Scouts take on Brock Bowers - merged

[Gastineau Lives]

4 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Thats fine they you need to get a 3rd or 4th for Conklin.  If not you dont draft bowers.

Yup, a bottom tier tight end on the last year of his contract should get back a third. I need to hydrate this is too much.

[Claymation]

4 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Thats fine they you need to get a 3rd or 4th for Conklin.  If not you dont draft bowers.

I have no idea what you are trying to say. 

Are you saying, if the Jets draft Bowers, they need to trade Conklin for a 3rd or a 4th?

If so, why? Do you think only 1 TE plays at a given moment?

[RedBeardedSavage]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

 

Good listen but also frustrating. 

“he’s great, we love him, we think he’ll be great… but we don’t know about his raw athletic ability and we know, historically, the most important indicator of success for this particular position is truly elite athletic ability” 

They summed up this entire thread in a short video. 

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

1 hour ago, Matt39 said:

Olsen was actually very fast via stopwatch. Bowers is never going to be Gronk. People thinking that he’s a transcendent player are not being serious. Gronk had like 10.75 hands and was 260. Bowers hand size is slightly below average for a tight end. And without any athletics tests, it’s all eyes only. Gronk could win at the point of attack because he was big and strong and had giant hands. A good safety matching up on Bowers can likely take him out of the game downfield (which is expected).

Totally agree with this.

He's not built to beast at the catch point like Gronk, Kelce, Gonzo and Gates.

Bowers is a nauseating (at this point since its been beat to pulp) but actually interesting case study.

His college metrics like YPRR and YAC suggest he's a slam dunk can't miss type of elite prospect.

The real question is how much of what he does well will translate into dominance at the NFL level?

Antonio Gates could be productive into his late thirties 🤣 because he wasn't dependent so much on speed an quickness as much as his route running and football IQ.  He also had tremendous hands for a TE.

Bowers' highlights remind me a bit of Ruggs.

To be fair, Bowers is the better prospect.

But Henry Ruggs was the 1st WR off the board based off of his college plays taking slants and quick screens to the house for like 80 yards.  That never happened once for him in the NFL, and he's faster than Bowers on his best day.

Aaron Hernandez was deployed in a similar manner I'd expect Bowers to be used, and Hernandez absorbed a lot of punishment on the field playing that way.

Not sure if Bowers is built for that.  He's got a slender frame for a TE.

[slats]

6 minutes ago, Claymation said:

I have no idea what you are trying to say. 

Are you saying, if the Jets draft Bowers, they need to trade Conklin for a 3rd or a 4th?

If so, why? Do you think only 1 TE plays at a given moment?

They’re not getting that kind of capital back, but I get the thinking. Conklin has a $6.1M salary and he’d be pretty redundant with Bowers in the fold. So you trade him for something/anything to clear that off the books and promote Ruckert to TE -largely for blocking purposes- with Bowers in his H-back/big slot role. 
 
Also, I don’t see that as much, if any, better than Conklin at TE and Lazard at big slot. 

[Gastineau Lives]

 

[Claymation]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

They’re not getting that kind of capital back, but I get the thinking. Conklin has a $6.1M salary and he’d be pretty redundant with Bowers in the fold. So you trade him for something/anything to clear that off the books and promote Ruckert to TE -largely for blocking purposes- with Bowers in his H-back/big slot role. 
 
Also, I don’t see that as much, if any, better than Conklin at TE and Lazard at big slot. 

Why would he be redundant? The Jets do use 2 TE and 3 TE sets.

[RedBeardedSavage]

3 hours ago, jvill 51 said:

Fair on Kupp, but on the flip side the Rams also used tracking data to identify Nacua, and his numbers were bad across the board, especially his shuttle and 3 cone which were abysmal. None of this is dispositive, but pretty interesting I think.

Still, I hear you re the lack of testing. But I guess my point is that while we might not have anything quantifiable, NFL teams have access to a lot more (and arguably more relevant) athleticism data. And I'd also push back against the notion a bit that we don't have anything quantifiable. PFF provides player tracking data to teams, and their athleticism metrics (not their subjective grading system) put him as a 99th percentile athlete (I believe the 3 numbers are junior, sophomore, freshman year):

Reel Analytics provides player tracking data to college programs (and maybe NFL? not sure there) and they have him at a 99 athleticism grade, grading out ahead of the average wide receiver in certain metrics while carrying another 40-50 pounds.

 

So there is data, it's just that the inputs aren't widely available to the general public. The teams however have the info. And when I look at the whole picture on Bowers, there is nothing that points to him being anything other than a special athlete other than rank speculation about why he didn't test. I'm comfortable with what's out there to make that assessment absent any real evidence to the contrary. Others may not be without testing data, and I can understand that. But we're not flying completely blind, and the NFL teams that actually have to make the decision aren't really flying blind at all. The smart teams in fact might be flying in clearer skies than they would have been say 15 years ago: with testing data but without player tracking metrics.

Excellent post and insight. I’ll have to chew on this and read some more.

Nacua is an outlier - and helped me after a week 1 pickup to my FF championship title game (I lost  )- but I take the point. Curious what Puka’s grade was for both of these metrics. I’ll try and hunt them down later.

He was also taken in round 5. Projected round 3, but some injury concerns dropped him further if I remember correctly.

Anyways, this was dope. Thanks for sharing and I’ve got some reading ahead of me. Appreciate it, brotha.

[Gastineau Lives]

Can I just take a time out to say HOW FUN IS THIS?? I wish the draft was all year round!

We’re getting new perspectives on athletic testing, nutrition and getting a history lesson all in one shot! 

[Sammybighead]

Perfect article, sums up my feelings exactly. For 30 years, teams have thought the guy they drafting at TE was the exception/unicorn. And for 30 years, they've gotten in wrong. Yet we all think the jets are finally the team that will break the curse...

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, Sammybighead said:

Perfect article, sums up my feelings exactly. For 30 years, teams have thought the guy they drafting at TE was the exception/unicorn. And for 30 years, they've gotten in wrong. Yet we all think the jets are finally the team that will break the curse...

You read this and think if jd believes in this mantra then it’s a top 3 wr or fautanu

[slats]

6 minutes ago, Claymation said:

Why would he be redundant? The Jets do use 2 TE and 3 TE sets.

Because he’s paid to be the primary guy and Bowers would presumably being taking over that role. Someone (or two) would have to go. They used a roster spot all season on Kuntz last year, so they value him. Ruckert isn’t going anywhere. Jets only carried three most of the season, with Yeboah getting promoted from the practice squad after they gave up on Uzomah the last month or so. Conklin and his $6.1M salary would make the most the sense if they believe Kuntz will contribute this year. 

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Exactly.  I just dont see a path to tons of playing time for Bowers unless Conklin is moved for a draft pick.

I think this franchise loves Conklin, likes Ruckert and will give them playing time.

Bowers will have packages lined up out wide and as a big slot but they are just packages.  It will not add up to being on the field a ton.

Conklin is an all around, classic TE.  Bowers strength is he adds a receiving aspect to an offense.  Two different animals.  
Ruckert is an unknown.  For all the talk about how good he’d OD or how much he’s loved, he lasted in the draft and has contributed little to this offense up to now

[Matt39]

2 minutes ago, slats said:

Because he’s paid to be the primary guy and Bowers would presumably being taking over that role. Someone (or two) would have to go. They used a roster spot all season on Kuntz last year, so they value him. Ruckert isn’t going anywhere. Jets only carried three most of the season, with Yeboah getting promoted from the practice squad after they gave up on Uzomah the last month or so. Conklin and his $6.1M salary would make the most the sense if they believe Kuntz will contribute this year. 

I’d assume Ruckert would end up being more Hback/special teams.

[section314]

3 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

I’d assume Ruckert would end up being more Hback/special teams.

Ruckert is a better blocker than our current swing tackles are.😎

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

No idea how this is formulated, but 3 of the 4 metrics cited here have him sub-63rd %

Only one of the 4 looks elite at 91st %

How exactly does this translate to a 99.1 % "IGA" (whatever that means) score?  😂

More specifically, these would indicate he's basically "slightly above average" at creating separation (58th %) and "below average" (49th %) at getting in and out of breaks.

Yet the tweet calls him a "freak athlete" 😂

 

[jvill 51]

6 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

No idea how this is formulated, but 3 of the 4 metrics cited here have him sub-63rd %

Only one of the 4 looks elite at 91st %

How exactly does this translate to a 99.1 % "IGA" (whatever that means) score?  😂

More specifically, these would indicate he's basically "slightly above average" at creating separation (58th %) and "below average" (49th %) at getting in and out of breaks.

Yet the tweet calls him a "freak athlete" 😂

 

That is compared to the average receiver, who weighs in at about 190-200 pounds

[Sammybighead]

20 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

You read this and think if jd believes in this mantra then it’s a top 3 wr or fautanu

You would think so. Invest in premium positions with high value. But I can't deny all the smoke. Furthermore, Bowers is an excellent prospect despite my preferences/thoughts. 

[Claymation]

20 minutes ago, slats said:

Because he’s paid to be the primary guy and Bowers would presumably being taking over that role. Someone (or two) would have to go. They used a roster spot all season on Kuntz last year, so they value him. Ruckert isn’t going anywhere. Jets only carried three most of the season, with Yeboah getting promoted from the practice squad after they gave up on Uzomah the last month or so. Conklin and his $6.1M salary would make the most the sense if they believe Kuntz will contribute this year. 

The Jets are trying to win everything. Saving money and building for the future should be the way to go this year.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

24 minutes ago, Sammybighead said:

Perfect article, sums up my feelings exactly. For 30 years, teams have thought the guy they drafting at TE was the exception/unicorn. And for 30 years, they've gotten in wrong. Yet we all think the jets are finally the team that will break the curse...

 

So essentially with a top 10-15 pick, take the safest prospect so that it's actually worth it. After that, you can start taking a bit more risk. 

 

[Jetkwondo]

30 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Conklin is an all around, classic TE.  Bowers strength is he adds a receiving aspect to an offense.  Two different animals.  
Ruckert is an unknown.  For all the talk about how good he’d OD or how much he’s loved, he lasted in the draft and has contributed little to this offense up to now

 

Bowers would be better then Conklin as a receiver which is fair to say, though Conklin has proved reliable in that regard.

Ruckert was rated the #1 TE prospect in the country coming out of High School and has proven to be a very willing and good blocker for us. His pass catching was an after thought on his stacked WR Team at Ohio State team though he proved more then capable if called upon as these clips show, so I wouldn't sell him short due to limited snaps played.

 

[Gastineau Lives]

33 minutes ago, Sammybighead said:

Perfect article, sums up my feelings exactly. For 30 years, teams have thought the guy they drafting at TE was the exception/unicorn. And for 30 years, they've gotten in wrong. Yet we all think the jets are finally the team that will break the curse...

7. Every offensive lineman will be The Awesome and The Wall Because You Need One In Case Your Tackles Get Injured trap

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

12 minutes ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

So essentially with a top 10-15 pick, take the safest prospect so that it's actually worth it. After that, you can start taking a bit more risk.

Yeah.

Just look at Mekhi Becton.  Joe Douglas ignored the floor and swung for the fences at #11.  The potential loss-of-value / opportunity cost has to be weighed in more heavily with a premium pick.

He passed on CeeDee Lamb, Wirfs, and other legit ballers.

Wirfs even brought the versatility of being able to play Guard.

In round 7, who cares, that is the time you can swing for the fences.  It's probably not going to work out anyway, so you might as well shoot for the moon.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

22 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

That is compared to the average receiver, who weighs in at about 190-200 pounds

Understood.

I actually don't even think it matters what Bowers' 40 time is.  He looks fast on tape.

Just thought it was interesting Bowers refused to run or test athletically.  If he's such a "freak athlete", wouldn't he want to showcase that to improve his draft stock even more?

There is a school of thought that, as long as players are within reasonable thresholds, the combine is pretty irrelevant for WRs.  I tend to agree with this.

AB ran a 4.6 40 but in the NFL he routinely made house calls, running away from dudes after the catch.

Some guys don't play with effort, fitness, stamina, whatever. 

There's a difference between what a guy runs one time in a controlled environment in spandex versus how he will perform late in the 4th Q with pads on and the game on the line.

[slats]

17 minutes ago, Claymation said:

The Jets are trying to win everything. Saving money and building for the future should be the way to go this year.

I don’t think they’ll draft Bowers. I’m just offering my 2¢ on someone else’s trade proposal. 
 
A team trying to win everything shouldn’t be banking on the pin-up hopes of the one true unicorn at the TE position, either. I get that you and a couple other guys here are in love, but falling in love is what gets GMs fired. 

[Augustiniak]

24 minutes ago, slats said:

I don’t think they’ll draft Bowers. I’m just offering my 2¢ on someone else’s trade proposal. 
 
A team trying to win everything shouldn’t be banking on the pin-up hopes of the one true unicorn at the TE position, either. I get that you and a couple other guys here are in love, but falling in love is what gets GMs fired. 

I don’t think they’re taking bowers either.  Also don’t think they would take btj unless they really moved back.

seems like top 3 wr or tackle and then hopefully they get aggressive on day 2 and get someone like Roman wilson.

[Gastineau Lives]

41 minutes ago, slats said:

I don’t think they’ll draft Bowers. I’m just offering my 2¢ on someone else’s trade proposal. 
 
A team trying to win everything shouldn’t be banking on the pin-up hopes of the one true unicorn at the TE position, either. I get that you and a couple other guys here are in love, but falling in love is what gets GMs fired. 

 

16 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I don’t think they’re taking bowers either.  Also don’t think they would take btj unless they really moved back.

seems like top 3 wr or tackle and then hopefully they get aggressive on day 2 and get someone like Roman wilson.

There’s money to be made fellas! You can take all of them and still make out.

[Greenseed4]

3 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

 

So he is very clearly regressing. 

[Jet Nut]

5 hours ago, Matt39 said:

You may have a unicorn in Laporta, but what he did as a rookie like never happens. I think Bowers is a safe pick like Hockenson was (maybe a bit less safe as Iowa is tight end U) 

I get it doesn’t take a draft genius to predict he won’t be the GOAT like Gronk but it’s interesting that we just know he’ll fall short of more realistic expectations when he’s a better prospect that Laporte and Hockenson were coming out of college.  

[Matt39]

2 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

I get it doesn’t take a draft genius to predict he won’t be the GOAT like Gronk but it’s interesting that we just know he’ll fall short of more realistic expectations when he’s a better prospect that Laporte and Hockenson were coming out of college.  

Is he a better prospect than Hockenson? Hockenson went 8th overall. Has he met or exceeded expectations? I’m sure opinions would be mixed. 

[Bobby816]

4 hours ago, Sammybighead said:

Perfect article, sums up my feelings exactly. For 30 years, teams have thought the guy they drafting at TE was the exception/unicorn. And for 30 years, they've gotten in wrong. Yet we all think the jets are finally the team that will break the curse...

As far as I can remember no Te has ever been as proven as Bowers is. If there is let me know. There’s guys who have sh*t up draft boards. But that didn’t have 3 years of incredible tape to back it up. Maybe a year or 2 at best.

 

He in fact got hosed as a Gresham. Not winning the Mackey award. Where if he didn’t get screwed over in that. Surely he would’ve been the only guy to ever win an award like that all 3 years they were in college.

 

Dont think he got screwed over on that award as a freshman.

 

Who do you think should win a guy with 1,121 yards and 1 TD or a guy with 882 yards and 13 TDs?

[slats]

54 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

As far as I can remember no Te has ever been as proven as Bowers is. If there is let me know. There’s guys who have sh*t up draft boards. But that didn’t have 3 years of incredible tape to back it up. Maybe a year or 2 at best.

 

He in fact got hosed as a Gresham. Not winning the Mackey award. Where if he didn’t get screwed over in that. Surely he would’ve been the only guy to ever win an award like that all 3 years they were in college.

 

Dont think he got screwed over on that award as a freshman.

 

Who do you think should win a guy with 1,121 yards and 1 TD or a guy with 882 yards and 13 TDs?

[Jack Straw]

Is he a better prospect than Hockenson? Hockenson went 8th overall. Has he met or exceeded expectations? I’m sure opinions would be mixed. 

Hockenson is a good player and relative to that draft class (which was very bad), he was worth the 8th overall pick. In most years, though, that’s probably not the case.

Regardless, Bowers is a much better prospect.

He’s quicker, faster, more productive, better after after the catch, and more versatile.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

1 hour ago, slats said:

Found a guy who’s a better athlete than Bowers 🤣

Could be a fallback option for the Jets if they miss out on the GOAT at #10 🤣

 

[TuscanyTile2]

6 hours ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

No idea how this is formulated, but 3 of the 4 metrics cited here have him sub-63rd %

Only one of the 4 looks elite at 91st %

How exactly does this translate to a 99.1 % "IGA" (whatever that means) score?  😂

More specifically, these would indicate he's basically "slightly above average" at creating separation (58th %) and "below average" (49th %) at getting in and out of breaks.

Yet the tweet calls him a "freak athlete" 😂

 

Quote

How exactly does this translate to a 99.1 % "IGA" (whatever that means) score?

I think it's a typo.  It was a 99.1% UGA score.