Jets are now the #1 run defense in the league

[JustInFudge]

Impressive considering they are starting street free agents at LBer.

[Gibby]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I'm interested in seeing how they stack up against the Ravens in a few weeks. As much as the Ravens were a bad match-up for the Pats - they may be a good match-up for the Jets. Could be a surprisingly winnable game for us.

I am not entirely confident about that because of how different that Ravens run game is compared to the league. 

The Ravens will likely beat us by 4-5 touchdowns.

[Barry McCockinner]

27 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Rush ranks aren't the best metric to use because teams have been able to get big leads on us and run the ball a lot in the 2nd half over the years.

 

DVOA tells a very different story:  

 

2018:  21st

2017:  11th

2016:  1st

2015:  1st

2014:  11th

2013:  2nd

2012:  15th

2011:  4th

2010:  2nd

2009:  7th

Good point but considering how this season has gone our run D must be off the charts.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Good point but considering how this season has gone our run D must be off the charts.

 

Thru Nov 12, it was # 2 behind the Bucs.  That doesn't factor in the Redskins game.  I imagine that will get updated some time tomorrow.  

[TNJet]

1 hour ago, DMan77 said:

Outside of McLendon (33) the DL is young too... Williams (21), Anderson (28), Shepard(26), and the breakout star of the group, Kyle Phillips(22)...

Good things! 

Fatukasi 24. Beast.

[BUM-KNEE]

21 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And again, I tell you you're wrong.  Making an offense "one dimensional" doesn't nearly have the impact you think it does.  Because stopping the pass even when you KNOW teams are passing is very, very difficult without quality personnel in place. 

When QB's have time to throw because you have no pass rush, even bad ones can look like Montana.  When your secondary blows, even bad QB's can pick on your # 2 corner all day long.  

Ok chief, if you DONT stop the run, you are in for a loooong day. Once the run is established, that team controls the tempo of the game, and controls the LOS. 

Obviously you have to stop the pass....but I'm not wrong at all in saying you have to stop the run as well. 

So far in 2019 the league is about 44% run plays to 55% pass plays. Why disregard the run?

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, BUM-KNEE said:

Ok chief, if you DONT stop the run, you are in for a loooong day. Once the run is established, that team controls the tempo of the game, and controls the LOS. 

Obviously you have to stop the pass....but I'm not wrong at all in saying you have to stop the run as well. 

So far in 2019 the league is about 44% run plays to 55% pass plays. Why disregard the run?

 

I'm not saying run defense doesn't matter at all.  But I am saying that having a poor pass defense can't be "saved" by stopping the run.  If we were middle of the pack in both rush and pass defense, our D would be significantly better than being top 5 against the run but bottom 5 against the pass.  

[Barry McCockinner]

8 minutes ago, Gibby said:

The Ravens will likely beat us by 4-5 touchdowns.

I wouldn't be surprised if they did - but I think it may be a much closer game if our offense is competent that week.

[Jet Life]

Thats a start. We should have a really good D next year with an edge and some corner help (if healthy). Time to Douglas to invest heavily in OL and offense, our real problem

[rangerous]

58 minutes ago, prime21 said:

This is because our opponents look at our secondary and turnover ratio and come up with a heavy passing scheme.  Hence the 7 losses.

the losses aren't all on the defense.  it helps when a team can score points.

[BUM-KNEE]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

I'm not saying run defense doesn't matter at all.  But I am saying that having a poor pass defense can't be "saved" by stopping the run.  If we were middle of the pack in both rush and pass defense, our D would be significantly better than being top 5 against the run but bottom 5 against the pass.  

That's why my original post you quoted said "adjust to stop the passing game you know is coming". I didn't say stopping the run helps a piss poor secondary. It does afford the DC to get more creative with stopping what he knows is coming though. 

[Gibby]

6 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I wouldn't be surprised if they did - but I think it may be a much closer game if our offense is competent that week.

Perhaps. They just look real good right now. They really have that offense rolling.

[JoJoTownsell1]

43 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I don't overvalue cherry picked stats vs. the other worst teams in the NFL to support a narrative.

The year-long numbers are who we are.  

As I said above, winning, in strong fashion and led by a productive offense, would go a long way to shifting cynicism that the last two weeks were just the truly bad beating up on the slightly worse.

Beat the Raiders and score 30 doing so.  Then beat the equally horrible Bengals by 20+ points.

Then we can talk.

I don't overvalue rankings that include a 3rd string QB that is now out of the league.

I agree, the last two weeks, while nice, mean nothing if we can't keep it up.

In the Twitter, hot take, world everyone wants to make absolute judgements on limited data. While 2 games is limited, so is 10 games. Just ask those people who were killing Shanahan last year and calling Matt Nagy a genius. 

[BurnleyJet]

59 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Most defenses are good when they can turn the opponent one-dimensional. Not the Jets, our opponent’s QB’s eyes light up when being told he’ll need to pass to win.

#NoEdgeRush

#NoCornerbacks

 

Blessuan Austin says Hi ?

[C Mart]

1 hour ago, prime21 said:

This is because our opponents look at our secondary and turnover ratio and come up with a heavy passing scheme.  Hence the 7 losses.

So why did Wash try to run it 20 times yesterday? Barkley 13 times the week before?  Dolphins 19 times?

[Jetsfan80]

DVOA Run Defense and team W-L record:

 

2019:  2nd (3-7)

2018:  21st  (4-12)

2017:  11th  (5-11)

2016:  1st  (5-11)

2015:  1st (10-6)

2014:  11th (4-12)

2013:  2nd (8-8)

2012:  15th (6-10)

2011:  4th (8-8)

2010:  2nd (11-5)

 

So we've had 5 top 5 finishes in run defense this decade, and are headed for a 6th.  In those years, the team went 32-32.  This year we have the # 2 run defense thus far, and are 3-7.  

By the way, that 2013 team that went 8-8 was -97 in the NFL, 5th worst in the league.  

When you use all 10 seasons, our run D has ranked 7th in DVOA, on average, in that span.  Our record this decade is 64-90 (.416).

A strong run defense doesn't seem to have much of a positive impact in the W/L column.  

[southtown24th]

really?

So Quinnen Williams is doing something right.

[jetstream23]

1 hour ago, DMan77 said:

Outside of McLendon (33) the DL is young too... Williams (21), Anderson (28), Shepard(26), and the breakout star of the group, Kyle Phillips(22)...

Good things! 

Should be relatively cheap over the next couple years as well, right?  I think Anderson might be the most expensive of the bunch on a long-term deal and even though QW isn't cheap he's on a longterm rookie deal.  Phillips, Fatukasi and Shepherd are probably the guys who the front office will have to give serious though too.  We don't want to overpay for one-year wonders but retaining guys the Jets have actually been smart in acquiring is key to building this team.

[ZachEY]

1 hour ago, prime21 said:

This is because our opponents look at our secondary and turnover ratio and come up with a heavy passing scheme.  Hence the 7 losses.

Yeah, I’d want to see our yards per carry against before getting terribly excited about this.  Not sure we’d still be #1.

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, jetstream23 said:

Should be relatively cheap over the next couple years as well, right?  I think Anderson might be the most expensive of the bunch on a long-term deal and even though QW isn't cheap he's on a longterm rookie deal.  Phillips, Fatukasi and Shepherd are probably the guys who the front office will have to give serious though too.  We don't want to overpay for one-year wonders but retaining guys the Jets have actually been smart in acquiring is key to building this team.

 

It's almost as if you don't need to invest significant draft capital into run-stopping DT's/3-4 DE's.

Weird.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, TeddEY said:

Yeah, I’d want to see our yards per carry against before getting terribly excited about this.  Not sure we’d still be #1.

Thru Nov 12, per DVOA:

Run Defense:  # 2

Pass Defense:  # 24

We can all guess which of those 2 rankings has more of an impact on the W/L column.  

[jetstream23]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I'm interested in seeing how they stack up against the Ravens in a few weeks. As much as the Ravens were a bad match-up for the Pats - they may be a good match-up for the Jets. Could be a surprisingly winnable game for us.

I am not entirely confident about that because of how different that Ravens run game is compared to the league. 

I have very, very low confidence that the Jets will be able to keep it close anywhere beyond half-time.  The Ravens are one of the Top 3 teams in the NFL right now.  I do agree that the Jets might match-up well in terms of Run D vs. a run-first team like Baltimore, even if that rush offense is built around a running QB.  I'd trust that Gregg Williams can at least come up with something that might slow them down a bit and maybe delay the inevitable.  But my guess is that it would take a LOT of resources up front including "the NFL's best box Safety" to really inhibit Baltimore.

If I had to make a prediction it would be that we do reasonably well against the run but, as usual, pay for it by giving up a lot in the passing game.  This could be Lamar's big passing game of the year as the Jets try to contain the rush.

Ravens 27

Jets 10

[jetstream23]

12 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

Blessuan Austin says Hi ?

Fingers crossed, man. He’s off to a good start but I hope this does not end up a similar story to Cashman. 

[jetstream23]

14 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

DVOA Run Defense and team W-L record:

 

2019:  2nd (3-7)

2018:  21st  (4-12)

2017:  11th  (5-11)

2016:  1st  (5-11)

2015:  1st (10-6)

2014:  11th (4-12)

2013:  2nd (8-8)

2012:  15th (6-10)

2011:  4th (8-8)

2010:  2nd (11-5)

 

So we've had 5 top 5 finishes in run defense this decade, and are headed for a 6th.  In those years, the team went 32-32.  This year we have the # 2 run defense thus far, and are 3-7.  

By the way, that 2013 team that went 8-8 was -97 in the NFL, 5th worst in the league.  

When you use all 10 seasons, our run D has ranked 7th in DVOA, on average, in that span.  Our record this decade is 64-90 (.416).

A strong run defense doesn't seem to have much of a positive impact in the W/L column.  

A -97 in point differential only includes defense as half of the equation. The Jets have been inept on offense for a decade.

If you have the time, I would be interested to see Jets offensive rankings next to those win-loss records as well. 

[Joe W. Namath]

We really need to hope greg williams sticks around for next year.  A second year in the same system will be huge for these guys.

[jetstream23]

[jetstream23]

25 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

It's almost as if you don't need to invest significant draft capital into run-stopping DT's/3-4 DE's.

Weird.  

Simply based on the depth at the position I could argue the Jets don't need to use ANY Draft picks on D-Line in 2020 and 2021 if they stick with a 3-4.  All young guys (except McClendon), talented, several of them under contract for a few more years I believe.

OLine, CB, WR, Edge.....that's it....over and over for the next two years.  And, outside of Edge rusher I don't even think we need to draft Linebackers with what we have right now.  Under the radar guys like Hewitt, Cashman, etc. are turning out to be more than serviceable.  We just have to hope Mosley is back next year at 100%.  Williamson would be a bonus to have.

[CTM]

1 hour ago, TeddEY said:

Yeah, I’d want to see our yards per carry against before getting terribly excited about this.  Not sure we’d still be #1.

We are effective at stopping the run, it's just not nearly as important as stopping the pass 

[Barry McCockinner]

32 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I have very, very low confidence that the Jets will be able to keep it close anywhere beyond half-time.  The Ravens are one of the Top 3 teams in the NFL right now.  I do agree that the Jets might match-up well in terms of Run D vs. a run-first team like Baltimore, even if that rush offense is built around a running QB.  I'd trust that Gregg Williams can at least come up with something that might slow them down a bit and maybe delay the inevitable.  But my guess is that it would take a LOT of resources up front including "the NFL's best box Safety" to really inhibit Baltimore.

If I had to make a prediction it would be that we do reasonably well against the run but, as usual, pay for it by giving up a lot in the passing game.  This could be Lamar's big passing game of the year as the Jets try to contain the rush.

Ravens 27

Jets 10

Ravens are really good. I called them beating the Pats because of how well that offense matched up. I'm just saying it could be a good match-up for us if our offense can produce. Lamar is special though. Their defense is getting better too.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if they toasted us.

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

This team has had great run defense for years, does not help you win that much anymore.

Also we are doing with after dumping jag Leo and having our other top pick Dt be casper the ghost

Speaking of Casper, if someone wants to trade us a high 2nd or mid first for him I would be completely OK with that. He really adds very little. I said before the draft he was Leo 2.0 and nothing I have seen changes that opinion.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

A -97 in point differential only includes defense as half of the equation. The Jets have been inept on offense for a decade.

My point on that was not offense vs defense.  It was to demonstrate that the 2013 Jets were a fraud.  That team should have gone 4-12 based on the point differential.  

[Maxman]

Good job by Adam Gase hiring a staff that is so good against the run.

[JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF]

2 hours ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

What do you think our offense rankings are the last 2 weeks? 

There will be a much better analysis of the Offense that should be done AFTER the entire year is completed AND you have to REMOVE the 3 GAMES played by Luke Falk or you’re just getting data that isn’t honest going forward.  

I saw a post yesterday in which someone did some homework that stated that if you remove that 1 game abomination against New England where Darnold would have done better with wet tissue paper in front of him, you remove that game, Darnold’s QB Rating over the other 6 games he has played is Over 100.

Darnold is 3-4 right now while putting up 30+ points in all 3 wins.  There is also an argument to be made he could be 4-3 because of the D losing a 16-0 lead late in a game that should be statistically won 99% of the time, in the opening game he played with mono.  He has done this with a Bottom 3 Roster and although 2 of the wins are also against other bottom feeders, just wait for the dust to settle after ALL of the games have been played.  As bad as Washington is I think they have some quality players on their D.  Mark Sanchez probably doesn’t throw more than 1 TD against it nor probably Chad Pennington.

But put that aside.  Darnold’s trajectory is now definitely trending up again, and he is making some very high quality throws, the Ghosts appear to be gone, let’s see if that continues against the Raiders.

[T0mShane]

3 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

It’s good to beat a highly successful team like the Buccaneers in this clearly and obviously important-to-winning statistical category

[Patriot Killa]

3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

It’s good to beat a highly successful team like the Buccaneers in this clearly and obviously important-to-winning statistical category

A Bowles run defense to be exact. But definitely nice to beat on my chest about something.