Zach Wilson 2023 - at the Bye Week

[Jet_Engine1]

Here we are at a 3-3, a very improbable 3-3 with wins vs Philly and Buffalo, a close game vs KC, and a loss to one of the 5 worst teams in the league (NE). 

 

So, after so much hyperbole,  nonsense, screaming and simping, where are we really with our 3rd year QB. This is just on Zach, not personnel selections, playcalling, etc. 

 

The Good

After spending the summer as the presumed QB 2, looking at a Redshirt year behind Rodgers... well, we all know what happened. Buffalo seemed caught completely flat-footed and couldn't capitalize.  But then it got ugly for a couple of weeks. Dallas' defense completely overwhelmed the Jets O Line, and while a multi pick game isn't good for anyone,  it didn't effect the final result.  The Pat's game was an abysmal showing... and then things started to get better. A Good game vs KC, a decent game vs Denver, and a "solid" game vs the Eagles.  

 

So why is this in the "Good"? Wilson has finally figured out something Sam Darnold and many other young QBs never did or do. Sometimes it's better to just be "good enough"... as long as you're not throwing picks. We haven't seen "Hero Ball Zach" yet this season. He's been careful and hasn't had a turnover since the fumbled snap vs KC a few weeks ago. The timing of that mistake was brutal, but sh*t happens. Zach didn't win the game vs Philly, but he was good enough, unlike Jalen Hurts, who LOST the game for his team with 3 picks. 

Wilson's statistical trend line is no longer pointing down, his comp. % is over 60 so far this year and his ability to manage the game is markedly improved.

 

The Bad

Red Zone efficiency. It's HORRIBLE. For whatever reason, Wilson is very hesitant to attack into the End Zone from between the 10-20 yard line. Far too many Field Goals are the end result of Jets trips into the RZ. I wanted to be able to blame playcalling, but when plays into the EZ have been called, the accuracy has been subpar.  Wilson gets tight in the shortened field and seems to be hesitant or overthinking.  This should be a point of emphasis over the next 2 weeks (Zach ain't going anywhere, guys. Until ARod is fully cleared and good to go, Wilson is the Jets QB barring unforeseen events). The Redzone production must improve, or Wilson is just another fill in the gap, high level career backup type QB. The lack of Turnovers is good, but the failure to convert chance after chance into 6 is a massive hindrance to the team. 

The Jets are a team with league average+ talent on Offense. Garrett, Breece, Lazard, 3 effective TEs, a deep RB room, and good role players, 4 TDs throuhh 6 games in simply isn't good enough. And Zurleins 9... NINE!! Field Goals the last 2 games just highlights the points being left on the field. This needs to change.

 

The Ugly

Contrary to popular belief in some corners, Hacketts Offense is getting guys wide open all over the place, including in the end zone. Zach needs to stop missing wide open guys. I like that he has apparently finally discovered that Garrett Wilson is pretty much always open, even when he's not, but he MUST start finding the guys who are open by YARDS and get there in his reads faster. It seems for every good throw, there was a better one available.  He needs to start hitting them...

 

And the Sacks. Ties in with what I just wrote, he MUST get faster in reading and pulling the trigger. Sure, when he rolls out and there's a guy standing there ready to blow him up, it's a tough situation to deal with, but he demonstrated yesterday that he knows how to handle that, and he dealt with that exact situation perfectly later (the Roll to the right, screen to the hot behind the rusher). He's gotta be more consistent. 

 

Bottom line? If he manages to fix one of his 3 biggest remaining issues, it would be massive. An improvement in RZ efficiency should be the #1 priority.  Shoot, a 20% improvement would be monumental for the team moving forward. 

 

Right now we have an efficient game manager. It is what it is. He's doing his job at an acceptable level, but in order for the Jets to do anything beyond stringing a few wins together here and there by playing stifling Defense and rudimentary base level Offense, Wilson has to get better in the RZ. 

 

Beyond that, who knows? If he continues to improve,  could he become an "average NFL starting QB"? Sure. I guess. But he's not there yet. Regardless of where he was picked, he needs to get better, but he has improved.

His stats this season are still dragged down by those 3 picks v Dallas and a TERRIBLE game v NE, but unlike Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and a bunch of others, while he's not taking games over, he hasn't been throwing them away, either.

 

Now, GET BETTER IN THE RED ZONE, KID!

 

 

[Darnold's Forehead]

You should only have a GOOD section.

Hater.

[Rhg1084]

He’s not turning the ball over and he’s “managing” these games. With a defense like the one we have that’s all we need right now. 20 points a game should get us a lot of victories this season 

[whodeawhodat]

Agreed, after practice they should have an additional 30 minutes for the offense just to work on red zone.

[Joe W. Namath]

Best case scenario is this is 2010 Jets.  Defense, run the ball and a qb who cant do much but just do not turn the ball over.

 

[FactsOnly]

Just now, Jet_Engine1 said:

 

Contrary to popular belief in some corners, Hacketts Offense is getting guys wide open all over the place, including in the end zone.

[FactsOnly]

44 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

He’s not turning the ball over and he’s “managing” these games. With a defense like the one we have that’s all we need right now. 20 points a game should get us a lot of victories this season 

vs Elite defenses

wait for that 2nd half

[Warfish]

47 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

He’s not turning the ball over and he’s “managing” these games. With a defense like the one we have that’s all we need right now.

Almost a word for word verbatim quote from several folks last year around the bye week. 

All you're missing is the "Zach is 5-1" part we heard so much last year. 

[Rhg1084]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

Almost a word for word verbatim quote from several folks last year around the bye week. 

All you're missing is the "Zach is 5-1" part we heard so much last year. 

Honestly - what other options are there right now? You want Boyal or Simien in there? Or would you rather trade for Tannehill? Zach is our best option right now bottom line. I’m hopeful Rodgers can come back towards end of season and they can still make a superbowl push. 

[chirorob]

2 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Honestly - what other options are there right now? You want Boyal or Simien in there? Or would you rather trade for Tannehill? Zach is our best option right now bottom line. I’m hopeful Rodgers can come back towards end of season and they can still make a superbowl push. 

Didn't Tannehill get hurt yesterday?

[Warfish]

1 minute ago, Rhg1084 said:

Honestly - what other options are there right now?

None in my view, at this time. 

For all real-world options, cost exceeds return, or improvement certainty is lacking.

I know I say this alot, but two things can be true at the same time:

1. Zach is a poorly performing QB that some of us think we should move on from asap.

2. We're stuck with Zach in 2023.

1 minute ago, Rhg1084 said:

I’m hopeful Rodgers can come back towards end of season and they can still make a superbowl push. 

That's a common sentiment at JN these days, the historic and unprecedented short recovery time of our 40 year old QB.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

54 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

He’s not turning the ball over and he’s “managing” these games. With a defense like the one we have that’s all we need right now. 20 points a game should get us a lot of victories this season 

Agreed.

The mythical “ceiling” will never be hit.

The most “winning” aspect of ZW’s game yesterday was he managed to not fumble or toss a pick.

[OilfieldJet]

Also good: 1) Zach has run reasonably well for real yardage. Not too much, but effective, 2) Few INTs, 3) Not many dirt balls.

Also bad: 1) Throw accuracy mediocre at times - he is going to get a receiver killed.

[Jetsfan80]

DISCLAIMER:  Yes, I'm aware the team won a monster game. 

POSITIVES:  Zach has gotten better between the 20s, and has avoided bad throws/turnovers, and is also getting better when he scrambles.  He's also still ranked in the top 20 on play action.

NEGATIVES:  Everything else.

 

Ratings

• QB Rating:  73.4 (31st)
• QBR:  37.5 (29th)

Yardage/Air Yards

• YPA:  6.0 (30th)
• Yards/Game:  182.8 (30th)
• Adjusted YPA:  5.2 (29th)
• Net YPA:  5.18 (30th)
• Adjusted Net YPA:  4.09 (31st)
• Completed Air Yards per PA:  3.2 (25th)

Accuracy

• Comp %:  60.4 (29th)
• Expected Comp %:  59.7 (34th)
• Bad Throw %:  12.9 (13th)
• On Target %:  60.6 % (26th)

Efficiency

• TD %:  2.2 (31st)
• INT %:  2.7 (23rd)
• Pass Success %:  35.8 (33rd)

Pressure

• Sack %:  9.5 (28th)
• Time to Throw:  2.97 sec (7th) 
• Pocket Time:  2.0 (t-16th)  -- I.E. he's getting the t-16th MOST time in the pocket
• Yards per Scramble:  8.3 (11th)

Play Action

• Play Action Yardage:  225 (18th)
• PA Yardage per Play:  8.33 (19th)

[Patriot Killa]

2 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

He’s not turning the ball over and he’s “managing” these games. With a defense like the one we have that’s all we need right now. 20 points a game should get us a lot of victories this season 

Yeah but you cannot win every game with your QB playing in neutral. It doesn’t work like that. In a perfect world, you shut down every team you play but there will be a Dallas game or two. Maybe a Miami game? Maybe the Bills game? Maybe the Chargers get the best of the defense that week? These aren’t things you expect, but they are things you have to be prepared for, the main way you stick in games that are starting to get away from you (and I know, this is like, a super complicated way of saying..) you SHOW THE ABILITY YOU CAN GET 6 WHEN YOU NEED TO.
 

How about a game where you can get 6 in consecutive drives? Are these things not normal in the NFL? We have not shown we are capable of that. For mistake free as we have been, we’re still an extremely limited offense.

Look, I’m not mad at the game plan, I’m not mad at him playing risk free. I just know I see a guy who doesn’t have the capability of being consistent enough to convert those big 3rd downs needed to jab back at opponents mid-game. the majority of our points this season are field goals for a reason.

clean the red zone stuff up & we’ll talk about it.

[greenwichjetfan]

4 hours ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Contrary to popular belief in some corners, Hacketts Offense is getting guys wide open all over the place, including in the end zone. Zach needs to stop missing wide open guys. I like that he has apparently finally discovered that Garrett Wilson is pretty much always open, even when he's not, but he MUST start finding the guys who are open by YARDS and get there in his reads faster. It seems for every good throw, there was a better one available.  He needs to start hitting them...

This is my biggest gripe with him. The all-22 breakdowns the last two weeks had shown that we should have comfortably beaten the Chiefs and blown out the Broncos if Zach would just hit the open guys when they're open. Too many times he either would miss the read completely, be slightly late on the read, or make the right read at the right time and throw an inaccurate ball. Happened again yesterday on at least the two occasions I could see just from the broadcast.

These misses are not just resulting in incompletions; they're indirectly leaving points off the board by stalling drives, or directly leaving points off the board by preventing TDs. And then of course there's the add-on effect of the defense having to get back on the field quicker and more often without the benefit of scored points. 

I think if he were to solve this, it would also solve the red zone woes, because (1) there would need to be lesser red zone opportunities as we'd have longer TD passes/catch and runs, and (2) the coaches might trust him more in the RZ and cater to having more success there.

==========================

Trying to end on a positive note: I haven't been as impressed with Zach as a lot of others have been over the last three weeks, but credit where it's due: he's being safer with the ball, has cleaned up his accuracy on swing/screen passes, and is definitely being smarter pre-snap. My three favorite Zach plays from yesterday's game:

(1) The two point conversion where he hung in the pocket instead of bailing, threw a pass with anticipation, and used his god given ability to fire a rocket over the middle and convert.
(2) When he rushed to get the snap off as Philly was subbing and caught them with 12 men on the field
(3) When he got the D to jump offsides and hit Garrett for a 25 yard play (even though it was called back on that bullsh*t call)
(Honorable Mention): The deep pass down the sideline to Garrett. There wasn't much for him to do there, but I love that he found Garrett in single coverage and threw it up trusting Garrett to come down with it. The best QBs in the league do this with a lot of consistency when they know they have a game breaker like Wilson on the outside. 

[TheAustrian]

For the Zachy-boys I'm a hater for sure, but they are right at one point ... he is a backup now ... we ****ed up as we picked him at 2 - not his fault.
When he sticks to his actual performance give him a 1mio contract for a qb3 spot and draft another one - when he improves and shows some touch downs in the next games - think about let him sit behind aaron as qb2 - he's not 60 years old - he can learn i guess

[Jet_Engine1]

3 hours ago, FactsOnly said:

I'm sorry you can't afford NFL+ with the all-22. Maybe we can take up a collection for you? You know, so you can actually get some of those Facts...

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Takes too many sacks. Has to anticipate more. 
Offense overall needs to get better with these dumb penalties, setting them back and killing drives. 

[FactsOnly]

23 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

I'm sorry you can't afford NFL+ with the all-22. Maybe we can take up a collection for you? You know, so you can actually get some of those Facts...

guy talking about affording something that costs 100 dollars

 

[Spoot-Face]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

DISCLAIMER:  Yes, I'm aware the team won a monster game. 

POSITIVES:  Zach has gotten better between the 20s, and has avoided bad throws/turnovers, and is also getting better when he scrambles.  He's also still ranked in the top 20 on play action.

NEGATIVES:  Everything else.

 

Ratings

• QB Rating:  73.4 (31st)
• QBR:  37.5 (29th)

Yardage/Air Yards

• YPA:  6.0 (30th)
• Yards/Game:  182.8 (30th)
• Adjusted YPA:  5.2 (29th)
• Net YPA:  5.18 (30th)
• Adjusted Net YPA:  4.09 (31st)
• Completed Air Yards per PA:  3.2 (25th)

Accuracy

• Comp %:  60.4 (29th)
• Expected Comp %:  59.7 (34th)
• Bad Throw %:  12.9 (13th)
• On Target %:  60.6 % (26th)

Efficiency

• TD %:  2.2 (31st)
• INT %:  2.7 (23rd)
• Pass Success %:  35.8 (33rd)

Pressure

• Sack %:  9.5 (28th)
• Time to Throw:  2.97 sec (7th) 
• Pocket Time:  2.0 (t-16th)  -- I.E. he's getting the t-16th MOST time in the pocket
• Yards per Scramble:  8.3 (11th)

Play Action

• Play Action Yardage:  225 (18th)
• PA Yardage per Play:  8.33 (19th)

Whoa, are you trying to get this thread locked by throwing those stats around?

[T0mShane]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

DISCLAIMER:  Yes, I'm aware the team won a monster game. 

POSITIVES:  Zach has gotten better between the 20s, and has avoided bad throws/turnovers, and is also getting better when he scrambles.  He's also still ranked in the top 20 on play action.

NEGATIVES:  Everything else.

 

Ratings

• QB Rating:  73.4 (31st)
• QBR:  37.5 (29th)

Yardage/Air Yards

• YPA:  6.0 (30th)
• Yards/Game:  182.8 (30th)
• Adjusted YPA:  5.2 (29th)
• Net YPA:  5.18 (30th)
• Adjusted Net YPA:  4.09 (31st)
• Completed Air Yards per PA:  3.2 (25th)

Accuracy

• Comp %:  60.4 (29th)
• Expected Comp %:  59.7 (34th)
• Bad Throw %:  12.9 (13th)
• On Target %:  60.6 % (26th)

Efficiency

• TD %:  2.2 (31st)
• INT %:  2.7 (23rd)
• Pass Success %:  35.8 (33rd)

Pressure

• Sack %:  9.5 (28th)
• Time to Throw:  2.97 sec (7th) 
• Pocket Time:  2.0 (t-16th)  -- I.E. he's getting the t-16th MOST time in the pocket
• Yards per Scramble:  8.3 (11th)

Play Action

• Play Action Yardage:  225 (18th)
• PA Yardage per Play:  8.33 (19th)

Being the 31st ranked quarterback is better than being the 34th ranked quarterback (haha progress) and the team has done everything in their natural power to eliminate him from negatively impacting the game. One stat you forgot that the nerds love: Zach Wilson is ranked dead last in EPA per dropback, and he’s in the negative, which means he costs his team points every time he’s asked to throw the ball. 
 

[Beerfish]

The jets have no interest in making any moves at QB, none so lets save all our breaths.  The only way Zach is out is if he gets hurt

[Jetsfan80]

27 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Being the 31st ranked quarterback is better than being the 34th ranked quarterback (haha progress) and the team has done everything in their natural power to eliminate him from negatively impacting the game. One stat you forgot that the nerds love: Zach Wilson is ranked dead last in EPA per dropback, and he’s in the negative, which means he costs his team points every time he’s asked to throw the ball. 
 

[32EBoozer]

6 hours ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Red Zone efficiency. It's HORRIBLE. For whatever reason, Wilson is very hesitant to attack into the End Zone from between the 10-20 yard line

The answer for the above is below! 

6 hours ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Wilson has finally figured out something Sam Darnold and many other young QBs never did or do. Sometimes it's better to just be "good enough"... as long as you're not throwing picks. We haven't seen "Hero Ball Zach" yet this season. He's been careful and hasn't had a turnover since the fumbled snap vs KC a few weeks ago.

Here’s how Zach is seeing the end zone inside the RZ. 8 players packed into the end zone. Panic ensues because he doesn’t want to hurt the team with a TO

 

I blame Hackett equally. You have to run rub routes and misdirection plays to give Zach a clean look
 

 

 

[PS17]

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

Almost a word for word verbatim quote from several folks last year around the bye week. 

All you're missing is the "Zach is 5-1" part we heard so much last year. 

Wow hater 

[PS17]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Being the 31st ranked quarterback is better than being the 34th ranked quarterback (haha progress) and the team has done everything in their natural power to eliminate him from negatively impacting the game. One stat you forgot that the nerds love: Zach Wilson is ranked dead last in EPA per dropback, and he’s in the negative, which means he costs his team points every time he’s asked to throw the ball. 
 

Charge your phone 

[Ron Rico]

Excellent analysis!

The only thing I can add to it is, design at least one play where the receivers stretch the field out and let Zach throw a bomb where either the receiver catches it, or no on catches it. The Jets never do this. Even if the play is designed where he throws it out of bounds, just the fact that they sent 3 WR's deep, it would definitely surprise the defense and get them out of whatever comfort zone they were in thinking it's gonna be the same run run pass to the check down punt offense.

We all know Zach has a strong arm. How about throwing a bomb on first down on the opening drive? Imagine the Jets starting a game 7-0. On the first play. Of the first possession. Now imagine our defense playing with a lead in the first quarter. The dynamic of the game changes entirely. Those red zone FG's that frustrate us so much actually become solid strategy; continue to maintain the lead, instead of scratching and clawing from behind the entire game, where an opposing QB has to to throw a dumb ass interception (Allen and Hurts), that gives us a gift and an opportunity to win. Confidence levels boom. They stay high the whole game, because this ultra conservative play calling that the Jets want to run is cool when you have a lead. 

We're not going to get these gift INT's late in games all the time. That's not a winning formula. 

Design a play. Just one damn play. Go for the damn jugular on first down in the first quarter. No one will expect it. 

[doitny]

lets be real, we won, but Zach did not have a good game. yeah he had no TOs but his line...

he had his 3rd worst statistical game of the year. we have a QB in his 3rd year on pace to throw 11 TDs and 13 INTs with 60 sacks. is that good? no its not. 

Date	Team		Opp	Result	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Rate	Sk	Yds	Sk%	NY/A	ANY/A	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Fmb
2023-10-15	NYJ		PHI	W 20-14	19	33	57.6	186	0	0.0	0	0.0	33	5.6	5.64	9.8	73.5	5	31	13.16	4.08	4.08	4	15	0	9	3.8

[Ron Rico]

I know it sounds simple, but it really is this simple: The Jets have to play with a lead. Get a two score lead, early on, and all of this conservative play calling for the rest of the game is a plus, instead of a negative. Red zone FG's? SWEET!  

Because we are always playing catch up, the conservative play calling, playing for a FG instead of a TD pisses us all off.

But the same exact play calling is actually how to win the game when you have the lead. 

Take all the pressure off Zach that he has the entire game because he's always looking at a scoreboard where the Jets are down and time is running out, that is when he chokes (as do alot of QB's). 

In a nutshell, just figure out a way to score a TD in the first quarter. Start the game with a 7-0 lead. Maintain that lead throughout the game, and I think the knocks on the conservative playcalling and the knocks on the QB will dissipate. 

 

[Ron Rico]

1 minute ago, Ron Rico said:

 

double post

[DireJet]

Pretty Boy is playing for his football life. There should be no shortage of incentive. Realistically, he should’ve never gotten this chance. 

[Jetsplayer21]

33 minutes ago, Ron Rico said:

I know it sounds simple, but it really is this simple: The Jets have to play with a lead. Get a two score lead, early on, and all of this conservative play calling for the rest of the game is a plus, instead of a negative. Red zone FG's? SWEET!  

Because we are always playing catch up, the conservative play calling, playing for a FG instead of a TD pisses us all off.

But the same exact play calling is actually how to win the game when you have the lead. 

Take all the pressure off Zach that he has the entire game because he's always looking at a scoreboard where the Jets are down and time is running out, that is when he chokes (as do alot of QB's). 

In a nutshell, just figure out a way to score a TD in the first quarter. Start the game with a 7-0 lead. Maintain that lead throughout the game, and I think the knocks on the conservative playcalling and the knocks on the QB will dissipate. 

 

The problem is that is way too predictable. Teams would already be expecting the jets to play conservative with Zach Wilson. With a lead even more. Even if we had a monster Oline ( we don’t ) it’s hard to run effectively when the D knows it’s coming. Zach needs to see the wide open receivers downfield, and actually hit them. Shots downfield always open up run game. 

[Ron Rico]

43 minutes ago, Jetsplayer21 said:

The problem is that is way too predictable. Teams would already be expecting the jets to play conservative with Zach Wilson. With a lead even more. Even if we had a monster Oline ( we don’t ) it’s hard to run effectively when the D knows it’s coming. Zach needs to see the wide open receivers downfield, and actually hit them. Shots downfield always open up run game. 

All true, but the bottom line is the Jets need to stop the vanilla garbage playcalling on the opening drive. Let the kid air it out, he has an arm. If he ****s it up, then it's on him and we can stop the nonsense blaming MLF/Hacckett for "holding him back". 

But maybe he doesn't **** it up, maybe he gets a TD on the opening drive. Playing with a lead is the only way we are going to really see who's the albatross on this team, or not. 

[Jet_Engine1]

2 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

The answer for the above is below! 

Here’s how Zach is seeing the end zone inside the RZ. 8 players packed into the end zone. Panic ensues because he doesn’t want to hurt the team with a TO

 

I blame Hackett equally. You have to run rub routes and misdirection plays to give Zach a clean look
 

 

 

Kid need to play mostly out of shotgun, with a ton of Play action roll outs . It should be the absolute fundamental cornerstone of an offense with Wilson's skillset.