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RonaldJet

Sam Darnold third highest pff grade since week 10

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PFF is just another arbitrary metric (they have Dwayne Haskins graded average whereas ESPNs QBR has him rated as the worst passer in NFL history).

Despite grading out well over the past four weeks they still have Sam rated as one of the worst QBs in the NFL this season. Pretty much tells the story of his career so far. He has stretches where he plays terrific (and you think things have finally clicked), but the overall body of work sucks. 

The Darnold believers will tell you his coaching staff and supporting cast are holding him back. The Darnold skeptics like myself will cite serious flaws in his game which many NFL defenses can exploit. 

My prediction is after next year we will be looking for a new QB as the Sam Darnold experience will be defined:

2-Awesome Games

4-Quality Games 

4-Average Games 

4-Bad Games

2-Hideous Games

 

 

 

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as w/ us vs Raiders, early drops ended up really throwing the whole shebang off. Sam , imho, was ok.

question, did the DB get a piece of that sideline throw to Griffen? or just "distract" him.

Up to last week, we'd been pretty good with keeping the drops to a minimum.

Then a series of bad OL penalties. And a D that couldnt come up with a big play...and a classic SOJ loss.

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My biggest issues with Sam. his deep ball accuracy is terrible.  That pass to Robbie was under thrown, the pass to DT was overthrown.   The second problem is he will not run when necessary,  I do not  know if its the foot injury or if he is just afraid to get hit.  His short to intermediate game is OK.  He also can not press when things are not going well.  When he presses bad things happen.  It's like he is trying to score 14 points on one play. He had one of those moments on Sunday and the defender dropped the ball.  Would I call it a bad game no, more mediocre than bad.

If he comes out of the season after the illness with 20+ touchdowns and limits the TO's he may be on his way, he is still a baby in NFL years.  So lets see if he turns the corner in year 3 with better personnel in front of him.

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27 minutes ago, Green Truth said:

My biggest issues with Sam. his deep ball accuracy is terrible.  That pass to Robbie was under thrown, the pass to DT was overthrown.   The second problem is he will not run when necessary,  I do not  know if its the foot injury or if he is just afraid to get hit.  His short to intermediate game is OK.  He also can not press when things are not going well.  When he presses bad things happen.  It's like he is trying to score 14 points on one play. He had one of those moments on Sunday and the defender dropped the ball.  Would I call it a bad game no, more mediocre than bad.

If he comes out of the season after the illness with 20+ touchdowns and limits the TO's he may be on his way, he is still a baby in NFL years.  So lets see if he turns the corner in year 3 with better personnel in front of him.

In today’s NFL 90 percent of the throws are short to intermediate. The QBs job is to get the ball out quickly or extend the play until someone gets open. 

Deep balls are low percentage by nature. You are hoping for the PI as much as the completion. It’s a lot to ask a QB to throw a perfect pass 50+ yds down the field with a pass rush breathing down your neck. Does it happen? Sure, but even the best QBs only hit that throw 40 percent of the time in the NFL. Sometimes you get lucky and a guy is wide open,  but most of the time it’s up to the WRs to make a good play. 
 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, RonaldJet said:

In today’s NFL 90 percent of the throws are short to intermediate. The QBs job is to get the ball out quickly or extend the play until someone gets open. 

Deep balls are low percentage by nature. You are hoping for the PI as much as the completion. It’s a lot to ask a QB to throw a perfect pass 50+ yds down the field with a pass rush breathing down your neck. Does it happen? Sure, but even the best QBs only hit that throw 40 percent of the time in the NFL. Sometimes you get lucky and a guy is wide open,  but most of the time it’s up to the WRs to make a good play. 
 

 

 

But his deep ball is worse than I expected.  Not sure why. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, RonaldJet said:

PFF is just another arbitrary metric (they have Dwayne Haskins graded average whereas ESPNs QBR has him rated as the worst passer in NFL history).

Despite grading out well over the past four weeks they still have Sam rated as one of the worst QBs in the NFL this season. Pretty much tells the story of his career so far. He has stretches where he plays terrific (and you think things have finally clicked), but the overall body of work sucks. 

The Darnold believers will tell you his coaching staff and supporting cast are holding him back. The Darnold skeptics like myself will cite serious flaws in his game which many NFL defenses can exploit. 

My prediction is after next year we will be looking for a new QB as the Sam Darnold experience will be defined:

2-Awesome Games

4-Quality Games 

4-Average Games 

4-Bad Games

2-Hideous Games

 

 

 

What serious flaws do you see consistently. 

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18 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

What serious flaws do you see consistently. 

He bails from the pocket too quickly. Good QBs are able to execute within the structure of the offense. Baker Mayfield has the same issue, and you can see how the league caught up a bit. 

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15 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

But his deep ball is worse than I expected.  Not sure why. 
 

 

If he had better WR's you would be saying what a sweet deep ball Darnold throws. We have two legitimate NFL WR's in Robby who is limited and Crowder who is a slot.

Every other WR we have sucks. Not only do they suck on this team but they would suck on any other team regardless of the QB they would be playing with. It's why DT is one of our best WR's and we got him for a 6th rounder two years from now, from the Pats. 

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4 minutes ago, RobR said:

If he had better WR's you would be saying what a sweet deep ball Darnold throws. We have two legitimate NFL WR's in Robby who is limited and Crowder who is a slot.

Every other WR we have sucks. Not only do they suck on this team but they would suck on any other team regardless of the QB they would be playing with. It's why DT is one of our best WR's and we got him for a 6th rounder two years from now, from the Pats. 

We also only have one guy in Anderson who really demands safety help. If you notice Mahomes is hitting all these passes with guys matched up in man. It makes a QBs job a lot easier because they can under throw it a bit and have the WR track them ball. If you under throw a pass to a guy double covered with a safety over the top it’s probably getting picked. 

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2 hours ago, Losmeister said:

question, did the DB get a piece of that sideline throw to Griffen? or just "distract" him.

The replay clearly showed the DB wasn’t even close to touching it. It was just a drop. The biggest drop was the one by Berrios. It would have been first down inside the 10 yard line. 

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2 hours ago, RonaldJet said:

PFF is just another arbitrary metric (they have Dwayne Haskins graded average whereas ESPNs QBR has him rated as the worst passer in NFL history).

Despite grading out well over the past four weeks they still have Sam rated as one of the worst QBs in the NFL this season. Pretty much tells the story of his career so far. He has stretches where he plays terrific (and you think things have finally clicked), but the overall body of work sucks. 

The Darnold believers will tell you his coaching staff and supporting cast are holding him back. The Darnold skeptics like myself will cite serious flaws in his game which many NFL defenses can exploit. 

My prediction is after next year we will be looking for a new QB as the Sam Darnold experience will be defined:

2-Awesome Games

4-Quality Games 

4-Average Games 

4-Bad Games

2-Hideous Games

 

 

 

You forgot to factor the 3 game absence due to an ecoli poisoning or some such.

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2 minutes ago, RonaldJet said:

We also only have one guy in Anderson who really demands safety help. If you notice Mahomes is hitting all these passes with guys matched up in man. It makes a QBs job a lot easier because they can under throw it a bit and have the WR track them ball. If you under throw a pass to a guy double covered with a safety over the top it’s probably getting picked. 

No arguments here. I think you've made some very good points in this thread that I agree with.

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Do any of you think Gase is making a conscious effort to game plan in such a way to limit the mistakes Darnold will make? Keep things simple for him?

It seems like from the first game of the season, when he had Sam throw a bunch of dinks and dunks to Crowder, Gase was being ultra conservative with the kid.

I don’t think it’s a bad thing either. As long as Darnold doesn’t go “off the reservation” and start getting sloppy with his throwing mechanics, this has usually ended up with him putting up decent numbers, and cutting down on his turnovers. That should help his confidence going forward.

I could be way off with this post, and probably am, but I think Gase sees a young kid who has talent, but who needs a lot of coaching. Those across the body throws he likes to try when he’s on the run probably make Gase cringe.

I hope Gase has a plan in mind, and this is stage one. This team right now needs a lot of help on offense, and it’s probably best to limit the trouble a 22 year old can get himself into.

Just keep it simple for now. Of course, we’ll have to be patient with runs up the middle or screens when they don’t seem like the right call. Maybe there’s a big picture plan in place?

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2 hours ago, Untouchable said:

Why not judge with your eyes?

This is why I hate this analytics crap.

Boiling down athletics to a bunch of percentages and equations.

If you’re expecting Darnold to consistently look like Montana with this dogsh*t roster then I don’t know what to tell you.

He’s a 22 year old kid who exhibits elite traits throwing the football on one of the least talented teams in the league.

Build up the OL and give him another legit receiver besides Crowder and then you can more properly judge him.

Can I do both, evaluate what I see, and the numbers?

The numbers are what they are.  Generally, pretty bad vs. the rest of the NFL's QB's.

What I see matches the numbers, a QB with happy feet, who feels pressure even when it's not there, who is extremely weak so far on deep throws, does most of his best work in the under 15 yard dump-off area to RB's and TE's, and is as inconsistent as they come, sometimes looking great over the middle, sometimes looking horrible and hitting defenders in the chest.  Sometimes on back to back plays.  There were at least four balls that were coulda, should INT's vs. the Bengals, for example.  He turns it over too much vs. his production.  I see potential, and flashes of talent, but not much else so far, and most certainly nothing "special" or "elite" yet, at least not beyond occasional plays.  He does not elevate his supporting talent, he is defined by his supporting talent.  And his getting Mono to start his second pro season was  massive fail, frankly.

With all that said, he's young and on a bad team.  He can develop, he can grow, he can learn, and he'll need to do all those things to be special, to be elite.  But he's also going to have to play with the hand he is dealt.  Not everyone gets all pros at every position, Sam has to deal with his team as it is, not how fans want it.  And he will have to produce like a legit NFL pro QB, not just flash like one.

I'd love to say I see greatness now, I don't.  I see another young exceedingly inconsistent kid getting beat up on a bad team with IMO bad coaching.  A story heard a million times.   He could go either way at this point.  We all have to hope he goes the right way, but IMO it's no sure thing.  

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17 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Can I do both, evaluate what I see, and the numbers?

The numbers are what they are.  Generally, pretty bad vs. the rest of the NFL's QB's.

What I see matches the numbers, a QB with happy feet, who feels pressure even when it's not there, who is extremely weak so far on deep throws, does most of his best work in the under 15 yard dump-off area to RB's and TE's, and is as inconsistent as they come, sometimes looking great over the middle, sometimes looking horrible and hitting defenders in the chest.  Sometimes on back to back plays.  There were at least four balls that were coulda, should INT's vs. the Bengals, for example.  He turns it over too much vs. his production.  I see potential, and flashes of talent, but not much else so far, and most certainly nothing "special" or "elite" yet, at least not beyond occasional plays.  He does not elevate his supporting talent, he is defined by his supporting talent.  And his getting Mono to start his second pro season was  massive fail, frankly.

With all that said, he's young and on a bad team.  He can develop, he can grow, he can learn, and he'll need to do all those things to be special, to be elite.  But he's also going to have to play with the hand he is dealt.  Not everyone gets all pros at every position, Sam has to deal with his team as it is, not how fans want it.  And he will have to produce like a legit NFL pro QB, not just flash like one.

I'd love to say I see greatness now, I don't.  I see another young exceedingly inconsistent kid getting beat up on a bad team with IMO bad coaching.  A story heard a million times.   He could go either way at this point.  We all have to hope he goes the right way, but IMO it's no sure thing.  

I agree with everything except for the Mono part. You make it sound like it’s his fault for getting sick. 

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2 hours ago, Untouchable said:

Why not judge with your eyes?

This is why I hate this analytics crap.

Boiling down athletics to a bunch of percentages and equations.

If you’re expecting Darnold to consistently look like Montana with this dogsh*t roster then I don’t know what to tell you.

He’s a 22 year old kid who exhibits elite traits throwing the football on one of the least talented teams in the league.

Build up the OL and give him another legit receiver besides Crowder and then you can more properly judge him.

Stop being logical.  No one on here has time for that kind of reason and fair point of view

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And you jerks have the nerve to complain about Sam?

 

Brett Favre (16)
2009 Mark Sanchez (15) / Kellen Clemens (1)
2010 Mark Sanchez (16)
2011
2012 Mark Sanchez (15) / Greg McElroy (1)
2013 Geno Smith (16)
2014 Geno Smith (13) / Michael Vick (3)
2015 Ryan Fitzpatrick (16)
2016 Ryan Fitzpatrick (11) / Bryce Petty (4) / Geno Smith (1)
2017 Josh McCown (13) / Bryce Petty (3)
2018 Sam Darnold (13) / Josh McCown (3)
2019 Sam Darnold (6) / Luke Falk (2) / Trevor Siemian (1)

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Can I do both, evaluate what I see, and the numbers?

The numbers are what they are.  Generally, pretty bad vs. the rest of the NFL's QB's.

What I see matches the numbers, a QB with happy feet, who feels pressure even when it's not there, who is extremely weak so far on deep throws, does most of his best work in the under 15 yard dump-off area to RB's and TE's, and is as inconsistent as they come, sometimes looking great over the middle, sometimes looking horrible and hitting defenders in the chest.  Sometimes on back to back plays.  There were at least four balls that were coulda, should INT's vs. the Bengals, for example.  He turns it over too much vs. his production.  I see potential, and flashes of talent, but not much else so far, and most certainly nothing "special" or "elite" yet, at least not beyond occasional plays.  He does not elevate his supporting talent, he is defined by his supporting talent.  And his getting Mono to start his second pro season was  massive fail, frankly.

With all that said, he's young and on a bad team.  He can develop, he can grow, he can learn, and he'll need to do all those things to be special, to be elite.  But he's also going to have to play with the hand he is dealt.  Not everyone gets all pros at every position, Sam has to deal with his team as it is, not how fans want it.  And he will have to produce like a legit NFL pro QB, not just flash like one.

I'd love to say I see greatness now, I don't.  I see another young exceedingly inconsistent kid getting beat up on a bad team with IMO bad coaching.  A story heard a million times.   He could go either way at this point.  We all have to hope he goes the right way, but IMO it's no sure thing.  

I couldn’t agree more with you.

I don’t see this team getting a whole lot better the next two years, and I think we’re going to be having these same conversations with the same people about Sam the entire time, because I see him as the boat the tide lifts, not the tide that does the lifting.

I look at his first two seasons. 6 missed games due to mono and what was basically a benching. Losses to two teams with a combined 0-18 record. The poor mechanics and turnovers you talked about. The bottom of the league rankings.

If he was on any other team, and these same fans saw this production from a guy talking about ghosts, what do you think they’d be saying about him?

 

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23 minutes ago, lounap23 said:

Stop being logical.  No one on here has time for that kind of reason and fair point of view

You’re defining logic as the opinion you agree with. Which is fine, we all like to have our feelings validated.

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25 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

And you jerks have the nerve to complain about Sam?

 

Brett Favre (16)
2009 Mark Sanchez (15) / Kellen Clemens (1)
2010 Mark Sanchez (16)
2011
2012 Mark Sanchez (15) / Greg McElroy (1)
2013 Geno Smith (16)
2014 Geno Smith (13) / Michael Vick (3)
2015 Ryan Fitzpatrick (16)
2016 Ryan Fitzpatrick (11) / Bryce Petty (4) / Geno Smith (1)
2017 Josh McCown (13) / Bryce Petty (3)
2018 Sam Darnold (13) / Josh McCown (3)
2019 Sam Darnold (6) / Luke Falk (2) / Trevor Siemian (1)

So two years in, after giving up the 6th pick in the draft, and 3 second round picks for him, that’s the defense you came up for him?

Him being better then those guys should make us happy? Hmmmm.

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3 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I likely will take some grief for this post, but that's ok.  I want to have a legitimate discussion and hopefully some folks will expand on their views so I can maybe get a better idea of why they think that.

My question is, if you are someone who believes yesterday was a really bad game for Sam, why do you think that?

I have watched the offensive possessions twice now, and what I see is very mediocre game from Sam.  He was not good, but he wasn't bad either, in my opinion.  He missed a throw or two, had a drop or two, and threw a few from weird positions that looked bad.  All in all though, what was it yesterday that would make someone say it was a "bad" game from him?  Inaccuracy?  Decision making?  Too conservative?

0 tds.

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46 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

And you jerks have the nerve to complain about Sam?

 

Brett Favre (16)
2009 Mark Sanchez (15) / Kellen Clemens (1)
2010 Mark Sanchez (16)
2011
2012 Mark Sanchez (15) / Greg McElroy (1)
2013 Geno Smith (16)
2014 Geno Smith (13) / Michael Vick (3)
2015 Ryan Fitzpatrick (16)
2016 Ryan Fitzpatrick (11) / Bryce Petty (4) / Geno Smith (1)
2017 Josh McCown (13) / Bryce Petty (3)
2018 Sam Darnold (13) / Josh McCown (3)
2019 Sam Darnold (6) / Luke Falk (2) / Trevor Siemian (1)

He has really made the jets a better team!

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Not a single offensive lineman had an even average grade vs Cincy. Meanwhile Darnold was the highest rated player on the offence. 

You cannot excel in that situation. No QB would. None. I wonder how many even watch other NFL games and see what happens even the best pocket QB’s when their protection falls apart. This is nearly every game for Sam, it was every game for Siemian/Falk too. It’s a dumpster fire.

A coach literally not even trying to attack the most susceptible area of Cincy’s defence. Receivers dropping balls left and right. A line that gets manhandled on every play. 

The only regrets about the Sam Darnold pick should be Sam Darnold’s. We’re doing our best to utterly destroy the kid.

Suppose PFF are just delusional Darnold fanboys who hate data.

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4 hours ago, RonaldJet said:

He bails from the pocket too quickly. Good QBs are able to execute within the structure of the offense. Baker Mayfield has the same issue, and you can see how the league caught up a bit. 

Pocket? Pocket?? Sam has a pocket?? Maybe all of 2 or 3 times a game. I think Sam is a significantly better QB than people think. Brady looks totally pedestrian with weak skills players, but Darnold has weak skills players AND a putrid embarassing OK, Swap Prescott and Darnold and Prescott would perform worse than Sam and Sam would instantly be a Top 5 QB in the NFL. OL might even be more important to a team than QB.  It's really that simple.

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3 hours ago, Warfish said:

Can I do both, evaluate what I see, and the numbers?

The numbers are what they are.  Generally, pretty bad vs. the rest of the NFL's QB's.

What I see matches the numbers, a QB with happy feet, who feels pressure even when it's not there, who is extremely weak so far on deep throws, does most of his best work in the under 15 yard dump-off area to RB's and TE's, and is as inconsistent as they come, sometimes looking great over the middle, sometimes looking horrible and hitting defenders in the chest.  Sometimes on back to back plays.  There were at least four balls that were coulda, should INT's vs. the Bengals, for example.  He turns it over too much vs. his production.  I see potential, and flashes of talent, but not much else so far, and most certainly nothing "special" or "elite" yet, at least not beyond occasional plays.  He does not elevate his supporting talent, he is defined by his supporting talent.  And his getting Mono to start his second pro season was  massive fail, frankly.

With all that said, he's young and on a bad team.  He can develop, he can grow, he can learn, and he'll need to do all those things to be special, to be elite.  But he's also going to have to play with the hand he is dealt.  Not everyone gets all pros at every position, Sam has to deal with his team as it is, not how fans want it.  And he will have to produce like a legit NFL pro QB, not just flash like one.

I'd love to say I see greatness now, I don't.  I see another young exceedingly inconsistent kid getting beat up on a bad team with IMO bad coaching.  A story heard a million times.   He could go either way at this point.  We all have to hope he goes the right way, but IMO it's no sure thing.  

Wow I have no idea what you are watching then, I disagree pretty strongly with almost every single statement. It does not reflect the reality of Sam AT ALL. Literally nothing.

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3 hours ago, 14 in Green said:

I couldn’t agree more with you.

I don’t see this team getting a whole lot better the next two years, and I think we’re going to be having these same conversations with the same people about Sam the entire time, because I see him as the boat the tide lifts, not the tide that does the lifting.

I look at his first two seasons. 6 missed games due to mono and what was basically a benching. Losses to two teams with a combined 0-18 record. The poor mechanics and turnovers you talked about. The bottom of the league rankings.

If he was on any other team, and these same fans saw this production from a guy talking about ghosts, what do you think they’d be saying about him?

 

So you've basically made up your mind on Darnold and anything negative just supports your theory and anything good that he does is an aberration.

I just find it odd when I read he doesn't elevate his supporting cast since in the games he's not played the Jets haven't won a game. He was throwing to players last year that aren't even in the league or active rosters this year and his #1 this year is easily a #2 at best or #3 on most teams and a TE that was a last min signing this year that got rewarded with a nice contract recently playing with Darnold.

I get we're in a results driven society and the expectations is for him to be a practically flawless superstar in his second year at 22 yrs old since that is why people call him a bust after every interception or almost int. But the fact is some times it takes time to develop into a really good QB, Drew Brees would be a bust in everyone's eyes here after his 3rd year. Ultimately the Jets really need to establish some sort of a foundation within the organization since everything is so disjointed right now it's hard to thrive and have long term success under these circumstances.

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My biggest issues with Sam. his deep ball accuracy is terrible.  That pass to Robbie was under thrown, the pass to DT was overthrown.   The second problem is he will not run when necessary,  I do not  know if its the foot injury or if he is just afraid to get hit.  His short to intermediate game is OK.  He also can not press when things are not going well.  When he presses bad things happen.  It's like he is trying to score 14 points on one play. He had one of those moments on Sunday and the defender dropped the ball.  Would I call it a bad game no, more mediocre than bad.
If he comes out of the season after the illness with 20+ touchdowns and limits the TO's he may be on his way, he is still a baby in NFL years.  So lets see if he turns the corner in year 3 with better personnel in front of him.

Just give him an actual NFL offensive line and everything will change imo. It’s really that simple.
And the game plan was honestly atrocious and accentuated our weaknesses in both the Bengals and Pats games. That’s no way to give Any QB the best chance to succeed. He’s 22 yrs old, on his second coach and had Mono with an OL made up of backups. He’s 4-4 in the midst of that mess while scoring 101 pts in the 4 wins.


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3 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Wow I have no idea what you are watching then, I disagree pretty strongly with almost every single statement. It does not reflect the reality of Sam AT ALL. Literally nothing.

So tell us the Sam you see. 

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