not generally the best. It's more vision, moves and feel. 

I think when you find some undrafted level guys with tremendous RAS, you will generally find your good special teamers as long as they have the attitude.

[Warfish]

18 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Your first post in the thread was agreeing with a post that said RAS is stupid. Now you agree that it's part of the puzzle (which is exactly what I suggested in the OP). Good to see some progress being made so quickly.

Athleticism as is specifically relates to the position being played is of course part of the puzzle.  

A strict adherence to Great RAS = Great Pro is not.

My apologies if my rhetoric on this was unclear.  I'm not saying to ignore the athletic scores of a player.

I'm saying it's one factor, of many, in a proper player evaluation.  A great RAS along with other demonstrable factors might push a guy up my chart, a sub-par RAS might be a warning if other warnings exist as well.  And a disaster RAS might exclude a guy, of course, outside late-round low-value picks.

But as Mims and Gholston clearly show, you can be very athletic, and still suck as a football player.  

Note:  the same goes for the old Wonderlick Test too.  It too is a tool for evaluation.

[derp]

20 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I dunno either.  Just pointing out that their RAS would not be the same at LB as it was at S.  I think part of the reason the LB class is getting more athletic is because more guys that would have been S only in the past are being billed at LB. 

Hamilton at 220 would’ve been the lightest of the LB group, so I don’t know if it’s the safeties being billed at linebacker. Big dudes are just getting faster. Walker and Thibodeaux both were faster than Hamilton like 272 and 258 or something like that.

[jNYC1]

Predicting NFL success is wild.

Tough business when great traits, great college production, great character, great work ethic are not guarantees of success…

[derp]

10 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I think it isn't that effective for RB.  Size and speed are important, so is burst and agility, but the biggest fastest guys are not generally the best. It's more vision, moves and feel. 

I think when you find some undrafted level guys with tremendous RAS, you will generally find your good special teamers as long as they have the attitude.

The RB position also gets drafted so much based on college hype and trends. Why you’ve got Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire going in the first coming from big time programs with pass catching RB’s previously undervalued with guys like Jonathan Taylor and now probably Breece Hall - both of whom are big and athletic with vision but not as passing game active and not coming from super successful college programs - likely slipping to the second day.

[jamesr]

59 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Correlation doesn't mean it happens 100 % of the time, and I wasn't suggesting it does by saying "100 %".  I was saying it's 100 % factual to suggest that a high RAS score is indeed highly correlated with pass rusher success.

Ice cream sales, for instance, are highly correlated with shark attacks.  It doesn't mean every time a kid buys an ice cream cone there's also going to be a shark attack that day.  It just means shark attacks are far more likely to occur in the summer than any other time of year.  Much the same way, high athleticism makes it far more likely a pass rusher will have success, and far more unlikely that a pass rusher will not if he lacks elite athleticism.

Don't argue math stuff if you don't have a basic understanding of how it works.  I know very little but I at least have some basic understanding of how a correlation works.

Also have to be careful not to mix up correlation and causation ...

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/kjh2110/the-10-most-bizarre-correlations

 

[JohnnyLV]

59 minutes ago, derp said:

 

Last year I was thinking receiver wasn’t a big need with Crowder-Cole-Davis and a new coaching staff that came from a team that used 3WR sets at a low rate and with Crowder and a lot of 2 wide slot receiver in particular was off the table, then they went with a long view and took Moore - who has more inside-outside versatility than I gave him credit for.

 

This is literally false. Even the most 12 personnel focused teams in the NFL STILL have 11 as their predominant personnel alignment by a lot. Even SF, who not only ran more than 50% of plays from 11 but ran disguised 11 as 21 with Deebo a lot. Three WR sets are the absolute core of the NFL

[JohnnyLV]

50 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

He's an elite athlete. Doesn't make him an elite football player.

I forgot we even drafted him until I made this thread tbh.

Marshall showed good promise at the end of last year. He could become a fine player for us.

[David Harris]

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I don't know anything, I'm speculating -- if you read my post that's pretty clear.

My point is that I don't know if "Relative Athletic Score" is something  NFL front offices give a sh*t about, in terms of these specific scores/metrics -- I don't know if NFL front office personnel are referencing "can you believe the RAS on that guy?"

But clearly some of the underlying scores on there are significant and if you notice a trend clearly Douglas favors great athletes with lots of upside.

 

RAS is important.  It often sets a ceiling.  If a CB runs a 4.6 he get still be good in college but isn't a thoroughbred and will be outclassed in the NFL.  Damontre Moore and Jarvis Jones were great at football in college.  Didn't have the athletic abilities.  Look at college basketball - tons of guys are great at basketball but if they aren't tall enough of can't jump high enough they'll never be great in the pros.  Size and speed are factors, not everything but very important.

 

[derp]

14 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

This is literally false. Even the most 12 personnel focused teams in the NFL STILL have 11 as their predominant personnel alignment by a lot. Even SF, who not only ran more than 50% of plays from 11 but ran disguised 11 as 21 with Deebo a lot. Three WR sets are the absolute core of the NFL

I intended to write “relative to other teams” but didn’t. I kind of figured it was implied, but I’ll edit the post and clarify here. So not literally false, but I was too vague and you misinterpreted.

Regardless, the rate at which SF was running three wide made the third receiver a part time player and not effectively a starter like other teams, which is a relevant difference.

And SF wasn’t running those sets with Deebo in the backfield when this coaching staff came over.

[Barry McCockinner]

2 minutes ago, David Harris said:

RAS is important.  It often sets a ceiling.  If a CB runs a 4.6 he get still be good in college but isn't a thoroughbred and will be outclassed in the NFL.  Damontre Moore and Jarvis Jones were great at football in college.  Didn't have the athletic abilities.  Look at college basketball - tons of guys are great at basketball but if they aren't tall enough of can't jump high enough they'll never be great in the pros.  Size and speed are factors, not everything but very important.

 

???

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, Stark said:

an average RAS of 7.63

the interesting thing, and I didn't know that the M Carters were both as low as they are. they both played well. I probably would have guessed them in the mid 7 to mid 8 range based on the "on field play"

From the pastes above, it seems that average was brought down a lot by Morgan. If he was drafted to be a pocket passer, no one cares about his 40 time, vertical & broad jumps, etc. 

Also these are adjusted for position, no? I mean, does it grade a CB's 40 time on the same "athletic" level as a NT's 40 time? Reason I'm asking is these seem to have a position pretty locked in, where a LB/S 'tweener could be graded here as a pure safety. 

Still doesn't mean it's definitive of who'll be good or bad, though I'd think anyone would conclude one with a lower score has more neck-up stuff to overcome. But for defenders, for example, it's not going to measure reaction time. Gholston above is a good example - or I guess Mr. 4.6-4.8 speed safety Hamilton in this draft - if his anticipation is a lot faster he'll reach his destination earlier than a safety with 4.45 speed; or if he doesn't take crappy angles he doesn't need to make up as much ground, also narrowing (if not eliminating) the speed disparity. Problem is in a leg race downfield there'll just be times he won't be able to keep up. Any lack of early anticipation moving up or changing direction and he's toast with any decent throw because he doesn't have the recovery speed. 

Still, it's interesting stuff, admittedly. I do think a lot of it is hindsight key & lock not lock & key in praising or criticizing someone in hindsight because of a RAS: great players with lower scores probably get ignored, and people have already been posting great scores by guys who just suck, since blindly looking at these scores presumes they've all got the same smarts & instincts upstairs.

[UntouchableCrew]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 That's Mike Maccagnan thinking. 

The ultimate insult.

[Larz]

******* Sherwood ???

hey let’s take a crap athlete and make him switch positions after jumping to the NFL level ???

[Larz]

1 hour ago, jNYC1 said:

Predicting NFL success is wild.

Tough business when great traits, great college production, great character, great work ethic are not guarantees of success…

The art of the draft is predicting the future. What happens when a guy signs a contract worth a few million bucks at age 22 ?  
 

even if he’s motivated, has he peaked?  Is there room for growth?

the academy’s they go to now prep them to hide any faults 

[UntouchableCrew]

5 minutes ago, Larz said:

******* Sherwood ???

hey let’s take a crap athlete and make him switch positions after jumping to the NFL level ???

Not saying it was as good pick but obviously switching positions changes the score and his relative athleticism.

[T0mShane]

2 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

One interesting thing about the above is how Sherwood and Nasrildeen scored out.  Sherwood in particular sucked, but if you rated his speed at LB instead of S he'd probably be somewhat better than very poor.  Likewise, Nasrildeen would probably lost some of his "elite" size compared to LBs. 

i stumbled upon this when looking at Mockdraftable before, but Nasrildeen and Sherwood are like 90th percentile in arm length.

[BigRy56]

? Joe Douglas is sprung ???

[Larz]

9 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Not saying it was as good pick but obviously switching positions changes the score and his relative athleticism.

Today I learned R is relative to position group. I always thought it was the players weight ?

 

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

Lol, ok. 

Apparently you may not understand that "100% correlate except for Ghoslston" fails the logic test. 

It cannot "100% correlate" if even one example exists where it does not if fact correlate.

But again, this same old argument is boring at this point.  You're a RAS zealot type fan, and that's cool.  You're a guy who would have picked Mims and Gholston because of their great RAS's.  You like workout warriors.  To each their own.

I see you edited your post.  FFS I wasn’t saying it correlates 100 % of the time and you know that.

Yes, I’m a zealot for drafting athletes coming off a prior GM who never did. Sue me.

[Warfish]

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I see you edited your post.  FFS I wasn’t saying it correlates 100 % of the time and you know that.

I think we've exchanged enough on this point by now.  

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yes, I’m a zealot for drafting athletes coming off a prior GM who never did. Sue me.

Why would I sue you, you're very much entitled to your opinions, prejudices and biases. 

I respect that you think differently, no harm, no foul.  We agreed on the one point you made, as noted.

[Warfish]

48 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

? Joe Douglas is sprung ???

That's an impressive score. 

So where is this kid currently being projected to go in the draft, with his elite athleticism?

[jamesr]

For info ...

https://ras.football/2017/05/05/relative-athletic-scores-directly-correlate-to-sack-production-in-the-nfl/

Yes, it's written by the RAS site praising RAS, but it follows the discussion in this thread so far.

 

[jetstream23]

FYI - Vera-Tucker's low size grade was due to height at over 6'4" which seems odd but was somewhat impacted because he was rated against OTs and not OGs.  In other words, ignore that bright red 2.2 height rating. Context is everything with these ratings.

 

[jetstream23]

39 minutes ago, Warfish said:

That's an impressive score. 

So where is this kid currently being projected to go in the draft, with his elite athleticism?

 

Probably Round 6.

 

 

Don't draft on RAS alone. ?

 

[Grandy]

Remember him being floated around as a TE prospect. No bueno. 

RAS obviously isn't the end all be all of scouting, but it shows some useful things. Not every guy with a crazy high score ends up being great, but guys with low scores rarely if ever become good. In the comments it said that no TE has succeeded with such a low score, and that a score of 6 seems to be the bar for the position.

[Anthony Jet]

5 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I think it's stupid when people feel the need to repeat the last word of an acronym when using it in a sentence. This is called redundant acronym syndrome.

RAS syndrome (where "RAS" stands for "redundant acronym syndrome", making the phrase "RAS syndrome" homological) is the use of one or more of the words that make up an acronym (or other initialism) in conjunction with the abbreviated form. This means, in effect, repeating one or more words from the acronym.

For example: RAS scores are stupid.

You know what else grinds my gears? When people say 9AM in the morning or 9PM at night. Why do you feel the need to say it twice?

@Boozer32

 

 

You know what really burns my ass?

 

 

A flame about this high