Sam Darnold third highest pff grade since week 10

[#27TheDominator]

I have said this before.  One of Darnold's main assets was his ability to extend plays in the face of pressure and deliver quality throws off-platform (to use the phrase that is the current rage).  He should be able to deal with pressure better than most.  I don't think that the plan Gase uses schemes to limit pressure,it schemes to beat it. 

[JustInFudge]

41 minutes ago, CTM said:

The only ones making a determination now are legions of eye test yahoos who watch the highlight reel plays and determine hes elite. They either forget, ignore or excuse away all the bad stuff that the analytics are showing do in fact exist.

My position hasnt changed through any ups and downs, hes got a ton of raw ability but a long way to go learning the craft which is independant of the specific situation here 

Here are some fun facts about the NFL and fans and this conversation:

Players have good weeks and bad weeks.  Even the very bestest sometimes arent at their bestest.

Sometimes teams dont play well, even the good ones.  Bad teams especially, play up and down Football.  It's why, they are in fact, a bad team. 

Young players are highly inconsistent.  Young players that play on horrible teams, are even more susceptible to inconsistent play. Very few, if ever, overcome that factor and end up being successful.  The thought that these other guys who are performing well would be doing what they're doing if they were playing for the Jets is laughable.  

Sometimes (and many factors go into this) the other team is just better that day.  There used to be a slogan in the NFL, any given Sunday.  Often times, when you're a bad team, the other team doesnt have to be good to get your number on any given Sunday.  The reality is, the difference between an 0-11 Bengals team and a 4-7 Jets team was slim to none.  Both are terrible. 

The eye test, is just as effective as these stupid advanced statistics.  The "advanced statistics" you love tell me things like - DVOA has Dak Prescott as the best QB in the NFL, QBbase told me Bakery Mayflower is the best QB prospect of all time, PFF tells me that Rodgers and Mahomes arent top 10 QB's in the NFL and Dwayne Haskins is better than Sam Darnold and Josh Allen.  They're cool for conversation but they're extremely flawed and ultimately stupid. 

Opinions, are like assholes.  We've all got different kinds.  It's like the people saying, "I havent seen anything elite or special from Sam Darnold" think they're speaking in fact.  Well guess what, I say that I have seen elite and special play from him.  Bias plays a factor on both sides.  You want to be right about Sam being a bust, then you havent seen anything special.  I want Sam to be good, so I have seen something special. 

Fans are irrational.  They're week to week evaluators when they mostly have no clue what they're watching.  Reality is, that's not how the NFL works.  You dont go from being a god one week, to a goat the next.  It's always somewhere in between. 

Fans are shallow.  Their minds are weak.  They point to 2 people 99% of the time; QB and HC.  Yet, in our example as Jets fans, we like to talk about how our last GM was the worst ever and we have the worst roster in the league but we also have expectations that our very young QB should overcome all of that and be producing to make advanced statistics happy because they feel validation from seeing some moronic ranking spit out by some dudes using some flawed equation that doesnt actually tell you anything you probably didnt already know. 

I understand fans need something to talk about and want to desperately be right on the interwebz but the reality here is; the team is going to go all in on Sam Darnold and rightfully so.  It's best that everyone get used to it and be excited about having the best QB prospect in the building we've ever had in my lifetime. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, JiF said:

QBbase told me Bakery Mayflower is the best QB prospect of all time, PFF tells me that Rodgers and Mahomes arent top 10 QB's in the NFL and Dwayne Haskins is better than Sam Darnold and Josh Allen.  They're cool for conversation but they're extremely flawed and ultimately stupid. 

QBase hits on their QB evaluations at a 70+ % clip.  70+ % for the most difficult position to evaluate in all of pro sports.

Find me anyone else who is capable of doing that.  

[JustInFudge]

55 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

I think his style of play requires a top tier arm, and I don't think he has it.

I mean, just look at the all-mighty eye test.  Did we not see a meaningful difference between Darnold and Dalton last week?

I'm also worried that this "fine tuning" is a much bigger deal than you're making it out to be, but I agree.  Learning to play the position is the biggest issue right now.

I personally, did not see a meaningful difference between the 2.  What I saw was a veteran getting all the time in the world throwing to wide open WR's vs. a kid getting zero time throwing to covered WR's.  Both suffered some bad drops but other than that...just one dude had the time to make plays and the other didnt.  Statistically, Dalton threw for 30 more yards and 1 TD on 6 less completions.  I dont see how this was a drastic difference in performance other than 1 team was considerably better than the other and the QB benefited from that fact. 

Just like when I saw Sam Darnold play Dak Prescott and Derek Carr, I thought the Jets had the significantly better QB.  Funny how that works. 

 

 

[JustInFudge]

19 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

QBase hits on their QB evaluations at a 70+ % clip.  70+ % for the most difficult position to evaluate in all of pro sports.

Find me anyone else who is capable of doing that.  

It's literally no different than Kipers top 5 each year but this is neat!!!

[Philc1]

Yeah but does PFF know Darnold = Pat Ramsey?

[ZachEY]

26 minutes ago, JiF said:

I personally, did not see a meaningful difference between the 2.  What I saw was a veteran getting all the time in the world throwing to wide open WR's vs. a kid getting zero time throwing to covered WR's.  Both suffered some bad drops but other than that...just one dude had the time to make plays and the other didnt.  Statistically, Dalton threw for 30 more yards and 1 TD on 6 less completions.  I dont see how this was a drastic difference in performance other than 1 team was considerably better than the other and the QB benefited from that fact. 

 Just like when I saw Sam Darnold play Dak Prescott and Derek Carr, I thought the Jets had the significantly better QB.  Funny how that works. 

 

 

I meant, specifically, with velocity on throws.  It was night and day to me.

[Warfish]

2 hours ago, CTM said:

The only ones making a determination now are legions of eye test yahoos who watch the highlight reel plays and determine hes elite. They either forget, ignore or excuse away all the bad stuff that the analytics are showing do in fact exist.

My position hasnt changed through any ups and downs, hes got a ton of raw ability but a long way to go learning the craft which is independant of the specific situation here 

Fan #1 - DID YOU SEE THAT ELITE SPECIAL THROW SAM JUST MADE!!!!!

Fan #2 - But he was 10 for 30 for 180 yards, only scored 3 points, and had two turnovers....

Fan #1 - I BELIEVE WHAT I SEE, HE IS ELITE THROWER NOW!!!!!  STATS AND METRICS DON'T MATTER, TRUST WHAT YOU SEE!!!!!

[Warfish]

43 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Yeah but does PFF know Darnold = Pat Ramsey?

I'm sure they know his statline is a mirror (in many categories) to Ramsey thru 22/23 games.

After all, you know that isn't an opinion, right, it's the two players actual statlines of production.

I wonder if they know Sam is special and elite....

[JustInFudge]

19 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

I meant, specifically, with velocity on throws.  It was night and day to me.

Interesting, I didnt really notice it.  Just watched some highlights to see if I could see a difference and I really dont.  I mean, a few throws Dalton fired off with nice velocity, some were touch and timing throws.  Pretty much the same thing I saw watching Sam.

[Philc1]

Just now, Warfish said:

I'm sure they know his statline is a mirror (in many categories) to Ramsey.

I wonder if they know Sam is special and elite....

[Warfish]

26 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

You can post Fitz as often as you want, Geno supporters will never be "right" on that old debate.  Fitz was better before, he was better than Geno for us, and he's better than Geno today.  Geno Fans were stupid and ignorant fans, and one day they'll have to get over exactly how deeply wrong they were.  Supporting Fitz > Geno was the right call.

[lounap23]

4 hours ago, Y3k said:

The further we get from the game the easier it is for trolls to try and spin this as a bad game for Darnold. There is a reason no one was saying this immediately after the game...

the only thing I saw from Sam which he should work on, is that the bengals consistently were giving up huge lanes for him to run and he didn’t take it. 

other than that, he played a clean game. The Robby and berrios drops were huge. 

This right here was the one thing that had me livid about Sam on Sunday and I mentioned it somewhere.   The only mistakes Sam made was not run when he had lanes and tried to make a play down field like 4 or 5 times.  And even though he should have ran on 2 of the passes he had perfect placement for the WR to make the play and they didn't.  

 

[ZachEY]

Just now, JiF said:

Interesting, I didnt really notice it.  Just watched some highlights to see if I could see a difference and I really dont.  I mean, a few throws Dalton fired off with nice velocity, some were touch and timing throws.  Pretty much the same thing I saw watching Sam.

It could be purely because Sam rarely sets his feet and delivers, but I just don't see a guy with a big arm.  I think his arm is fine by the way, except for the fact that he's reckless with the ball at times, and to be successful in the Favre mold, you need the requisite arm.  It's also fair to say I don't see other QBs throwing deep as often as I see Sam throwing deep, because I watch more Jets, but his deep ball accuracy seems problematic to me.

I think there are concerns, I don't think fixing the Offensive line is the end-all be-all of those concerns, and I think that this idea is only a radical notion among a group of people who've already dubbed him as "flashing elite play."

[JustInFudge]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Fan #1 - DID YOU SEE THAT ELITE SPECIAL THROW SAM JUST MADE!!!!!

Fan #2 - But he was 10 for 30 for 180 yards, only scored 3 points, and had two turnovers....

Fan #1 - I BELIEVE WHAT I SEE, HE IS ELITE THROWER NOW!!!!!  STATS AND METRICS DON'T MATTER, TRUST WHAT YOU SEE!!!!!

What if, both fan #1 and fan #2 are right in this scenario and it was elite/special play despite a poor overall performance on that day?  And what if those plays happen in a game where he completed 70% of his passes for 300+ yard and 3 TD's, like he did vs. the Raiders?   Is fan #1 still an idiot or do we only save those for when it fits your narrative? 

[Smashmouth]

Bottom line ..we have yet another inconsistent QB and its probably going to stay that way. If the guy can have a great game then why can't he be consistently good ? IMHO we will be looking for a new QB sooner rather than later.... He gets another year to prove consistency but any chance of him being the Elite guy some though he was is not happening.

[Philc1]

5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

You can post Fitz as often as you want, Geno supporters will never be "right" on that old debate.  Fitz was better before, he was better than Geno for us, and he's better than Geno today.  Geno Fans were stupid and ignorant fans, and one day they'll have to get over exactly how deeply wrong they were.

No one thinks Darnold is Patrick Ramsey except you and that’s because you claimed before the draft Darnold would have more interceptions than touchdown passes as a pro

 

I saw Ramsey play he was a poor man’s Case Keenum who had a very good OL and Stephen Davis running the ball for him back when running backs mattered

[section314]

1 minute ago, Smashmouth said:

Bottom line ..we have yet another inconsistent QB and its probably going to stay that way. If the guy can have a great game then why can't he be consistently good ? IMHO we will be looking for a new QB sooner rather than later.... He gets another year to prove consistency but any chance of him being the Elite guy some though he was is not happening.

I hope Max has a good filing system. This classic will need to be pulled out soon.

[CTM]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

Here are some fun facts about the NFL and fans and this conversation:

Players have good weeks and bad weeks.  Even the very bestest sometimes arent at their bestest.

Sometimes teams dont play well, even the good ones.  Bad teams especially, play up and down Football.  It's why, they are in fact, a bad team. 

Young players are highly inconsistent.  Young players that play on horrible teams, are even more susceptible to inconsistent play. Very few, if ever, overcome that factor and end up being successful.  The thought that these other guys who are performing well would be doing what they're doing if they were playing for the Jets is laughable.  

Sometimes (and many factors go into this) the other team is just better that day.  There used to be a slogan in the NFL, any given Sunday.  Often times, when you're a bad team, the other team doesnt have to be good to get your number on any given Sunday.  The reality is, the difference between an 0-11 Bengals team and a 4-7 Jets team was slim to none.  Both are terrible. 

The eye test, is just as effective as these stupid advanced statistics.  The "advanced statistics" you love tell me things like - DVOA has Dak Prescott as the best QB in the NFL, QBbase told me Bakery Mayflower is the best QB prospect of all time, PFF tells me that Rodgers and Mahomes arent top 10 QB's in the NFL and Dwayne Haskins is better than Sam Darnold and Josh Allen.  They're cool for conversation but they're extremely flawed and ultimately stupid. 

Opinions, are like assholes.  We've all got different kinds.  It's like the people saying, "I havent seen anything elite or special from Sam Darnold" think they're speaking in fact.  Well guess what, I say that I have seen elite and special play from him.  Bias plays a factor on both sides.  You want to be right about Sam being a bust, then you havent seen anything special.  I want Sam to be good, so I have seen something special. 

Fans are irrational.  They're week to week evaluators when they mostly have no clue what they're watching.  Reality is, that's not how the NFL works.  You dont go from being a god one week, to a goat the next.  It's always somewhere in between. 

Fans are shallow.  Their minds are weak.  They point to 2 people 99% of the time; QB and HC.  Yet, in our example as Jets fans, we like to talk about how our last GM was the worst ever and we have the worst roster in the league but we also have expectations that our very young QB should overcome all of that and be producing to make advanced statistics happy because they feel validation from seeing some moronic ranking spit out by some dudes using some flawed equation that doesnt actually tell you anything you probably didnt already know. 

I understand fans need something to talk about and want to desperately be right on the interwebz but the reality here is; the team is going to go all in on Sam Darnold and rightfully so.  It's best that everyone get used to it and be excited about having the best QB prospect in the building we've ever had in my lifetime. 

This goblydygook is all fine and dandy but written by the same guy who was ready to move on from Sam in October and is now defending him. Stats dont do a 180 every month.

[Warfish]

23 minutes ago, JiF said:

What if, both fan #1 and fan #2 are right in this scenario and it was elite/special play despite a poor overall performance on that day?

i.e. My position all along?  

Sam has elite potential.  His makes infrequent exceptional, jaw-dropping throws.  He is worth developing and building around and supporting.

No hyperbole, no "special", no "greatness", no "better than Aaaron Rodgers today", no "way better than Dak right now" hysteria.  

He's a young QB with great potential and not so great performance or consistency overall, playing for a bad team that needs improved, especially on the O-line.  

Facts.  Rational analysis.  

By the way, for trolls like Phil, when you want to strawman what I think about Sam, go ahead and quote THIS post, because THIS is how I feel about Sam, not whatever dumb poo you try to peddle.

Quote

   Is fan #1 still an idiot or do we only save those for when it fits your narrative? 

Fan # 1 was never an idiot, for the record, just misguided. 

Such a fan was simply lacking in all forms of rational objectivity. judging the player only by the occasional flashes of good and ignoring any and all overall bad.

[BigRy56]

Homeboy is extraordinarily special and we are very lucky to have him. The sky is the limit

[14 in Green]

8 hours ago, Welp said:

So you've basically made up your mind on Darnold and anything negative just supports your theory and anything good that he does is an aberration.

I just find it odd when I read he doesn't elevate his supporting cast since in the games he's not played the Jets haven't won a game. He was throwing to players last year that aren't even in the league or active rosters this year and his #1 this year is easily a #2 at best or #3 on most teams and a TE that was a last min signing this year that got rewarded with a nice contract recently playing with Darnold.

I get we're in a results driven society and the expectations is for him to be a practically flawless superstar in his second year at 22 yrs old since that is why people call him a bust after every interception or almost int. But the fact is some times it takes time to develop into a really good QB, Drew Brees would be a bust in everyone's eyes here after his 3rd year. Ultimately the Jets really need to establish some sort of a foundation within the organization since everything is so disjointed right now it's hard to thrive and have long term success under these circumstances.

He was the third pick in the draft, not some 2nd or 3rd round development QB. The fact that we’re still talking about him this way concerns me. I don’t think a lot of us expected to be having these conversations at the end of his second season.

I don’t think he’s going to be a bad QB, I just don’t envision him as elite. I can see him being a starter for most of his career, and have his moments, ala a Andy Dalton.

I also feel that being drafted by a team like the Jets has made it harder for him, obviously. Like the Bengals, we’re  not good, and I don’t see that changing for a few years. It’s going to take a couple of years to build a good ol, and even then, it might never happen.

QBs on teams as bad as us always take a beating, and it’s very rare that they overcome taking them early in their career. I actually give Dalton credit for the career he’s had, and see him as a good comp for what Darnold will become.

[Irish Jet]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

Conversely, Darnold needs to throw a materially better pass when his burner WR has a step and half on his coverage.  Darnold throws that pass better, it's an easy catch and TD.  Darnold's pass was horribly, unintentionally, underthrown and awkward to catch.

Yes, it hit Anderson's hands.  Yes, he should catch it.  But the responsability for that drop is mostly on Darnold's poor pass.

I don’t agree. He certainly could throw a better pass, albeit it was very tough throw given there wasn't a lot of seperation. He shouldn’t need to which is precisely my point. 

I was watching the Baltimore-San Fran game almost at the same time Garoppolo gets a deep TD that was underthrown and in double coverage. Deebo Samuel just goes and makes the play that Robby couldn’t – Happy times for Jimmy and nothing but praise. Most deep balls in the NFL aren’t hitting guys in stride – Darnold has to improve generally (there are much worse examples than this) but that play was there to be made and any starting WR should be making it. I’ve defended Robby a lot too but he’s got serious issues with contested passes.
 

[Warfish]

11 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

No one thinks Darnold is Patrick Ramsey except you

Please save your strawmen.  I do not believe Sam is Ramsey.

I know (again, not opinion) that thru 22/23 games, their production is almost exactly the same.

As I said repeatedly, and as you ignored because you're not very bright, Sam is 1000x the prospect Ramsey ever was. 

Quote

and that’s because you claimed before the draft Darnold would have more interceptions than touchdown passes as a pro

I certainly questioned his accuracy and penchant for turnovers in college as a possible liability.

So far, he has 30 TD's and 25 INT's.  Looks like so far, I was correct to question him in this aspect.

Quote

I saw Ramsey play......

I highly doubt that.  Especially when you start calling Stephen Davis "great" that year and think the O-line was very good that year because it had a pair of "name" players you heard of on ESPN at some point.

[NYJ37/12]

15 hours ago, Untouchable said:

Why not judge with your eyes?

This is why I hate this analytics crap.

Boiling down athletics to a bunch of percentages and equations.

If you’re expecting Darnold to consistently look like Montana with this dogsh*t roster then I don’t know what to tell you.

He’s a 22 year old kid who exhibits elite traits throwing the football on one of the least talented teams in the league.

Build up the OL and give him another legit receiver besides Crowder and then you can more properly judge him.

Yes!

[Warfish]

Just now, Irish Jet said:

I don’t agree. He certainly could throw a better pass, albeit it was very tough throw given there wasn't a lot of seperation. He shouldn’t need to which is precisely my point. 

I was watching the Baltimore-San Fran game almost at the same time Garoppolo gets a deep TD that was underthrown and in double coverage. Deebo Samuel just goes and makes the play that Robby couldn’t – Happy times for Jimmy and nothing but praise. Most deep balls in the NFL aren’t hitting guys in stride – Darnold has to improve generally (there are much worse examples than this) but that play was there to be made and any starting WR should be making it. I’ve defended Robby a lot too but he’s got serious issues with contested passes.
 

Then we agree to disagree, but there is simply no argument where that was a well-thrown ball.  I'm not going to defend Anderson, I DON'T think he is a very good WR and have said so for years (unlike the former Anderlols lovers now turning on him to protect their mental image of Darnold).

He should have caught it.  Darnold should have not underthrown it.  This guy or that situation coulda shouldas are fantasy.  In this play, both guys screwed up.

[Philc1]

Just now, Warfish said:

Then we agree to disagree, but there is simply no argument where that was a well-thrown ball.  I'm not going to defend Anderson, I DON'T think he is a very good WR and have said so for years (unlike the former Anderlols lovers now turning on him to protect their mental image of Darnold).

He should have caught it.  Darnold should have not underthrown it.  This guy or that situation coulda shouldas are fantasy.  In this play, both guys screwed up.

Sam or Gus Frerotte?

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

 

I understand fans need something to talk about and want to desperately be right on the interwebz but the reality here is; the team is going to go all in on Sam Darnold and rightfully so.  It's best that everyone get used to it and be excited about having the best QB prospect in the building we've ever had in my lifetime. 

When the best QB prospect in our lifetime (fair enough) goes out and parties hard enough to make Page 6, a couple months after getting MONO... and then goes out and lays an absolute egg vs the worst passing defense in football... it's hard to be excited

this is Darnold in a nutshell by the way... he streaky AF, his fundementals are non-existent and the ridiculously poor coaching staff is in the process of ruining whatever talent he has. 

Why would they call WR screen 3x in a row for example. Did Dowell Loggains suffer a stroke on Sunday?  or maybe they don't trust 14 to make a quick read. Some of those sacks he had like 4 or 5 seconds back there... brain dead... not quite seeing ghosts level but it was not great 

 

Every USC QB ever has been in it for the poon, btw That's like 90% of the reason why anyone goes to USC.  Which is fine if you're Joe Willy, Sam Darnold is 8-14 as a starter he's not a professional at this point which is why it's hard to get excited 

[slats]

35 minutes ago, Warfish said:

You can post Fitz as often as you want, Geno supporters will never be "right" on that old debate.  Fitz was better before, he was better than Geno for us, and he's better than Geno today.  Geno Fans were stupid and ignorant fans, and one day they'll have to get over exactly how deeply wrong they were.  Supporting Fitz > Geno was the right call.

There were no Geno fans. There were people who thought it was stupid to name Fitzpatrick the starter when he wasn't under contract, and then give him $10M. Those people were right. 

[14 in Green]

1 hour ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

Tom Brady is Elite.

How does he look with ANY pressure?  I know it’s rare between his ability to read Ds, his quick release and the Pats allowed to Hold every play...but on those rare occasions the pressure gets home somewhat consistently during a game...Brady actually looks below Average.

You’re talking about Brady at what, 44 years old?

Come on, not the best comp for Sam, is he?

[Warfish]

8 minutes ago, slats said:

There were no Geno fans. There were people who thought it was stupid to name Fitzpatrick the starter when he wasn't under contract, and then give him $10M. Those people were right. 

The only other real-world option to Fitz that year was Geno, it was going to be one or the other.  And there were absolutely many Geno supports, they just can't face how deeply wrong they were.

Naming Fitz the starter and paying him a relatively low veteran QB salary was perfectly fine after he put up one of the best years a Jets QB ever produced, production wise (again, Jets Fans hate actual production but love guys who don't produce but get their pants twitching with hope).  The failure was not getting the deal done early, and that's on our now-fired GM.  But no, people who wanted to dump Fitz and start Geno weren't right and never will be.  So save the make believe revisionist "there were no Geno supporters" history slats, you picked the wrong QB, man up about it for once.

 

[CTM]

47 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

It could be purely because Sam rarely sets his feet and delivers,

Getting set and having consistant good mechanics is nerd sh*t, just like math. You dont need either 

 

[Matt39]

1 minute ago, CTM said:

Getting set and having consistant good mechanics is nerd sh*t, just like math. You dont need either 

 

 

[Scott Dierking]

46 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

It could be purely because Sam rarely sets his feet and delivers, but I just don't see a guy with a big arm.  I think his arm is fine by the way, except for the fact that he's reckless with the ball at times, and to be successful in the Favre mold, you need the requisite arm.  It's also fair to say I don't see other QBs throwing deep as often as I see Sam throwing deep, because I watch more Jets, but his deep ball accuracy seems problematic to me.

I think there are concerns, I don't think fixing the Offensive line is the end-all be-all of those concerns, and I think that this idea is only a radical notion among a group of people who've already dubbed him as "flashing elite play."

He does not have a deep arm, at least from what I have seen. I have seen him put extra oomph on the ball with intermediate routes, so I tend to believe arm strength is there.

I do know that Darnold worked with Jordan Palmer, in concert with Wilson Footballs in developing and perfecting a ball that measured spin rate ,velocity, etc, in order to gain maximum efficiency. I do see some of the byproduct of that. Maybe he has spent too much time in developing straight line velocity, and has not concentrated on deep out balls. 

Or, he does not have that ability.

 

[Warfish]

2 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Another example of an obviously poor underthrown ball......that the WR still should have caught.  Failure of both sides of the tandem.

No pressure at all, yet Sam is dancing around, happy happy feet, like Fred Astaire!