Ryan Fitzpatrick lifts Jets offense from wretched to good, which could make them great

[thshadow]

I found this article in the Washington Post interesting.  Lots of stats.  (Although big reliance on QBR, which as we've discussed elsewhere has serious flaws.)

While I'm sure this thread will devolve into whether Smith or Fitzpatrick sucks more  , I will point out that this article is mainly documenting something that pretty much all of us agree on - that Geno was god-awful his first two years, and Fitzpatrick this year has been somewhere between mediocre and OK.

One part I found particularly amazing:

They [the Jets last season] scored touchdowns on just 17 of 47 opportunities. The red-zone percentage of 36.2 percent was the worst red-zone percentage by a Jets team this century according to the NFL’s Game Statistic and Information System. This year, they have already scored 11 touchdowns in 15 opportunities, ranking fifth in the league.

Anyway, here's the full article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2015/10/14/ryan-fitzpatrick-lifts-jets-offense-from-wretched-to-good-which-could-make-them-great/

 

[nyjunc]

[Bruce Harper]

It felt like Geno would hold onto the ball forever but interesting to see it backed up by numbers.

[nyjunc]

It felt like Geno would hold onto the ball forever but interesting to see it backed up by numbers.

do the #s account for geno never playing w/ BRANDON MARSHALL? or playing under this OC? his #2 was kerley, kerley can't get on the field this season.

 

I am NOT bashing Fitz but the difference in this O is Brandon marshall not the QB.

[JohnnyLV]

Article is dumb. It is the OC, better HC and better weapons, especially Marshall that is the reason for the change in all the stats. Smith held on to the ball so long because no one was pretty much ever open. It also ignores the last 4 games when the offense was finally with a healthy Decker, and Harvin and Owusu were added to the mix, games in which the "horrible" Geno performed at a much higher level than Fitz is now. Throw in Rex forcing the wildcat and all that other crap onto the offense last year and the fact that the defense was horrible and it is impossible to compare performance from last year to this year,

[thshadow]

Obviously you can't say anything conclusively about Geno and time-to-throw with *this* year's team, but I think the most striking difference comparing Geno last year to Fitz this year is Fitzpatrick's decisiveness.  He takes his drop, makes his read, and then throws.  Period.  Sometimes the decisions are horrible , but they're decisions.

If Geno plays again, a big thing I hope he learns from Fitz is to be more decisive.

[nyjunc]

Obviously you can't say anything conclusively about Geno and time-to-throw with *this* year's team, but I think the most striking difference comparing Geno last year to Fitz this year is Fitzpatrick's decisiveness.  He takes his drop, makes his read, and then throws.  Period.  Sometimes the decisions are horrible , but they're decisions.

If Geno plays again, a big thing I hope he learns from Fitz is to be more decisive.

More important that that I hope he's watching Fitz act and lead like a  professional. His teammates love him, no one is punching Fitz and if they did there would be a brawl to defend him.  Geno has to earn respect in that LR first and that may not happen here, that may have to happen elsewhere.

[Lupz27]

FitzPatrick, and Good in the same sentence discredits this writer.

[Charlie Brown]

do the #s account for geno never playing w/ BRANDON MARSHALL? or playing under this OC? his #2 was kerley, kerley can't get on the field this season.

 

I am NOT bashing Fitz but the difference in this O is Brandon marshall not the QB.

Of course your post and others are 100%

We can pick on Geno for real reasons without making foolish stuff up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thank you and to the article writer....

Good Grief!

[Bruce Harper]

do the #s account for geno never playing w/ BRANDON MARSHALL? or playing under this OC? his #2 was kerley, kerley can't get on the field this season.

 

I am NOT bashing Fitz but the difference in this O is Brandon marshall not the QB.

I guess I touched a nerve.  I am not a Geno hater.  Just made an observation.  Not saying the receivers aren't better this year.  Geno made steady improvement and probably would have improved exponentially this year if hadn't gotten his jaw broken.  Used to get rid of the ball very fast to Tavon Austin in college.

[Savage69]

I guess I touched a nerve.  I am not a Geno hater.  Just made an observation.  Not saying the receivers aren't better this year.  Geno made steady improvement and probably would have improved exponentially this year if hadn't gotten his jaw broken.  Used to get rid of the ball very fast to Tavon Austin in college.

Of course Pro defenses may be a tad tougher then college defenses..

[BigRy56]

Oh no... The Geno crowd is not to like this one

[AFJF]

Oh no... The Geno crowd is not to like this one

I can see a few folks losing sleep over this.

[SenorGato]

Honestly these guys just need to work hard and believe in themselves. If they play a team focused on victory, nothing can stop them. 

[Larz]

the very first pass fitz threw as a jet it was clear to me he is a much better QB than geno.  However, this offense has been elevated by Marshall and Gailey much more than fitz.

[EM31]

do the #s account for geno never playing w/ BRANDON MARSHALL? or playing under this OC? his #2 was kerley, kerley can't get on the field this season.

 

I am NOT bashing Fitz but the difference in this O is Brandon marshall not the QB.

He played with Percy Harvin and Eric Decker and he was still horrible..

[AFJF]

He played with Percy Harvin and Eric Decker and he was still horrible..

And Jeremy Kerley, and Jace Amaro, and one of the most productive running games in the NFL.

[KRL]

Whatever, the real reason is we have a HC & OC that believe in giving the ball to our

three physical play makers in the red zone.  It also helps we aren't running double reverses

and predictable wildcat plays anymore

[TuscanyTile2]

 

One part I found particularly amazing:

They [the Jets last season] scored touchdowns on just 17 of 47 opportunities. The red-zone percentage of 36.2 percent was the worst red-zone percentage by a Jets team this century according to the NFL’s Game Statistic and Information System.

Isn't "this century" only ~15 years old?

[jgb]

Isn't "this century" only ~15 years old?

it was also the worst of all years ending in "14." historically bad!!

[jgb]

do the #s account for geno never playing w/ BRANDON MARSHALL? or playing under this OC? his #2 was kerley, kerley can't get on the field this season.

 

I am NOT bashing Fitz but the difference in this O is Brandon marshall not the QB.

Show me an NFL GM who requires an ideal situation before making assessments on talent and I'll show you a guy collecting unemployment.

[Smashmouth]

the very first pass fitz threw as a jet it was clear to me he is a much better QB than geno.  However, this offense has been elevated by Marshall and Gailey much more than fitz.

This is very true ..this offense has been elevated due to those guys but its more consistent due to Fitz. Fitz is not great that has been established but he can be consistent and in all due respect Fitz has never played on this good of a football team either . I don't see Fitz making the dumb mistakes Geno and Sanchez made regularly but I do see him managing games very well and as the timing gets better and QB'WR's become more familiar this could be a very tough ball control offense to deal with the second half of the season.

[Mogglez]

Obviously you can't say anything conclusively about Geno and time-to-throw with *this* year's team, but I think the most striking difference comparing Geno last year to Fitz this year is Fitzpatrick's decisiveness.  He takes his drop, makes his read, and then throws.  Period.  Sometimes the decisions are horrible , but they're decisions.

If Geno plays again, a big thing I hope he learns from Fitz is to be more decisive.

A lot easier to make a decision when you have weapons that are actually able to get open.

[Mogglez]

He played with Percy Harvin and Eric Decker and he was still horrible..

Actually if you take away the Bills game (the game where our genius coaches told him to force the ball to Harvin) he played pretty damn well.  So no, you would be wrong on that one. 

[David Harris]

I'm just happy no more wildcat Ha! - the worst.

 

i enjoyed the article- well researched, unlike all the local rags- wsj would write something like this I suppose.

I support the colors - Fitz is a smart journeyman - and he's our best QB in recent memory. I still shudder at some of his misses or the thought of him having to come from behind. This is a deep playoff, maybe Super Bowl caliber team with an elite QB. Makes me want to get greedy and force Geno into the starting lineup just for the higher ceiling. But the wise thing is to follow Bowles' judgement- he seems to know what he's doing so we should just sit back and enjoy winning some games and see how it all pans out.

[EM31]

Actually if you take away the Bills game (the game where our genius coaches told him to force the ball to Harvin) he played pretty damn well.  So no, you would be wrong on that one. 

Geno has been basically the worst QB in the entire NFL for both of the years he started for us.  It really wasn't even close for 2nd place.  The weapos between last year and this year are comparable.  So no, in fact YOU would be wrong on that one.

[Jetster]

Has Fitz ever felt this comfortable anywhere? 

I would imagine it was with Buffalo when they gave him a big contract & expected more than he could deliver. He's played on some bad teams and was asked to do more than he's able. I think he's getting more confident, the players surrounding him know he has a great grasp on the offense & can run it & lead the team.

As a fan I love the fact that he's smart, changes cadence, knows how to get blockers in the proper areas, gets the ball out quickly. What I'd like to see him do better is to stop throwing long into triple coverage? I'm like "someone else is open" when 3 guys are around the ball. I will say though, most of that occurred vs Eagles with Decker & Ivory down and Smith really getting his 1st reps after being out a long time. He also has to stop panicking on his check downs, he's hearing footsteps that aren't there & missing some easy throws.

Other than that, it seems team really trusts & likes Fitzy which is important. The Oline plays pretty ornery around him & has his back. Things are looking up, especially if we take care of the Redskins. 4-1 heading into Gillette, who woulda thunk?

[drdetroit]

Geno has been basically the worst QB in the entire NFL for both of the years he started for us.  It really wasn't even close for 2nd place.  The weapos between last year and this year are comparable.  So no, in fact YOU would be wrong on that one.

Geno hasn't been the worst starting Qb let alone worst qb. yes he's sucked but what you're saying isn't true.  Still in favor of Fitz starting however

[nyjunc]

I guess I touched a nerve.  I am not a Geno hater.  Just made an observation.  Not saying the receivers aren't better this year.  Geno made steady improvement and probably would have improved exponentially this year if hadn't gotten his jaw broken.  Used to get rid of the ball very fast to Tavon Austin in college.

No nerves touched, I just like to deal in reality.  Fitz has not been the difference maker on the field.  Brandon Marshall has.

[EM31]

Who has been worse?

[Jetdawgg]

How many of the WR's that Geno was throwing to are still in the league? I want 14 to start also. Comparisons should be made on an equal basis though. It is clear that that the previous HC cared little about the O here.

[drdetroit]

Who has been worse?

Hoyer, Mallet, Foles, EJ Manuel, Weeden, Clausen, Cousins, RG3, Locker, Lindley

 

Colin Kaepernick and Stafford are now about as bad as Geno was last 2 years.

[cant wait]

No nerves touched, I just like to deal in reality.  Fitz has not been the difference maker on the field.  Brandon Marshall has.

and the jets D getting the ball back multiple times a game

[EM31]

Hoyer, Mallet, Foles, EJ Manuel, Weeden, Clausen, Cousins, RG3, Locker, Lindley

 

Colin Kaepernick and Stafford are now about as bad as Geno was last 2 years.

Hrrmmm.... don't agree on most of those.

Foles seems to have come through his problems and those were really one-year problems to begin with.  His previous year was off the charts good.  Over the last two years he averages out to better than Geno. 

Hoyer was better than Geno last year.

RG3 is fragile basically but better when healthy.  To expensive I will agree but basically better when he is on the field.

Stafford is also fragile but when he is healthy (rare) there is no real question that he is a more effective QB.

Geno has generally been healthy and so if your argument is that Geno is better than <always injured> then that is one point of view but not really the point I was trying to make.

[Mogglez]

Geno has been basically the worst QB in the entire NFL for both of the years he started for us.  It really wasn't even close for 2nd place.  The weapos between last year and this year are comparable.  So no, in fact YOU would be wrong on that one.

You are absolutely delusional if you truly believe that our weapons from last year are even remotely comparable to this year. The presence of Brandon Marshall alone makes a ridiculous difference.