Sh*t, There Might Actually Be Logic Behind Jets' Plan at QB

[Jack Straw]

https://deadspin.com/sh*t-there-might-be-logic-behind-the-jets-plan-at-quar-1823763199

The Jets wanted to land Kirk Cousins, and they reportedly offered even more than the Vikings did to get him. After that fell through, they immediately turned to Plan B, which involved re-signing Josh McCown and adding Teddy Bridgewater. At first glance, it looked like the Jets spent $15 million for some half-assed patchwork. But I swear there’s a logic to this—and it goes deeper than simply maintaining the Jets’ longstanding dynasty of quarterback mentorship. The real work still has to be done, though.

McCown is 39 and meh. It took a career year from him in 2017 for the Jets to win five games before their offense reverted into the slapstick act they were widely forecast to become. The Jets got credit for exceeding expectations last season, but this was always the lowest of low bars to clear; if anything, they benefited from the might-go-winless narrative, since anything better could be spun as some kind of progress, no matter how ephemeral it actually was. They changedthe culture, or so we were told, even as Muhammad Wilkerson, their highest-paid player, wound up marking time until he got benched and then released. McCown keeps earning praise for his intangibles and for being some kind of locker-room soothsayer, even though his presence has never done a thing for the development of a young quarterback (and certainly didn’t do jack sh*t for Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg).

The Jets decided to stick with head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Mike Maccagnan, whose three years together haven’t produced much in the way of tangible progress. It’s hard not to view the contract extensions both received in December as a desire for continuity for the sake of continuity. It’s as if the Jets were determined to show the world they’re not the Browns by simply refusing to copy the Browns’ blueprint of constantly cleaning house. Plus, Bowles often coaches scared, and Maccagnan entered this offseason with a roster full of as many holes as the one he inherited from John Idzik—even after two drafts with the No. 6 pick, the same spot the Jets find themselves in again this spring. Maccagnan’s three drafts haven’t produced much, and with Petty and Hackenberg, he has even whiffed twice at attempts to find a QB.

So what’s the point of bringing McCown back for a reported $10 million, while also adding Bridgewater—who will have gone nearly three years without playing a meaningful snap*—for an additional $5 million? Consider the QB market, and what the Seahawks and Eagles—two franchises that have both won Super Bowls in the eight years since the Jets last made the playoffs—did as part of their respective plans.

The $15 million the Jets are forking over for McCown and Bridgewater might seem like a lot. But view that price in context: It’s the same average per year the Bears gave Mike Glennon last year, and it’s right at the bottom of the market for starting quarterbacks. The Jets got two QBs for that price, with no financial commitments whatsoever beyond 2018. For a team that entered free agency with a league-high $90 million-plus in cap room, it’s not a significant investment. The key to understanding what the Jets are doing is to realize they aren’t done investing in quarterbacks. This is where it’s instructive to look at what the Seahawks did in 2012 and the Eagles did in 2016.

In March 2012, the Seahawks signed Matt Flynn to a deal that maxed out at three years, $26 million, with $10 million guaranteed. They also still had Tarvaris Jackson, who had started 15 games for them the previous season. Yet they nonetheless went ahead that spring and drafted Russell Wilson in the third round. Wilson won the job in training camp, and Jackson was traded that August for a pick Seattle later flipped to the Vikings as part of a trade package for wideout Percy Harvin. At the end of Wilson’s second season, Seattle won the Super Bowl.

Then there were the Eagles. In March 2016, they signed Sam Bradford to a lucrative extension with $22 million in guarantees. They also signed Chase Daniel to a multi-year contract. Then, they maneuvered up to draft Carson Wentz, who wound up winning the job in camp. When Bridgewater got hurt just before the start of the season, the Eagles traded Bradford to the Vikings. Last March, the Eagles dumped Daniel and signed Nick Foles. You know the rest of that story. The Eagles paid a steep price in draft capital to jump from No. 8 to No. 2 to pick Wentz. The Jets don’t have to move up quite as far, and they have eight draft picks to work with this year, including two in the second round, plus all seven of 2019's selections. That’s more than enough ammo to maneuver up the board, should they want to do it badly enough.

Clearly, there are ways to get a rookie QB enough reps in training camp even with a pair of veterans around him. Hell, the Jets already did this last year, when McCown basically stepped aside after the first preseason game to allow Petty and Hackenberg the chance to spend the rest of the summer stepping on rakes.

By signing McCown and Bridgewater, the Jets have purchased some veteran quarterback depth. They can use that depth as insurance, a trade chip, or both. The Jets have also already spent some of their cap surplus at cornerback, running back, center, and inside linebacker, without splurging on older players, as they did during Maccagnan’s first offseason. What they still have to do is draft a quarterback this spring, be it by holding pat at No. 6 or by trading up or down. The only problem with this plan is that’s the part they damn well better get right.

[MDL_JET]

2 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

The only problem with this plan is that’s the part they damn well better get right.

And that's the most terrifying part of all.

[JoJoTownsell1]

Macc has two paths to save his job:

1- Either they draft a franchise QB that shows flashes in camp (Mahommes rode the bench all year and Watson only got a start because Savage was atrocious) or

2- Bridgewater returns to "form" (which I never thought was that great to begin with) and we win 10 games and make the playoffs. 

If we go 7-9 with Mccown while Bridgewater looks like a cripple and the QB we draft looks like garbage in camp then Macc/Bowles is done. 

 

[FidelioJet]

It's only #1 - If he doesn't get a 1st round QB he's out of a job.  Worst case they get Jackson and we'll have some excitement because he'll be very good - until he gets hurt.  

[dbatesman]

Deadspin is good now

[jetstream23]

hmmm...seems pretty easy.  Just draft a guy like Russell Wilson in Round 3. 

[joewilly12]

There is no logic when it comes to the QB position and drafting here. 

[Warfish]

You spin me right round baby right round like a record baby round and round and right round.....

[Jack Straw]

1 minute ago, dbatesman said:

Deadspin is good now

It pained me to post anything from their cess pool of a site, but this article actually made some sense and so I ignored my personal bias of hatred against them.

[Beerfish]

The whole "find out about Bridgewater' part is nonsense if mccown is the starter. 

[jetstream23]

11 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

It's only #1 - If he doesn't get a 1st round QB he's out of a job.  Worst case they get Jackson and we'll have some excitement because he'll be very good - until he gets hurt.  

Agreed.  If Macc wants to save face he has to get a QB in Round 1.  And, if they really want to juice the fanbase and get ownership excited about filling the stadium they would sign Honey Badger and draft Mayfield.  I'm not saying that guarantees success on the field or that Baker is the answer but it would certainly infuse life into a team that has had zero identity for 3 years.

[FidelioJet]

1 minute ago, jetstream23 said:

Agreed.  If Macc wants to save face he has to get a QB in Round 1.  And, if they really want to juice the fanbase and get ownership excited about filling the stadium they would sign Honey Badger and draft Mayfield.  I'm not saying that's guarantees success on the field or that Baker is the answer but it would certainly infuse life into a team that has had zero identity for 3 years.

Yes...if they did those two things - Honey Bager and Mayfield - You're probably going to see a fan more excited since Rex's first two years = there will be tons of possitive energy...

And they'll actually be reason for the excitement.

[Augustiniak]

4 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Agreed.  If Macc wants to save face he has to get a QB in Round 1.  And, if they really want to juice the fanbase and get ownership excited about filling the stadium they would sign Honey Badger and draft Mayfield.  I'm not saying that's guarantees success on the field or that Baker is the answer but it would certainly infuse life into a team that has had zero identity for 3 years.

until mayfield is inactive opening day and the quest to get the hc fired begins. 

[jetstream23]

The Holy Grail of good luck for the Jets would be ending up with an Eagles type situation where not one, but TWO QBs, turn out to be capable starters or even more.  Watching Wentz go down and then Foles win the Super Bowl is painful to a team that hasn't been able to find one decent starting QB in years.  But imagine a scenario where the Jets draft one of the Top 4 (say a Rosen or Mayfield) and he turns out to be a franchise type guy.  Maybe not an elite QB but a Top 10ish guy like Russell Wilson.  And, what if Bridgewater stays healthy and returns to form?  I don't know if there's any control over Teddy B. beyond 2018 but the franchise tag exists for a reason.  All I'm saying is that instead of thinking of all the things that could go wrong how about we consider the slight possibility of things going right.

[JustInFudge]

You guys realize, this is no different than any other year right?

2015 - young Geno, old Fitz - draft Petty

2016 - young Geno/Petty, old Fitz - draft Hack

2017 - young Petty/Hack, old McCown - punt on QB the year they had a shot a real QB's

2018 - young Teddy, Old McCown - draft a 2nd day QB

It's the same ******* plan repeated over and over again and people think it's actually going to go different this year? 

[bigalbarracuda]

7 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Macc has two paths to save his job:

1- Either they draft a franchise QB that shows flashes in camp (Mahommes rode the bench all year and Watson only got a start because Savage was atrocious) or

2- Bridgewater returns to "form" (which I never thought was that great to begin with) and we win 10 games and make the playoffs. 

If we go 7-9 with Mccown while Bridgewater looks like a cripple and the QB we draft looks like garbage in camp then Macc/Bowles is done. 

 

Yeh that's pretty much it. For all the lamenting about McCown and Bridgewater they need to hit on a QB in the draft.  

The only thing that the signing shows is that Hack/Petty are effectively gone as Hack is now the only QB on the roster under contract for 2019. 

[MDL_JET]

1 minute ago, JiF said:

You guys realize, this is no different than any other year right?

2015 - young Geno, old Fitz - draft Petty

2016 - young Geno/Petty, old Fitz - draft Hack

2017 - young Petty/Hack, old McCown - punt on QB the year they had a shot a real QB's

2018 - young Teddy, Old McCown - draft a 2nd day QB

It's the same ******* plan repeated over and over again and people think it's actually going to go different this year? 

Listen. I might as well get excited at the small possibility of it happening and then be let down and be miserable. Then to be miserable from the start. 

[JustInFudge]

Just now, MDL_JET said:

Listen. I might as well get excited at the small possibility of it happening and then be let down and be miserable. Then to be miserable from the start. 

I'm more of a prepare for the worst kind of guy but I'm just a realist when it comes to the Jets. 

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, JiF said:

You guys realize, this is no different than any other year right?

2015 - young Geno, old Fitz - draft Petty

2016 - young Geno/Petty, old Fitz - draft Hack

2017 - young Petty/Hack, old McCown - punt on QB the year they had a shot a real QB's

2018 - young Teddy, Old McCown - draft a 2nd day QB

It's the same ******* plan repeated over and over again and people think it's actually going to go different this year? 

it's different when you draft a first round qb, especially in the top 5.  it's also different b/c the gm and hc could well be fired if they don't show they can 1) figure out how to draft a qb in the first round, 2) make the head coach actually play the qb before december, and 3) surround him with enough talent and coaching so that he doesn't look awful.  these 3 things need to happen or else they are both gone.

[Bleedin Green]

I would get the general logic if they approached this mindset with either McCown or Bridgewater.  By having the both of them, there are only two options of what can happen from here.  Either they pass on QB at the top of the draft, which makes this decision unforgivable.  Or, they do draft a QB, who will be buried behind two veterans the Jets are already infatuated with, including the one with the greatest financial commitment being the old man career backup, ultimately guaranteeing his presence will be at the expense of at least one, if not both, of the substantially younger and higher upside players.

The Seahawks comparison isn't really a valid one, considering they were already done with Jackson, and put themselves in position with 2 potential long-term solutions.  As of now, the Jets have none (even Bridgewater is only on a one-year deal).

The Eagles situation is the only one that could be somewhat comparable, but their team was in a very different situation, and were ultimately holding onto capital that could have some return on it.  The Eagles got a first-rounder back for Bradford when all was said and done.  The Jets would be lucky to get a throwaway late rounder for any of their current guys.

[sciond]

2 issues

1) Can Macc show that he evaluate a good QB prospect?

2) can the Jets staff coach a good QB prospect up?

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, Bleedin Green said:

I would get the general logic if they approached this mindset with either McCown or Bridgewater.  By having the both of them, there are only two options of what can happen from here.  Either they pass on QB at the top of the draft, which makes this decision unforgivable.  Or, they do draft a QB, who will be buried behind two veterans the Jets are already infatuated with, including the one with the greatest financial commitment being the old man career backup, ultimately guaranteeing his presence will be at the expense of at least one, if not both, of the substantially younger and higher upside players.

The Seahawks comparison isn't really a valid one, considering they were already done with Jackson, and put themselves in position with 2 potential long-term solutions.  As of now, the Jets have none (even Bridgewater is only on a one-year deal).

The Eagles situation is the only one that could be somewhat comparable, but their team was in a very different situation, and were ultimately holding onto capital that could have some return on it.  The Eagles got a first-rounder back for Bradford when all was said and done.  The Jets would be lucky to get a throwaway late rounder for any of their current guys.

the only situation that jets management is comparing this to is what they had last year.  after mccown got hurt they had no qb to put in the game who could execute a pass play.  it was embarrassing for the team that they had no qbs.  the offense was beyond pathetic after mccown got hurt.  you can't have 2 of 3 qbs who really should not be on nfl rosters.  

in 2018 it seems the plan is to go into training camp with 3 qbs, a rookie and the two guys they signed.  they can always trade bridgewater or make him inactive if the rookie shows he can play.  the team has no money committed to either qb beyond this season.  

one key point to remember is, even if mccagnan intends to draft a qb in the first round and even trade up, there are no guarantees he can do it.  if teams like buffalo are willing and able to give so many picks, mccagnan may not want to part with next year's #1 to do this.  maybe he opts to trade back if the qbs go 1-4 and the prices were outrageous, and he finds someone who really wants chubb or minkah.  maybe he trades back and takes lamar.  but since they're not picking at #2, i think that's a big reason they brought in bridgewater - they are not yet in control of their qb destiny.

[bigalbarracuda]

3 minutes ago, JiF said:

You guys realize, this is no different than any other year right?

2015 - young Geno, old Fitz - draft Petty

2016 - young Geno/Petty, old Fitz - draft Hack

2017 - young Petty/Hack, old McCown - punt on QB 

2018 - young Teddy, Old McCown - draft a 2nd day QB

It's the same ******* plan repeated over and over again and people think it's actually going to go different this year? 

You're not wrong but there's context here that's missing. These teams did not have a young QB with serious expectations/promise... both Petty and Hack were universally considered projects and Geno (after showing some flashes) was essentially kept around because of his contract.  

I think he's doubling down on Veteran depth and will do whatever he can to move up for the QB they want... we just have to hope it's the right guy. 

[T0mShane]

35 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

Clearly, there are ways to get a rookie QB enough reps in training camp even with a pair of veterans around him. Hell, the Jets already did this last year, when McCown basically stepped aside after the first preseason game to allow Petty and Hackenberg the chance to spend the rest of the summer stepping on rakes.

Yes, the Jets should absolutely repeat the Hackenberg Development Plan™️ but with an exponentially more expensive prospect. That will be, you know, the way to go.

[T0mShane]

26 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Deadspin is good now

Without looking, I thought it was Barnwell.

[Flushing Roots]

QB insurance was not an unwise move.

So far I give Mac a B+.

He lands a franchise quarterback in the draft, I give him an A+.

[Jack Straw]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

Yes, the Jets should absolutely repeat the Hackenberg Development Plan™️ but with an exponentially more expensive prospect. That will be, you know, the way to go.

I'm personally of the belief that the 2018 NYJ season will play out almost identically to the 2016 Rams' season. We already have the same head coach (Todd Bowles = Jeff Fisher), the same meh veteran at QB (Josh McCown = 2016 Case Keenum); the only thing we need to do to mirror their season is draft our #1 QB (the NYJ version of Jared Goff) and then let Todd Bowles be Todd Bowles where he'll refuse to play the rookie until very late in the season after everything is already done and lost.

The rookie will flop behind Bowles' ultra-conservative game plans that ask him to complete 12 passes to get into the endzone, and Bowles will be fired. 

We can only hope that the rookie QB, whoever he is, isn't damaged so badly that he'll be able to rebound ala Jared Goff in year two under a new head coach.

[T0mShane]

3 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

I'm personally of the belief that the 2018 NYJ season will play out almost identically to the 2016 Rams' season. We already have the same head coach (Todd Bowles = Jeff Fisher), the same meh veteran at QB (Josh McCown = 2016 Case Keenum); the only thing we need to do to mirror their season is draft our #1 QB (the NYJ version of Jared Goff) and then let Todd Bowles be Todd Bowles where he'll refuse to play the rookie until very late in the season after everything is already done and lost.

The rookie will flop behind Bowles' ultra-conservative game plans that ask him to complete 12 passes to get into the endzone, and Bowles will be fired. 

We can only hope that the rookie QB, whoever he is, isn't damaged so badly that he'll be able to rebound ala Jared Goff in year two under a new head coach.

Only problem: if and when the Jets fire Bowles, they’re just going to go out and hire someone exactly like Bowles again. This has become the worst job in football.

[Augustiniak]

4 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

I'm personally of the belief that the 2018 NYJ season will play out almost identically to the 2016 Rams' season. We already have the same head coach (Todd Bowles = Jeff Fisher), the same meh veteran at QB (Josh McCown = 2016 Case Keenum); the only thing we need to do to mirror their season is draft our #1 QB (the NYJ version of Jared Goff) and then let Todd Bowles be Todd Bowles where he'll refuse to play the rookie until very late in the season after everything is already done and lost.

The rookie will flop behind Bowles' ultra-conservative game plans that ask him to complete 12 passes to get into the endzone, and Bowles will be fired. 

We can only hope that the rookie QB, whoever he is, isn't damaged so badly that he'll be able to rebound ala Jared Goff in year two under a new head coach.

that's a very interesting parallel, especially since the jets ownership is allegedly telling them to draft a qb.

it's easy to see how a guy like mayfield would rub bowles the wrong way and then he'd be inactive.  that would go over well with the local media.

[dbatesman]

10 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Without looking, I thought it was Barnwell.

Ha! This is a super-Barnwellian piece, no doubt.

[NoBowles]

The idea that Mac/Bowles have a plan for the QB position is funny. They wish they could figure out a way to play without a QB.

[Jack Straw]

18 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

that's a very interesting parallel, especially since the jets ownership is allegedly telling them to draft a qb.

it's easy to see how a guy like mayfield would rub bowles the wrong way and then he'd be inactive.  that would go over well with the local media.

Oh my god, Mayfield would literally break Todd Bowles. Remember when Bryce Petty was playing against the 49ers two years ago, in the game we won in overtime? Petty was under pressure and started scrambling to his left to avoid the pass rush and threw a 25 yard pass down the field, against his body, and completed the pass to Robby Anderson.

Todd Bowles, in his postgame press conference, nearly had a seizure discussing the play and basically said Petty was stupid (regardless of the fact that the play basically sealed the victory for the Jets). 

Todd Bowles hates Bryce Petty, and Petty is basically a teachers' pet of a QB. A yes sir, no sir, type of dude. Baker Mayfield is the exact opposite. He's the type who will bang your girlfriend and ask if you want to smell his nuts afterwards - exactly what NY needs right now.

[Long Island Leprechaun]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

The whole "find out about Bridgewater' part is nonsense if mccown is the starter. 

The Simon and Garfunkel strategm:

"Like a Bridge over troubled Water,

I will play McGown..."

[rangerous]

not for nothing but hack and even petty are still in the mix.  imo it's doubtful petty will be on the roster much longer.  not sure about hack.  we may see him getting some good reps at the ota's or even training camp.

[joewilly12]

2 minutes ago, rangerous said:

not for nothing but hack and even petty are still in the mix.  imo it's doubtful petty will be on the roster much longer.  not sure about hack.  we may see him getting some good reps at the ota's or even training camp.

Wait so now we have 4 QB's on our roster that wouldn't be in the NFL if not for the NY Jets.