Scouts take on Brock Bowers - merged

[TuscanyTile2]

6 hours ago, slats said:

I don’t think they’ll draft Bowers. I’m just offering my 2¢ on someone else’s trade proposal. 
 
A team trying to win everything shouldn’t be banking on the pin-up hopes of the one true unicorn at the TE position, either. I get that you and a couple other guys here are in love, but falling in love is what gets GMs fired. 

Agreed.  I don't think they will either.  I still think it's going to be a trade down and an OL.  But I can't wait to see who we end up taking.

[Jack Straw]

I'm sort of hoping that Bowers goes in the top 9 picks, and takes this decision out of the Jets' hands. I just can't deal with this debate any more.
Personally, I am very torn on Bowers. I see the level of production, and it's impressive, but his relative lack of TE size and his FB/H-Back playing style does concern me.
He could be a unique talent at TE, of the type we have never seen before, or he could suck as a pro.  I'm not sure there's an in-between option.
And, with the Jets being the team potentially making the pick, that worries the hell out of me.

Bowers has the highest floor of anyone in this draft.

He is effectively bust-proof, barring injury.


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[Jetkwondo]

One way or another,

 

We're going to be talking about Brock Bowers for the next 5 years at the very least....!

[Sammybighead]

13 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

With Conklin and Ruckert in front of him, I dont see Bowers catching more then 30 balls year 1.

When have the Jets ever played a rookie much when thye have a solid vet in front of them.

If Bowers is the pick, trade Conklin.

If he's the pick, he needs to be the focal point of the offense. Min 70+ catches. Put breece, ruckert, Conklin aside, all those screens/dump offs must go to Bowers. 

You 100% must trust Hackett to run a good chunk of the offense through a rookie TE.

This is where we at.

[Joe W. Namath]

4 minutes ago, Sammybighead said:

If he's the pick, he needs to be the focal point of the offense. Min 70+ catches. Put breece, ruckert, Conklin aside, all those screens/dump offs must go to Bowers. 

You 100% must trust Hackett to run a good chunk of the offense through a rookie TE.

This is where we at.

I agree.  And that will never happen which is why I think Bowers is a wasted pick year 1 unless you trade Conklin for a 3rd or 4th rounder.

[mrcoops]

8 hours ago, Jack Straw said:

 

Bowers has the highest floor of anyone in this draft.

He is effectively bust-proof, barring injury.


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Bust-proof is a bold claim, considering the past history of 1st round TEs.

Elite talents at TE are very rare in the first round, and turn out to be disappointing more often than not.

Bowers is an exciting prospect, but he has extremely high expectations to meet if he goes top 10.

[slats]

10 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Agreed.  I don't think they will either.  I still think it's going to be a trade down and an OL.  But I can't wait to see who we end up taking.

I think if one of Nabors/Odunze is there, he’ll take him. He has more of a history of being willing to trade up and did so with success with JJ and Breece, and could move up a couple spots to take one of those guys.

If the 3 WRs are gone, he’ll be looking at Bryan Thomas, every non-Alt OT, and maybe Bowers likely thinking that none of them are worth the 10th pick. Having tried and failed to trade down last year, I would expect him to have more preliminary talks about potential trade downs before the draft. The three picks behind him all looking at QBs being easy moves, but he might be willing to drop enough to grab a second rounder, too. I expect he’ll have a few contingencies. 

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, slats said:

I think if one of Nabors/Odunze is there, he’ll take him. He has more of a history of being willing to trade up and did so with success with JJ and Breece, and could move up a couple spots to take one of those guys.

If the 3 WRs are gone, he’ll be looking at Bryan Thomas, every non-Alt OT, and maybe Bowers likely thinking that none of them are worth the 10th pick. Having tried and failed to trade down last year, I would expect him to have more preliminary talks about potential trade downs before the draft. The three picks behind him all looking at QBs being easy moves, but he might be willing to drop enough to grab a second rounder, too. I expect he’ll have a few contingencies. 

Even if he slides back a few spots and gets an extra 3rd, the jets are probably still getting the tackle they want at that point anyway.  

[Bobby816]

3 minutes ago, slats said:

I think if one of Nabors/Odunze is there, he’ll take him. He has more of a history of being willing to trade up and did so with success with JJ and Breece, and could move up a couple spots to take one of those guys.

If the 3 WRs are gone, he’ll be looking at Bryan Thomas, every non-Alt OT, and maybe Bowers likely thinking that none of them are worth the 10th pick. Having tried and failed to trade down last year, I would expect him to have more preliminary talks about potential trade downs before the draft. The three picks behind him all looking at QBs being easy moves, but he might be willing to drop enough to grab a second rounder, too. I expect he’ll have a few contingencies. 

I also wouldn't put it past us to trade back and throw our 3rd in the trade to get that 2nd. Likely guaranteeing us a weapon and an OL that have a lot of talent.

[Gastineau Lives]

11 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Agreed.  I don't think they will either.  I still think it's going to be a trade down and an OL.  

There’s money to be made, sfaccim. Take your favorite four!

[slats]

34 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

There’s money to be made, sfaccim. Take your favorite four!

I’ll laugh like hell if I’m wrong and root like hell for the kid to be everything you believe he is if that happens, but here are a few reasons I don’t think JD will take Bowers…

Whether he’s a TE, H-back, or slot WR, the positional value isn’t even first round grade let alone top ten grade. JD loves value. 
 
He’s undersized. He gets compared to Kittle (6’4”-250) and Kelce (6’5”-250), but he’s closer in size to Jusczcyk (6’2”-235). There just aren’t a lot of comps for guys his size having a ton of success at the NFL level. 
 
His game is speed and agility, but he refused to do any testing to confirm those abilities.  This is a red flag as strong testing could’ve moved him ahead of a WR or two much like it did with Pitts. There was every reason to show off these skills, and not doing so could easily be perceived as hiding. 

He suffered thru a lingering hamstring issue into April. He’s big for a speed guy, and big/fast guys get hamstring issues. Jelani Woods, a 10.0 RAS score TE, just missed all of last season with hamstring issues. This could be especially concerning if the hamstring problems are related to his attempt to bulk up. 
 
In total, the risk is greater than the potential reward, which is a GOAT-like TE who (generously) might give you 1200 yards and 10 TDs a year at his peak. 
 
But I’m not a betting guy, so I’ll just leave this here for someone to bump in the future, lol. 

[Scotty Wooty Doo Doo]

10 hours ago, Jack Straw said:

 

Bowers has the highest floor of anyone in this draft.

He is effectively bust-proof, barring injury.


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Bust-proof?    Then you put barring injury , guess what ?,, He's injured now .   Hamstring injuries are tough .

[Jet Nut]

14 hours ago, Matt39 said:

Is he a better prospect than Hockenson? Hockenson went 8th overall. Has he met or exceeded expectations? I’m sure opinions would be mixed. 

According to everything I’ve read, yes.  

[Claymation]

11 hours ago, Jetkwondo said:

One way or another,

 

We're going to be talking about Brock Bowers for the next 5 years at the very least....!

He's the new Zach.

[UntouchableCrew]

11 hours ago, Jack Straw said:

 

Bowers has the highest floor of anyone in this draft.

He is effectively bust-proof, barring injury.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

This is just a ridiculous opinion, IMO.

He absolutely has huge bust potential.

[Gastineau Lives]

3 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

This is just a ridiculous opinion, IMO.

He absolutely has huge bust potential.

I always find it amazing when people disagree with the overwhelming majority of informed opinion and are so vehement that the majority of informed opinion is not only wrong (which would be fine) but is in fact, ridiculous. 

[UntouchableCrew]

5 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

I always find it amazing when people disagree with the overwhelming majority of informed opinion and are so vehement that the majority of informed opinion is not only wrong (which would be fine) but is in fact, ridiculous. 

He doesn't even have a real position in the NFL. How could a player like that be "bust proof?" He could easily end up as a big slot receiver who struggles to get separation at the NFL level or as a too small in-line TE that is a liability in the run game. You're going to need to have a plan for how to use him which is the opposite of bust proof.

[RedBeardedSavage]

6 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

I always find it amazing when people disagree with the overwhelming majority of informed opinion and are so vehement that the majority of informed opinion is not only wrong (which would be fine) but is in fact, ridiculous. 

Every single year in the NFL draft, the overwhelming consensus of informed opinion proves to be worthless. 

This thing is difficult.

[Gastineau Lives]

14 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

He doesn't even have a real position in the NFL. How could a player like that be "bust proof?" He could easily end up as a big slot receiver who struggles to get separation at the NFL level or as a too small in-line TE that is a liability in the run game. You're going to need to have a plan for how to use him which is the opposite of bust proof.

Yeah except he’s not a liability in the run game and he’s not too small.

Tight end IS a position where you do have to plan how to use them. They’re versatile in that way that’s why it’s gold when you have a good one. 

[Gastineau Lives]

15 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Every single year in the NFL draft, the overwhelming consensus of informed opinion proves to be worthless. 

This thing is difficult.

I guess we have to agree on the definition of bust first. 

[Trotter]

3 hours ago, mrcoops said:

Bust-proof is a bold claim, considering the past history of 1st round TEs.

Elite talents at TE are very rare in the first round, and turn out to be disappointing more often than not.

Bowers is an exciting prospect, but he has extremely high expectations to meet if he goes top 10.

i really like this take.

While im sure there are exceptions, my memory is that these guys who are can't miss or use the term generational turn out to be good players, but not top of the first round impact. There was a guy from ND who maybe was drafted by the giants - cant miss - generational who was good but certainly not changing your org. 

Bowers might turn out to be great, but history seems to indicate he will be a good player and im simply not sure  that is enough for the Jets at this point.

Maybe I still have Johnny Mitchell anxiety 

[Jet Nut]

57 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

I always find it amazing when people disagree with the overwhelming majority of informed opinion and are so vehement that the majority of informed opinion is not only wrong (which would be fine) but is in fact, ridiculous. 

I love how they take the highest ranked player, the ones that are either deemed generational or can’t miss prospects and because they’re so highly ranked they call them “huge bust potential”.  
Stay away from those can’t miss players, if they bust, like any player can it’s a longer fall.  So what if he’s their pick, if 3 WRs and the top OL picks are gone, don’t draft the highly ranked player, that could turn out to be a bigger bust at 10 than the 4th ranked WR because no one is ranking him at the top of the draft.  

[dbatesman]

I do not like Kevin Cole (of PFF's stable of smug, didactic dorks, he is the smuggest and didacticest), but this has some strong, data-driven arguments

 

 

[RedBeardedSavage]

2 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

I love how they take the highest ranked player, the ones that are either deemed generational or can’t miss prospects and because they’re so highly ranked they call them “huge bust potential”.  
Stay away from those can’t miss players, if they bust, like any player can it’s a longer fall.  So what if he’s their pick, if 3 WRs and the top OL picks are gone, don’t draft the highly ranked player, that could turn out to be a bigger bust at 10 than the 4th ranked WR because no one is ranking him at the top of the draft.  

Speaking of 'generational' prospects, is there an example of one that skipped all athletic testing and then went on to play great in the NFL? 

[Larz]

2 hours ago, slats said:

I’ll laugh like hell if I’m wrong and root like hell for the kid to be everything you believe he is if that happens, but here are a few reasons I don’t think JD will take Bowers…

Whether he’s a TE, H-back, or slot WR, the positional value isn’t even first round grade let alone top ten grade. JD loves value. 
 
He’s undersized. He gets compared to Kittle (6’4”-250) and Kelce (6’5”-250), but he’s closer in size to Jusczcyk (6’2”-235). There just aren’t a lot of comps for guys his size having a ton of success at the NFL level. 
 
His game is speed and agility, but he refused to do any testing to confirm those abilities.  This is a red flag as strong testing could’ve moved him ahead of a WR or two much like it did with Pitts. There was every reason to show off these skills, and not doing so could easily be perceived as hiding. 

He suffered thru a lingering hamstring issue into April. He’s big for a speed guy, and big/fast guys get hamstring issues. Jelani Woods, a 10.0 RAS score TE, just missed all of last season with hamstring issues. This could be especially concerning if the hamstring problems are related to his attempt to bulk up. 
 
In total, the risk is greater than the potential reward, which is a GOAT-like TE who (generously) might give you 1200 yards and 10 TDs a year at his peak. 
 
But I’m not a betting guy, so I’ll just leave this here for someone to bump in the future, lol. 

What kind of value did the jets get from LT Becton and QB Wilson ? 
 

Im a Fauntanu guy but I understand the idea of taking Bowers. Going back to high school he plays all over the field. He’s just a special football player.  If the Jets don’t take him I hope he goes to the NFC. 

[Larz]

4 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Speaking of 'generational' prospects, is there an example of one that skipped all athletic testing and then went on to play great in the NFL? 

Bro 

[Jet Nut]

Just now, RedBeardedSavage said:

Speaking of 'generational' prospects, is there an example of one that skipped all athletic testing and then went on to play great in the NFL? 

Testing? I could care less given all the tape on this player.  You actually believe teams re scared because he didn’t run because he has a hammy issue?  Kellen Winslow was 4.6+, Tony Gonzalez ran a 4.8+.  Neither were said to have run a 4.5 or 4.4. 

[UntouchableCrew]

3 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Testing? I could care less given all the tape on this player.  You actually believe teams re scared because he didn’t run because he has a hammy issue?  Kellen Winslow was 4.6+, Tony Gonzalez ran a 4.8+.  Neither were said to have run a 4.5 or 4.4. 

His speed is very important if he’s not big. Not that complicated.

[Augustiniak]

7 minutes ago, Larz said:

What kind of value did the jets get from LT Becton and QB Wilson ? 
 

Im a Fauntanu guy but I understand the idea of taking Bowers. Going back to high school he plays all over the field. He’s just a special football player.  If the Jets don’t take him I hope he goes to the NFC. 

He is a football player and i think he’s good but he seems like a souped up Richie Anderson.  And this is why TEs shouldn’t go that high, only a small handful of TEs have changed offenses over the decades. 

[Jet Nut]

10 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

His speed is very important if he’s not big. Not that complicated.

There’s tons of tape that shows his speed, how he can run away from defenders.  We know he’s fast.
Im not defending Bowers, he’s not my first choice at 10 but if one of the top 3 WRs, the 1st didn’t test, or the top OL are gone I would avoid Bowers  because I don’t know if he would have ran a 4.5 40 after a training program didn’t drop his 40 from a 4.6 to a 4.5.  His speed is more than obvious in his game tape.  

More and more players are skipping testing.  At least 3 of the very top are this year. 

[Gastineau Lives]

5 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

His speed is very important if he’s not big. Not that complicated.

He's not fast. He's not big. How do we even know he played college football? 

[RedBeardedSavage]

4 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Testing? I could care less given all the tape on this player.  You actually believe teams re scared because he didn’t run because he has a hammy issue?  Kellen Winslow was 4.6+, Tony Gonzalez ran a 4.8+.  Neither were said to have run a 4.5 or 4.4. 

Najee Harris had 'ankle issues' and declined all testing. Fella had a lot of tape in the SEC and 30 TD's @ Bama. Looked great in big games. 

But Najee wasn't generational, sure, fair. Tremendously productive in the SEC, though.

Plays like Chris Ivory in a down year in the NFL tho. 

I'm asking about the 'generational' ones - they usually test and show it? 

We're looking at an incomplete resume. 

[Asymmetrical]

seems like he's going to be a good pro but I can't shake the worry that instead of getting this paradigm busting phenom you're gonna wind up with a pretty good tight end. Which is a bad pick at ten. 

[Asymmetrical]

2 minutes ago, Asymmetrical said:

seems like he's going to be a good pro but I can't shake the worry that instead of getting this paradigm busting phenom you're gonna wind up with a pretty good tight end. Which is a bad pick at ten. 

in retrospect, this is somewhat cowardly hedging. I say no to Bowers and if I'm wrong that's fine. 

[UntouchableCrew]

12 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

There’s tons of tape that shows his speed, how he can run away from defenders.  We know he’s fast.
Im not defending Bowers, he’s not my first choice at 10 but if one of the top 3 WRs, the 1st didn’t test, or the top OL are gone I would avoid Bowers  because I don’t know if he would have ran a 4.5 40 after a training program didn’t drop his 40 from a 4.6 to a 4.5.  His speed is more than obvious in his game tape.  

More and more players are skipping testing.  At least 3 of the very top are this year. 

 

12 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

He's not fast. He's not big. How do we even know he played college football? 

He was a great college football player and I agree "he's fast."

But the debate isn't "is a good college football player" or "is he fast" the debate is whether we should draft him in the top ten of the NFL draft which is a pretty different debate for an undersized TE who didn't test.