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Flawed Jets logic that needs to be corrected this offseason


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21 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Please add yours…

1. When your defense is supposedly at its best with a lead (Commanders game aside), starting off games trying not to fall behind (conservative mindset) rather than trying to score points (aggressive mindset)

2. Treating AVT as both a Guard and next up OT.  IMO, this fallback has prevented us from adequately investing in the OT position, has possibly increased AVT’s injury risk and has had a domino effect that has killed the cohesiveness of this unit

3. At QB, believing that ARod can simply make an otherwise poor offensive unit good enough.  Just look at what Flacco is now accomplishing with a real offense in Cleveland, even with injured OTs / Pro Bowl RB

4. Telling the world Zach needs a full year to reset and then making him the primary backup behind an aging QB .. protected by the Jets OL .. on the Meadowland’s turf .. under the dark cloud that hangs over this franchise.  Hope is not a strategy!

5. Investing in NFL ready by year 2 or 3 players when the window is now

6. Believing the NFL is a defensive league.  It hasn’t been for like 10 years

7. Getting sentimental with aging vets or leaders.  CJ Mosley needs to take a $10M pay cut off his $17M salary or be released.  This money needs to go to the Offense.  Sorry … good but VASTLY OVERPAID player

8. Sunk cost fallacy.  Yes, we can upgrade Laken Tomlinson and still save net cap by getting rid of his $12.6M salary.  We’ll never recoup the signing bonus .. and shouldn’t perpetuate the mistake.  Bye Uzomah, don’t let the door hit you on your costume tail

9. Beholden to your system.  Use the offseason to build in flexibility to have Sauce mirror the Lamb’s and Waddle’s of the NFL world .. etc, etc.

10. It’s ok to invest in a developmental QB.  I’m pretty sure it’s your job JD to tell Rodgers that’s what we are going to do as we balance short and long term

The Jets lost here as much as anywhere else managing an NFL team.  Good teams start with sound logic, winning (leading edge) strategies, risk/reward analysis and flexibility to adapt.  All leading to smart decisions, something that was severely lacking leading into this past season

Well said!

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13 minutes ago, ASH1962 said:

So you are asking hardcore cult members to change their beliefs and practices. Good luck with that. Get ready for the same crap as this season with the exception of (hopefully) AR not getting hurt 4 plays into the season. We can all look forward to AR becoming insufferable once they start losing next year, and once he starts getting banged around like a 41 year old rag doll. This CS & GM are what they are and will never change regardless of what us dopey fans say or think. After 3 awful noncompetitive losing seasons, we have seen proof that they just do not have the wherewithal to change and make things better for their players. The only one that matters is Woody tRump and as the head of the cult, he thinks and purports to believe in these guys.

I’m not optimistic.  

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2 hours ago, Ron Rico said:

I wasn't going to even open this thread, but I'm glad I did. Among all of the mindless, egregious errors, signing Dalvin Cook, when they did, for why they did was pure folly. The rationale was, with Breece coming off season ending surgery, it made sense to get a "just in case" RB. 

Well why did they draft Izzy? Why didn't they get a FA RB before they signed Rodgers? 

Was it Rodgers idea, nay, demand that they sign Dalvin Cook? 

It was a brainless decision, whoever's idea it was. 

 

 

Yep, that’s the point of the thread.  Decisions without sound reasoning or supporting data typically fall flat.

4 plus years into JD’s tenure and the offense doesn’t even have an identity.  It’s basically a head scratching medley of individual players that mostly don’t even fit together.

Zach is coached to be a game manager, taking away his 1 or 2 strengths.  Couldn’t they have found someone else better suited for this role?

Breece and Dalvin?  How do they compliment each other?

The OLine personality?  Fat and uninspired.

Tight Ends?  Secondary pieces even though the 2 TE set has been our most successful package.

Wide Receivers?  1 guy who can get open blended with a bunch of guys who cannot.

A Chef (OC) who tried the same recipe with Zach as he planned for Rodgers.

Anyone else remember we signed Laken to be the RG with AVT at LG, only to backtrack and put Laken at LG and then surprise AVT with a position switch?  No thought about the puzzle pieces ..  

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5 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I'd add that the reliance on veterans to a fault is an issue with Saleh.

The challenge here seems to be that many/most fans are arguing for "win now" players and NOT putting guys and allowing them to develop.  Now, that's changed a bit with the Rodgers injury and the losing record, but it seems like people want it both ways.  I want both as well, to play the best guys in a win-now phase where the Rodgers window will soon close AND to develop these younger guys like Tippmann, McDonald. Carter, Abinakanda, etc. so that the Jets know if they can let older, more expensive guys move on.

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4 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

The challenge here seems to be that many/most fans are arguing for "win now" players and NOT putting guys and allowing them to develop.  Now, that's changed a bit with the Rodgers injury and the losing record, but it seems like people want it both ways.  I want both as well, to play the best guys in a win-now phase where the Rodgers window will soon close AND to develop these younger guys like Tippmann, McDonald. Carter, Abinakanda, etc. so that the Jets know if they can let older, more expensive guys move on.

Hard to take this regime serious about development when you have Izzy but go out and sign a washed up Cook. Or run Uzomah out there rather than  give snaps to Reikert. Or the mess they're about to make when Huff goes bye bye. Or dare we mention develop a pro backup QB in Mike White and let him go for nothing. Even when they have the young players to develop, the franchise makes hash of it. 

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1 minute ago, Bugg said:

Hard to take this regime serious about development when you have Izzy but go out and sign a washed up Cook. Or run Uzomah out there rather than  give snaps to Reikert. Or the mess they're about to make when Huff goes bye bye. Even when they have the young players to develop, the franchise makes hash of it. 

Signing Cook was fine with me given Breece coming off the ACL and Izzy being a rookie.  BUT, after a few weeks the snap counts should have shifted dramatically.  Signing guys is one thing, the coaches deciding who to play is another.  And, they should be getting Izzy 6-10 touches every game.

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1 minute ago, football guy said:

I’ve already spoken at length RE: how they train, coach, and develop their offensive lineman in the offseason, but I want to take aim at something else you somewhat allude to in here.

This Jets coaching staff is awful at self scouting. You mention Tippmann not playing to start the season but there are many more examples. Bryce Huff got his job by accident- people forget Saleh had him playing behind Jacob Martin (who they wound up trading a few games later) despite Huff showing real flashes of pass rush brilliance in limited situations during the 2020 and 2021 campaigns. Breece Hall was stuck playing behind Michael Carter last year (who they infamously released this year) for the first 4 games until he forced their hand. Garrett Wilson was the 4th receiver to begin last year and was a slot-only player until they finally admitted their mistake, moved him outside and Elijah Moore inside. Same can be said for Elijah Moore- why are you using him as an X/Z when he is clearly best in the slot? Not playing Ruckert nearly enough when he’s clearly the best blocking TE and has more upside as a pass catcher than any TE not named Conklin. The whole benching of Zach Wilson for Tim Boyle when they claimed they knew Zach was the best QB they had while failing to condemn the OL play. Thinking it was a good idea to have Brown as the starting LT after logging zero reps in TC, and actually planning on starting Turner/Mitchell at RT until Becton forced their hand in a preseason game. Entering the season with the mindset that Carl Lawson was going to start over Jermaine Johnson. I’m sure there are many more examples, but it just reeks of not knowing what you have in your own players. 

They're gonna lose Huff for nothing. Teams go nuts trying to find pass rushers. They have a great one under their noses and made a mess of it. 

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2 minutes ago, Bugg said:

They're gonna lose Huff for nothing. Teams go nuts trying to find pass rushers. They have a great one under their noses and made a mess of it. 

I can’t see him going for nothing. I do get the feeling he’ll be gone, but via tag & trade. Guys who have been less productive than him have netted first/second round picks in recent years + a massive extension. He’s only 25 and among the most productive pass rushers in the league despite a limited role… I think the Jets would get late second-round value at the very least 

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18 minutes ago, football guy said:

I’ve already spoken at length RE: how they train, coach, and develop their offensive lineman in the offseason, but I want to take aim at something else you somewhat allude to in here.

This Jets coaching staff is awful at self scouting. You mention Tippmann not playing to start the season but there are many more examples. Bryce Huff got his job by accident- people forget Saleh had him playing behind Jacob Martin (who they wound up trading a few games later) despite Huff showing real flashes of pass rush brilliance in limited situations during the 2020 and 2021 campaigns. Breece Hall was stuck playing behind Michael Carter last year (who they infamously released this year) for the first 4 games until he forced their hand. Garrett Wilson was the 4th receiver to begin last year and was a slot-only player until they finally admitted their mistake, moved him outside and Elijah Moore inside. Same can be said for Elijah Moore- why are you using him as an X/Z when he is clearly best in the slot? Not playing Ruckert nearly enough when he’s clearly the best blocking TE and has more upside as a pass catcher than any TE not named Conklin. The whole benching of Zach Wilson for Tim Boyle when they claimed they knew Zach was the best QB they had while failing to condemn the OL play. Thinking it was a good idea to have Brown as the starting LT after logging zero reps in TC, and actually planning on starting Turner/Mitchell at RT until Becton forced their hand in a preseason game. Entering the season with the mindset that Carl Lawson was going to start over Jermaine Johnson. I’m sure there are many more examples, but it just reeks of not knowing what you have in your own players. 

again, this is not a simple problem of "we have to be better at self scouting."

These guys are completely inept.  Maybe when AR8 plays next year he will set them straight and tell the coaches who to play.  But the amount of football knowledge in that building is very, very low.  It ain't getting fixed by self-improvement, and it ain't getting fixed by a new GM/HC.  This is in large part caused by the permanent incompetent bureaucracy that Woody employs.  

The Jets are not a serious team until Woody sells it, or at least hands it over to a real person to run it.   Hess was the same way, and the Jets were not fixed until the organization was Parcells-ized.  That lasted 10 years after he left.  Once the last of Parcells guys was run out (Tannenbaum), after he was sufficiently corrupted by Woody, the organization has not been the same since. 

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1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

The challenge here seems to be that many/most fans are arguing for "win now" players and NOT putting guys and allowing them to develop.  Now, that's changed a bit with the Rodgers injury and the losing record, but it seems like people want it both ways.  I want both as well, to play the best guys in a win-now phase where the Rodgers window will soon close AND to develop these younger guys like Tippmann, McDonald. Carter, Abinakanda, etc. so that the Jets know if they can let older, more expensive guys move on.

Starting Billy Turner isn’t a win now move.

They had enough ends without Lawson. It’s not like he’sa bad player or anything, when healthy, but they just didn’t need him even on a win now team.

I’m going to spare you from rehashing my whole post, but there seems little point in drafting positions that are planned to be pre-buried from the outset because some just-ok and some outright bad players get undeserved depth chart boosts. 

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1 hour ago, football guy said:

I can’t see him going for nothing. I do get the feeling he’ll be gone, but via tag & trade. Guys who have been less productive than him have netted first/second round picks in recent years + a massive extension. He’s only 25 and among the most productive pass rushers in the league despite a limited role… I think the Jets would get late second-round value at the very least 

The catch is tagging him is some $22-23MM for the year. I don’t think any team is matching that, let alone offering up a 2nd rounder or higher for the privilege. The tag amount is used as a ballpark baseline annual amount at a minimum, and it’s doubtful Huff is in or near that pay tier yet.

He got a 2nd rounder RFA tender just last season and no one was interested.

He’d have to get at least two more sacks in the last two games to even imagine this situation, and even then I still don’t see it happening.

His ceiling smells like $15MM/yr to me. Maybe a hair more max depending on the new cap ceiling coming up. Probably he gets less, though. In any case it’s not near all pro money like the franchise tag.

If the Jets tag him, he’s theirs and will be just a situational edge rusher for a crazy amount, for just one more season, after which he’ll be a UFA again in ‘25. 

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1 hour ago, football guy said:

I’ve already spoken at length RE: how they train, coach, and develop their offensive lineman in the offseason, but I want to take aim at something else you somewhat allude to in here.

This Jets coaching staff is awful at self scouting. You mention Tippmann not playing to start the season but there are many more examples. Bryce Huff got his job by accident- people forget Saleh had him playing behind Jacob Martin (who they wound up trading a few games later) despite Huff showing real flashes of pass rush brilliance in limited situations during the 2020 and 2021 campaigns. Breece Hall was stuck playing behind Michael Carter last year (who they infamously released this year) for the first 4 games until he forced their hand. Garrett Wilson was the 4th receiver to begin last year and was a slot-only player until they finally admitted their mistake, moved him outside and Elijah Moore inside. Same can be said for Elijah Moore- why are you using him as an X/Z when he is clearly best in the slot? Not playing Ruckert nearly enough when he’s clearly the best blocking TE and has more upside as a pass catcher than any TE not named Conklin. The whole benching of Zach Wilson for Tim Boyle when they claimed they knew Zach was the best QB they had while failing to condemn the OL play. Thinking it was a good idea to have Brown as the starting LT after logging zero reps in TC, and actually planning on starting Turner/Mitchell at RT until Becton forced their hand in a preseason game. Entering the season with the mindset that Carl Lawson was going to start over Jermaine Johnson. I’m sure there are many more examples, but it just reeks of not knowing what you have in your own players. 

Ummmmmmm tis 100%!

 

carnegie hall gifs | WiffleGif

Some of these moves putting the QB aside, were just CRAZY!!!

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1 hour ago, football guy said:

I’ve already spoken at length RE: how they train, coach, and develop their offensive lineman in the offseason, but I want to take aim at something else you somewhat allude to in here.

This Jets coaching staff is awful at self scouting. You mention Tippmann not playing to start the season but there are many more examples. Bryce Huff got his job by accident- people forget Saleh had him playing behind Jacob Martin (who they wound up trading a few games later) despite Huff showing real flashes of pass rush brilliance in limited situations during the 2020 and 2021 campaigns. Breece Hall was stuck playing behind Michael Carter last year (who they infamously released this year) for the first 4 games until he forced their hand. Garrett Wilson was the 4th receiver to begin last year and was a slot-only player until they finally admitted their mistake, moved him outside and Elijah Moore inside. Same can be said for Elijah Moore- why are you using him as an X/Z when he is clearly best in the slot? Not playing Ruckert nearly enough when he’s clearly the best blocking TE and has more upside as a pass catcher than any TE not named Conklin. The whole benching of Zach Wilson for Tim Boyle when they claimed they knew Zach was the best QB they had while failing to condemn the OL play. Thinking it was a good idea to have Brown as the starting LT after logging zero reps in TC, and actually planning on starting Turner/Mitchell at RT until Becton forced their hand in a preseason game. Entering the season with the mindset that Carl Lawson was going to start over Jermaine Johnson. I’m sure there are many more examples, but it just reeks of not knowing what you have in your own players. 

Yeah but some of those examples are rookies. And they made them earn it; Breece, Garrett, Tippmann. Grading them on a Jets scale I am happy they figured it out in 3 or 4 weeks in those cases.

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14 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The catch is tagging him is some $22-23MM for the year. I don’t think any team is matching that, let alone offering up a 2nd rounder or higher for the privilege. The tag amount is used as a ballpark baseline annual amount at a minimum, and it’s doubtful Huff is in or near that pay tier yet.

He got a 2nd rounder RFA tender just last season and no one was interested.

He’d have to get at least two more sacks in the last two games to even imagine this situation, and even then I still don’t see it happening.

His ceiling smells like $15MM/yr to me. Maybe a hair more max depending on the new cap ceiling coming up. Probably he gets less, though. In any case it’s not near all pro money like the franchise tag.

If the Jets tag him, he’s theirs and will be just a situational edge rusher for a crazy amount, for just one more season, after which he’ll be a UFA again in ‘25. 

I know transition tag not used rarely ever but who knows whether used as a threat behind close doors.

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17 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Cobb was of course only here because of Rodgers, but the decision to hand him the WR3 job with so many snaps falls to Saleh and Hackett. As a WR4-5, ok whatever if Rodgers is in the huddle. Once that came and went after 4 plays that reacharound for Rodgers should've ended. What was the point of having Gipson and Charles and Brownlee make the final roster if they weren't going to see the field until October-November? Add Taylor to that mix once they dumped Hardman (another great pickup). 

Amen...

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9 hours ago, Maxman said:

Yeah but some of those examples are rookies. And they made them earn it; Breece, Garrett, Tippmann. Grading them on a Jets scale I am happy they figured it out in 3 or 4 weeks in those cases.

Yeah recognizing who can play and who can’t is the least of this staffs issues (other than being forced to play Zach)

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18 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Please add yours…

1. When your defense is supposedly at its best with a lead (Commanders game aside), starting off games trying not to fall behind (conservative mindset) rather than trying to score points (aggressive mindset)

2. Treating AVT as both a Guard and next up OT.  IMO, this fallback has prevented us from adequately investing in the OT position, has possibly increased AVT’s injury risk and has had a domino effect that has killed the cohesiveness of this unit. I don't think the Jets ever used AVT as 'next up OT'. Only emergency OT. And IMO, that is fine. Its good having versatile O-linemen who can play multiple positions. AVT was never slotted in as a backup OT, only brought in due to multiple injuries at the position. Maybe I'm wrong? But I think this was something fans assumed of the coaching staff.  

3. At QB, believing that ARod can simply make an otherwise poor offensive unit good enough.  Just look at what Flacco is now accomplishing with a real offense in Cleveland, even with injured OTs / Pro Bowl RB. Again, I don't think THAT was ever the intention. I don't think the thinking was- Ok, now we got Rodgers, we don't need to improve our offense. Looking back at how poorly Lazard played without Rodgers and how poorly Cook played with this banged up o-line, I think its very easy for fans to say - well why didn't JD bring in receiver X or RB Y or another OT, etc., etc.  

4. Telling the world Zach needs a full year to reset and then making him the primary backup behind an aging QB .. protected by the Jets OL .. on the Meadowland’s turf .. under the dark cloud that hangs over this franchise.  Hope is not a strategy!

5. Investing in NFL ready by year 2 or 3 players when the window is now. I'm not sure exactly what this means but I got a newsflash for you. Every team, win now or in rebuild mode, will have young, developmental players that will need to be contributors. Every NFL team will depend on them to a certain degree. 

6. Believing the NFL is a defensive league.  It hasn’t been for like 10 years. Maybe, but every playoffs we see games where defenses turn the tide for a tide, keep them in games, etc., etc. Defense is still very much an important aspect of football. Every time you see a powerhouse offense without a great defense, you say - well their defense is crap and vice versa. Everyone knows the best teams have a balance of offense and defense. 

7. Getting sentimental with aging vets or leaders.  CJ Mosley needs to take a $10M pay cut off his $17M salary or be released.  This money needs to go to the Offense.  Sorry … good but VASTLY OVERPAID player. Again, I think this is a 'fan's view'. I don't think anyone is actually being 'sentimental'. JD did not sign Mosley to this monster contract. And like you said, Mosley IS a good player. He's already restructured once as a Jet and yes, he could take a pay cut. But I don't understand why fans think there's sentimentality here. The Jets don't really have a replacement for him, he's important to the defense, he's a good player and he carries a ton of dead cap. JD is a bad spot with his contract, he's not sentimental. 

8. Sunk cost fallacy.  Yes, we can upgrade Laken Tomlinson and still save net cap by getting rid of his $12.6M salary.  We’ll never recoup the signing bonus .. and shouldn’t perpetuate the mistake.  Bye Uzomah, don’t let the door hit you on your costume tail. Again, same as above. I don't think coaches or the GM are actually as concerned about the sunk cost as fans are. I think replacing players is tougher than fans think and the cost is higher than fans think. And the idea that you will find a guy who is a good fit is something fans don;t think about at all while coaches and GM think about a lot.  

9. Beholden to your system.  Use the offseason to build in flexibility to have Sauce mirror the Lamb’s and Waddle’s of the NFL world .. etc, etc.

10. It’s ok to invest in a developmental QB.  I’m pretty sure it’s your job JD to tell Rodgers that’s what we are going to do as we balance short and long term. I kind of think Zach was that guy. But yes, in general I def. agree. 

The Jets lost here as much as anywhere else managing an NFL team.  Good teams start with sound logic, winning (leading edge) strategies, risk/reward analysis and flexibility to adapt.  All leading to smart decisions, something that was severely lacking leading into this past season

I agree with a lot of the points and logic. But there are some very common 'fan-isms' that I feel like I have to point out. 

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10 hours ago, Maxman said:

Yeah but some of those examples are rookies. And they made them earn it; Breece, Garrett, Tippmann. Grading them on a Jets scale I am happy they figured it out in 3 or 4 weeks in those cases.

Counter argument is that coach waited too long to start these guys and is stubbornly inept.

This is the same coach who same-day Amazon delivered the starting job to ZW2 without any QB competition or earned merit.

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Just now, Augustiniak said:

The flawed logic that qbs can only be found in round 1 at the top of the draft and that you shouldn’t draft qbs on day 2 even when you’ve invested a first round pick on a qb.  

In the same draft, Mike Shanahan (future HOF) drafted a QB in the 1st round and then another in the 4th (who turned out to have a pretty damn good career).

KEEP INVESTING IN THE MOST IMPORTANT POSITION IN ALL OF SPORTS! Then invest some more !

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