Bit's 2018 Mock 1.0 (assumes Kirk Cousins to NYJ)

[bitonti]

 

http://www.draftdaddy.com/MD/draft2018.htm

1 - CLE - QB Sam Darnold, USC 
2 - NYG - QB Josh Allen, Wyoming
3 - IND - ER Bradley Chubb, NC State
4 - CLE - RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State
5 - DEN - QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma 
6 - NYJ - OG Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame  *assuming Kirk*
7 - TB - OT Orlando Brown, Oklahoma    
8 - CHI - WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama
9 - *BUF (VIA SF) - QB Josh Rosen, UCLA *trade both rd 1 picks*
10 - OAK - LB Roquan Smith, Georgia
11 - MIA - LB Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech
12 - CIN - DT Vita Vea, Washington
13 - WAS - DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama  
14 - GB - CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State
15 - ARZ - DL Bryan Taven, Florida
16 - BAL - DB Derwin James, Florida State  
17 - LAC - LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama  
18 - SEA - DL Rasheem Green, USC 
19 - DAL - DL Da'Ron Payne, Alabama  
20 - DET - ER Kentavius Street, NC State
21 - *SF (VIA BUF) - CB Carlton Davis, Auburn
22 - *SF (VIA BUF) - WR Michael Gallup, Colorado State 
23 - LAR - OT Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame 
24 - CAR - OG Isaiah Wynn, Georgia
25 - TEN - OG Braden Smith, Auburn 
26 - ATL - CB Donte Jackson, LSU
27 - NO - QB Lamar Jackson, Louisville
28 - PIT - DL Marcus Davenport, UTSA  
29 - JAX - OG Will Hernandez, UTEP 
30 - MIN - DT Maurice Hurst, Michigan
31 - NE - CB Isaiah Oliver, Colorado   
32 - PHI - OT Connor Williams, Texas  

Pre-combine next best 

QB Kyle Lauletta, Richmond

RB Derrius Guice, LSU 

WR James Washington, Oklahoma State 

OT Jamarco Jones, Ohio State 

OT Chukwuma Okorafor, Western Michigan 

ER Hercules Mata'afa, Washington State 

LB Leighton VanderEsch, Boise State

CB Josh Jackson, Iowa  

CB Jaire Alexander, Louisville

DB Ronnie Harrison, Alabama

[bitonti]

A little more explanation on the Jets pick. Assuming Mac wins the Kirk sweepstakes, he will sit and let the draft come to him. That means Nelson, Barkley or maybe Orlando Brown (based on bloodlines. A defender like Tremaine Edmunds wouldn't be that surprising if he tests through the roof. Mostly though Mac just sits and waits for value. No trade up or down. This guy's best case scenario is if everyone says "That was an easy pick at 6."  

[JustInFudge]

10 minutes ago, bitonti said:

A little more explanation on the Jets pick. Assuming Mac wins the Kirk sweepstakes, he will sit and let the draft come to him. That means Nelson, Barkley or maybe Orlando Brown (based on bloodlines. A defender like Tremaine Edmunds wouldn't be that surprising if he tests through the roof. Mostly though Mac just sits and waits for value. No trade up or down. This guy's best case scenario is if everyone says "That was an easy pick at 6."  

I understand the logic.  IF the board was to fall that way, I could definitely see Nelson sitting at the top of Big Mac's Big Board.  It fits the mold of, the BAP fell to us at #6, just like Leo and Adams.  However, I'd still be pissed we took at G at #6 overall.  I'd prefer Ridley there, honestly.  But dont sleep on Vita Vea climbing up the Big Mac Big Board.  There are very few humans with that size and strength that can move like him.  Guy is an absolute monster.  And with Todd Bowles owning that first round pick, he could very easily be the pick.

The bomb dropper would be Roquan Smith, who might be the #1 overall guy on Big Mac's Big Board sponsored by Todd Bowles. 

Rosen is going to be interesting.  I think he's the best QB in the draft but will attitude and injuries play a factor?  That's going to get juicy! 

[jetsons]

assuming kirk to the jets ruined it for me... I also feel Denver would Definitely take Rosen before Mayfield, Elway seems to be infatuated w/the more purer passer... and if Mayfield is there at six You Draft HIM.

[MDL_JET]

I'd be pissed if Rosen just fell to us and we signed Kirk. I'd wanna draft him any way but i know that wont' happen. I'd call Arizona and be like YO come get this guy and give me everything. Or anybody else besides Miami and Buffalo. 

[JohnnyLV]

Cringe at the assume we sign Cousins part. Also Mac has publicly stated he does not like to use first rounders on OL (which is INSANELY dumb...i would not hire a GM that thought that) so I just dont see this being realistic. Face it, we are drafting safety again. Just get the pain over with now, so when the pick happens it just makes you numb and you dont wreck the house.

[Beerfish]

I',m fighting hard against taking a frigging guard at 6  I really am but I might be losing my own battle.  If Orlando Brown is the real deal I'd rather take a tackle ahead of Nelson even if he is the monster pick.  If there is a big gap between any of the tackles and nelson then fine.

[RedBeardedSavage]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

A little more explanation on the Jets pick. Assuming Mac wins the Kirk sweepstakes, he will sit and let the draft come to him. That means Nelson, Barkley or maybe Orlando Brown (based on bloodlines. A defender like Tremaine Edmunds wouldn't be that surprising if he tests through the roof. Mostly though Mac just sits and waits for value. No trade up or down. This guy's best case scenario is if everyone says "That was an easy pick at 6."  

Nelson appears to be great, but I'd be upset if we spent four years worth of first round picks on a five-technique, an inside linebacker, a strong safety, and a guard respectively.  Those are all luxury positions.  

But I can see the merits in signing a center (Jensen from Baltimore or Zach Fulton from KC) and drafting Nelson in the first to reform the core of this unit.  

Unrelated; what do you think of Harold Landry from BC?  I don't see him anywhere in your post and I'm curious of your opinion of him (or any of the other edge rushers in the second-round range)?  

[Tinstar]

So JoshRosen falls to the Jets pick at 6 and you think the best player available would be the Guard . 

[Patriot Killa]

35 minutes ago, Tinstar said:

So JoshRosen falls to the Jets pick at 6 and you think the best player available would be the Guard . 

He’s assuming we get Cousins, which in turn is assuming Mac disregards Rosen as a actual choice and goes to his next best BPA instead. 

Signing a 29 year old QB to the highest contract in NFL history just to turn around and draft a QB #6 because of BPA just doesn’t seem likes it’s a rational option so he went Guard. Personally I would trade down for picks if a blue chip player doesn’t fall. But I understand the reason Rosen isn’t taken here.

[DetroitRed]

Hey Bit, thanks for your mock. Question: why do you think the Giants are taking Allen?


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[nycdan]

IF we got Cousins and Rosen somehow falls to 6, I would want to trade down.  Not saying there's a partner for us there, but damn, I have to think ARI and/or CIN have an offer for us.

[HessStation]

Good job Bit.

 

i will literally lose my ******* sh*t if Rosen is there at 6 after these sh*tbags were to sign Cousins.

 

 

[Tinstar]

4 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

He’s assuming we get Cousins, which in turn is assuming Mac disregards Rosen as a actual choice and goes to his next best BPA instead. 

Signing a 29 year old QB to the highest contract in NFL history just to turn around and draft a QB #6 because of BPA just doesn’t seem likes it’s a rational option so he went Guard. Personally I would trade down for picks if a blue chip player doesn’t fall. But I understand the reason Rosen isn’t taken here.

I could careless who we sign in free agency . . If Josh Rosen is on the board at 6, he's BPA and you take him unless you can ransom him off for a good haul.

[LionelRichie]

9 hours ago, bitonti said:

A little more explanation on the Jets pick. Assuming Mac wins the Kirk sweepstakes, he will sit and let the draft come to him. That means Nelson, Barkley or maybe Orlando Brown (based on bloodlines. A defender like Tremaine Edmunds wouldn't be that surprising if he tests through the roof. Mostly though Mac just sits and waits for value. No trade up or down. This guy's best case scenario is if everyone says "That was an easy pick at 6."  

amazing detail on the mock.   few questions: 

1. if rosen is there at 6 would the Jets take 2 1's from Arizona?   

2.  Would you take buffalo's 2 1's this year for Rosen?   

3.  Assuming Crabtree is released, would OAK want to move up ahead of Chicago to get Ridley?   Could we get a their 2nd rd pick to move back 4 picks?   

4.  If you have Brown / Nelson going back to back, why not take the OT?   is there any chance that Shell can move inside to OG and replace Carpenter?   

[jgb]

13 hours ago, MDL_JET said:

I'd be pissed if Rosen just fell to us and we signed Kirk. I'd wanna draft him any way but i know that wont' happen. I'd call Arizona and be like YO come get this guy and give me everything. Or anybody else besides Miami and Buffalo. 

Agree with you. Macc will definitely trade down if we land Kirk and one of the top QB prospects falls to us. Macc loves no-brainers. 

[Philc1]

A guard at 6?  No thanks let’s get an edge rusher at 6 like Davenport who even naturally  fits the 3-4 and draft Will Hernandez in the 2nd or 3rd round to upgrade at LG

[Stark]

 

17 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

He’s assuming we get Cousins, which in turn is assuming Mac disregards Rosen as a actual choice and goes to his next best BPA instead. 

Signing a 29 year old QB to the highest contract in NFL history just to turn around and draft a QB #6 because of BPA just doesn’t seem likes it’s a rational option so he went Guard. Personally I would trade down for picks if a blue chip player doesn’t fall. But I understand the reason Rosen isn’t taken here.

12 hours ago, Tinstar said:

I could careless who we sign in free agency . . If Josh Rosen is on the board at 6, he's BPA and you take him unless you can ransom him off for a good haul.

Agree with @Tinstar on this. It would be unexpected and will work in the teams favor down the road. I know its not exactly the same as far as the $$$$, but no one in Green Bay thought Rodgers would make it to their pick and they took Rodgers because he was the best player. Different spots in the draft for sure. But If Rosen is there at , hell even Darnold, and you just signed Cousins IMO you take them. Trade one of your QB's later for a bunch of picks in the future. QB is the most important position and there are plenty of QB starved teams. I would be so pissed if we blow $30 mil on Cousins only for Rosen or Darnold to be available at 6.

[#27TheDominator]

I think there is some level of playing chicken if Rosen is available and Cousins already signed.  Teams will think we won't pull the trigger and I think we may be able to auction him off later for more than we are offered when sitting there.

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I think there is some level of playing chicken if Rosen is available and Cousins already signed.  Teams will think we won't pull the trigger and I think we may be able to auction him off later for more than we are offered when sitting there.

That's actually a great point. 

Then again, maybe they take him anyway.  We've already seen they're perfectly content taking a QB they have no plans to ever actually play.

[bitonti]

22 hours ago, JiF said:

I understand the logic.  IF the board was to fall that way, I could definitely see Nelson sitting at the top of Big Mac's Big Board.  It fits the mold of, the BAP fell to us at #6, just like Leo and Adams.  However, I'd still be pissed we took at G at #6 overall.  I'd prefer Ridley there, honestly.  But dont sleep on Vita Vea climbing up the Big Mac Big Board.  There are very few humans with that size and strength that can move like him.  Guy is an absolute monster.  And with Todd Bowles owning that first round pick, he could very easily be the pick.

The bomb dropper would be Roquan Smith, who might be the #1 overall guy on Big Mac's Big Board sponsored by Todd Bowles. 

Rosen is going to be interesting.  I think he's the best QB in the draft but will attitude and injuries play a factor?  That's going to get juicy! 

Roquan Smith is too similar to Lee and Adams, they all pretty much fill similar chaser/in the box roles. 

Forgot to mention if  ER Bradley Chubb gets past Indy that would also be a typical Mac style pick. Edge is a legitimate dire need and no one would question it. Mac's ideal board looks like Barkley/Chubb/Nelson and he hopes 3 QBs go before 6 so that one falls. 

[bitonti]

13 hours ago, LionelRichie said:

amazing detail on the mock.   few questions: 

1. if rosen is there at 6 would the Jets take 2 1's from Arizona?   

2.  Would you take buffalo's 2 1's this year for Rosen?   

3.  Assuming Crabtree is released, would OAK want to move up ahead of Chicago to get Ridley?   Could we get a their 2nd rd pick to move back 4 picks?   

4.  If you have Brown / Nelson going back to back, why not take the OT?   is there any chance that Shell can move inside to OG and replace Carpenter?   

-Yes they would take it but AZ wouldn't offer. If Arizona traded their first and second round picks, that would get them close enough according to the trade value chart. 2 rd 1 picks would be overpay to get from 15 to 6. 

-Buffalo's 2 1st get them to 6 exactly on this mock. I would take that deal because Mac has no intention of drafting Rosen and has to pass on him no matter what. 

- Ridley is an interesting prospect he is being pushed up because there's no real other 1st round graded WR this year. I don't think teams usually trade up for WR. 

-To be honest I almost did it that way. The reason I didn't is two fold 1) Brandon Shell is criminally underrated and might even have LT potential in a Cordy Glenn sort of way 2) Beachum is actually fine at LT, as it turns out. and 3) Nelson is legitimately a better prospect than Brown. 

Orlando Brown is like Marcus McNeill without the injuries (plus Brown's Dad "Zeus" Brown played line in the NFL and was actually the guy who freaked out when that ref threw a flag in his eye). Super Huge, not great technically but he is just tough to get behind. He's safe and large and probably plays RT forever.  IT's just not that bad a problem right now. 

[bitonti]

18 hours ago, DetroitRed said:

Hey Bit, thanks for your mock. Question: why do you think the Giants are taking Allen?


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It's either Darnold or Allen. Allen could actually be gone and in my guts I believe Darnold is a Giant. These are huge physical specimens and clean prospects overall. 

[bitonti]

16 hours ago, HessStation said:

Good job Bit.

 

i will literally lose my ******* sh*t if Rosen is there at 6 after these sh*tbags were to sign Cousins.

 

 

This draft is not what I want to happen. If that were the case the Jets would have zero interest in Kirk Cousins. We don't live in that world, apparently. 

Also Rosen is going to get semi-Kaepernicked you just watch. He's gotta be the face of the franchise but he's actually the guy who would make the biggest deal the next time there's something to protest. Owners hate that sh*t. they would rather go winless than deal with insubordination. Buffalo is honestly the only franchise I've heard about with legit interest. The Cardinals at 15 is theoretically his floor but take a look at that fan base and tell me they want any part of a So Cal librul who is also one of God's chosen people. That's like 3 strikes in Arizona. 

[Thai Jet]

22 hours ago, MDL_JET said:

I'd be pissed if Rosen just fell to us and we signed Kirk. I'd wanna draft him any way but i know that wont' happen. I'd call Arizona and be like YO come get this guy and give me everything. Or anybody else besides Miami and Buffalo. 

Agreed ! That would be best case  for the Jets.

[Thai Jet]

21 minutes ago, bitonti said:

This draft is not what I want to happen. If that were the case the Jets would have zero interest in Kirk Cousins. We don't live in that world, apparently. 

Also Rosen is going to get semi-Kaepernicked you just watch. He's gotta be the face of the franchise but he's actually the guy who would make the biggest deal the next time there's something to protest. Owners hate that sh*t. they would rather go winless than deal with insubordination. Buffalo is honestly the only franchise I've heard about with legit interest. The Cardinals at 15 is theoretically his floor but take a look at that fan base and tell me they want any part of a So Cal librul who is also one of God's chosen people. That's like 3 strikes in Arizona. 

I've said it here before: There's "something" about Rosen's head that I just don't like.  The Kap reference by you is EXCELLENT as is the Arizona reasoning . I can easily see him being this years Brady Quinn on draft day. I don't want any part of him. 

[#27TheDominator]

Seriously?   I can see teams shying away from Rosen's mouth, but Kaepernick?  Have you seen them throw?  Kaepernick failed because of his activism about how Tebow failed because of Christianity.  Watch them play, the problems are obvious.  The activism just cost him some extra chances.  Phoenix is among the top 20 Jewish communities world-wide.  Where do you think all the hymies from hymie town go when it gets cold? I think somebody is going to be in love with the way he throws a football and he will really have to **** up the interviews to drop to 15. 

[#27TheDominator]

Also, if Brandon Shell is criminally underrated, you might as well lock me up right now.  I have not seen much to get behind.  He was a JAG in his good games.

[dbatesman]

@bitonti Can Nelson play tackle?

[HessStation]

14 minutes ago, bitonti said:

This draft is not what I want to happen. If that were the case the Jets would have zero interest in Kirk Cousins. We don't live in that world, apparently. 

Also Rosen is going to get semi-Kaepernicked you just watch. He's gotta be the face of the franchise but he's actually the guy who would make the biggest deal the next time there's something to protest. Owners hate that sh*t. they would rather go winless than deal with insubordination. Buffalo is honestly the only franchise I've heard about with legit interest. The Cardinals at 15 is theoretically his floor but take a look at that fan base and tell me they want any part of a So Cal librul who is also one of God's chosen people. That's like 3 strikes in Arizona. 

I love Jackson to NO pick btw. Mentioned that myself a few weeks back.

[Augustiniak]

22 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Nelson appears to be great, but I'd be upset if we spent four years worth of first round picks on a five-technique, an inside linebacker, a strong safety, and a guard respectively.  Those are all luxury positions.  

But I can see the merits in signing a center (Jensen from Baltimore or Zach Fulton from KC) and drafting Nelson in the first to reform the core of this unit.  

Unrelated; what do you think of Harold Landry from BC?  I don't see him anywhere in your post and I'm curious of your opinion of him (or any of the other edge rushers in the second-round range)?  

can only look forward.  mccags would totally take nelson, his low risk bust guy.  then take cb and wr in 2nd round.

[nj meadowlands]

Gallup going this high would be veryyyy surprising

[bitonti]

20 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

Seriously?   I can see teams shying away from Rosen's mouth, but Kaepernick?  Have you seen them throw?  Kaepernick failed because of his activism about how Tebow failed because of Christianity.  Watch them play, the problems are obvious.  The activism just cost him some extra chances.  Phoenix is among the top 20 Jewish communities world-wide.  Where do you think all the hymies from hymie town go when it gets cold? I think somebody is going to be in love with the way he throws a football and he will really have to **** up the interviews to drop to 15. 

you ask me if I've seen Rosen throw, im asking you if you've heard him speak.  He could be just as big an activist as Kaepernick, he's already shown support in fact. 

Snowbirds in AZ don't get a vote by the way. There's locals who run that town for real. 

[bitonti]

19 hours ago, nj meadowlands said:

Gallup going this high would be veryyyy surprising

I can't pin down exactly who WR2 is in this draft but it's gonna be someone. There's going to be more than 1 WR in the first round. 

[nycdan]

On ‎2‎/‎21‎/‎2018 at 12:28 PM, bitonti said:

-Yes they would take it but AZ wouldn't offer. If Arizona traded their first and second round picks, that would get them close enough according to the trade value chart. 2 rd 1 picks would be overpay to get from 15 to 6. 

-Buffalo's 2 1st get them to 6 exactly on this mock. I would take that deal because Mac has no intention of drafting Rosen and has to pass on him no matter what. 

- Ridley is an interesting prospect he is being pushed up because there's no real other 1st round graded WR this year. I don't think teams usually trade up for WR. 

-To be honest I almost did it that way. The reason I didn't is two fold 1) Brandon Shell is criminally underrated and might even have LT potential in a Cordy Glenn sort of way 2) Beachum is actually fine at LT, as it turns out. and 3) Nelson is legitimately a better prospect than Brown. 

Orlando Brown is like Marcus McNeill without the injuries (plus Brown's Dad "Zeus" Brown played line in the NFL and was actually the guy who freaked out when that ref threw a flag in his eye). Super Huge, not great technically but he is just tough to get behind. He's safe and large and probably plays RT forever.  IT's just not that bad a problem right now. 

1) ARI only has one 1st round pick this year so he was likely inferring this year's 1st and next year's 1st.  Devaluing next year's 1st to a mid-2nd this year (which may not be the right valuation today but at least has some history) puts them right about where they would be with this year's 1st and 2nd.  In either case, I think the Jets could reasonably push for a little more, possibly just a swap of picks in our favor to balance it out depending on other interest in the pick.

2) Depending on what we did in FA and how you value the picks you think will be there at 21/22.  You are looking at guys like one of the OTs, Guice, maybe Price.  A pair from that list could be very compelling but do we want to give BUF a potential franchise QB to haunt us for the next 10 years?

3) Sammy Watkins is the last I recall but that was a big trade up.  I don't feel like Ridley is near the prospect Watkins was though so I agree that he doesn't seem like a trade-up candidate, particularly as high as 6 when there are better players on the board.