Rosen Fans

[Skeptable]

Here is a Link to an Article in another forum about the negatives of Rosen....

https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/9370-why-josh-rosen-isn’t-the-quarterback-you-think-he-is/

Da_Ducktator

• 
• Members
•  140
• 358 posts

•  

Posted 19 hours ago (edited)

* First of all, I want to start with the disclaimer that I will have some numbers featured that were put together by Benjamin Solak in his Contextualized Quarterbacking. Those numbers are actually slightly skewed positively towards Josh Rosen, because Benjamin charted every game of Rosen’s this year EXCEPT his game against Arizona, arguably his worst game of the year. So when I point out problem areas with these numbers that Rosen has struggled in, remember that they are actually even lower than represented. *

Josh Rosen has been built and hyped up in this convoluted quarterback draft class as the “safe” option. The intelligent quarterback who has some off-field concerns and a good enough arm to make all the throws.

However, I’m here to go over why a lot of this is false. Why Rosen is not the safe prospect you think he is based on his on-field play and problematic parts of his game that seem to be continually brushed on the rug.

Tight Window Throws and Limited Deep Throws

As you work your way through Rosen’s market share of pass attempts, they continue to dwindle (in regards to rank in this class, not strictly the actual number) until you get to his attempts 20+ yards down the field, in which his market share was at 12.9%, dead last in the class (at least among the 13 QB’s Solak charted).

I see a lot of hesitation in Rosen’s decision to throw the ball downfield, almost as if he lacks the faith in his arm to do so, and I have seen that hesitation cost him numerous times.

Furthermore, his accuracy on tight window throws is third-to-last in the class. I think arm strength is an issue of bigger concern then discussed with Rosen.

 

On the Move and Against Pressure

The football field is wildly chaotic and more so in the NFL. Quarterbacks, barring spectacular offensive line play, there isn’t a lot of time to hang back in the pocket and make a throw. The only quarterbacks last season to average more than three seconds a pass attempt all had those numbers aided by their own mobility (Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Tyrod Taylor, Brett Hundley).

According to Solak, Rosen ranks second-to-last in accuracy outside the pocket, third-to-last in placement outside the pocket, and dead-last (by a wide margin) in accuracy AND placement from a “move platform.” NFL.com has Rosen listed as completing just 42.4 percent of his passes when asked to move.

3^rd Down Numbers

3^rd down efficiency has long been an area I stress in quarterback evaluations. 3^rd down is ultimately where a quarterback needs to be great; it’s do or die for the drive and the high majority of 3^rd downs are pass attempts. It’s important to evaluate on film, but the raw numbers regarding it have proven to be incredibly predictive for success at the NFL level, at least when you grade poorly in the area.

Rosen, along with Josh Allen, are about to become the 15th and 16th quarterback prospects of the last 10 drafts to be taken in the first four rounds and failed to convert at least 37 percent of their 3^rd down pass attempts into 1^st downs during their final collegiate season. This grouping is has an incredibly meager track record, with just a single one of them making the playoffs to date, that being Derek Carr, who made just one playoff appearance and did not earn a win, leaving seven percent of this list as successful starting quarterbacks (if Rosen and Allen fail, that number drops to 6.25 percent). You will see that the rest of the grouping is largely underwhelming and this problem area could have been used to identify colossal busts such as Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker and Christian Hackenberg.

Josh Rosen (2018)	33.3%
Josh Allen (2018)	36.14%
Davis Webb (2017)	35.14%
C.J. Beathard (2017)	23.6%
Joshua Dobbs (2017)	31.31%
Christian Hackenberg (2016)	27.45%
Cody Kessler (2016)	36.11%
Cardele Jones (2016)	36.17%
Sean Mannion (2015)	29.66%
Bryce Petty (2015)*	35.23%
Derek Carr (2014)	32.84%
Matt Barkley (2013)	35.29%
Jake Locker (2011)	30%
Blaine Gabbert (2011)	33.91%
Jimmy Clausen (2010)	36.9%
Josh Freeman (2009)	36.08%

 

* - Fun note on Bryce Petty; He didn’t convert a single 3^rd and 10+ throw into a 1^st down his senior season despite 22 attempts to do so. Still fascinates me that a guy who had a 3.27 YPA on 3^rd and 10+ ever received the hype he did, but I digress…

While Derek Carr was in the same range as Rosen, it’s particularly disheartening that only six names on that list had a lower 3^rd down conversion rate than Rosen, and only one of them was a 1^st rounder (Locker).

“Progression Throws”

A lot of Rosen’s hype comes from him being touted as pro-ready. People see the head movement in the pocket and automatically equate this to him going through his reads, looking off safeties/linebackers, and making the proper decisions with the football.

I believe this is generally a myth though. I think a lot of this is pre-programmed into the offense, into each play that Rosen calls. Why? Because I see a number of throws on tape where he looks one way off the snap and turns and fires into defenders. There was clearly no read on the play that was made or if there was, he displayed terrible decision-making in doing so. The INT below against Arizona is a clear example of that.

Winning

I know Jim Mora isn’t a great coach and that the surrounding talent was nothing amazing for Rosen each year, specifically because the defense didn’t help the offenses case much and the offensive line play had its issues.

The problems that the Bruins suffered the last few years highlight the culmination of Rosen’s weaknesses; he was not able to elevate his team to new heights.

The Bruins got off to a great start with Rosen as a freshman, rattling off four straight wins to open the signal-caller’s career. After that though, UCLA went 13-13 in games Rosen started, going 0-3 the last two years against teams who were ranked at the time they played, and 0-6 against teams who finished ranked in the final AP poll.

To further expound on that, the Bruins rarely played good pass defenses. The only defense that UCLA played this past season that ranked in the top 80 in pass defense was Washington, a game in which he had a bad performance (57.1%, 93 Yards, 4.4 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT, -19 rushing yards). That means all of Rosen’s 10 other games came against teams in the bottom 40 percent of college football, and three of those games came against teams in the bottom 10 in the nation, which UCLA stumbled to a 1-2 record against (Memphis, Arizona, Arizona State).

Below is an INT he threw on 3rd and 10 against Memphis. Failed to recognize the blitz coming and threw an errant pass while only down by three and within field goal range. Need to take the sack.

Conclusion

I was a believer in Rosen before really diving deep. I had already started to drop him and took another look and just simply cannot see what most see. He reminds me a lot of the likes of Brian Brohm and Jimmy Clausen. These were two guys who were built up on having clean releases and were perceived to be good decision-makers with quality arm strength. But a deep study into their play shows a lack of functional arm strength to make all the throws, an overrated ability to read defenses and make good decisions, and (probably the worse in Rosen’s case among all three) huge struggles to throw when forced off the launch point. I still think a lot of people are enamored by the five-star ranking out of high school and the comeback against a (bad) Texas A&M defense that, after really getting the best of him for a six halves (dating back to the year before) with constant pressure and mixing up their blitzes, the Aggies sat back and failed to pressure Rosen while giving him some lay-up throws.

I honestly have no concern over the “off-field” problems tagged to Rosen. They seem to be overblown. However, I do think those perceived issues have covered up holes in his on-field game that aren’t being looked at enough.

 

Edited 19 hours ago by Da_Ducktator

[Skeptable]

Da_Ducktator

• 
• Members
•  140
• 358 posts

•  

Posted 19 hours ago

  19 hours ago, Da_Ducktator said:

Furthermore, his accuracy on tight window throws is third-to-last in the class. I think arm strength is an issue of bigger concern then discussed with Rosen.

Here is a few plays I snipped that show issues on tight window throws as well as downfield accuracy.

 

 

 

[HawkeyeJet]

Can we all just admit they ALL have warts and none are quite the slam dunk prospects people thought they were in August?  

If someone provides proof that God was real and personally said Josh Allen was QB1 in this class, I'd still want them to take Mayfield.  No article or film session is changing anyone's mind on whatever prospect they are on board with 9 days from the draft.

[pointman]

No one takes someone that calls themselves "Da Ducktator" seriously. Questioning Rosen's arm strength is cute. He clearly didn't watch him throw bombs at the combine that rivaled Allen's arm.

[T0mShane]

Remember when they did this same sh*t with Andrew Luck and before that all those draft savants saying ACTUALLY Ryan Leaf should be the first overall pick because look at this gif?

[kdels62]

1 minute ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Can we all just admit they ALL have warts and none are quite the slam dunk prospects people thought they were in August?  

If someone provides proof that God was real and personally said Josh Allen was QB1 in this class, I'd still want them to take Mayfield.  No article or film session is changing anyone's mind on whatever prospect they are on board with.

My biggest concern with Rosen, my favorite qb in the draft, is his arm strength, no one else seems to mention it though. 

My second, but it’s close, choice is Mayfield and the only concern with him is if he can fit a pro scheme into his noggin. 

Three is Darnold, can he clean up his mechanics enough and not just rely on his right arm and athleticism. 

I think Allen is trash and a 3rd rounded at best. 

Each prospect is flawed but those top 3 have enough positives to counter their negatives. Weirdly enough, I think Rosen’s gonna be either great or terrible even though everyone treats him like a sure thing. 

[Sarge4Tide]

Here is a video of a cute husky puppy falling down some stairs 

 

[bealeb319]

Can we see the scouting reports on Brady next?

Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app

[C Mart]

For all this Rosen doesn’t have an arm. Well it’s definitely stronger than Pennington’s but not as strong as Jamarcus Russell’s. 

[JustInFudge]

8 minutes ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Here is a video of a cute husky puppy falling down some stairs 

 

Poor little guy could have hurt himself taking a fall like that and someone is just sitting their filming it?

CALL PETA!!!!!!!!!!

[C Mart]

Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks)

4/17/18, 1:05 PM

The Josh Rosen 360 Podcast is now available 
nfl.com/podcasts?id=gi… pic.twitter.com/qTgH0vPBgE

 

Damon Kecman (@DownWithDamon)

4/17/18, 1:42 PM

They got Rosen’s HS coach, Jim Mora & Trent Dilfer to all talk in-depth about Josh Rosen. This is a great listen. twitter.com/movethesticks/…

 

 

[Philc1]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Remember when they did this same sh*t with Andrew Luck and before that all those draft savants saying ACTUALLY Ryan Leaf should be the first overall pick because look at this gif?

I remember 20 years ago fanboys screaming about how Leaf was better than Manning.  Manning could never win the big games at Tennessee, weak arm comes from rich family not hungry blah blah blah

[Philc1]

54 minutes ago, C Mart said:

For all this Rosen doesn’t have an arm. Well it’s definitely stronger than Pennington’s but not as strong as Jamarcus Russell’s. 

About same arm strength as Peyton who didn’t have a cannon either.  He’s not in the Chad Pennington or Ryan Fitzpatrick category of can’t throw past 10 yards that is absolutely ridiculous and false

[Grandy]

1 hour ago, kdels62 said:

My biggest concern with Rosen, my favorite qb in the draft, is his arm strength, no one else seems to mention it though. 

My second, but it’s close, choice is Mayfield and the only concern with him is if he can fit a pro scheme into his noggin. 

Three is Darnold, can he clean up his mechanics enough and not just rely on his right arm and athleticism. 

I think Allen is trash and a 3rd rounded at best. 

Each prospect is flawed but those top 3 have enough positives to counter their negatives. Weirdly enough, I think Rosen’s gonna be either great or terrible even though everyone treats him like a sure thing. 

Launched 65 yard bombs at pro day, 3rd highest velocity in the combine.

[Philc1]

2 minutes ago, Grandy said:

Launched 65 yard bombs at pro day, 3rd highest velocity in the combine.

B-but he’s Chad Pennington!

[FidelioJet]

23 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

About same arm strength as Peyton who didn’t have a cannon either.  He’s not in the Chad Pennington or Ryan Fitzpatrick category of can’t throw past 10 yards that is absolutely ridiculous and false

Sure, but I think the point many are making is he will be in the bottom half, likely bottom third of arm strength of starting QB's in the NFL.  

It's certainly strong enough but not exceptional at all.

Payton's arm was definiately stronger.

[Stark]

BELIEVE NOTHING YOU READ FROM PRO DAYS TO THE DRAFT IT IS ALL BULL SH!T AND USUALLY JUST FOR READS OR TO PUSH A PROSPECT EITHER UP OR DOWN

[Philc1]

1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

Sure, but I think the point many are making is he will be in the bottom half, likely bottom third of arm strength of starting QB's in the NFL.  

It's certainly strong enough but not exceptional at all.

Payton's arm was definiately stronger.

I’ll take average nfl arm strength with way above average ability to read defenses, go through progressions, split the safety and learn a playbook 

And I watched Peyton since he was a sophomore at Tennessee he never had a great arm even he would say that

 

[Adoni Beast]

Rosen’s arm is plenty strong enough. It’s not Favre’s but neither is Brady, Manning, Montana and most qb’s.

His arm strength is above average. Thats plenty.

[HessStation]

The second gif...um he actually is throwing the ball out of bounds which this dude calls a missed throw.

[SouthernJet]

2 hours ago, Skeptable said:

Here is a Link to an Article in another forum about the negatives of Rosen....

https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/9370-why-josh-rosen-isn’t-the-quarterback-you-think-he-is/

Da_Ducktator

• 
• Members
•  140
• 358 posts

•  

Posted 19 hours ago (edited)

* First of all, I want to start with the disclaimer that I will have some numbers featured that were put together by Benjamin Solak in his Contextualized Quarterbacking. Those numbers are actually slightly skewed positively towards Josh Rosen, because Benjamin charted every game of Rosen’s this year EXCEPT his game against Arizona, arguably his worst game of the year. So when I point out problem areas with these numbers that Rosen has struggled in, remember that they are actually even lower than represented. *

Josh Rosen has been built and hyped up in this convoluted quarterback draft class as the “safe” option. The intelligent quarterback who has some off-field concerns and a good enough arm to make all the throws.

However, I’m here to go over why a lot of this is false. Why Rosen is not the safe prospect you think he is based on his on-field play and problematic parts of his game that seem to be continually brushed on the rug.

Tight Window Throws and Limited Deep Throws

As you work your way through Rosen’s market share of pass attempts, they continue to dwindle (in regards to rank in this class, not strictly the actual number) until you get to his attempts 20+ yards down the field, in which his market share was at 12.9%, dead last in the class (at least among the 13 QB’s Solak charted).

I see a lot of hesitation in Rosen’s decision to throw the ball downfield, almost as if he lacks the faith in his arm to do so, and I have seen that hesitation cost him numerous times.

Furthermore, his accuracy on tight window throws is third-to-last in the class. I think arm strength is an issue of bigger concern then discussed with Rosen.

 

On the Move and Against Pressure

The football field is wildly chaotic and more so in the NFL. Quarterbacks, barring spectacular offensive line play, there isn’t a lot of time to hang back in the pocket and make a throw. The only quarterbacks last season to average more than three seconds a pass attempt all had those numbers aided by their own mobility (Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Tyrod Taylor, Brett Hundley).

According to Solak, Rosen ranks second-to-last in accuracy outside the pocket, third-to-last in placement outside the pocket, and dead-last (by a wide margin) in accuracy AND placement from a “move platform.” NFL.com has Rosen listed as completing just 42.4 percent of his passes when asked to move.

3^rd Down Numbers

3^rd down efficiency has long been an area I stress in quarterback evaluations. 3^rd down is ultimately where a quarterback needs to be great; it’s do or die for the drive and the high majority of 3^rd downs are pass attempts. It’s important to evaluate on film, but the raw numbers regarding it have proven to be incredibly predictive for success at the NFL level, at least when you grade poorly in the area.

Rosen, along with Josh Allen, are about to become the 15th and 16th quarterback prospects of the last 10 drafts to be taken in the first four rounds and failed to convert at least 37 percent of their 3^rd down pass attempts into 1^st downs during their final collegiate season. This grouping is has an incredibly meager track record, with just a single one of them making the playoffs to date, that being Derek Carr, who made just one playoff appearance and did not earn a win, leaving seven percent of this list as successful starting quarterbacks (if Rosen and Allen fail, that number drops to 6.25 percent). You will see that the rest of the grouping is largely underwhelming and this problem area could have been used to identify colossal busts such as Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker and Christian Hackenberg.

Josh Rosen (2018)	33.3%
Josh Allen (2018)	36.14%
Davis Webb (2017)	35.14%
C.J. Beathard (2017)	23.6%
Joshua Dobbs (2017)	31.31%
Christian Hackenberg (2016)	27.45%
Cody Kessler (2016)	36.11%
Cardele Jones (2016)	36.17%
Sean Mannion (2015)	29.66%
Bryce Petty (2015)*	35.23%
Derek Carr (2014)	32.84%
Matt Barkley (2013)	35.29%
Jake Locker (2011)	30%
Blaine Gabbert (2011)	33.91%
Jimmy Clausen (2010)	36.9%
Josh Freeman (2009)	36.08%

 

* - Fun note on Bryce Petty; He didn’t convert a single 3^rd and 10+ throw into a 1^st down his senior season despite 22 attempts to do so. Still fascinates me that a guy who had a 3.27 YPA on 3^rd and 10+ ever received the hype he did, but I digress…

While Derek Carr was in the same range as Rosen, it’s particularly disheartening that only six names on that list had a lower 3^rd down conversion rate than Rosen, and only one of them was a 1^st rounder (Locker).

“Progression Throws”

A lot of Rosen’s hype comes from him being touted as pro-ready. People see the head movement in the pocket and automatically equate this to him going through his reads, looking off safeties/linebackers, and making the proper decisions with the football.

I believe this is generally a myth though. I think a lot of this is pre-programmed into the offense, into each play that Rosen calls. Why? Because I see a number of throws on tape where he looks one way off the snap and turns and fires into defenders. There was clearly no read on the play that was made or if there was, he displayed terrible decision-making in doing so. The INT below against Arizona is a clear example of that.

Winning

I know Jim Mora isn’t a great coach and that the surrounding talent was nothing amazing for Rosen each year, specifically because the defense didn’t help the offenses case much and the offensive line play had its issues.

The problems that the Bruins suffered the last few years highlight the culmination of Rosen’s weaknesses; he was not able to elevate his team to new heights.

The Bruins got off to a great start with Rosen as a freshman, rattling off four straight wins to open the signal-caller’s career. After that though, UCLA went 13-13 in games Rosen started, going 0-3 the last two years against teams who were ranked at the time they played, and 0-6 against teams who finished ranked in the final AP poll.

To further expound on that, the Bruins rarely played good pass defenses. The only defense that UCLA played this past season that ranked in the top 80 in pass defense was Washington, a game in which he had a bad performance (57.1%, 93 Yards, 4.4 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT, -19 rushing yards). That means all of Rosen’s 10 other games came against teams in the bottom 40 percent of college football, and three of those games came against teams in the bottom 10 in the nation, which UCLA stumbled to a 1-2 record against (Memphis, Arizona, Arizona State).

Below is an INT he threw on 3rd and 10 against Memphis. Failed to recognize the blitz coming and threw an errant pass while only down by three and within field goal range. Need to take the sack.

Conclusion

I was a believer in Rosen before really diving deep. I had already started to drop him and took another look and just simply cannot see what most see. He reminds me a lot of the likes of Brian Brohm and Jimmy Clausen. These were two guys who were built up on having clean releases and were perceived to be good decision-makers with quality arm strength. But a deep study into their play shows a lack of functional arm strength to make all the throws, an overrated ability to read defenses and make good decisions, and (probably the worse in Rosen’s case among all three) huge struggles to throw when forced off the launch point. I still think a lot of people are enamored by the five-star ranking out of high school and the comeback against a (bad) Texas A&M defense that, after really getting the best of him for a six halves (dating back to the year before) with constant pressure and mixing up their blitzes, the Aggies sat back and failed to pressure Rosen while giving him some lay-up throws.

I honestly have no concern over the “off-field” problems tagged to Rosen. They seem to be overblown. However, I do think those perceived issues have covered up holes in his on-field game that aren’t being looked at enough.

 

ya who knows, here is cossel, known as a pretty good qb scout

long article, so just putting link in

https://sports.yahoo.com/greg-cosells-draft-analysis-josh-rosen-refined-perhaps-best-qb-class-151629623.html

[kdels62]

21 minutes ago, Grandy said:

Launched 65 yard bombs at pro day, 3rd highest velocity in the combine.

So? I watched a bunch of UCLA this year, Rosen can’t just flick the ball like Darnold or Allen. Sometimes he underthrows long balls and he hesitates to throw into some windows that some professionals hit. It’s a minimal concern, he’d be middle of the pack in the NFL in terms of arm strength but of the “top 4” he’s got the weakest arm.

[Grandy]

4 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

So? I watched a bunch of UCLA this year, Rosen can’t just flick the ball like Darnold or Allen. Sometimes he underthrows long balls and he hesitates to throw into some windows that some professionals hit. It’s a minimal concern, he’d be middle of the pack in the NFL in terms of arm strength but of the “top 4” he’s got the weakest arm.

That's a ball placement issue, not an arm issue.

He can most definitely make those throws, he just has to have better decision making.

[HessStation]

You freaking guys and quoting the whole OP and me trying to scroll through this thread on my phone.

[Skeptable]

2 hours ago, HessStation said:

You freaking guys and quoting the whole OP and me trying to scroll through this thread on my phone.

haha agreed

[Pcola]

4 hours ago, pointman said:

No one takes someone that calls themselves "Da Ducktator" seriously. Questioning Rosen's arm strength is cute. He clearly didn't watch him throw bombs at the combine that rivaled Allen's arm.

What with his 600 followers?  Hell the guy looks younger than Josh Rosen.  Heck anyone can go back and find every single mistake that a QB makes and then question the play.  Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and just about everyone in the NFL HoF included.

But no film on the other 300 or so great plays?  Against Memphis, who was an elite team that took an undefeated UCF team to OT, he did throw for 463 yards and 4 TDs.  

I can admit that Allen, Rosen, and Darnold were all hindered by their coaching staffs.  

[Thai Jet]

3 hours ago, Philc1 said:

I remember 20 years ago fanboys screaming about how Leaf was better than Manning.  Manning could never win the big games at Tennessee, weak arm comes from rich family not hungry blah blah blah

They were right about Manning at Tennessee. They won the National Championship the year AFTER Peyton graduated. Oh their QB that year....the wonderfully talented .....Tee Martin. lol

[TuscanyTile2]

5 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Remember when they did this same sh*t with Andrew Luck and before that all those draft savants saying ACTUALLY Ryan Leaf should be the first overall pick because look at this gif?

Did they have gifs back in Ryan Leaf's day?

[Larz]

**** it, draft a corner 

[Doggin94it]

3 hours ago, HessStation said:

You freaking guys and quoting the whole OP and me trying to scroll through this thread on my phone.

Yeah.  That's just

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

wrong

[HessStation]

1 hour ago, Doggin94it said:

Yeah.  That's just

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

wrong

Seriously. Oh hey guys. You just made this thread unreadable, good job ****ers.?

[Doggin94it]

2 hours ago, HessStation said:

Seriously. Oh hey guys. You just made this thread unreadable, good job ****ers.?

Just pull over, Hess!  (How've you been, btw?)

[HessStation]

8 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Just pull over, Hess!  (How've you been, btw?)

This job is killing me bro.

jk fine and you?

[GreenFish]

9 hours ago, bealeb319 said:

Can we see the scouting reports on Brady next?

Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app
 

Brady - has the potential to be great but lacks athletism, has questionable sideline antics and eats too many avocados. 

[Jet Nut]

8 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Sure, but I think the point many are making is he will be in the bottom half, likely bottom third of arm strength of starting QB's in the NFL.  

It's certainly strong enough but not exceptional at all.

Payton's arm was definiately stronger.

Not true, he's not on the bottom half.