Barnwell on Jets: They have a plan

[nj meadowlands]

Not what people here want to read, lolllll.  But an interesting take.  And from (I'm pretty sure) a Pats fan.

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/new-york-jets-running-backs/

 

Explaining the Jets: Yes, They Definitely Have a Plan

 

Over the past week, Jets general manager John Idzik has come under fire for perceived slights with his work building the 2014 team. A New York Daily News article by Jets beat writer Manish Mehta on Saturday was followed by an embarrassing 31-0 loss in San Diego. Quarterback Geno Smith, Idzik’s second-round pick from the 2013 draft, played dismally before being benched, with postgame reports revealing that Smith had missed a team meeting Saturday. All in all, it was a pretty rough weekend for Idzik.

While I won’t pretend the Jets looked remotely competent during their loss to the Chargers, I can’t agree that Idzik has made a mess of running his football team during his two-year tenure. There have been missteps, just as there are with any general manager, but Idzik has executed a clear plan that makes a lot of sense. Criticisms of his performance miss the logic behind a number of Idzik’s decisions.

Take, for example, the idea that Idzik is somehow frugally holding on to his cap space while Jets fans shell out for some of the most expensive tickets in the league. This isn’t late-’90s baseball. There’s absolutely no relationship between in-stadium ticket prices and team spending; every team in the NFL has more than enough money to spend beyond the salary cap, by virtue of the league’s massive national television contract. The economics of one simply have nothing to do with the other. The Jets charge a ton for tickets because they think the market will give them a ton for tickets.

Gang Green has just less than $24 million in cap space, the second-largest figure in football behind the Jaguars ($29 million). It’s natural to think in the short term that the Jets would be better if they had committed that $24 million to players in free agency this offseason, but that ignores two simple concepts.

One is the idea of cap rollover — namely, if the Jets don’t spend that $24 million this year, they can roll it over to create more space on next year’s cap. They weren’t able to do that this offseason, having carried over just $1.5 million in cap space from 2013, which was below the league median of $2.3 million. While the NFL salary cap next year is estimated to be about $140 million, the Jets will get to spend up to $164 million.

Second is the concept of opportunity cost. Spending that money on players now means you’re unable to carry that money over to the future, when you may very well have better (or more expensive) talent available to pursue. It also takes away roster spots from young players who come through the draft, which is where you’re always going to find the most surplus value to build the most sustainable, effective football team.

Look at Idzik’s past and you can see whom he’s emulating. Idzik came from Seattle, where the general manager is John Schneider, who comes from the Ted Thompson tree of managers. Thompson-style general managers hoard draft picks, maintain cap flexibility, and generally avoid the middle class of free agency, only occasionally jumping into the water for a big splash. In fact, the only real missteps Schneider has made during his time at the helm in Seattle have come in free agency, as big deals for players like Matt Flynn, Sidney Rice, and Zach Miller have produced disappointing results, while short-term deals for Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril were wildly successful.

With that surely in mind, Idzik’s philosophy in free agency has been mostly to stick with short-term, low-risk contracts. He went deep for wideout Eric Decker, filling what even Idzik critics would agree was a massive hole by getting the best free agent available at the position with a five-year, $36.25 million deal. Also, offensive lineman Breno Giacomini signed a four-year, $18 million contract. Otherwise, contracts for veterans like Chris Johnson, Jason Babin, and Michael Vick have all been relatively short, cheap, or both. That’s not Idzik trying to pinch pennies. It’s Idzik emulating the success of the Seahawks, the Packers, and (although Jets fans might not want to hear it) the Patriots. Bad teams spend to the cap for the sake of spending money.

Idzik had to operate in the low-cost free-agent market because there was very little left in the cupboard when he took over. This was the depth chart in January 2013, shortly before Idzik joined the Jets. It features, by my count, just 17 players who are still on the Jets roster, and most of the departed are veterans who are either done playing football or disappointing on somebody else’s roster. Should Idzik have used the cap space he had to re-sign the likes of Shonn Greene, Austin Howard, or LaRon Landry, who each got ponderously large deals elsewhere?

It’s fair to say many of the short-term stopgaps haven’t paid out, and some have embarrassed the team. Mehta cites the off-field issues of players like Kellen Winslow Jr. and Mike Goodson as evidence it was a mistake to sign them, while cornerback Dimitri Patterson bizarrely signed before the 2014 season and had to be released, leaving the Jets perilously thin. Mehta treats David Garrard as a “notable acquisition,” which is odd for a quarterback who was signed to a one-year deal for the league minimum. In virtually all these cases, Idzik was throwing a short-term solution at the wall and hoping it stuck. Better Vick at $2 million for one year than, say, Josh McCown at two years and $10 million.

Given where the Jets are, that’s not a stupid idea. As I wrote about in the team’s preseason preview, previous general manager Mike Tannenbaum frequently traded up in drafts and used draft picks to acquire veterans, leaving the Jets with virtually nothing on their current roster from their 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 drafts. Idzik surely wants to replace those absent holes with draftees, but it takes time to acquire those picks and develop those players.

And it’s hard to say that Idzik has been a subpar drafter. His first selection in 2013, cornerback Dee Milliner, struggled in much the same way most rookie cornerbacks do before suffering a high ankle sprain that has kept him out for virtually all of the 2014 campaign.¹ Idzik’s other first-rounder, Sheldon Richardson, won defensive rookie of the year. Brian Winters, the team’s third-round pick, has been disappointing at guard. It seems insane to suggest it’s time to evaluate Idzik’s 12 picks from the 2014 draft beyond noting that it’s frustrating to see fourth-rounder Jalen Saunders already released. Idzik’s draft record may turn out to be unsatisfactory, but it’s far too soon to tell.²

Look at the depth chart of the Seahawks from October 1 of Schneider’s second year with the team as a sign of how much work still had to be done. Schneider had already acquired Marshawn Lynch, but Lynch was a mess who didn’t break out until later in the 2011 season. Richard Sherman was just a fifth-round pick who hadn’t started an NFL game. The likes of Aaron Curry and Marcus Trufant were still hanging out in serious roles on the roster, while veteran fill-ins like Robert Gallery and Alan Branch would play meaningful roles that year.

Most notably, pay attention to the most important spot of all: quarterback. Schneider surely knew he wasn’t going to win a ton of football games with Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback, even after making the mistake of trading a third-round pick and swapping second-round picks to acquire Whitehurst from the Chargers.

Instead of spending to the limit to try to squeeze a 9-7 season out of a football team with no prayer of going far in the playoffs, Schneider maintained flexibility, trusted his ability to draft and develop talent, and waited for the right quarterback opportunity to come. Eventually he found Russell Wilson, and the rest is history.

The truth for Idzik and the Jets right now is that it doesn’t matter what they do elsewhere in terms of winning now without a quarterback. They’re bad enough at that position that the other moves they make are just window dressing — a series of short-term decisions and drafted lottery tickets to set them up for that moment when they actually have the quarterback they need to succeed. That’s not what Rex Ryan or Jets fans want to hear, but it’s the reality of where they’re at in the NFL. Idzik still has to execute that plan, and it won’t matter until he finds that quarterback, but he’s on the right track.

As for Ryan and the Jets? Expectations were likely too high coming into the season. The Jets were 8-8 last year, but they were outscored by 97 points, which is the point differential of a 5.4-win team. That win-loss record included an unsustainable 5-1 performance in games decided by a touchdown or less, including two miraculous wins driven by unlikely late-game penalties on the Buccaneers and Patriots. The Jets already had two seven-point losses and an eight-point loss on their résumé this year before Sunday’s blowout. If they had enjoyed just an average amount of luck in close games last year and gone 5-11, Ryan probably would have been fired. Now, regardless of what Idzik does, Ryan will probably suffer that fate.

[Warfish]

Good article, though I doubt anyone here will agree.

[neckdemon]

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.

[stevegrunder]

His plan is a joke.

 

His entire plan requires Geno Smith (yep, that guy) in order to succeed. He has given himself no alternatives whatsoever. If Geno does not show major progress, Idzik enters year 3 of his "plan" with major question marks at the QB position.

 

Regardless of what most think, this team is not going to finish 3-13. The worst case will be 6-10. We have a lot of winnable games, and we will be in save Rex's job mode.

 

That means we will have a pick in the 10-15 range more than likely, not high enough to get a Mariota, who himself would be a question mark.

 

Taking Geno and giving him the keys was incredibly dumb. What makes it dumb is that he did not draft another QB this past draft, leaving himself with no backup plan for Geno whatsoever.

 

His drafts suck, not only from a talent acquisition, but from a strategy standpoint. I don't get my panties in a wad over not spending money on this team as is now, but his drafts have both been a joke.

 

2 drafts and virtually no improvement on offense is unimaginable.

 

The guy is in way over his head, and its no surprise either. Moron Woody narrowed the talent pool by forcing Rex on the next GM, so he only got what was left of the candidates who are dumb enough to be willing to take the job under that pretense.

[kay_gee]

^ can't believe this guy's not the GM.

[RutgersJetFan]

I don't see what there is here to disagree with. The Jets have a plan and it's a plan that makes sense, but they've executed it horrendously. You absolutely cannot build a team in the NFL when you draft this poorly. It's really that simple.

[bitonti]

And it’s hard to say that Idzik has been a subpar drafter

 

. Idzik’s draft record may turn out to be unsatisfactory, but it’s far too soon to tell.

 

what a pile. That whole "it takes 4 years to evaluate a draft class" kinda goes out the window when half the class isn't on the team anymore

[Ken Schroy]

Seems like a fair assessment. It still sux having to endure this horror show on Sundays.

[T0mShane]

Poor Rex. Steamrolled by the plan. Why couldn't we get Megatron???

[CM28]

Jesus. Why should this be wrong and your never ending bitchin be right?

This is probably more true than wrong. Aren't you tired of reading an interesting article/post and then see all the crying and nonexistent productive feedback?

This site sucks so much sometimes..

[slats]

I don't see what there is here to disagree with. The Jets have a plan and it's a plan that makes sense, but they've executed it horrendously. You absolutely cannot build a team in the NFL when you draft this poorly. It's really that simple.

This. There's no doubt that there's a plan in place, but building thru the draft requires much better drafting. It's not too soon to judge this draft as far as how many players they cut - including fourth and fifth rounders. Given the QB situation, there were names available at the position they could've taken with those picks that might've been a better alternative than Boyd, or even the great Matt Simms.

And Barnwell contradicts himself when he says on the one hand that Idzik won't spend on high-priced, long term free agents but -whoopee!- they'll have a salary cap of $164M dollars next year! Is Idzik expected to deviate from the plan when he has all that money, or just buy a lot more of those brilliant, Seattle-style band-aids? The Idzik fans here have been saying that he'll spend when he has his QB, but it doesn't look like he'll know that for sure until 2016 at the earliest. The good news is that year he should have about $80M in cap space.

[dbatesman]

Barnwell considers Phil Emery "GM of the future" because he gives lengthy press conferences.

[Gastineau Lives]

This. There's no doubt that there's a plan in place, but building thru the draft requires much better drafting. It's not too soon to judge this draft as far as how many players they cut - including fourth and fifth rounders. Given the QB situation, there were names available at the position they could've taken with those picks that might've been a better alternative than Boyd, or even the great Matt Simms.

And Barnwell contradicts himself when he says on the one hand that Idzik won't spend on high-priced, long term free agents but -whoopee!- they'll have a salary cap of $164M dollars next year! Is Idzik expected to deviate from the plan when he has all that money, or just buy a lot more of those brilliant, Seattle-style band-aids? The Idzik fans here have been saying that he'll spend when he has his QB, but it doesn't look like he'll know that for sure until 2016 at the earliest. The good news is that year he should have about $80M in cap space.

 

He keeps going like this, he's out of a job by 2016.

[Jack Straw]

I love how the author just makes stuff up. "Better Vick at $2 million for one year than, say, Josh McCown at two years and $10 million." That would be awesome, if, ya know, it was correct. Vick signed a 1 year deal for $5 million, so why the f*ck is he talking about Vick at $2 million/year?

[T0mShane]

We're blaming John Idzik for Tajh Boyd now.

[slats]

We're blaming John Idzik for Tajh Boyd now.

No. Blaming him for not taking a QB before Boyd. You wanted him to take a QB in the first round. Would they still've taken Boyd in the sixth? Maybe, maybe not. I don't care. But they had opportunities to grab some big names at the position in the draft as late as their 5th rounder.

[AFJF]

No matter what the plan is, he's doing a poor job at executing it because too many moves/non-moves contradict any one line of thought.

[BroadwayJets]

I agree with the whole article, but Idzik needs a better scouting department in order for it to work.

 

By saying this, I assume we will have a different QB and coach next season

[JetsFanInDenver]

I don't see what there is here to disagree with. The Jets have a plan and it's a plan that makes sense, but they've executed it horrendously. You absolutely cannot build a team in the NFL when you draft this poorly. It's really that simple.

 

This. There's no doubt that there's a plan in place, but building thru the draft requires much better drafting. It's not too soon to judge this draft as far as how many players they cut - including fourth and fifth rounders. Given the QB situation, there were names available at the position they could've taken with those picks that might've been a better alternative than Boyd, or even the great Matt Simms.

 

As i saying yesterday on one of these threads, the implementation of the plan leaves a lot to be desired. But the beauty of it is this can all be corrected without setting back the organization by half a decade. Heck we have a better draft next season and given our cap space we might be in the thick of it.

 

But Idzik needs to replace some parts in the FO and if he does not get rid of Rex i hope next draft around they just put Rex in solitary confinement somewhere far away from the draft room. I think Rex's influence on the draft is what derail's this organization from acquiring talent. In Idzik's first season most picks looked like BPA's. In this year's draft the 1st, 3rd and 5th round picks on top of the 6th round pick for a QB were picks that sure look like they were picks heavily influenced by Rex. I am still hope for Pryor and maybe MacDougal contributes down the road BUT no way MacDougal deserved a 3rd round pick.

[bitonti]

  The Idzik fans here have been saying that he'll spend when he has his QB, but it doesn't look like he'll know that for sure until 2016 at the earliest. The good news is that year he should have about $80M in cap space.

 

 

I can't wait until 2030 when the Jets will have infinity cap space. It will really help when they play the Mars Jaguars. 

[T0mShane]

No. Blaming him for not taking a QB before Boyd. You wanted him to take a QB in the first round. Would they still've taken Boyd in the sixth? Maybe, maybe not. I don't care. But they had opportunities to grab some big names at the position in the draft as late as their 5th rounder.

I did. I wanted Bortles or Bridgewater in the first as a way to hedge the bet. Now, we hope he has an answer at QB. Hope is all we need.

[detjetsfan69]

The plan is to suck and be the permanent side show for the Giants.

[stevegrunder]

I did. I wanted Bortles or Bridgewater in the first as a way to hedge the bet. Now, we hope he has an answer at QB. Hope is all we need.

 

Had Idzik done that, I would have a totally different stance on Idzik. The fact that he didn't, leaves me very disturbed with his incompetence

[T0mShane]

No matter what the plan is, he's doing a poor job at executing it because too many moves/non-moves contradict any one line of thought.

The worst move made was keeping Rex this year if they knew they weren't going to pad the roster with FAs. Made zero sense.

[slats]

I did. I wanted Bortles or Bridgewater in the first as a way to hedge the bet. Now, we hope he has an answer at QB. Hope is all we need.

I'd have a little glimmer of hope right now if we had a Mettenberger to maybe turn to after the bye. Right now, all I can hope is they find the right guy to throw into the fire next year.

[Jetsfan80]

I don't see what there is here to disagree with. The Jets have a plan and it's a plan that makes sense, but they've executed it horrendously. You absolutely cannot build a team in the NFL when you draft this poorly. It's really that simple.

 

He rightly defended Idzik's work in free agency there, but he only spent like a paragraph on the draft, brushing away a lot of those concerns.  For a guy who is paid to write a lot of words I was hoping for a draft pick by draft pick breakdown to make me feel better.

[AFJF]

The worst move made was keeping Rex this year if they knew they weren't going to pad the roster with FAs. Made zero sense.

 

Exactly...every move or non-move goes against the thinking of any possible plan.

 

- If you're going to tank the season, do it with the coach you bring in so he has a year to see his players in action up close.  Having Ryan coach this team makes no sense if you don't want to get him players.

- If you're pinching pennies, don't sign Chris Johnson and Vick.  Should've been Ivory/Powell/Rookie....Geno/vet min journeyman/Simms

- If you're trying to win  now with Rex, get him some players

- If you're building through the draft, give guys time to pan out (Saunders/George) or don't reach for projects.

- If you're mantra is competition, go ahead and have one at the most important position and don't hand it over to a guy who is arguably the worst QB in the NFL.

- If you're trying to get younger, let Calvin Pace walk, don't sign CJ and use some of the 13 picks to fill those roles.

[T0mShane]

I'd have a little glimmer of hope right now if we had a Mettenberger to maybe turn to after the bye. Right now, all I can hope is they find the right guy to throw into the fire next year.

Word. We have to wait and see the HC and QB moves before we lose our minds, though.

[T0mShane]

Exactly...every move or non-move goes against the thinking of any possible plan.

- If you're going to tank the season, do it with the coach you bring in so he has a year to see his players in action up close. Having Ryan coach this team makes no sense if you don't want to get him players.

- If you're pinching pennies, don't sign Chris Johnson and Vick. Should've been Ivory/Powell/Rookie....Geno/vet min journeyman/Simms

- If you're trying to win now with Rex, get him some players

- If you're building through the draft, give guys time to pan out (Saunders/George) or don't reach for projects.

- If you're mantra is competition, go ahead and have one at the most important position and don't hand it over to a guy who is arguably the worst QB in the NFL.

- If you're trying to get younger, let Calvin Pace walk, don't sign CJ and use some of the 13 picks to fill those roles.

Every move is a half-measure, which speaks to a dysfunctional power relationship up top. I think there has to be a middle man between Woody and the GM that can arbitrate. I really think Woody is major problem.

[detjetsfan69]

No. Blaming him for not taking a QB before Boyd. You wanted him to take a QB in the first round. Would they still've taken Boyd in the sixth? Maybe, maybe not. I don't care. But they had opportunities to grab some big names at the position in the draft as late as their 5th rounder.

I'd much rather have Johnny Football than Slow Calvin Pryor.

[detjetsfan69]

Exactly...every move or non-move goes against the thinking of any possible plan.

 

The worst move was passing on several very good WRs and CB's in free agency and signing scrubs like Jacoby Ford and D'Mitri Patterson.  Also our draft was horrific.  Outside of Amaro this looks like the worst draft since 2010 with Kyle Wilson and Ducasse - this might be worse.

[Obrien2Toon]

Did I read that right? Any amount of money you are under the cap one year, you get a surplus of that amount the following year. Is that right?

So if we were 100 mil under the cap this year, we could go 100 mil over next year.

[Jetlife33]

It all makes a ton of sense, it's just hard to push that on a New York team that's 1-4 and being embarrassed. I said from the begining I like what Idziks doing, it seems all the good teams do it. He's just not executing it properly. Although if Milliner Richardson Pryor and Amaro all develop to their capabilities then he might be on to something on the early picks in the draft. But past round 2 of the draft Idzik has failed, unfortunately.

[detjetsfan69]

Did I read that right? Any amount of money you are under the cap one year, you get a surplus of that amount the following year. Is that right?

So if we were 100 mil under the cap this year, we could go 100 mil over next year.

We're going to have $75 million in cap space next year which Idzik will use to sign Eric Smith, Sidney Rice and Matt Schaub and most Jets fans will applaud the moves as prudent and not going after thug-turds and then the season will happen and we'll go 3-13 the 2nd year in a row.

[AFJF]

Every move is a half-measure, which speaks to a dysfunctional power relationship up top. I think there has to be a middle man between Woody and the GM that can arbitrate. I really think Woody is major problem.

 

I see your point, but I disagree on Woody.  I don't get the impression for one second that he fancies himself as a talent evaluator.  Sure, he says nice things about his players, but that's all hyperbole.  I think he hires who he wants and gives them 100% control.  I'm sure he might ask why they should sign a particular player, but I seriously doubt he's the one saying "lets not sign Verneer, he just doesn't fit the man-to-man defense Rex favors".  Now if you want to blame him for making a bad hire, that would be tough to argue at the moment.