Scouts take on Brock Bowers - merged

[#27TheDominator]

13 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

The MPH data is just not super reliable at telling us much? 

Danny Dimes ran 17 mph @ his combine and hit 21.23 MPH in a game.

Jones has always been athletic and mobile for a quarterback but he's not some freakish outlier. 

Justin Fields ran a 4.43 at the combine and, while the rest of his game has shortcomings, nearly everyone agrees he's freakishly fast for a quarterback.

Yet look at this from Justin Fields:

*rest of the article is behind a paywall, so I screencaptured this ^

That's the exact same top speed, in mph, as Danny Dimes on his run. None of us believe they're the same speed, no? 

It would appear that the 40-yard dash is still a valuable, relevant tool and likely a more accurate measure of raw speed than the current MPH data. 

The 40 is all acceleration.  Top speed and acceleration are not the same thing.  Some guys have higher top end, but take longer to get there.  I don't think it is against any law of physics that Fields would have a way better 40, but not necessarily hit a higher top end.  Dimes was running on an open field and fast enough that he fell down.  These other plays are plays.  Fields was a keeper around the end where he had to worry about LBs that eventually strung him out of bounds.  It's certainly likely he can hit a higher mph. 

[slats]

9 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Ok so 8 lbs instead of fifteen. If he put on fifteen he’d be Kittle sized now and a little better than laporta sized but not Gronk sized but way bigger than Kyle Pitts sized 

Also, Michael Carter II would shut him down in the big slot role, but I noticed you didn’t want to talk about that. 

[OMA]

If you draft Bowers you are automatically paying him top tier $ at a position the league as a whole says is not nearly as valuable as qb,tackle,edge,wr,cb vs drafting a top OL and paying them well below market value.

Drafting anything outside of those positions in the top 10 is grounds for firing.

[Gastineau Lives]

15 minutes ago, slats said:

Also, Michael Carter II would shut him down in the big slot role, but I noticed you didn’t want to talk about that. 

Would he? Bowers would take a three yard pass (since that’s all he can do according to you) and they’d be picking parts of Carter out of the turf. 
 

You don’t actually think a guy 5 inches smaller and 56 lbs lighter is covering him one on one, do you?

[Gastineau Lives]

1 minute ago, OMA said:

If you draft Bowers you are automatically paying him top tier $ at a position the league as a whole says is not nearly as valuable as qb,tackle,edge,wr,cb vs drafting a top OL and paying them well below market value.

Drafting anything outside of those positions in the top 10 is grounds for firing.

And yet three of the four finalists last year had elite tight ends, so firing is a bit of a stretch.

[Warfish]

I see we may have reached peak hyperbole on the topic of Bowers all-time greatness at this point.

Thank god the draft is only a week away.

[Gastineau Lives]

3 minutes ago, OMA said:

If you draft Bowers you are automatically paying him top tier $ at a position the league as a whole says is not nearly as valuable as qb,tackle,edge,wr,cb vs drafting a top OL and paying them well below market value.

Drafting anything outside of those positions in the top 10 is grounds for firing.

Can you crunch the numbers and tell me how much the savings is? I’m stupid and need actual figures.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

13 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

With Conklin and Ruckert in front of him, I dont see Bowers catching more then 30 balls year 1.

When have the Jets ever played a rookie much when thye have a solid vet in front of them.

If Bowers is the pick, trade Conklin.

Garrett Wilson

[Jetkwondo]

11 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

From the OP in this thread.

This is, admittedly, where things get dicey. Because the reports are conflicting. At first, on the day, it was reported he did not run a 40. Then a few days later it was reported he did and it was 4.53. Now, in this article, they're saying he didn't. 

I don't know what to make of all that, but I think it's wise to take that time with a grain of salt considering the circumstances. 

Absolutely, I agree....was it injury causing him not to run, do drills or just his advisors saying let your college production represent who you are. Even his 4.53 which was done in his senior year of high school by questionable, not known, hand held? timing that probably doesn't measure up to precise combine testing.

Also from this, what I see as healthy, wise  discussion I've learned that other measures as in Dallas Clark's case showed his rare trait in the 20 yard shuffle which gave him an advantage over defenders that most TE's didn't possess which was valuable in knowing to weigh his projected probable success in the NFL. 

The big question is will his worth, which I have little doubt in if used correctly to his strength's, will be worth the 10th pick. We shall see...

 

[Pac]

11 minutes ago, slats said:

Also, Michael Carter II would shut him down in the big slot role, but I noticed you didn’t want to talk about that. 

 

4 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Would he? Bowers would take a three yard pass (since that’s all he can do according to you) and they’d be picking parts of Carter out of the turf. 

Yeah count me in on Bowers.  I'd like more of this. 

[RedBeardedSavage]

7 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

The 40 is all acceleration.  Top speed and acceleration are not the same thing.  Some guys have higher top end, but take longer to get there.  I don't think it is against any law of physics that Fields would have a way better 40, but not necessarily hit a higher top end.  Dimes was running on an open field and fast enough that he fell down.  These other plays are plays.  Fields was a keeper around the end where he had to worry about LBs that eventually strung him out of bounds.  It's certainly likely he can hit a higher mph. 

The speed/acceleration point is fair and I like the distinction - but wouldn't that mean we shouldn't equate/make interchangeable top MPH with a combine 40 and how it translates to Sunday? 

More to the point, we can't wave away Brock's lack of 40 by saying "well this was his top speed in MPH, so we know he's fast enough."

[Jack Straw]

2 hours ago, Barton said:

What’s Brock’s speed?? We don’t even know. 100% he is hiding from the 40 yard/other drills. 

I'm not being snarky, but use your eyes. Tim Tebow was a slug on tape and ran a 4.71. He confirmed what every one already knew about him. Bowers is clearly far more explosive and has much more bend -- watch him getting in and out of his breaks. He's clearly a 4.5 - 4.6 athlete.

If Vegas was running odds on his 40 time, I'd venture to say that the over/under would be 4.53 1/2. I wouldn't place money on that line either way, but he's somewhere pretty close to that.

Bowers running a 4.55 doesn't help himself in the pre-draft process, so why would he do it? He'd have to run a sub 4.5 to get GMs really excited and I'm not sure that he'd be able to consistently do that. 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Can't wait to hear the excitement turn into angst and chaos when we draft Bowers and then he starts camp on the PUP list. 

[Claymation]

12 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Haha, well then I can admit this is where I'm a total hypocrite because I care less about MHJ's lack of testing.

As @derp pointed out in this thread with the 18+% double-teamed rate in college - which was the highest ever recorded by whomever recorded it (I believe it was the reception-perception guys) and, if I remember correctly, something like double what the next closest receiver had this past year in CFB, combined with his prototypical size (unlike Brock) and being the son of a HOF who played the same position, I'm just not particularly worried.

I'm aware of my own hypocrisy here, but... in my defense, it's not like 48% of his receptions were behind the LOS (like Brock), he's not undersized (like Brock), he didn't rely on YAC from screens and swings (one of the big reasons I'd like to see the athletic testing here - is Brock explosive, agile, strong enough to do that on an NFL level?) and while WR has many, many busts in the first round we can point to - before Sam Laporta (2nd rounder) - I don't think I can point to a single TE taken in round 1 that truly lived-up to the hype since I don't remember when. TJ Hock is the closest to it, but I doubt the Lions (or now Vikings) would take him 9 overall again in a redraft.

His 1st game was the Rose Bowl when Olave and Wilson declared for the draft, he caught 3 TDs. He is beyond special.

[slats]

20 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Would he? Bowers would take a three yard pass (since that’s all he can do according to you) and they’d be picking parts of Carter out of the turf. 

That’s not his game. He did nothing in the 0-9 range. 48% behind the LOS, almost all of the rest 10+ yards downfield. If he’s not capable of playing the traditional TE position, all the “matchup nightmare” scenarios go right out the window. He’s absolutely a problem for the LBs and safeties who traditionally cover traditional TEs, but in a 12 personnel set I’d assume it would be the in line TE getting the LB and the big slot getting teams’ slot CB. Bowers isn’t overpowering, what he is is really mobile for his size. Every slot CB, however, will be able to keep up with him and swat passes away. If you’ve ever looked at YouTube videos of him that aren’t called a highlight reel, you’ll see defenders slapping the ball away on most of the few contested passes that go in his direction. 

[slats]

8 minutes ago, Pac said:

 

Yeah count me in on Bowers.  I'd like more of this. 

Literal kiss of death

[Claymation]

The best comp I can come up with for Bowers is Jeremy Shockey. He's faster than Jeremy, but both are offense 1st TE. Jeremy is taller, but 250.

[Claymation]

9 minutes ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

Can't wait to hear the excitement turn into angst and chaos when we draft Bowers and then he starts camp on the PUP list. 

You must be a real joy at family gatherings.

[Joe W. Namath]

15 minutes ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

Garrett Wilson

What solid veteran player was in front of garrett wilson?

[#27TheDominator]

2 minutes ago, Claymation said:

The best comp I can come up with for Bowers is Jeremy Shockey. He's faster than Jeremy, but both are offense 1st TE. Jeremy is taller, but 250.

I never heard anybody call Bowers a douche.

[Alka]

On 4/17/2024 at 9:40 AM, UntouchableCrew said:

Agree with the scouting report. I continue to think he'd be insane to take at 10 and while he may end up being a very good player I doubt he would be for the Jets who would almost certainly not use him correctly.

Go for a stud OT prospect or a WR -- even if you're "reaching" for a Brian Thomas Jr. type bet on freakish upside at a game changing position, not an H-back who was productive on the most talented team in college football.

I agree with you 100%, and have been saying this in other threads and posts.  Interesting that if Brock is such a wonderful receiver and should not be looked upon as a tight end, then why does every single mock draft have the 3 top wide receivers gone before Brock Bowers?  Doesn't anyone think that Bowers is better than any of the top 3?  Apparently not!

While I agree that it would be insane to pick Bowers at #10, I have been conflicted if Odunze, or Nabors or Harrison is there at #10, what we should do?  Do we pick a top left tackle, or go for the elite wide receiver?  Personally, I wold not take Brian Thomas at #10, and would go for the O tackle that was highest on our board, if the other 3 receivers are gone.  

The Jets really do need both positions to be filled this year.

[Gastineau Lives]

11 minutes ago, slats said:

That’s not his game. He did nothing in the 0-9 range. 48% behind the LOS, almost all of the rest 10+ yards downfield. If he’s not capable of playing the traditional TE position, all the “matchup nightmare” scenarios go right out the window. He’s absolutely a problem for the LBs and safeties who traditionally cover traditional TEs, but in a 12 personnel set I’d assume it would be the in line TE getting the LB and the big slot getting teams’ slot CB. Bowers isn’t overpowering, what he is is really mobile for his size. Every slot CB, however, will be able to keep up with him and swat passes away. If you’ve ever looked at YouTube videos of him that aren’t called a highlight reel, you’ll see defenders slapping the ball away on the most of the few contested passes that go in his direction. 

I’ve seen every target and carry from each of his seasons in cfb a few times each because I’m a nut job who wants to be divorced lol

Hes 5 inches taller and 56 lbs heavier than MC II the only thing getting swatted are the flies off of Carters corpse.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

3 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

What solid veteran player was in front of garrett wilson?

Corey Davis? Elijah Moore in his 2nd year. 

These are all comparable to saying Tyler Conklin is in front of Bowers.

[derp]

13 minutes ago, slats said:

That’s not his game. He did nothing in the 0-9 range. 48% behind the LOS, almost all of the rest 10+ yards downfield. If he’s not capable of playing the traditional TE position, all the “matchup nightmare” scenarios go right out the window. He’s absolutely a problem for the LBs and safeties who traditionally cover traditional TEs, but in a 12 personnel set I’d assume it would be the in line TE getting the LB and the big slot getting teams’ slot CB. Bowers isn’t overpowering, what he is is really mobile for his size. Every slot CB, however, will be able to keep up with him and swat passes away. If you’ve ever looked at YouTube videos of him that aren’t called a highlight reel, you’ll see defenders slapping the ball away on most of the few contested passes that go in his direction. 

This is pretty much the problem that the Bills ran into with Kincaid. I think the theoretical appeal of Bowers is partially based on the idea that he is effectively a big wide receiver - people talk about all of the mismatches - but as you point out I don't think that's consistent with how he was used. And I don't think he has an extensive track record of catching the ball in traffic either. 

[#27TheDominator]

15 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

The speed/acceleration point is fair and I like the distinction - but wouldn't that mean we shouldn't equate/make interchangeable top MPH with a combine 40 and how it translates to Sunday? 

More to the point, we can't wave away Brock's lack of 40 by saying "well this was his top speed in MPH, so we know he's fast enough."

Doesn't the GPS information let the teams see how fast he is going at any point during a play?  Teams are not just seeing Bowers hit 21.9 mph and saying okay they are good.  They are seeing his speed from the start of the play through the end.  At least they should be.  We can't see it and therefore can't argue the point like we can with Keon Coleman, but teams should.

[Claymation]

4 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

What solid veteran player was in front of garrett wilson?

Davis and Moore, and your boy "Free Denzel". lol

Conklin is average at best.

[mrcoops]

I'm sort of hoping that Bowers goes in the top 9 picks, and takes this decision out of the Jets' hands. I just can't deal with this debate any more.

Personally, I am very torn on Bowers. I see the level of production, and it's impressive, but his relative lack of TE size and his FB/H-Back playing style does concern me.

He could be a unique talent at TE, of the type we have never seen before, or he could suck as a pro.  I'm not sure there's an in-between option.

And, with the Jets being the team potentially making the pick, that worries the hell out of me.

[Pac]

9 minutes ago, slats said:

Literal kiss of death

Jokes aside I do see the benefits of a playmaking TE who can be used in various capacities. 

@Untouchablehas made a compelling case the last month as well.

I'd prefer one of top 3 WRs but if they're gone, and Alt is gone, take Bowers and dramatically improve the offense. Wilson, Williams, Breece, and Bowers sounds pretty friggin difficult to contain. 

[Tranquilo]

Did we draft Bowers yet

 

[#27TheDominator]

4 minutes ago, Alka said:

I agree with you 100%, and have been saying this in other threads and posts.  Interesting that if Brock is such a wonderful receiver and should not be looked upon as a tight end, then why does every single mock draft have the 3 top wide receivers gone before Brock Bowers?  Doesn't anyone think that Bowers is better than any of the top 3?  Apparently not!

While I agree that it would be insane to pick Bowers at #10, I have been conflicted if Odunze, or Nabors or Harrison is there at #10, what we should do?  Do we pick a top left tackle, or go for the elite wide receiver?  Personally, I wold not take Brian Thomas at #10, and would go for the O tackle that was highest on our board, if the other 3 receivers are gone.  

The Jets really do need both positions to be filled this year.

These top 3 receivers are all VERY highly rated.  Going by what we have read the actual question is if one of them falls AND Alt is still there who do you take.  I think those are our top 4 choices and they will all be gone.  Bowers vs. Thomas is where I start leaning towards Bowers.

[Larz]

38 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Larz, here's more from the OP here about his speed/lack of testing. 

We're at that point where people can just believe what they want because there is no definitive, recent test any of us can point to and say "that's what he is". You're citing a test from three years ago that was heard about second-hand. 

For all the 'mierda' the combine takes, it's a single event, done two months before the draft, broadcast on national tv and leaves no ambiguity. 

Just for context, because I brought this player up earlier in this thread for comparison:

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/when-was-najee-harris-drafted-40-time-combine-performance/

These unofficial, 'rumored' times are to be taken with a massive grain of salt. 

Again, for at least the 3rd time, just because you don’t have access to the information doesn’t mean the NFL teams don’t. The gps chips these guys wear give a lot of analytics data. Not just top speed. 
 

I think it was 1JD where they were discussing centers and someone said tippmann was the highest rated guy according to analytics.  They didn’t say RAS, they said analytics.  It’s a huge part of scouting and it’s something we have zero access too. 
 

The simple reality is we debate these guys with little to no knowledge or access to the information that the teams have. 

[Alka]

1 minute ago, #27TheDominator said:

Bowers vs. Thomas is where I start leaning towards Bowers.

For me, if it's Bowers, Thomas or one of the top rated O tackles, I take the tackle.  But that's just me.

[slats]

8 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Hes 5 inches taller and 56 lbs heavier than MC II the only thing getting swatted are the flies off of Carters corpse.

In theory but, again, not in practice. There aren’t a lot of examples of him catching the ball thru a defender. I like Lazard’s 7” advantage better in the slot, too. 

[Joe W. Namath]

7 minutes ago, Claymation said:

Davis and Moore, and your boy "Free Denzel". lol

Conklin is average at best.

Exactly.  He leaped elijah moore who stinks and is a slot reciever.  So no, wilson did not have to leap anything really to get playing time.

Tyler conklin is a very good nfl tight end.

[Gastineau Lives]

7 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

Did we draft Bowers yet

 

Yes twenty minutes ago. Longest orgasm of my life but I’ve adapted enough to type this