3 Reasons Zach Wilson's Hot Start Is Legitimate

[flgreen]

3 reasons Zach Wilson’s hot start is legitimate

It's okay for New York Jets fans to be excited about Zach Wilson's hot start considering the reasons for his success are legitimate.

By

 Michael Nania

 -

 08/24/2021

It’s okay to be excited about Zach Wilson’s impressive start to the preseason

New York Jets rookie quarterback Zach Wilson has looked like a seasoned veteran throughout the first two exhibition games of his NFL career. Wilson’s 137.7 passer rating leads all quarterbacks with at least 20 passing attempts through two weeks of the preseason.

Of course, optimism about Wilson’s start should be tempered to an extent considering that he has only played six offensive series and none of them were against a first-team defense.

With that being said, it is still acceptable for Jets fans to have a good deal of excitement about Wilson’s start because of how he has gone about putting it together. The traits that have led to his early success are not fluky – he has shown some of the most crucial abilities that are necessary to achieve sustained long-term success in the league.

 

Great decision-making

Wilson’s excellent decision-making is undoubtedly the biggest reason to believe that his hot start is legitimate.

Fans and media often fixate on the eye candy of the quarterback position – arm strength, athleticism, mobility, size – but none of those things are the primary driving force behind what dictates a quarterback’s success. Decision-making is easily the most important skill.

Wilson has only dropped back 20 times, but as you comb through his film and analyze his thought process on each play, it is difficult to find problems with the decisions he has made. It can be argued that he made the correct decision on all but one or two of his 20 dropbacks.

That’s not an exaggeration – check out Vitor Paiva’s film breakdowns of every one of Wilson’s pass attempts against the Giants and Packers and you will see the remarkable consistency at which Wilson has been choosing the best available option.

Wilson has been reading the field fluidly and decisively, never hesitating to continue going through his reads until he finds the most open receiver. Additionally, he has made good pre-snap reads to identify favorable post-snap matchups; this includes frequent identifications of one-on-one coverage against Corey Davis.

What separates the great quarterbacks from the mediocre ones is their ability to make the correct decision at a much higher frequency. Wilson is off to a good start in this area, and it’s a real reason to be excited.

 

Throwing under pressure

One of Wilson’s biggest concerns coming out of BYU was how he would handle pressure. Wilson played behind a stellar offensive line at BYU that routinely gave him enormous pockets to throw from and plenty of time to read the field.

The sample size is small, but Wilson has looked poised in the few situations he has faced pressure thus far. He has completed 4-of-6 pressured pass attempts for 53 yards. Wilson has also been effective at getting the football out and protecting himself, as he has taken zero sacks.

Wilson’s average of 8.8 yards per pressured dropback ranks second-best among qualified quarterbacks through two weeks of the preseason.

Put the stats aside for a moment. It’s the fearlessness that Wilson has shown that really stands out.

There are two plays in particular that showed Wilson’s potential to deliver from a congested pocket while accepting an incoming hit – a throw to Tyler Kroft against the Giants and a throw to Corey Davis against the Packers. On both plays, Wilson hung tight in the pocket and threw with proper mechanics to deliver an accurate ball, knowing that doing so would likely result in him taking a hit.

That right there is the key to inside-the-pocket success in the NFL. Quarterbacks must be tough enough to stand in the pocket and take on a hit so that they can deliver the ball normally. Under-pressure inaccuracy stems from the awkward mechanics that come as a result of trying to avoid contact while throwing the ball.

Wilson needs to keep his under-pressure success going for far more than just six pass attempts to prove that he can be good at it in the NFL. Regardless, the early returns are positive.

Consistency

Small-sample stats are often misleading because of how easily they can be bloated. Over the course of a measly 20 pass attempts, one 90-yard touchdown can make a quarterback look amazing even if he played terribly across the other 19 passes.

There is also the danger of illegitimate production. Quarterbacks can easily rack up yards they did not earn through screen passes, wide-open schemed-up completions, ridiculous catches on bad throws, and crazy after-the-catch plays by their receivers among other things.

The beauty of Wilson’s production to this point is that it is completely earned. Wilson has not been bailed out by amazing catches or free yardage, nor has he made one or two big plays that pump up his numbers.

Wilson’s longest completion thus far went for 27 yards. That is puny for a quarterback’s longest completion – 41 quarterbacks have thrown a longer completion.

Yet, even without a single bomb to boost his stats, Wilson ranks third among qualified quarterbacks with 9.6 yards per pass attempt.

 

 

That is an incredible sign of consistency.

The Jets have picked up a first down on all six of Wilson’s drives. He has yet to lead a three-and-out.

Wilson’s statistics overcome the dangers of small sample sizes because of just how incredibly efficient he has been on a play-to-play basis. You could remove any one or two of his plays from the picture and his overall body of work would still be fantastic.

[92ShaunEllis92]

Is this a joke? 
 

REFORMAT!!  

[The Crusher]

Am I the only one who read the title and hope it wasn’t a @Defense Wins Championships thread? 

[The Crusher]

Just now, 92ShaunEllis92 said:

Is this a joke? 
 

REFORMAT!!  

LOL

[UntouchableCrew]

I'm excited by his start too but this feels like a little homerism to me.

Under pressure? He's mostly had clean pockets. Consistency? He's made like 20 throws.

It's been a strong start but I'm not sure you can make these types of claims yet.

[Bronx]

Right click and select plain text duddette. 

[Jimmy 2 Times]

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[Defense Wins Championships]

Just now, The Crusher said:

Am I the only one who read the title and hope it wasn’t a @Defense Wins Championships thread? 

You know how you know Zach Wilson is the real deal? 

Because I went from dreaming about Trevor Lawrence to now having this kid as my avatar. 

And it's hard for a player to win me over. Just ask Marcus Maye who I've nitpicked ever since passing on my favorite FSU RB Dalvin Cook 5 years ago ?

[92ShaunEllis92]

Something to chomp on in the meantime from Dick Semen-i:

Harbinger or mirage? Closer look at Jets' Zach Wilson and his fast start

 

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- In his brief NFL career, New York Jets rookie Zach Wilsonalready has experienced a mild case of the high-low extremes of media coverage. There were alarm bells when the quarterback struggled early in training camp, and now some people are ready to write songs about him after two sharp outings in the preseason.

Here's where we provide perspective.

Let's start by stressing this point: So far, Wilson is everything the Jets envisioned when they selected him with the No. 2 pick in the 2021 NFL draft. In six series (42 plays), he hasn't done anything that could be perceived as a red flag: No interceptions, no fumbles, no sacks, no pre-snap penalties and no three-and-outs.

And four scoring drives. Impressive production.

Before we nominate him for AFC Offensive Rookie of the Year, it's important to understand a few things. Wilson has operated under optimal conditions. That he has faced predominantly backups probably has a lot to do with that. Both the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants opted to rest their key starters.

In 20 dropbacks, Wilson hasn't been knocked to the ground -- not a single time. He also has been throwing to open wide receivers. He's 13-for-14 for 166 yards and two touchdowns when targeting players who are three-plus yards from the defender when the ball arrives, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

Some of that can be attributed to clever play design by Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur. Wilson probably deserves some credit, too, for making quick and accurate reads. But we all know the degree of difficulty will increase in the regular season, when the speed intensifies and the pass coverages become more complex. So far, he's had two tight-window throws, when the separation is less than one yard. Both were incomplete.

Jets coach Robert Saleh isn't a fan of the narrative Wilson is putting up big numbers (15-for-20, 191 yards, two touchdowns) because he is playing against backups.

"If it was the other way around and he was struggling, he'd be getting torched," Saleh said Monday. "The fact that he's going out there and absolutely dissecting these defenses, I think is a testament to him.

"You guys know how I feel about professional football players, and their ability to play this game. I get it, maybe they haven't been working together, so their timing ... might be off from a defensive standpoint. Credit to our offense. ... They've had a really good showing so far this preseason. You still got to go out there and do it. [It's] no different than going out on the golf course. You might be playing an easy course, but you still have to go out there and hit shots."

There's no doubt about that, but many of those shots are easier at the local municipal course than, say, Winged Foot Golf Club in Mamaroneck, New York.

ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky, a former NFL quarterback, agreed with Saleh for the most part. While he acknowledged "it's always easier playing against poor talent," Orlovsky said he focuses on the "why" more than the actual results when evaluating quarterbacks, meaning: Why is he playing well? Why is he playing poorly?

When Orlovsky looked at Wilson's first two games, he sees good decision making and superior arm talent.

"It doesn't matter who it's happening against for me," he said. "I remember three years ago. Sam [Darnold] was doing some awesome stuff as a young kid in the preseason as well, but the support around Wilson is galaxies better."

Two plays jump out from the Green Bay game. On a first-and-10, Wilson was flushed to his right and threw off balance on the move to wide receiver Corey Davison the right sideline for 27 yards. The ball had plenty of zip and traveled 44.6 yards in the air, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Later, Wilson used his eyes and a shoulder fake to freeze the middle safety on an 18-yard touchdown pass to tight end Tyler Kroft.

The point is, Wilson has demonstrated the kind of traits that make you want to believe the Jets have solved their 50-year quarterback riddle -- and that's exactly what you want out of the preseason. At the same time, let's slow the superlatives. He still hasn't been tested mentally or physically the way he will be in the regular season.

It looks like the Philadelphia Eagles will play mostly backups on Friday (7:30 p.m. ET) at MetLife Stadium, so it could wind up being a JV summer for Wilson. Hey, look at it this way: Wilson is building confidence and honing his process, which Saleh likes to talk about.

"That's where we're really, really excited about him," Saleh said. "Sometimes the result on game day is going to be phenomenal, sometimes it's going to be a big dud, but we trust that those duds are going to be fewer and farther in between."

[Maynard13]

7 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

LOL

Fixed

LOL

[32EBoozer]

5 minutes ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

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[The Crusher]

8 minutes ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

You know how you know Zach Wilson is the real deal? 

Because I went from dreaming about Trevor Lawrence to now having this kid as my avatar. 

And it's hard for a player to win me over. Just ask Marcus Maye who I've nitpicked ever since passing on my favorite FSU RB Dalvin Cook 5 years ago ?

That was my second guess. 

[FidelioJet]

6 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I'm excited by his start too but this feels like a little homerism to me.

Under pressure? He's mostly had clean pockets. Consistency? He's made like 20 throws.

It's been a strong start but I'm not sure you can make these types of claims yet.

Yeah.  I'm as big a fan of the kid as anyone...

But this is all out of control.  He looked good, no doubt but this is all too much.

Truth is he did look bad in the Green and White - and undeservedly got beaten up for that - just like the praise is over the top.  Looking bad there tell me when he's going to be under real pressure with blitzing and a 1st string defense he's going to have more trouble.

Jet fans are setting themselves up for a major let down.  He has all the tools but it's going to take a couple of years to put this all together - not a couple of pre-season games.

[flgreen]

LOL

Don't know how that happened, don't know how to fix it.  Sooooooooooooooooooo  

[Defense Wins Championships]

12 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Yeah.  I'm as big a fan of the kid as anyone...

But this is all out of control.  He looked good, no doubt but this is all too much.

Truth is he did look bad in the Green and White - and undeservedly got beaten up for that - just like the praise is over the top.  Looking bad there tell me when he's going to be under real pressure with blitzing and a 1st string defense he's going to have more trouble.

Jet fans are setting themselves up for a major let down.  He has all the tools but it's going to take a couple of years to put this all together - not a couple of pre-season games.

Many of us (including myself) questioned his ability to perform against tougher competition than what he played against while @ BYU and backups or not; he's still destroying players who've made it to the NFL and never once have we witnessed a Jets QB look this good during preseason games (Rookie or not). 

And getting all 4 of Elijah Moore, Alijah Vera-Tucker,  Denzel Mims and Morgan Moses back will make him look even better. 

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I'm excited by his start too but this feels like a little homerism to me.

Under pressure? He's mostly had clean pockets. Consistency? He's made like 20 throws.

It's been a strong start but I'm not sure you can make these types of claims yet.

A little?  The article is completely little disingenuous.

Facing pressure?  What?  No.  Just because an extra defender was sent, doesnt mean pressure was created.  He's seen a defender in his face once and consequently, it was really the only ugly pass/play we've seen this preseason.  

He hasnt gotten any help?  Kroft scored on a 2 yard pass from 20 yards out.  He also went up and got a high ball throw over the middle of the field (not knocking it but that could be an ambulance ball with real defenders around).   The longest play he's connected on, was a broken play where Davis went uncovered on a wheel route (and, lets be real,  Zach was late to see it).

Consistency?  I'm not even.

The kid has looked extremely comfortable, lets just leave it that for now.  This burning desire to make definitive statement about him or any rookie for that matter is just bizarre. 

 

[Jet Blast]

I hope Max isn't charging you by the amount of space you consume on this board!

 

[Claymation]

1 hour ago, 32EBoozer said:

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I read that as Men Either, not that there is anything wrong with that.

[Warfish]

Quote

.....he has only played six offensive series and none of them were against a first-team defense.

This.

Quote

With that being said, it is still acceptable for Jets fans to have a good deal of excitement about Wilson’s start because of how he has gone about putting it together.

And this.

For me, tempered but material excitement and anticipation, with a strong desire to see more, in Week 1, against starters.

For me to not have any criticism of Wilson as yet, IMO, says alot.  I didn't want him, and I was ready to be critical of him.

The fact he's given me nothing to be critical of says alot about the quality of his preseason play so far, with the aforementioned caveats. 

[More Cowbell]

1 hour ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

You know how you know Zach Wilson is the real deal? 

Because I went from dreaming about Trevor Lawrence to now having this kid as my avatar. 

And it's hard for a player to win me over. Just ask Marcus Maye who I've nitpicked ever since passing on my favorite FSU RB Dalvin Cook 5 years ago ?

Who is your avatar next season? Might save us some time tanking for the wrong player again

[More Cowbell]

I have never seen so much made about ar rookie QB playing 2 qrts of preseason against 2nd and third string defenses. I'm glad he doesn't  suck, I will say that. Hope he can keep this rhythm he has developed with Davis going into the regular season but these two games really don't  tell you much. 

[Defense Wins Championships]

17 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

I have never seen so much made about ar rookie QB playing 2 qrts of preseason against 2nd and third string defenses. I'm glad he doesn't  suck, I will say that. Hope he can keep this rhythm he has developed with Davis going into the regular season but these two games really don't  tell you much. 

That's because we've never once witnessed a Jets QB throughout only "2 quarters" of play put up this type of statistical production (ever).

16/20 (80.0%), 191 Passing Yards (9.5 yards per pass attempt), 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 0 sacks, 0 fumbles, QB Rating of 120.7.

And coach Robert Saleh (a smart Football coach) disagrees with your preseason/backup evaluations too. 

So, is coach Robert Saleh upset these teams are not giving his rookie quarterback Zach Wilson a true look against an NFL defense?

“No, this is professional football,” Saleh said after Saturday’s win over the Packers. “You go tell those backups that they’re not capable of being starters. You guys know my conviction on Player A to Player Z all having the ability to play at that very high level and all they need is an opportunity. This is still professional football. These guys are professional athletes. They step on the field and they have tremendous pride in their work. And it’s another defense that he gets to see and a different character of a football team, just in terms of the way they present themselves. So I think he’s getting really good work. Call it what you want, but he’s still getting good work.”

I think he knows more about the importance of a Rookie QB performing lights out during preseason than you do (or me).

[UntouchableCrew]

1 hour ago, JiFapono said:

This burning desire to make definitive statement about him or any rookie for that matter is just bizarre. 

 

It's just hot take culture in the 24/7 news cycle. Declaring him a bust of a superstar gives people something to talk about.

[More Cowbell]

55 minutes ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

That's because we've never once witnessed a Jets QB throughout only "2 quarters" of play put up this type of statistical production (ever).

16/20 (80.0%), 191 Passing Yards (9.5 yards per pass attempt), 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 0 sacks, 0 fumbles, QB Rating of 120.7.

And coach Robert Saleh (a smart Football coach) disagrees with your preseason/backup evaluations too. 

So, is coach Robert Saleh upset these teams are not giving his rookie quarterback Zach Wilson a true look against an NFL defense?

“No, this is professional football,” Saleh said after Saturday’s win over the Packers. “You go tell those backups that they’re not capable of being starters. You guys know my conviction on Player A to Player Z all having the ability to play at that very high level and all they need is an opportunity. This is still professional football. These guys are professional athletes. They step on the field and they have tremendous pride in their work. And it’s another defense that he gets to see and a different character of a football team, just in terms of the way they present themselves. So I think he’s getting really good work. Call it what you want, but he’s still getting good work.”

I think he knows more about the importance of a Rookie QB performing lights out during preseason than you do (or me).

And you believe that crap? 

Hey, there is some beach front property in Montana I'd like to talk to you about next. 

That was total coach talk trying to instill confidence into his QB. What did you think he was going to say? Well yeah Zack was facing a bunch of guys that might be working at UPS in few weeks so we really don't  know what to make of his performance? 

[Larz]

I ain’t falling for no banana in the tailpipe. 
 

let’s check back after 8 starts 

[Defense Wins Championships]

44 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

And you believe that crap? 

Hey, there is some beach front property in Montana I'd like to talk to you about next. 

That was total coach talk trying to instill confidence into his QB. What did you think he was going to say? Well yeah Zack was facing a bunch of guys that might be working at UPS in few weeks so we really don't  know what to make of his performance? 

Here. 

Zach Wilson: 2 games. 

16/20 (80.0%), 191 Passing Yards (9.5 yards per pass attempt), 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 0 sacks, 0 fumbles and a beautiful QB Rating of 120.7.

(Rookie QB or not).

Kyle Trask: 2 games. 

17/41 (41.4%), 166 passing yards (4.04 yards per pass attempt), 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 sacks, 1 fumble and an atrocious QB Rating of 36.1.

Would you be more happy if Zach Wilson performed like Kyle Trask rather than Zach Wilson during "meaningless" preseason football or something? 

You'd become one of the very first posters to begin criticizing Zach Wilson if he looked like absolute Trask crap (we all would). 

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

It's just hot take culture in the 24/7 news cycle. Declaring him a bust of a superstar gives people something to talk about.

This and I think people are just desperate to say I told you so.  I should know, I'm one of those people but I'm at least reasonable about it!

[More Cowbell]

25 minutes ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

Here. 

Zach Wilson: 2 games. 

16/20 (80.0%), 191 Passing Yards (9.5 yards per pass attempt), 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 0 sacks, 0 fumbles and a beautiful QB Rating of 120.7.

(Rookie QB or not).

Kyle Trask: 2 games. 

17/41 (41.4%), 166 passing yards (4.04 yards per pass attempt), 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 sacks, 1 fumble and an atrocious QB Rating of 36.1.

Would you be more happy if Zach Wilson performed like Kyle Trask rather than Zach Wilson during "meaningless" preseason football or something? 

You'd become one of the very first posters to begin criticizing Zach Wilson if he looked like absolute Trask crap (we all would). 

You see, this is why I find your posts for the most part superfluous.  The comparison  to Trask was totally not needed because Zack and Trask are on different teams facing different competition. Also i said I am happy he doesn't suck but there os not much you can take from such a small sample against  sub-par talent. You want to believe Saleh when he is telling you that the guys his QB is lighting up are top level competition,  that is up to you. 

[genot]

2 hours ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

That's because we've never once witnessed a Jets QB throughout only "2 quarters" of play put up this type of statistical production (ever).

16/20 (80.0%), 191 Passing Yards (9.5 yards per pass attempt), 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 0 sacks, 0 fumbles, QB Rating of 120.7.

And coach Robert Saleh (a smart Football coach) disagrees with your preseason/backup evaluations too. 

So, is coach Robert Saleh upset these teams are not giving his rookie quarterback Zach Wilson a true look against an NFL defense?

“No, this is professional football,” Saleh said after Saturday’s win over the Packers. “You go tell those backups that they’re not capable of being starters. You guys know my conviction on Player A to Player Z all having the ability to play at that very high level and all they need is an opportunity. This is still professional football. These guys are professional athletes. They step on the field and they have tremendous pride in their work. And it’s another defense that he gets to see and a different character of a football team, just in terms of the way they present themselves. So I think he’s getting really good work. Call it what you want, but he’s still getting good work.”

I think he knows more about the importance of a Rookie QB performing lights out during preseason than you do (or me).

Nothing personal, but....  

[kevinc855]

anyone check in on Shaun King recently? 

https://jetsxfactor.com/2021/08/13/former-nfl-qb-kellen-mond-kyle-trask-better-than-zach-wilson/

[Defense Wins Championships]

15 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

 You want to believe Saleh when he is telling you that the guys his QB is lighting up are top level competition,  that is up to you. 

• “No, this is professional football".

•  “You go tell those backups that they’re not capable of being starters".

• "You guys know my conviction on Player A to Player Z all having the ability to play at that very high level and all they need is an opportunity". 

• "This is still professional football. These guys are professional athletes. They step on the field and they have tremendous pride in their work". 

Which parts is he lying about if you don't believe him? 

[jetstream23]

@Charlie Brown put it best in another thread. Zach Wilson just seems to play easy.

That’s what I’ve seen so far. A guy who looks comfortable, looks like he knows what he’s doing and has been playing at the NFL level for 10 years. I don’t need to see highlight throws in the preseason, I want to see a guy who does what you would expect a veteran to do, run the offense and move the ball without making mistakes. That has been more confidence-inspiring than anything. He just looks prepared and ready.

[More Cowbell]

37 minutes ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

• “No, this is professional football".

•  “You go tell those backups that they’re not capable of being starters".

• "You guys know my conviction on Player A to Player Z all having the ability to play at that very high level and all they need is an opportunity". 

• "This is still professional football. These guys are professional athletes. They step on the field and they have tremendous pride in their work". 

Which parts is he lying about if you don't believe him? 

 

All of it except for the part about it being pro football. That was the only nugget of truth even thought in the context it means nothing

[Claymation]

2 hours ago, Larz said:

I ain’t falling for no banana in the tailpipe. 
 

let’s check back after 8 starts 

You're not gonna fall for the banana in the tailpipe? It should be more natural, brother. It should flow out, like this - 'Look, man, I ain't fallin' for no banana in my tailpipe!

[Jet Nut]

6 hours ago, flgreen said:

It’s okay to be excited about Zach Wilson’s impressive start to the preseason

No, its not.  

We've been told not to get excited.  Its preseason.