Scouts take on Brock Bowers - merged

[bicketybam]

If we don't take Bowers and he becomes a dynamic TE for another team it will be:

1) We are idiots for passing on this guy! I told you so!

Or

2) Well he would never have been good with us because Hackett/Saleh are terrible.

Book it!!

[#27TheDominator]

2 minutes ago, mrcoops said:

I'm sort of hoping that Bowers goes in the top 9 picks, and takes this decision out of the Jets' hands. I just can't deal with this debate any more.

Personally, I am very torn on Bowers. I see the level of production, and it's impressive, but his relative lack of TE size and his FB/H-Back playing style does concern me.

He could be a unique talent at TE, of the type we have never seen before, or he could suck as a pro.  I'm not sure there's an in-between option.

And, with the Jets being the team potentially making the pick, that worries the hell out of me.

I think there is very much an in between option.  It is an old comp and different position, but I can see him having a Herschel Walker type career.  People think Herschel was a bust, but he is 12th in career all purpose yards.  I think he was like 3rd when he retired.  He is still top 50 in yards from scrimmage and that is spending his best years and 5500 rushing and 1500 receiving yards in the USFL.  The hype was just so great that he never really overcame it in the public perception.  I can see that happening if we take Bowers at 10.

[dbatesman]

2 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

If we don't take Bowers and he becomes a dynamic TE for another team it will be:

1) We are idiots for passing on this guy! I told you so!

Or

2) Well he would never have been good with us because Hackett/Saleh are terrible.

Book it!!

And if we don't take him and he becomes a solid but unspectacular player for another team, there will be half a dozen people here who will spend the next decade posting videos of him catching 5-yard hitches and saying "well well well I guess a TE is a good value after all..."

[RedBeardedSavage]

2 minutes ago, Larz said:

Again, for at least the 3rd time, just because you don’t have access to the information doesn’t mean the NFL teams don’t. The gps chips these guys wear give a lot of analytics data. Not just top speed. 
 

I think it was 1JD where they were discussing centers and someone said tippmann was the highest rated guy according to analytics.  They didn’t say RAS, they said analytics.  It’s a huge part of scouting and it’s something we have zero access too. 
 

The simple reality is we debate these guys with little to no knowledge or access to the information that the teams have. 

I thought we were talking about the unofficial 40 you cited from three years ago, or how top speed in MPH does not seem to accurately represent/or be a stand-in for 40 yard dashes?

But now we're talking about specific GPS data and how we don't have access to it.

I'm aware of that.

And, I imagine, so are the scouts quoted in the OP. And some of them seem to think Brock is hiding from workouts, and openly speculate as to why.

And to the broader point, I'm not saying I know his speed. I agree with you: none of us on this board know. And that's the issue, isn't it? 

The idea that "he's fast enough, I've seen it on tape vs SEC defenders" is the reason I cited Najee Harris earlier here - another player that did zero athletic testing, dominated the SEC, and looks pedestrian/slow AF in the pros. 

[RedBeardedSavage]

17 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Doesn't the GPS information let the teams see how fast he is going at any point during a play?  Teams are not just seeing Bowers hit 21.9 mph and saying okay they are good.  They are seeing his speed from the start of the play through the end.  At least they should be.  We can't see it and therefore can't argue the point like we can with Keon Coleman, but teams should.

I genuinely do not know enough about any of that? 

When it's cited, I don't know what to say. There are some pretty slow players (Danny Dimes and his 4.8 40) clocking some high MPH. So I have no idea what to make of the GPS data?

I do feel comfortable speculating that if Brock ran a 4.8, he's drops pretty far in this draft. 

[Warfish]

Forum Hiccup/Double Post.

[Warfish]

8 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

And if we don't take him and he becomes a solid but unspectacular player for another team, there will be half a dozen people here who will spend the next decade posting videos of him catching 5-yard hitches and saying "well well well I guess a TE is a good value after all..."

That reminds me, did you see that great catch JSN made last season?

[jvill 51]

12 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

It's a good read and thanks for sharing. I understand there's more to it than top speed in MPH, but that's what is being represented as the metric for Bowers' true speed in this thread.

I also know a bit about Kupp and what makes him special;

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/cooper-kupp/32004b55-5053-4597-b958-87408c31956f

That 3 cone is epic, especially @ his pro day. A 3 cone drill of 6.53.

Kupp had at least one quantifiable special athletic trait, his agility, and that translates to route-running or getting separation I guess?

Right now we're just flying blind with Bowers. That's what I find frustrating. There's nothing reliably quantifiable I can point to and say "oh that's it, that's why he was able to do what he did and that's why his game translates."

 

Fair on Kupp, but on the flip side the Rams also used tracking data to identify Nacua, and his numbers were bad across the board, especially his shuttle and 3 cone which were abysmal. None of this is dispositive, but pretty interesting I think.

Still, I hear you re the lack of testing. But I guess my point is that while we might not have anything quantifiable, NFL teams have access to a lot more (and arguably more relevant) athleticism data. And I'd also push back against the notion a bit that we don't have anything quantifiable. PFF provides player tracking data to teams, and their athleticism metrics (not their subjective grading system) put him as a 99th percentile athlete (I believe the 3 numbers are junior, sophomore, freshman year):

Reel Analytics provides player tracking data to college programs (and maybe NFL? not sure there) and they have him at a 99 athleticism grade, grading out ahead of the average wide receiver in certain metrics while carrying another 40-50 pounds.

 

So there is data, it's just that the inputs aren't widely available to the general public. The teams however have the info. And when I look at the whole picture on Bowers, there is nothing that points to him being anything other than a special athlete other than rank speculation about why he didn't test. I'm comfortable with what's out there to make that assessment absent any real evidence to the contrary. Others may not be without testing data, and I can understand that. But we're not flying completely blind, and the NFL teams that actually have to make the decision aren't really flying blind at all. The smart teams in fact might be flying in clearer skies than they would have been say 15 years ago: with testing data but without player tracking metrics.

[Claymation]

1 minute ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Exactly.  He leaped elijah moore who stinks and is a slot reciever.  So no, wilson did not have to leap anything really to get playing time.

Tyler conklin is a very good nfl tight end.

 

Moore led the team in Receiving as a rookie. They also had Crowder. Conklin is average at best.

Let me put it another way, should the Jets not have drafted Hall because they had Michael Carter?

So are you insinuating that the Jets shouldn't draft a WR because they have Williams and Wilson. This logic makes no sense.

If you can upgrade a position, upgrade it. 

 

[slats]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

I've been very impressed with your analysis on the topic of Bowers, with one exception.

You seem to believe in/have faith in Lazard.  I think that is entirely misplaced.  He, as much as Zach Wilson, needs to be gone off this team.  What he did last year was unforgiveable, to quit on the team, to be so uncaring and show such little personal effort.  I could care less if he had decent years with Rodgers, he's a slug, and has to go.  The fact no one in the league has expressed any interest in him, despite us making him available, says a lot IMO.

Oh, I hear you. He sucked last year in an embarrassing fashion. Problem is, he and his $11M guaranteed aren’t going anywhere. He was bad with Zach & Co. playing outside with Corey Davis’ retirement, but I expect a much better performance out of the slot with Rodgers. The good news is that this is essentially a contract year for him. He has no guaranteed money after this season. He’ll be playing for a job in 2025 this year, here or somewhere else. 

[Lith]

41 minutes ago, OMA said:

If you draft Bowers you are automatically paying him top tier $ at a position the league as a whole says is not nearly as valuable as qb,tackle,edge,wr,cb vs drafting a top OL and paying them well below market value.

Drafting anything outside of those positions in the top 10 is grounds for firing.

I have seen this mentioned many times, but it is just not true.  Last season, Darnell Wright was the 10th pick in the draft.  He signed a 4-year $21M contract.   If we pick Bowers at 10, assume his contract will be 4-years $22M-$23M range.  Less than $6M per year.  That would rank him below 20th among TEs - similar to what Mo Alie-Cox, Gerald Everett and Juwan Johnson are getting paid.  And then with the 5th year option and tag being lower for TEs, we could potentially lock him up for 6 years at a favorable contract.

I think the better argument against Bowers is need and opportunity cost. I think we are better set at TE right now than WR or OL, although Conklin's contract is up after this season.  But a vet starting TE will be a lot less $$ to sign than a comparable vet to start at WR or OL.

I am not advocating for Bowers, I would prefer Odunze or OL at 10.  But I don't think he would be a bad pick if that is the direction we went.

[Joe W. Namath]

2 minutes ago, Claymation said:

 

Moore led the team in Receiving as a rookie. They also had Crowder. Conklin is average at best.

Let me put it another way, should the Jets not have drafted Hall because they had Michael Carter?

So are you insinuating that the Jets shouldn't draft a WR because they have Williams and Wilson. This logic makes no sense.

If you can upgrade a position, upgrade it. 

 

Michael Carter isnt a #1 running back.  Again, what are we talking about here?  Mike Williams may not even be ready for the season and is on a 1 year deal

Tyler Conklin is a very good tight end.  If Brock Bowers is drafted, Conklin should be traded or Bowers isnt playing much.

If you think Bowers is going to be all over the filed with Conk and Ruckert on this team, you are not paying attention.

[ARodJetsFan]

3 minutes ago, Lith said:

I think the better argument against Bowers is need and opportunity cost. I think we are better set at TE right now than WR or OL, although Conklin's contract is up after this season.  But a vet starting TE will be a lot less $$ to sign than a comparable vet to start at WR or OL.

I am not advocating for Bowers, I would prefer Odunze or OL at 10.  But I don't think he would be a bad pick if that is the direction we went.

x 2

[Warfish]

6 minutes ago, slats said:

Oh, I hear you. He sucked last year in an embarrassing fashion. Problem is, he and his $11M guaranteed aren’t going anywhere. He was bad with Zach & Co. playing outside with Corey Davis’ retirement, but I expect a much better performance out of the slot with Rodgers. The good news is that this is essentially a contract year for him. He has no guaranteed money after this season. He’ll be playing for a job in 2025 this year, here or somewhere else. 

I do not share your optimism of great improvement just because now he's with Rodgers or playing the #3 role.  As you may recall, I was critical of his signing at the time, and he's done nothing but prove my doubt in him right so far.

I truly, truly hope JD does not see "Lazard and his $11M not going anywhere" as any kind of barrier to drafting a Receiver high if one falls to us.  To miss on an Odzune/MHJ/Rome type prospect because we "had Lazard and he's not going anywhere" would be a horrible act of stupidity IMO.

With that said, I could easily see us being stuck with Lazard leading JD to draft OL at #10 instead, and saving WR for later in the draft.

[slats]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

I do not share your optimism of great improvement just because now he's with Rodgers or playing the #3 role.  As you may recall, I was critical of his signing at the time, and he's done nothing but prove my doubt in him right so far.

I truly, truly hope JD does not see "Lazard and his $11M not going anywhere" as any kind of barrier to drafting a Receiver high if one falls to us.  To miss on an Odzune/MHJ/Rome type prospect because we "had Lazard and he's not going anywhere" would be a horrible act of stupidity IMO.

With that said, I could easily see us being stuck with Lazard leading JD to draft OL at #10 instead, and saving WR for later in the draft.

I think we’re good. Most of the insider stuff has JD favoring one of the three. If that happens, Lazard becomes an expensive bench warmer and probably an occasional healthy scratch. 

[Gastineau Lives]

 

Easy money just sitting there for you, fellas! Thank me later.

[jvill 51]

4 minutes ago, Lith said:

I have seen this mentioned many times, but it is just not true.  Last season, Darnell Wright was the 10th pick in the draft.  He signed a 4-year $21M contract.   If we pick Bowers at 10, assume his contract will be 4-years $22M-$23M range.  Less than $6M per year.  That would rank him below 20th among TEs - similar to what Mo Alie-Cox, Gerald Everett and Juwan Johnson are getting paid.  And then with the 5th year option and tag being lower for TEs, we could potentially lock him up for 6 years at a favorable contract.

I think the better argument against Bowers is need and opportunity cost. I think we are better set at TE right now than WR or OL, although Conklin's contract is up after this season.  But a vet starting TE will be a lot less $$ to sign than a comparable vet to start at WR or OL.

I am not advocating for Bowers, I would prefer Odunze or OL at 10.  But I don't think he would be a bad pick if that is the direction we went.

I don't think the argument is (or should be) so much that you're paying him top tier money off the bat. Rather, it's that if you get say a WR there you're paying him as the 40th-ish highest player at that position. If you hit a home run and he's a top 10 player at WR you're saving yourself $15M+ per year compared to what he'd make on the open market. There's only 3 TEs in the league who make over 15M+ per year in total. There's a big opportunity cost there.

[mrcoops]

30 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I think there is very much an in between option.  It is an old comp and different position, but I can see him having a Herschel Walker type career.  People think Herschel was a bust, but he is 12th in career all purpose yards.  I think he was like 3rd when he retired.  He is still top 50 in yards from scrimmage and that is spending his best years and 5500 rushing and 1500 receiving yards in the USFL.  The hype was just so great that he never really overcame it in the public perception.  I can see that happening if we take Bowers at 10.

Yeah, there is obviously literally an in-between option where Bowers is very solid. But, as the 10th overall pick and a "generational" talent, the narrative would be that he sucks and is a bust - especially if the Jets pick him.  If he's the pick at 10, he needs to be elite or he will always be seen as a blown pick.

[Jet Nut]

15 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

The MPH data is just not super reliable at telling us much? 

Danny Dimes ran 17 mph @ his combine and hit 21.23 MPH in a game.

Jones has always been athletic and mobile for a quarterback but he's not some freakish outlier. 

Justin Fields ran a 4.43 at the combine and, while the rest of his game has shortcomings, nearly everyone agrees he's freakishly fast for a quarterback.

Yet look at this from Justin Fields:

*rest of the article is behind a paywall, so I screencaptured this ^

That's the exact same top speed, in mph, as Danny Dimes on his run. None of us believe they're the same speed, no? 

It would appear that the 40-yard dash is still a valuable, relevant tool and likely a more accurate measure of raw speed than the current MPH data. 

The point is there’s a huge difference between starting a sprint over a short distance, from a standstill and running full speed, all out over a distance 

[bicketybam]

34 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

And if we don't take him and he becomes a solid but unspectacular player for another team, there will be half a dozen people here who will spend the next decade posting videos of him catching 5-yard hitches and saying "well well well I guess a TE is a good value after all..."

I don't think anyone is going to bark about him if he puts up pedestrian numbers. But you will have a ton of people headed to the ER with broken arms from feverishly patting themselves on the back. I told you so! I told you so! 😅

[Jetkwondo]

33 minutes ago, slats said:

In theory but, again, not in practice. There aren’t a lot of examples of him catching the ball thru a defender. I like Lazard’s 7” advantage better in the slot, too. 

But even better is Malik Nabers as our slot... or X or Y reciever...he is tough like a RB, body wise, and can do it all. If Nabers drops go get him... 

I would feel so much better with Nabers having to step up should Wilson get injured then having to expect the same from Bowers.  If Conklin goes down we already have Ruckert to step up....

[T0mShane]

 

[Lith]

11 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

I don't think the argument is (or should be) so much that you're paying him top tier money off the bat. Rather, it's that if you get say a WR there you're paying him as the 40th-ish highest player at that position. If you hit a home run and he's a top 10 player at WR you're saving yourself $15M+ per year compared to what he'd make on the open market. There's only 3 TEs in the league who make over 15M+ per year in total. There's a big opportunity cost there.

Agreed, which is pretty much the point I made in the second paragraph.  The issue is not that he would be paid like a top-tier TE, it is the opportunity cost.  But if you think Bowers is the best player on the board when you are picking, how much of a lesser (albeit still good) prospect do you willingly take because of positional value.

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, Lith said:

Agreed, which is pretty much the point I made in the second paragraph.  The issue is not that he would be paid like a top-tier TE, it is the opportunity cost.  But if you think Bowers is the best player on the board when you are picking, how much of a lesser (albeit still good) prospect do you willingly take because of positional value.

Is a tackle in the first with positional versatility, and a wr late 2nd/early 3rd going to be a better short or long term thing for the jets than bowers and maybe a developmental tackle on day 2.  

[Lith]

9 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Is a tackle in the first with positional versatility, and a wr late 2nd/early 3rd going to be a better short or long term thing for the jets than bowers and maybe a developmental tackle on day 2.  

Not sure how I became the defender of Brock Bowers in this thread when I have repeatedly said that I would prefer WR or OT in the first -- maybe my avatar has something to do with it.

I like Bowers the player.  I do not think he would be a bad pick, but my first choice is Odunze if he makes it to 10 and solve for OL on day 2.  Or if Odunze is gone, either trade back or pivot to OL at 10 and solve for WR on day 2.

[Augustiniak]

8 minutes ago, Lith said:

Not sure how I became the defender of Brock Bowers in this thread when I have repeatedly said that I would prefer WR or OT in the first -- maybe my avatar has something to do with it.

I like Bowers the player.  I do not think he would be a bad pick, but my first choice is Odunze if he makes it to 10 and solve for OL on day 2.  Or if Odunze is gone, either trade back or pivot to OL at 10 and solve for WR on day 2.

I like those top 3 wrs as well.  I just think with no 2nd round pick the jets will be looking at tackles who may not be able to help this year if at all.  The best way to address 2 key needs seems to be trading back, getting another day 2 pick, taking an OL and then dipping into that nice deep wr class on day 2.  What i fear for the jets is they take bowers (who i like, he looks great on film) and they then may not even take an OL in round 3, they could go defense.  So really then the jets would be reliant on two very old tackles protecting the oldest qb in the nfl and that’s our best win now strategy.  And there would be no viable backup tackle plan except to maybe sign another old oft injured tackle.  It’s easy to envision this whole thing imploding, a regime change and then the new gm comes in and the team still needs tackles and a qb.  

[Claymation]

40 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Michael Carter isnt a #1 running back.  Again, what are we talking about here?  Mike Williams may not even be ready for the season and is on a 1 year deal

Tyler Conklin is a very good tight end.  If Brock Bowers is drafted, Conklin should be traded or Bowers isnt playing much.

If you think Bowers is going to be all over the filed with Conk and Ruckert on this team, you are not paying attention.

Conklin had how many TDs last year. Very good my butt. I'll just quote myself because 

1 minute ago, Claymation said:

mediocrity doesn't win games let alone championships.

The love affair Jets fans have with average players in mind numbing.

 

[Lith]

18 hours ago, derp said:

I have seen @Lith that he thinks the Georgia offense was more impacted by McConkey’s absences than Bowers’, for whatever that’s worth.

Yup.  Part of that may be the depth we had at TE this year, but I felt that our offense struggled a lot more to move the ball consistently when McConkey was off the field and/or playing through injury than Bowers.  On the other hand, Ladd struggled so much to get and stay on the field this season that it is a red flag.  Just my observations from watching every Georgia game this season, but I think McConkey would be in the discussion in the top 15 if not for the injury history.  Great route runner, creates separation, great hands, can play inside and outside. 

But the injury history is a red flag for sure.

[jvill 51]

8 minutes ago, Lith said:

Agreed, which is pretty much the point I made in the second paragraph.  The issue is not that he would be paid like a top-tier TE, it is the opportunity cost.  But if you think Bowers is the best player on the board when you are picking, how much of a lesser (albeit still good) prospect do you willingly take because of positional value.

Yup, and it’s a hard question for me to answer if all the three top receivers are off the board. Admittedly I kind of stopped digging into the OT class once we brought in Tyron Smith and Moses, but I don’t think I’d put any of those guys beyond Alt and maybe Fashanu all that close to Bowers in terms of confidence that they’ll pan out while playing tackle specifically. 
 

Honestly, I think most people clamoring for a tackle are thinking about it all wrong and want the tackle for injury depth. Maybe Fashanu can step in right away in pass pro but I don’t trust most of these guys to be ready to protect Rodgers blindside as a rookie. If I’m taking a tackle it’s with the primary goal of developing them to take over in year 2. I’d still want to sign a vet swing tackle (Bakhtiari?) as my primary spot starter in case Smith or Moses go down. And if that’s the case I think I would prefer to trade down and take someone like Mims instead of taking anyone other than a WR or Bowers at 10.

[Joe W. Namath]

6 minutes ago, Claymation said:

Conklin had how many TDs last year. Very good my butt. I'll just quote myself because 

 

Yeah because of all the great qbs we had throwing tds last year. Garrett Wilson had 3 tds.  Is he mediocre too?

[derp]

6 minutes ago, Lith said:

Yup.  Part of that may be the depth we had at TE this year, but I felt that our offense struggled a lot more to move the ball consistently when McConkey was off the field and/or playing through injury than Bowers.  On the other hand, Ladd struggled so much to get and stay on the field this season that it is a red flag.  Just my observations from watching every Georgia game this season, but I think McConkey would be in the discussion in the top 15 if not for the injury history.  Great route runner, creates separation, great hands, can play inside and outside. 

But the injury history is a red flag for sure.

It’s almost a completely opposite physical profile but there’s some shades of Metcalf having limited production due to injuries and a question in the physical profile but a clear role they can be very good at if they can stay healthy.

[Joe W. Namath]

Brock Bowers will be a very good player in this league.  I have no problem if we draft him.

But Brock bowers will not be getting a ton of playing time with Conklin and Ruckert on the roster.

If you have been a jet fan for any amount of time, you know this.

[Bungaman]

38 minutes ago, mrcoops said:

Yeah, there is obviously literally an in-between option where Bowers is very solid. But, as the 10th overall pick and a "generational" talent, the narrative would be that he sucks and is a bust - especially if the Jets pick him.  If he's the pick at 10, he needs to be elite or he will always be seen as a blown pick.

I think part of the mentality is that fans of every team want their team to pick a "generational" talent every year - and that doesn't happen. You should get two eventual starters, but all pros are harder to come by.

Has everyone already given up on Rucker? And Kuntz? Tight ends sometimes take a year or two to marinate.

If Bowers was picked, I wouldn't be too pissed off if there's no WR on the block, and backup OL can wait until a later round or mid summer cuts from other teams. Having Bowers and Rucker start a year or two down the line would seem pretty attractive, having two tight ends on the field at the same time who can block and be mid field threats might be a good thing - "where offense is going "... or something like that.  

[Greenseed4]

Bowers would be an excellent pick if his position was changed to big-Slot; adding him would make for an incredibly well-balanced offense:    

    (Really Well Balanced - Run/Pass)  
G Wilson - Z
M Williams - X
B Bowers - Y
B Hall - RB/Flats

———  
Alternatively, if we added one of the top receivers we’re looking at a completely different dynamic. Nabers would add breakaway YAC but bring less to help the run game.  However, a key injury to one of our top two is less devastating because of his inside outside versatility.

     (Explosive - Pass YAC)
G Wilson - Z/Y
M Williams - X
M Nabers - Y/Z
B Hall - RB/Flats

————
Adding Odunze likely moves Wilson inside where his agility and route running take advantage of the free release.  This raises durability questions.  Can GW survive going across the middle for 17 games? Odunze doesn’t run away from defenders, we’d have a basketball team offense loaded with back shoulder high pointers.

    (Pass Centric - Possession) 
R Odunze - Z 
M Williams - X
G Wilson- Y
B Hall - RB/Flats

————

They’re all excellent upgrades from what we had last year, but in this context it’s easier to embrace the idea of a “TE at 10”

[Claymation]

11 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Yeah because of all the great qbs we had throwing tds last year. Garrett Wilson had 3 tds.  Is he mediocre too?

No, he isn't but Conklin has 7 TDs in his illustrious career. Wilson has that in 2 years.

Wilson has over 2100 yards in 2 years, Conklin has under 2100 yards for his 6 year career. 

Conklin had Cousins throwing the ball to him when he was in Minnesota.