Stat Based NFL Comps: Zach Wilson vs Justin Fields

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, kdels62 said:

What if maybe it is a series of factors that form a complex explanation that is difficult to quantify. The end result being a high level QB prospect however, knowing the complex will enable a team to better know if the success can be replicated and cultivated. 

To be fair the article did conclude that wilson does seem to have great skills.  It is also fair to speculate how much of his tremendous jump in productivity is due to the system.  That was the premise, how he came out of nowhere to become a top prospect.  

[maury77]

37 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

I'm down to disagree with you. I think we've had good conversation about different prospects and in the end if we're wrong or right at least we're putting together actual arguments. 

We actually agree more often than not. At least you actually watch the film and put together good arguments. 

[FidelioJet]

1 minute ago, kdels62 said:

What if maybe it is a series of factors that form a complex explanation that is difficult to quantify. The end result being a high level QB prospect however, knowing the complex will enable a team to better know if the success can be replicated and cultivated. 

QB’s. Like any other player. Get better as they play more and evolve.  
do we expect QB’s in the NFL to be great their rookie year or second year?

There can be many, many reasons why he was so much better his 3rd year and it’s probably a combination of factors.  Including but not limited to a system better suited to his skill set. 

[Paradis]

You have to think that if JD and his talent eval team read this thread they would laugh their asses off. One reason or another. 

“Joe...you gotta see this” 

post: “when fields throws from the 30 yard line when facing north, he’s completing only 60%. Wilson on the other hand is at 61.4%”

[bitonti]

20 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

You still need a QB.   
That’s the part if it you keep pushing aside like it’s irrelevant and they’re all kinda the same. 

The qb is the ice cream, the line is the bowl 

Sam Darnold is what happens when you make a man eat ice cream off the floor for 3 years 

I'm not saying they don't need a qb. What I'm saying is they are just sh*tty enough to ruin the next one 

 

[More Cowbell]

I have been saying we shouldn't  trade for Watson unless the Texans would do the deal for the Seattle first round picks but now am.leaning to just draft Foelds or Wilson. I prefer Fields jist based on how he preformed against Clemson with broken ribs (you can't  teach that)  but will support  Wilson if he is JD's guy. 

[dbatesman]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

I guess not but sitting out does not make Sewell or any of these guys bums 

They are actually the rarest athletes when testing comes out 

I don't think Sewell is a bum. But the risk with him is at least as high as with Wilson.

[Charlie Brown]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

So I'm not here making any proclamations, I just dont see these apparent flaws in Fields game and I dont see a huge gap between him and TL.  So with that, I just dont see how you can pass on Fields at #2...certainly not for Zach Wilson but I have no idea bro.  I think Fields is going to be very good, he's got the game that fits where the NFL is going more so than a lot of recent prospects. 

 

 

To me, I see Fields as a bigger stronger Russell Wilson.

Why that now magically counts as a "Flawed QB" is beyond me... 

[JetsFanShawn]

zach wilson hes good passer

[Shockwave]

2 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Yeah but that also ignores when they are right. It also ignores that their interpretation of their data changes based on new evidence. It also ignores the methodology which is more important than occasionally bad predictions. 

but here's a fun article from PFF:

It's possible that Wilson fits perfectly in the modern NFL game. We’ve seen him run the same scheme that is spreading through the league, so we don’t have to imagine what it would look like — we’ve already seen it on film. But I worry that every time we've seen a quarterback from the wide-zone system have a great year, he naturally comes back down to earth. If the scheme made Wilson a hit in college, could he have already maxed out?

For the record, I believe when you try to strip away the BYU scheme and just focus on Wilson himself, there is a really good-looking NFL prospect there. He has a lightning-quick release, awesome arm talent and can make plays out of structure. I just have this nagging feeling that the scheme really changed our perception of him rather than him changing and becoming a better quarterback.

Good Stuff. 

It's not talked about enough that we will be running this same very scheme. Its a much easier projection and fits this team like a glove. Should help him succeed much faster as well. 

 

[Shockwave]

2 hours ago, maury77 said:

Yes, you are missing a poster trying to extrapolate statistics to justify his preconceived preference of 1 prospect over another. 

 

2 hours ago, nycdan said:

Indeed.  This should be mandatory reading for everyone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

 

The point of using Statistics or facts is to remove bias. The Statistics favor Wilson. In the vast majority of mocks out there and rankings Wilson is ahead of Fields. Those rankings could be Draft guys , NFL insiders or Former NFL players. 

Are all of these statistics and rankings from people just being biased? 

People are talking about Fields being the QB4 this year. Those people just must be incredible biased?

 

 

 

[JustInFudge]

This is an absolutely asinine analysis, no offense. 

[FidelioJet]

This is some of the best analysis I’ve seen so far.  Great job. 

[jetswinbaby!]

This has not clarified the questions I have at all. Oh well...

[nycdan]

31 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

 

The point of using Statistics or facts is to remove bias. The Statistics favor Wilson. In the vast majority of mocks out there and rankings Wilson is ahead of Fields. Those rankings could be Draft guys , NFL insiders or Former NFL players. 

Are all of these statistics and rankings from people just being biased? 

People are talking about Fields being the QB4 this year. Those people just must be incredible biased?

 

 

 

You keep saying that, but I have not seen a credible mock with Fields at 4.  Most seem split 50:50 between Fields and Wilson at 2.  I can show you plenty of examples of those.

Also, statistics can remove bias but not if they are interpreted with the bias.  That's the point.  You cited statistics that were almost imperceptibly different and interpreted a 'wide' gap between them.  You compared 7.19 YPA vs. 7.22 YPA and 62.83% vs 62.91% completion and called it a wide gap.  That's 0.4% and 0.1% differences which are, by any rational measure, statistically insignificant here.

This was pointed out and you haven't responded to it.  So it may be possible that you are interpreting the data in a way that favors your preferred outcome.  I'm not saying this to make anyone angry, but to point out that it's pretty common, particularly on message boards like this, and when it happens, it makes it easy for others to dismiss the argument because it is based on faulty interpretation of data.

If you want to create a narrative that people are going to listen to, you have to be willing to respond to that criticism or acknowledge that maybe you are simply expressing a subjective opinion like everyone else.  At the moment, I have seen nothing to make me think Wilson is any less of a risk than any other QB prospect of the last 10 years, and subjectively, I actually think he's riskier.

[nycdan]

31 minutes ago, JiF said:

This is an absolutely asinine analysis, no offense. 

 

15 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

This is some of the best analysis I’ve seen so far.  Great job. 

I love this place.

[Shockwave]

43 minutes ago, nycdan said:

You keep saying that, but I have not seen a credible mock with Fields at 4.  Most seem split 50:50 between Fields and Wilson at 2.  I can show you plenty of examples of those.

Also, statistics can remove bias but not if they are interpreted with the bias.  That's the point.  You cited statistics that were almost imperceptibly different and interpreted a 'wide' gap between them.  You compared 7.19 YPA vs. 7.22 YPA and 62.83% vs 62.91% completion and called it a wide gap.  That's 0.4% and 0.1% differences which are, by any rational measure, statistically insignificant here.

This was pointed out and you haven't responded to it.  So it may be possible that you are interpreting the data in a way that favors your preferred outcome.  I'm not saying this to make anyone angry, but to point out that it's pretty common, particularly on message boards like this, and when it happens, it makes it easy for others to dismiss the argument because it is based on faulty interpretation of data.

If you want to create a narrative that people are going to listen to, you have to be willing to respond to that criticism or acknowledge that maybe you are simply expressing a subjective opinion like everyone else.  At the moment, I have seen nothing to make me think Wilson is any less of a risk than any other QB prospect of the last 10 years, and subjectively, I actually think he's riskier.

This is a PFF article. I am not the original author and people could simply google the details of their projection system meaning its fully open to the public. But sure I will come back and break it down later. 

There is certainly way more stats to go through though. 

Quote

DECISION-MAKING/TIMING/ANTICIPATION

Alright, it’s time to stop pushing. These traits all tend to go hand in hand, so I grouped them together. Let’s call them “offensive mastery.” Who does the best job of getting the ball where it needs to go and timing when it needs to go there?

Both signal-callers have been exceptional at protecting the football. Since the start of 2019, Wilson has only 19 turnover-worthy plays on 740 dropbacks, while Fields has 17 turnover-worthy plays on 684 dropbacks. You won’t find much difference in this regard.

The biggest distinction between them lies within their timing and anticipation. While it shows up again and again on their respective tapes, I can’t give you dozens of examples here to prove that point. One stat that sums it up very succinctly is how both deal with blitzes.

With no blitz this season, Wilson’s average time to throw is 2.85 seconds (246 dropbacks) and Fields’ is 3.07 seconds (107 dropbacks). When blitzed, Wilson’s average time to throw predictably drops to 2.74 seconds (119 dropbacks) and Fields' somehow increases to 3.21 seconds (103 dropbacks). That’s an eternity — and it's not exactly what you want to see from a top quarterback prospect.

Fields is afforded a great deal of leeway with the Ohio State offensive line, his mobility and the talented receiving corps, but that’s not going to fly at the next level. The highest average time to throw of any NFL quarterback all season against the blitz is Josh Allen at 2.80 seconds. Fields simply has to speed up.

Fields has real problems with processing and creating self inflicted pressure on himself. As noted above he would be the WORST in the NFL by a country mile in this regard. It's important to note those above numbers are with an excellent offensive line. This is a red flag on every scouting report you read. If he doesn't fix this he will be a huge NFL bust. 

In terms of mocks with Justin Fields going 4th as a QB here is 3 for you. 2 of which are pretty close to Joe Douglas.  Thats Daniel Jeremiah, Todd Mcshay and Mike Tannebaum. 

By the time the draft rolls around the conversation is going to be Lance vs Fields for the 3rd QB. Well it already started....

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2021-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-zach-wilson-to-jets

 

[nycdan]

6 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

This is a PFF article. I am not the original author and people could simply google the details of their projection system meaning its fully open to the public. But sure I will come back and break it down later. 

There is certainly way more stats to go through though. 

With no blitz this season, Wilson’s average time to throw is 2.85 seconds (246 dropbacks) and Fields’ is 3.07 seconds (107 dropbacks). When blitzed, Wilson’s average time to throw predictably drops to 2.74 seconds (119 dropbacks) and Fields' somehow increases to 3.21 seconds (103 dropbacks). That’s an eternity — and it's not exactly what you want to see from a top quarterback prospect.

Fields has real problems with processing and creating self inflicted pressure on himself. As noted above he would be the WORST in the NFL by a country mile in this regard. It's important to note those above numbers are with an excellent offensive line. This is a red flag on every scouting report you read. If he doesn't fix this he will be a huge NFL bust. 

That's a much more compelling argument.  You should start with that.

[maury77]

1 hour ago, Shockwave said:

 

The point of using Statistics or facts is to remove bias. The Statistics favor Wilson. In the vast majority of mocks out there and rankings Wilson is ahead of Fields. Those rankings could be Draft guys , NFL insiders or Former NFL players. 

Are all of these statistics and rankings from people just being biased? 

People are talking about Fields being the QB4 this year. Those people just must be incredible biased?

 

 

 

No, just really poor at evaluating quarterback.s 

[Grandy]

One thing I'll say is that I feel better about this QB class than the ultra hyped one of 2018.

[maury77]

14 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

This is a PFF article. I am not the original author and people could simply google the details of their projection system meaning its fully open to the public. But sure I will come back and break it down later. 

There is certainly way more stats to go through though. 

Fields has real problems with processing and creating self inflicted pressure on himself. As noted above he would be the WORST in the NFL by a country mile in this regard. It's important to note those above numbers are with an excellent offensive line. This is a red flag on every scouting report you read. If he doesn't fix this he will be a huge NFL bust. 

In terms of mocks with Justin Fields going 4th as a QB here is 3 for you. 2 of which are pretty close to Joe Douglas.  Thats Daniel Jeremiah, Todd Mcshay and Mike Tannebaum. 

By the time the draft rolls around the conversation is going to be Lance vs Fields for the 3rd QB. Well it already started....

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2021-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-zach-wilson-to-jets

 

And these guys have Fields above Wilson. 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/prospect-rankings

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-draft-prospects-2021-updated-big-board-player-rankings/

https://www.nfl.com/news/bucky-brooks-2021-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-jets-start-new-era-at-qb-with-justin-fields

And Tannenbaum is speaking out of both sides of his mouth. He also said that Wilson looks frail and susceptible to injuries given his play style. 

I'm so f*cking bored of this conversation. 

[Shockwave]

23 minutes ago, maury77 said:

And these guys have Fields above Wilson. 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/prospect-rankings

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-draft-prospects-2021-updated-big-board-player-rankings/

https://www.nfl.com/news/bucky-brooks-2021-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-jets-start-new-era-at-qb-with-justin-fields

And Tannenbaum is speaking out of both sides of his mouth. He also said that Wilson looks frail and susceptible to injuries given his play style. 

I'm so f*cking bored of this conversation. 

 

You cited Tony Pauline's site. Do you actually read what he says? How are you going to cite a link in my favor ?

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-rumors-draft-news-qb-carousels-impact-on-the-2021-nfl-draft/

Quote

On Sunday, you shared information that the Jets keep getting calls about the availability of Sam Darnold. If the Jets do trade Darnold, which available quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft do you think the Jets favor — Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, or somebody else?

Zach Wilson — he would be a terrific fit for the offense they want to run.

 

[maury77]

 

Yes, on his rankings he has Fields above Wilson. Do you actually read what you cite before you post? Does the concept that Wilson could be a good fit but Fields is the better prospect escape you?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Shockwave]

37 minutes ago, nycdan said:

That's a much more compelling argument.  You should start with that.

The Cool thing about the PFF article is a statistical model that projects Zach Wilson to Patrick Mohomes and Russell Wilson. 

Many see it on the tape like Ryan Clark below. But a projection model that see's it is a different thing. Will get into breaking down the model later. 

 

 

[Paradis]

2 hours ago, JiF said:

This is an absolutely asinine analysis, no offense. 

Followed by—

2 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

This is some of the best analysis I’ve seen so far.  Great job. 

 

[Paradis]

58 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

The Cool thing about this PFF statistical model is that it projects Zach Wilson to be the next Patrick Mahomes 

I applaud your cantor, but you’re gonna get someone killed. 

[GreenFish]

What that PFF analysis said in that video doesn’t seem controversial. He said in most drafts, Wilson and Fields are worthy of the number 1 pick. They have them ranked really close with the tie breaker going to Wilson for showing the ability process quicker.

Im seeing some suggesting they are knocking Fields. Maybe it’s the zero some view. If someone says Wilson is good it somehow means Fields is bad.

[Grandy]

24 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Followed by—

 

The duality of man.

[dcJet]

4 hours ago, bitonti said:

The qb is the ice cream, the line is the bowl 

Sam Darnold is what happens when you make a man eat ice cream off the floor for 3 years 

I'm not saying they don't need a qb. What I'm saying is they are just sh*tty enough to ruin the next one 

 

Then why did Sam suck while eating ice cream on a throne at USC his final season?

[Shockwave]

47 minutes ago, Paradis said:

I applaud your cantor, but you’re gonna get someone killed. 

Is that Denzel? If so you're the man. 

[dcJet]

Great thread and opinions. 

I don't watch college ball so I appreciate the analysis.  

I hope we take one of these QB's

 

[Mark78]

3 hours ago, JetsFanShawn said:

zach wilson hes good passer

JetsFanShawn hes good English 

[RedBeardedSavage]

PFF were wrong about Herbert and Josh Allen. PFF also, if I remember correctly, never graded a quarterback higher than Baker Mayfield. 

They might just need more time/information to build better models. I respect them for trying. But I have to say I tune out when they analyze quarterbacks.

Nobody knows what they're doing scouting quarterbacks. 

From the Jets/team building standpoint - might as well go all-in for Deshaun, and if that doesn't happen by draft day, just focus on building a great support structure for our current quarterback. 

[Paradis]

13 minutes ago, dcJet said:

Great thread and opinions. 

I don't watch college ball so I appreciate the analysis.  

I hope we take one of these QB's

 

We probably won’t. 

[32EBoozer]

11 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

PFF were wrong about Herbert and Josh Allen. PFF also, if I remember correctly, never graded a quarterback higher than Baker Mayfield. 

They might just need more time/information to build better models. I respect them for trying. But I have to say I tune out when they analyze quarterbacks.

Nobody knows what they're doing scouting quarterbacks. 

From the Jets/team building standpoint - might as well go all-in for Deshaun, and if that doesn't happen by draft day, just focus on building a great support structure for our current quarterback. 

Hey Red, if we do stick with Darnold an load up on talent do you see               Owusu-Koramoh being there @ 23? I’m a big fan