Brian Billick on Joe Douglas

[Philc1]

Just please no more Norwegian kickers who can’t put the ball in the ocean

[pdxgreen]

"Need" is a terrible evaluator.  Someone needs to put that on a placard above every Jets draft board from now on.

[FidelioJet]

1 hour ago, slats said:

How much worse is the WR position, really? And is it really worse? I mean, you pound this point like they lost Megatron and signed Stephen Hill. How much better would the WR corps be with Robby? Or did you want Amari Cooper for $20M+/year? They added a couple former first-rounders to compete for jobs. 

The best players available to help the position are in the draft. Can we take a breath and wait and see what they do then? 

Well, our best WR was replaced with someone with literally half of his production.  That’s pretty substantial to me.

[BettyBoop]

3 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

This article is inherently flawed.  His basic premise that Douglas has options is wrong. Particularly on the two positions he mentions. 
 

The WR position was clearly downgraded, which currently the worst WR core in the league.  How does that give him more options?

As for OL - going into the season with Fant and Edoga as your starters would be utter negligence  He has to take a T early  

there were opportunities to actually upgrade those positions and Douglas chose not to pay what it would take to get it done  agsin, I’m NOT saying what JD is doing is wrong just that Billick doesn’t know what he’s talking about and this article is literally the opposite of the reality.  JD’s hands are completely tied  

 

 

And if I recall correctly there were many articles on what a great hire Bowles was prior to his first season.  And just like in this article we read that he was everything his predecessor was not.  These fluff pieces are part of the NFLers doing whatever they can to help one another.  They're meaningless.

[Jet Blast]

Some of you are talking about choices and options, but I believe that will have little bearing on how Douglas drafts.

Either you are not paying attention OR you don't want to face the truth. Everything I have read and heard about Douglas says he will draft the best available player. He believes drafting based on need is a recipe for failure.

[UnknownJetFan]

3 hours ago, NYJ1 said:

The players that Douglas took in FA does not leave Douglas with latitude. It only leaves him latitude in round 1. OT is still a dire need. Also, Douglas still needs to add a player that's a truly great talent that the OL can be built around. You very rarely get that player in round 3 or later. So the need for a Tackle is still huge in round 1 or 2.

If we come out of rounds 1 and 2 with OT and WR that will be a good start.

[FidelioJet]

11 minutes ago, Jet Blast said:

Some of you are talking about choices and options, but I believe that will have little bearing on how Douglas drafts.

You are not paying attention OR don't want to face the truth. Everything I have read and heard about Douglas says he will draft the best available player. He believes drafting based on need is a recipe for failure.

We really have no idea how he’ll draft. A thing you’ve heard or read is pure speculation.

We’ll learn a lot in a couple of weeks. 

[FidelioJet]

1 minute ago, UnknownJetFan said:

If we come out of rounds 1 and 2 with OT and WR that will be a good start.

I think it pretty much has to be that way. 
 

[jgb]

11 hours ago, slats said:

I think the definition of drafting for need would be targeting a single position in the first round. Like the good portion of folks here who will lose their collective poop if he drafts anything other than an OT at #11. 

He worked free agency knowing that OT and WR were well represented in the draft. Nothing wrong with that approach, and it's one that's followed pretty much around the league. That's why guys like Jack Conklin and Robby Anderson didn't get paid close to the numbers rumored over the winter. 

I used the DL example above, too, but I really don't even see either of those guys really getting a better draft grade than the top WRs or OTs this year. 

There is only taking the best player overall or taking best player that fills one of your needs. People malign “drafting for need” by defining it inaccurately: “going into a draft fixated on one position come Hell or high water.” Don’t think any GM does that unless searching for a QB. 
 

It’s funny because I think both sides of this debate actually agree—except one calls it “drafting best available player taking into consideration the team’s needs” and the other “drafting to fill team needs taking into account the best player available.” The extremes: The GM that blindly takes the highest guy on the board while completely ignoring the team’s current situation and the GM who consistently ignores vastly superior players to reach way down the board simply due to need, only exist on paper.

[Lurker89]

4 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

This article is inherently flawed.  His basic premise that Douglas has options is wrong. Particularly on the two positions he mentions. 
 

The WR position was clearly downgraded, which currently the worst WR core in the league.  How does that give him more options?

As for OL - going into the season with Fant and Edoga as your starters would be utter negligence  He has to take a T early  

there were opportunities to actually upgrade those positions and Douglas chose not to pay what it would take to get it done  

agsin, I’m NOT saying what JD is doing is wrong just that Billick doesn’t know what he’s talking about and this article is literally the opposite of the reality.  JD’s hands are completely tied  

 

 

Where was the potential upgrade at WR you speak of?

After Amari signed back with Dallas the top FA on the very weak market was our very own Robby Anderson. I believe that means the best we could do is break even at WR.

 

Tackle is a different story but guys like Conklin still have issues (health) that make them a gamble.

The team who drafted him declined his 5th year option and had their reasons. If we gave Conklin that deal (42/3 with 30 gtd) would you be in board with it?

If Conklin doesn't pan out the browns are still locked in for 2021. JD took a gamble with Fant but didn't paint himself into a corner long term. Browns took a gamble and will be playing and paying Conklin in '21 either way. The options were neither plentiful nor ideal.

[NYDreamer]

So when the Ravens come out of the Draft with Jonathan Ogden and Ray Lewis that is an incredible scouting and let's face it...Luck.  While this article is about Joe Douglas a name we keep over looking is Phil Savage.  Savage was a major voice with bringing and building that Ravens Franchise....Savage and Douglas are working together again and I believe their communication and talents will elevate this teams drafts to excellence.  

 

 

[Lurker89]

3 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

I don’t disagree - but that’s not really the point.  The only point I was trying to make was the article was simple BS.  It’s clear Biliick started with a premise that JD was going to be like Ozzie - then created a narrative to fit that.

JD has not, in fact, solidified the positions he reference and in one case it’s actually worse.  

I’m not questioning JD just the article.

I agree with the bold, this positions are far from solid.

I just don't think there were any great options that I wanted to throw a Brinks truck at.

[FidelioJet]

13 minutes ago, Lurker89 said:

Where was the potential upgrade at WR you speak of?

After Amari signed back with Dallas the top FA on the very weak market was our very own Robby Anderson. I believe that means the best we could do is break even at WR.

 

Tackle is a different story but guys like Conklin still have issues (health) that make them a gamble.

The team who drafted him declined his 5th year option and had their reasons. If we gave Conklin that deal (42/3 with 30 gtd) would you be in board with it?

If Conklin doesn't pan out the browns are still locked in for 2021. JD took a gamble with Fant but didn't paint himself into a corner long term. Browns took a gamble and will be playing and paying Conklin in '21 either way. The options were neither plentiful nor ideal.

Keeping Robby was an upgrade.

and I’ll say it again for the countless time - I’m not saying JD is doing a bad job, just that the article is BS.  Nothing he did freed him up for the draft, in fact you can make the claim his hands are more now than they were before FA started.

The first two picks HAVE to be T/WR or WR/T

 

[Lurker89]

20 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Keeping Robby was an upgrade.

and I’ll say it again for the countless time - I’m not saying JD is doing a bad job, just that the article is BS.  Nothing he did freed him up for the draft, in fact you can make the claim his hands are more now than they were before FA started.

The first two picks HAVE to be T/WR or WR/T

You w

I want nothing but  T/WR or WR/T with our first two picks, as well.

I just disagree about the greatness of Robby or that retaining him would leave us in a "much" better situation.... yes he had more production than the rest of the available FA market, he also played nearly 100% of the offensive snaps as a WR1 because we so horribly ignored the position for so long. None of the other  available FA WRS had that kind of play because they were on teams that actually fielded a WR Corp.

Robby has chance to show out and prove himself on a roster with other NFL caliber Receivers and other mouths to feed this year. We'll have to see if it pans out.

[Joejet]

2 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Well, our best WR was replaced with someone with literally half of his production.  That’s pretty substantial to me.

Anderson was 52, 779, 5 tds

Perriman was 36, 645, 6 tds

That is not literally half.

[Long Island Leprechaun]

44 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Keeping Robby was an upgrade.

and I’ll say it again for the countless time - I’m not saying JD is doing a bad job, just that the article is BS.  Nothing he did freed him up for the draft, in fact you can make the claim his hands are more now than they were before FA started.

The first two picks HAVE to be T/WR or WR/T

 

Or corner, if Okudah miraculously fell. OT in the second, WR in the third.

[Patriot Killa]

6 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

Or corner, if Okudah miraculously fell. OT in the second, WR in the third.

WR in the 2nd at the minimum if you ask me. Way too important right now. I trust Desir, I like Blessan and I love Poole. That doesn’t mean ignore CB but nah WR is top of the top unless an OT is there that you can’t pass.

[FidelioJet]

57 minutes ago, Joejet said:

Anderson was 52, 779, 5 tds

Perriman was 36, 645, 6 tds

That is not literally half.

4 year career each - you can’t look at 25% of someones career as a true metric.

Perriman - 1,561 and 11

Robby - 3,959 and 20

That’s half the production.

[ljr]

16 hours ago, Joejet said:

"The next move is obviously in the draft," said Billick. "You certainly need to wrap as much around Sam Darnold as you can. He's going to be the franchise and you put that kind of value on him when you drafted him. You have to give him every opportunity to be successful and that means protecting him."

this was the big takeaway for me

focus on Sam - Offense

focus on protecting Sam - OT

[FidelioJet]

59 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

Or corner, if Okudah miraculously fell. OT in the second, WR in the third.

There’s a pretty good example - because if he did miraculously fall I don’t think he could take him.

At that point he likely trades down to then take a WR or T. 

[adb280z]

2 hours ago, Jet Blast said:

Some of you are talking about choices and options, but I believe that will have little bearing on how Douglas drafts.

Either you are not paying attention OR you don't want to face the truth. Everything I have read and heard about Douglas says he will draft the best available player. He believes drafting based on need is a recipe for failure.

There should be a balance between need and BPA.  BPA has some serious flaws as well.

[Joejet]

5 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

4 year career each - you can’t look at 25% of someones career as a true metric.

Perriman - 1,561 and 11

Robby - 3,959 and 20

That’s half the production.

Sometimes the light bulb comes on later for some people. Career stats don’t always tell the whole picture.

[Long Island Leprechaun]

1 hour ago, Patriot Killa said:

WR in the 2nd at the minimum if you ask me. Way too important right now. I trust Desir, I like Blessan and I love Poole. That doesn’t mean ignore CB but nah WR is top of the top unless an OT is there that you can’t pass.

I wouldn't argue, but was thinking that relative value and depth of each position leans toward WR being deeper. Big drop off by third round on OT.

[#27TheDominator]

10 hours ago, Paradis said:

I'm patient.. I'm not going to rake him over the coals for anything yet. Let's see what he's learned from hanging around competent people.

The only problem i have with this notion of JD being an Ozzie acolyte - is that Ozzie always had a robust roster. He rarely ever had to deal with the volume of issues we have... so there's to be some kind of effort field a reasonable team that isn't just rookies and JAGs.

We'll see. 

Newsome always had a robust roster?  He started in Cleveland with Belichick and was basically their GM from day 1 in Baltimore.  From 1995 on, and the year they beat the Giants in the super bowl was the first time they had a winning record.  5-11, 4-12, 6-9-1, 6-10, 8-8, 12-4 and a super bowl win.  Since then they have been stout, but he started with some lean years building a foundation.  I guess you are correct that Douglas never saw the lean years because he arrived in time for that super bowl season.  Same as he did in Philly.  Guess we are hoping he is a good luck charm, though he sure wasn't for the Bears.

2 hours ago, NYDreamer said:

So when the Ravens come out of the Draft with Jonathan Ogden and Ray Lewis that is an incredible scouting and let's face it...Luck.  While this article is about Joe Douglas a name we keep over looking is Phil Savage.  Savage was a major voice with bringing and building that Ravens Franchise....Savage and Douglas are working together again and I believe their communication and talents will elevate this teams drafts to excellence.  

Savage is a good guy to have around, but he was also kind of a mess with the Browns.  2 firsts and a second for Brady Quinn, forcing the team president to step down, cursing out a fan on email.  People like to act like Douglas had something to do with the Eagles success, but Savage was there for a couple of years and surely had more to do with their success.  I wonder if they will get any direct value from his time at the senior bowl.

 

3 hours ago, Jet Blast said:

Some of you are talking about choices and options, but I believe that will have little bearing on how Douglas drafts.

Either you are not paying attention OR you don't want to face the truth. Everything I have read and heard about Douglas says he will draft the best available player. He believes drafting based on need is a recipe for failure.

Everything I see talks about "team fit."  That is a code word for need.   For this team, drafting Kareem Mckenzie would be more help than drafting Shaun Ellis, so that is how they should lean.  That doesn't mean that he isn't going to pass up Sapp for Ereck Flowers, unless he is an idiot.

[sec101row23]

40 minutes ago, adb280z said:

There should be a balance between need and BPA.  BPA has some serious flaws as well.

Nobody drafts by pure BPA, especially in the very early rounds.   Later in the draft much more so.  

[Beerfish]

3 hours ago, Jet Blast said:

Some of you are talking about choices and options, but I believe that will have little bearing on how Douglas drafts.

Either you are not paying attention OR you don't want to face the truth. Everything I have read and heard about Douglas says he will draft the best available player. He believes drafting based on need is a recipe for failure.

There comes a point where you HAVE to draft for need.  It's BS to suggest otherwise if you ask me and have success.

Quinnen williams was the 'bpa' he was also exactly what this team did not need and the team would be much better off if we had drafted for need.

If Derrick Brown is the bpa at 11 will we draft him?  No fig way. 

This year it is easy to draft bpa because the jets have needs almost every where except dt and safety.  (thanks to mac NOT drafting for need in his tenure.)

[Philc1]

4 hours ago, UnknownJetFan said:

If we come out of rounds 1 and 2 with OT and WR that will be a good start.

This draft is so loaded at both positions my dog could draft a starting caliberWR and OT

[Philc1]

1 hour ago, sec101row23 said:

Nobody drafts by pure BPA, especially in the very early rounds.   Later in the draft much more so.  

BPA is such an over exaggerated term

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

There comes a point where you HAVE to draft for need.  It's BS to suggest otherwise if you ask me and have success.

Quinnen williams was the 'bpa' he was also exactly what this team did not need and the team would be much better off if we had drafted for need.

If Derrick Brown is the bpa at 11 will we draft him?  No fig way. 

This year it is easy to draft bpa because the jets have needs almost every where except dt and safety.  (thanks to mac NOT drafting for need in his tenure.)

 

Macc's BPA didn't account for positional importance.  BPA works as long as you appropriately value premium positions higher on your board.

The  # 4 OT or # 5 EDGE is always better than the # 1 run-stuffing DT.  

[Big_Slick]

15 hours ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

Or corner, if Okudah miraculously fell. OT in the second, WR in the third.

There would have to be some kind of an issue if he fell to #11.

[FidelioJet]

18 hours ago, Beerfish said:

There comes a point where you HAVE to draft for need.  It's BS to suggest otherwise if you ask me and have success.

Quinnen williams was the 'bpa' he was also exactly what this team did not need and the team would be much better off if we had drafted for need.

If Derrick Brown is the bpa at 11 will we draft him?  No fig way. 

This year it is easy to draft bpa because the jets have needs almost every where except dt and safety.  (thanks to mac NOT drafting for need in his tenure.)

I get this concept of BPA - but, as we all know, the draft really is a crap shoot.

Within reason, why not take a position of need?  

Obviously if there’s a huge disparity between two players I can understand it but if it’s close - take the position you need. 

My guess is most teams do that - It was clear Mac was just in way over his head and lacked the basic fundamental knowledge an NFL must possess.  

Let’s hope JD gets it.

[section314]

18 hours ago, Beerfish said:

There comes a point where you HAVE to draft for need.  It's BS to suggest otherwise if you ask me and have success.

Quinnen williams was the 'bpa' he was also exactly what this team did not need and the team would be much better off if we had drafted for need.

If Derrick Brown is the bpa at 11 will we draft him?  No fig way. 

This year it is easy to draft bpa because the jets have needs almost every where except dt and safety.  (thanks to mac NOT drafting for need in his tenure.)

There was only one idiot in the NFL that thought Q was worth the 3rd pick, and unfortunately for the Jets, he had the pick.

[BettyBoop]

22 hours ago, NYDreamer said:

So when the Ravens come out of the Draft with Jonathan Ogden and Ray Lewis that is an incredible scouting and let's face it...Luck.  While this article is about Joe Douglas a name we keep over looking is Phil Savage.  Savage was a major voice with bringing and building that Ravens Franchise....Savage and Douglas are working together again and I believe their communication and talents will elevate this teams drafts to excellence.  

 

 

How do we know this?

[slats]

20 hours ago, Beerfish said:

There comes a point where you HAVE to draft for need.  It's BS to suggest otherwise if you ask me and have success.

Quinnen williams was the 'bpa' he was also exactly what this team did not need and the team would be much better off if we had drafted for need.

If Derrick Brown is the bpa at 11 will we draft him?  No fig way. 

This year it is easy to draft bpa because the jets have needs almost every where except dt and safety.  (thanks to mac NOT drafting for need in his tenure.)

Teams as godawful as the Jets have the luxury of needing just about everything. If they find themselves in a position where they have two prospects rated close to equally, and one of them is a DT, they're gonna take the other player. The Jets have given the BAP philosophy a bad name with all the DTs and crappy drafting in general. Like taking a safety when you desperately need a QB and there are two potential franchise guys just sitting there... 

Positional value and team needs (and perhaps scheme fit?) have to be weighed into player evaluations. But if you have a player at a position you're content with rated dramatically higher than every other prospect on your board, you have to leverage that somehow. Derrick Brown feels like another slug on the DL to me, but if Bruce Smith was sitting there, that might be something else. They have to be able to either absorb the best prospect, or add assets by trading down. And this is where the rich get richer. Teams that are already good can comfortably add that BAP because they're not needy, and thus their roster gets that much better. A bottom dweller like the Jets might be more inclined to reach over that BAP to fill a need and over time, IMHO, that's how your roster keeps slogging along in mediocrity. 

All the Jets really have to do here is not overthink it. Of their biggest needs entering the offseason, the CB spot was probably addressed the most significantly with Desir. An Edge is a perennial need, but you can kinda trust Gregg Williams to scheme something of a pass rush for you. Meanwhile, the top of the draft has some great OT and WR prospects, and that's where their needs lie. At #11, they're almost certain to be deciding between an OT, WR, or trading down and then taking a WR or an OT. Should be pretty easy without passing on superior prospects for need. As you get to the later rounds, and the prospects are bunched closer together, you can start selecting players more based on need. If you haven't taken an Edge by the fifth round, grab your top guy. That sort of thing. But early, when there is a lot of separation, you gotta try to stick to BAP as best as you can - like the good team you hope one day to be. 

[Jet Blast]

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