Zach Wilson can’t throw short narrative debunked

[T0mShane]

6 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Further context: Berrios played only one of those games. The final week, he was throwing too Mims, Cole, Smith & Black. The prior week it was Berrios Smith & Cole. 

 

And Berrios only had 8 catches

Ahh. I blame formatting:

 

[David Harris]

I need something to complain about then

[PorP]

10 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I will share two charts from PFF.  Enjoy.

It didn't have a legend for timeline that I could read... on my phone if it is there. 

What I did think I saw was annual numbers.  Again outside of the scope of this conversation. 

No one will disagree about ZWs last year.  But your failing to agree something happened on the back half of the year for ZW and the team. 

Did zW comp #s go down... sure.... now show me all QBs playing north of the Mason Dixon line who's #s didn't suffer late November and later. 

Did the jets go into every game 4th quarter still in the game for the last 6 games.... yep... the team blowing up in the 4th is not all on the rookie QB

Did ZW protect the ball better those last 5 or 6 games...... he probably had the best td to int ratio in the entire league.

Was he a great qb in the red zone... one of the best. 

Please let me know where I am missing a beat. 

 

 

[Dunnie]

Context: Zach Wilson competed 26 passes combined in his last two games. 13 of those completions went to Braxton Berrios.

Was there a reason you singled out Berrios ? Is that a negative in your book ? Asking for a friend ... cause while I love BB ... hes a WR3 ... so completing passes to him at that rate is spectacular in my world.

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[GangGreened]

Remember Sam Darnolds final 4 games of his rookie year? (that were much better than ZW)

Pepperidge farms remembers

[Jetworks]

He sure can get it somewhere in a hurry. Hopefully he can be more accurate than last year in doing so.

 

[PorP]

52 minutes ago, GangGreened said:

Remember Sam Darnolds final 4 games of his rookie year? (that were much better than ZW)

Pepperidge farms remembers

[Jet_Engine1]

2 hours ago, Bronx said:

His reward...

Damn.

[Jet_Engine1]

3 minutes ago, Jetworks said:

He sure can get it somewhere in a hurry. Hopefully he can be more accurate than last year in doing so.

 

Daaaamn.

[T0mShane]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Ahh. I blame formatting:

 

Because I am an assiduous researcher who can totally read spreadsheets, I went back and looked at the Jets leaders in targets over the last four games. #1 is Berrios with 19 targets (despite missing the last game). #2 is Keelan Cole with 12. #3 is Tyler Kroft (10), and #4 is Michael Carter, with 9. 

[Drums]

1 hour ago, Jetworks said:

He sure can get it somewhere in a hurry. Hopefully he can be more accurate than last year in doing so.

 

Rumor has it, it was on a 5 yard out

JK!!!!!

[maury77]

3 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Zach Wilson was a top 5 rated QB in passes between 0-9 yards in the final 4 games of the season.  

He played 12 - so the last 3rd of HIS season he was right up there with the best in the NFL.   I posted this elsewhere but think it’s worthy of its own thread because it seems to such a major talking point.   
It certainly doesn’t mean he’ll be good this year but it surely shows he’s capable  

 

 

Does the Wilson family pay you by the hour or on a percentage of his salary? Not hating, I'm just curious. 

[jgb]

3 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Zach Wilson was a top 5 rated QB in passes between 0-9 yards in the final 4 games of the season.  

He played 12 - so the last 3rd of HIS season he was right up there with the best in the NFL.   I posted this elsewhere but think it’s worthy of its own thread because it seems to such a major talking point.   
It certainly doesn’t mean he’ll be good this year but it surely shows he’s capable  

 

 

This is an interesting, stat-based argument for optimism. Nice job. 

[Jet_Engine1]

24 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Because I am an assiduous researcher who can totally read spreadsheets, I went back and looked at the Jets leaders in targets over the last four games. #1 is Berrios with 19 targets (despite missing the last game). #2 is Keelan Cole with 12. #3 is Tyler Kroft (10), and #4 is Michael Carter, with 9. 

These are accurate data points. The added context is the location/status of WR #1 Corey Davis and WR #2 Eli Moore during this period of statistical analysis.  

 

They were broken. Same as Mims. Keelan Cole was a disappointment.  Berrios was pretty much the only viable NFL level WR left on the roster for 3 out of the last 4 games. 

At least our young QB can recognize his best option left on the field, I guess.  

[HighPitch]

Omg what difference does the context in this case have to do with this?

bottom line is as a rookie he vastly improved on the short game in the later games.

cant you vultures just ever accept something nice?

 

[shevys]

58 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Because I am an assiduous researcher who can totally read spreadsheets, I went back and looked at the Jets leaders in targets over the last four games. #1 is Berrios with 19 targets (despite missing the last game). #2 is Keelan Cole with 12. #3 is Tyler Kroft (10), and #4 is Michael Carter, with 9. 

World-beaters, all of them. 

[rtnelson]

6 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Not the argument. Berrios played more, he has an average depth of target of 5.4 yards, and Zach threw it to him a lot in two of the last four games, which skewed the numbers Fidelio is peddling.

How would that skew the passer rating?  Berrios is good thus gained more yardage?  Good thing he is still on the team.  Its not number of short throws or completion percentage, its passer rating on those throws.

It's a good stat, but not one that guarentees future success. Its okay to be happy he improved in an area so many were saying he struggled with and continue to peddle including to this day.

[Maxman]

5 hours ago, GangGreened said:

Remember Sam Darnolds final 4 games of his rookie year? (that were much better than ZW)

Pepperidge farms remembers

Looking back that is still so damn frustrating. Looked like the kid turned a corner and it turned out to be a brick wall.

[Maxman]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Because I am an assiduous researcher who can totally read spreadsheets, I went back and looked at the Jets leaders in targets over the last four games. #1 is Berrios with 19 targets (despite missing the last game). #2 is Keelan Cole with 12. #3 is Tyler Kroft (10), and #4 is Michael Carter, with 9. 

Nothing to do with the topic at hand but hot damn it is nice to see roster upgrades this year.  Even when the inevitable injuries happen there will be better choices. Michael Carter was impressive and they upgraded. Keelan Cole? Damn.

Really love what Douglas did this offseason. I think Zach will be fine but the pressure is on him because he has playmakers.

[T0mShane]

4 hours ago, rtnelson said:

How would that skew the passer rating?  Berrios is good thus gained more yardage?  Good thing he is still on the team.  Its not number of short throws or completion percentage, its passer rating on those throws.

It's a good stat, but not one that guarentees future success. Its okay to be happy he improved in an area so many were saying he struggled with and continue to peddle including to this day.

So, Wilson threw the ball between 0-9 yards on 49% of his passing attempts, and another 16% of the time, he threw it behind the line of scrimmage on screens and whatnot. He threw it short a lot, which is one of the things PFF doesn’t love about him. The good news is that his accuracy wasn’t terrible on those passes relative to the rest of his targets: passer rating of 88.6 on 0-9 (league average is 98.5), and 83% on passes behind the line (league average is 93.1). His on-target percentage on 0-9 is 76% (league average is 82%). So it’s a bit of a straw man to say that Zach *can’t* throw short. I think what the complaint was is that Zach missed a lot of layups, which he did because he had a lot of pass attempts in that short area and he missed a lot of those because he was less accurate on those throws than the median quarterback in the league. That number spiked in the last four games because Berrios became a major contributor and opposing teams were more than happy to sit back and let Zach throw the ball to him 5.4 yards down the field.

[TuscanyTile2]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

So, Wilson threw the ball between 0-9 yards on 49% of his passing attempts, and another 16% of the time, he threw it behind the line of scrimmage on screens and whatnot. He threw it short a lot, which is one of the things PFF doesn’t love about him. The good news is that his accuracy wasn’t terrible on those passes relative to the rest of his targets: passer rating of 88.6 on 0-9 (league average is 98.5), and 83% on passes behind the line (league average is 93.1). His on-target percentage on 0-9 is 76% (league average is 82%). So it’s a bit of a straw man to say that Zach *can’t* throw short. I think what the complaint was is that Zach missed a lot of layups, which he did because he had a lot of pass attempts in that short area and he missed a lot of those because he was less accurate on those throws than the median quarterback in the league. That number spiked in the last four games because Berrios became a major contributor and opposing teams were more than happy to sit back and let Zach throw the ball to him 5.4 yards down the field.

Would love to know Mike White's numbers from 0-9 and behind the LOS.  I'm guessing they were significantly better.

[IndianaJet]

10 hours ago, Larz said:

The ugly bounce passes... 

This is where the narrative comes from.  Some of his misses in short range were so bad it rots the brain into thinking the issue was much worse then it really is.  

[T0mShane]

20 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Would love to know Mike White's numbers from 0-9 and behind the LOS.  I'm guessing they were significantly better.

Coincidentally, I would have to upgrade to “PFF Elite” to view Mike White’s stats.

[rtnelson]

25 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

So, Wilson threw the ball between 0-9 yards on 49% of his passing attempts, and another 16% of the time, he threw it behind the line of scrimmage on screens and whatnot. He threw it short a lot, which is one of the things PFF doesn’t love about him. The good news is that his accuracy wasn’t terrible on those passes relative to the rest of his targets: passer rating of 88.6 on 0-9 (league average is 98.5), and 83% on passes behind the line (league average is 93.1). His on-target percentage on 0-9 is 76% (league average is 82%). So it’s a bit of a straw man to say that Zach *can’t* throw short. I think what the complaint was is that Zach missed a lot of layups, which he did because he had a lot of pass attempts in that short area and he missed a lot of those because he was less accurate on those throws than the median quarterback in the league. That number spiked in the last four games because Berrios became a major contributor and opposing teams were more than happy to sit back and let Zach throw the ball to him 5.4 yards down the field.

So they were happy to let Zach throw for 5.4 yards a clip.  But the rest of the league at the same time were biting down hard on everything short.  So Zach had it easy?  You would think Berrios being the only weapon on the field that posed any threat he would be the #1 target for defenders.  This also includes the last game in which Cole was the #1 receiver.

Look, we all know Zach as a whole stunk last year.  But in the back quarter of his starts he was top 5 in passer rating on short passes.  That's just a fact, no reason to convolute it beyond that.  You can still believe he sucks while still accepting that he's not terrible at short throws like many here try and make him out to be.

[T0mShane]

4 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

So they were happy to let Zach throw for 5.4 yards a clip.  But the rest of the league at the same time were biting down hard on everything short.  So Zach had it easy?  You would think Berrios being the only weapon on the field that posed any threat he would be the #1 target for defenders.  This also includes the last game in which Cole was the #1 receiver.

Look, we all know Zach as a whole stunk last year.  But in the back quarter of his starts he was top 5 in passer rating on short passes.  That's just a fact, no reason to convolute it beyond that.  You can still believe he sucks while still accepting that he's not terrible at short throws like many here try and make him out to be.

I think the point is that you could throw it to Berrios a thousand times and he still wouldn’t pose any threat. 

[rtnelson]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

I think the point is that you could throw it to Berrios a thousand times and he still wouldn’t pose any threat. 

Yeah, one of these days we won't have a guy like Berrios on the team.  Don't worry.

[FidelioJet]

Since there seem to be so many angry people about something positive about Zach Wilson - I thought I would try and clarify the purpose of this post.

1) It's NOT meant to say Zach Wilson was good last year, he wasn't.

2) It's NOT even meant to say he was good the last four games of last year - while he was better - it was a pretty low bar

3) It's not meant to say he was good with the short ball - for 2/3rd of his season he had many moments that it was reasonable to question his ability to be an NFL QB

With that said - recently, on this board, there seems to be a prevailing theme that Zach Wilson has yet to develop the requisite skill required to be successful in the short passing game.  I've read things like - his hands are too small, he can't control the pace - he throws everything too hard, he has no touch, his footwork isn't precise enough, his accuracy isn't precise enough etc...

ALL this is meant to show is - Zach Wilson has already showed the skill-set to be an efficient short ball NFL QB.

Again...

1) This doesn't mean he'll be good at the short ball next year

2) He still needs to prove he can do it for 17 games - not 4...

But based on this data and my eyes - the traits, skill-set and ability to be successful, with the short game, are ALL there - he just has to be able to execute on it.

Why this upsets so many people I honestly can't explain, but I hope this explanation helps...

 

[T0mShane]

4 hours ago, Maxman said:

Nothing to do with the topic at hand but hot damn it is nice to see roster upgrades this year.  Even when the inevitable injuries happen there will be better choices. Michael Carter was impressive and they upgraded. Keelan Cole? Damn.

Really love what Douglas did this offseason. I think Zach will be fine but the pressure is on him because he has playmakers.

Should be noted that Keelan Cole is currently slated to start at WR2 opposite Davante Adams in Las Vegas and Derek Carr apparently loves him already

[UntouchableCrew]

I don’t think anyone thought Zach didn’t have the capability of completing short throws. Obviously he did…?

The issue was that he seemed to implode under the pressure of the NFL to the point where he had a mental block preventing him from doing the simplest tasks required of a HS level QB.

[IndianaJet]

12 hours ago, Bronx said:

His reward...

Name please?

[FidelioJet]

Sorry, error here.

[Dunnie]

Damn.

... too early in the morning ...

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[JustInFudge]

12 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Zach Wilson was a top 5 rated QB in passes between 0-9 yards in the final 4 games of the season.  

He played 12 - so the last 3rd of HIS season he was right up there with the best in the NFL.   I posted this elsewhere but think it’s worthy of its own thread because it seems to such a major talking point.   
It certainly doesn’t mean he’ll be good this year but it surely shows he’s capable  

 

 

Encouraging when you see it laid out that way, not so much when he’s dirting swing passes.  

[Dunnie]

Name please?

Tebow ... tebow .... te .. aaahhh fug it


... btw maybe my fav post if the offseason.
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[FidelioJet]

8 hours ago, maury77 said:

Does the Wilson family pay you by the hour or on a percentage of his salary? Not hating, I'm just curious. 

I'm plenty critical of Zach - but it's okay to see positives too.

It's easy to be angry and harp solely on the negative - but try it, if you ALSO see the positive it won't kill you - you'll be okay, I promise.