Watch this - QB Josh Allen

[flgreen]

27 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Allen and Bryce Petty can play Madden together. It all starts to make sense now. 

Not only that, but he and Hack can stand on the end of the pier together and hit the ocean.  

[joewilly12]

4 minutes ago, jetfan39 said:

considering that the only qbs on our roster are hack and petty, for once you are right  

You forgot Joel Stave and you call yourself a Jets fan. 

[SenorGato]

42 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

 

 

 

Much humility in that second tweet 

[jetfan39]

1 minute ago, joewilly12 said:

You forgot Joel Stave and you call yourself a Jets fan. 

I don't know how on earth I could have forgotten him.  I don't know what I was thinking  

[Patriot Killa]

3 hours ago, lounap23 said:

Spoke to this on the another thread...  So I don't want to repeat. But in short.  0 Talent on the OL (for that level) and 0 talent at WR ( on that level) cause him to throw a lot too soon or into the tightest of windows... Form what I have watched from him his accuracy was great at 56% for the situations he was under...

LMFAOOOO ...this is the EXACT thing we said about Hackenberg coming out of Penn St. PASS.

[legler82]

23 minutes ago, SMC said:

The bolded is a good point of emphasis.  It's 2018 and we're close to being 20 yrs into this century which means there has been a bunch of prospects evaluated and drafted in that span.  Players have had complete careers in that time.  That's a large enough time to make definitive statements on this point about completion percentage.

What Farve or anyone else did over 30 years ago becomes irrelevant.  That's like trying to make a QB argument in 1985 based on what happened in the 1950s.  It's a different game.

That said, there are so few good QBs out there that some team is going to pick Allen in the 1st and the rumors are that it will likely be the Browns in one of their two 1st round picks in the top 4.

If we are talking about contemporizing the 60% rule then we need to also take into account the recent infestation of the Spread offense in college football which is grossly inflating the majority of prospects CMP%.  Petty completed 60+% of his passes in college and Geno completed 70+% of his passes his senior, coincidentally his only year he played in said system.  Would we classify either as being accurate?  Just from watching the tape, I'd say Allen is more accurate than Petty even though their college CMP%s would tell you different.  IMO on paper 60+ CMP% running the Spread in the Big 12 tells me about as much as 56 CMP% in the Mountain West running a pro-style offense, which is nothing!  Either way I'd need to see the tape.

[hmhertz]

Benjamin Allbright
Verified account
With Jeremy Bates promotion to OC by Jets, you can strongly start to link QB Josh Allen there.
 

[Jetsplayer21]

Allen won’t go in top 10

[JustInFudge]

23 minutes ago, SMC said:

The bolded is a good point of emphasis.  It's 2018 and we're close to being 20 yrs into this century which means there has been a bunch of prospects evaluated and drafted in that span.  Players have had complete careers in that time.  That's a large enough time to make definitive statements on this point about completion percentage.

What Farve or anyone else did over 30 years ago becomes irrelevant.  That's like trying to make a QB argument in 1985 based on what happened in the 1950s.  It's a different game.

That said, there are so few good QBs out there that some team is going to pick Allen in the 1st and the rumors are that it will likely be the Browns in one of their two 1st round picks in the top 4.

To be fair, @legler82 pointed out that I over looked Stafford.  Still, 1 QB in 17 years is the only example and his returns are very meh.

I'm now double checking my research....thanks legler! 

haha

 

 

[Joejet]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

You’ve probably heard of Dan Marino

|

						Passing
Year ▲	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*1979	Pitt	Ind		QB	12	130	222	58.6	1680	7.6	6.6	10	9	128.9
*1980	Pitt	Ind		QB	12	116	224	51.8	1609	7.2	5.7	15	14	121.7
*1981	Pitt	Ind		QB	12	226	380	59.5	2876	7.6	6.8	37	23	143.1
*1982	Pitt	Ind		QB	12	221	378	58.5	2432	6.4	4.6	17	23	115.2
Career	Pitt					693	1204	57.6	8597	7.1	5.9	79	69	127.7

[Warfish]

20 minutes ago, flgreen said:

Is this based on your watching the Rose Bowl?

Nope, just his stats in the minors.

The more I read about Allen, the more he feels like a very Jetsy move at QB if we stay at #6.

[legler82]

8 minutes ago, JiF said:

To be fair, @legler82 pointed out that I over looked Stafford.  Still, 1 QB in 17 years is the only example and his returns are very meh.

I'm now double checking my research....thanks legler! 

haha

 

 

Matt Ryan also completed less than 60% of his passes as a senior and finishes his college career average just a hair under that mark.

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, legler82 said:

Matt Ryan also completed less than 60% of his passes his senior and finishes his college career average just a hair under that mark.

59.9.  I gave it to him. 

Our count is up to 2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[dbatesman]

25 minutes ago, NoBowles said:

its not like we have this sample of 300 franchise QB's in the last 20 years to gauge, we have about 20 of them. 

The fact that you don’t think there’s a denominator here is entirely the problem.

[NoBowles]

1 minute ago, dbatesman said:

The fact that you don’t think there’s a denominator here is entirely the problem.

lol, so is the denominator the one that goes on top, or bottom?

[lounap23]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Just drafting a guy doesn't simply make him a franchise guy.  That's the big mistake people seem to be making.  You can't wish a QB into being your guy for the next decade just because you draft him high.  How did that work with Sanchez?

I'd rather draft no QB rather than draft the WRONG guy.  Make Bowles go into the season with Hackenberg, Petty, and a late rounder.  Tank properly, fire Macc and Bowles, hire a VP, THEN draft the RIGHT QB.  

My response is about getting the guy you think is gonna be the franchise guy WHOEVER the GM/Coach/Scouts feel it is. Not about just drafting any QB    Be smart about it but get the GUY...  This sis why I wasn't upset with the trade up for Hack... He may be crap but if you evaluate him to be the guy and he's not gonna be there next tine you pick go get him.  And Sanchez was a good move but poor development from the coaching staff did him in.  If we had CS that could develop a QB he probably would still be the guy..

[Sperm Edwards]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

I take it you were the guy in the Jets' War Room when when we didn't move up for Brett Favre

...and when we passed on Dan Marino

...and Joe Montana.

 

[SMC]

37 minutes ago, NoBowles said:

You realize that the difference between 56% and 60% is less than one completion per game? For argument sake, you don't think that receiving talent, offensive line talent, offensive system, opposition talent, etc. all play into the equation? I mean damn, one less throw away per game because of a sh*tty Line, one less drop or bad route, or dump off pass per game. This is what we are going to disqualify a QB prospect over, seriously? I don't know, its not like we have this sample of 300 franchise QB's in the last 20 years to gauge, we have about 20 of them. I only do statistics for a living, so I am probably not qualified, but this stat people are quoting like its the be all and end all seems silly to me, and I don't even like Allen as a prospect.

Good point, but it is cumulative, not just per game.  It's the same as hitters in baseball.  A .300 hitter makes big money, getting 180 hits out of 600 at bats a season, but the .250 hitter only gets 30 less hits, which means only 1 less hit every 5 games! 

That said, I don't think it's the ultimate disqualifier, but falls into the negative category.  Another negative factor is the number of starts, being 25.  Lewin Theory provides that a college QB with 35 or more starts and a completion percentage of 60% or better will have a better chance at being successful in the NFL.  Allen has negatives in both categories which raises red flags for his prospects.

[Patriot Killa]

3 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I take it you were the guy in the Jets' War Room when when we didn't move up for Brett Favre

...and when we passed on Dan Marino

...and Joe Montana.

 

I’ll go with the cliche for 500, sperm.

ahem*

difFerent eRa

[SMC]

41 minutes ago, legler82 said:

If we are talking about contemporizing the 60% rule then we need to also take into account the recent infestation of the Spread offense in college football which is grossly inflating the majority of prospects CMP%.  Petty completed 60+% of his passes in college and Geno completed 70+% of his passes his senior, coincidentally his only year he played in said system.  Would we classify either as being accurate?  Just from watching the tape, I'd say Allen is more accurate than Petty even though their college CMP%s would tell you different.  IMO on paper 60+ CMP% running the Spread in the Big 12 tells me about as much as 56 CMP% in the Mountain West running a pro-style offense, which is nothing!  Either way I'd need to see the tape.

This is a good point as well, but as I mentioned above, it doesn't account for the second factor in the Lewin Theory: number of collegiate starts.  Allen had only 25, so that is an issue.  Are both a deal breaker?  No, because teams have to take chances in light of the fact that there are so few franchise QBs.

[Dcronin]

I am susceptible to footage of good throws. He looks good to me! But...NO.

If there was ever a year to reduce every possible risk when it comes to QB, this is it. If you don't have as close to a sure thing for QB at 6, trade down, or grab BPA. I don't care about excuses/rationale. You need a decent completion percentage.

DC

[HessStation]

35 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

The fact that you don’t think there’s a denominator here is entirely the problem.

Ok then, Allen or Minka or whatever Fitzpatrick?

[Obrien2Toon]

How can you judge anything on completion % in today’s college

half of the teams run bubble screens 15 times a game 

[Sperm Edwards]

18 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

I’ll go with the cliche for 500, sperm.

ahem*

difFerent eRa

Well then he should choose a different word than "ever" no?

Elway had a 65% completion rate in the same era as Marino, and several years before Favre's "era"

Kerry Collins, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, (I was just grabbing names off the career NFL passing yards leaders). I'm not spending the next 30 min looking up more names and stats that will fit the narrow definition of "ever" 

Greatest list ever? No, but apparently I'm not allowed to use most of the players names I'd include because they mostly played in a different era, and again I stopped looking.  

[nycdan]

2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Well then he should choose a different word than "ever" no?

Elway had a 65% completion rate in the same era as Marino, and several years before Favre's "era"

Kerry Collins, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, and I'm not spending the next 30 min looking up names and stats.

Greatest list ever? No, but apparently I'm not allowed to use most of the players names I'd include because they mostly played in a different era.  

Exactly.  Anyone who's been here long enough should know that if you make an absolute statement, you're going to get exceptions thrown back at you.  That's the JN way and we're damned proud of it!

[Sperm Edwards]

Just now, nycdan said:

Exactly.  Anyone who's been here long enough should know that if you make an absolute statement, you're going to get exceptions thrown back at you.  That's the JN way and we're damned proud of it!

 

 

[jets rooter]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

No QB who has ever completed under 60 % of his throws in college has ever had success in the NFL

so maybe the jets will draft mason Rudolph. at least his name is interesing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, KRL said:

I watched Allen in 5-6 games this year against teams similar to and better than Wyoming.  There is
no denying his textbook size & tools.  He makes throws that make you drool and he has a frame that
projects to be like Newton & Roethlisberger.  But for someone who is supposed to be a top QB prospect
he never lifted his team against mediocre competition and when he stepped up in class (Iowa & Oregon)
he was overwhelmed.  He could be successful on the pro level but who was the last QB whose accuracy
and completion percentage improved going against the best in the world.  I'm totally petrified of
him as a prospect 

 

[Patriot Killa]

3 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Well then he should choose a different word than "ever" no?

Elway had a 65% completion rate in the same era as Marino, and several years before Favre's "era"

Kerry Collins, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, (I was just grabbing names off the career NFL passing yards leaders). I'm not spending the next 30 min looking up more names and stats that will fit the narrow definition of "ever" 

Greatest list ever? No, but apparently I'm not allowed to use most of the players names I'd include because they mostly played in a different era, and again I stopped looking.  

I agree, he screwed up at “ever”. 

But to the OP’s point..

Allen reminds me of Hackenberg physically and stats wise so much though that it scares me. Idk why he is still in discussion for top pick. I don’t. 

[jets rooter]

I have a feeling.that mason Rudolph will be the jets pick. I love his name.

[Patriot Killa]

Just now, jets rooter said:

I have a feeling.that mason Rudolph will be the jets pick. I love his name.

I think Mayfield is a cool ass last name.. but no one beats my last name.

”Puma”

[joewilly12]

2 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

I think Mayfield is a cool ass last name.. but no one beats my last name.

”Puma”

[HessStation]

1 hour ago, SenorGato said:

Academic papers have been written on finding QBs in the draft!! It’s not some mystical process only the gods can divine!

FO took the Lewan concepts and have recalibrated it at least 3 teams with increasing accuracy!

By anything objective Allen will not be a good prospect. 

If you really want to get wild and go a sub-60% guy maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe Lamar Jackson post-combine and not with a first. 

Just to be clear, Allen is probably my least favorite "top tier" qb prospect. I think I like Falk more than him too. But I'm just saying...if the Jets pick him at 6 I'm not gonna pretend to hate the pick until I see him play for a bit. 

Edit: and lol I have no idea where the pic below came from. I didn't post it but it's there true story. 

[Patriot Killa]

2 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

 

[NoBowles]

28 minutes ago, SMC said:

Good point, but it is cumulative, not just per game.  It's the same as hitters in baseball.  A .300 hitter makes big money, getting 180 hits out of 600 at bats a season, but the .250 hitter only gets 30 less hits, which means only 1 less hit every 5 games! 

That said, I don't think it's the ultimate disqualifier, but falls into the negative category.  Another negative factor is the number of starts, being 25.  Lewin Theory provides that a college QB with 35 or more starts and a completion percentage of 60% or better will have a better chance at being successful in the NFL.  Allen has negatives in both categories which raises red flags for his prospects.

A couple of things...

First, .300 is not the be all and end all that it used to be, baseball stats have evolved way way beyond BA as a measure for valuing and paying hitters.

Second, baseball is far, far easier to normalize statistics than football is. There are so many more variables at play in football than baseball.

In general, I believe incorporating stats and metrics in sports is awesome and extremely valuable. That said, when it comes to football, a lot of people like to pawn off stats and math that either A they don't understand, or B they know their readers won't understand. 

If you look at the way BB uses statistics, you see that he gets it, and beyond the help they get from the refs, you understand why the Patriots are who they are.

All that said, I am not defending Allen or claiming he is legit. I think the odds of Todd Bowles making him work is close to zero. I am just commenting on the back napkin statisticians who throw around math and stats they don't understand and act as though they are smarter than the rest of the board because they read an article.

[SenorGato]

6 minutes ago, HessStation said:

Just to be clear, Allen is probably my least favorite "top tier" qb prospect. I think I like Falk more than him too. But I'm just saying...if the Jets pick him at 6 I'm not gonna pretend for to hate the pick until I see him play for a bit. 

It’s exasperating, this place’s aversion to any deep analysis that attempts to demystify the game of foozeball.