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Would you trade for Mike Tomlin?


Jdeet

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6 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I think we received a 1st rounder and then some.  Then again, I think we traded a lot to get BP.

 

https://grantland.com/the-triangle/bill-belichick-new-england-patriots-trade-new-york-jets/

The Trade

Belichick, as you might expect, came at a far cheaper price than Parcells had four years prior. The Patriots sent the 16th overall pick in the upcoming 2000 draft and fourth- and seventh-rounders in 2001 to the Jets for the rights to Belichick, a 2001 fifth-rounder, and a 2002 seventh-rounder. They would each make subsequent trades packaging those picks in separate deals. In the end, the Jets came away with Shaun Ellis, Jamie Henderson, and James Reed; the Patriots picked up Belichick and two players who never suited up for the team, Arther Love and Owen Pochman.

How much did the Jets pay in terms of value? And what did that actually turn into? Well, it depends on how you factor it. I like using Chase Stuart’s expected draft value chart, which uses data from the past to project how players perform during the first five years of their career, producing a value for each potential draft pick.

We can plug in those values, but the problem is that the picks were sent in various places. We’re not concerned about trades down, because the Jets and Patriots aren’t giving up additional assets when trading down, but the draft picks don’t reflect their full value if they’re used to trade up and grab another player. The Patriots traded a late seventh-rounder that Stuart’s chart assigns zero value to anyway, so we can ignore that one, but the Jets used the first-rounder as part of a package to trade up.

The Jets traded the 16th pick and their second-rounder, the 48th selection, to move up to 12 and draft Ellis. (This is about to get pretty abstract, sorry.) The value of the first-round pick the Jets got for Belichick, then, represents the difference in expected value between the 48th pick and the 12th pick, since that’s the currency they used to move up from 48 to 12 and take Ellis. That’s 8.9 points of Expected Approximate Value, which is roughly equivalent to the 57th pick in the draft. In all, this is how the trade looks:

Pick Jets AV Pick Patriots AV
(12-48) Shaun Ellis 8.9 149 Love, Pochman 2.7
101 Jamie Henderson 5.2 234 (traded up) 0
206 James Reed 0.7      
  Total 14.8     2.7
  Difference 12.1      

Those 12.1 points of Approximate Value translates to the 34th overall pick in the draft. In other words, in terms of raw value before actually drafting or developing anybody, the Jets traded Belichick for a high second-round pick. Those were the most cost-effective picks in the draft under the old CBA, but I suspect the Jets would reverse the trade if they could.

The simpler way of looking at the trade is that the Jets traded Belichick and their 2000 second-rounder for Ellis, Reed, and Henderson. Reed and Henderson were reserve defensive backs, with Reed starting 15 games in his final season with the team at safety, while Henderson’s career came to a close after a 2004 motorcycle crash. Ellis was a workmanlike two-way defensive end who made two Pro Bowls during his 11-year career with the Jets before finishing up his career with the Patriots in 2011. He produced 87 AV during those 11 seasons in New York, making him the 68th-most valuable player in football by the metric over that time frame.

Would have been funny if that trade involved sending NE a 2000 6th round pick

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5 hours ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

Yes and no.

Short term, is he better than Bobby Slogans?  1,000% better, yeah.

But long term?  No, I think he's washed.

He knows nothing about coaching offense or QBs either, which handicaps your team in today's NFL.

Stop signing players and hiring dudes who are past their expiration date.

Keep searching and trying until you can find the next great young head coach like the Rams with McVay.

 

bobby slogans lol

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On 12/8/2023 at 2:47 PM, Adoni Beast said:

Right but heres the thing. Without a HOF QB in his prime that he was gifted…he has not been able to figure out the offense at all.

 

which HC can without a QB.?

Daboll did nothing with Jones before he got hurt.

meanwhile the guy were playing tomorrow is a DC/HC with a young 1st time OC who came from SF just like MLF and they got the QB and look like great coaches. 

and Saleh and MLF came from the same place doing the same jobs in both places and they suck.

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On 12/8/2023 at 2:55 PM, Larz said:

Nobody wants to work for woody. That’s why the Jets should hang onto the guys they have.  The next crop of candidates would be bottom of the barrel.  
 

Tomlin would immediately retire if he was informed of this trade lol

this is it right here

If Tomlin came here he would have the power of a Parcells. if he wants Zach cut hes cut no matter what cap hit or how much Woody has to pay him to not be here.

and thats why Woody would never do this, he wants nobody HCs who will do what he wants.

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On 12/8/2023 at 3:09 PM, GreenFish said:

This is why I think he is the best coach of this generation. A lot of these coaches success can be tied to the QB. Take away the QB and they become ordinary. Tomlin has never had a losing season. I cant even understand how that happens.

The Steelers are secretly the best run, most consistent,  best talent-evaluating organization in Football with a set culture in place, an identity on Defense set in stone, and ownership that knows how to hire the right fit at HC, support him perfectly, and stay out of the way regarding on field stuff.

 

Their next HC after Tomlin in 10 years will be just as successful as his predecessors.

 

The Jets are the exact opposite.  

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