The RB Myth

[choon328]

This is about the "you can find a RB in any round" myth. In the 2012-2016 drafts 88 RB's were drafted from the 3rd round to the 7th round. Only 5 of those selections have rushed for 1000 yards in a season at least once so far. In that same time 17 RB's were taken in the 1st and 2nd round and 10 of them have rushed for 1000 yards at least once.

That means if selecting a RB between the 3rd-7th round you have a 5.7% chance of finding a 1000 yard rusher. If you draft a RB in the 1st or 2nd round you have a 59% chance of finding a 1000 yard rusher. So the guys who say, "we'll just take a RB in the 3rd or 4th round and we'll be fine" that's not realistic. The reality is if you don't take one in the 1st or 2nd round chances are you're wasting a draft pick. 

[jgb]

It’s because most humans confuse antecdotes for statistics. This is also why PowerBall is so popular.

[King P]

Jets fans talk about how you can find a RB anywhere, yet we had a 4th round RB in Powell & a 6th round RB in McGuire. And neither of them moved the needle for us

[Philc1]

The real RB myth is that you need to spend $100 million free agency and first or second round picks on that position 

[New York Mick]

13 minutes ago, King P said:

Jets fans talk about how you can find a RB anywhere, yet we had a 4th round RB in Powell & a 6th round RB in McGuire. And neither of them moved the needle for us

They’ve only taken 4 RBs earlier in the last 30 years  

Vick - 1st RD

Thomas - 1st RD 2nd overall

Jordan - 2nd RD

Greene - 3rd RD

 

[Matt39]

1 minute ago, New York Mick said:

They’ve only taken 4 RBs earlier in the last 30 years  

Vick - 1st RD

Thomas - 1st RD 2nd overall

Jordan - 2nd RD

Greene - 3rd RD

 

Insane

[bealeb319]

Your statistics did not disprove the statement though it proved it. You can get a rb in any round just have to be lucky. Arian foster was a udfa he was pretty good.

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[jgb]

2 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

Your statistics did not disprove the statement though it proved it. You can get a rb in any round just have to be lucky. Arian foster was a udfa he was pretty good.

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

“Just be lucky.” Damn why didn’t Jets think of that??

[bigalbarracuda]

How many 1000-yard rushers for RBs taken in rounds 1-2 from 2012-2016

• 2012 - Doug Martin and David Wilson -- Isaiah Pead, Lamichael James
• 2013 - No Rd1 -- Giovani Bernard, Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Christine Michael
• 2014 - No Rd1 - Bishop Sankey, Jeremy Hill, Carlos Hyde,
• 2015 - Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon -- TJ Yeldon, Ameer Abdullah
• 2016 - Zeke Elliot -- Derrick Henry

The argument is you don't have to spend a top pick, if solid value falls to you in Round 2 then go for it... 2017 for example: Kamara, Hunt, Conner were all 3rd rounders.

 

 

[UnitedWhofans]

It also can apply to FA, hence the Bell question

[King P]

2 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

Your statistics did not disprove the statement though it proved it. You can get a rb in any round just have to be lucky. Arian foster was a udfa he was pretty good.

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

The problem is that it's specifically used for RBs to make it seem like you could find an RB in any round, so easy.

What you said about RBs could apply to any position. For example: "You can get a QB in any round, you just have to be lucky. Romo was a UDFA, he was pretty good. Brady was drafted in the 6th, he's one of the greatest of all time"

[KINGDIRK]

8 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

They’ve only taken 4 RBs earlier in the last 30 years  

Vick - 1st RD

Thomas - 1st RD 2nd overall

Jordan - 2nd RD

Greene - 3rd RD

 

Blair Thomas. Man he was supposed to awesome

[choon328]

5 minutes ago, bigalbarracuda said:

How many 1000-yard rushers for RBs taken in rounds 1-2 from 2012-2016

• 2012 - Doug Martin and David Wilson -- Isaiah Pead, Lamichael James
• 2013 - No Rd1 -- Giovani Bernard, Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Christine Michael
• 2014 - No Rd1 - Bishop Sankey, Jeremy Hill, Carlos Hyde,
• 2015 - Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon -- TJ Yeldon, Ameer Abdullah
• 2016 - Zeke Elliot -- Derrick Henry

The argument is you don't have to spend a top pick, if solid value falls to you in Round 2 then go for it... 2017 for example: Kamara, Hunt, Conner were all 3rd rounders.

 

 

Add Doug Martin, Jeremy Hill, Derrick Henry and Eddie Lacy to the 1000 yard rushing club as well.

[New York Mick]

5 minutes ago, KINGDIRK said:

Blair Thomas. Man he was supposed to awesome

I thought for sure he was going to be a stud. I bought his jersey and a bunch of his cards. 

[CTM]

35 minutes ago, jgb said:

It’s because most humans confuse antecdotes for statistics. This is also why PowerBall is so popular.

PC way of saying aggressively innumerate

[bealeb319]

The problem is that it's specifically used for RBs to make it seem like you could find an RB in any round, so easy.
What you said about RBs could apply to any position. For example: "You can get a QB in any round, you just have to be lucky. Romo was a UDFA, he was pretty good. Brady was drafted in the 6th, he's one of the greatest of all time"

Exactally. If you get lucky you can find quality players at any position in any round it is why so many teams take a bpa approach to drafting.

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[Bleedin Green]

13 hours ago, choon328 said:

Add Doug Martin, Jeremy Hill, Derrick Henry and Eddie Lacy to the 1000 yard rushing club as well.

Those examples actually show the flawed logic in using the line of a player having ever been a 1000 yard rusher as the determinant for success.  For someone who spends his entire professional career working with statistics, I fully appreciate the significance they can have, but there can also be a great misinterpretation that goes along with them, leading to questionable conclusions.

A brief glance can tell you that the 1000 yards rushing for some of these players was in part being driven by their teams attempting to justify spending a first round pick on a RB.  However, just because they gave a mediocre RB countless number of carries to get them up to that total, despite things such as a poor YPC, doesn't make that high selection a better one than the mid-round pick that's making bigger plays on fewer attempts as part of a committee.

I don't think anyone truly believes you'll easily find a great RB with any pick in the draft, but it's rather a question if the position is worth an extremely high investment when it has the shortest shelf-life in the league these days, is not the supposed sure-fire slam dunk some try to pretend it is at the top of the draft (as some of the other names listed shows), and ultimately in today's passing-driven NFL, continues to see changes that make the idea having that one lead guy at RB a (relatively) decreasing value in the success of an offense.  There were only nine 1000 yard rushers in the league this past season, which is way down from what it used to be, and it's certainly not because of a lack of talent at the position.

[Tony MaC]

1 hour ago, New York Mick said:

They’ve only taken 4 RBs earlier in the last 30 years  

Vick - 1st RD

Thomas - 1st RD 2nd overall

Jordan - 2nd RD

Greene - 3rd RD

 

I had known that the team was reluctant to take RB's in the draft of late, let alone high, but I had no idea it ran that deep. 

[sourceworx]

2 hours ago, New York Mick said:

They’ve only taken 4 RBs earlier in the last 30 years  

Vick - 1st RD

Thomas - 1st RD 2nd overall

Jordan - 2nd RD

Greene - 3rd RD

 

They gave up a first round pick for Curtis Martin.

[joenamathwouldn'tcry]

Maybe the latest  "Genius of the Month Club" member Matt Nagy, coach of the Bears, should consider this before throwing away Jordan Howard like yesterday's news.  Howard a former 5th round pick, has had years of  1,313, 1,122, and 935 yards rushing  in his first three years In the league.  Now they are "shopping" him because of  dwindling YPC averages.  Maybe it's the way he's being used, that's the root of the problem?

[New York Mick]

3 minutes ago, sourceworx said:

They gave up a first round pick for Curtis Martin.

He had 3 years in the league and 2 pro bowls. That’s a little different. 

[BornJetsFan1983]

Yeah you have to spend draft capital  on skill positions like RB QB pass rusher at a premium -rd 1 2 3 etc, sure you can get lucky any round but you have to take your shots. I'm tired of not picking offense 

[jgb]

39 minutes ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

Yeah you have to spend draft capital  on skill positions like RB QB pass rusher at a premium -rd 1 2 3 etc, sure you can get lucky any round but you have to take your shots. I'm tired of not picking offense 

I think what you need to do is actually hit on some draft picks. Macc has been awful. 

[PCP63]

It's not a bad idea to draft them high because you can find good ones in lower rounds. Rather, you overpay for the position, they get hurt very often, and you also have to look at opportunity cost. Good running back that averages 13 games a season and crap wide receiver vs. good wide receiver and decent running back. 

 

Only backs I'd draft high are guys that are deceptively elusive, like Mike Alstott. That running style lends itself to longevity. 

[#27TheDominator]

I think the Jets haven't drafted RBs high for e number of reasons beyond a philosophy that they aren't important.  They gave a 1st for Martin and that was the starter for 8 years  With that trade (and subsequent contract) why draft another high?  They swapped 2nds with the Bears for Thomas Jones.  That swap equated with a pick at the top of the 3rd.  Then they paid for Tomlinson - though that was a hedge against Greene being able to carry the load.  The traded 4th rounders for Chris Ivory and Kevan Barlow with varying levels of success.  

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, joenamathwouldn'tcry said:

Maybe the latest  "Genius of the Month Club" member Matt Nagy, coach of the Bears, should consider this before throwing away Jordan Howard like yesterday's news.  Howard a former 5th round pick, has had years of  1,313, 1,122, and 935 yards rushing  in his first three years In the league.  Now they are "shopping" him because of  dwindling YPC averages.  Maybe it's the way he's being used, that's the root of the problem?

Why?  Their offense was pretty good the way it was.  The aren't throwing him away, they are trying to get some assets for a guy that maybe isn't the best fit for what they want to do.  Howard is in the last year of his contract, it's no longer the super cheap 5th round deal because he made the escalators, but it is still cheap enough that they can get something for him.  Better a pick now, than waiting for a potential comp pick in 2021.

[joenamathwouldn'tcry]

6 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Why?  Their offense was pretty good the way it was.  The aren't throwing him away, they are trying to get some assets for a guy that maybe isn't the best fit for what they want to do.  Howard is in the last year of his contract, it's no longer the super cheap 5th round deal because he made the escalators, but it is still cheap enough that they can get something for him.  Better a pick now, than waiting for a potential comp pick in 2021.

You're right.  My point was aimed at those who called Howard a useless Jag when his name was brought up as a potential acquisition on a prior thread.  I was trying to reinforce his worth and standing, by posting his draft position and achievements within the guidelines cited by the OP in this thread.

My other point was that seeing that the Bears offense also features Trubisky who runs often, and Tarik Cohen who has a completely different style than Howard, I find it curious that his contributions are being dismissed in that offense.  You have to run the ball between the tackles sometimes, don't you?

[joenamathwouldn'tcry]

46 minutes ago, PCP63 said:

It's not a bad idea to draft them high because you can find good ones in lower rounds. Rather, you overpay for the position, they get hurt very often, and you also have to look at opportunity cost. Good running back that averages 13 games a season and crap wide receiver vs. good wide receiver and decent running back. 

 

Only backs I'd draft high are guys that are deceptively elusive, like Mike Alstott. That running style lends itself to longevity. 

Mike Alstott was about as elusive as a freight train.  He was a fullback for G-d's sakes. His running style was to seek and destroy. The reason for his longevity was due to the fact that he was a MOOSE!

[sourceworx]

5 hours ago, New York Mick said:

He had 3 years in the league and 2 pro bowls. That’s a little different. 

Agree. But still it's valuable draft capital spent on a RB.

[#27TheDominator]

8 hours ago, joenamathwouldn'tcry said:

You're right.  My point was aimed at those who called Howard a useless Jag when his name was brought up as a potential acquisition on a prior thread.  I was trying to reinforce his worth and standing, by posting his draft position and achievements within the guidelines cited by the OP in this thread.

My other point was that seeing that the Bears offense also features Trubisky who runs often, and Tarik Cohen who has a completely different style than Howard, I find it curious that his contributions are being dismissed in that offense.  You have to run the ball between the tackles sometimes, don't you?

His ypc were pretty poor.  Nagy has been with Reid for a long time.  I don't think of Hunt or McCoy as between the tackles guys, but they could do it. I'm guessing they would like somebody a little more versatile.  Howard did have 9 TDs last year.  Thing is, if you can spin Howard for a higher pick, maybe 2nd day, you can probably save the $2M and find somebody for short yardage cheaper, that you will have contract control over  beyond 2019.  They can look for a later round compliment to Cohen, and failing that guys like Legarrette Blount fill that void quite well and just as cheap as Howard.   

[slats]

RB non-myths: They have the shortest career in a league notorious for short careers and they're generally cheap in free agency. Nine RBs rushed for 1000 yards last year, only three of them were in the playoffs. The LA Rams rode their premier RB to the Super Bowl, and their whole offense broke down when he did.

I'd rather go with the RB by committee approach with a few interchangeable parts and an emphasis on being able to catch the football. It's not a position I'd ever target with a high pick. 

 

[themeangreenkillingmachine]

12 hours ago, choon328 said:

Add Doug Martin, Jeremy Hill, Derrick Henry and Eddie Lacy to the 1000 yard rushing club as well.

Aside from Henry, how are those guys faring now? 

Another argument can be made is that 1st Rd picks are given more of an opportunity because of the investment the team made in them. They'll be given 250+ carries despite averaging no more than 4.0 ypc. Meanwhile late Rd picks can average 5.0 ypc but never get more than 150 carries. 

I'm sure if Bilall Powell ever got 250+ carries and could stay healthy, he would have been a 1000 yard back. (Excluding his first 3 seasons (before he blossomed)) 

[Savage69]

19 minutes ago, themeangreenkillingmachine said:

Aside from Henry, how are those guys faring now? 

Another argument can be made is that 1st Rd picks are given more of an opportunity because of the investment the team made in them. They'll be given 250+ carries despite averaging no more than 4.0 ypc. Meanwhile late Rd picks can average 5.0 ypc but never get more than 150 carries. 

I'm sure if Bilall Powell ever got 250+ carries and could stay healthy, he would have been a 1000 yard back. (Excluding his first 3 seasons (before he blossomed)) 

Bingo it's all about the carries. Cumar in his first 6 seasons was under 4 ypc half the time but he was was avg 335 carries a year.. When Jordan was drafted he only got 3 to 4 carries a game in his time with the Jets. The acquisition of both Parcells and Martin cost the Jets a bunch..  If the picks the Patriots receive from the Martin signing are combined with the picks they received for Parcells's leaving New England to join the Jets, then the Patriots will have received two in the first round, one in the second, two in the third and one in the fourth from the Jets. Was it really worth it??  https://www.nytimes.com/1998/03/26/sports/pro-football-jets-get-martin-but-the-deal-is-under-scrutiny.html

[jeremy2020]

How many teams that selected those RBs had 1000 yard seasons? The point of "you can take a RB anywhere" isn't that you take 1 guy who gets 1000 yards...it's that you have 2 500 yard guys.

[CrazyCarl40]

1 hour ago, slats said:

RB non-myths: They have the shortest career in a league notorious for short careers and they're generally cheap in free agency. Nine RBs rushed for 1000 yards last year, only three of them were in the playoffs. The LA Rams rode their premier RB to the Super Bowl, and their whole offense broke down when he did.

I'd rather go with the RB by committee approach with a few interchangeable parts and an emphasis on being able to catch the football. It's not a position I'd ever target with a high pick. 

 

This. The real myth is that a RB needs to rush for 1,000 yards to be successful. I’d rather that RB have over 1,000 scrimmage yards. And those guys can be found in rounds 3-7 easily. It’s done every year.